Bogdan Grad

"The Unleashed"
1-2
Record
Age / DOB 30
(Sep 28, 1995)
Height 5' 8"
Weight 145 lbs.
Reach 70.0"
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages
4.06 Sig. Strikes / Min
51.0% Sig. Strike Acc.
5.06 Absorbed / Min
49.0% Strike Defense
4.22 TD Avg / 15 min
40.0% TD Accuracy
75.0% TD Defense
0.0 Sub. / Fight
Win Methods (1)
KO/TKO 1
Submission 0
Decision 0
Loss Methods (2)
KO/TKO 1
Submission 0
Decision 1

Fight History

Result / Opponent
Event & Date
Method/Round
Links
Comments
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bogdan Grad 0 7 of 13 53% 17 of 24 4 of 7 57% 0 0 3:55
Luke Riley 1 14 of 23 60% 20 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bogdan Grad 0 6 of 9 66% 16 of 20 4 of 7 57% 0 0 3:55
Luke Riley 0 3 of 7 42% 8 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Bogdan Grad 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Luke Riley 1 11 of 16 68% 12 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bogdan Grad 7 of 13 53% 6 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 5 2 of 2 4 of 6
Luke Riley 14 of 23 60% 11 of 19 1 of 2 2 of 2 4 of 11 1 of 1 9 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bogdan Grad 6 of 9 66% 6 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 2 of 2 4 of 6
Luke Riley 3 of 7 42% 1 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Bogdan Grad 1 of 4 25% 0 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Luke Riley 11 of 16 68% 10 of 14 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 9 of 11
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Bogdan Grad vs. Luke Riley
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Riley (-275); Grad (+225)

Round 1
At long last, the prelims come to a head with a featherweight clash of neophytes with the promotion. Relatively speaking, the UFC veteran Grad (15-3, 1-1 UFC) with two appearances and a grainy Fight Finder photo—we will work on that—has finished 80% of his wins inside the distance. He meets surging Liverpudlian Riley (11-0, 0-0 UFC), an unbeaten teammate of potential upcoming title challenger Paddy Pimblett. Referee Marc Goddard cracks his knuckles ahead of this pairing, one that kicks off as the athletes opt to touch ‘em up.
Grad rushes right after Riley to start the round, spinning his way in but not committing to anything. As Riley circles away, Grad chases him with a spinning wheel kick that misses the mark. Riley strafes to the side, and he stops as Grad charges him to get hold of a single. Riley grabs the fence to stay on his feet, and Grad pulls him away from it to ground him in the open cage away from the wall. It is a bit of stalemate once they hit the ground, with Riley acquitting himself well on the mat not taking much fire.
Riley eventually works to his feet, and Grad is on him like a cheap suit. Grad wraps up Riley from behind and seeks a mat return, but the Liverpool native scrapes Grad off his back and turns it to the wall. Grad rips punches to the body, and Riley responds with a few knees. Grad slashes with an elbow that he uses to commit to a single, and he drags the undefeated man to the floor. Grad lets Riley back up so he can get off another standing elbow. When Rile takes a second to reset, Grad bull-rushes him hunting for a single. Grad switches from one leg to the other in pursuit of the takedown, and Riley checks his oil and is dragged to his seat. “The Unleashed” unleashes a flurry of swinging punches with Riley on his seat, only stopping when the bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Grad
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Grad
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Grad

Round 2
Grad offers a fist bump and then follows with a head kick. They both wing hooks at one another, and they miss the mark wildly.
Riley winds up and blasts Grad with a left hand that sends him cinematically twirling down to the mat in a heap. Riley leaps on top of the grounded man and starts battering him with his fists, and he knocks Grad in and out of consciousness as he bludgeons the Austrian.
As Grad’s lights go out, Goddard jumps in to halt the fight. Grad tries to get up, but he cannot stand on his own power and Goddard saves him from crashing and burning. What a comeback for the still-undefeated man from Liverpool, with his team including the aforementioned Pimblett going bonkers in his corner for his triumphant UFC debut—by knockout, as is his custom.

The Official Result
Luke Riley def. Bogdan Grad R2 0:30 via KO (Punches)
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Nov 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Angelo leans Luke Riley over Bogdan Grad, citing Riley's speed and cleaner striking. He notes Grad has a wrestling advantage but Riley has shown good takedown defense in every fight. Angelo warns that Cage Warriors prospects can be overhyped, so he's cautious but picks Riley due to speed being the biggest factor.

