Fight card

UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2

March 15, 2025 UFC Apex Las Vegas, Nevada
Fight 1 VS Middleweight Completed
Roman Dolidze

Roman Dolidze W

15-5
Decision R5 5:00

Marvin Vettori

Moneyline
Caesars -145
KO/TKO
FanDuel +1100
Submission
BetRivers +800
Decision
FanDuel +120

Roman Dolidze

Moneyline
FanDuel +130
KO/TKO
FanDuel +460
Submission
BetRivers +1900
Decision
BetRivers +370
Fighter Stats

Marvin Vettori

Age32
Height6' 0"
Reach74.0"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Roman Dolidze

Age37
Height6' 2"
Reach76.0"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Marvin Vettori

4.74SLpM
45.0%Str. Acc.
4.55SApM
56.0%Str. Def.
1.41TD Avg
43.0%TD Acc.
68.0%TD Def.
0.4Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Roman Dolidze

3.19SLpM
41.0%Str. Acc.
3.71SApM
48.0%Str. Def.
1.16TD Avg
43.0%TD Acc.
32.0%TD Def.
0.7Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Angelo picks Roman Dolidze over Marvin Vettori in the rematch. He cites Vettori's two-year layoff, a rumored shoulder injury, and Dolidze's progression since their first fight. Angelo notes Dolidze has improved his striking and grappling activity, and he likes the 'win inside distance, decision no action' prop for Dolidze because he can finish and is durable.

Win inside distance, decision no action (Roman Dolidze)
"I got to go Roman here. Roman has picked up the striking activity he's picked up the grappling activity he got the hair done up and I think he can get it done here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

Big Brady picks Marvin Vettori, arguing that the first fight was close but Vettori outlanded Dolidze in two of three rounds. He emphasizes that this is a five-round fight, which favors Vettori's superior cardio and minute-winning style, while Dolidze is not a five-round fighter and needs a finish to win. Brady believes Vettori's takedown defense will keep the fight standing, where he will outwork Dolidze. He predicts a decision win for Vettori, though he expresses concern about corrupt judges.

Vettori by decision
"I got to go vtori here... I think vtori wins this fight and wins it by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)
No clear pick

Cody believes Hernandez's weaponized gas tank and constant pressure will eventually break Dolidze, especially in a five-round fight. He notes Hernandez is a slow starter and has durability issues, but expects him to take over in later rounds. He suggests live betting Hernandez after the first round for better value.

"I do got him. I don't love the price, but five rounds is built for three round fight at this price. I'm thinking of the dog. I actually am five round fight. That's enough for me to go …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

Connor picks Vettori despite acknowledging the X-factors of injury and camp change, because he believes Vettori's Kings MMA programming makes him durable and consistent. He notes that Vettori's style of moving forward and punching is hard to break, and that Dolidze's unathletic brawling may not be enough to overcome Vettori's pressure. However, he expresses concern that Vettori might try to be too technical after the layoff.

Odds: Vettori opened -127, now -149; Dolidze opened +107, now +132. Connor mentions the line seems logical.
"I'm going to take Marvin Vittori still."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Jan 31, 2024 (409 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Daniel picks Roman Dolidze as a plus money underdog, acknowledging the speed and movement advantage of Imavov but believing Dolidze's dangerous finishing ability and durability give him a chance over five rounds. He notes Dolidze's cardio concerns but thinks Imavov fades harder, and that Dolidze's leg lock threat is mitigated by Imavov's training with Ciryl Gane. He is not confident, calling it a tough fight where he could be frustrated if Dolidze gets outpointed.

"I kind of feel like I should just because I'm picking like a plus 150 dog out right but I I'm not delusional and I know what the concerns are"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

The host expects Vettori to replicate his previous decision win, using his ability to mix it up in the clinch and improved striking to shut down Dolidze's overaggressive nature. He predicts Vettori will outpoint, out strike, and out grapple Dolidze to win on the scorecards.

"I expect him to replicate that result here as I believe his ability to mix it up in the clinch and land his improving striking approach should be able to shut down the overaggressive nature of Del's game …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)
Roman Dolidze

Paul thinks Dolidze has improved striking and can exploit Hernandez's questionable standup and body vulnerability. He believes the market has overcooked Hernandez and sees value in Dolidze as a dog. He plans to wait for better odds, possibly plus 300 on fight day.

"I think it's deletes. He's shown more in the striking. Like I the biggest like he he absolutely crushed me against Victoria and there was nothing I could really say about it except for the fact that I …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Roman Dolidze

The MMA Guru picks Roman Dolidze, believing he could have won the first fight. He notes Dolidze's momentum with three fights in 2024, including wins over Anthony Smith and Kevin Holland, showing improvement. He questions Marvin Vettori's activity and recovery from the Cannonier beatdown and an injury. He thinks Dolidze's finishing potential and size advantage are key, and he predicts a 48-47 decision win for Dolidze, though a finish is possible. He also notes Dolidze is an underdog.

Dolidze is an underdog; predicted 48-47 decision.
"I'm actually going to go with Roman delzy over Marvin vtori... I'm going to say he wins this one 48 47 decision but if there is a finish I think it will go to delzy as well"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Mar 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Zane picks Dolidze based on the suspicion that Vettori's long layoff and potential camp change to American Top Team could disrupt his game. He notes that Vettori backed up a lot and got hit hard in their first fight, and that Dolidze came worryingly close to outworking him. However, he acknowledges Dolidze's unathletic style and that Vettori is durable and hard to put away.

Odds: Vettori opened -127, now -149; Dolidze opened +107, now +132. Zane mentions the line seems logical.
"I'm going to say to Lizzie just on that suspicion."
Fight Notes
BR
brian 10 months, 3 weeks ago

Roman 5 fouls no point deduction. Shifted the momentum of Marvin all the time. Marvin seemed tired after 2 or 3 rounds. Cheddar cheese block heads on both of them.

Chidi Njokuani

Chidi Njokuani W

25-12
KO R2 2:19
Fight 2 VS Catchweight (172.25 lb) Completed

Chidi Njokuani

Moneyline
Caesars +175
KO/TKO
FanDuel +400
Submission
BetRivers +1800
Decision
DraftKings +550

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Moneyline
FanDuel -196
KO/TKO
BetRivers +220
Submission
FanDuel +1000
Decision
FanDuel +240
Fighter Stats

Chidi Njokuani

Age37
Height6' 3"
Reach80.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Age39
Height5' 11"
Reach73.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Chidi Njokuani

5.16SLpM
61.0%Str. Acc.
3.32SApM
57.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
75.0%TD Def.
0.1Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

4.16SLpM
41.0%Str. Acc.
3.56SApM
55.0%Str. Def.
0.79TD Avg
20.0%TD Acc.
67.0%TD Def.
0.4Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Angelo picks Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos over Chidi Njokuani. He acknowledges Njokuani is a better striker and younger, but he's concerned about Njokuani's volume being a one-off. Angelo trusts Zaleski's durability and wrestling, noting he almost finished Rakhmonov late. He suggests a prop bet on Njokuani winning inside distance with decision no action as a possible alternative.

