Mackenzie Dern

Angelo picks Virna Jandiroba based on gut feeling, despite the line moving against her. He expects the fight to be entirely on the ground, where Virna's wrestling and safe jiu-jitsu will grind out a win. He notes Mackenzie's only path is submission, but Virna won't take risks like Amanda Ribas did. Angelo plans to bet Virna if the line rebounds.

Big Brady picks Mackenzie Dern, highlighting her massive improvements in striking and wrestling. He notes Dern's striking looked incredible against Angela Hill and that she now has power and aggression. He believes Dern's pressure and volume will overwhelm Virna Jandiroba on the feet, as Jandiroba lacks power and may be hesitant to grapple. Brady also cites the five-round distance favoring Dern's cardio and toughness, predicting a fourth-round TKO.

Cody picks Mackenzie Dern, arguing that over five rounds, Dern's volume, speed, and willingness to engage will outpace Jandiroba's control-heavy style. He notes that Jandiroba's wrestling is elite but she lacks striking output, and Dern's submission defense and scrambling make her dangerous off her back. Cody believes Dern's path is a decision win, as she lands more and is faster.

Connor picks Jandiroba, taking a chance on her improvements in confidence and physicality since the first fight. He believes her wrestling-focused BJJ, reminiscent of Damien Maia, can neutralize Dern's guard attacks if she commits to grappling. He admits it's a hopeful pick but thinks Jandiroba has the tools to win if she doesn't repeat her negative game plan.

Daniel Vreeland believes Mackenzie Dern's striking evolution and power give her the edge, especially as the fight progresses and Jandiroba slows down. He thinks the ground game will cancel out early, but Dern's improved hands and cardio will allow her to take over in later rounds. He also notes that the winner of the first fight often wins the rematch, especially with an age gap.

Lucrative James picks Mackenzie Dern, citing her multiple paths to victory: she can win on the feet, by submission, or by outscrambling. He believes Dern has improved her boxing and wrestling, while Jandiroba's usual path of outgrappling opponents will be neutralized because Dern is dangerous from bottom and can sweep or submit her. He also notes Dern's better cardio and power, and predicts Jandiroba will get rocked at some point. He sees Dern as the underdog with value.

The host expects Dern to replicate her 2020 win by putting together better striking, scrambling well in grappling, and winning a clear decision to become the new strawweight champion.

Paul agrees with Cody, adding that Dern has a great chin and throws more volume. He notes that Jandiroba's path to victory relies on takedowns and control, but Dern is crafty off her back. Paul also mentions that Jandiroba has never fought five rounds in the UFC and is 37, suggesting that if she wins early rounds, she may fade, making Dern a strong live bet as well.

The MMA Guru picks Virna Jandiroba by decision, expecting a split decision. He believes Jandiroba is more focused on her career than Dern, who has personal distractions. He notes that Jandiroba has been winning against top competition (Yan Xiaonan, Amanda Lemos) and has good takedowns and control. He references their first fight where Jandiroba had control time and takedowns. He expects a low-paced fight with Jandiroba dragging Dern around, winning clearly but with one judge giving Dern a round.

Angelo picks Amanda Ribas, noting that she dominated the first fight and has improved her striking since. He believes Ribas is the better striker and wrestler, and that her takedown defense and cardio will be key. He thinks the five rounds favor Ribas, as Dern's danger decreases as the fight goes on. He mentions Jacob had a big bet on Ribas at plus money when she was an underdog.

Big Brady notes that Dern has improved her striking and takedown accuracy since their first fight, but still considers her wrestling and striking not great. He highlights Ribas's elite takedown defense (85%) and her own grappling ability, meaning she won't be afraid to grapple. He predicts Ribas will dictate where the fight takes place and win by decision, though not as dominant as the first fight.

