UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards 2

Angelo picks Kamaru Usman to defeat Leon Edwards in their rematch. He notes that Usman is on track to become the greatest welterweight of all time, with technical striking and power, as seen in his knockout over Masvidal. Angelo points out that Usman already beat Edwards in 2015 with six takedowns and 11 minutes of control time, and believes Usman can win anywhere. He also mentions that Edwards struggled against Nate Diaz, getting outstruck and needing takedowns to secure the win. Angelo placed a moneyline bet on Usman at -335 and expects the line to move further.

Big Brady picks Kamaru Usman. He acknowledges that Leon Edwards is the better striker at range, but Usman has improved his striking with power and a great jab. Usman is a smart fighter who will use his wrestling and pressure, taking Edwards down and grinding on him for 25 minutes. Brady expects Usman to win by decision, though he notes a finish is possible given Usman's recent power. He respects Edwards but believes Usman's game plan and skills will prevail.

Cody picks Usman, emphasizing his stand-up improvement under Trevor Whitman, his wrestling, and the pressure he brings. He questions Edwards' resume and his ability to handle pressure, noting that Edwards has struggled in later rounds against lesser competition. He thinks Usman could knock him out but expects a decision.

Daniel Levi picks Kamaru Usman to win the rematch. He emphasizes Usman's superior pace and output, noting that Usman's output is almost double Edwards'. He believes Usman's top control will allow him to bank rounds by holding Edwards down. Levi acknowledges Edwards' paths to victory—slowing the pace and sniping Usman as he closes distance—but ultimately thinks this is a bad time to bet against Usman. He mentions that long-reigning champions sometimes lose when least expected, but he still favors Usman.

Usman's wrestling, cardio, and improving striking should overwhelm Edwards, who was nearly finished by Nate Diaz. The host expects Usman to grapple heavily and possibly finish late. He likes Usman round 4-5 or decision at -155 as a better bet than the moneyline. He includes Usman in a four-leg parlay.

Paul picks Usman to win, citing his cardio advantage from training in Denver, his pressure and wrestling, and the ability to slow down Edwards. He notes the -400 line is too steep but still sees Usman as the winner. He mentions he might look for underdog value elsewhere but officially picks Usman.

The Guru predicts Leon Edwards wins via 49-46 unanimous decision, with two judges scoring it 49-46 and one judge giving it 48-47 to Usman. He envisions Edwards landing effective leg kicks, body kicks, and jabs, cutting Usman with an elbow in round one. He sees Edwards rocking Usman with a head kick in round two and an uppercut-left hook combo in round three. However, he acknowledges Edwards slows down in rounds four and five, with Usman taking him down and landing punches, but believes Edwards clearly won rounds one, two, and three.

Angelo picks Paulo Costa over Luke Rockhold. He describes Costa as a massive middleweight with power, output, and surprising cardio, noting his relentless pace even when exhausted. Angelo acknowledges Rockhold's credentials as a former champion and talented wrestler, but believes the three-year layoff and age (38) are too much to overcome against a top-ranked opponent. He mentions that Costa has good takedown defense (80%) and that he already placed a moneyline bet on Costa at better odds earlier.

Big Brady is confident in Paulo Costa. He notes that Luke Rockhold hasn't fought in three years, hasn't won in nearly five years, and was knocked out in his last fight. Rockhold's chin is gone, and he looked slow and washed against Jan Błachowicz. Costa is younger, more active, hits hard, and has solid cardio. Brady expects Costa to knock Rockhold out in the first or second round. He mentions Costa's takedown defense is good, so Rockhold's wrestling won't work.

Cody picks Costa but expresses concerns about Costa's weight cut and his poor grappling off his back. He notes Rockhold's durability issues but acknowledges Rockhold's BJJ could be a threat if Costa gets taken down. Ultimately, he trusts Costa's power and finishing ability.

Daniel Levi picks Paulo Costa to knock out Luke Rockhold in the first round. He notes that Rockhold's chin has been suspect for a long time, citing knockouts by Vitor Belfort, Michael Bisping, Yoel Romero, and Jan Błachowicz. He believes Rockhold hasn't fought since 2019 and is coming back for a paycheck, which is a bad sign. Levi praises Costa's takedown defense (stuffing Yoel Romero's takedowns) and his power, and thinks Costa is catching Rockhold at the right time. He also mentions that Costa looked back to form in his last fight against Marvin Vettori.

