vs
+300 -320
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards 2 · Aug 20, 2022 · Heavyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards 2 Next Fight
Age 40
Height 6' 3"
Reach 78.0"
Weight 249 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age N/A
Height N/A
Reach N/A
Weight N/A
Stance N/A
Career Averages - Marcin Tybura
3.56 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
3.26 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
1.3 TD Avg
33.0% TD Acc.
70.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Alexandr Romanov

No career stats available

Marcin Tybura
Moneyline
BetMGM +300
KO/TKO
FanDuel +950
Submission
BetRivers +2800
Decision
BetRivers +575
Alexandr Romanov
Moneyline
DraftKings -320
KO/TKO
BetRivers +163
Submission
FanDuel +400
Decision
BetRivers +285
Marcin Tybura - Fight History
LOSS vs Tyrell Fortune
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · Mar 28, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marcin Tybura 0 47 of 110 42% 85 of 153 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:41
Tyrell Fortune 0 30 of 59 50% 49 of 81 3 of 5 60% 0 0 5:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marcin Tybura 0 8 of 22 36% 13 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tyrell Fortune 0 9 of 15 60% 18 of 26 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:03
2 Marcin Tybura 0 19 of 50 38% 21 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tyrell Fortune 0 13 of 26 50% 13 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Marcin Tybura 0 20 of 38 52% 51 of 73 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:41
Tyrell Fortune 0 8 of 18 44% 18 of 29 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marcin Tybura 47 of 110 42% 22 of 77 20 of 27 5 of 6 36 of 96 11 of 14 0 of 0
Tyrell Fortune 30 of 59 50% 24 of 53 6 of 6 0 of 0 18 of 43 6 of 6 6 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marcin Tybura 8 of 22 36% 5 of 16 2 of 4 1 of 2 4 of 17 4 of 5 0 of 0
Tyrell Fortune 9 of 15 60% 8 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 4 2 of 2 5 of 9
2 Marcin Tybura 19 of 50 38% 8 of 35 7 of 11 4 of 4 17 of 47 2 of 3 0 of 0
Tyrell Fortune 13 of 26 50% 11 of 24 2 of 2 0 of 0 12 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Marcin Tybura 20 of 38 52% 9 of 26 11 of 12 0 of 0 15 of 32 5 of 6 0 of 0
Tyrell Fortune 8 of 18 44% 5 of 15 3 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 14 3 of 3 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Tyrell Fortune

Angelo picks Tyrell Fortune because he believes Fortune's power and striking will be too much for the aging Marcin Tybura. He notes that if Tybura can get takedowns, he could grind out a win, but he doubts Tybura can avoid Fortune's power. Angelo suggests betting on Fortune inside the distance if hesitant on the moneyline, as Tybura is unlikely to finish Fortune.

Win inside distance decision no action
"Tyrell's going to be the pick. If you're too scared to bet him, then grab him at win inside the distance decision no action."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Mar 23, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Big Brady leans toward Marcin Tybura to win by second-round submission. He acknowledges it's a greasy heavyweight fight and sees paths for both. He favors Tybura's experience and submission grappling advantage on the ground. He notes Tybura is 40 with a questionable chin, but believes if Tybura gets on top, the fight ends quickly. He also mentions Fortune's power and early finishes but thinks Tybura's path is more reliable.

Tybura by submission round 2
"I'm leaning Tybura here. ... I'll take him to win this fight by second round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Cody picks Tybura, expecting him to survive Fortune's early explosiveness and take over as Fortune fades. He suggests live betting Tybura after the first round.

"It's going to be the Polish powerhouse, Marcin Tybura."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Connor also picks Tybura, agreeing that Fortune's grappling is bad and that Tybura's backtake game will be decisive. He notes that Fortune is not interested in fighting and that Tybura's decline is a concern but Fortune is not the type to exploit it.

"I think for the grappling alone... I pick Tabora."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Tyrell Fortune

Daniel thinks Fortune is catching Tybura at the right time, as Tybura is 40 and near retirement. He believes Fortune's motivation and well-rounded skills will earn him a UFC debut win.

"I think this is right place, right time for Tyrell Fortune to at least get one UFC win under his belt against an established, serious name in Marcin Tybura."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Tyrell Fortune

The host believes Fortune's wrestling and grappling will be the difference, allowing him to control the fight on the ground. He notes Tybura's experience but thinks Fortune's strength and top pressure will grind out a decision. He expresses some concern about Fortune's submission defense after a heel hook loss but expects him to have shored that up.

decision
"I think we'll see Fortune having shored up those submission defense issues and I think that would lead to him grinding this fight out uh and having a successful UFC debut."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Paul leans Tybura as a dog, citing Fortune's questionable cardio and heart. He's hesitant but sees value on Tybura at plus money.

"I'm taking the dog in Tybura as well."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Marcin Tybura

The MMA Guru picks Marcin Tybura, despite acknowledging Tyrell Fortune's wrestling background. He believes Tybura's experience and durability will carry him to a decision win. He notes that Fortune has not faced high-level competition recently and that Tybura can grind out a win. He predicts a 29-28 decision.

decision
"I'm picking Martin Tyura to win this fight."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Zane picks Tybura due to his grappling advantage, noting that Tybura is one of the few heavyweights with a backtake game, while Fortune has poor grappling instincts and gives up his back. He also mentions Fortune's lack of willingness to finish.

"I think for the grappling alone... I pick Tabora."
LOSS vs Ante Delija
KO R1 2:03 · UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · Sep 06, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marcin Tybura 0 4 of 9 44% 8 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:18
Ante Delija 1 13 of 28 46% 15 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marcin Tybura 0 4 of 9 44% 8 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:18
Ante Delija 1 13 of 28 46% 15 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marcin Tybura 4 of 9 44% 1 of 5 3 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 7 2 of 2 0 of 0
Ante Delija 13 of 28 46% 13 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0 9 of 23 0 of 0 4 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marcin Tybura 4 of 9 44% 1 of 5 3 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 7 2 of 2 0 of 0
Ante Delija 13 of 28 46% 13 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0 9 of 23 0 of 0 4 of 5
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Aug 31, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Angelo reluctantly picks Marcin Tybura, citing his toughness, experience, and ability to grind out wins. He notes that the line has flipped with Delija now the favorite. He acknowledges Delija's power and takedowns but points out his age (35) and that he's from another organization, which the community often dismisses. He believes Tybura's durability and cagemanship will be key.

"I'm going to pick Marcen Tyora. I'm going to stick with that pick, but it's a reluctant pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Ante Delija

Big Brady picks Ante Delija, citing his speed and power on the feet. He notes Tybura's chin has been cracked and he is almost 40. He sees Delia winning by knockout if he can stuff takedowns, but acknowledges Tybura's path via grappling. He predicts a knockout win.

Delija by knockout
"I'll say Delia, I'll say Dia by knockout, but I'm looking forward to it."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Ante Delija

The host recalls their first meeting where Tybura won after Delija broke his leg. He thinks Delija can be successful in the UFC and will land more damaging shots, be more aggressive, mix in clinch and takedowns, eventually find a dominant position and get Tybura out of there via TKO.

TKO
"I think that will eventually lead to Dia finding a dominant position to rain down big shots and get Tyora out of there."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Ante Delija

The Guru picks Ante Delija, arguing that Tybura's 'fraud check' wins come against less experienced opponents, while Delija is a seasoned heavyweight with no clear holes. He notes Delija's training with Tom Aspinall and believes his athleticism and footwork will be too much. He predicts a TKO finish in round two or three, possibly from leg kicks and in-close shots.

TKO finish
"I'm going to go with Ante Deia. I think he's a step above the guys that do get fraud checked by Tyura."
WIN vs Mick Parkin
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · Mar 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marcin Tybura 0 61 of 155 39% 64 of 158 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:01
Mick Parkin 0 60 of 145 41% 102 of 192 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:43
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marcin Tybura 0 21 of 56 37% 21 of 56 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:19
Mick Parkin 0 23 of 45 51% 24 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
2 Marcin Tybura 0 7 of 20 35% 10 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Mick Parkin 0 15 of 38 39% 41 of 69 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:24
3 Marcin Tybura 0 33 of 79 41% 33 of 79 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:25
Mick Parkin 0 22 of 62 35% 37 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marcin Tybura 61 of 155 39% 28 of 110 29 of 40 4 of 5 60 of 151 1 of 4 0 of 0
Mick Parkin 60 of 145 41% 47 of 130 1 of 2 12 of 13 49 of 118 2 of 2 9 of 25
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marcin Tybura 21 of 56 37% 4 of 34 15 of 20 2 of 2 21 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mick Parkin 23 of 45 51% 13 of 34 1 of 1 9 of 10 22 of 44 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Marcin Tybura 7 of 20 35% 4 of 15 3 of 5 0 of 0 7 of 19 0 of 1 0 of 0
Mick Parkin 15 of 38 39% 15 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 12 1 of 1 9 of 25
3 Marcin Tybura 33 of 79 41% 20 of 61 11 of 15 2 of 3 32 of 76 1 of 3 0 of 0
Mick Parkin 22 of 62 35% 19 of 58 0 of 1 3 of 3 22 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

Angelo picks Mick Parkin, going against his bias for wrestlers. He notes Tybura's chin is fading after being wobbled in recent fights, but questions whether Parkin has one-punch knockout power. He thinks if Tybura can't get takedowns, he's in trouble, and Parkin's pace and control could be the difference. He admits it's a gut pick.

"I'm going to go with my gut... and I'm picking Mick Parkin"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Brady is taking the underdog Tybura, questioning what a Mick Parkin win looks like. He notes Parkin's wins are against low-level competition and that he was outlanded by Kyle Machado. Brady thinks Tybura can win a close fight on the feet or dominate on top, and predicts a decision win.

