Fernie Garcia

Angelo notes that Hyder Amil is an aggressive striker with a solid chin and power, but he can end up in bad positions on the ground and gave up five takedowns on the Contender Series. Fernie Garcia is on short notice and has lost three in a row, but his losses have come to grapplers. Angelo would pick Garcia with a full camp, but given the short notice, he leans toward Amil. He expects Amil to be a sizable favorite once odds are released.

Big Brady picks Hyder Amil to win by decision. He notes that Amil's poor cardio in his Contender Series fight was due to defending 23 takedowns, but this matchup is completely different as Garcia is a boxer who won't wrestle. He likes Amil's forward pressure, volume, and power advantage, and thinks Garcia is tough but coming in on short notice up a weight class.

Cody picks Amil but is not confident. He notes Amil is 33 with few fights and unimpressive wins. Garcia is moving up on short notice and is 0-3 in the UFC, but has shown durability. Cody thinks Amil should win but sees many red flags. He is not planning to bet it.

Amil has a significant size and strength advantage, with a 3-inch height and reach edge. He is an all-gas-no-breaks grappler who should be able to take Garcia down and grind out a decision. Garcia is on a three-fight losing streak and has struggled against better grapplers. Amil's grappling alone should be enough to get him into the rankings.

Paul leans toward Garcia as a dog, noting Amil's unimpressive tape and Garcia's durability. He thinks Garcia has never been knocked out and has shown good grappling defense. Paul is waiting to see the weigh-ins but is tempted by the dog price.

Angelo believes Nakamura is a high-level wrestler with powerful striking and should dominate Garcia. He notes that Nakamura is a -700 favorite, but he personally avoids betting such heavy favorites due to the risk, citing examples like Valentina Shevchenko losing as a huge favorite. He thinks Nakamura wins 99 out of 100 times but won't lay the price.

Big Brady is very high on Rinya Nakamura, calling him a future star with excellent wrestling, grappling, and power. He sees this as a terrible matchup for Fernie Garcia, who was dominated by a lesser wrestler in Brady Hiestand. He expects Nakamura to finish the fight in the first round, whether by knockout or submission, and criticizes the matchmaking.

Cody is high on Nakamura as a top prospect with elite wrestling and improving striking. He expects Nakamura to dominate Garcia, who has shown poor takedown defense. Cody likes the submission prop at plus 275, noting Nakamura's grappling pedigree.

Daniel picks Rinya Nakamura, citing his Olympic-level wrestling and power. He notes that Nakamura can fall back on his wrestling if the striking gets tough, and that Garcia is a liability on the ground. He mentions that Garcia has heavy hands but low output and poor takedown defense. He is confident Nakamura wins, though he notes that Nakamura sometimes gets clipped standing.

James is confident Nakamura wins but does not bet due to the short odds. He notes Nakamura is a brutal round one finisher but warns that the fight could go to decision if Nakamura wrestles. He sees Garcia as a tough guy who can survive, and considers the over 1.5 rounds at +150 as a potential play, though he ultimately passes.

The host highlights Nakamura's wrestling background and finishing ability, noting he has finished all but one opponent. He expects Nakamura to take Garcia down easily, as Garcia has struggled with wrestlers before (e.g., Brady Hiestand). The host predicts a finish within the first two rounds and likes the under 2.5 rounds prop.

Paul agrees Nakamura is a huge favorite and a setup fight by the UFC. He notes Nakamura's wrestling and physicality will be too much for Garcia. Paul expects a win but is cautious about the price, suggesting a decision or submission.

Angelo gives a slight lean to Fernie Garcia, acknowledging that Garcia is the more technical fighter and uses wrestling better than Newson. However, he worries that Garcia's contender series knockout might make him overconfident in striking exchanges. He hopes Garcia sticks to a wrestling game plan to secure a win.

Big Brady picks Journey Newson to win by decision as an underdog. He believes the line is off because Garcia is getting the contender series hype. Newson has fought tougher competition (Ricardo Ramos, Randy Costa) and is well-rounded with power and a BJJ black belt. Garcia is a good wrestler but has low power and is hittable. Brady thinks the fight will be close on the feet, and Newson's experience gives him the edge. He expects Newson to win a competitive decision.

Cody picks Journey Newson as his third underdog. He notes that Garcia has been in many split decisions and lacks finishing ability. Newson has power and could hurt Garcia if they exchange. Cody acknowledges the unknowns due to Newson's layoff but sees value at +130.

Daniel Levi picks Fernie Garcia, citing his durability and Mexican warrior spirit. He thinks Garcia can eat Newson's best shots and outlast him. He is not confident and does not like the price, so he does not bet. He notes Newson is a liability to get dropped.

The host believes Journey Newson is being disrespected as the underdog. He notes Newson's good jiu-jitsu and takedown ability, and expects him to take the fight to the ground to counter Fernie Garcia's striking pressure. He criticizes Garcia's close decision fights and mediocre competition. He predicts Newson wins via decision or submission.

Paul leans towards Journey Newson as an underdog. He notes that Newson kept it competitive against Ricardo Ramos and has power. Paul thinks Garcia is a boxer by trade but this is MMA, and Newson's power could be a factor. He is not fully confident but prefers Newson.