Kevin Holland

Angelo picks Randy Brown, expressing frustration with Kevin Holland's unreliability and lack of care. He believes Brown is better everywhere, more serious, and has more power. He ends the cycle of picking Holland with caveats, stating Brown is the clear choice.

Big Brady is done with Kevin Holland due to his poor fight IQ and inconsistency. He thinks Randy Brown is the more skilled striker and will outstrike Holland, but worries about Brown's chin (recent KO losses). He expects a striking match and picks Brown by decision, but will not bet on the fight.

Cody also picks Brown, noting Holland's one-foot-in-one-foot-out mentality and Brown's speed advantage. He thinks Brown's desire and game plan will edge out a close fight.

Connor picks Randy Brown because Kevin Holland is cooked and doesn't care about fighting anymore. He notes that Holland is a goofy, messy fighter who doesn't want to do the right things, while Brown is capable of impressive performances despite occasional dumb mistakes. He expects a fun fight but trusts Brown's ability to outwork Holland.

Daniel is on the 'Fade Kevin Holland' tour, citing Holland's poor mentality and fight IQ. He thinks Brown will care more and perform better under less pressure.

Daniel Vreeland picks Randy Brown as part of the 'fade Kevin Holland world tour.' He believes Holland lacks motivation and fight IQ, while Brown is more focused and has the tools to outpoint him. He notes that Brown's jab and technical striking should be enough to win a decision or even get a finish.

James picks Kevin Holland, believing he has more power and durability, and will come on as the fight progresses. He notes Brown may start well but expects Holland to find his rhythm.

Brown is the better technical striker with a huge reach advantage. Holland's ego may lead him to strike with Brown, which is a mistake. Brown can pick Holland apart from distance and has good defensive grappling to avoid Holland's submissions. Holland's recent losses show he struggles against disciplined strikers. Brown should win a decision or even get a finish.

Paul picks Brown, citing Holland's declining desire and Brown's speed and crisp striking. He thinks Brown's jab and right hand will be effective against the similar-framed Holland.

The MMA Guru picks Randy Brown over Kevin Holland. He thinks Brown will fight on the outside with low kicks and body shots, while Holland is an opportunist who doesn't follow game plans. He notes Brown's chin is suspect but believes he can win a 29-28 decision, possibly with Holland taking a close round.

Angelo picks Mike Malott, citing his high fight IQ, technical improvements after the Magny loss, and well-rounded skills. He criticizes Kevin Holland's inconsistency and poor performance against Daniel Rodriguez, calling it an all-time low. He trusts Malott's control and power.

Big Brady has zero trust in Kevin Holland after his loss to Daniel Rodriguez, calling him a dumbass and declining. He questions Malott's durability and cardio but picks him by default. He predicts Malott takes Holland down and submits him, noting Holland's ground game stinks.

Cody picks Malott, citing Kevin Holland's recent durability issues and high fight frequency. He notes Holland was knocked down twice by Daniel Rodriguez, a sign of declining chin. Malott has a wrestling advantage and can mix takedowns with striking. Cody believes Malott will win by decision or late stoppage, especially with home crowd support.

Connor picks Malott, emphasizing that Holland cannot be trusted to fight disciplined. He notes that Malott is proficient and consistent, with sharp boxing in the pocket. Connor points out that Holland's approach of 'having fun' leads to messy fights, and his chin may be deteriorating after getting hurt by Daniel Rodriguez. He believes Malott can outwork Holland.

James admits he has a poor track record betting on Malott fights but picks Malott due to his skill set and potential improvements after the Neil Magny loss. He questions Kevin Holland's recent form and durability, noting Holland's poor performance against Daniel Rodriguez. James expects a slow-paced fight and predicts Malott via decision, though he is not confident.

The host thinks this is a tough stylistic matchup for Malott. He believes Holland can pick Malott apart from distance with his speed, range, and distance work, and will eventually find a big shot to put Malott away.

Paul picks Holland, arguing that the D-Rod fight was on short notice and Holland has had three months to prepare. He believes Holland's length and reach advantage will be key, and that Malott may gas as he did against Magny. Paul sees value in Holland as a dog and plans to bet him.

The MMA Guru picks Mike Malott over Kevin Holland. He notes Malott's submission skills and takedowns, and his game plan against Neil Magny. He criticizes Holland's inconsistency and chin issues. He predicts Malott will chew at the leg, get takedowns, and finish by arm triangle submission in round two.

Angelo picks Kevin Holland, citing his speed, power, and accuracy at welterweight. He notes that Daniel Rodriguez is a pure boxer with no takedown threat, so Holland's takedown defense won't be tested. He expects Holland to run through Rodriguez.

