UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sakai · Sep 05, 2020 · Heavyweight · Completed
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sakai Next Fight
Age 46
Height 6' 4"
Reach 80.0"
Weight 265 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 35
Height 6' 3"
Reach 77.0"
Weight 265 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Alistair Overeem
3.67 SLpM
64.0% Str. Acc.
2.44 SApM
57.0% Str. Def.
1.42 TD Avg
55.0% TD Acc.
73.0% TD Def.
0.8 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Augusto Sakai
4.6 SLpM
49.0% Str. Acc.
3.83 SApM
48.0% Str. Def.
0.23 TD Avg
40.0% TD Acc.
56.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Alistair Overeem - Fight History
TKO (punches) R2 2:06 · UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov · Feb 06, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexander Volkov 0 10 of 20 50% 10 of 20 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Alistair Overeem 1 54 of 88 61% 54 of 88 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexander Volkov 0 8 of 14 57% 8 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alistair Overeem 0 33 of 53 62% 33 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
2 Alexander Volkov 0 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Alistair Overeem 1 21 of 35 60% 21 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexander Volkov 10 of 20 50% 3 of 13 2 of 2 5 of 5 10 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alistair Overeem 54 of 88 61% 47 of 81 3 of 3 4 of 4 40 of 65 11 of 18 3 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexander Volkov 8 of 14 57% 3 of 9 2 of 2 3 of 3 8 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alistair Overeem 33 of 53 62% 26 of 46 3 of 3 4 of 4 22 of 34 8 of 14 3 of 5
2 Alexander Volkov 2 of 6 33% 0 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alistair Overeem 21 of 35 60% 21 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0 18 of 31 3 of 4 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Alistair Overeem vs. Alexander Volkov

Round 1
Five hundred nineteen and one-half pounds, not counting referee Jason Herzog, are in the cage now for our headliner. The two heavyweight strikers in Overeem (47-18, 1 NC; 12-7 UFC) and Volkov (32-8, 6-2 UFC) will determine who is perhaps a win away for a title shot, while the other falls to the middle of the pack with their hopes dashed. The big men respectfully touch gloves, and the cage door seals behind them as we begin. Volkov lands a huge leg kick, and Overeem backs off to shell up against the fence. Volkov lands a few strikes but does not fall into a trap of Overeem letting loose a counter strike. The Russian pulls back at the last second of a big kick to draw a reaction out of his opponent, and his strikes are already making Overeem flinch. Volkov lands a front kick down the middle, and Overeem tries to catch it and lets it go. Volkov chops at the calf with a kick, and he does not follow it and instead eats a huge right hand from “The Demolition Man.” Overeem loads up with another, and Volkov eats it like borscht and retreats against the cage wall. Volkov stalks down his opponent, but he takes a right hand and clinches up. Volkov separates, and he absorbs a left hand and fights off a takedown attempt. Volkov fires off a high kick that is blocked, and a single jab is pawed away without issue. Overeem ducks forward to land a big uppercut, and he continues along with a thudding body kick. Overeem backs off to land a kick to the thigh, and Volkov counters him with a left hand that puts Overeem down. Overeem might not be hurt and he may have slipped, but Volkov chases after him to hammer him with punches. Not sensing a finish, Volkov lets him back up and reaches out with his left jab. Volkov lands a couple punches and a knee up the middle, and he backs off to land a heavy kick to the body. Overeem lunges forward with a left hand, and Volkov picks at him with a low kick and a jab. Volkov chambers a right hand but does not throw it, and Overeem swings and misses wildly with a looping left. Volkov assaults Overeem with a barrage of punches, and Overeem covers up and takes some damage as his face is marked up. The round ends with Overeem aiming a punch to the body.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Volkov

Round 2
The heavyweights touch gloves to stat off the second round, and Overeem rushes forward shoulder first and eats a right hand. Overeem lets loose a head kick that gets blocked, and Volkov triples up on his left hand to sting Overeem. A solid one-two snaps Overeem’s head back, and Overeem ducks down to wing a left hook but it glances off the guard. Overeem crashes in to tie the Russian up, but he pushes Volkov away and gets jabbed. Volkov splits the guard with a few punches, and Overeem is stalking him down and pushes him back into the cage wall. “Drago” connects with a heavy one-two, and Overeem is in the danger zone. Overeem turns away as he takes another punch, and Volkov rips into him with punches in bunches. Volkov measures his shots and does not punch himself out, and Herzog cautions Overeem to defend himself. Overeem attacks a takedown but it is easily stuffed.
Volkov measures his strikes and lands punches that make Overeem’s legs wobble. “Drago” fires off a deadly one-two, and a bloodied Overeem stumbles to the canvas and topples over. Herzog has seen enough, and Volkov walks off knowing his work tonight is done.
We have a legitimate, new heavyweight contender on the rise, as Volkov notched a very impressive win against a devastatingly effective striker with a penchant for nasty finishes. Volkov goes down to join Overeem on his knees to thank him for the fight, showing respect for the legendary Dutchman in victory. In his post-fight interview, an eerily calm Volkov says it is his time, and that he is not done improving. With this fight card in the books, we return next week with a pay-per-view offering putting the welterweight title on the line.

