Jay Perrin

Angelo is confident Rosas will dominate via wrestling and control, predicting a wet blanket decision. He has a 2-unit moneyline bet on Rosas at -255. However, he expresses concern that Rosas is too young (18) for the UFC, comparing him to Aaron Pico who was pushed too fast. He believes Rosas will outpace Perrin and wrestle him relentlessly.

Big Brady picks the underdog Jay Perrin, citing Perrin's excellent takedown defense, cardio, and toughness. He notes Rosas Jr. has faced no adversity and has poor striking, while Perrin trains with Merab Dvalishvili and has good grappling. He expects Perrin to survive early takedowns and take over in later rounds, winning by decision or late finish.

Cody picks Rosas Jr., citing his submission grappling and cardio. He thinks the UFC is building him up and that Perrin is a favorable matchup. He notes Rosas' relentless pressure and chain wrestling. He expects a submission or inside the distance win, and suggests taking Rosas inside the distance at plus 140.

Daniel Levi picks Raul Rosas Jr., believing the UFC matched him against a weak opponent in Jay Perrin. He describes Perrin as average everywhere with a poor attitude, and notes that the UFC offered the fight to other fighters first. Levi likes Rosas's length, awkwardness, grappling ability (back takes, scrambles), and confidence. He expects Rosas to win, possibly by submission, but is not crazy about the -240 price. He suggests waiting for a better line around -200.

Lock is confident in Rosas Jr. from a PredictionStrike perspective, noting that if he fulfills his potential, the current price of $1.26 will look like a steal. He acknowledges the possibility of struggles like other young fighters, but believes Rosas has the best base for MMA with his grappling and jiu-jitsu, and a safe style that minimizes damage. He thinks this is likely the best price you'll ever get on him, and recommends buying in for the long term.

Paul does not make a clear pick, noting Rosas is very young (17) and that Perrin has wrestling credentials. He thinks Perrin could give Rosas trouble and that the fight is not a high priority for betting. He acknowledges Rosas' potential but is not confident either way.

Angelo picks Aoriqileng (Corey Lang) over Jay Perrin. He describes Lang as a well-rounded fighter with incredible pressure and pace, solid footwork, and a sturdy chin. He notes that Perrin is primarily a wrestler who almost never gets his first takedown and spends time against the cage. Angelo believes Lang's superior striking and ability to work off the cage will earn him his second UFC win. He thinks the -190 line is about right and might try to beat the curve if it moves further.

Big Brady is siding with the underdog Jay Perrin. He notes that Aoriqileng (Richie Long) is a powerful striker but is hittable and has cardio concerns. Perrin fights with a process, relentlessly pursuing takedowns and has excellent cardio. Brady believes Perrin will take Aoriqileng down, wear on him, and win minutes on the mat across three rounds, likely by decision. He trusts Perrin's game plan and sees a clear path to victory.

Cody picks Perrin, citing his wrestling advantage and physicality. He notes Aoriqileng has been taken down before and thinks Perrin can replicate that. He hopes the training with top wrestlers pays off.

Daniel Levi leans toward Aoriqileng (the Mongolian Murderer) but is not confident. He notes that Aoriqileng has one-hitter-quitter power and has faced better competition, but the blueprint to beat him is established (out-volume or out-grapple). Levi is concerned about Aoriqileng's cardio and the effects of travel and elevation if he trained overseas. He thinks if Aoriqileng lands big shots, he wins, but if not, Jay Perrin's solid all-around game could make it competitive.

Jay Perrin is the dog of the night play with 2 units at +132. He expects Perrin to use a grapple-heavy approach similar to Cody Durden's blueprint against Aoriqileng, landing takedowns and controlling the fight on the ground. Perrin has solid durability and has been training at Syndicate MMA, which should help his development. Aoriqileng is the better striker but can be beaten by wrestlers, as seen in the Durden fight.

Paul picks Perrin, citing his wrestling advantage and training with Merab and Aljamain Sterling. He thinks Perrin can take down Aoriqileng and grind out a win. He notes the line has moved and he may have missed the best value.

Angelo picks Khalid Taha (though the matchup is Mario Bautista vs Jay Perrin, the transcript discusses Bautista vs Taha; likely a transcription error). He notes Taha's power and speed match up well against Bautista's volume, and Taha's cardio holds up. He was hoping for underdog odds but the line is essentially even.

Big Brady picks Mario Bautista confidently, noting Perrin is a grinder on short notice. He believes Bautista's takedown defense and striking are superior, and predicts a third round knockout, giving Perrin his first KO loss.

Cody picks Bautista, believing he will bounce back from his loss to Trevin Jones. He notes that Bautista is talented with a diverse skill set, and that Perrin lacks knockout power and is primarily a grappler. Cody thinks Bautista can win on the feet or on the ground, and that Perrin's only chance is a submission, which is unlikely. He expects Bautista to be around a -250 favorite.

Levi picks Bautista but is uncomfortable laying -350. He notes that Perrin is a solid but unspectacular fighter, and Bautista has good volume. However, he questions how Bautista will bounce back from his first knockout loss. Levi expects Bautista to win a decision.

Bautista is the much slicker striker and should keep the fight standing against Perrin, who relies on grinding takedowns. Bautista has 70%+ takedown defense and was preparing for a wrestler. Perrin is short notice but in shape; however, Bautista's striking advantage should lead to a finish. Bautista inside distance at +170 is the play.