Big Brady confidently picks Kevin Holland, noting Rodriguez's age (38), recent poor performances, and lack of wrestling. He believes Holland's height, reach, and power will lead to a first-round knockout. He dismisses Rodriguez's prison fight experience as irrelevant.

Connor picks Holland because he is significantly faster than Rodriguez, who appears slower than ever. He notes that Holland always has a high work rate even in his worst performances, while Rodriguez's recent wins have come against equally old and beatable opponents. He sees this as a straightforward win for Holland.

The host sees this as a great stylistic matchup for Holland, expecting him to pick apart Rodriguez from distance and utilize his speed and stinging power to line up a knockout.

The MMA Guru picks Kevin Holland over Daniel Rodriguez, predicting a decision win. He notes Holland's durability, reach advantage (7 inches), and better cardio, while Rodriguez is described as a scrapper with bad fight IQ. The Guru believes Holland will out-point Rodriguez over three rounds, possibly with a late finish, but expects it to go the distance. He also mentions a prop bet that the fight will last more than 10 minutes.

Angelo picks Vicente Luque over Kevin Holland because he trusts Vicente to execute a game plan, while Kevin is unreliable with poor takedown defense and a lack of care. He notes Kevin's takedown defense is still poor despite his length and jiu-jitsu. He thinks even a fraction of Vicente's wrestling from the Dos Anjos fight will be enough.

Big Brady is very confident in Kevin Holland, citing Luque's recent durability issues and quitting in his last fight. He believes Luque will try to wrestle but Holland is hard to wrestle at welterweight. He expects the fight to stay on the feet where Holland will hurt Luque and knock him out early, possibly in the first round. He notes Luque's brain hemorrhage and that he shouldn't be fighting.

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Holland. He emphasizes that Luque has slowed down and his reactions are worse, while Holland is still physically sharp. Connor notes that Holland's best performances come when he is not forced to pressure, and Luque's forward pressure will allow Holland to counter effectively. He sees this as a winnable matchup for Holland.

The host went back and forth on this fight. He ultimately sticks with Kevin Holland winning by knockout due to his speed and power, but notes that Vicente Luque is a very live underdog, especially if he can get takedowns and use his submission game.

The MMA Guru picks Kevin Holland, despite being a big fan of Luque. He believes Holland's range and volume will be key, as Luque struggles against fighters who stay at range and don't overcommit. He notes Holland's durability and ability to fight from bottom. He predicts a decision win for Holland, possibly 29-28, with Luque winning a round.

Angelo picks Kevin Holland despite his poor takedown defense, arguing that skill-wise Holland is the better fighter. He notes that Holland is likely fighting for his job at welterweight and will be motivated. He criticizes Gunnar Nelson's inactivity (2 years), poor striking differential, and lack of wins over active UFC fighters. He has a small bet on Holland.

Brady is very hesitant but picks Holland, calling it 'One Last Ride'. He notes Nelson is 36, inactive (2 fights in 5 years), has no striking, and is coming off a 2-year layoff. Holland has an astronomical striking advantage and is fighting at welterweight where he belongs. Brady predicts a second-round knockout.

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Nelson. He highlights Holland's inability to wrestle seriously and his tendency to fall apart when pressured. Nelson's striking, though limited, will force Holland to close distance, leading to takedowns and submissions. Connor is confident Nelson will look the same despite the layoff.

The host notes Nelson doesn't fight often but still showcases superb jiu-jitsu. He expects Nelson to get a body lock, drag the fight to the ground, find the back, and secure a submission win over Holland.

The Guru confidently picks Gunnar Nelson, citing his superior jiu-jitsu and takedown entries. He expects Nelson to get a takedown, take Holland's back, and secure a rear-naked choke in the first round. He notes that Holland is susceptible to grapplers and has not finished anyone early in a long time. He acknowledges a small chance Holland lands a 45-70 kick but dismisses it.

Angelo picks Reinier de Ridder but with hesitation. He believes de Ridder can exploit Kevin Holland's takedown defense and win via grappling. However, he worries about de Ridder's reckless ground decision-making, as seen in his UFC debut where he gave up positions. He thinks Holland's durability and jiu-jitsu could make it a decision win for de Ridder.

Cody picks Reinier de Ridder, citing the blueprint to beat Kevin Holland: take him down and control him. He notes that Holland struggles with wrestlers at middleweight, as seen against Derek Brunson and Marvin Vettori. De Ridder is a large middleweight with strong judo and grappling, and Cody believes he will close the distance, clinch, and take Holland down repeatedly. He also points out that Holland has never faced an opponent taller than him, but de Ridder is 6'4". Cody expects a submission or dominant decision.