Cody leans toward Ribas despite the -200 price, citing Dern's inability to chain wrestle and finish submissions over three years. He notes Dern's mental lapses in later rounds and Ribas's forward pressure and power. He suggests a live bet strategy, expecting Ribas to win rounds 3-5 as Dern fades.

Connor picks Ribas because she has a fundamental technical advantage on the feet and a style that counters Dern's approach. He notes that Dern's striking defense is nonexistent and she cannot land the same strike twice due to poor technique. Ribas is comfortable trading and landing cleaner counters, as seen in their first fight. Dern's path to victory requires a simple aggressive game plan, but she lacks the technical ability to execute it consistently.

Daniel acknowledges Ribas is more technically sound but notes her chinny defect, having been knocked out by multiple opponents. He thinks Ribas will dominate but could get cracked, so he passes on betting. As a pure pick, he goes with Ribas via decision, citing her superior technique and the fact that she usually needs to be finished to lose. He also mentions Dern's improved hands but still favors Ribas.

Lucrative James confidently picks Amanda Ribas, having placed a bet at -160. He believes Ribas is better in all facets of MMA, as shown in their first fight. He notes that five rounds favor Ribas's cardio and experience, though Dern's danger (power, submissions) offsets it slightly. He hasn't seen enough improvement from Dern to change the outcome. He also mentions that the line has moved to -200, giving him CLV.

Ribas is still ahead of Dern and should stop Dern's poor wrestling. Ribas will be more effective and active with her striking, busting up Dern and winning on the scorecards in this rematch from 2019.

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Dern's improved focus but still rudimentary wrestling. He highlights Ribas's takedown defense and well-roundedness, and that Dern went 0 for 6 on takedowns in their first fight. He is not excited about -200 but sees Ribas as the rightful favorite.

The Guru struggles with this pick, initially leaning towards Dern but then recalling that Ribas won the first fight by stuffing takedowns and outstriking Dern. He notes Dern's poor striking and Ribas's suspect chin but ultimately goes with Ribas, predicting a TKO in round 3 or 4. He expresses frustration with the difficulty of the pick.

Angelo picks Godinez but is hesitant due to her notoriously low fight IQ. He thinks she is the better fighter everywhere except BJJ, with better striking, wrestling, and athleticism. He notes Dern's poor takedown accuracy and reliance on toughness. He bet only a quarter unit because he doesn't trust Godinez.

Big Brady is taking another underdog, citing Godinez's superior wrestling and boxing on the feet. He notes Dern has poor takedown accuracy (15%) and cannot take Godinez down, while Godinez should keep the fight standing and outpoint Dern. However, he admits he doesn't trust Godinez either, calling it a weird fight.

Cody picks Loopy Godinez, citing her superior boxing and wrestling. He notes that Dern has poor takedown accuracy and has been roughed up on the feet recently. Cody thinks Godinez can stuff takedowns and win a volume decision. However, he acknowledges Dern's ability to create scrambles and capitalize on mistakes, so he's not fully confident. He mentions that Godinez is a slight underdog and that women's MMA is volatile.

Daniel picks Dern, citing her toughness and ability to overcome adversity. He criticizes Godinez's fight IQ and tendency to abandon game plans. He believes Dern will gas pedal Godinez and be the tougher fighter, despite potential striking exchanges.

Godinez should avoid the clinch and use footwork to out-strike Dern, stuffing takedowns. She should land better damage and win on the scorecards.

Paul picks Loopy Godinez, noting that she is the better striker and can avoid Dern's grappling. He thinks Godinez's volume and takedown defense should be enough to win a decision. Paul acknowledges Dern's scrambling ability but believes Godinez can stay away and win on the feet. He also mentions that Godinez went the distance with Virna Jandiroba, which looks good in hindsight.

Angelo picks Amanda Lemos, citing her superior striking and takedown defense. He rants about Mackenzie Dern's poor wrestling and 14% takedown accuracy, despite her elite BJJ. He notes Lemos is coming off a bad loss but believes her takedown defense is more than enough to keep the fight standing. He calls the odds fantastic.

