UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno

Big Brady picks Deiveson Figueiredo to win by first-round knockout. He highlights Figueiredo's devastating power for the weight class and believes Moreno's durability will be tested. He notes Moreno has never been finished in his pro career but thinks Figueiredo's power is different. He is not concerned about Figueiredo's weight cut issues and likes him inside the distance.

Daniel believes Figueiredo is in a different class, with superior power and jiu-jitsu. He notes Moreno's solid boxing but thinks Figueiredo's impact, footwork, and shot selection will be too much. He predicts a stoppage in the fourth or fifth round, expecting Moreno to put up a decent fight but ultimately fall.

Figueiredo is the more powerful striker with better counter-punching. Moreno's hands-down style leaves him open to counters, and Figueiredo has the power to finish. Moreno's takedowns are not as effective as Perez's, so Figueiredo should be able to keep it standing and land big shots. Expect a second or third round KO.

The MMA Guru picks Deiveson Figueiredo, citing his finishing ability, strength, chin, and preparation. He notes Moreno's inactivity and damage taken in his last fight. He expects Figueiredo to win by guillotine in the first round, exploiting Moreno's takedown positioning. He acknowledges Moreno is dangerous but believes Figueiredo's edge is too much.

Big Brady picks Tony Ferguson to win by third-round knockout. He believes Ferguson's pace and volume will break Oliveira, who has cardio issues and has been finished in six of seven losses. He notes Oliveira's improved striking but thinks Ferguson's pressure and durability will be key. He is not in love with the -170 line but might look at inside the distance or under props.

Daniel acknowledges Ferguson's historical superiority and higher level of competition, but expresses concerns about Ferguson's recent interviews and potential damage from the Gaethje fight. He thinks Oliveira's boxing has improved but is not convinced Oliveira has truly turned a corner. He ultimately picks Ferguson but calls it a dog-or-pass situation, noting he is not confident.

Ferguson's relentless pressure and unorthodox style will break Oliveira, who has historically folded under pressure. Oliveira's best chance is an early finish, but if it goes past the first round, Ferguson will drown him. Ferguson's cardio and durability are superior. Expect a second-round TKO or submission for Ferguson.

The MMA Guru picks Tony Ferguson, despite many picking Oliveira. He believes Ferguson's chin, experience against better competition, and ability to win on the feet will be key. He expects Ferguson to win by TKO in the third round. He notes Oliveira's tendency to slow down and fail at the top level.

Big Brady picks Virna Jandiroba to win by decision. He believes the line should be a pick'em and sees value on Jandiroba as an underdog. He notes Jandiroba's superior wrestling and takedown accuracy, and that Dern has poor takedown defense and accuracy. He expects Jandiroba to control the fight with takedowns and avoid Dern's submissions.

Daniel thinks the jiu-jitsu will cancel out, so it comes down to striking. He notes Dern has one-hitter-quitter power and is tightening her boxing with Jason Parillo. He expects Dern to edge it out, but acknowledges Jandiroba's wrestling and control could make it close.

Both women are high-level jiu-jitsu players, but Dern has superior credentials and is working on her striking with Jason Parillo. Jandiroba's striking is also unpolished, so the fight likely goes to the ground where Dern may have an edge. However, this is a tough fight to call and Dern's improvements need to be seen. Leaning Dern by decision.

The MMA Guru picks Virna Jandiroba, noting her superior experience, reach advantage, and ability to stay out of submissions. He believes she will win a close unanimous decision by using her stand-up and fight IQ. He is skeptical of Mackenzie Dern's wins and thinks Jandiroba's jiu-jitsu is equally good.

Big Brady picks Jacare Souza to win by submission. He is concerned about Holland's poor takedown defense and submission history, and believes if Souza gets the fight to the mat, it's over. He notes Souza's superior competition and Holland's negative fight IQ. He passes on betting due to line movement but leans Souza.

Daniel is torn, acknowledging Holland's youth, reach, and hunger, but worried about his takedown defense and submission vulnerability. He notes Jacare's age and potential decline, but respects his jiu-jitsu. He picks Holland as a contrarian play since the line flipped, but calls it a very unconfident pick.

Souza is a high-level jiu-jitsu player who should be able to take Holland down and submit him. Holland has shown poor takedown defense and was submitted by Brendan Allen. Souza is older but still competitive, and his grappling is a huge threat. The line should be flipped; Souza is the better fighter here.

The MMA Guru picks Jacare Souza as an underdog, despite liking Kevin Holland. He believes Souza's chin, experience, and full camp will be key. He expects Holland to have a good first round but Souza to wear on him and get a submission win in the third round. He criticizes Holland's rapid fight schedule and lack of improvement.

Big Brady picks Ciryl Gane to win by second-round knockout. He notes Gane's reach advantage and JDS's declining chin, having been knocked out in three straight fights. He believes Gane's power will be enough to finish JDS and sees the fight staying on the feet. He thinks the line is fair and Gane is a solid parlay piece.

Daniel is very high on Gane, calling him the best heavyweight prospect on earth. He praises Gane's composure, kickboxing background, stance switching, and finishing ability. He believes Gane will knock out dos Santos, noting dos Santos's decline and chin issues. He suggests Gane might be a nice parlay piece.