Connor picks de Ridder, citing his size, grappling, and ability to bait Holland into a grappling exchange. He notes that Holland's core is a BJJ player who sees wrestling as an invitation to grapple, which plays into de Ridder's strengths. Connor points out that de Ridder is huge and tough, and even though he's a poor striker, his lead hand and jab can set up takedowns. He believes Holland's poor takedown defense and tendency to engage in losing grappling battles will lead to a de Ridder win. Connor also mentions that de Ridder has only lost to massive powerhouses, which Holland is not.

Daniel picks de Ridder, continuing his fade of Kevin Holland. He notes that de Ridder attempted 13 takedowns in his debut and believes he only needs to take Holland down once to win. Daniel thinks de Ridder will submit Holland and took him at +126 for 2 units. He mentions that Holland is a prize fighter without title aspirations, while de Ridder is hungry.

Lucrative James picks Reinier de Ridder, citing his superior grappling and jiu-jitsu, which should exploit Kevin Holland's known weakness against grapplers. He notes Holland's poor takedown defense and tendency to abandon game plans, while de Ridder's judo trips and submissions (arm triangle, rear-naked choke) are live threats. James believes de Ridder only needs a couple of takedowns to win rounds or secure a submission, and that Holland's rangy striking style plays into de Ridder's comfort zone. He also questions Holland's motivation, contrasting it with de Ridder's title aspirations.

The host notes de Ridder had a successful UFC debut and wants to showcase his BJJ. Holland is also a BJJ black belt with a striking advantage, but the host thinks Holland will struggle to keep de Ridder off him, leading to de Ridder finding a dominant position and getting a submission victory.

Paul agrees with Cody, picking de Ridder. He notes that Holland has always struggled with takedown defense at middleweight and that de Ridder's grappling should be the difference. Paul was impressed with de Ridder's submission win over Gerald Meerschaert and believes the same game plan will work against Holland. He advises de Ridder to avoid striking exchanges and lean on takedowns early and often.

The MMA Guru picks Reinier de Ridder to submit Kevin Holland. He notes Holland is a fish out of water when taken down, and de Ridder has a massive strength advantage. He expects de Ridder to get on top and submit Holland early or in the second round. He also questions Holland's quitting tendency.

Angelo picks Roman Dolidze to win inside the distance, betting on his superior grappling. He notes Dolidze is a world champion grappler and should easily take down Kevin Holland, who has poor takedown defense. However, he expresses concern that Dolidze might not use his grappling and could get out-struck. He recommends betting 'Win inside the distance - decision no action' to mitigate risk, as Dolidze often wins by decision or finish.

Big Brady picks Roman Dolidze by submission in the second round, citing Holland's well-known weakness against wrestlers who can take him down and hold him down. He notes Dolidze is a big, strong middleweight with excellent grappling, and Holland has been submitted before. He also mentions a possible decision win if Dolidze controls with clinching and top pressure.

Cody picks Holland, emphasizing his speed, reach, and volume striking. He doubts Dolidze's wrestling and BJJ effectiveness, noting Holland's takedown defense and submission skills. He believes Holland can outpoint Dolidze on the feet.

Connor also picks Dolidze, agreeing that Dolidze's size and strength will be decisive. He notes that Dolidze is a nasty opportunistic grappler and that Holland's tendency to get tied up will play into Dolidze's hands. Connor thinks this is a terrible matchup for Holland and expects a dull, grinding win for Dolidze.

Daniel Vreeland is confident in Roman Dolidze, having bet on him at plus money. He believes Dolidze's physicality and grappling will be too much for Kevin Holland, who gives up easy takedowns. Vreeland points to common opponents like Marvin Vettori and Kyle Daukaus, where Dolidze performed better than Holland. He expects Dolidze to pin Holland against the fence, take him down, and eventually submit him.

Daniel Vreeland picks Roman Dolidze over Kevin Holland. He notes that Dolidze is a good grappler with sharp transitions, and that Holland's weakness is being outgrappled by strong grapplers. He also criticizes Holland for fighting at middleweight, where he is undersized and gets bullied, whereas Dolidze has fought at light heavyweight and can handle the size. Vreeland believes Dolidze will get the ground game going and potentially submit Holland, though he acknowledges Holland hasn't been submitted in a while.

Jeff Fox picks Kevin Holland but is hesitant. He notes that Holland won his last fight but didn't look good, and that he fought up a weight class. Fox is afraid Holland will get underneath his opponent on the ground and just do what he does, lying on his back. He hopes Holland doesn't do that because he's a good enough grappler not to have to, and he's the better striker. Fox acknowledges it's hard to pick Kevin Holland.

The host is surprised the line is as close as it is. He believes Dolidze's reckless fighting style will lead him to be picked apart by Kevin Holland, who is quicker and more accurate with shots down the pipe. He expects good footwork, range management, and solid grappling defense from Holland to keep the fight standing and win on the scorecards.