Tybura by decision
"I'm going to take the underdog here and Marchin tabber to win this fight and I'm going to take him to win this fight by decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

The host notes that the UFC has brought Parkin along slowly, and now he faces a tough veteran. Parkin's athletic advantages in striking and grappling will be too much for the aging Tybura, leading to a late finish or decision win.

finish late in the fight or decision
"I think Parkin's athletic advantages here from his striking advantage to even some grappling that people have yet to see will be too much for the aging Tyboro to deal with."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

The Guru is confident in Mick Parkin, praising his conditioning, patience, and well-rounded game. He notes that Tybura has beaten many heavyweights who rush for a finish, but Parkin is patient and won't make that mistake. He expects Parkin to chop at the legs, stay composed, and win a 29-28 decision, as he has seen Parkin answer grappling questions that other Tybura opponents could not.

decision 29-28
"I'm going with Mick Parkin guys Mick Parkin's going to get this one done"
WIN vs Jhonata Diniz
TKO (doctor stoppage) R2 5:00 · UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · Nov 16, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marcin Tybura 0 35 of 49 71% 153 of 187 1 of 3 33% 0 1 7:14
Jhonata Diniz 0 15 of 29 51% 27 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:36
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marcin Tybura 0 3 of 5 60% 66 of 82 0 of 1 0% 0 1 3:57
Jhonata Diniz 0 7 of 14 50% 17 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:36
2 Marcin Tybura 0 32 of 44 72% 87 of 105 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:17
Jhonata Diniz 0 8 of 15 53% 10 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marcin Tybura 35 of 49 71% 33 of 46 1 of 2 1 of 1 9 of 19 0 of 0 26 of 30
Jhonata Diniz 15 of 29 51% 13 of 27 1 of 1 1 of 1 8 of 18 1 of 1 6 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marcin Tybura 3 of 5 60% 2 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 3
Jhonata Diniz 7 of 14 50% 7 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 1 of 1 6 of 10
2 Marcin Tybura 32 of 44 72% 31 of 42 0 of 1 1 of 1 8 of 17 0 of 0 24 of 27
Jhonata Diniz 8 of 15 53% 6 of 13 1 of 1 1 of 1 8 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jhonata Diniz vs. Marcin Tybura
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Tybura (-148), Diniz (+124)

Round 1
With Derrick Lewis out for the time being, Tybura (25-9, 12-8 UFC) is now the man who stands across the Octagon from undefeated hammer-thrower Diniz (8-0, 2-0 UFC). The Brazilian came in a few weeks ago expecting to serve as the favorite against “The Black Beast,” but instead he finds himself in a pick-‘em with a well-rounded Polish heavyweight. The big men get after it as soon as referee Herb Dean says go, with a touch of gloves a formality that happens first. Tybura strikes first with a body kick, and he shells up to block two punches up top. Diniz lets fly a surprising head kick, and he blitzes forward and clips the Polish fighter with a short, mean left hand. Tybura falls to his back, and Diniz gladly leaps on top while moving to half guard hacking down with elbows. Tybura attempts a sweep, but Diniz blasts him in the face with hammerfists in an effort to stop it. Tybura steels himself and completes the reversal, dumping the undefeated fighter on his back and lowering himself down into half guard. Diniz clings to the man on top of him to prevent most offense from raining down on him, and the crowd does not appreciate the stalemate that follows. Tybura uses his full body weight to press down, staying chest-to-chest and getting off short strikes on either side. Tybura covers Diniz’ mouth when not smacking him with short strikes that are more irritating than damaging. Tybura grinds with an elbow on the chin, and he uses the awkward face covering to step over to full mount. Tybura keeps tightly pressed rather than posturing up, smothering the unbeaten man and making his life miserable. Tybura sits up to drive a few punches on the chin, and Diniz ties him up again to save himself. Tybura gets in a single heavy elbow, and he rides out the remainder of the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tybura
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Tybura
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Tybura

Round 2
Gloves are touched to start the round, and once more, Tybura aims a kick to the ribs. Diniz crowds him with a right hand, and Tybura backs off to reset. Tybura reaches out with a left hand that comes up short, and he pushes out a front kick that is also inaccurate. Diniz’ clubbing right hand bounces off the guard, and he narrowly evades a front kick aimed at his chin. Tybura keeps his distance with another front kick, and he dings Diniz with a straight left. Diniz bites down on his mouthpiece and slugs the Polish fighter in the jaw with a few heavy blows, and Tybura strikes back and slips away. Tybura splits the guard with a left, and Diniz wings back three punches that get his attention. Tybura drops down, ducking a punch and setting up a double-leg takedown. “Tybur” climbs into half guard, and Diniz claims that he is getting poked in the eye. Dean tells them to keep working, and Tybura does so with sporadic but effective ground-and-pound. With 1:50 remaining in the round, Tybura assumes full mount, and he starts fishing for an armlock by gripping Diniz’ right wrist and torqueing it. Tybura lets it go so he can set up a crucifix, and he beats down on the Brazilian with punches and elbows. Tybura pounds down with a pair of elbows, and he opens up with several more than rip Diniz’ face wide open. Blood sprays across the canvas in a display reminiscent of the infamous “you don’t know where I’ve been, Lou” scene, only it is the man on his back that is pouring red fluid everywhere. Tybura jackhammers the Brazilian with a massive flurry of elbows, and Diniz barely survives to the bell as cuts are all over his face with blood streaming everywhere. Diniz has to be helped back to his corner, and doctors are going to look closely at him.
Before the third round opens, physicians attend to Diniz and check his condition. He passes the vision test, and the cutman appears to have sealed most of the open wounds on him. However, Diniz is wobbly on his feet even after a minute to recover, and the doctor does not want any further damage inflicted on the Brazilian.
Diniz starts shouting that he is fine, able to continue and is not as hurt as he appears. The medical team thinks otherwise, informing Dean that Diniz’ condition is no bueno and that he should not be fighting anymore today. Dean accepts their advice and calls a halt to the match between rounds, giving a 5:00 finish by doctor stoppage to the Polish fighter.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Tybura
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-8 Tybura
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-8 Tybura

The Official Result
Marcin Tybura def. Jhonata Diniz R2 5:00 via TKO (Doctor Stoppage)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Angelo picks Marcin Tybura, emphasizing that Tybura is a durable grinder who can get fights to the ground, while Jhonata Diniz is useless off his back. He notes that Diniz has great striking but untested takedown defense, and Tybura will eat shots to get the takedown. He hopes Tybura is an underdog and plans to bet if so.

Angelo says he will bet on Tybura if he is an underdog, and mentions using the Discord for alerts.
"we're picking marcine he's old he's slow as hell the haircuts insane ... but he is a grinder that can get fights to the ground"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Big Brady leans with Marcin Tybura, believing that if Tybura gets the fight to the mat, he will dominate. He notes that Tybura often gets beat up on the feet before wrestling, but if he uses his fight IQ and takes Diniz down early, he can finish. He also mentions that Diniz is vulnerable on the ground, as seen in fights against Austin Lane and Karl Williams. Brady predicts a first-round knockout via ground and pound or submission.

fight time under 9.75 minutes, under 1.5 rounds
"I do got a lean with tyur here I just think if he gets the fight down to the mat it's a wrap"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Cody picks Marcin Tybura by submission, citing Tybura's grappling advantage and Diniz's poor takedown defense. He notes Tybura has taken down many heavyweights and has a black belt in BJJ. Cody expects Tybura to take Diniz down and submit him, possibly in the first round.

submission, round 1 (plus 800)
"I took Mar marching daura by submission and it just kind of comes down to like the Tai taiu iasa fight"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 15, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Tybura's wrestling will be too much for Diniz. He mentions that Diniz's game is busy in the pocket but that Tybura can tie him up and drag him down. Connor also notes that Tybura has been knocked out before but is durable and awkward.

"Yeah, I think this is a good fight for marty and tibera. Yeah, agreed."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jhonata Diniz

Daniel Vreeland picks Jhonata Diniz as an underdog, believing he can survive Tybura's takedowns and win on the feet. He notes Diniz's youth, reach, and power, and thinks Tybura is declining. He acknowledges Tybura's ground game but expects Diniz to avoid or survive bad positions and land strikes. He mentions the odds movement as a factor.

"I think I'm willing to roll the dice on the underdog here"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Vreeland picks Tybura as his lock, stating he is 1000% sure Tybura will take down and ground-and-pound Diniz. He believes Tybura's wrestling and top control will be too much for Diniz, leading to a TKO finish.

Marcin Tybura wins by KO/TKO (+525)
"I think Marine tybera is a thousand per gonna take down and grounded pound uh janat Den KN"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Fox picks Oliveira as his lock instead of Tybura, saying he got even safer. He does not provide detailed reasoning for this pick in the transcript, but it is clear he is confident in Oliveira.

"I'm taking Charles Oar... I'm playing it tight now"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2024 (fight day)
Marcin Tybura

The host notes Tybura is a different opponent than Diniz was expecting (originally scheduled to face Derrick Lewis). He expects Tybura to showcase his full MMA game, staying away from Diniz's striking, getting the fight to the ground, and finding a submission opportunity.

submission
"I'm expecting Toro to Showcase his full MMA game here staying away from the Striking of Dennis getting this fight to the ground and eventually finding a submission opportunity"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Paul picks Marcin Tybura, citing his experience and grappling. He notes Diniz is a one-dimensional striker with poor grappling, and Tybura will take him down and control him. Paul expects Tybura to win by decision or submission, and is confident in the pick.

"Ty bro is a play for me and again I'm glad it's early on the card because I may take a bath on this one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 11, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Jhonata Diniz

The MMA Guru picks Jhonata Diniz, noting his kickboxing background and KO power. He sees value in Diniz as a slight underdog. He believes Diniz's takedown defense will hold up and that he can KO Tybura early, possibly with a jab.