Chidi Njokuani win inside distance, decision no action
"I'm still going to stay on the zeleski side but only because he's so damn durable."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Big Brady picks Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos, noting that despite being 38, he still has good performances left. He highlights Zaleski's durability, cardio, and grappling advantage, and points out that Chidi Njokuani has a history of quitting when faced with adversity, especially when taken down. Brady believes if Zaleski gets on top or hurts Njokuani, the fight will end quickly. He predicts a second-round finish, either by KO or submission.

Zaleski dos Santos second round KO
"I like zeleski here and I think he finishes cheaty... second round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)
No clear pick

Cody picks Erceg despite the high price, citing his level of competition and size advantage. He acknowledges Ode Osborne's reach and speed could cause early problems, but expects Erceg to take over as Osborne fades due to short notice. He is wary of the minus 600 line but still sees Erceg winning.

"Ersig's going to be the pick, but minus 600 is a walk in the park. And I I think that Joseé Osborne is a different tricky type of style fighter that Ursk hasn't really necessarily have to deal …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Njokuani's desire to brawl in the pocket is exactly what Zaleski wants. He notes that Zaleski has a good chin and can outlast brawlers, and that Njokuani's range fighting is not his natural game. He also mentions that Zaleski can take the fight to the ground if needed.

Odds: Zaleski opened -188, now -193; Njokuani opened +155, now +167.
"I have to pick Zaleski here."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Jan 31, 2024 (409 days before fight)
No clear pick

Daniel does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses the matchup briefly but does not state a preference or bet.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Chidi Njokuani

The host believes Njokuani can replicate what Randy Brown did against Zaleski, using a distance striking approach and mixing in clinch Muay Thai. He expects Njokuani to land more damage and win at least two of three rounds on the scorecards.

"I believe en kuani should be able to replicate what Randy Brown was able to do against aleski utilizing a distance striking approach maybe even mixing it up in the clinch a little bit with his Muay Thai …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)
No clear pick

Paul also picks Erceg, noting his superior technique and experience against top competition. He mentions Ode Osborne's power and submission threat but believes Erceg will outclass him. He considers an Ode Osborne KO prop but prefers Erceg on the moneyline.

"The cleaner, better, more technical fighter is is Ersz. I expect to win. Um, I expect him to outclass OD, who I mean, outside of small moments tends to, you know, wilt fall apart a little bit."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Chidi Njokuani

The MMA Guru picks Chidi Njokuani, citing his physical presence, 7-inch reach advantage, and nasty clinch effectiveness. He thinks Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos, a rangy kicker, will struggle with Njokuani's size and pressure. He notes Zaleski dos Santos often wins close decisions and is 38, while Njokuani is a slight underdog with good value. He predicts a 2-1 decision or a Njokuani finish.

Njokuani is a slight underdog; good value.
"I'm going to go chiding at Jani here I think he's a slight Underdog and I think there's good value on that so uh check it out"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Zane picks Zaleski because Njokuani is a phone booth fighter who wants to brawl in the clinch, which plays into Zaleski's strengths. He notes that Zaleski is durable, can out-grapple Njokuani, and has a path to victory if he mixes in takedowns. He also points out that Njokuani has poor takedown defense and is too content to play guard.

Odds: Zaleski opened -188, now -193; Njokuani opened +155, now +167. Zane says Zaleski could be a bigger favorite but understands age concerns.
"I have to pick Zaleski here."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Alexander Hernandez

Alexander Hernandez W

18-9
Decision R3 5:00
Fight 3 VS Lightweight Completed

Alexander Hernandez

Moneyline
Caesars -185
KO/TKO
FanDuel +410
Submission
FanDuel +2000
Decision
BetRivers +123

Kurt Holobaugh

Moneyline
BetWay +175
KO/TKO
BetRivers +575
Submission
DraftKings +750
Decision
FanDuel +550
Fighter Stats

Alexander Hernandez

Age33
Height5' 9"
Reach72.0"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Kurt Holobaugh

Age39
Height5' 11"
Reach70.0"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Alexander Hernandez

4.31SLpM
40.0%Str. Acc.
4.5SApM
59.0%Str. Def.
1.14TD Avg
36.0%TD Acc.
73.0%TD Def.
0.1Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Kurt Holobaugh

4.58SLpM
44.0%Str. Acc.
4.24SApM
49.0%Str. Def.
0.65TD Avg
33.0%TD Acc.
38.0%TD Def.
0.8Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Kurt Holobaugh

Angelo picks Kurt Holobaugh over Alexander Hernandez. He criticizes Hernandez's inconsistency and tendency to wear damage, while Holobaugh's pressure and striking should be effective. Angelo notes that judges favor visible damage, which Holobaugh can inflict. He calls it a 'recipe for success' for Holobaugh.

"I'm actually going to pick Kurt here. I think the pressure the Striking all of that combined with the fact that Alex wears damage on his face and the only thing Vegas judges give a [__] about is …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Kurt Holobaugh

Big Brady picks Kurt Holobaugh as an underdog, citing Alexander Hernandez's inconsistency, poor cardio, and tendency to crumble under adversity. He notes that Hernandez has lost to fighters like Bill Algeo, Thiago Moises, and Damon Jackson when pressured. Brady believes Holobaugh is tough, has solid cardio, and good grappling, and can have success on the feet as well. He predicts a close decision win for Holobaugh, possibly winning the second and third rounds.

Holobaugh by decision
"I'll take the dog here and Hollow ball to get it done... plus 155 I'll take Hollow ball here to win."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)
No clear pick

Cody picks Angela Hill as a dog, citing her high volume and ability to mix in takedowns. He notes that Hill's fights are often close and she tends to fight to the level of her competition. He believes she can exploit Yasmin Lucindo's reliance on takedowns and lack of striking volume.

"Angela Hill dog money is almost kind of like a system play because she kind of fights the level of her competition every single fight. They're very very close. They kind of end up being coin flippy."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Mar 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kurt Holobaugh

Connor picks Holobaugh because he enjoys rooting for him more, but acknowledges it's a lean. He notes that Holobaugh's relentless pressure and willingness to brawl could cause Hernandez to collapse mentally, as seen in his losses to Damon Jackson, Bill Algeo, and Billy Quarantillo. However, he admits Holobaugh makes terrible decisions and is less athletic.

