UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sakai

Big Brady picks Sakai mainly as a fade on Overeem's chin, noting Overeem has 13 knockout losses. He acknowledges Sakai is not a huge power puncher but believes he can catch Overeem. He mentions Overeem might have better cardio and could take Sakai down, but Sakai has 83% takedown defense. He suggests betting Sakai inside the distance.

Daniel Levi picks Augusto Sakai to upset Alistair Overeem. He notes Sakai's underrated chin, having taken full KO blows from Arlovski without being hurt, and his methodical Muay Thai striking. Levi is concerned about Overeem's chin and tendency to admire his work, and believes Sakai will eventually catch Overeem, predicting a third-round knockout. He also mentions Sakai's competitive running background as a plus for cardio.

The host picks Overeem to win by third or fourth round TKO. He believes Overeem is better everywhere, with improved grappling and cardio since joining Team Elevation. He expects Overeem to wear on Sakai against the cage, take him down, and pound him out. He notes Overeem's chin is a concern but thinks he can survive Sakai's early power.

The MMA Guru picks Alistair Overeem, citing Sakai's lack of impressive wins and a controversial split decision over Andrei Arlovski that he considers a robbery. He believes Overeem's experience and ability to survive early storms will be key, and predicts a second or third round TKO via ground and pound. He notes Overeem's unappealing ground and pound style but expects it to be effective.

Big Brady is confident in Menifield, citing his takedown defense (85%) and power. He believes Menifield has worked on his cardio after gassing against Devin Clark and looks in great shape. He thinks OSP is hittable, low volume, and has a questionable chin. He predicts a first-round knockout but says Menifield is live even if it goes past the first round.

Daniel Levi sticks with Ovince Saint Preux despite concerns about a second weight cut in two weeks and a COVID scare. He believes OSP is a much better fighter than Devin Clark, who Menifield lost to, and that OSP's wrestling for MMA is superior. However, he is not confident and expects a close fight that could go three rounds, noting Menifield's power and OSP's tendency to slow down.

The host picks OSP as a +115 underdog, expecting him to survive the first round and then take over. He notes OSP's experience, durability, and submission threat, while Menifield has cardio issues and is one-dimensional. He predicts a second or third round stoppage via ground and pound or submission.

The MMA Guru picks Ovince Saint Preux, arguing that OSP has shown durability and avoids getting KO'd despite a perceived weak chin. He believes Menifield's power is overrated and that OSP will take the fight to the ground and secure a submission (von Flue choke) in the first or second round. He references OSP's recent wins over Michal Oleksiejczuk and Tyson Pedro.

Big Brady picks Pereira despite past inconsistency, noting he looked composed against Diego Sanchez. He thinks Pereira is more durable and has shown progression. He is not impressed with Imadaev. However, he warns this is a stay-away fight for betting because Pereira cannot be trusted.

Daniel Levi picks Zelim Imadaev by first-round knockout. He believes Imadaev has better hands and forward pressure, and that Pereira is unreliable despite his athleticism. Levi notes that Imadaev showed improvement in his last fight before getting knocked out, and that Pereira's cardio and discipline are questionable. He expects Imadaev to walk Pereira down and finish him early.

The host is very uncertain but leans toward Imadaev by second-round TKO. He thinks Imadaev may have a slight cardio advantage and more variety in his MMA game. He calls the fight 'complete chaos' and advises caution.

The MMA Guru picks Michel Pereira, noting that Zelim Imadaev is coming off a KO loss and has a weak resume outside the UFC. He praises Pereira's patience shown in the Diego Sanchez fight and believes he will KO Imadaev in the first round. He mentions the odds have closed to evens, making the pick more palatable.

Big Brady picks Muniz because he believes Muniz's high-level BJJ will catch Fabiński on the ground. He notes Fabiński will likely get takedowns but Muniz has good sweeps and submissions. He also gives Muniz the striking advantage. He predicts a second-round submission.

Daniel Levi picks André Muniz by first-round submission. He highlights Muniz's legitimate black belt and ability to attack off his back with real arm bars and triangles. Levi believes Fabiński will charge in and give Muniz every opportunity to submit him, and that Muniz is also better standing. He notes that Fabiński's only path to victory is to avoid submissions and lay on a gassed opponent, but expects Muniz to finish early.