KO/TKO in early rounds
"I'm going to go with janat denz... I think he's got the ability to pick up the takedown defense quite quickly... I can see janat denz getting a KO here"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 15, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Zane picks Tybura, expecting him to take Diniz down and get his back. He notes that Tybura is one of the few backtake artists in the heavyweight division and that Diniz is not prepared for that grappling. Zane acknowledges that Tybura can get knocked out early, but he trusts Tybura's wrestling to prevail.

Odds: Tybura opened +115, now -142; Diniz opened -129, now +127. Zane notes it's not hopeless for Diniz if he kicks Tybura's legs early.
"I this looks like I've done a type world win first and foremost, but if he gets caught cold i'm not going to be... No, it would not be a shock."
LOSS vs Serghei Spivac
Submission (armbar) R1 1:44 · UFC on ESPN: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · Aug 10, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Serghei Spivac 0 0 of 4 0% 9 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:43
Marcin Tybura 0 3 of 5 60% 8 of 11 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Serghei Spivac 0 0 of 4 0% 9 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:43
Marcin Tybura 0 3 of 5 60% 8 of 11 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:34
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Serghei Spivac 0 of 4 0% 0 of 2 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marcin Tybura 3 of 5 60% 2 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Serghei Spivac 0 of 4 0% 0 of 2 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marcin Tybura 3 of 5 60% 2 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 4, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Angelo picks Marcin Tybura because he already won the first fight and has good takedown defense (only taken down once in six years). He notes that Spivac hasn't evolved much and had a sloppy fight against Oleinik. However, he cautions that Tybura is 38 and Spivac is 9 years younger, and heavyweights are unpredictable. He likely won't bet on this fight.

Likely no money on this fight; age difference a concern
"I think Tor wins here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Cody agrees with Paul, favoring Tybura due to his cardio, striking, wrestling, and experience. He points out that Spivac's skill set hasn't evolved, his grappling isn't high-level, and he struggles when he can't take down opponents. Cody believes Tybura's ability to persevere and land better shots in later rounds gives him the edge.

"I'm going to agree it's a dogger pass main event for me as well it's not like there's huge dog money on marcine Toro but you got a guy that won the previous matchup"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Tybura is the better overall fighter with superior striking, cardio, and experience. He won the first fight and has only lost to top-tier heavyweights since. Spivac's improvements may not be enough to overcome Tybura's well-rounded game. The fight likely goes to the scorecards, making Tybura by decision a solid play at plus money.

Tybura by decision; over 2.5 rounds (or over 3.5 rounds) at even money
"I still think he's the better overall fighter in this spot better Striker can compete in the wrestling in my opinion maybe the better pure BJJ specialist probably the better cardio so it's kind of surprising to see him as …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Paul favors Tybura because he won the previous matchup and still holds advantages in striking, wrestling, cardio, and experience. He notes Spivac hasn't evolved much, has robotic striking, poor cardio, and relies on wrestling which Tybura can neutralize. Paul sees Tybura as a durable journeyman who can grind out a win in a five-round fight.

"I took some Plus 138 on Tuesday Cody cuz I just think tor's got better standup submission grappling may be an edge there speac really lays on the wrestling on a lot of people is he able to you know …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

The MMA Guru picks Marcin Tybura, citing his win in their first fight and his improved takedown defense. He notes Tybura's cardio advantage in a five-round fight and his ability to win later rounds, as seen against Blaydes and Romanov. He criticizes Spivac's lack of improvement and finishing ability, pointing out that Spivac landed no significant strikes against Tom Aspinall.

"I'm gonna go with Martin toura over Sergey spivac I don't think toura can be finished on the ground and their first fight toura one"
WIN vs Tai Tuivasa
Submission R1 4:08 · UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura · Mar 16, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marcin Tybura 0 15 of 24 62% 18 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tai Tuivasa 0 27 of 41 65% 73 of 96 1 of 4 25% 1 0 2:48
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marcin Tybura 0 15 of 24 62% 18 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tai Tuivasa 0 27 of 41 65% 73 of 96 1 of 4 25% 1 0 2:48
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marcin Tybura 15 of 24 62% 9 of 17 1 of 2 5 of 5 8 of 17 7 of 7 0 of 0
Tai Tuivasa 27 of 41 65% 23 of 34 4 of 7 0 of 0 8 of 20 0 of 0 19 of 21
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marcin Tybura 15 of 24 62% 9 of 17 1 of 2 5 of 5 8 of 17 7 of 7 0 of 0
Tai Tuivasa 27 of 41 65% 23 of 34 4 of 7 0 of 0 8 of 20 0 of 0 19 of 21
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Tai Tuivasa vs. Marcin Tybura
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Tuivasa (-122), Tybura (+105)

Round 1
Heavyweights put meat back on the menu for the marquee matchup. Likely having to cut down in weight to reach 266 pounds, Tuivasa (14-6, 8-6 UFC) is ready to let his heavy hands fly. Tybura (24-8, 11-7 UFC), who will be almost 20 pounds lighter officially—not counting whatever Tuivasa weight lost to get there—would prefer not to be on the receiving end of those fists. Although it is always possible that this could go 25 minutes, referee Herb Dean is ready for this to be done sooner than later. He brings them together, and they bump gloves before trying to take the other’s head off. Tuivasa sticks out a jab, and Tybura releases a body kick and a right hand in response. Tuivasa aims a body kick and connects with a few right hands, and Tybura closes in and gets clacked with several elbows on the forehead. The elbows slide Tybura’s head open on several places, causing blood to flow fast. Tybura looks to his hand to see the blood, and Tuivasa starts letting go with heavy leg kicks Tybura lumbers forward, walking through strikes to shoot in for a double. Tybura clasps his hands, and when Tuivasa punches him on the side of the head, he lifts the Aussie up and slams him down to the ground. “Tybur” lands in half guard and starts driving down right hands, and he lets Tuivasa turn to his knees so he can take the back. Tybura gets both hooks in and starts raining down right hands on the side of the head. As he continues to pound on “Bam Bam,” Tuivasa lowers himself down and does not seem otherwise worse for wear. Tuivasa turns to his side and tries to defend the sledgehammers with one hand. Tybura keeps heavy and allows Tuivasa to turn over so he can keep bludgeoning the Aussie. Tybura softens his man up before locking down a rear-naked choke, and he secures it under the chin. Tuivasa fights the grip and kicks with his legs to tough out the choke, and he tries to slowly slide his jaw down to escape choke danger. Tybura does not release the grip even when he hears Tuivasa gasping for air and clinging to consciousness, but he knows the finish is right around the corner. The Polish heavyweight retains his grip, and as he presses down with his full weight from behind, he puts Tuivasa all the way out. Tuivasa goes out on his shield, his arm flopping to the side, and Dean recognizes this immediately and halts the fight. This is a massive win for Tybura, even with Tuivasa skidding, as he lands the first submission in his UFC career, doing so under bright lights. With that technical submission—not the first of the night, making this card somewhat unusual—in the books, this show comes to a close. The Apex will play host again next week to another event before taking to the road, and we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

The Official Result
Marcin Tybura def. Tai Tuivasa R1 4:08 via Technical Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Angelo notes that Tuivasa's chin is gone after three consecutive knockout losses to elite heavyweights, and his takedown defense is only 54%. Tybura is a durable grinder who uses strikes to set up takedowns and will pound on opponents once on top. He thinks Tybura can rush Tuivasa against the cage and grind through takedowns. He is watching the line movement, hoping to get Tybura at +120 or +130 as the fan favorite gets action.

watching line movement; hopes for better odds
"tybor is the underdog pick here I am going to watch the line movement a lot of these fights I'm watching the line movement"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

Big Brady picks Tai Tuivasa to win by first-round knockout. He believes Tuivasa's power and striking advantage will be too much for Tybura, who lacks power and has been knocked out before. He notes the risk if the fight goes long and Tybura gets on top, but expects Tuivasa to land first.

by first round knockout
"Give me a taiu iasa first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

Cody leans toward Tai Tuivasa, citing his early explosiveness and power as likely too much for Tybura, who has been knocked out quickly in recent fights. He notes Tybura's wrestling threat but believes Tuivasa can stuff early takedowns and land a knockout before the fight gets deep. He acknowledges the line is even money and both have a chance, but Tuivasa's youth and power give him the edge.

by KO
"I feel like I want to go Tai Tuivasa... I just got like a nagging suspicion that Tai's power is just too much for him he crumples him up early."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Mar 12, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Lucrative James is torn on this fight. He acknowledges that stylistically Tai Tuivasa could knock out Tybura, but he is concerned about Tuivasa's mental state, recent three-fight losing streak, and a knee injury three months prior. He also notes Tybura's reliability and grinding style, comparing it to the Blaydes fight. He ultimately decides he likely won't bet on this fight but might play Tuivasa KO in round 1 or 2 or Tybura by decision.