"I'm going to lean Luke. He's just faster, cleaner striker."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Big Brady picks Luke Riley by third-round knockout, impressed by his power and striking. He notes Grad's hittability and questionable chin, and expects Riley to find the chin as Grad slows down. He acknowledges Grad's grappling path but doesn't think he'll fight smart.

third round knockout
"Give me Luke Riley to win this fight. I'll take him to win this fight by third round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Cody picks Luke Riley, believing his volume and cardio will overwhelm Grad. He notes that Grad has poor takedown defense and tends to lose position. Cody thinks Riley can work his way back into the fight if taken down and finish via knockout.

"Riley for me. Riley by knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Nov 21, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Luke Riley

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Riley. He notes that Riley is speedy, crafty, and scrappy, and if Grad shows any weakness on the feet or fails to get takedowns, Riley will build a brutal assault. He mentions Riley's age (26) and potential to develop physicality. He also notes that Riley got hurt in a previous fight but showed inexperience.

"I'm with you. I pretty much agree across the board."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Nov 18, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Riley is a nasty striker with good takedown defense, but the odds are too wide. Grad has grappling opportunities and could win by submission or decision. Riley by TKO is the prediction, but a sprinkle on Grad is considered.

sprinkle on Grad at +210
"I'll go uh Riley by TKO, but if I'm putting my money anywhere, it would be on the Grod side of things."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Paul leans towards Luke Riley but is tempted by Bogdan Grad as an underdog. He notes Riley's all-action style and gas tank, but acknowledges Grad's wrestling could be a problem. Paul ultimately sides with Riley due to his volume and finishing ability.

"I'm so tempted to take Bogdan grad, but that's one of the underdogs this week that I'm kind of on the fence about."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Luke Riley

The MMA Guru picks Luke Riley over Bogdan Grad, believing Riley's size and striking will be too much. He notes Grad's struggles in the clinch against Naimov. He expects Riley to rip body shots and finish by TKO in the second or third round, though he acknowledges Grad is dangerous early.

second or third-round TKO
"I'm going to go with Luke Riley getting this one done by third-round TKO, late in the second-round TKO, maybe."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Nov 21, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Luke Riley

Zane picks Riley but acknowledges it's a fight he might lose. He notes that Grad is a high-motor, experienced fighter who can test Riley physically. He thinks Riley is faster, more precise, and smarter on the feet, and that Grad is slow and awkward with bad shot selection. He worries about Riley's physicality and takedown defense but believes Riley can fight his way back if not finished early.

Odds: Riley opened -150, now -250; Grad opened +130, now +210. Zane comments that any wider than that is probably too bad.
"I think I'll pick him here because I do really think Rod is like a, can you be in the UFC level of tests? And I think Riley is capable of passing that and being crafty and creative enough."
Decision R3 5:00
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Muhammad Naimov 0 18 of 54 33% 70 of 119 1 of 3 33% 1 0 2:53
Bogdan Grad 0 31 of 64 48% 49 of 88 3 of 10 30% 0 0 5:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Muhammad Naimov 0 10 of 22 45% 24 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:23
Bogdan Grad 0 15 of 30 50% 23 of 39 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:04
2 Muhammad Naimov 0 6 of 21 28% 12 of 29 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:00
Bogdan Grad 0 10 of 21 47% 15 of 27 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:01
3 Muhammad Naimov 0 2 of 11 18% 34 of 51 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:30
Bogdan Grad 0 6 of 13 46% 11 of 22 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Muhammad Naimov 18 of 54 33% 11 of 45 3 of 3 4 of 6 16 of 50 2 of 4 0 of 0
Bogdan Grad 31 of 64 48% 7 of 30 14 of 19 10 of 15 18 of 46 13 of 18 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Muhammad Naimov 10 of 22 45% 6 of 17 1 of 1 3 of 4 9 of 19 1 of 3 0 of 0
Bogdan Grad 15 of 30 50% 3 of 12 6 of 9 6 of 9 5 of 18 10 of 12 0 of 0
2 Muhammad Naimov 6 of 21 28% 3 of 17 2 of 2 1 of 2 5 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0
Bogdan Grad 10 of 21 47% 3 of 11 4 of 6 3 of 4 10 of 19 0 of 2 0 of 0
3 Muhammad Naimov 2 of 11 18% 2 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Bogdan Grad 6 of 13 46% 1 of 7 4 of 4 1 of 2 3 of 9 3 of 4 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Muhammadjon Naimov vs. Bogdan Grad
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Naimov (-230), Grad (+190)