The host is torn but leans toward Fabiński by decision. He acknowledges Muniz's jiu-jitsu threat but thinks Fabiński's grinding style and top pressure will wear on Muniz in later rounds. He notes Muniz's best chance is a first-round submission, but otherwise Fabiński should control the fight.

The MMA Guru picks Bartosz Fabiński, impressed by his dominant win over Darren Stewart. He believes Fabiński will take Muniz down and grind out a unanimous decision, citing Muniz's lack of high-quality opponents. He compares Fabiński's style to a ground-and-pound version of Rakhmonov.

Big Brady picks Kelleher, citing his durability (only one KO loss in 32 fights) and experience. He thinks Kelleher can take a takedown and submit Natividad. He notes Natividad is a brawler who gets hit a lot and has been KO'd in 9 seconds before. He predicts a second-round submission.

Daniel Levi picks Brian Kelleher by guillotine finish. He notes that Kelleher is experienced and tends to beat lower-level opponents, but warns that Kelleher is unreliable as a big favorite. He acknowledges that newcomer Kevin Natividad has power and could upset if Kelleher underestimates him, but ultimately sides with Kelleher's experience.

The host picks Kelleher to win by first-round KO. He cites Kelleher's veteran experience, solid chin, and takedown defense. He notes Natividad's only loss was a 9-second KO and expects Kelleher to land a knockout punch early.

The MMA Guru picks Brian Kelleher, noting that his opponent Kevin Natividad (originally Ray Rodriguez was scheduled but changed) has a padded record with weak competition. He believes Kelleher's experience against top fighters will prevail, and expects a second-round submission. He mentions Kelleher's losses to high-level opponents and his ability to survive early pressure.

Big Brady picks Araújo, citing her striking advantage (4.51 sig strikes/min vs 2.3) and 100% takedown defense. He is concerned about her cardio slowing down, which could allow De La Rosa to take over late. He predicts a decision win for Araújo.

Daniel Levi leans with Viviane Araújo, citing her intensity, speed, and power. He notes that Araújo is more well-rounded and hits harder, but has cardio concerns and a chinny history. He believes if Araújo doesn't get choked out or give up her back, she will win. He acknowledges Montana De La Rosa's improvements and grappling, but feels Araújo's early offense will be decisive.

The host likes De La Rosa as a +150 underdog, citing her wrestling base, top pressure, and improving cardio. He questions Araújo's gas tank and ground game, noting she was controlled by Alexis Davis on the ground. He expects De La Rosa to mix in takedowns and win a decision.

The MMA Guru picks Viviane Araújo, stating she is somewhat decent and has lost to better competition (Jessica Eye) compared to Montana De La Rosa's losses. He believes Araújo's training camp and overall skills will lead to a third-round finish by submission or TKO. He dismisses De La Rosa's recent win over Mara Romero Borella as not impressive.

Big Brady picks Azure, citing his significant striking advantage (4.71 sig strikes/min vs 1.63) and takedown defense. He thinks Smith will try to grind but will gas out, allowing Azure to get a late knockout. He acknowledges Azure's cardio looked poor against Kelleher but gives him the benefit of the doubt.

Daniel Levi picks Cole Smith as an underdog, seeing value at +185. He believes Smith can backpack Hunter Azure for rounds and win a decision, similar to his style. Levi thinks Azure is overrated due to past injuries and being dropped by lesser competition, and that Smith's back-taking ability is a real threat. He acknowledges Smith's sketchy stand-up but trusts his grappling to secure the upset.

The host believes Cole Smith is being undervalued as a +185 underdog. He notes Smith's black belt in jiu-jitsu, gangly frame for the division, and effective leg kicks. He thinks Azure is overrated after his loss to Kelleher and that Smith can grind out a decision.

The MMA Guru picks Hunter Azure despite concerns about a quick turnaround after a brutal KO loss to Brian Kelleher. He believes Cole Smith lacks the KO power to finish Azure early and that Azure's reach and grappling will be too much. He notes Azure's ability to grind out opponents and doubts Smith can win a decision.