"I think I'm gonna pick Hollabaugh just because I enjoy rooting for him more."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Jan 31, 2024 (409 days before fight)
No clear pick

Daniel does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses the matchup briefly but does not state a preference or bet.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kurt Holobaugh

The host believes Holobaugh will dictate the pace, which is bad for Hernandez. He expects Holobaugh to touch up Hernandez over 15 minutes and potentially find a finish after a bad takedown attempt from Hernandez in deep water, either by knockout or club and sub.

finish by knockout or club and sub
"I believe halah should be able to dictate the pace of this matchup which usually is not a good sign for Hernandez that will lead halot to touching up Hernandez over the course of 15 minutes and potentially …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)
No clear pick

Paul also picks Angela Hill, emphasizing her experience against Brazilian opponents and her ability to mix takedowns. He notes that Lucindo struggled against Amanda Lemos when taken down and reversed. He believes Hill can bank early rounds with volume and takedowns, then survive the third.

"I'm actually on Angela Hill as well. I mean, uh you can tell that she's slowing down. Her last fight, the speed's there in the first round. The second round, you're starting to see her fade a lot …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

The MMA Guru picks Alexander Hernandez, liking him at lightweight where he performs better. He notes Hernandez trains at Factory X Muay Thai now and has a win over Jim Miller. He thinks Hernandez's shot selection and leg kicks will be effective against Kurt Holobaugh, who is 38 years old. He also mentions Hernandez can use offensive takedowns while fresh. He considers Holobaugh's win over Trey Ogden but believes Hernandez is a step above.

"I'm going to go with Alexander Hernandez I like him at lightweight does anyone else like Alexander Hernandez at lightweight"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Mar 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Zane picks Hernandez for athletic reasons, noting that Hernandez is a rock-solid wrestler and hits harder than Holobaugh's recent opponents. He acknowledges that Holobaugh's brawling pressure could cause Hernandez to collapse mentally, but believes Hernandez's physical advantages and the fact that Holobaugh makes terrible decisions give him the edge.

Odds: Hernandez opened -218, now -197; Holobaugh opened +178, now +181. Zane calls it a sensible line.
"I'm gonna stick with Hernandez."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Da'Mon Blackshear

Da'Mon Blackshear W

17-8-1
Submission R2 4:09
Fight 4 VS Bantamweight Completed

Da'Mon Blackshear

Moneyline
DraftKings -395
KO/TKO
DraftKings +800
Submission
FanDuel +250
Decision
FanDuel +110

Cody Gibson

Moneyline
FanDuel +350
KO/TKO
BetWay +2000
Submission
DraftKings +2000
Decision
BetRivers +650
Fighter Stats

Da'Mon Blackshear

Age31
Height5' 10"
Reach72.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Cody Gibson

Age38
Height5' 10"
Reach71.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Da'Mon Blackshear

4.33SLpM
45.0%Str. Acc.
4.19SApM
52.0%Str. Def.
1.48TD Avg
33.0%TD Acc.
71.0%TD Def.
1.5Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Cody Gibson

3.63SLpM
46.0%Str. Acc.
3.22SApM
57.0%Str. Def.
2.12TD Avg
37.0%TD Acc.
69.0%TD Def.
0.6Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Da'Mon Blackshear

Angelo picks Da'Mon Blackshear over Cody Gibson. He believes Blackshear's striking is far superior and that he will 'smoke Cody on the feet.' However, he notes that Cody is durable and may look to wrestle. Angelo is confident Blackshear wins but chooses not to bet due to the risk of big favorites losing this year.

"I think the Striking Gap is so wide that I am going to pick them on here I'm pretty confident him to get it done."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Da'Mon Blackshear

Big Brady picks Da'Mon Blackshear, calling him underrated with good striking and slick grappling (BJJ black belt). He notes that Cody Gibson often looks to take fights to the ground, which could put him in bad positions against Blackshear, who has submitted opponents via guillotine before. Brady expects a ground battle where Blackshear's superior grappling leads to a submission win, likely in the second round.

Blackshear second round submission
"I like blackshire here... I'll take blackshire to win this fight by second round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)
No clear pick

Cody picks Christian Rodriguez, citing Andre Fili's decline and Rodriguez's youth. He notes Fili's recent close decisions and losses, and believes Rodriguez can stuff takedowns and win on the feet. He is wary of Rodriguez's tendency to struggle against experienced fighters but thinks Fili is past his prime.

"I got Crod as well because a lot of the same things, which is just narrative. I feel like Phy's kind of on the back nine. Not only is it a little bit slower, he's just a little …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Da'Mon Blackshear

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Blackshear is one of the best scramblers in the bantamweight division and that Gibson's style will inevitably lead to grappling exchanges where Blackshear has the advantage. He notes that Gibson is fun and courageous but lacks the athleticism to keep up with Blackshear's scrambling.

"Got to take him here."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Jan 31, 2024 (409 days before fight)
No clear pick

Daniel does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses the matchup briefly but does not state a preference or bet.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Da'Mon Blackshear

The host believes Blackshear's grappling advantage and power striking approach will keep Gibson on the defensive, leading to Blackshear grinding out a win on the scorecards.

"I believe Black Shear is grappling uh Advantage I think he'll be able to keep Gibson at Bay utilizing his power striking approach wrapping Gibson up keeping him on the defensive and that should eventually lead to Black …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)
No clear pick

Paul also picks Rodriguez, noting Fili's inconsistency and Rodriguez's ability to stuff takedowns. He points out that Fili's recent wins have been split decisions and he could be on a losing streak. He believes Rodriguez's volume and wrestling defense will be enough.

"Crod's a pick for me. What about you?"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Da'Mon Blackshear

The MMA Guru picks Da'Mon Blackshear, calling him underrated and noting his good fight with Mario Bautista. He mentions Blackshear's takedown defense clinic against Brett Johns and his recent submission win over Cody Stamann with a 50k bonus. He criticizes Cody Gibson for lacking finishing ability and not impressing against Miles Johns. He predicts a first or second-round finish for Blackshear.

First or second round finish
"I'm going to say first or second round finish for Deon black year I think he's pretty underrated"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Da'Mon Blackshear

Zane picks Blackshear because he is a significantly better athlete and scrambler than Gibson. He notes that Gibson's high-energy style leads to him fading, and that Blackshear excels in scrambles, which is where the fight will likely go. He also points out that Gibson is underpowered and that Blackshear's only losses come to fighters who can survive his scrambles and out-strike him.

Odds: Blackshear opened -428, now -484; Gibson opened +302, now +335.
"Got to take him here."
Fight Notes
BR
brian 10 months, 3 weeks ago

Cody is actually pretty good. Went for the takedowns after success on the feet and got subbed. Poor choice. Blackshear isn't a fan of the heat.

Fight 5 VS Catchweight (210.5 lb) Completed
Brendson Ribeiro

Brendson Ribeiro W

17-10
Submission R2 1:28

Diyar Nurgozhay

No odds available.

Brendson Ribeiro

No odds available.