Paul picks Dolidze, citing his physicality and ability to make the fight ugly. He worries about Holland's chin and thinks Dolidze can close the distance and use his strength. He notes Dolidze's recent volume striking against Anthony Smith.

The MMA Guru picks Roman Dolidze over Kevin Holland, citing Dolidze's chin, leg kicks, and top control. He notes Dolidze trains at altitude and is active, while Holland's late-round finishing ability is questionable at altitude. He believes Dolidze will low kick Holland and eventually get takedowns, using his size advantage. He also mentions Holland's submission threat off his back but thinks Dolidze will be cautious.

Angelo picks Kevin Holland despite the short notice, believing his range, accuracy, and experience will overcome Michał Oleksiejczuk's early power. He notes that Holland is the bigger fighter and has a massive advantage on the ground. He is a little worried about Oleksiejczuk's fast hands but is confident Holland will win.

Big Brady likes Kevin Holland a lot, stating he should not only win but win dominantly by finish (KO or submission). He believes Holland has advantages everywhere and that Oleksiejczuk is a round-one knockout bust if the fight goes to the second. He acknowledges Holland's poor fight IQ but thinks this is a big step down in competition. He expects a finish, possibly in the first round.

Cody picks Holland, calling Oleksiejczuk a 'glass cannon' who fades after the first round. He notes Oleksiejczuk's six first-round KOs but argues his wins are over low-level opposition. Cody believes Holland's durability, volume, and pace will be too much, and that Holland's frame at 185 lbs is fine. He suggests Holland is a better value at -280 than Makhachev at -700.

Daniel fades Holland due to his tendency to fool around and rely on physical gifts. He believes Oleksiejczuk's pressure and durability will break Holland, citing his fights with Krylov and Jacoby. He worries about Holland's neck attacks but sees value in the underdog.

Daniel Vreeland picks Kevin Holland despite being unhappy about it. He argues that Holland doesn't walk into shots on the feet and has survived fights with excellent strikers like Jack Della Maddalena and Michael Venom Page without being knocked out. Vreeland doesn't see Oleksiejczuk as the guy to finally tag Holland, nor does he think Oleksiejczuk can win a decision. He acknowledges Holland fights stupidly but sees no path for Oleksiejczuk.

Jeff Fox picks Oleksiejczuk because he has no faith in Kevin Holland fighting smart. He notes Holland has lost two straight and tends to eat shots. Fox points to Oleksiejczuk's knockout of Sam Alvey and his power, believing he can catch Holland. He dismisses Holland's durability against top strikers, saying Oleksiejczuk is the type to land a big shot.

The host expects Holland to use his length and footwork to keep Oleksiejczuk at range and eventually find a finish. Oleksiejczuk's pressure style may be nullified by Holland's striking and sneaky submission game. However, the host notes that Holland is tough to trust at -260, but if he fights smart, he should win inside the distance.

Paul picks Holland, noting his incredible chin and durability. He expects Oleksiejczuk to have early success but fade, and Holland to find his groove and finish via submission (club and sub). He mentions Holland's submission skills and Oleksiejczuk's poor cardio. Paul likes Holland by submission at +275.

Angelo leans Michael Page, citing his unorthodox karate style, speed, and power. He thinks Page's awkwardness will cause Kevin Holland to miss and then look to wrestle. He acknowledges this is Page's toughest test and that Holland is durable and composed. He has a small bet at even money but won't parlay Page.

Big Brady picks Michael Page to win by decision. He notes that Holland has poor fight IQ and likely won't grapple, so the fight will stay on the feet. He expects a close, competitive striking match that goes the distance, and he takes the dog in Page. He has low confidence and thinks the judges could get it wrong.

Cody thinks Holland has the durability and volume to overwhelm Page, and that Holland can exploit Page's lack of recent activity and questionable chin. He notes that Holland has a clear path to victory via wrestling, but acknowledges Holland might choose to strike instead.

Daniel is confident in MVP, citing his unorthodox striking, speed, and improved takedown defense. He dismisses the idea that Holland will wrestle, noting Holland averages less than one takedown per 15 minutes and is not a wrestler. Daniel believes MVP's distance and angles will frustrate Holland, and that Holland makes boneheaded mistakes. He bet MVP at plus 115 and expects a low-output striking match that could go to a split decision or a knockout of Holland.

Daniel Vreeland also picks Michael Page, though he initially hesitates. He notes that Page's recent results are actually improving and that his only losses are to Douglas Lima and Logan Storley, both via wrestling-heavy game plans. Vreeland argues that Page is still a better kickboxer than Holland and that Holland's path to victory is wrestling, but he doubts Holland can execute that game plan. He points out that even Douglas Lima couldn't consistently wrestle Page, so Holland may struggle. Vreeland concludes that Page's striking is enough to win.