Big Brady picks Mackenzie Dern as a dog but with very low confidence. He notes Dern's inconsistency, looking great against Angela Hill but terrible against Jessica Andrade. He thinks if Dern gets the fight to the ground, she can submit Lemos, who has been tapped before. He says he won't bet this fight and is staying far away, but as a pick he goes with Dern by submission.

Cody agrees with Paul, noting Dern's durability and BJJ threat. He mentions that Lemos could get a knockout, but Dern has shown she can take bombs. He believes Dern only needs one takedown to close the show. He picks Dern moneyline without chasing props.

Daniel Vreeland does not make a clear pick, calling it a coin flip. He notes Lemos's power and leg kick potential but is concerned about her tendency to flop to her back, as seen against Zhang. He acknowledges Dern's elite BJJ but questions her wrestling and striking. He stays away from betting on this fight.

Daniel picks Amanda Lemos hard, despite being a fan of Mackenzie Dern's grappling style. He thinks Dern won't be able to get the fight to the ground due to Lemos' strength, good boxing, and takedown defense. He also cites Dern's short notice and Lemos' reach advantage. He believes Lemos should be a -200 favorite and is all in on her.

Jeff picks Amanda Lemos, calling it a good number. He notes that Dern struggles with her wrestling and striking, and doesn't look great on the feet. He points out that Lemos just fought for the belt and has a reach advantage. He thinks Lemos should be a -200 favorite or better, so -130 is a good price.

Lemos is a dangerous power puncher who can keep Dern at bay. Dern is inconsistent and unable to complete takedowns. Expects Lemos to find a knockout in the second round.

Paul picks Dern, citing her superior Jiu-Jitsu and improved striking. He notes Lemos' low volume and 55% takedown defense, which could allow Dern to get the fight to the ground. He highlights Dern's durability and cardio, and believes she can outwork Lemos on the feet or submit her. He sees value at plus money.

Angelo picks Dern, citing her improved striking and elite BJJ. He notes Andrade's takedown defense is poor and Dern can pull guard or climb for submissions. He already bet a full unit on Dern at -177 and is confident she gets it done.

Big Brady picks Mackenzie Dern to win by first-round submission. He believes Dern is improving her wrestling and striking, while Andrade is on a decline and doesn't seem to care anymore. He notes Andrade has been easily submitted recently by top grapplers, and Dern is the best grappler in the division. Brady thinks one takedown from Dern will end the fight quickly.

Cody picks Dern, noting Andrade's recent decline and disinterest in fights. He highlights Dern's improvements in striking and wrestling under Henry Cejudo, and her durability. He believes Dern can win on the feet or on the ground, and that Andrade's best path (wrestling) is nullified by Dern's BJJ.

James picks Mackenzie Dern to win, though he is annoyed at the -200 price. He thinks Andrade has stylistic advantages on the feet with more power, but Dern has durability, pace, and grappling to offset that. He believes Dern only needs one takedown to dominate and finish, and Andrade has been finished in her last three losses. He suggests playing Dern inside the distance rather than moneyline.

Andrade's power will be the difference. Dern has never been hit by someone with Andrade's power and will struggle to close distance. Andrade will stuff takedowns and make Dern pay every time she crashes the pocket. Expects Andrade to land big strikes and potentially find a knockout victory in the first or second round. The line at +165 is a value due to recency bias from Dern's win over Hill.

Paul agrees, emphasizing Andrade's regression and Dern's upward trajectory. He notes Andrade has looked flat and disinterested, while Dern is coming into her prime with improved cardio and focus. He thinks Dern wins wherever the fight goes, and that Andrade's wrestling won't be enough.

Angelo picks Mackenzie Dern because the fight is now five rounds, which benefits Dern's dangerous grappling and cardio. He notes that Dern never quits and the extra time gives her more chances to catch Angela Hill. He expects a close fight but believes Dern's finishing ability is the difference. He plans to bet on Dern by inside the distance (decision no action) if the odds are better than -350.

