Kazula Vargas

Angelo picks Rodrigo Vargas (Kazula Vargas) with a 51-49 edge, citing Paddy's poor chin and tendency to get hit. He notes that Vargas hits harder than Paddy's last opponent and is less hittable. He acknowledges Paddy's superior ground game but thinks if Paddy stands and trades, his chin will be tested. He calls it the hardest pick on the card and says the odds are crazy (Paddy at -500).

Big Brady picks Paddy Pimblett to win by submission. He notes Vargas has poor takedown defense (25%) and is content to stay on his back, which won't work against a black belt like Pimblett. Brady also mentions Vargas is 36 and has fought weak competition. He sees Pimblett getting takedowns and finishing on the mat, possibly late.

Cody picks Vargas as a dog, citing Paddy's poor striking defense and chin-up stance. He thinks Vargas has better stand-up and leg kicks, and notes Vargas's sneaky guillotine. He believes Paddy's hype is overblown and that Vargas can win if it stays standing.

Daniel Levi picks Paddy Pimblett confidently, having bet him earlier at -320 in a parlay. He views Vargas as a sacrificial lamb, too slow and hittable, and believes Pimblett will finish him. Levi notes that Vargas's wins are questionable (e.g., against Zubaira Tukhugov) and that he lacks the tools to exploit Pimblett's flaws. He expects a highlight-reel KO or submission, as Pimblett is motivated by showmanship and stardom.

Pimblett should use his grappling to dominate Vargas, who was taken down by Rongzhu. Pimblett has good top pressure and submissions, and Vargas won't be ready for that approach. The fight doesn't go to decision at -270 is a good parlay piece. Pimblett isn't top-10 material, but this is a squash match. I'm picking Pimblett via second-round submission.

Paul picks Paddy, arguing that Vargas is old and has poor grappling and takedown defense. He believes Paddy's grappling will be the difference, and that even if it stays standing, Paddy has better volume and cardio. He acknowledges the price is high but thinks Paddy wins.

Big Brady picks Rong Zhu to win by second-round knockout. He believes Rong Zhu is a much more technical striker with harder hits, and that Vargas is wild and low-output. He also notes Rong Zhu has good ground and pound if he takes Vargas down. He expects a finish because both fighters have high finish rates.

Cody leans toward Zhu, noting his youth and striking. He acknowledges Vargas's wrestling but thinks Zhu's aggression and cardio will be factors. He is not confident due to the lack of tape on Zhu and the -255 price. He passes on betting.

Daniel picks Rong Zhu, believing he is the best Chinese prospect on the card and that Kazula Vargas is not UFC caliber. He notes Zhu's length and aggression, and expects him to land better shots. He is not sure about the -250 line but still picks Zhu to win.

I think Rong Zhu has the most potential among the Chinese debutants. He's well-rounded with solid grappling and striking, and he's only 21 with 20 pro fights. Vargas is durable but limited; he's been finished only by Jose Caceres. I expect the fight to stay standing and Zhu to outpoint him, possibly finishing late. The prop I like is Zhu by KO at +135, but I'm not investing serious money due to the unknowns.

Paul picks Vargas as a dog, citing Zhu's takedown defense issues and Vargas's wrestling. He notes Zhu's youth and potential but thinks Vargas can exploit the grappling gap. He likes the plus money and thinks the line should be closer to a pick 'em. He also mentions that Zhu is on the card because of the Chinese market.