Costa should knock out Rockhold, who has a weak chin and has been inactive for three years. However, the -350 price is too high for a finish-reliant fighter. The host prefers Costa by KO at -120 (now -170) but is passing on the moneyline. He warns that if Costa doesn't finish early, Rockhold could make it a tough fight.

Paul picks Costa to knock out Rockhold inside the first two rounds. He notes Rockhold's chin issues and long layoff, and likes the under 10 minutes on Prize Picks. He mentions Costa's wild card nature but thinks he's in great shape for this fight.

The Guru predicts Paulo Costa wins by first-round KO. He describes Costa rushing across the cage, landing a big kick, and then clipping Rockhold with a shot. He sees Costa slipping Rockhold's jab, landing a right hand and body shot, then a switch kick to the body. He envisions Costa blocking Rockhold's kicks and landing an inside leg kick, then a body kick, and finally a left hook that drops Rockhold about two and a half minutes into the first round.

Angelo picks Merab Dvalishvili over José Aldo, though he admits it's a tough pick and he'll be rooting for Aldo. He highlights Aldo's legendary takedown defense, noting that only Frankie Edgar has taken him down more than once in 27 Zuffa fights. However, Angelo believes that without Aldo's leg kicks to slow Merab's relentless wrestling, Aldo will be defending takedowns all night and likely lose a decision. He emphasizes Merab's insane 7.3 takedowns per 15 minutes and his chain-wrestling style.

Big Brady picks José Aldo as the underdog. He highlights Aldo's 90% takedown defense against elite competition, and believes Merab Dvalishvili's relentless wrestling will be neutralized. Aldo is the clearly better striker and has looked good recently. Brady expects Aldo to stuff takedowns, land more damage on the feet, and win a decision. He notes that Dvalishvili's wins are against lower-level competition and this is a big step up.

Cody picks Aldo as a live underdog, citing Aldo's excellent takedown defense (90% career), striking advantage, and ability to win rounds. He thinks Merab's run is overrated and that Aldo can exploit his aggressive style. He acknowledges it's a close fight but likes the plus money.

Daniel Levi picks Merab Dvalishvili to win a split decision, but he is hesitant because the fight is three rounds instead of five. He notes that Aldo has legendary takedown defense (90% over a long sample size) and will likely win the first round. However, he worries about Aldo's cardio in the elevation of Salt Lake City, as Aldo did not train at altitude. Levi believes Merab's relentless wrestling and pace will wear Aldo down in the second and third rounds, leading to a close decision. He acknowledges that Aldo could win a split decision and that there is value on Aldo as a dog.

Aldo's superior striking, get-up game, and takedown defense should allow him to land more damage than Dvalishvili, who struggles to hold opponents down. The host expects Aldo to win by knockout, possibly similar to the Jack Cartwright fight. He advises only 1 unit due to the risk of a changing of the guard.

Paul picks Merab but is not confident. He thinks Merab's relentless takedown attempts could be key, but notes his poor top control. He mentions he might play Merab over 2.5 takedowns on Prize Picks and prefers live betting.

The Guru predicts José Aldo wins by TKO in the second round. He describes Aldo popping the jab, landing leg kicks, and checking Merab's leg kicks. He sees Aldo stuffing takedowns, landing knees to the body, and eventually hurting Merab with body shots, leading to a TKO. He acknowledges the possibility that Aldo could get mashed up like he did against Yan in the fifth round, but believes his prediction will come true.

Angelo picks Wu Yanan over Lucie Pudilová. He notes that Pudilová is a UFC vet on a second stint but had a four-fight losing skid before being cut. He believes Wu is genuinely better everywhere, with better striking and grappling, and that her losses were competitive against higher-level competition. However, he expresses caution about betting low-level women's MMA and says he might only bet if the odds move to plus money around +200.