Big Brady picks Mackenzie Dern to submit Angela Hill, possibly in any round. He notes Dern is younger, improving her striking and wrestling, and has a huge advantage on the ground. He believes Dern will eventually get a takedown and submit Hill, similar to how Randa Markos submitted Hill. He acknowledges Hill's takedown defense is good but thinks Dern's pressure and power will wear her down over five rounds.

Cody argues that Mackenzie Dern's takedown success is inconsistent, especially in five-round fights, and she lacks striking volume. He notes Dern's poor striking defense and low output, while Angela Hill has excellent volume, cardio, and submission defense. He sees Hill winning by outworking Dern on the feet over five rounds.

Connor picks Dern despite acknowledging Hill's advantages over five rounds. He argues that Dern's hyper-aggressive grappling and ability to create instant submission threats from awkward positions will give her chances early, and that Hill hasn't faced a grappler with that kind of venom. He admits that if Dern doesn't finish in the first round and a half, Hill likely wins, but he can't shake the image of Dern wrapping up a leg for a quick submission.

Daniel Levi leans toward Mackenzie Dern but is not confident. He acknowledges Dern's elite BJJ and submission threat, but questions her takedown offense (11% accuracy, less than 1 takedown per 15 minutes) and striking defense. He notes Angela Hill has 77% takedown defense and hasn't been submitted since 2019, and that strikers like Yan Xiaonan and Marina Rodriguez survived Dern's ground game. He sees Hill as superior on the feet and thinks the blueprint to beat Dern exists. Ultimately, he picks Dern via submission but says it's a 'dog or pass' situation and there's no value at -175.

James sees this as a 50-50 fight but favors Angela Hill due to the plus-160 line, which he believes offers value. He notes that Hill has above-average takedown defense and will likely keep the fight standing, where she can outpoint Dern. However, he acknowledges Dern's submission threat and the possibility of Dern winning via decision if she gets takedowns in three rounds. He is hesitant and not fully committed to betting Hill yet, considering hedging with Dern submission.

The host leans toward Angela Hill but is the least confident on this fight. He thinks Hill's footwork, output, and takedown defense could allow her to batter Dern on the feet and win by decision. He notes Dern could also win quickly by submission if she gets takedowns. He suggests a round 4 or 5 decision prop but says he won't put money on either side.

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that the betting lines suggest a striking affair. He points out that Dern's takedown line is low (1 takedown) and that Hill's takedown defense has been adequate against good grapplers. He sees value in Hill at +150 and expects her to win a striking decision.

The MMA Guru picks Mackenzie Dern, believing her grappling will be the difference in a five-round fight. He notes Dern is younger (30 vs 38) and still improving, while Angela Hill rarely finishes. He expects the fight to hit the ground at some point, citing Michelle Waterson's success in taking Hill down. He predicts Dern will win by submission in round three, as her BJJ is a major threat.

Cody also picks Dern by submission but expresses hesitations about her takedown accuracy (9%) and ability to get the fight to the ground consistently. He notes that Yan Xiaonan is tough and has good takedown defense, and that Dern's path to victory is entirely on the mat. He suggests live betting Yan if Dern fails to secure early takedowns, and mentions that Dern's submission win is the most logical outcome but not a lock.

Paul picks Mackenzie Dern by submission, noting her world-class jiu-jitsu and ability to get the fight to the ground via pulling guard or ugly clinch work. He acknowledges her one-dimensional striking and that Yan Xiaonan will likely win the standup, but believes Dern's durability and submission threat will prevail. He mentions the over/under on prize picks and the inside distance prop, but his official pick is Dern by submission.

Angelo confidently picks Tecia Torres (Pennington). He criticizes Dern's poor takedown accuracy (10%) and overconfidence in striking. He believes Torres' volume, boxing, and cardio will keep the fight standing, and even if it goes to the ground, Torres can avoid submissions. He plans to bet on Torres.