Fighter Stats

Diyar Nurgozhay

Age29
Height6' 2"
Reach74.0"
Weight205 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Brendson Ribeiro

Age29
Height6' 3"
Reach81.0"
Weight205 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Diyar Nurgozhay

4.52SLpM
59.0%Str. Acc.
2.81SApM
61.0%Str. Def.
1.37TD Avg
75.0%TD Acc.
80.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Brendson Ribeiro

3.04SLpM
42.0%Str. Acc.
3.91SApM
53.0%Str. Def.
0.85TD Avg
42.0%TD Acc.
21.0%TD Def.
0.6Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Diyar Nurgozhay

Angelo picks Diyar Nurgozhay over Brendson Ribeiro. He is very high on Nurgozhay as a prospect, praising his wrestling, finishing ability, and quality wins. He notes Ribeiro is hittable and has a quit button. Angelo recommends betting on Nurgozhay now before the line skyrockets.

"Dr is going to be the pick and I would bet on him now before this line absolutely Skyrock."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Diyar Nurgozhay

Big Brady picks Diyar Nurgozhay, praising his wrestling, vicious ground and pound, and power. He is not sold on Brendson Ribeiro, citing poor striking defense, durability, ground game, and heart, noting that Ribeiro's loss to Magomed Gadzhiyasulov is aging poorly. Brady believes if Nurgozhay gets on top, he will pound Ribeiro out. He predicts a second-round knockout for Nurgozhay.

Nurgozhay second round KO
"I like nuro here... nuro second round KO."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)
No clear pick

Cody picks Jean Matsumoto, citing his youth, volume, and improved wrestling. He notes that Miles Johns has abandoned his wrestling and is low volume. He believes Matsumoto's performance against Rob Font showed he can compete at a higher level and that he will outwork Johns.

"John Masumoto, meanwhile, he's six years younger, right? 25 versus 31, but he he was 16 and0 prior to the Rob Font fight. Rob Font fought half of the best guys in the division. He's a 10-year vet, …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Diyar Nurgozhay

Connor agrees, describing Nurgozhay as a pillar-like fighter with Sambo timing and a devastating uppercut. He notes that Ribeiro is a classic light heavyweight with all power and no breaks, and that he will likely get caught by Nurgozhay's counters. He also mentions that Nurgozhay is durable and has a coherent striking game.

"I suspect Habero unless he gets very lucky is going to get nuked."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Jan 31, 2024 (409 days before fight)
No clear pick

Daniel does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses the matchup briefly but does not state a preference or bet.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Diyar Nurgozhay

The host believes Nurgozhay will walk through Ribeiro using a grapple-heavy approach, taking him down and finding a dominant position to finish.

finish
"I believe noazi will walk through hio in this matchup utilizing his grapple heavy approach taking hio to the ground and eventually finding a dominant enough position to find the finish."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)
No clear pick

Paul picks Matsumoto, noting that Miles Johns has been trying to strike more but lacks volume and power. He believes Matsumoto's wrestling and volume will be too much for Johns, who has not been using his wrestling effectively.

"Pick for me is Jean Matsumoto. Your thoughts?"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Diyar Nurgozhay

The MMA Guru picks Diyar Nurgozhay, citing his well-rounded game, power, and submission ability. He notes Nurgozhay has a win over a PFL winner and knocked out a guy on the Contender Series with a head kick. He criticizes Brendson Ribeiro's mixed results, including a loss to Mingyang Zhang, and thinks Nurgozhay will knock him out on the feet. He predicts a first-round TKO debut win.

First round TKO
"I'm going to go with the momentum of uh nurer I think for this fight and I'm gonna say TKO win in the first round big debut win"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Diyar Nurgozhay

Zane picks Nurgozhay as a top light heavyweight prospect with a complete game. He notes that Nurgozhay has excellent counter-striking, particularly his uppercut, and that Ribeiro is formless and likely to get nuked. He compares Nurgozhay to Ankalaev in terms of patience and defensive boxing, and notes that Ribeiro has been knocked out in three of his four recent losses.

Odds: Nurgozhay opened -249, now -368; Ribeiro opened +201, now +284. Zane says it could be wider.
"Nurgle is a genuinely good pickup for the UFC... I don't think it's even too soon for him right now."
Fight Notes
BR
brian 10 months, 3 weeks ago

Diyar missed weight by 5 pounds

BR
brian 10 months, 3 weeks ago

Diyar is unprofessional and shouldn't be in the UFC

Fight 6 VS Featherweight Completed
Kevin Vallejos

Kevin Vallejos W

18-1
KO R1 3:09

SeungWoo Choi

No odds available.

Kevin Vallejos

No odds available.

Fighter Stats

SeungWoo Choi

Age33
Height6' 0"
Reach74"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Kevin Vallejos

Age24
Height5' 7"
Reach68.0"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Career Averages - SeungWoo Choi

3.56SLpM
38.0%Str. Acc.
3.16SApM
47.0%Str. Def.
0.83TD Avg
54.0%TD Acc.
70.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Kevin Vallejos

6.12SLpM
48.0%Str. Acc.
4.41SApM
57.0%Str. Def.
0.66TD Avg
28.0%TD Acc.
84.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

Angelo picks Kevin Vallejos over Choi Seung-woo. He is very confident in Vallejos, citing his power, speed, and the fact that Choi has been knocked out recently. He notes that UFC debuts can be nerve-wracking but believes Vallejos is the real deal. He expects the odds to move further in Vallejos' favor.

"I love Kevin in this matchup and even with the grappling I am very confident in him here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

Big Brady picks Kevin Vallejos, calling Choi Seung-woo very hittable and chinny. He notes that Choi has been knocked down or finished by lesser strikers like Michael Trizano and Josh Culibao, and that his style of standing and banging when hurt will backfire against Vallejos. Brady expects Vallejos to land a brutal first-round knockout, predicting he 'pipes up' Choi on sight.

Vallejos first round KO
"give me Kevin vallejos to win this fight by a brutal brutal first round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)
No clear pick

Cody picks Christian Leroy Duncan, citing his speed, movement, and ability to finish. He notes that Eric Anders has been knocked down in his last three fights and is 38 years old. He believes Duncan can land a knockout, possibly in the first round, and considers the KO prop at plus 200.

KO prop at +200
"CLD by knockout. That may make my card this week to be perfectly honest. Um plus 200 when you've got like a minus 600 favorite."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

Connor agrees, noting that Vallejos is a much more natural puncher inside and that Choi will relegate himself to brawling. He compares Vallejos to Jack Della Maddalena without a jab, but still fearsome. He also mentions that Vallejos looks for ways in off his opponent's offense and is a damn good combination puncher once he gets you out of position.