Jeff Fox picks Michael Page as a dog, citing Kevin Holland's tendency to strike rather than grapple. He believes Holland will choose to strike with Page, which plays into Page's strengths. Fox notes that Page is past his prime but still has the striking prowess to beat Holland. He references Page's losses to Douglas Lima and Logan Storley, but argues that Page's striking is still elite and that Holland is not a strong wrestler. Fox is confident that Page's kickboxing will overwhelm Holland.

Page is a devastating striker with incredible speed, precision, and power. Holland will likely try to strike with him early, but his wrestling is not good enough to consistently take Page down. Page has good footwork and distance management to avoid takedowns and land his own shots. I expect Page to touch up Holland and eventually find a knockout in the second or third round. Holland's tendency to leave openings when his wrestling fails will be his downfall.

Paul believes Page is past his prime and hasn't fought in a year, while Holland is durable and has a significant experience advantage. He thinks Holland can use his wrestling to control Page, but also notes that Holland might choose to stand and trade, which could be risky.

Angelo leans Kevin Holland, acknowledging possible recency bias. He notes Holland's power, accuracy, and experience against top competition. He thinks Holland's size and striking could be the difference. He mentions the over 2.5 rounds as a potential bet and will monitor the line.

Big Brady picks Holland but with very low confidence, acknowledging Holland's poor fight IQ and tendency to strike instead of grapple. He notes Holland's advantages in size, reach, experience, and grappling, but expects Holland to strike and potentially get outpointed. He predicts Holland will hurt Della Maddalena on the feet and find a submission in the second round.

Cody also picks Kevin Holland, emphasizing the reach advantage and Holland's experience against top competition. He notes that Della Maddalena's ring IQ was questionable against Hafez, and that Holland's BJJ and durability make him a live dog. Cody believes Holland's power translates well at 170 and that Della Maddalena may struggle to get inside. He considers this a 'dog or pass' situation and likes the value.

Daniel Levi is confident in Jack Della Maddalena, having bet him at plus-100 earlier. He dismisses recency bias from Della's fight with Hafez, noting Hafez attempted 20 takedowns while Holland rarely wrestles. He believes Della's pressure and body work will overwhelm Holland, who struggles when pressured. Levi trusts Della's durability and sees this as a range battle where Della can cut off the cage and force Holland to fight going backward.

Holland has improved defensive grappling and a sniper-like striking game with range. Della Maddalena is a crisp boxer but struggled with wrestling in his last fight. Holland can use his jab and straight shots to keep distance, and may mix in grappling after learning from the Wonderboy fight. I think Holland has more paths to victory and will win a close decision, handing Della Maddalena his first UFC loss.

Paul picks Kevin Holland as an underdog, citing Holland's 8-inch reach advantage, better submission grappling, and improved wrestling at 170 lbs. He notes that Jack Della Maddalena's wins are against lower-level opponents and that he struggled with Basil Hafez's takedowns. Paul believes Holland's durability and power will be key, and that Della Maddalena may not find the same openings against a longer, more experienced fighter.

Angelo picks Kevin Holland, citing his accurate and powerful striking, and the fact that Chiesa has been away from fighting and focused on commentary. He acknowledges Holland's poor takedown defense but thinks Chiesa's takedowns are not elite and that Holland's length and BJJ will be a problem. He has a half-unit bet on Holland at -145.

Big Brady picks Kevin Holland to win by second-round submission (club and sub). He argues that Holland's takedown defense issues were at middleweight, and at welterweight he should be more comfortable. He questions Chiesa's activity and focus, and notes Chiesa makes mistakes on the mat, having been submitted four times. He expects Holland to land a big shot or snatch a submission.

Cody picks Chiesa by decision, noting Chiesa's style is kryptonite for Holland if he can get takedowns. He acknowledges Chiesa's layoff and injury concerns but believes at his best he can grind out a decision. He took the prop at +340, which he considered off-market. He is not fully convinced but sees value.

James sees value on Chiesa as a dog, citing his clear grappling advantage over Holland, who struggles with takedown defense. He notes Chiesa will likely shoot multiple takedowns and control the fight on the ground. However, he also acknowledges Holland's knockout power and submission threat, making him hesitant to bet heavily.

Chiesa is a talented grappler who can close the distance and get the fight to the ground. Holland still has grappling issues and Chiesa will control him from top position. Holland's takedown defense improvements will be tested but I think Chiesa grinds out a decision. I'm going with Chiesa by decision.