Big Brady picks Tecia Torres to win by decision. He sees the fight as a coin flip: if Dern gets it to the mat, she submits Torres; if Torres stuffs takedowns, she outstrikes Dern. Torres has better striking and has been focusing on strength and conditioning. Dern has poor takedown accuracy (10%). Brady has zero confidence and won't bet it.

Cody leans Torres but is not fully confident. He acknowledges Dern's submission threat but thinks Torres' speed and volume will be key. Cody notes Dern's takedown struggles and that Torres has been taken down before, but believes the big cage favors Torres. He considers Dern by submission at +250 as a possible path but thinks Torres wins by decision more often.

Levi acknowledges Tecia Torres's volume and striking advantage, but believes Dern's elite jiu-jitsu is a step above the competition. He thinks Dern will eventually get a hold of Torres and take the fight to the mat, possibly finishing by submission. He is not betting this fight because Torres could avoid takedowns and win a decision, but he picks Dern.

I think Torres is the better fighter with superior speed, combinations, and takedown defense. Dern has poor takedown accuracy (3 of 28 in UFC) and Torres will keep the fight standing. Torres will get in and out with strikes and win a decision. I also like Torres by TKO at +600 as a sprinkle.

Paul likes Torres at even money, citing her far better striking, speed, and experience. He notes Dern's takedowns are a mess and that Torres has only lost to the best in the division. Paul thinks Torres boxes Dern up, staying in and out, and that Dern's only path is a submission, which is unlikely. He expects Torres to win by decision, which is plus money.

Angelo picks Marina Rodriguez, calling her the more complete fighter with superior striking and takedown defense. He notes her wins over top competition and Dern's poor takedown accuracy. He has a money line bet on Rodriguez at plus 145. He thinks Dern's only path is submission, but Rodriguez can avoid the ground.

Big Brady, despite being a self-proclaimed Dern hater, picks her to win by submission. He notes that Dern only needs one takedown to finish the fight, and Rodriguez has poor takedown defense and ground game. He references Rodriguez being taken down by multiple opponents and her poor get-up game. Brady thinks Dern will eventually get the takedown and submit her, but he would not bet her as a favorite at these odds.

Cody leans toward Dern because he believes the fight will eventually hit the ground over five rounds, where Dern's BJJ is leaps and bounds better than Rodriguez's. He notes Rodriguez has a clear striking advantage and Dern's wrestling is not elite, but Dern has shown improvements and can capitalize on scrambles. He suggests live betting Dern after she loses the early rounds, and predicts a third or fourth round submission or a decision.

Daniel Levi acknowledges that Marina Rodriguez is a superior striker, comparing her to a young Joanna Jedrzejczyk, but he is concerned about her takedown defense. He notes that Mackenzie Dern's hands have improved under Jason Parillo and she has power, but her path to victory is getting the fight to the mat. He predicts Dern will secure a takedown and finish via submission, though he admits if Dern doesn't submit her early, the fight becomes uncertain.

Jacob is extremely confident in Mackenzie Dern, calling her the lock of the week. He believes her jiu-jitsu is unmatched and that if the fight goes to the ground, she will submit Rodriguez. He dismisses Rodriguez's striking improvements and plans to bet 20 units on Dern at minus 160. He thinks Dern's striking has improved enough to get the fight to the mat.

The host picks Mackenzie Dern, citing her elite BJJ and ability to secure a takedown against Marina Rodriguez. He notes that Rodriguez has been taken down before (e.g., by Amanda Ribas) and that Dern's jiu-jitsu is superior. He believes Dern can remain safe on the feet long enough to close the distance and get the fight to the ground, where she will likely find a submission. He also mentions the low variance of grappling compared to striking, favoring the grappler. He predicts a second-round submission.