Gane is younger, faster, and more athletic with excellent movement and striking. Dos Santos is on a three-fight losing streak and has been knocked out in his last two. Gane should be able to pick JDS apart from the outside and avoid the clinch. The -410 line is steep, but Gane is a safe parlay piece. Expect a decision win for Gane.

The MMA Guru picks Ciryl Gane, citing Junior dos Santos' recent KO losses and Gane's year-long training camp. He believes Gane will put power behind his shots and finish JDS in the first two rounds by TKO. He notes Gane's ability to turn it on when he wants and expects a dominant performance.

Big Brady picks Daniel Pineda to win by first-round submission. He highlights Pineda's 100% finish rate (27 wins all finishes) and Swanson's history of being submitted six times. He likes Pineda's recent form and believes he is in his prime, while Swanson is past his prime and coming off injury. He recommends betting Pineda inside the distance at +140.

Daniel is impressed with Pineda's resurgence, noting his 29 finishes and recent dominant performances. He questions Cub Swanson's level of competition and thinks Swanson is on his way out. He predicts Pineda will catch Cub with a submission, possibly his 20th submission win.

Pineda's wrestling and top pressure will be a nightmare for Swanson, who has struggled with grapplers. Pineda should be able to take Swanson down repeatedly and finish him via ground and pound or submission. Swanson's recent losses have come via submission, and Pineda's style matches up well. The under 2.5 rounds is a good prop.

The MMA Guru picks Cub Swanson, despite the long layoff due to injury. He believes Swanson's experience against good jiu-jitsu guys and his stand-up will be the difference. He expects Swanson to keep the fight standing and win a unanimous decision. He dismisses Daniel Pineda's wins as unimpressive and notes Pineda's past PED issues.

Big Brady picks Rafael Fiziev to win by second-round knockout. He believes Fiziev will stuff Moicano's takedowns (100% takedown defense in UFC) and land the better strikes. He notes Moicano has been finished in all three losses, two by knockout. He is not keen on the -155 price but sees value on Moicano as a dog.

Daniel thinks Moicano will surprise people at 155 pounds, citing his size, experience, and improved mindset. He acknowledges Fiziev's power and speed but believes Moicano's grappling and submission threat will be key. He calls it a dog-or-pass situation and picks the dog Moicano.

Fiziev is a talented kickboxer with excellent striking and takedown defense. Moicano is a solid grappler but has been knocked out recently. Fiziev should be able to keep the fight standing and outpoint Moicano. However, the line may have recency bias, and Moicano is still dangerous. Leaning Fiziev by decision, but passing on betting.

The MMA Guru picks Rafael Fiziev, citing Moicano's vulnerability to body kicks due to his tall stance and high elbows. He believes Fiziev's full camp and previous performance against Marc Diakiese outweigh Moicano's win over Damir Hadzovic. He expects a close decision win for Fiziev.

Big Brady picks Billy Quarantillo to win by decision. He likes Quarantillo's high output, durability, cardio, and ground game. He notes Tucker's 40% takedown defense and that Rick Glenn was able to take him down four times, which bodes well for Quarantillo's wrestling.

Daniel is high on Quarantillo's pressure, volume, and cardio. He questions Tucker's chin and heart, and thinks Quarantillo will walk him down and possibly finish him. He notes Quarantillo is in his prime and has paid his dues.

Tucker is the more technical striker with better speed and should be able to outpoint Quarantillo. Quarantillo's pressure style may be neutralized by Tucker's movement and body work. Tucker's jiu-jitsu is also high level, so he can hold his own on the ground. The line is a pick'em, but Tucker is the better all-around fighter.

The MMA Guru picks Billy Quarantillo in a close fight, noting Quarantillo's youth, size, range, and submission defense. He believes Quarantillo gets better as the fight goes on and will win a 29-28 unanimous decision. He acknowledges Gavin Tucker's grappling but thinks Quarantillo can survive the first round and take over.

Big Brady picks Tecia Torres (Pennington) to win by decision. He cites her massive speed and volume advantage, and notes that Hughes is a big step up in competition. He mentions Torres' recent win over Brianna Van Buren and her losses to top competition.

Daniel expects Tecia to roll, citing her recent impressive performance against Van Buren and her wins over top competition. He thinks Sam Hughes is taking a massive step up and will lose a decision.

The MMA Guru picks Angela Hill, despite her two recent losses (which he believes were actually wins). He cites Hill's reach advantage, natural size, and hunger to bounce back. He expects a close split decision. He acknowledges Tecia Torres is good but leans toward Hill.

Big Brady picks Chase Hooper to win by first-round submission. He notes Hooper's grappling advantage and Barrett's poor submission defense, but warns against betting Hooper at -400 due to the price. He suggests looking at a prop instead.

Daniel acknowledges Hooper's striking flaws but believes his jiu-jitsu is elite. He views Barrett as a tough brawler who has been submitted before and thinks Hooper will find a way to get the fight to the mat and submit him.

Hooper is the better grappler and should be able to get the fight to the ground against Barrett, who has poor takedown defense. Hooper's jiu-jitsu is elite and he will likely secure a submission in the first or second round. The -400 line is too wide for a developing fighter, but Hooper should win comfortably.

The MMA Guru picks Chase Hooper, citing Hooper's youth and potential for improvement, while noting Peter Barrett's weak competition and lack of impressive wins. He believes Hooper's size and strength will lead to a submission in the first or second round. He acknowledges Hooper is a massive favorite, which is risky, but still picks him.