Angelo picks Kevin Holland but is avoiding bets because he wants to see how Holland looks after the Wonder Boy loss. He notes that Holland is a good grappler and accurate striker, but his takedown defense is poor. He thinks Holland should win, but Ponzinibbio is a good technical striker who could make it tough.

Big Brady picks Kevin Holland to win by knockout, citing Holland's durability and Ponzinibbio's recent decline. He notes that Ponzinibbio was hurt multiple times by Alex Morono and knocked out by Li Jingliang. He predicts a second-round KO, but admits he doesn't fully trust Holland due to his low fight IQ.

Cody also picks Ponzinibbio but is hesitant. He notes Holland's poor decision-making and the respect books give him, making the line too high. Cody points out Ponzinibbio's durability questions and age but sees value at +200. He mentions that Ponzinibbio is fighting in his backyard in Florida and that Holland's minus 235 price is disrespectful. Cody is not sure if he'll bet it but makes the pick for the show.

Connor picks Holland because Ponzinibbio has become a slow starter who gets hurt in every fight. Holland is fast, hits hard, and is fearless, so he will likely land a big shot early. Ponzinibbio may rally later, but his early deficits are too large to overcome. Connor notes that Holland's defense has deteriorated at welterweight, but his durability and confidence make him a tough out. He also mentions that Ponzinibbio's fragility is the real concern, as he gets hurt basically every fight now.

Jacob is confident in Kevin Holland, noting that the UFC gave him a winnable fight. He points out that Holland put Wonder Boy on skates in the first round, and if he lands those shots on Ponzinibbio, he will knock him out. He believes Holland is a better, longer, and more powerful striker, and will get the job done.

Holland has speed and power but is coming off a hand injury and fighting compromised. Ponzinibbio is slower post-layoff but still has veteran savvy and power. I think Holland's speed and power advantage will find Ponzinibbio's chin, but the hand injury is a major red flag. I prefer the fight doesn't go to decision prop over betting Holland straight.

Paul takes Ponzinibbio as a plus-money underdog, though hesitantly. He notes Ponzinibbio is always competitive against top welterweights, with close split decisions against Jeff Neal and Michel Pereira. Paul criticizes Kevin Holland's poor fight IQ, referencing the Stephen Thompson fight where Holland let him up. He believes Ponzinibbio, training in Florida with the crowd behind him, has a real chance. However, he acknowledges Ponzinibbio is 36 and may have declined.

The MMA Guru picks Kevin Holland to win by second-round TKO via straight right hand. He expects Ponzinibbio to have success early with leg kicks and jabs, but Holland will time a right hand as Ponzinibbio throws a kick, rocking him badly. He predicts Holland will finish with ground and pound in round two around the three-minute mark.

Angelo picks Stephen Thompson but is hesitant due to Thompson's age (39). He thinks Thompson is the better overall striker with incredible footwork, but notes the fight is basically a pick'em, so he won't bet the moneyline. He plans to wait for props, possibly betting Kevin Holland inside the distance or decision no action, because Holland is younger and dangerous. He expects Thompson to win but won't risk moneyline on a 39-year-old.

Big Brady picks Holland to win by knockout in the second or third round, citing Holland's youth (nine years younger), height, reach, power, durability, and Thompson's age (39) and layoff. He notes Thompson has been knocked down multiple times and Holland has never been knocked out. He also mentions Holland may mix in takedowns.

Cody agrees with Paul and provides extensive reasoning. He highlights that Holland's path to victory is to fight in a way he never does, while Thompson's karate style, output, and five-round experience favor him. He notes Thompson's takedown defense is a weakness but doubts Holland will exploit it. He also mentions the line moving towards Holland as a reason to take Thompson now.

Daniel Levi picks Kevin Holland to knock out Stephen Thompson. He notes Thompson's age (approaching 40), suspect chin, and history of being dropped (by Ellenberger, Woodley, Till). He believes Holland's straight right will find the opening and that Holland closes the show when he hurts opponents. He also mentions Thompson's submission defense is good but that Holland's reach and power are key.

The host leans towards Thompson, noting that Thompson is a superior striker and should have the advantage in a striking match. He mentions that Thompson's karate style and ability to hit without getting hit will be key. However, he is cautious about Thompson's age and the possibility of Holland using grappling. He would prefer a better price on Thompson (plus 150) before betting.

Paul sees this as a 50/50 fight but likes Thompson at plus money. He notes Thompson's five-round experience and thinks Holland won't shoot takedowns effectively. He believes Thompson can edge out a decision or even finish if Holland gets frustrated. He also mentions the under 4.5 rounds as a possibility.

Angelo picks Khamzat Chimaev, stating he will win whether he grapples or stands. He thinks Chimaev's wrestling will destroy Holland, and if he stands, he will touch Holland up and cause a TKO. He notes the odds are heavily in Chimaev's favor and expects a dominant performance.