"I'm going to take Vallejos."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Jan 31, 2024 (409 days before fight)
No clear pick

Daniel does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses the matchup briefly but does not state a preference or bet.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

The host believes this is a horrible matchup for Choi, who may have an output advantage but will eventually be caught by Vallejos crashing the pocket with big shots that put him clean out.

knockout
"I believe this is a horrible matchup for Troy he might have the output Advantage here against valos but I think it's just a matter of time before valos is able to crash the Pocket land those big …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)
No clear pick

Paul also picks Duncan, noting that Anders is a low-volume fighter who has been dropped early in recent fights. He believes Duncan's speed and athleticism will be too much, and he expects a finish. He is considering the KO prop as well.

"I think he's improving. They've not given him the easiest run. Anders isn't the easiest fight, but you should be able to just use that speed, that movement, keep him off of you, outpoint him at the very …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

The MMA Guru is very high on Kevin Vallejos, calling him the 'people's Main Event' and a real deal prospect. He praises his striking, head movement, and defensive responsibility, noting he took Jean Silva to a decision on the Contender Series at age 21. He criticizes Choi Seung-woo's bad chin and knockout losses, including to Mike Trizano. He predicts Vallejos will get a TKO finish in the second round, possibly late first, and believes he will go far in the division.

Second round TKO (maybe late first)
"I'm going with Kevin valos this is the people's Main Event okay you might not know it yet but you will after this Kevin vallejos is the real [ __ ] deal"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

Zane picks Vallejos because he believes Vallejos has a good chin (going three rounds with John Silva) and that Choi will eventually brawl, which favors Vallejos' natural pocket punching. He notes that Vallejos is a good combination puncher with defense, and that Choi cannot fight from distance forever. He acknowledges the competition level concern but thinks Vallejos has the tools.

Odds: Vallejos opened -384, now -636; Choi opened +248, now +424. Zane says the line is too wide but Vallejos deserves to be a favorite.
"I think I'm going to pick Vallejos, not just because he's a witch."
Fight Notes
BR
brian 10 months, 3 weeks ago

Kevin is a beast. Choi likes to strike but cant take a beating.

BR
brian 10 months, 3 weeks ago

Choi turtled and kevin made it rain

Waldo Cortes Acosta

Waldo Cortes Acosta W

17-3
KO R2 4:48
Fight 7 VS Heavyweight Completed

Waldo Cortes Acosta

No odds available.

Ryan Spann

No odds available.

Fighter Stats

Waldo Cortes Acosta

Age34
Height6' 4"
Reach78"
Weight260 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Ryan Spann

Age34
Height6' 5"
Reach79.0"
Weight205 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Waldo Cortes Acosta

5.54SLpM
49.0%Str. Acc.
3.38SApM
56.0%Str. Def.
0.44TD Avg
57.0%TD Acc.
72.0%TD Def.
0.1Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Ryan Spann

3.19SLpM
39.0%Str. Acc.
4.14SApM
43.0%Str. Def.
1.3TD Avg
34.0%TD Acc.
52.0%TD Def.
1.8Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Angelo picks Waldo Cortes Acosta over Ryan Spann. He believes Waldo is faster, has better movement, and cardio, while Spann's last win was his first in three years against an older opponent. He notes that public money might come in on Spann, making Waldo even better value.

"Waldo's the pick and that's not just because we were both in the movie the burden of Nine Lives."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Big Brady picks Waldo Cortes Acosta, reasoning that Ryan Spann is a round-one-or-bust fighter who fades after the first five minutes. He notes Spann's last win outside the first round was a split decision in 2020. Brady believes Cortes Acosta has good durability and cardio, and if he survives the first round, he will take over in the later rounds with higher output. He predicts a decision win for Cortes Acosta.

Cortes Acosta by decision
"give me Waldo Cortez aosta by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)
No clear pick

Cody picks Julius Walker, noting that the UFC is giving him a bounce-back fight after a competitive debut against Alonzo Menifield. He believes Raphael Cerqueira is a low-level opponent with poor durability and that Walker will win easily. He acknowledges the high price but sees it as a safe play.

"I feel like Julius really puts it on him. And the UFC understands fully. We've seen guys like Martin Budai six and one in the UFC cut. We've seen guys, you know, talented prospects, maybe like a TJ …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Jan 31, 2024 (409 days before fight)
No clear pick

Daniel does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses the matchup briefly but does not state a preference or bet.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

The host believes Cortes Acosta's takedown defense will keep the fight standing, allowing him to run away with the matchup in deep water and win on the scorecards.

"I believe Cortez a Costa's ability to keep span at Bay utilizing some decent enough takedown defense keeping this fight in the stand up realm and I think that will see Cortez aosta start to run away with …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)
No clear pick

Paul also picks Walker, citing his athleticism and the favorable matchup. He notes that Cerqueira has a padded record and has been knocked out quickly. He believes Walker will roll and sees value in the win, despite the high price.

"Walker for me. You"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Ryan Spann

The MMA Guru picks Ryan Spann, believing in light heavyweights succeeding at heavyweight. He notes Spann has touch-of-death power and dangerous grappling, though he has bad IQ moments. He criticizes Waldo Cortes Acosta as a 'fat heavyweight' who nearly got fraud-checked by Jared Vanderaa and has poor takedown entries. He thinks Spann's experience against better competition gives him the edge, and he expects a knockout.

"I'm gonna go Ryan span I'm GNA go with Ryan span over wildo Cortez a Costa I believe in light heavyweights succeeding at heavyweight"
Fight Notes
BR
brian 10 months, 3 weeks ago

Spann moving up weightclass?

BR
brian 10 months, 3 weeks ago

Waldo is hard to take down. Iron chin. Decent performance from Spann but he isn't a HW

YO

You Su-young W

Decision R3 5:00
Fight 8 VS Bantamweight Completed

You Su-young

No odds available.

AJ Cunningham

No odds available.

Fighter Stats

You Su-young

Age30
Height5' 6"
Reach65"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

AJ Cunningham

Age31
Height5' 10"
Reach71.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - You Su-young

2.15SLpM
47.0%Str. Acc.
2.01SApM
68.0%Str. Def.
4.26TD Avg
47.0%TD Acc.
66.0%TD Def.
0.4Sub. Avg

Career Averages - AJ Cunningham

4.22SLpM
29.0%Str. Acc.
6.31SApM
48.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
46.0%TD Def.
0.5Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
You Su-young

Angelo picks You Su-young over AJ Cunningham. He notes that You is a relentless wrestler who will shoot takedowns constantly, while Cunningham's takedown defense is poor. He sees no value in the moneyline but suggests round line or takedown props.

Round line prop, takedown props
"You takes down AJ I think it's pretty straightforward no real value in the money line here but we could make a dollar or two on the round line prop Tak down props."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2025 (5 days before fight)
You Su-young

Big Brady picks You Su-young, noting that AJ Cunningham has taken severe damage in recent fights and is likely not UFC caliber. He describes You as a wrestler with good cardio and slick jiu-jitsu (nicknamed 'Yu Jitsu'), who will take Cunningham down and control him. Brady expects a decision win for You, though he mentions a possible finish if Cunningham's weight cut is tough.