"I can see Ty knocking him out in round one for sure but I can also see Tor just weathering the storm and just coming in as the more reliable heavyweight..."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Marcin Tybura

The host notes Tuivasa is on a losing streak and heavily reliant on knockout power, but when facing cleaner, crisper opponents he often comes up short. He expects Tybura to have a cleaner all-around game, roughing up Tuivasa in the clinch, dragging him to the floor, and possibly opening up a submission. He acknowledges Tuivasa's power but believes Tybura can avoid it due to Tuivasa's telegraphing. He compares Tybura's ability to take big shots from past opponents and still win, predicting Tybura dictates the fight and grinds out a decision or an arm triangle choke.

arm triangle choke
"I think Toro will come up short against the Tom Aspen of the world but we've seen him take some big shots from guys like Greg Hardy and Walt Harris as well as Ben Rothwell and he rolls well with …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

Paul also picks Tai Tuivasa by knockout, agreeing with Cody that Tybura's wrestling is not likely to be effective early when Tuivasa is fresh. He notes that Tybura will have to eat shots to close distance and that the small cage helps Tuivasa. He acknowledges the unpredictability of heavyweights but sees this as a decent matchup for Tuivasa to get back on track.

by KO
"I'm picking Tai as well I think Tai by knockout... in those first seven and a half minutes or so he's if he does try to close distance he's going to be eating shots trying to do so."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

The Guru picks Tai Tuivasa by TKO in round one or two. He believes Tuivasa's calf kicks will be effective against Tybura, who lacks the low kick defense of Volkov. He notes Tuivasa's ability to get back up from takedowns and his power punching, especially uppercuts and hooks. He thinks Tybura is hittable and Tuivasa will find his chin, as he did against Ciryl Gane.

round one or two KO
"I'm going to go with round two or one KO for tyu evasa... I think tuivasa is going to capitalize chopping that car early and then started to bring it upstairs."
LOSS vs Tom Aspinall
TKO (elbow and punches) R1 1:13 · UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · Jul 22, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tom Aspinall 1 13 of 18 72% 13 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Marcin Tybura 0 4 of 15 26% 4 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tom Aspinall 1 13 of 18 72% 13 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Marcin Tybura 0 4 of 15 26% 4 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tom Aspinall 13 of 18 72% 12 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 10 0 of 0 6 of 8
Marcin Tybura 4 of 15 26% 2 of 13 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tom Aspinall 13 of 18 72% 12 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 10 0 of 0 6 of 8
Marcin Tybura 4 of 15 26% 2 of 13 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock picked Jul 16, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Tom Aspinall

Angelo is all-in on Tom Aspinall, believing he should dominate anywhere the fight goes. He acknowledges the knee injury concern but thinks Aspinall's speed, power, and BJJ are superior. He calls Aspinall the most confident pick on the card and suggests him as a parlay piece with Molly McCann.

suggested as parlay piece with Molly McCann
"I'm all in on Tom aspinall here I think he's a solid parlay piece"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Tom Aspinall

Big Brady picks Tom Aspinall to win by first-round knockout. He calls it a setup fight for Aspinall after his injury. He notes Tybura has been knocked out by Derrick Lewis and others, and questions his chin. He thinks Aspinall's speed and power will be too much, and Tybura's only path is to take Aspinall down or outlast him, which he doubts. He mentions Tybura looked skinny at the face-off.

first round knockout
"give me Tom aspinall Tom Aspen to win this fight by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Cody acknowledges Aspinall is likely to win but sees value on Tybura at +380 due to Aspinall's knee injury and heavyweight volatility. He took a very small bet on Tybura, fully expecting to lose, but thinks the price is too high on Aspinall. He mentions that historically, plus money heavyweights have value.

small bet on Tybura moneyline at +380
"I took a little bit very very small bet of Marcin tibora plus 380. I'm prepared to look really really dumb"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Tom Aspinall

Daniel picks Tom Aspinall to win, citing his speed, technical striking, and well-rounded game including takedowns and submissions. He notes that Aspinall represents the new wave of heavyweights and has a significant speed advantage over Tybura. However, he is concerned about the price at -475, calling it a 'sucker bet' and stating he lines Aspinall closer to -400. He also mentions the risk of freak injury given Aspinall's recent surgery. Despite the pick, he passes on betting due to poor value.

Daniel says the price is 'absolutely terrible' and that laying -475 to -500 is a 'sucker bet'. He lines Aspinall closer to -400 and passes on betting.
"I do think Tom's gonna win this fight but I mean I think that laying minus 475 to minus 500 here is a sucker bet"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Tom Aspinall

James picks Tom Aspinall to win by finish in round two. He acknowledges Aspinall's cardio is an unknown but notes that the only evidence of a cardio issue was the Arlovski fight where Aspinall seemed to have an adrenaline dump but still finished. He believes Aspinall is better than Tybura everywhere and that Tybura's only advantages are experience and potential cardio. James thinks Aspinall will be smarter this time and not steamroll in round one, but will get the finish in round two. He mentions that Tybura at +350 is the value side but he still favors Aspinall.

Tom Aspinall wins in round two
"I think he probably finishes tybora in round two and that's my prediction of the fire I've got time in round two"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Tom Aspinall

The host picks Tom Aspinall, citing his speed, power, and ability to finish. He notes Tybura has been hurt early in fights before but that Aspinall is a better finisher than those opponents. He predicts a first-round stoppage and suggests targeting under 1.5 rounds.

under 1.5 rounds at -140/-150
"I think that early speed and power Advantage for Tom aspinel is going to be too much for tibura... I think it's going to end up with him getting his hand raised by a first round stoppage here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tom Aspinall

Paul picks Aspinall but notes the price is too high to bet straight. He suggests live betting Tybura after the first round if Aspinall gasses. He highlights Aspinall's speed, power, and BJJ, but also his cardio concerns and the knee injury. He would hedge if Aspinall is on a parlay.

suggests live betting Tybura after round 1
"I would take Tom maskman all here don't know if I end up putting them on the top ticket an option"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Tom Aspinall

The MMA Guru picks Tom Aspinall, calling it a logical pick. He criticizes Marcin Tybura's age and conditioning, and notes Tybura has no submission wins in the UFC. The Guru believes Aspinall has a massive advantage on the feet and on the ground, and predicts a finish in the first round, either by TKO or takedown. He also mentions Aspinall's year off and vengeance after surgery.

finish in first round
"I'm going with asper now I think it's a very logical pick"
WIN vs Blagoy Ivanov
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac · Feb 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marcin Tybura 0 40 of 103 38% 61 of 133 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:55
Blagoy Ivanov 0 34 of 113 30% 34 of 113 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marcin Tybura 0 22 of 45 48% 22 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Blagoy Ivanov 0 12 of 41 29% 12 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Marcin Tybura 0 17 of 57 29% 17 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Blagoy Ivanov 0 22 of 72 30% 22 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Marcin Tybura 0 1 of 1 100% 22 of 31 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:55
Blagoy Ivanov 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marcin Tybura 40 of 103 38% 12 of 70 19 of 24 9 of 9 39 of 102 0 of 0 1 of 1
Blagoy Ivanov 34 of 113 30% 24 of 98 10 of 15 0 of 0 34 of 112 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marcin Tybura 22 of 45 48% 5 of 26 10 of 12 7 of 7 22 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Blagoy Ivanov 12 of 41 29% 8 of 35 4 of 6 0 of 0 12 of 40 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Marcin Tybura 17 of 57 29% 7 of 44 9 of 12 1 of 1 17 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
Blagoy Ivanov 22 of 72 30% 16 of 63 6 of 9 0 of 0 22 of 72 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Marcin Tybura 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1
Blagoy Ivanov 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jan 29, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Blagoy Ivanov

Big Brady calls this a messy fight and expects it to go to a greasy decision. He picks the underdog Ivanov because he is more durable and has never been finished, while Tybura has been finished multiple times. He is not confident and advises against betting.

over 2.5 rounds, fight goes to decision
"I'm gonna take even off to win a very greasy split decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Blagoy Ivanov

Cody picks Ivanov at plus money, calling it a close heavyweight fight. He believes Ivanov has a slight edge in technical boxing and volume. He notes both fighters are low-volume and durable, expecting a decision. He took Ivanov at +130 and thinks the fight is essentially 50-50, so he takes the underdog.

"I took the plus money at plus 130... I think he's got a maybe a slight Edge in uh in like technical boxing a slight Edge in volume"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Feb 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Connor picks Marcin Tybura, expecting a split decision. He notes that Tybura is more proactive with kicks and combinations, and will likely be the one initiating clinch exchanges. However, he acknowledges Ivanov's durability and defensive wrestling, which could make the fight ugly. Connor is confident it will be a split decision but leans Tybura due to higher output.

split decision
"I am absolutely confident that this will be a split decision... I got to assume that Tibora just being more proactive is going to win in this fight."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Paul picks Tybura, arguing that Ivanov has looked slow and predictable in recent fights. He notes Ivanov's poor cardio and lack of takedown attempts, while Tybura has good cardio and mobility for a heavyweight. He expects Tybura to outwork Ivanov, especially in the later rounds. He also likes the under on Tybura 1.5 takedowns on PrizePicks.