Big Brady picks the underdog Wu Yanan. He sees the fight as extremely close on the feet, slightly favoring Lucie Pudilová, but notes that Wu Yanan has shown takedown ability in recent fights. He believes Wu Yanan can mix in a takedown to seal a round and win a close decision. He mentions that Pudilová has poor takedown defense and no answer when taken down. Brady is not confident but sees a sneaky path for Wu Yanan.

Cody also picks Wu Yanan, agreeing with Paul that grappling will be key. He notes Pudilova's limited takedown defense and thinks Wu Yanan can take her down. He is not confident and says he won't bet it heavily.

Pudilová is the better striker with more power, but the fight is a toss-up. The host would only bet if Pudilová becomes plus money, and would then consider a small play on her by decision. He is not confident enough to bet at current odds.

Paul picks Wu Yanan, citing her grappling edge and the fact that Pudilova has poor takedown defense. He notes it's a low-level women's MMA fight and expects grappling to be key. He admits he's not confident and calls it a 'dogger pass'.

The Guru initially forgot his pick and had to check, eventually settling on Lucie Pudilová by decision. He thinks she will minorly outstrike Yanan in every round and mix in takedowns at the end of rounds to secure them. He calls her very good and underrated, and believes her experience against decent competition will allow her to win 27-30 via unanimous decision.

Angelo refuses to make a moneyline pick due to the absurd odds (Tyson Pedro at -800). He calls the odds 'insane' and 'stupid,' noting that Pedro is 2-3 in his last five with two stoppage losses, while Hunsucker lost to heavy hitters Justin Tafa and Tai Tuivasa. He says Tyson probably wins but advises against betting the moneyline. Instead, he recommends betting 'does not go the distance' and the under on rounds, as he expects a knockout.

Big Brady is confident in Tyson Pedro. He notes that Harry Hunsucker has poor skills and was easily taken down and finished by Jared Vanderaa. Pedro is a big favorite and has the advantage everywhere, especially on the ground with good ground and pound and submissions. Brady expects Pedro to take Hunsucker down and finish him in the first round by ground and pound. He is a fan of Hunsucker but acknowledges the skill gap.

Cody picks Pedro, emphasizing Hunsucker's poor competition and lack of durability. He thinks Pedro can win by leg kicks or takedowns, but warns about the banana peel pricing. He mentions a submission prop as a value play.

Daniel Levi picks Tyson Pedro to finish Harry Hunsucker in the first round. He jokes about Hunsucker's name and says Pedro will run the train on him. Levi is not sold on Pedro long-term but believes Hunsucker is not the guy to expose him. He expects a quick finish and notes that the under 1.5 rounds line is heavily juiced.

Pedro should win easily as Hunsucker is one of the worst fighters in the UFC, but the -750 price is terrible value. The host prefers betting the under 1.5 rounds or taking a small stab on Hunsucker by round 1 KO at +2200. He includes the under 1.5 in a four-leg parlay.

Paul picks Pedro, calling Hunsucker a 'cupcake matchup'. He notes Pedro's path to victory via leg kicks or takedowns, but acknowledges the -800 line offers no value. He mentions he put $40 on Hunsucker by KO at 25-1 as a small flier.

The Guru predicts Tyson Pedro wins by kimura submission in round two. He describes Pedro throwing half kicks at range, dodging Hunsucker's wild onslaughts, and landing jabs and teeps. He sees Pedro taking Hunsucker down in round two, taking side control, and locking in the kimura. He notes that the kimura is Pedro's favorite submission.

Angelo picks Alexandr Romanov over Marcin Tybura. He describes Romanov as a massive, athletic wrestler with a Brock Lesnar style, while Tybura is a durable grinder with okay striking and trips. Angelo acknowledges concerns: Romanov hasn't fought top-20 opponents and was taken down four times by Juan Espino. However, he believes Romanov is too big, fast, and athletic for Tybura, and that Tybura won't get close enough to land his trips. He has moneyline bets on Romanov.

Big Brady picks Alexandr Romanov but is hesitant. He notes that Romanov struggled with cardio against Juan Espino, but looked in incredible shape against Chase Sherman. Tybura is a tough grappler with good takedown defense and cardio. Brady expects Romanov to get takedowns and win the first two rounds, but concerns about the third round remain. He predicts Romanov wins by decision, though Tybura could have success late if Romanov slows down.

