Diyar Nurgozhay

Angelo calls Diyar a 'hittable, loser, bum' based on his notes from previous fights, and says he won't be fooled again. He expects Diyar to get slowed down, taken down, and submitted. He picks Rafael Tobias confidently.

Big Brady picks Rafael Tobias over Diyar Nurgozhay. He is extremely low on Nurgozhay, citing his weight miss, poor performances, terrible chin, and awful ground game (getting Ezekiel choked and nearly guillotined). Tobias is a 22-year-old debutant with good striking power and a BJJ black belt. Brady expects Tobias to take Nurgozhay down and submit him easily, predicting a first-round submission.

Cody picks Tobias but with caution, citing his grappling advantage but poor striking defense. He notes Nurgozhay's lack of grappling and Tobias' submission skills. He expects Tobias to win by submission if he uses his grappling.

Connor picks Tobias because Nurgozhay has shown a tendency to flinch and get hurt when pressured, as seen in his loss to Sultebaev. Tobias is a pressure fighter who swings with power, and Connor believes he can replicate that performance. He notes that Nurgozhay is a counter puncher who doesn't want to be tested.

Daniel Vreeland confidently picks Rafael Tobias, citing his momentum from Contender Series and confidence. He notes that Diyar Nurgozhay has struggled in the UFC, missing weight and getting submitted. Vreeland believes Tobias's aggression and confidence will be too much for Nurgozhay.

James picks Rafael Tobias, noting his youth, improving skills, and grappling advantage. He highlights Nurgozhay's poor jiu-jitsu and tendency to quit under pressure, while Tobias looks composed and powerful. James expects Tobias to win inside the distance, likely by submission or knockout in round one.

Tobias is more ready for UFC-level competition than Nurgozhay. He has cleaner striking and good takedown defense. Nurgozhay has been sloppy and hesitant, leaving openings. Tobias should find a submission victory, likely by rear-naked choke.

Paul also picks Tobias, noting his grappling ability and Nurgozhay's poor takedown defense. He expects a finish, possibly by submission. He bets the under 1.5 rounds.

The MMA Guru picks Rafael Tobias, impressed by his ability to choose finishes on the Contender Series. He notes Nurgozhay's physical tic (Tourette's) that may be a distraction, and Tobias's nasty left hook counter. He predicts a first-round TKO.

Angelo picks Diyar Nurgozhay despite calling him a 'hitable loser bum' in his raw notes from his last fight. He chalks that up to anger and frustration, and notes that he has seen Diyar win in the UFC octagon. He thinks Uran Satybaldiev doesn't like striking and that Diyar is the better prospect. He is not fully confident but goes with Diyar.

Big Brady picks Diyar Nurgozhay as an underdog despite concerns about his weight miss and poor performance in his last fight. He acknowledges Nurgozhay has solid striking, a nasty headkick, and takedown upside, and notes that Satybaldiev can be taken down and controlled. However, he is not betting on the fight due to Nurgozhay's weight miss and the line movement. He predicts a decision win for Nurgozhay.

The host believes there is recency bias against Nurgozhay, who did not look himself last time. He expects Nurgozhay to utilize his grapple-heavy approach and stay away from Satybaldiev's aggressive striking, as Satybaldiev does not have a great game off his back. The host predicts Nurgozhay will keep the fight on the ground and win on the scorecards.

Angelo picks Diyar Nurgozhay over Brendson Ribeiro. He is very high on Nurgozhay as a prospect, praising his wrestling, finishing ability, and quality wins. He notes Ribeiro is hittable and has a quit button. Angelo recommends betting on Nurgozhay now before the line skyrockets.

Big Brady picks Diyar Nurgozhay, praising his wrestling, vicious ground and pound, and power. He is not sold on Brendson Ribeiro, citing poor striking defense, durability, ground game, and heart, noting that Ribeiro's loss to Magomed Gadzhiyasulov is aging poorly. Brady believes if Nurgozhay gets on top, he will pound Ribeiro out. He predicts a second-round knockout for Nurgozhay.

Cody picks Jean Matsumoto, citing his youth, volume, and improved wrestling. He notes that Miles Johns has abandoned his wrestling and is low volume. He believes Matsumoto's performance against Rob Font showed he can compete at a higher level and that he will outwork Johns.

Connor agrees, describing Nurgozhay as a pillar-like fighter with Sambo timing and a devastating uppercut. He notes that Ribeiro is a classic light heavyweight with all power and no breaks, and that he will likely get caught by Nurgozhay's counters. He also mentions that Nurgozhay is durable and has a coherent striking game.

Daniel does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses the matchup briefly but does not state a preference or bet.

The host believes Nurgozhay will walk through Ribeiro using a grapple-heavy approach, taking him down and finding a dominant position to finish.

Paul picks Matsumoto, noting that Miles Johns has been trying to strike more but lacks volume and power. He believes Matsumoto's wrestling and volume will be too much for Johns, who has not been using his wrestling effectively.

The MMA Guru picks Diyar Nurgozhay, citing his well-rounded game, power, and submission ability. He notes Nurgozhay has a win over a PFL winner and knocked out a guy on the Contender Series with a head kick. He criticizes Brendson Ribeiro's mixed results, including a loss to Mingyang Zhang, and thinks Nurgozhay will knock him out on the feet. He predicts a first-round TKO debut win.