Tybura under 1.5 takedowns (PrizePicks)
"I went the other way I just can't get behind blah boy anymore... gotta go the other way here in marcine Tabor but middling heavyweights expect the worst"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Feb 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Zane picks Marcin Tybura, agreeing that it will be a split decision. He notes that Tybura has better tools at range and is more likely to control the clinch. However, he warns that Ivanov's power and chin could cause an upset if Tybura gets hurt. Zane sees Tybura's improved composure as a key factor.

split decision
"I am absolutely confident that this will be a split decision... I got to assume that Tibora just being more proactive is going to win in this fight."
Alexandr Romanov - Fight History
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · Nov 02, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexandr Romanov 0 45 of 92 48% 87 of 135 6 of 10 60% 1 0 7:33
Rodrigo Nascimento 0 31 of 91 34% 48 of 108 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexandr Romanov 0 2 of 5 40% 32 of 36 4 of 5 80% 1 0 4:47
Rodrigo Nascimento 0 1 of 1 100% 4 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Alexandr Romanov 0 17 of 28 60% 26 of 37 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:46
Rodrigo Nascimento 0 10 of 34 29% 24 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Alexandr Romanov 0 26 of 59 44% 29 of 62 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Rodrigo Nascimento 0 20 of 56 35% 20 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexandr Romanov 45 of 92 48% 37 of 82 3 of 5 5 of 5 39 of 79 4 of 8 2 of 5
Rodrigo Nascimento 31 of 91 34% 19 of 77 7 of 9 5 of 5 30 of 90 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexandr Romanov 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 5
Rodrigo Nascimento 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Alexandr Romanov 17 of 28 60% 14 of 23 2 of 4 1 of 1 15 of 24 2 of 4 0 of 0
Rodrigo Nascimento 10 of 34 29% 7 of 30 3 of 4 0 of 0 9 of 33 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Alexandr Romanov 26 of 59 44% 21 of 54 1 of 1 4 of 4 24 of 55 2 of 4 0 of 0
Rodrigo Nascimento 20 of 56 35% 12 of 47 3 of 4 5 of 5 20 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Oct 27, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Angelo picks Romanov despite acknowledging he has a quit button and has looked soft recently. He believes Romanov is the better wrestler and only needs one takedown per round to win. He notes Romanov has been competing in grappling competitions outside the UFC. He admits he is a 'simp for wrestlers' and bet on Romanov at +115. He worries about Romanov's weight cut and says you never know until you see him on the scale.

bet on Romanov at +115
"I did bet on him at plus 115 I just saw the underdog money I believe in them I am a simp for wrestlers just a FYI so you know love it hate it tail it fade it"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

Big Brady picks Rodrigo Nascimento to win by second-round submission, but with low confidence. He heavily criticizes Romanov's cardio and submission defense, calling them the worst he's ever seen. Brady notes that if Romanov doesn't finish early, he gasses out. He trusts Nascimento's BJJ black belt and cardio, expecting him to survive takedowns and eventually submit a gassed Romanov. He says he wants to see weigh-ins before finalizing.

submission in round 2
"I got to go naso here just based out the fact that he is a BJJ black belt... I'll take naso second round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Cody picks Alexander Romanov, citing his wrestling advantage and higher level of competition. He notes that Nascimento has poor durability and cardio, and has lost to lower-level opponents. He believes Romanov can win a striking fight or mix in takedowns to secure a victory. He acknowledges Romanov's inconsistency but sees Nascimento as a favorable matchup.

"I think Romanov can just strictly win a striking fight and I think he can mix in a few takedowns along the way."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

Daniel Vreeland picks Rodrigo Nascimento, citing Alexander Romanov's decline after being figured out and his lack of depth beyond suplexes. He believes Nascimento is more well-rounded and consistent, though he has a questionable chin. Vreeland notes that Romanov hasn't looked the same since his stunts and that Nascimento's improvement fight-to-fight gives him the edge, but he's not highly confident.

"I'm GNA pick uh Nasim Mena"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

Romanov is dangerous early with his wrestling, but Nascimento will stay out of danger, pull away in the second and third rounds, and likely get a finish late.

finish late
"I believe Nascimento will be able to stay out of too much danger allowing him to pull away in the second and third rounds and probably getting a finish late."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Paul picks Romanov but is hesitant, noting his inconsistency and cardio issues. He believes Romanov's wrestling and physicality should be enough to beat Nascimento, who he sees as a lower-level heavyweight. He mentions that Romanov's best skill is his takedown ability, but he struggles to maintain control. He expects a close fight but favors Romanov.

"I'll side with Romanov and the fact that he should be able to dictate range of this fight if he wants."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

The Guru picks Alexander Romanov over Rodrigo Nascimento, believing Romanov's grappling will be the difference. He criticizes Nascimento's talent level and notes Romanov's decent offensive grappling. He suggests a possible early TKO finish in the first round and mentions that betting on Romanov for an early finish might offer good odds.

TKO early, maybe first round finish, good odds
"I'm going to go with Alexander Romanov here to get it done over Rodrigo and asento maybe by TKO early or maybe a finish in the first round might be some good odds here"
LOSS vs Jailton Almeida
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 2:27 · UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · Jun 01, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jailton Almeida 0 1 of 2 50% 2 of 3 1 of 2 50% 2 0 2:07
Alexandr Romanov 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jailton Almeida 0 1 of 2 50% 2 of 3 1 of 2 50% 2 0 2:07
Alexandr Romanov 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jailton Almeida 1 of 2 50% 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alexandr Romanov 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jailton Almeida 1 of 2 50% 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alexandr Romanov 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 26, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Angelo picks Jailton Almeida confidently, citing his relentless wrestling and power. He notes that Romanov has quit in fights before and has looked out of shape, while Almeida is always in shape and can take down anyone. He believes Almeida will ragdoll Romanov and eventually get a finish or a quit.

"I think jolton NOA is that guy I think he ragd dolls Romanov"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 31, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Big Brady leans toward Jailton Almeida but is not fully bought in, calling it a great bounce-back spot. He thinks Almeida gets takedowns and eventually a finish, with much better cardio. However, he is iffy on Almeida and notes that if Romanov gets on top, he could win. He expects someone gets finished and will play both sides, with Romanov as a punt play down low.

fight doesn't go to decision (-325), Jailton Almeida wins inside the distance
"I think it's a great bounce back spot here for Gilton but it's hard to completely trust a guy"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Cody picks Almeida, arguing Romanov has not improved, has poor cardio, and has shown a quitting mentality (e.g., vs Volkov). He notes Almeida took down Curtis Blaydes nine times and has better cardio. Cody believes Almeida will take Romanov down, wear him out, and either submit him or win by TKO. He dismisses Romanov's wins as over low-level opposition.

"Romanov's mad suspect... he's not trending upwards... Almeida can take down anybody... I got more faith in that than Romanov."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 30, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Daniel Vreeland also picks Almeida, noting he has the advantage wherever the fight goes. Romanov will want to wrestle but Almeida is the better grappler. Vreeland is disappointed in Romanov's quitting tendencies and sees Almeida as a good bounce-back fight after the Blades loss.

"I am going with jelton as well um has the advantage wherever this goes"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked May 28, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Daniel notes both are grapplers with red flags. He points out Romanov's size advantage and that he's a dog for the first time, suggesting a market overcorrection. He is unsure but goes with the underdog Romanov.

"I'm gonna go Romanov on a limb"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked May 30, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Jeff Fox is very confident in Almeida, calling the -250 line a steal. He argues that Almeida took Curtis Blades down 10 times in five minutes, and Blades is one of the best heavyweight wrestlers ever. Romanov, by contrast, quits when he doesn't have the grappling advantage, as seen in past fights. Fox expects Almeida to dominate and Romanov to quit early.

"I can't believe Jon's negative 250 in this fight he should beg negative 3,000"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

The host believes Almeida's superior gas tank and grappling will overcome Romanov's early wrestling. Romanov's cardio issues will resurface as Almeida pressures him, leading to a finish in the second round via TKO or submission. Almeida's ability to take down and smash opponents is the key, and Romanov's recent decision win is not enough to change the host's mind.

inside the distance
"I do like Almeida inside the distance."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Paul leans toward Romanov as a dog, calling it a 'classic dogger pass heavyweight situation.' He notes Romanov's solid wrestling and Almeida's lack of a plan B if takedowns fail. He points out Almeida gassed against Curtis Blaydes after nine takedowns. Paul thinks Romanov can win by decision if he avoids getting submitted, and mentions the tempting plus money price.

Romanov by decision
"This is a classic dogger pass heavyweight type of situation... Romanov's had a very controversial run but Almeida doesn't have a plan B."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

The MMA Guru picks Jailton Almeida, criticizing Romanov's poor shape and calling him a 'fat [__]'. He believes Almeida will ragdoll Romanov with grappling and that Romanov will gas out. He expresses frustration that the UFC keeps Almeida active despite his boring style.

"I'm going to side with Jon ala tossing Miss fat [__] round like a big slab of [__] pork in the [__] cage"
WIN vs Blagoy Ivanov
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Strickland vs. Magomedov · Jul 01, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexandr Romanov 0 85 of 154 55% 104 of 180 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:53
Blagoy Ivanov 0 44 of 108 40% 44 of 108 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexandr Romanov 0 17 of 31 54% 17 of 31 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
Blagoy Ivanov 0 13 of 29 44% 13 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Alexandr Romanov 0 22 of 41 53% 38 of 64 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:43
Blagoy Ivanov 0 9 of 28 32% 9 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Alexandr Romanov 0 46 of 82 56% 49 of 85 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:03
Blagoy Ivanov 0 22 of 51 43% 22 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexandr Romanov 85 of 154 55% 52 of 121 11 of 11 22 of 22 74 of 137 4 of 4 7 of 13
Blagoy Ivanov 44 of 108 40% 38 of 102 5 of 5 1 of 1 44 of 108 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexandr Romanov 17 of 31 54% 5 of 19 5 of 5 7 of 7 16 of 30 1 of 1 0 of 0
Blagoy Ivanov 13 of 29 44% 11 of 27 1 of 1 1 of 1 13 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Alexandr Romanov 22 of 41 53% 12 of 31 2 of 2 8 of 8 18 of 37 1 of 1 3 of 3
Blagoy Ivanov 9 of 28 32% 7 of 26 2 of 2 0 of 0 9 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Alexandr Romanov 46 of 82 56% 35 of 71 4 of 4 7 of 7 40 of 70 2 of 2 4 of 10
Blagoy Ivanov 22 of 51 43% 20 of 49 2 of 2 0 of 0 22 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 25, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Blagoy Ivanov

Angelo picks Blagoy Ivanov but with hesitation, contingent on Romanov's weight cut. He notes Romanov's recent poor performances and lack of cardio, while Ivanov has an iron chin and solid takedown defense. He plans to wait for weigh-ins: if Romanov looks in shape, he'll switch to Romanov; if not, he'll bet Ivanov. He mentions Ivanov at +125.

waiting for weigh-ins; potential bet on Ivanov if Romanov looks out of shape
"right now the pick is going to be Ivanov I the pig is going to be blue Ivanov because Alexander romanov's last two fights he had one round of cardio"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 26, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Blagoy Ivanov

Big Brady picks Blagoy Ivanov to win by third-round finish, but is very hesitant. He notes Romanov has cardio issues and looked terrible at weigh-ins for his last fight, gassing after one minute. Ivanov is extremely durable, has never been knocked out, and has gone to decision in all seven UFC fights. Brady says he needs to see Romanov's weigh-ins to have a stronger opinion, but if Ivanov survives the first round, he should take over and possibly finish late.

third round finish
"I'll say he takes over I'll say third round finish four but goal even off"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jun 28, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Cody is torn on Romanov. He notes Romanov's potential and wrestling, but his poor cardio and questionable heart after the Volkov loss. He thinks if Romanov comes in shape, he can take Ivanov down and win early rounds. However, Ivanov is extremely durable and has never been finished. Cody suggests waiting for weigh-ins and considering live betting.