The Official Result
Alexander Volkov def. Alistair Overeem R2 2:06 via TKO (Punches)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Big Brady picks Alexander Volkov, emphasizing his cardio, output, and takedown defense. He notes that Overeem's chin is completely shot and that he has been knocked out 14 times. He expects Volkov to be the 15th to knock him out, likely in the later rounds. He also suggests looking at the over 1.5 rounds prop.

method: KO, round: 4, prop: over 1.5 rounds
"I'm gonna go with Volkov here to get a knockout, I'm gonna say he's gonna be the 15th person to knock out Alistair Overeem... give me like a fourth round knockout."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Daniel Levi picks Alexander Volkov, citing his improved power at 265 pounds and his ability to sit down on punches. He notes Volkov's 40 pro fights and prime condition, and expects him to outpoint and eventually knock out Overeem. He respects Overeem but believes Volkov's size and power will be decisive.

"i think it's a fun competitive striking match until volkov lands on the chin of overeem"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Alistair Overeem

Overeem has shown evolution in his game since joining Team Elevation, landing 7 takedowns in his last 5 fights compared to only 3 in his first 13 UFC fights. He has accrued almost 18 minutes of control time in his last 3 fights, showing he can grind out wins. Volkov's takedown defense is sketchy (66% according to UFC stats) and he was taken down 14 times by Curtis Blaydes. Overeem's chin has held up well recently, and Volkov is not a one-punch knockout artist. Overeem's clinch work, knees, and top pressure should be key. I expect Overeem to slow the fight down, take Volkov down, and control him against the cage, winning a decision.

Overeem by decision; Overeem has at least a 40-45% chance to win, so plus money is value
"i like over him here i think he could kind of just slow this fight down i like the improvements that we've been seeing from him since he changed camps"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2021 (7 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

The MMA Guru picks Alexander Volkov, praising his patience, versatility, and takedown defense shown against Curtis Blaydes. He notes Overeem's tendency to shell up and get hit, and believes Volkov's front kicks and body work will be key. He predicts a second-round TKO via body shots, similar to Volkov's win over Walt Harris.

second round TKO by body shots
"i'm going with alexander volkov second round tko to the body shots"
WIN vs Augusto Sakai
TKO (elbows and punches) R5 0:26 · UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sakai · Sep 05, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alistair Overeem 0 92 of 114 80% 106 of 131 3 of 3 100% 0 0 5:29
Augusto Sakai 0 99 of 173 57% 120 of 196 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alistair Overeem 0 11 of 18 61% 12 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Augusto Sakai 0 22 of 36 61% 24 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:45
2 Alistair Overeem 0 13 of 16 81% 14 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:12
Augusto Sakai 0 24 of 40 60% 28 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:58
3 Alistair Overeem 0 23 of 27 85% 26 of 31 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:44
Augusto Sakai 0 34 of 54 62% 48 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
4 Alistair Overeem 0 40 of 48 83% 49 of 59 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:18
Augusto Sakai 0 19 of 43 44% 20 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
5 Alistair Overeem 0 5 of 5 100% 5 of 5 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:15
Augusto Sakai 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alistair Overeem 92 of 114 80% 53 of 73 30 of 31 9 of 10 28 of 43 16 of 16 48 of 55
Augusto Sakai 99 of 173 57% 66 of 130 25 of 34 8 of 9 62 of 127 35 of 43 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alistair Overeem 11 of 18 61% 2 of 9 6 of 6 3 of 3 6 of 13 5 of 5 0 of 0
Augusto Sakai 22 of 36 61% 13 of 23 8 of 12 1 of 1 14 of 27 8 of 9 0 of 0
2 Alistair Overeem 13 of 16 81% 5 of 7 7 of 7 1 of 2 4 of 7 9 of 9 0 of 0
Augusto Sakai 24 of 40 60% 12 of 24 11 of 15 1 of 1 10 of 22 14 of 18 0 of 0
3 Alistair Overeem 23 of 27 85% 10 of 14 9 of 9 4 of 4 11 of 14 2 of 2 10 of 11
Augusto Sakai 34 of 54 62% 27 of 47 4 of 4 3 of 3 21 of 37 11 of 14 2 of 3
4 Alistair Overeem 40 of 48 83% 31 of 38 8 of 9 1 of 1 7 of 9 0 of 0 33 of 39
Augusto Sakai 19 of 43 44% 14 of 36 2 of 3 3 of 4 17 of 41 2 of 2 0 of 0
5 Alistair Overeem 5 of 5 100% 5 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 5
Augusto Sakai 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Sep 2, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Augusto Sakai