Round 1
What was once a stadium-drawing attraction has become old hat for Tajikistan’s Naimov (12-3, 4-1 UFC), who is already taking his sixth walk to the Octagon since debuting in the middle of 2023. The man known as “Hillman” will take one of the few other Austrian talents on the roster in the form of Grad (15-2, 1-0 UFC). Drawing the charge for this featherweight contest is referee Marc Goddard, who stands back to let the fighters come together and touch ‘em up. Grad is fired up and jittery, missing with a front kick and slapping the front leg with his shin. Naimov responds with his own low kick and sways out of the way of an overhand right. Grad reaches him with a rear low kick, and he lands a second as Naimov is changing stances. Grad drops his hands and engages, kicking his man in the side and getting tagged with a right hand over the top. Grad just misses a spinning wheel kick effort, and the crowd starts chanting for Naimov. Naimov says two can play that game and zings Grad with his own wheel kick, shaking Grad up badly. Grad musters up every bit of his willpower to rush forward, still wobbled, and tackle the Tajik fighter to the mat. Naimov gets back to his feet but eats an elbow in the process, and he breaks out. Naimov strings together a combination ending with an elbow, and Grad is tough as nails as he rushes forward. Naimov catches him on the way forward with a left hand, and he hops back to dodge a wheel kick. Naimov counters with a back fist, and as he rushes forward, Grad clips him with a punch that knocks his mouthguard out. With Grad pushing Naimov to the fence, Goddard replaces the fighter’s mouthpiece without needing to break the action up. The two fighters jockey for position, and Naimov drives a knee up the middle and eats an elbow right before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Naimov
Christian Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Naimov
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Naimov

Round 2
The fighters tap glove before getting after it, where they trade high kicks as Grad roars at his foe. Grad whiffs on a jumping kick, and he swipes a left hand behind the ear that appears to destabilize his adversary. Naimov backs off, avoiding a wheel kick and tripping himself up on the outer gate area. Grad marches him down, trying another spin but settling down with a body kick that pounds his man in the side. They kick at the same time, and Grad nods at him and rips unloads with a left hand around the guard. Naimov pays him back with interest in the form of a one-two, and he nearly bites on a faked takedown effort. Grad spins with a kick that misses, setting him up for a double-leg takedown try. Grad takes Naimov from behind as he leans him against the wall, slugging him in the side of the head once before Naimov turns himself around. Grad drops down low for a takedown, and he is shut down for it. Naimov elbows to break off, and he spins with a back kick that lands on Grad’s hip. Grad walks forward to deliver a kick on the inside of the lead leg, and he backs off to dodge the head kick but is not out of range from a one-two that tags him. Naimov circles around until settling down, as Grad looks for a rushing up-elbow and shoots for a takedown. Naimov latches onto the neck with a guillotine choke, only for Grad to switch to the other side and laugh off the submission. Grad goes after the double, and he lands it with five seconds left. The round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Grad
Christian Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Grad
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Grad

Round 3
Grad is fired up to start off the round, rifling off kicks from both legs. Naimov spins with a back elbow that clips the side of the head, and his spinning wheel kick stuns Grad but does not put him down. Grade gathers his thoughts and shoots for a double, ultimately putting Naimov down to the ground as he redoubles his effort. The Austrian gets both hooks in, and Naimov stands up even with Grad on his back. Naimov grabs hold of Grad’s foot to spin him around, and he lowers himself down to the mat to establish top position. Grad throws his legs up in pursuit of a triangle choke, and Naimov shoves the legs over to shut it down. Grad complains to Goddard about something, and Goddard asks them for more activity as Naimov is in a holding pattern. Grad sits up for a moment, and Goddard stands them up with 90 seconds to spare. Grad marches his man down, digs a left to the liver and shoots for a double. When stopped, Grad goes high with a clacking elbow. Grad hangs on tight and changes levels, kneeing Naimov in the gut but not able to keep him there. Naimov splits with 30 seconds left, and he says hello against with a spinning wheel kick. Grad greets him back with a head kick that brushes the beard, and he considers a spin but bails on it. Grad wants a brawl, and Naimov will not oblige as the fight ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Naimov (29-28 Naimov)
Christian Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Naimov (29-28 Naimov)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Naimov (29-28 Naimov)