Live bet Romanov after first round if he looks good
"I am going to pick Romanov but the best way to attack this thing is live"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 29, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Blagoy Ivanov

Daniel picks Ivanov pre-weigh-ins due to Romanov's inconsistency and weight issues. He notes Romanov's drastic weight fluctuation (239 to 264 lbs) and his tendency to quit after failed takedowns. Ivanov is durable, has a 70% takedown defense, and has been competitive in all his losses. However, Daniel reserves the right to change his pick if Romanov weighs in lean (239 lbs). He calls it a 'wait for weigh-ins' situation.

"pre weigh-ins I'ma go blagoy because at least I know like is going to give his best"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 28, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Blagoy Ivanov

Paul picks Ivanov, citing his durability and proven ability to go 15 minutes. He notes Romanov has never shown he can fight past the second round without gassing. Ivanov has gone the distance with top heavyweights and has good grappling. Paul thinks Romanov's cardio and mental toughness are major question marks, and Ivanov will outlast him.

Ivanov round 3 at 12-1
"I'm gonna take every single time the guy has proven time and time again against Elite level competition that he can fight 15 minutes we haven't seen that from Romanov so yeah it's black boy black boy for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jun 27, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

The Guru picks Alexander Romanov but expresses hesitation due to Romanov's terrible performance against Alexander Volkov, where he gave up after a stuffed takedown. However, he believes Romanov can out-grapple Blagoy Ivanov, who is fat and unathletic, using his signature forearm choke. He uses MMA algebra: Romanov outgrappled Tybura, who outgrappled Ivanov. He notes Ivanov is not adding new wrinkles and is aging.

forearm choke submission
"I'm gonna go with Alexander Romanov here over blogore Ivanov I I have to pick Romanov to win"
TKO (punches) R1 2:16 · UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · Mar 11, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexander Volkov 0 12 of 15 80% 27 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:03
Alexandr Romanov 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:38
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexander Volkov 0 12 of 15 80% 27 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:03
Alexandr Romanov 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexander Volkov 12 of 15 80% 8 of 11 4 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 7 3 of 3 5 of 5
Alexandr Romanov 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexander Volkov 12 of 15 80% 8 of 11 4 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 7 3 of 3 5 of 5
Alexandr Romanov 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Alexander Romanov vs. Alexander Volkov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Romanov (-150), Volkov (+130)

Round 1
There is no truth to the rumor that only one man will keep the name Alexander after this heavyweight co-main event comes to a close. In this classic style matchup, striker Volkov (35-10, 9-4 UFC) will collide with grappler Romanov (16-1, 5-1 UFC), and the two are so young in the division that they have at least five more years left in them, if not 10. The battle between “Drago” and “King Kong” will be joined in the cage by referee Mark Smith, who will keep things above board for as long as they need. The two are happy to tangle tonight, and they bump fists together. Volkov pushes the pace immediately, and Romanov greets him with a charging takedown. Volkov defends as he gets pushed from one side of the cage to the other, as Romanov changes up for a single. Volkov clearly and obviously grabs the fence to stay upright, and Romanov stays clung to the left leg until bailing on it to back off. Volkov cracks him with a few punches, and he works the body and scores a right hand that hurts “King Kong.” Romanov tries to take the fight down again, and Volkov moves around deftly to get a hook in and take Romanov’s back. Volkov drills the downed fighter with several vicious undercuts -- uppercuts sneaking beneath his opponent's armpit -- busting up Romanov’s nose and causing blood to spray all over the floor.
Volkov pours it on with punches, and Smith takes a hard look at the action and tells Romanov he needs to fight back. Volkov lets Romanov sit up, and he frees his left hand to belt the Moldovan upside the head. The Russian continues his bombardment of punches, and Smith has no choice but to step in.
Volkov has prevailed in the all-Alexander battle, making short work of the heavier Romanov to earn his second first-round knockout in a row – a first for "Drago" since 2014.

The Official Result
Alexander Volkov def. Alexander Romanov R1 2:16 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Angelo picks Alexander Romanov, believing his wrestling will be the key against Volkov. He notes that Volkov has only lost to top contenders and that Tom Aspinall had success taking him down. He is hopeful for improved cardio from Romanov after his loss at elevation. He considers betting on Romanov since the line is even.

may bet on Romanov moneyline
"the pick is Romanov and I'm hoping we see some improved cardio out of him... I may take the shot shoot my shot and put some money on Romanov there"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Big Brady picks Alexander Romanov, noting he will have many opportunities to take down Volkov, who has poor get-up game. He acknowledges Romanov's cardio is a major concern but thinks Romanov will finish early via submission or TKO. Brady says if Romanov had cardio for three rounds he'd max bet him, but still expects a first-round sub.

win by submission in round 1
"I'm gonna say Romanoff first round sub here should be a very very fun fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Cody picks Romanov but with low confidence, acknowledging Romanov's cardio issues and Volkov's size. He thinks Romanov can use takedowns and cage pressure to neutralize Volkov's striking, but is not sure Romanov has improved his cardio. He suggests live betting Volkov if Romanov tires after the first round.

suggests live betting after first round
"I will pick him uh right now ever so slightly minus 150 is not the worst price tag going but again Kion the after the first round if he gets if volkov gets out of the first round you see …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Connor picks Volkov despite acknowledging he will likely get taken down early. He notes Volkov's durability, ability to get back up, and tendency to outlast opponents who gas. Connor points out that Romanov was exposed against Tabora, showing poor cardio, and that Volkov has a history of finishing tired opponents. However, he admits it's a risky pick given Volkov's poor takedown defense and Romanov's power.

Odds mentioned: Volkov opened -150, now +130; Romanov opened +130, now -157.
"I think I got to pick Volkov here. ... I think I might feel like it's a terrible mistake having by the time this is over, he's had weird points lately where he's looked incredibly flat. ... But I think …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

I lean towards Romanov's early takedown and ground control. His strength and wrestling should get Volkov down early, and from there he can work to a dominant position and find a submission. Volkov's takedown defense has been exploited by strong grapplers before. However, if Volkov survives the early onslaught, his striking could take over later. I see Romanov winning by submission in the first round.

Romanov by submission round 1, fight doesn't go to decision
"I'm gonna lean with the former though I think romanov's a high level well strong takedowns will definitely come to fruition early"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Paul picks Volkov as an underdog, citing Romanov's poor cardio and tendency to fade after the first round. He notes Romanov's impressive first-round wrestling but doubts he can maintain it for three rounds. Paul suggests live betting Volkov after the first round if Romanov tires.

suggests live betting after first round; mentions prize picks line of 2.5 takedowns for Romanov
"I'm gonna go with the underdog and volkov here I think it's probably a better live betting opportunity make sure you get through the first five minutes"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

The MMA Guru picks Alexander Romanov, despite Volkov being the underdog. He believes Romanov's grappling style can be effective against Volkov, who struggles when flat on his back. He notes Romanov's top heaviness and ability to pass guard, and predicts a forearm choke finish. He acknowledges Volkov's striking advantage but thinks Romanov can get the fight to the ground and control it.

by submission (forearm choke)
"I'm actually gonna call an Alexander Romanov forearm choke finish over Alexander volkov"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Zane picks Romanov, citing the three-round format and Romanov's powerful takedowns. He notes that Volkov has poor takedown defense and will likely be taken down early. Zane acknowledges Romanov's cardio issues after the Tabora fight but believes he can overwhelm Volkov in the first two rounds. He admits it's a risky pick and that Volkov could outlast him.

Odds mentioned: Volkov opened -150, now +130; Romanov opened +130, now -157.
"I mean, I think I'm still going to side with Romanov just for the three round thing. Uh, if it was a five rounder, I would absolutely pick Volkov because I have zero reason to think Romanov can make it …"
LOSS vs Marcin Tybura
Decision (majority) (29–28, 29–28, 28–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards 2 · Aug 20, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marcin Tybura 0 47 of 98 47% 82 of 135 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:48
Alexandr Romanov 0 40 of 88 45% 95 of 160 2 of 6 33% 0 1 5:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marcin Tybura 0 0 of 3 0% 1 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alexandr Romanov 0 14 of 18 77% 64 of 81 2 of 3 66% 0 0 4:27
2 Marcin Tybura 0 17 of 36 47% 50 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:48
Alexandr Romanov 0 11 of 25 44% 16 of 34 0 of 3 0% 0 1 0:35
3 Marcin Tybura 0 30 of 59 50% 31 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alexandr Romanov 0 15 of 45 33% 15 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marcin Tybura 47 of 98 47% 30 of 74 10 of 17 7 of 7 43 of 92 2 of 4 2 of 2
Alexandr Romanov 40 of 88 45% 24 of 65 7 of 12 9 of 11 21 of 65 9 of 12 10 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marcin Tybura 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 1 0 of 0
Alexandr Romanov 14 of 18 77% 8 of 10 0 of 1 6 of 7 0 of 1 6 of 8 8 of 9
2 Marcin Tybura 17 of 36 47% 10 of 28 4 of 5 3 of 3 14 of 33 1 of 1 2 of 2
Alexandr Romanov 11 of 25 44% 9 of 22 2 of 3 0 of 0 8 of 22 1 of 1 2 of 2
3 Marcin Tybura 30 of 59 50% 20 of 43 6 of 12 4 of 4 29 of 57 1 of 2 0 of 0
Alexandr Romanov 15 of 45 33% 7 of 33 5 of 8 3 of 4 13 of 42 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Angelo picks Alexandr Romanov over Marcin Tybura. He describes Romanov as a massive, athletic wrestler with a Brock Lesnar style, while Tybura is a durable grinder with okay striking and trips. Angelo acknowledges concerns: Romanov hasn't fought top-20 opponents and was taken down four times by Juan Espino. However, he believes Romanov is too big, fast, and athletic for Tybura, and that Tybura won't get close enough to land his trips. He has moneyline bets on Romanov.