Big Brady picks Sakai mainly as a fade on Overeem's chin, noting Overeem has 13 knockout losses. He acknowledges Sakai is not a huge power puncher but believes he can catch Overeem. He mentions Overeem might have better cardio and could take Sakai down, but Sakai has 83% takedown defense. He suggests betting Sakai inside the distance.

Sakai inside the distance
"i'm gonna go with sakai it's basically a fade on overeem's chin which is not an awful look at this point in his career"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Augusto Sakai

Daniel Levi picks Augusto Sakai to upset Alistair Overeem. He notes Sakai's underrated chin, having taken full KO blows from Arlovski without being hurt, and his methodical Muay Thai striking. Levi is concerned about Overeem's chin and tendency to admire his work, and believes Sakai will eventually catch Overeem, predicting a third-round knockout. He also mentions Sakai's competitive running background as a plus for cardio.

Sakai by KO in round 3
"i feel like sakai's got a very underrated chin man i haven't really seen him you know stumble get hurt drive none of that man so ... i feel like he's gonna come out here and knock alistair out i'ma …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Alistair Overeem

The host picks Overeem to win by third or fourth round TKO. He believes Overeem is better everywhere, with improved grappling and cardio since joining Team Elevation. He expects Overeem to wear on Sakai against the cage, take him down, and pound him out. He notes Overeem's chin is a concern but thinks he can survive Sakai's early power.

"i will take over him to win this fight probably by third or fourth round stoppage"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Alistair Overeem

The MMA Guru picks Alistair Overeem, citing Sakai's lack of impressive wins and a controversial split decision over Andrei Arlovski that he considers a robbery. He believes Overeem's experience and ability to survive early storms will be key, and predicts a second or third round TKO via ground and pound. He notes Overeem's unappealing ground and pound style but expects it to be effective.

second or third round ground and pound tko
"i think overeem is actually gonna get a big ko here um maybe not a ko actually yeah no ko i think he takes down augusto sakai after rocking him gets the submission or gets a tko via crown and …"
WIN vs Walt Harris
TKO (punches) R2 3:00 · UFC on ESPN: Overeem vs. Harris · May 16, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alistair Overeem 1 68 of 85 80% 97 of 115 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:22
Walt Harris 1 25 of 48 52% 25 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alistair Overeem 0 27 of 33 81% 48 of 55 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:56
Walt Harris 1 24 of 42 57% 24 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:47
2 Alistair Overeem 1 41 of 52 78% 49 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:26
Walt Harris 0 1 of 6 16% 1 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alistair Overeem 68 of 85 80% 58 of 75 8 of 8 2 of 2 7 of 10 1 of 1 60 of 74
Walt Harris 25 of 48 52% 19 of 41 6 of 7 0 of 0 6 of 19 1 of 3 18 of 26
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alistair Overeem 27 of 33 81% 21 of 27 5 of 5 1 of 1 3 of 4 1 of 1 23 of 28
Walt Harris 24 of 42 57% 18 of 36 6 of 6 0 of 0 5 of 13 1 of 3 18 of 26
2 Alistair Overeem 41 of 52 78% 37 of 48 3 of 3 1 of 1 4 of 6 0 of 0 37 of 46
Walt Harris 1 of 6 16% 1 of 5 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 15, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Walt Harris

Big Brady picks Walt Harris by first-round knockout, citing Overeem's diminished chin and Harris' power. He notes that Overeem is likely the better fighter overall but cannot be trusted due to his chin, which has been knocked out 13 times. He believes Harris will land one shot and finish the fight. He acknowledges that Overeem could win if he takes Harris down, but doubts his wrestling is good enough. He mentions the emotional motivation for Harris after his daughter's passing.