Cody picks Romanov, noting his wrestling and athleticism. He mentions Romanov's training at Tiger Muay Thai and his improved cardio. He thinks Tybura is trending downward and Romanov should win, but he won't put him at the top of his parlay due to heavyweight volatility.

Daniel Levi picks Alexandr Romanov to win, though he acknowledges there is no value on the line at -360. He believes Romanov is a much better athlete and more explosive than Tybura, and that Romanov will get takedowns and grind out a win. He notes that Romanov looked significantly leaner after the Juan Espino fight and seems to be taking his career more seriously. Levi respects Tybura's experience and methodical striking but thinks Romanov's wrestling will be the difference.

Romanov should win via grappling and top pressure, likely finishing within two rounds. However, Tybura is live as a dog with good BJJ and takedown defense. The host compares this to the David Onama fight last week, warning against laying heavy chalk on finish-reliant fighters. He is not betting this fight due to the risk.

Paul picks Romanov, citing his wrestling advantage and improved striking. He notes Romanov's cardio concerns but thinks he can get the job done. He likes Romanov over 2.5 takedowns on Prize Picks.

The Guru predicts Alexandr Romanov wins by first-round TKO. He describes Romanov slamming lead leg kicks and inside leg kicks, then backing Tybura against the cage and landing a clean right overhand that rocks him. He sees Romanov finishing with ground and pound after a takedown.

Angelo picks Jared Gordon over Leonardo Santos. He notes that Santos is a phenomenal BJJ practitioner with deceptive power, but at 41 and on a two-fight losing streak, his cardio and takedown accuracy (29%) are concerns. Gordon was taken down seven times by Grant Dawson, but Angelo believes Gordon's pressure and striking volume will be the difference, similar to his win over Joe Solecki. He thinks Gordon can stay tough and grind out a decision.

Big Brady picks Jared Gordon but is hesitant. He acknowledges that Leonardo Santos is more skilled everywhere and has a seven-inch reach advantage, but Santos is 42 years old with terrible cardio, gassing out after five minutes. Gordon has poor durability but excellent cardio. Brady expects Gordon to survive the first round and take over in the second and third, winning a decision. He mentions the first round will be a sweat and suggests the Santos first-round prop could be in play.

Cody picks Gordon, emphasizing Gordon's cardio and pressure. He notes Santos' history of gassing out and thinks Gordon can grind him down. He expects Gordon to win by decision but acknowledges the risk of Santos' early power.

Daniel Levi leans toward Leonardo Santos as a dog, but he is not confident. He notes that Santos is better everywhere technically, but at 42 years old he has only one round of gas left. Levi thinks Santos can hurt Gordon early, but if he doesn't finish, Gordon's pace will take over. He calls it a dog-or-pass situation and says if he were to bet, he would take Santos.

Gordon should outwork Santos and win a decision, but the -265 price is too steep for the host's liking. Santos has knockout power and could catch Gordon, especially early. The host prefers Gordon by decision at +125 as a prop, and notes Santos by KO at +700 is live. He is not betting Gordon at this price.

Paul picks Santos as a dog, citing his power and submission threat. He took a small sprinkle on Santos by submission at +900. He thinks Santos could catch Gordon early, but acknowledges Gordon's pressure and cardio could be factors.

The Guru predicts Jared Gordon wins by third-round submission via arm triangle. He describes Gordon pushing Santos against the cage, landing knees and punches, and threatening submissions. He sees Santos slowing down due to age (42), and Gordon taking mount and locking in the arm triangle on a gassed Santos.

Angelo picks Sean Woodson over Luis Saldaña. He praises Woodson's boxing and range management, noting that he actually knows how to use his reach effectively. He acknowledges Saldaña is a versatile striker with good movement, but doubts his 20% takedown accuracy will be enough to get the fight to the ground. Without the takedown threat, Angelo sees this as a kickboxing match where Woodson is the superior striker. He mentions Woodson's 81% takedown defense and recent power showcase.

Big Brady is confident in Sean Woodson. He notes that Luis Saldaña has a horrendous gas tank, gassing out in the second round in multiple fights, and puts his hands on his hips or knees when tired. Woodson has a huge reach advantage (79 vs 73 inches) and excellent cardio. Brady expects Woodson to mix in body shots and finish Saldaña in the second or third round by knockout. He believes Saldaña's cardio issues will be his downfall.