You by decision
"I like you to get it done and I'll take him to win by by decision here."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)
No clear pick

Cody picks Elijah Smith, citing his athleticism and wrestling background. He notes that Kazama has a dangerous submission game but has been knocked down and finished in losses. He believes Smith's power and wrestling will be too much, though he is wary of submission threats. He considers Smith by TKO as a prop.

Smith by TKO at -200
"Smith will be the pick for me. Maybe I'll have his KO prop in some uh in some greasy parlays over the course of the week, but um yeah, it's it's a little bit wide. Um I expect …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Jan 31, 2024 (409 days before fight)
No clear pick

Daniel does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses the matchup briefly but does not state a preference or bet.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
You Su-young

The host believes You will utilize his grappling advantage to get the fight to the ground and twist up Cunningham into a pretzel. He expects You to win with relative ease by submission.

submission
"I believe you will utilize his grappling Advantage here eventually getting this fight to the ground and pretty much twisting up Cunningham into a pretzel I think Yu wins this match up with relative ease and I think …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)
No clear pick

Paul also picks Smith, noting that Kazama has been knocked down in all his UFC losses and that Smith has power. He believes Smith will avoid submissions and ground and pound for a finish. He is concerned about Smith's inexperience but still expects a win.

"I think the world of Elijah Harris or sorry, Elijah Smith, uh his his dad, Gilbert Smith, Ultimate Fighter veteran, Bellator veteran, always going to have a good game plan for him."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Mar 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
You Su-young

The MMA Guru hesitantly picks You Su-young, despite being tempted by AJ Cunningham as an underdog. He notes Cunningham trains with Bryce Mitchell and has potential, but lacks momentum and was badly beaten by Ludovic Klein. He thinks Su-young is underrated, coming through Road to UFC, and has good momentum. However, he admits he doesn't understand why Su-young is a 7-1 favorite and sees value on Cunningham, but ultimately goes with Su-young.

Su-young is a 7-1 favorite; Cunningham has value as an underdog.
"I'm going to go Su Yu I'm going to go Su Yu but I think there is a lot of value on AJ Cunningham because he there's potential there but he just needs to get the ball rolling"
Fight Notes
BR
brian 10 months, 3 weeks ago

You Su has low wattage. AJ fight with his heart but doesn't have a great tank. 135 debut for AJ

BR
brian 10 months, 3 weeks ago

You Su sucks to watch. Doesn't want to fight. Will get murdered by all proper wrestlers. Had nice trips and sweeps. Coasts on top, comfortable in subs it seems, lets see how comfortable he is after getting ragged dolled. AJ new camp showed better footwork but it all seemed new to him at times. He is slow at 135 but massive not clever enough for the division.

Carlos Vera

Carlos Vera W

12-4
Submission R1 3:16
Fight 9 VS Bantamweight Completed

Carlos Vera

No odds available.

Josias Musasa

No odds available.

Fighter Stats

Carlos Vera

Age38
Height5' 6"
Reach69.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Josias Musasa

Age27
Height5' 8"
Reach74.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Career Averages - Carlos Vera

1.53SLpM
57.0%Str. Acc.
2.79SApM
49.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
25.0%TD Def.
1.6Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Josias Musasa

3.19SLpM
45.0%Str. Acc.
4.39SApM
36.0%Str. Def.
0.9TD Avg
50.0%TD Acc.
81.0%TD Def.
0.5Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Josias Musasa

Angelo picks Josias Musasa over Carlos Vera. He highlights Musasa's fight-ending power and forward pressure, but warns that he may punch himself out. He notes that Vera is tough and has good BJJ, so if Musasa fades, Vera could take over. He is not sure if he will bet this fight.

"Josias is going to be the pick because of how insanely dangerous he is but my warning to you is very possible that Josiah punches himself out."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Josias Musasa

Big Brady picks Josias Musasa but is not fully sold on him, calling him still very green. He thinks the matchup is favorable for Musasa because Carlos Vera is a 37-year-old who often pulls guard and goes for leg locks, which could play into Musasa's strengths. Brady expects Musasa to win by knockout, likely in the second round, but notes the -650 odds are ridiculous for a fighter he's not completely confident in.

Musasa second round knockout
"musasa by knockout makes sense to me... give me musasa second round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)
No clear pick

Cody picks Josiane Nunes, citing her wrestling advantage and size. He notes that Priscila Cachoeira has poor takedown defense and has been taken down repeatedly. He believes Nunes will control the fight with takedowns and ground control, though he is emotionally conflicted about fading Cachoeira.

"Edwards is the pick. I'm sorry."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Jan 31, 2024 (409 days before fight)
No clear pick

Daniel does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses the matchup briefly but does not state a preference or bet.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Josias Musasa

The host believes Musasa's power and explosiveness will be too much for Vera, though the odds are wide. He is intrigued by the Vera by submission prop but still picks Musasa by knockout.

Vera by submission prop mentioned as intriguing, but host picks Musasa by knockout
"I believe his power and his explosiveness is going to be too much for Vera although the odds are a little bit wide and I am intrigued by the Vera by submission prop I think musasa still comes …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)
No clear pick

Paul also picks Nunes, noting Cachoeira's lack of takedown defense and Nunes's size and strength. He believes Nunes will take her down repeatedly and control the fight. He mentions that Cachoeira has power but will be neutralized by wrestling.

"I gota take Josyn Edwards as well. CF do model's tempting because this is a wide number for a women's MMA fight, but I just think styles make fights and this is a great style clash for her."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Josias Musasa

The MMA Guru confidently picks Josias Musasa to win by first-round TKO. He criticizes Carlos Vera as being 37 years old, on a two-fight losing streak, and not impressive. He praises Musasa's finishing potential on the feet and his ability to get back up from takedowns, as shown in his Contender Series fight against a Georgian grappler. He believes Musasa will finish Vera easily on the feet.

First round TKO
"I'm gonna say first round T TKO for Josias musasa but even if he doesn't get a first round TKO against the Georgian dude on the contender series that had a good grappling background he showed great ability …"
Fight Notes
BR
brian 10 months, 3 weeks ago

Musasa isnt great will lose to loads of people. Carlos is a ryan hall type fighter.

BR
brian 10 months, 3 weeks ago

Musasa got dropped and subbed. Both knew their opponents at least .

Fight 10 VS Women's Strawweight Completed
Sam Hughes

Sam Hughes W

11-7
Decision R3 5:00

Stephanie Luciano

No odds available.

Sam Hughes

No odds available.