first-round knockout, fight ends inside distance -425, emotional motivation
"I'm gonna go with Walt Harris here... I think it takes one shot to knockout over him and I think Walt Harris has that shot one of the hardest hitters in the heavyweight division so I like Walt Harris to …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 16, 2020 (fight day)
Walt Harris

Daniel Levi picks Walt Harris via vicious knockout. He believes Harris has turned a corner, putting things together, and has the proper technique and power to put away Overeem. He notes that Overeem is the more skilled fighter but has a small margin for error and is in denial about his recent KO loss. Levi emphasizes that Harris should stay composed and not fight too emotionally.

vicious knockout
"I got Walt Harris via vicious knockout I think he is gonna have that moment I think he will touch the chin of Overeem"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked May 14, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Alistair Overeem

The host is torn but ultimately picks Overeem, citing his experience and ability to adjust after the Rozenstruik fight. He believes Overeem will be elusive, avoid Harris's early power, and take the fight to the ground for a TKO. He admits he's rooting for Harris due to his personal story but thinks Overeem's skills and tools will prevail.

Overeem by TKO in the third round
"I think I'm gonna go of Alistair Overeem win him by a second-round TKO I think he's gonna ground and pound Walt Harris"
KO (punch) R5 4:56 · UFC on ESPN: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik · Dec 07, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 74 of 105 70% 101 of 135 2 of 10 20% 0 0 8:19
Alistair Overeem 1 89 of 209 42% 109 of 229 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 13 of 15 86% 27 of 30 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:14
Alistair Overeem 0 5 of 13 38% 8 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 14 of 20 70% 17 of 24 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:06
Alistair Overeem 0 19 of 35 54% 28 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
3 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 18 of 25 72% 27 of 35 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:30
Alistair Overeem 0 14 of 33 42% 22 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 18 of 28 64% 18 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Alistair Overeem 0 30 of 73 41% 30 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 11 of 17 64% 12 of 18 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:29
Alistair Overeem 1 21 of 55 38% 21 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 74 of 105 70% 48 of 76 12 of 13 14 of 16 46 of 76 9 of 9 19 of 20
Alistair Overeem 89 of 209 42% 57 of 169 16 of 20 16 of 20 68 of 180 19 of 27 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 13 of 15 86% 11 of 13 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 4 1 of 1 10 of 10
Alistair Overeem 5 of 13 38% 1 of 8 0 of 1 4 of 4 5 of 12 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 14 of 20 70% 4 of 10 8 of 8 2 of 2 7 of 13 7 of 7 0 of 0
Alistair Overeem 19 of 35 54% 9 of 23 7 of 9 3 of 3 11 of 25 8 of 10 0 of 0
3 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 18 of 25 72% 14 of 19 3 of 4 1 of 2 8 of 14 1 of 1 9 of 10
Alistair Overeem 14 of 33 42% 7 of 26 4 of 4 3 of 3 8 of 26 4 of 5 2 of 2
4 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 18 of 28 64% 13 of 22 0 of 0 5 of 6 18 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alistair Overeem 30 of 73 41% 23 of 63 4 of 5 3 of 5 25 of 64 5 of 9 0 of 0
5 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 11 of 17 64% 6 of 12 0 of 0 5 of 5 11 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alistair Overeem 21 of 55 38% 17 of 49 1 of 1 3 of 5 19 of 53 2 of 2 0 of 0
TKO (knees and punches) R1 4:45 · UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik · Apr 20, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alistair Overeem 1 29 of 33 87% 31 of 35 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:10
Aleksei Oleinik 0 38 of 58 65% 78 of 101 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alistair Overeem 1 29 of 33 87% 31 of 35 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:10
Aleksei Oleinik 0 38 of 58 65% 78 of 101 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:22
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alistair Overeem 29 of 33 87% 23 of 27 6 of 6 0 of 0 5 of 8 12 of 13 12 of 12
Aleksei Oleinik 38 of 58 65% 15 of 34 23 of 24 0 of 0 12 of 26 26 of 32 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alistair Overeem 29 of 33 87% 23 of 27 6 of 6 0 of 0 5 of 8 12 of 13 12 of 12
Aleksei Oleinik 38 of 58 65% 15 of 34 23 of 24 0 of 0 12 of 26 26 of 32 0 of 0
TKO (punches) R1 4:21 · UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ngannou 2 · Nov 24, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alistair Overeem 0 22 of 26 84% 26 of 31 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:57
Sergei Pavlovich 0 13 of 32 40% 18 of 37 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alistair Overeem 0 22 of 26 84% 26 of 31 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:57
Sergei Pavlovich 0 13 of 32 40% 18 of 37 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:12
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alistair Overeem 22 of 26 84% 13 of 16 8 of 9 1 of 1 3 of 5 7 of 7 12 of 14
Sergei Pavlovich 13 of 32 40% 9 of 25 3 of 6 1 of 1 8 of 22 5 of 10 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alistair Overeem 22 of 26 84% 13 of 16 8 of 9 1 of 1 3 of 5 7 of 7 12 of 14
Sergei Pavlovich 13 of 32 40% 9 of 25 3 of 6 1 of 1 8 of 22 5 of 10 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Alistair Overeem vs. Sergei Pavlovich