Cody picks Woodson, emphasizing his reach and boxing. He thinks Woodson's jab and range control will be key, and that Saldaña's kicks will be countered. He notes Woodson's output and thinks Saldaña will drown under the pace.

Daniel Levi picks Sean Woodson to win, citing Woodson's massive physical advantages (6'2" with 78-inch reach at featherweight). He notes that Luis Saldaña has cardio issues even at sea level, and in the elevation of Salt Lake City, Saldaña will fade in the second and third rounds. Levi believes Woodson will pull away down the stretch and has been paying his dues against good competition.

Woodson's long-range boxing and takedown defense should be too much for Saldaña, who has poor cardio and is not a strong grappler. Woodson will work the body and likely finish late or win a decision. The host likes Woodson inside the distance at +175 or decision at +130.

Paul picks Woodson, citing his reach advantage and boxing. He thinks Woodson can counter Saldaña's kicks and dictate range. He notes Woodson's output and thinks Saldaña's cardio will be an issue. He likes Woodson as a parlay piece.

The Guru predicts Sean Woodson wins by early second-round TKO. He describes Woodson beating Saldaña with a jab and leg kicks, threatening submissions, and landing body shots and knees. He sees Woodson finishing Saldaña with body shots against the cage in round two.

Angelo picks Amir Albazi over Francisco Figueiredo. He describes Albazi as a legit prospect with solid grappling, striking, and high pace, who is light on his toes and can quickly snatch a leg for takedowns. He notes that Figueiredo is about 75% of his brother's ability, but is better at wrestling and grappling. Angelo believes Albazi has the edge in striking, wrestling, and grappling, and expects a one-sided decision. The only concern is Albazi's year-and-a-half layoff, which prevents Angelo from making him a parlay piece.

Big Brady is confident in Amir Albazi. He criticizes Francisco Figueiredo's low volume (1.92 significant strikes per minute), lack of power, and poor cardio, noting he lost rounds to Malcolm Gordon and Jerome Rivera. Albazi is well-rounded, has better volume, power, cardio, and grappling. Brady expects Albazi to win by decision, though he mentions a late finish is possible. He sees Albazi having the advantage everywhere.

Cody picks Albazi, emphasizing his fluid striking and grappling. He notes Figueiredo's cardio problems and lack of power. He thinks Albazi is on a different level and should win comfortably.

Daniel Levi leans toward Amir Albazi but is not confident enough to bet at -500. He thinks Albazi is a fantastic prospect but notes that he has been out for over a year and that Francisco Figueiredo is not as bad as the line suggests. Levi points out that Figueiredo made a bad decision in the Malcolm Gordon fight (dropping back for a leg lock from full mount) but has talent. He expects the fight to be competitive early, with Albazi pulling away later, but says it's a dog-or-pass situation.

Albazi is a promising flyweight prospect with strong wrestling and improving hands. He should dominate Figueiredo, who is low-level and only wins by early knockout. Albazi's grappling and durability will be too much; he can win by decision or finish. The host includes Albazi in a four-leg parlay.

Paul picks Albazi, citing his superior striking and grappling. He notes Figueiredo's cardio issues and lack of power. He thinks Albazi is the better fighter everywhere and should win, but the -500 line offers little value.

The Guru predicts Amir Albazi wins by second-round submission via rear-naked choke. He describes Albazi landing jabs and shots over the top, while Figueiredo is defensively irresponsible. He sees Albazi taking Figueiredo down, taking the back, and locking in a standing rear-naked choke in round two.

Angelo picks Aoriqileng (Corey Lang) over Jay Perrin. He describes Lang as a well-rounded fighter with incredible pressure and pace, solid footwork, and a sturdy chin. He notes that Perrin is primarily a wrestler who almost never gets his first takedown and spends time against the cage. Angelo believes Lang's superior striking and ability to work off the cage will earn him his second UFC win. He thinks the -190 line is about right and might try to beat the curve if it moves further.