Fighter Stats

Stephanie Luciano

Age26
Height5' 6"
Reach65.0"
Weight115 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Sam Hughes

Age33
Height5' 5"
Reach64.0"
Weight115 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Stephanie Luciano

5.2SLpM
42.0%Str. Acc.
3.04SApM
64.0%Str. Def.
1.3TD Avg
71.0%TD Acc.
80.0%TD Def.
0.3Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Sam Hughes

4.41SLpM
47.0%Str. Acc.
4.69SApM
58.0%Str. Def.
1.12TD Avg
29.0%TD Acc.
63.0%TD Def.
0.2Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Stephanie Luciano

Angelo picks Stephanie Luciano over Sam Hughes. He believes Luciano is better everywhere—striking, wrestling, and cardio. He notes that Hughes is a pressure fighter but Luciano won't fade early. He also mentions the plus 3.5 round line as a potential value bet on Hughes.

Sam Hughes +3.5 round line
"Stephanie luchano is going to be the pick and honestly if the odds are just who wins this fight I think the odds are correct."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Stephanie Luciano

Big Brady picks Stephanie Luciano, noting her excellent cardio and output, which should allow her to maintain pace for all 15 minutes. He observes that Sam Hughes' wins come against opponents who slow down after the first 7-8 minutes, but Luciano won't fade. Brady thinks if Luciano can stuff takedowns, she will pick Hughes apart on the feet. He predicts a decision win but does not like the -225 price.

Luciano by decision
"I like Luciano here... I think she wins a decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)
No clear pick

Cody picks Yur Medeiros, but with low confidence due to his volatile style and durability issues. He notes that Medeiros is a finisher but has been knocked out. He prefers the under on the fight, expecting a finish. He considers Gilbert Urbina as a dog play because of the high line.

Under 1.5 rounds at -155
"I think I this just feels like unders uh for me whether it's fight doesn't or you know I don't know if that line even still exists but uh if you can find an under two and a …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Jan 31, 2024 (409 days before fight)
No clear pick

Daniel does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses the matchup briefly but does not state a preference or bet.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Stephanie Luciano

The host believes Luciano's striking advantage will prove decisive, though the fight might be closer than odds indicate. He expects Luciano to land more damage and win on the scorecards.

Hughes is always a dog at plus money
"I believe hu uh Luciano's striking Advantage here will prove prove fo for for her it might play out closer than the odds indicate and Hughes is always a dog when she's uh at this plus money but …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)
No clear pick

Paul picks Gilbert Urbina as a dog, citing Medeiros's inconsistency and durability issues. He notes that Urbina has a reach advantage and has been off for a while, possibly making improvements. He believes the line is too high and that Urbina has a chance to win, especially if he can avoid early knockout.

"I'm going to take Gilbert or Beina. Strictly a system play. Too big of a line. If one of these big favorites is is is going to do something stupid, it's probably Euros Medic that kind of fights …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Stephanie Luciano

The MMA Guru picks Stephanie Luciano, citing her improved takedown defense after facing an opponent who shot 24 takedowns in her last fight. He notes she's tall for the division with nasty striking, planting her feet when she throws punches. He dismisses Sam Hughes as a 'fraud checker' who has beaten prospects but thinks Luciano's takedown defense and striking will be too much. He also suggests judges might rob Hughes even if she wins, so he's confident in Luciano.

"I'm going to go of Stephanie Luciano I don't think the judges will even let Sam Hughes get another fraud check at women's MMA I just don't think so"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

André Lima

André Lima W

11-0
Submission R3 3:05
Fight 11 VS Flyweight Completed

André Lima

No odds available.

Daniel Bárez

No odds available.

Fighter Stats

André Lima

Age27
Height5' 7"
Reach67"
Weight125 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Daniel Bárez

Age37
Height5' 6"
Reach66"
Weight125 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - André Lima

4.06SLpM
60.0%Str. Acc.
2.49SApM
57.0%Str. Def.
1.36TD Avg
75.0%TD Acc.
75.0%TD Def.
1.1Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Daniel Bárez

3.65SLpM
49.0%Str. Acc.
5.95SApM
50.0%Str. Def.
1.93TD Avg
28.0%TD Acc.
80.0%TD Def.
0.6Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
André Lima

Angelo picks André Lima over Daniel Bárez. He acknowledges Lima is a solid striker but criticizes him for cheating (grabbing fence, inside gloves) and for struggling against Felipe dos Santos. He thinks Lima should win but cannot bet him at -280, citing better value elsewhere on the card.

"Andre is going to be the pick but I can't touch him at minus 280 can't do it there's way better value on this card in other places."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2025 (5 days before fight)
André Lima

Big Brady picks André Lima, noting his skill advantage but criticizing his frequent cheating (cage grabbing, missing weight) and lack of urgency. He believes Lima is the better striker and has improved takedown defense and ground game, now a BJJ black belt. However, he worries Lima's low output and tendency to go to split decisions against lesser opponents could be an issue. He expects Lima to dictate where the fight takes place and win by decision.

Lima by decision
"I like lima here... give me lima by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)
No clear pick

Cody picks Gabriella Fernandez, noting her experience and wins over decent competition. He acknowledges that Julia Stoliarenko has submission skills but believes Fernandez can avoid submissions and win on the feet or by decision. He is not confident in Stoliarenko's ability to get the fight to the ground.

"I still got Fernandez. I can't get behind Julie Stoenko. just not my kind of fighter. I just I really don't want to lose on something like a minus 300 Gabrielle Fernandez bet when I don't think she's …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Jan 31, 2024 (409 days before fight)
No clear pick

Daniel does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses the matchup briefly but does not state a preference or bet.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
André Lima

The host believes Lima is the overall better fighter with defensive grappling that will keep the fight in Muay Thai or allow him grappling success. He expects Lima to touch up Barz and eventually find a finish.

finish
"I believe Lima is the overall better fighter here I believe his defensive grappling will allow him to keep this in the Muay thaam or even enjoy some grappling success of his own but look for Lima to …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)
No clear pick

Paul also picks Fernandez, noting that Stoliarenko's submission wins have come against lower-level competition. He believes Fernandez has good takedown defense and can keep the fight standing. He is not tempted by the dog price on Stoliarenko.

"I won't be backing Stinko in this one."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Mar 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
André Lima

The MMA Guru leans towards André Lima, calling him the more well-seasoned fighter with hidden kickboxing experience (10-12 matches). He notes Lima is undefeated (10-0) and a big dude for flyweight, with no massive weakness in his ground game. However, he warns that the UFC might favor Daniel Bárez because he's Spanish, so he advises watching for close controversial decisions. He acknowledges Bárez's grappling is a treat to watch but thinks Lima is more effective on the feet.

If it's a close fight, watch for swing in odds; UFC may favor Bárez due to Spanish talent push.
"I'm going to start with Andre lemur over Daniel Barz but I know the UFC are probably pull him for Daniel Barz because he's Spanish so keep an eye out if it's a close controversial fight"
Fight Notes
BR
brian 10 months, 3 weeks ago

Barez is tough. Lima put a beating on him. Leg kicks were brutal. Lima will tko someone soon.