Big Brady picks Khamzat Chimaev to win by second-round TKO, calling the fight unfair. He notes Chimaev can win anywhere: striking (he hits harder than Masvidal) or wrestling (Nate Diaz has poor takedown defense). He expects Chimaev to take Diaz down, hurt him with ground-and-pound, and possibly get a doctor stoppage. He dismisses Diaz's chances outside of a fluke.

Cody is leaning towards the underdog Daniel Rodriguez, noting that Rodriguez has high volume and is hittable, but that Holland has a reach advantage and better cardio. He mentions that Holland's over 50.5 significant strikes is a reasonable prop, but he is not ready to pull the trigger on a bet yet, waiting for weigh-ins. He picks Rodriguez for the show.

Daniel Levi picks Li Jingliang to defeat Tony Ferguson. He notes Ferguson's decline, having lost four straight and been knocked out badly by Chandler. Levi believes Li's power and Ferguson's deteriorating chin and wrestling defense will lead to a knockout. He acknowledges his poor betting history on Li but still sees Li as the clear winner due to Ferguson's washed-up state.

Jacob picks Chimaev but focuses on the round prop, predicting a first-round finish. He thinks Chimaev will try to prove a point by finishing the durable Nate Diaz early, using relentless ground and pound. He believes the ref will stop it due to carnage, and he is playing the under on rounds.

The host is extremely confident in Khamzat Chimaev, expecting him to take Nate Diaz down immediately and smash him on the ground. He dismisses Diaz's durability and jiu-jitsu, citing Chimaev's wrestling and size. He took under 1.5 rounds at +120 and suggests Chimaev round one at +165.

Paul picks Kevin Holland, citing his move to 170 as more natural and his improved wrestling. He believes Holland will be bigger and stronger, able to keep the fight standing, and that his cardio and output will carry him to a win in a competitive fight. He expects Holland to pull away down the stretch.

Angelo picks Kevin Holland, noting his striking accuracy and power. He acknowledges Holland's poor takedown defense but believes Tim Means doesn't have the raw athleticism or power to exploit it like others. He thinks the 3-to-1 odds are crazy but still picks Holland.

Big Brady picks Kevin Holland to win by second-round knockout. He notes Holland has a significant reach advantage and power, while Means is older with diminishing durability and chin. He believes Means' best chance is grappling, but Means rarely implements that game plan, and Holland's BJJ black belt and improved get-up game should keep the fight standing where Holland can knock him out.

Cody is high on Kevin Holland at 170, citing his improved takedown defense, BJJ black belt, and size advantage. He thinks Tim Means lacks the wrestling and cardio to exploit Holland, and Holland will chip away for a late finish or decision. He notes Holland's guard is active and Means' recent wins are over lower-level competition.

Daniel Levi picks Kevin Holland to win via an opportunistic finish, citing Holland's unorthodox style and ability to create chaos. He acknowledges Tim Means is well-rounded and may have early success, but believes Holland's length and creativity will prevail. However, he is not confident Holland covers the -300 spread, noting Holland's takedown defense issues and that Means can mix in takedowns. Levi sees it as a high-variance fight where Holland finds a way, but the price is too steep for a comfortable bet.

Paul agrees Holland should win but is wary of the -275 price. He notes Holland's size, reach, and guard are advantages, but the high favorite line gives him pause. He doesn't love the matchup for Means but isn't sure he'll bet Holland at that price.

Angelo picks Kevin Holland, noting his improved takedown defense and dedication to wrestling. He thinks Oliveira's leg kicks are dangerous but Holland's hands will be the difference. He expects Oliveira to stay on his feet, allowing Holland to settle into a rhythm and let his hands fly. He calls it potential fight of the night.

Big Brady picks Kevin Holland to win, likely by submission. He notes that Oliveira is on a three-fight skid and appears to be slowing down at 34, while Holland is younger and motivated. Brady believes Holland's BJJ black belt will be a threat if Oliveira attempts takedowns, as Oliveira has been submitted six times. He also thinks Holland's striking and reach advantage will be key, though he questions Holland's fight IQ. Brady is comfortable picking Holland but not laying -300 on him.

Cody likes Holland's striking advantage and reach, and believes his improved wrestling from training with Johny Hendricks will help him stay on the feet. He notes Oliveira is not a chain wrestler and has poor cardio, while Holland has good jiu-jitsu off his back. Cody has Holland in a parlay with Covington and also likes the submission prop at +800.