Big Brady is siding with the underdog Jay Perrin. He notes that Aoriqileng (Richie Long) is a powerful striker but is hittable and has cardio concerns. Perrin fights with a process, relentlessly pursuing takedowns and has excellent cardio. Brady believes Perrin will take Aoriqileng down, wear on him, and win minutes on the mat across three rounds, likely by decision. He trusts Perrin's game plan and sees a clear path to victory.

Cody picks Perrin, citing his wrestling advantage and physicality. He notes Aoriqileng has been taken down before and thinks Perrin can replicate that. He hopes the training with top wrestlers pays off.

Daniel Levi leans toward Aoriqileng (the Mongolian Murderer) but is not confident. He notes that Aoriqileng has one-hitter-quitter power and has faced better competition, but the blueprint to beat him is established (out-volume or out-grapple). Levi is concerned about Aoriqileng's cardio and the effects of travel and elevation if he trained overseas. He thinks if Aoriqileng lands big shots, he wins, but if not, Jay Perrin's solid all-around game could make it competitive.

Jay Perrin is the dog of the night play with 2 units at +132. He expects Perrin to use a grapple-heavy approach similar to Cody Durden's blueprint against Aoriqileng, landing takedowns and controlling the fight on the ground. Perrin has solid durability and has been training at Syndicate MMA, which should help his development. Aoriqileng is the better striker but can be beaten by wrestlers, as seen in the Durden fight.

Paul picks Perrin, citing his wrestling advantage and training with Merab and Aljamain Sterling. He thinks Perrin can take down Aoriqileng and grind out a win. He notes the line has moved and he may have missed the best value.

The Guru predicts Aoriqileng wins by first-round KO. He describes both fighters exchanging shots, with Perrin taking a big shot and shooting a takedown that Aoriqileng stuffs. He sees Aoriqileng landing elbows, body shots, and a big overhand that rocks Perrin, finishing him against the cage via TKO.

Angelo picks Daniel Lacerda (da Silva) over Victor Altamirano. He calls it a razor-thin fight that should be a pick'em. He notes that both are solid strikers with okay wrestling and good BJJ, but believes Lacerda is the better striker and more dangerous fighter. He acknowledges Altamirano's takedown defense isn't great but he sweeps well. Angelo is concerned about Lacerda's poor wrestling but thinks he can still get it done. He admits he doesn't love the pick but is going with the underdog due to Lacerda's danger.

Big Brady sees this as a tricky fight. He notes that Daniel Lacerda (da Silva) is dangerous early with a 100% finish rate but fades badly if the fight extends, as seen in his loss to Jeff Molina. Victor Altamirano has terrible takedown defense but is durable and has cardio. Brady expects Lacerda to look good early but fade, with Altamirano taking over and finishing by submission in the second or third round. He is hesitant because Lacerda could win the first round if he lands early.

Cody picks Altamirano, emphasizing his Mexican toughness and durability. He notes Lacerda's cardio issues and thinks Altamirano can break him down. He likes the under 12.5 minutes as it covers both fighters' finishing potential.

Daniel Levi picks Victor Altamirano to win a decision. He notes that Daniel Lacerda is hell on wheels early but fades, and in the elevation, Lacerda will gas even faster. Levi believes Altamirano's Mexican heart and long strikes will take over in the second and third rounds. He acknowledges that Lacerda could get an early finish, but if he doesn't, Altamirano wins.

Victor Altamirano is the lock of the night play with 4 units at -168. He expects Altamirano to survive early trouble from Lacerda's takedowns and jiu-jitsu, then take over as Lacerda's cardio fades after the first few minutes. Altamirano's striking advantage and ability to create scrambles should lead to a finish in the second or third round. He also took 2 units on under 2.5 rounds at -165 as a hedge.

Paul picks Altamirano, citing his durability and cardio advantage. He notes Lacerda's explosive style but poor cardio. He likes the under 12.5 minutes on Prize Picks and thinks Altamirano can weather the early storm and take over.

The Guru predicts Victor Altamirano wins via 29-28 unanimous decision. He describes a sloppy, chaotic fight where Lacerda gives Altamirano problems early with takedowns and punches, but Altamirano lands leg kicks and body kicks. He sees Altamirano wearing Lacerda down in the second and third rounds, beating him up badly in the third.