Placed moneyline bets on Romanov.
"i am still all in on romanov i think he's too big too fast and too athletic for the lumbering taebora"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 15, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Big Brady picks Alexandr Romanov but is hesitant. He notes that Romanov struggled with cardio against Juan Espino, but looked in incredible shape against Chase Sherman. Tybura is a tough grappler with good takedown defense and cardio. Brady expects Romanov to get takedowns and win the first two rounds, but concerns about the third round remain. He predicts Romanov wins by decision, though Tybura could have success late if Romanov slows down.

Romanov by decision
"i'll take uh alexander romanov i think his cardio does hold up and i do think he wins the decision but i think ty burr is going to have some success late if romanov does slow down"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Cody picks Romanov, noting his wrestling and athleticism. He mentions Romanov's training at Tiger Muay Thai and his improved cardio. He thinks Tybura is trending downward and Romanov should win, but he won't put him at the top of his parlay due to heavyweight volatility.

"i still think the the big the big roman era sorry the big moldovan fighter gets the job done and once the night's done"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Daniel Levi picks Alexandr Romanov to win, though he acknowledges there is no value on the line at -360. He believes Romanov is a much better athlete and more explosive than Tybura, and that Romanov will get takedowns and grind out a win. He notes that Romanov looked significantly leaner after the Juan Espino fight and seems to be taking his career more seriously. Levi respects Tybura's experience and methodical striking but thinks Romanov's wrestling will be the difference.

Says he is not in a rush to play the line because there's no value, but he thinks Romanov wins at least two rounds if not a finish. Mentions that Tybura has been taken down before (by Derrick Lewis, etc.).
"I'm going to remind off to grind this one up and I think taboro will be back for sure"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Aug 18, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Romanov should win via grappling and top pressure, likely finishing within two rounds. However, Tybura is live as a dog with good BJJ and takedown defense. The host compares this to the David Onama fight last week, warning against laying heavy chalk on finish-reliant fighters. He is not betting this fight due to the risk.

Mentions Romanov inside the distance as likely, but no bet placed.
"I just can't get to the betting window to bet that marching taiboro side i really can't do it."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Paul picks Romanov, citing his wrestling advantage and improved striking. He notes Romanov's cardio concerns but thinks he can get the job done. He likes Romanov over 2.5 takedowns on Prize Picks.

over 2.5 takedowns on Prize Picks
"romanov over two and a half takedowns on prize picks before we get out of there um i mean that's a good lie romanov three he had three against sherman and finished them in the first round five against vander"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 20, 2022 (fight day)
Alexandr Romanov

The Guru predicts Alexandr Romanov wins by first-round TKO. He describes Romanov slamming lead leg kicks and inside leg kicks, then backing Tybura against the cage and landing a clean right overhand that rocks him. He sees Romanov finishing with ground and pound after a takedown.

TKO in round 1
"alexander romanov gets this one done by first round tko"
WIN vs Chase Sherman
Submission (americana) R1 2:11 · UFC on ESPN: Font vs. Vera · Apr 30, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexandr Romanov 0 8 of 14 57% 11 of 17 3 of 3 100% 1 0 1:58
Chase Sherman 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexandr Romanov 0 8 of 14 57% 11 of 17 3 of 3 100% 1 0 1:58
Chase Sherman 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexandr Romanov 8 of 14 57% 8 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 8 of 14
Chase Sherman 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexandr Romanov 8 of 14 57% 8 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 8 of 14
Chase Sherman 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock picked Apr 24, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Angelo picks Romanov as a lock, expecting him to steamroll Sherman. He highlights Romanov's incredible wrestling, speed, and power, and notes Sherman lacks one-punch KO power to stop Romanov's takedowns. He mentions Romanov was a -2500 favorite initially and recommends using him in parlays if the odds are reasonable.

parlay piece; was -2500 favorite initially
"alexander romanov is absolutely 100 gonna be the win here and if you can get him at odds that are not minus 2500 throw him in a parlay"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lock picked Apr 25, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Big Brady is extremely confident in Romanov, calling it a huge mismatch. He notes Romanov's undefeated record and finishing ability, while Sherman is a low-level opponent. He predicts a first-round finish by TKO or submission, as Romanov will take the fight down and end it quickly.

first round finish, submission or TKO
"i would be shocked if this left the first round i think romanov cruises here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lock picked Apr 27, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Cody agrees Romanov is a lock, noting Sherman's poor grappling and recent losses. He thinks Romanov will take him down and finish, likely by submission or ground and pound. Cody mentions the only potential issues are a DQ or Sherman landing a lucky shot, but considers those unlikely. He plans to use Romanov in DFS lineups.

Romanov inside the distance, Romanov first round (mentioned as -450 on his parlay)
"alexander romanov first round"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 28, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Daniel Levi is confident Alexandr Romanov will dominate Chase Sherman. He expects Romanov to take Sherman down and finish quickly, noting Sherman's poor head movement and susceptibility to being hit. Levi calls the line unplayable due to the heavy favorite price and advises against betting on Sherman.

"i think romano's gonna dominate him and destroy him so yeah i get people are taken aback ... the odds suck so just sit back"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lock picked Apr 28, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

The host picks Romanov with high confidence, citing his dominant wrestling and ground-and-pound. He notes Sherman was submitted by Jake Collier, and Romanov is a much better grappler. Romanov's cardio has improved, and he will take Sherman down and finish him. The only path for Sherman is a lucky knockout, but Romanov's chin is durable.

Romanov inside the distance -650, Romanov round 1 -180
"romanov romanov easy money"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lock picked Apr 27, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Paul is extremely confident Romanov wins, calling it a smash. He notes Romanov's improved physique and cardio, and that Sherman has poor grappling and was submitted by Jake Collier. Paul expects Romanov to take Sherman down and finish him, likely by TKO or submission. He mentions the only risks are a DQ or injury, but otherwise Romanov should dominate.

Romanov inside the distance (mentioned as -550 or -700), Romanov TKO (personal pick)
"romanov should smash a hundred percent"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 25, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

The Guru picks Romanov to win by first-round TKO (ground and pound). He believes Romanov will easily take Sherman down and dominate on the ground, as Sherman lacks the grappling to deal with him. The Guru thinks Romanov may want to punish Sherman for pulling out of their previous fight, so he will opt for a TKO rather than a submission. He predicts a first-round finish.

Romanov by first-round TKO (ground and pound)
"i do believe that alexander romanov is gonna go out there as i said before and get a first round submission on chase sherman... i think i'm actually going to lean more in the favor of a ground and pound …"
TKO (punches) R2 4:43 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez · Oct 09, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexandr Romanov 0 56 of 78 71% 78 of 103 5 of 7 71% 0 0 6:31
Jared Vanderaa 0 13 of 23 56% 19 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexandr Romanov 0 9 of 20 45% 10 of 21 4 of 5 80% 0 0 2:05
Jared Vanderaa 0 13 of 21 61% 16 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Alexandr Romanov 0 47 of 58 81% 68 of 82 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:26
Jared Vanderaa 0 0 of 2 0% 3 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexandr Romanov 56 of 78 71% 48 of 66 6 of 10 2 of 2 11 of 22 0 of 0 45 of 56
Jared Vanderaa 13 of 23 56% 4 of 12 2 of 3 7 of 8 10 of 19 3 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexandr Romanov 9 of 20 45% 6 of 13 1 of 5 2 of 2 9 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 13 of 21 61% 4 of 10 2 of 3 7 of 8 10 of 17 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Alexandr Romanov 47 of 58 81% 42 of 53 5 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0 45 of 56
Jared Vanderaa 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Angelo picks Alexandr Romanov but feels it's a trap at minus 400. He notes Romanov's wrestling and power but recalls his less dominant performance against Juan Espino. He bet the over 1.5 rounds at plus money and the more more on Monkey Knife Fight, expecting the fight to last past the first round and a half.

Over 1.5 rounds (1 unit at plus money); more more Monkey Knife Fight
"I did bet the over on the rounds. One and a half rounds. ... I put a full unit on the over on round. I think I got it at plus money."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 5, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Big Brady is very confident in Romanov, highlighting his incredible wrestling strength and ability to take down and finish opponents. He notes Vanderaa has 0% takedown defense and was easily taken down by Sergey Spivak. Brady believes Romanov is stronger and more dangerous on top, and predicts a second-round finish, either by submission or knockout. He sees no path to victory for Vanderaa except Romanov gassing out.

second round finish
"give me alexander romanov to win by i want to say second round finish"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Cody picks Romanov but expresses concerns about his cardio and ring IQ. He notes Romanov's athleticism and sumo background, but worries about his training situation in Moldova. He expects Romanov to take Vanderaa down and finish early, but if it goes past the first round, Vanderaa's improved striking and cardio could be a problem.

first round TKO
"romanov takes him down the first round tko's them and we go home happy"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Daniel Levi is confident Alexandr Romanov will dominate with takedowns and finish Vanderaa on the mat, likely by submission or ground and pound. He notes Vanderaa's toughness and volume but believes he lacks the grappling to compete. His only concern is Romanov's cardio if he expends too much energy early, but he still expects a finish.

submission or ground and pound finish
"i think romano is going to take this guy to sky city i think he's going to give him some frequent flyer miles and i think he's going to submit him with something"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Jacob picks Romanov but agrees it feels like a trap. He thinks Romanov should dominate but wouldn't touch the minus 400. He likes the over 1.5 rounds bet and will play it with Angelo. He notes Romanov's terrifying ground and pound but thinks Jared Vanderaa is tough enough to withstand early attacks.