Daniel Levi picks Kevin Holland to win by submission. He notes that Holland has a massive size and reach advantage at 170, and that Oliveira's best days are behind him. He expects Oliveira to shoot a sloppy takedown and get caught in a choke. He also mentions that Holland has been working on his grappling and has submission wins. He parlayed Holland with Paddy Pimblett for two units.

Holland's striking is pristine at range, and the drop to 170 should help his takedown defense against smaller opponents. Oliveira has cardio issues and a tendency to give up. Holland will likely stay safe, avoid Oliveira's leg kicks and wrestling, and find a knockout in the later rounds. Oliveira's wild style could cause problems early, but Holland's conditioning and skill should prevail.

Paul dismisses the trap-line narrative, arguing Holland's wrestling has improved significantly since the Brunson and Vettori fights. He highlights Holland's training with Johny Hendricks and his performance against Kyle Daukaus, where he defended takedowns well. Paul notes Oliveira is not a high-volume wrestler and has a three-fight losing streak, while Holland is big and durable. He also mentions a standing guillotine as a potential finish.

Angelo picks Kyle Daukaus, believing his grappling will be enough to take down Kevin Holland, who has shown zero takedown defense. He notes that Daukaus is a very good grappler with solid jiu-jitsu, while Holland is a sniper on his feet with good BJJ but no wrestling. Angelo thinks Daukaus will stick to a game plan, get the fight to the ground, and control from there. He likes Daukaus at plus 120 moneyline and in DraftKings at $7,700. He hates the monkey knife fight line and will not touch it.

Big Brady picks Kevin Holland to win by knockout, seeing this as a good bounce-back spot. He notes Holland's losses came against elite wrestlers (Marvin Vettori, Derek Brunson) who are far better than Daukaus. Daukaus has poor striking defense (39%) and is very hittable, while Holland is a black belt himself and has shown good grappling against Gerald Meerschaert. Brady thinks Holland will stuff takedowns or get back up, and on the feet it's night and day. He predicts a knockout due to Daukaus's poor striking defense.

Cody picks Daukaus as a dog, citing Holland's poor takedown defense and mental fragility. He notes that Holland has shown no ability to keep fights standing and gets taken down easily, even by mediocre wrestlers. Daukaus has good grappling and should be able to take Holland down and control him on the ground. He also mentions that Holland's long frame makes it hard for him to scramble back to his feet.

Daniel Levi picks Kevin Holland, believing he is in a different class than Kyle Daukaus. He acknowledges Holland's wrestling issues exposed by top-five opponents but thinks Daukaus is not at that level to exploit them. Levi notes Daukaus is tough and durable but expects Holland's dynamic striking and reach to be too much. He suggests the line is a discount due to Holland's recent losses and that he would be a bigger favorite otherwise.

I'm staying away from this fight. Holland has huge grappling holes, but Daukaus isn't a great wrestler either. I think the over 2.5 rounds is interesting because both guys are durable and it might be a low-output fight. I don't have a strong pick either way.

Paul leans towards Holland but dislikes the -160 price. He acknowledges Holland's advantages on the feet but is concerned about his takedown defense and mental lapses. He notes that Daukaus is not a world-class wrestler but should be able to get the fight to the ground. He ultimately does not make a firm pick but seems to favor the dog.

Big Brady is confident in Vettori, citing his superior grappling and takedown defense. He notes that Holland has poor takedown defense (51%) and has been taken down easily by lesser wrestlers. Brady believes Vettori will take Holland down and likely secure a submission, as Holland has been submitted before. He also mentions that Holland's knockout power is overrated and Vettori has a great chin. Brady has already bet Vettori and may add him to a parlay.

Cody picks Vettori, citing Holland's poor takedown defense and tendency to quit when tired. He notes Vettori's durability, cardio, and ability to outwork Holland over five rounds. He mentions Holland's cardio collapses after two rounds and that Vettori can pressure and strike with him. He also parlayed Vettori.

Daniel Levi picks Marvin Vettori to win, noting that Vettori is a tough fight for anyone in the middleweight division and has shown improved boxing. He mentions that Vettori is very hittable but has an incredible chin, and that Kevin Holland's takedown defense weakness was already known. Levi thinks the line at -350 is too steep and considers it a dog-or-pass situation, but still favors Vettori. He also notes that Vettori doesn't always shoot for takedowns and likes to stand and bang.

The host is confident in Vettori, citing his mean streak, determination, and wrestling advantage. He thinks Holland's mentality of 'just having fun' is a liability against a grinder like Vettori. He expects Vettori to take Holland down and ground-and-pound him, possibly getting a third-round TKO. He calls Vettori a solid parlay piece.

Paul agrees with Vettori, emphasizing Holland's mental fragility and poor cardio. He notes Holland's takedown defense issues and that Vettori can outwork him. He mentions the price is close to fair and that Vettori is a promising young fighter.