Paul is leaning toward Dern, acknowledging that Rodriguez has advantages on the feet but Dern's submission threat and improved striking make her dangerous. He notes Dern's wrestling is not great but she can create chaotic scrambles. He is hesitant because Dern has cost him money before, but he sees her path to victory via submission or decision.

Big Brady is very confident in Nunes, calling her one of his most confident picks on the card. He highlights Nunes' excellent takedown defense (77%) and her ability to stuff takedowns from elite wrestlers like Tatiana Suarez. He criticizes Dern's takedown accuracy (5%) and zero takedown defense, arguing that Dern cannot get the fight to the mat. Brady believes Nunes will out-strike Dern and win a one-sided decision. He already bet Nunes at -110 and is happy with the pick.

Cody picks Nunes by decision, citing her superior game planning, striking volume, and takedown defense. He notes Dern's poor takedown accuracy and that Nunes can survive on the ground. He thinks Nunes will pepper Dern on the feet and win a decision.

Daniel Levi picks Nina Nunes, but expresses concern about her coming back after pregnancy, noting that many female fighters lay an egg in their first fight back. He thinks Nunes is the better overall fighter with good calf kicks and improving takedown defense, and if she keeps the fight standing and pulls the trigger, she can win a decision. However, he acknowledges that if Dern takes her back, it could be trouble.

The host thinks Nunes has the striking advantage with her jab and movement, and that Dern's takedown accuracy is poor. He notes that Dern's striking improvements are overblown, as she hasn't faced a striker of Nunes' caliber. He picks Nunes to win by decision, though he acknowledges the layoff and motherhood are concerns.

Paul picks Nunes, emphasizing her elite coaching at ATT, striking volume, and ability to avoid Dern's submissions. He notes Dern's takedown struggles and that Nunes can outwork her. He acknowledges the pregnancy layoff but thinks Nunes is the more refined fighter.

Big Brady picks Virna Jandiroba to win by decision. He believes the line should be a pick'em and sees value on Jandiroba as an underdog. He notes Jandiroba's superior wrestling and takedown accuracy, and that Dern has poor takedown defense and accuracy. He expects Jandiroba to control the fight with takedowns and avoid Dern's submissions.

Daniel thinks the jiu-jitsu will cancel out, so it comes down to striking. He notes Dern has one-hitter-quitter power and is tightening her boxing with Jason Parillo. He expects Dern to edge it out, but acknowledges Jandiroba's wrestling and control could make it close.

Both women are high-level jiu-jitsu players, but Dern has superior credentials and is working on her striking with Jason Parillo. Jandiroba's striking is also unpolished, so the fight likely goes to the ground where Dern may have an edge. However, this is a tough fight to call and Dern's improvements need to be seen. Leaning Dern by decision.

Big Brady picks Randa Markos, citing Dern's poor wrestling (7% takedown accuracy) and striking. He believes the fight will stay on the feet where Markos is the better striker, and Markos has stated she will avoid Dern's strength. He expects a close decision win for Markos.

The host sees this as a 50/50 fight where the winner depends on who imposes their game. He thinks Dern's best path is to get the fight to the ground and use her elite jiu-jitsu for a submission, but he questions her ability to secure takedowns against Markos. He notes Markos has the striking advantage and could outpoint Dern if she keeps it standing. He picks Dern by submission but acknowledges the value is on Markos at +145.

Big Brady picks Mackenzie Dern to win by submission in the second round. He thinks Dern is better everywhere and that once she takes Cifers down, the fight will be over quickly due to Dern's elite BJJ. He notes that Cifers was taken down and finished by Angela Hill, so Dern should have no trouble. He sees no path to victory for Cifers.

Daniel picks Dern by submission, contingent on her getting a takedown. He notes that Dern's striking may not look -450, but if the fight hits the mat, she is a -4500 favorite. He acknowledges Dern's low takedown accuracy but believes she can take Cifers down and finish quickly.