Over 1.5 rounds (will play with Angelo)
"I love that one and a half. I'm going to go on it and play that as well. I think I I completely agree that even if Romanov kind of dominates, maybe takes him down, I think Jared's tough enough …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Oct 7, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

The host picks Romanov but with hesitation due to his questionable gas tank. He notes that if Romanov doesn't get an early finish, he could fade, and Vanderaa has a grappling background and good cardio. He compares Romanov to Spivak, who beat Vanderaa, but acknowledges Romanov's cardio issues. He predicts a second-round TKO for Romanov but plans to hedge with Vanderaa props.

Romanov second round TKO; Vanderaa round three +2000; Vanderaa by KO +600 (hedge)
"I will go romanov second round tko but i will hedge a little bit with that round three vandal or even that vandera ko at plus 600."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Paul picks Romanov, noting Vanderaa's lack of elite skills. He acknowledges Romanov's cardio issues and questionable performance against Espino, but believes Vanderaa is a step down in competition. He expects Romanov to get takedowns and grind out a win, though the price is steep.

"he should roll here against fandura it's a it's an easy"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 5, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

The MMA Guru picks Alexandr Romanov to win by first-round submission via forearm choke. He believes Romanov's grappling is superior to Vanderaa's, citing Vanderaa's loss to Sergey Spivak. He notes Romanov's takedown ability and finishing threat.

Romanov by first-round submission (forearm choke)
"i think he'll get the finish here... maybe go for like a first round finish for alexander romanov he's got that forearm choke"
WIN vs Juan Espino
Technical Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 1:05 · UFC on ESPN: Whittaker vs. Gastelum · Apr 17, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexandr Romanov 0 32 of 53 60% 53 of 77 2 of 4 50% 0 0 5:41
Juan Espino 0 12 of 22 54% 44 of 56 4 of 5 80% 0 0 2:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexandr Romanov 0 5 of 9 55% 14 of 18 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:18
Juan Espino 0 4 of 6 66% 20 of 22 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:28
2 Alexandr Romanov 0 27 of 44 61% 38 of 58 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:20
Juan Espino 0 6 of 13 46% 21 of 30 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:45
3 Alexandr Romanov 0 0 of 0 --- 1 of 1 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Juan Espino 0 2 of 3 66% 3 of 4 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:42
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexandr Romanov 32 of 53 60% 23 of 44 4 of 4 5 of 5 8 of 20 6 of 6 18 of 27
Juan Espino 12 of 22 54% 8 of 17 2 of 2 2 of 3 7 of 17 4 of 4 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexandr Romanov 5 of 9 55% 0 of 4 1 of 1 4 of 4 1 of 5 4 of 4 0 of 0
Juan Espino 4 of 6 66% 2 of 3 1 of 1 1 of 2 2 of 4 1 of 1 1 of 1
2 Alexandr Romanov 27 of 44 61% 23 of 40 3 of 3 1 of 1 7 of 15 2 of 2 18 of 27
Juan Espino 6 of 13 46% 5 of 12 0 of 0 1 of 1 4 of 11 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Alexandr Romanov 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Juan Espino 2 of 3 66% 1 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 15, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Juan Espino

Big Brady picks Juan Espino to win by submission, but with very low confidence. He sees the fight as a 50/50 matchup and sides with the dog due to hype driving Romanov's line. He notes that both fighters are grapplers and that Romanov is unlikely to submit Espino, a legit black belt. He questions Romanov's cardio and believes Espino may have the edge if the fight goes past the first round. He is passing on betting due to the uncertainty but picks Espino to weather the storm and possibly get a late submission.

Considered over but passed
"i'm gonna take espino to win by submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 14, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Cody is a Romanov fan and thinks he has better cardio, boxing, and youth (10 years younger). He notes Romanov's cardio looks good in deeper fights, while Espino has only fought 3 minutes in the last 3 years. He believes Romanov can stuff takedowns and win by pressure. He acknowledges Espino's BJJ but thinks Romanov's wrestling and gas tank will be the difference.

"i'm a romanov guy so i'm going to bank on romanov again"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Daniel Levi picks Alexandr Romanov, stating that he is a future top-15 heavyweight and is being undervalued. He criticizes Juan Espino's competition on The Ultimate Fighter, calling it weak. Levi believes Romanov is more well-rounded and will win the wrestling and clinch battles, possibly finishing Espino. He also notes that Espino is 40 years old and Romanov has a higher ceiling.

finish
"i'm going with ramana to to finish juan espino"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Manpreet favors Romanov, citing his youth, cardio, and wrestling pressure. He notes that Espino is 40 years old and has fought weak competition, while Romanov has shown he can grind opponents down over three rounds. He believes Romanov's explosiveness and strength will overwhelm Espino, likely leading to a TKO in the second round.

Romanov by TKO +250; Romanov in round 2 +525; over 1.5 rounds -125
"i got to go with romanov and i'm going to be going with the tko probably round two"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 14, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Juan Espino

Paul thinks Espino is a legitimate BJJ black belt with good wrestling and a complete game. He notes that Romanov has a hole in his leg kick defense but Espino doesn't throw leg kicks. He is leaning towards Espino but not confident, calling it a dog or pass fight. He mentions that Espino's age (40) and lack of recent octagon time are concerns.

"i think it's espino or pass"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Apr 11, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

The MMA Guru picks Alexandr Romanov to win by second-round TKO via ground and pound, but calls it risky. He notes Romanov is younger, undefeated, and has more localized weight for grappling. He expects Romanov to stuff takedowns and use kicks to the body and legs, then take over in the second round after Espino has an adrenaline dump. He does not see Romanov submitting Espino.

second round TKO via ground and pound
"i'm going to go with alexander romanov here but it's risky"
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Angelo picks Alexandr Romanov over Marcin Tybura. He describes Romanov as a massive, athletic wrestler with a Brock Lesnar style, while Tybura is a durable grinder with okay striking and trips. Angelo acknowledges concerns: Romanov hasn't fought top-20 opponents and was taken down four times by Juan Espino. However, he believes Romanov is too big, fast, and athletic for Tybura, and that Tybura won't get close enough to land his trips. He has moneyline bets on Romanov.

Placed moneyline bets on Romanov.
"i am still all in on romanov i think he's too big too fast and too athletic for the lumbering taebora"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 15, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Big Brady picks Alexandr Romanov but is hesitant. He notes that Romanov struggled with cardio against Juan Espino, but looked in incredible shape against Chase Sherman. Tybura is a tough grappler with good takedown defense and cardio. Brady expects Romanov to get takedowns and win the first two rounds, but concerns about the third round remain. He predicts Romanov wins by decision, though Tybura could have success late if Romanov slows down.

Romanov by decision
"i'll take uh alexander romanov i think his cardio does hold up and i do think he wins the decision but i think ty burr is going to have some success late if romanov does slow down"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Cody picks Romanov, noting his wrestling and athleticism. He mentions Romanov's training at Tiger Muay Thai and his improved cardio. He thinks Tybura is trending downward and Romanov should win, but he won't put him at the top of his parlay due to heavyweight volatility.

"i still think the the big the big roman era sorry the big moldovan fighter gets the job done and once the night's done"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Daniel Levi picks Alexandr Romanov to win, though he acknowledges there is no value on the line at -360. He believes Romanov is a much better athlete and more explosive than Tybura, and that Romanov will get takedowns and grind out a win. He notes that Romanov looked significantly leaner after the Juan Espino fight and seems to be taking his career more seriously. Levi respects Tybura's experience and methodical striking but thinks Romanov's wrestling will be the difference.

Says he is not in a rush to play the line because there's no value, but he thinks Romanov wins at least two rounds if not a finish. Mentions that Tybura has been taken down before (by Derrick Lewis, etc.).
"I'm going to remind off to grind this one up and I think taboro will be back for sure"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Aug 18, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Romanov should win via grappling and top pressure, likely finishing within two rounds. However, Tybura is live as a dog with good BJJ and takedown defense. The host compares this to the David Onama fight last week, warning against laying heavy chalk on finish-reliant fighters. He is not betting this fight due to the risk.

Mentions Romanov inside the distance as likely, but no bet placed.
"I just can't get to the betting window to bet that marching taiboro side i really can't do it."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Paul picks Romanov, citing his wrestling advantage and improved striking. He notes Romanov's cardio concerns but thinks he can get the job done. He likes Romanov over 2.5 takedowns on Prize Picks.

over 2.5 takedowns on Prize Picks
"romanov over two and a half takedowns on prize picks before we get out of there um i mean that's a good lie romanov three he had three against sherman and finished them in the first round five against vander"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 20, 2022 (fight day)
Alexandr Romanov

The Guru predicts Alexandr Romanov wins by first-round TKO. He describes Romanov slamming lead leg kicks and inside leg kicks, then backing Tybura against the cage and landing a clean right overhand that rocks him. He sees Romanov finishing with ground and pound after a takedown.

TKO in round 1
"alexander romanov gets this one done by first round tko"