The Official Result
Muhammadjon Naimov def. Bogdan Grad via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Muhammad Naimov

Angelo picks Muhammad Naimov, but with reservations. He thinks Naimov is slightly better everywhere and will win a close decision, but notes that Naimov doesn't chase finishes and may coast. He acknowledges Bogdan's finishing ability and the risk of a finish if Bogdan's cardio holds. He fades Naimov for fantasy due to low scoring potential.

Mentions Bogdan Grad at $7,400 as a good price if he has cardio; predicts decision.
"I think Naimov wins this fight. I think Naimov wins a close fight just like his last one."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Muhammad Naimov

Big Brady picks Muhammad Naimov, citing his power as a key factor. He notes that Bogdan Grad absorbs a high volume of strikes (8 per minute) and that Naimov has knockout power, having slept Jamie Mullarkey and hurt others. Brady thinks Naimov is more durable and has takedown defense to keep the fight standing. He predicts Naimov wins by first-round knockout, though he acknowledges Grad has more heart.

first round knockout
"I like Naimov to win. I'm going to take him to win this fight by first round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Muhammad Naimov

Connor picks Naimov, agreeing that Naimov's athleticism and strength will overwhelm Grad, who is not strong in tie-ups and relies on outlasting opponents. He notes that Naimov's mistakes and over-aggression won't be punished by Grad, who lacks the athleticism to capitalize. He believes Naimov will be able to impose his will and win the fight.

"I think he can beat Bogdan Grad. Yeah. That's not a lot of deafness to Bogdan Grad's name, is there? It's not an athleticism that's going to take over in situations."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Bogdan Grad

The host doesn't understand the love for Naimov outside of power punching. He thinks if Naimov can't get Grad out early, Grad will push a pace and pressure that Naimov can't keep up with, leading to a submission in the second or third round.

"I never understand the big love on Naimov outside of the power punching that he brings to the table. But if he can't get Grad out of there early, I'm expecting Grad to push a pace and pressure that Naimov will not be able to keep up with that will eventually lead to Grad getting a submission in the second or third round."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Muhammad Naimov

The MMA Guru picks Muhammad Naimov, criticizing Bogdan Grad's lackluster performances. He notes Naimov's power and ability to manhandle opponents, and despite a loss to Felipe Lima, he sees Naimov as the better fighter. He predicts a dominant decision or first-round finish.

Naimov wins by decision or first-round finish
"I'm going to go with Muhammad Nimov here. I think he's still good. He's still very good."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Muhammad Naimov

Zane picks Naimov, citing his superior athleticism and physicality compared to Grad. He notes that Grad is a pace fighter who relies on accumulation, but lacks strength in tie-ups and is foot-slow. Naimov, despite being reckless, is strong and powerful in the clinch and will maul Grad. He draws a parallel to Rębecki vs Orolbai, where the more brutish fighter won.

"I got to pick Naimov and that, you know, for defining it on the same characteristics, you got to take the same kind of winner. Yep. Agreed."
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bogdan Grad 0 46 of 66 69% 59 of 86 3 of 8 37% 0 0 4:18
Lucas Alexander 0 34 of 52 65% 47 of 71 0 of 1 0% 0 1 2:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bogdan Grad 0 5 of 9 55% 13 of 20 2 of 7 28% 0 0 1:17
Lucas Alexander 0 15 of 23 65% 28 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 1 2:13
2 Bogdan Grad 0 41 of 57 71% 46 of 66 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:01
Lucas Alexander 0 19 of 29 65% 19 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bogdan Grad 46 of 66 69% 42 of 60 1 of 2 3 of 4 9 of 18 3 of 4 34 of 44
Lucas Alexander 34 of 52 65% 19 of 37 7 of 7 8 of 8 29 of 45 3 of 4 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bogdan Grad 5 of 9 55% 5 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 1 4 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0
Lucas Alexander 15 of 23 65% 10 of 18 1 of 1 4 of 4 11 of 17 2 of 3 2 of 3
2 Bogdan Grad 41 of 57 71% 37 of 52 1 of 2 3 of 3 5 of 10 2 of 3 34 of 44
Lucas Alexander 19 of 29 65% 9 of 19 6 of 6 4 of 4 18 of 28 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Lucas Alexander (148.5: Missed Weight) vs. Bogdan Grad