Fight 12 VS Women's Bantamweight Completed
Priscila Cachoeira

Priscila Cachoeira W

13-8
KO R1 2:46

Josiane Nunes

No odds available.

Priscila Cachoeira

No odds available.

Fighter Stats

Josiane Nunes

Age32
Height5' 2"
Reach67.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Priscila Cachoeira

Age37
Height5' 7"
Reach65.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Josiane Nunes

5.65SLpM
43.0%Str. Acc.
5.76SApM
51.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
58.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Priscila Cachoeira

4.43SLpM
44.0%Str. Acc.
7.6SApM
45.0%Str. Def.
0.25TD Avg
40.0%TD Acc.
69.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Josiane Nunes

Angelo picks Josiane Nunes over Priscila Cachoeira. He notes both are similar power-punchers, but Nunes hits harder, is tougher, and doesn't absorb as many strikes. He suggests the under 2.5 rounds as a potential bet since Cachoeira could get finished.

Under 2.5 rounds
"josean nunz should win this fight she hits a little harder she's a little tougher she's a little more solid she doesn't get hit with seven significant strikes per minute so josean Nunes is going to be the …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 10, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Josiane Nunes

Big Brady picks Josiane Nunes but with very low confidence, stating he would never bet on this fight. He acknowledges Priscila Cachoeira's toughness and durability but notes she absorbs a lot of strikes (43% striking defense) and is very hittable. Brady thinks Nunes is the better fighter, younger, and will land more significant shots, possibly hurting Cachoeira. However, he does not trust either fighter and expects a competitive brawl. He predicts Nunes wins by decision, calling it a potential Fight of the Night.

Nunes by decision
"I'm going Nunes here but I would never in a million years bet on this fight... give me Nunes by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)
No clear pick

Cody picks Eric McConico as a dog, citing Cody Brundage's tendency to quit and his uncoachable nature. He notes that Brundage has low volume and poor cardio, while McConico has a deep gas tank and can take over late. He believes McConico can survive early rounds and win by decision or late finish.

"I'm going to take McConno. I'm just going to bite down."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Jan 31, 2024 (409 days before fight)
No clear pick

Daniel does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses the matchup briefly but does not state a preference or bet.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Mar 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Priscila Cachoeira

The host leans with Cachoeira, citing she has more tools in the shed, especially in striking, and her durability is good. He expects her to land nasty strikes and win on the scorecards.

"I have to lean with cashara as I believe she has a little bit more tools in the shed especially when it comes to the Striking R usually her durability is quite good too and I look for …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)
No clear pick

Paul also picks McConico, noting that Brundage has a history of quitting and is moving up to 205, which may affect his cardio. He believes McConico's body work and volume will wear on Brundage. He sees value in the dog price and expects McConico to win if he can avoid an early knockout.

"I can't bet Brundage either. So, this is what this is why I'm going to take McConno. I'm just going to bite down."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Josiane Nunes

The MMA Guru picks Josiane Nunes, describing her as a 'menacing little Goblin' with dangerous punching power. He expects her to either knock out Priscila Cachoeira or beat her down over three rounds. He criticizes Cachoeira's chin and recent losses, including to Molly McCann, and notes she missed weight against Robertson. He doesn't see Cachoeira effectively outgrappling Nunes, so he's confident in Nunes getting the win.

"I'm gonna go with josian Nunes she's just a menacing little Goblin really really dangerous stuff um I reckon she'll go out there and if not Chomp a finger off of Priscilla kakera probably take her out with …"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Fight 13 VS Women's Flyweight Completed
Carli Judice

Carli Judice W

6-2
KO R1 1:40

Yuneisy Duben

No odds available.

Carli Judice

No odds available.

Fighter Stats

Yuneisy Duben

Age29
Height5' 4"
Reach65.0"
Weight125 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Carli Judice

Age27
Height5' 7"
Reach68.0"
Weight125 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Career Averages - Yuneisy Duben

13.53SLpM
48.0%Str. Acc.
10.75SApM
53.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
0.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Carli Judice

9.32SLpM
50.0%Str. Acc.
6.62SApM
57.0%Str. Def.
0.52TD Avg
25.0%TD Acc.
80.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Yuneisy Duben

Angelo picks Yuneisy Duben over Carli Judice. He acknowledges Judice is technically better but Duben's chaotic aggression and finishing ability sway him. He is concerned about Duben's cardio since she has never gone to a decision. He suggests an under bet as a possibility.

Under (rounds)
"I'm gonna pick Dubin based purely off of her willingness to engage."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Carli Judice

Big Brady picks Carli Judice over Yuneisy Duben. He notes that Duben's level of competition is extremely low, with her opponents having almost no wins combined, and that her only notable win was a huge upset on the Contender Series where she was a +1000 underdog. In contrast, Judice's two UFC losses were competitive against solid fighters like Ernesta Kareckaite and Gabriella Fernandes. Brady believes Judice's volume, cardio, and top game will be too much for Duben, who has never seen a third round. He predicts a second-round TKO finish for Judice.

second round TKO
"I have to go judice here... give me judice here and I think she goes out there and finishes duben at some point in this fight."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)
No clear pick

Cody does not make a clear pick for this fight, as it was added late and not discussed in detail. He mentions the fight briefly but does not give a pick.

"Brundage, Meccanico. Brundage currently like a minus 150 favorite to come back on McConico plus 118."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Jan 31, 2024 (409 days before fight)
No clear pick

Daniel does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses the matchup briefly but does not state a preference or bet.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Carli Judice

The host believes Judice is the superior striker with better combinations, footwork, and range management. He expects her to set up a trap and knock out Duben within two rounds.

knockout within two rounds
"I believe judice is the superior Striker here and I believe her ability to put together solid combinations utilize good full work utilize her range management and that should allow her to eventually set up a trap to …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)
No clear pick

Paul does not make a clear pick for this fight, as it was added late and not discussed in detail. He mentions the fight briefly but does not give a pick.

"Brundage, Meccanico. Brundage currently like a minus 150 favorite to come back on McConico plus 118."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Yuneisy Duben

The MMA Guru picks Yuneisy Duben as an underdog, citing her undefeated record (6-0), training with Rosam Unas and Miranda Maverick, and her power to knock people out. He notes Carli Judice is rangy but lacks power in her punches, comparing her striking to early Yan Xiaonan but not at that level. He also mentions Duben's nasty KO win on the Contender Series and that she was sick three days before that fight, showing resilience. He admits he also picks her because she's attractive, but emphasizes she's well-rounded and dangerous.

"I'm actually going to go with the underdog here of Unis duben she's undefeated six and0 she trains with rosam unas... she's got power to knock people out which is impressive to me in that division of women's …"
Fight Notes

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