Round 1
Featherweights are next to the stage, as Alexander (8-4, 1-2 UFC) collides with Grad (14-2, 0-0 UFC) at 145 pounds. Kerry Hatley serves as the third man in the cage. Grad immediately pushes forward and walks into a few punches and leg kicks. He shoots on the hips, then settles into the clinch. Alexander turns him into the cage, and they jockey for position. They separate. Grad presses forward. Alexander narrowly misses on a flying knee. Overhand right from Grad, followed by a short left hook. He threatens with a single-leg and uses it to sneak behind Alexander. Grad feeds the Brazilian knees to the legs. Elbows from Alexander, who counters a takedown into top position. Ground-and-pound ensues. Alexander now hovering above his counterpart. Grad kicks at the knees from the butt-scoot position. He scrambles to his feet and secures a double-leg takedown. Alexander sweeps and again stands above his opponent, kicking at the legs. A minute to go. Grad stands. Multi-punch combos from Alexander. Alexander clips Grad with an elbow on the way in, shrugs off a takedown attempt and scrambles into a position from which he can strike.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Alexander
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Alexander
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Alexander

Round 2
Grad charges forward, and they exchange leg kicks. Alexander circles off the cage. Powerful leg kick from Alexander sits down Grad. Sharp one-two from the Brazilian, then another. Alexander snaps back Grad’s head with an uppercut. Not going well for Grad. Alexander cutting loose with two-, three- and four-punch bursts. Grad counters a leg kick into a takedown and sets up in half guard, then progresses briefly to full mount. Alexander scrambles. Grad settles back in mount and gets his ground-and-pound in gear. Alexander reclaims half guard, but the tide seems to have turned, at least for now. Elbows and hammerfists from Grad.
Back to full mount. Alexander fading here. Crushing elbow from Grad and another. Punches fall in bunches, with Hatley hovering overhead. More unanswered punches from Grad, and the veteran referee intervenes
.

The Official Result
Bogdan Grad def. Lucas Alexander—TKO (Punches) 4:22 R2
Expert Picks (4)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 26, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Bogdan Grad

Angelo picks Bogdan Grad because of his well-rounded skills, methodical approach, and high finishing rate (11 stoppages in 14 wins). He notes that Lucas Alexander is dangerous but coming off a KO loss to a low-level opponent. He believes Grad's control and pace will be mistaken for inability to finish, but Grad finds finishes without being reckless.

"I am picking Bogden grad here Lucas Alexander is somebody who can be finished I do think Lucas is good though and Lucas can be dangerous I'm going Bogden"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jan 27, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Lucas Alexander

Big Brady likes Lucas Alexander's striking and thinks he trains with good guys. He notes Alexander has been submitted three times and has questionable takedown defense, but believes Alexander will piece up Bogdan Grad across three rounds. Grad is tough and has heart but is a walking punching bag. Brady would have liked Alexander more at +170 but thinks pick 'em is about accurate.

"I'm leaning Alexander here I don't think grad's gonna have a ton of success with the wrestling maybe he can mix in a takedown here or there but I do think it's going to be Alexander just pretty much piecing up grad across three rounds"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Lucas Alexander

Alexander's Muay Thai striking and ability to fight from both stances will allow him to pick apart Grad's erratic style. Grad's explosivity and grappling may cause early trouble, but Alexander's technical striking and work off the back foot should secure a decision win.

"Alexander fighting from both stances and well off of his back foot will do a good enough job in terms of striking straight down the pipe against the more erratic style of Grad and that will lead to him picking him apart and winning this fight on the scorecards."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Bogdan Grad

The MMA Guru picks Bogdan Grad, believing he is good enough on the feet to hang with Lucas Alexander and will have a takedown threat advantage. He notes Alexander is coming off a first-round TKO loss and has been out for over a year. He thinks Grad can get the job done early.

"I'm actually going to go with Bogdan grad... I think the takedown threat's going to be there and I think it's in advantage of him"