Round 1
Overeem crouches low with a high guard as he circles Pavlovich, feinting and testing the reactions of the Russian newcomer. Pavlovich clips “The ‘Reem” with a right hand, then shoves him away when Overeem attempts to tie up. An uppercut leaves Overeem covering up momentarily, but he recovers and drives forward to push Pavlovich against the wall. Pavlovich spins to the outside position in the clinch and walks Overeem out toward the middle, then the Dutchman reclaims control and marches him back to the fence. Pavlovich drops levels to try a double-leg, and now Overeem abandons the clinch to step back to the center. Overeem swings a big right hand at Pavlovich, tries to grab the Russian in the Thai clinch and winds up tossing him to the ground. Overeem kneels down in Pavlovich’s open guard, then stands over him with 60 seconds on the clock. Suddenly, Overeem turns up the volume on his right hands, smashing Pavlovich’s face with thunderous hammerfists. Pavlovich eats a couple punches before going fetal and turning away from Overeem. The body language is not good, and Overeem continues to pour on the right hands, prompting referee John Sharp to step in for the stoppage.

The Result
Alistair Overeem def. Sergey Pavlovich via TKO (Punches) R1 4:21
LOSS vs Curtis Blaydes
TKO (elbows) R3 2:56 · UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2 · Jun 09, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Curtis Blaydes 0 7 of 12 58% 24 of 31 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:00
Alistair Overeem 0 37 of 53 69% 62 of 85 4 of 4 100% 0 0 7:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Curtis Blaydes 0 1 of 3 33% 10 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alistair Overeem 0 1 of 5 20% 9 of 15 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:19
2 Curtis Blaydes 0 4 of 5 80% 11 of 12 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:00
Alistair Overeem 0 13 of 20 65% 25 of 36 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:31
3 Curtis Blaydes 0 2 of 4 50% 3 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alistair Overeem 0 23 of 28 82% 28 of 34 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:57
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Curtis Blaydes 7 of 12 58% 3 of 8 4 of 4 0 of 0 6 of 10 0 of 0 1 of 2
Alistair Overeem 37 of 53 69% 32 of 48 5 of 5 0 of 0 3 of 16 12 of 14 22 of 23
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Curtis Blaydes 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2
Alistair Overeem 1 of 5 20% 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Curtis Blaydes 4 of 5 80% 2 of 3 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alistair Overeem 13 of 20 65% 10 of 17 3 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 6 2 of 3 11 of 11
3 Curtis Blaydes 2 of 4 50% 0 of 2 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alistair Overeem 23 of 28 82% 21 of 26 2 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 6 10 of 11 10 of 11
LOSS vs Francis Ngannou
KO (punch) R1 1:42 · UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2 · Dec 02, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Francis Ngannou 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Alistair Overeem 1 6 of 14 42% 11 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Francis Ngannou 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Alistair Overeem 1 6 of 14 42% 11 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Francis Ngannou 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alistair Overeem 6 of 14 42% 4 of 12 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 10 3 of 3 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Francis Ngannou 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alistair Overeem 6 of 14 42% 4 of 12 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 10 3 of 3 1 of 1
Augusto Sakai - Fight History
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen · Feb 25, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Augusto Sakai 0 53 of 95 55% 107 of 173 1 of 2 50% 0 0 8:51
Don'Tale Mayes 0 29 of 62 46% 77 of 121 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:46
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Augusto Sakai 0 19 of 38 50% 31 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:58
Don'Tale Mayes 0 13 of 20 65% 29 of 38 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:53
2 Augusto Sakai 0 16 of 27 59% 46 of 64 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:52
Don'Tale Mayes 0 4 of 15 26% 31 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:06
3 Augusto Sakai 0 18 of 30 60% 30 of 52 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:01
Don'Tale Mayes 0 12 of 27 44% 17 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:47
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Augusto Sakai 53 of 95 55% 27 of 65 18 of 22 8 of 8 21 of 49 30 of 42 2 of 4
Don'Tale Mayes 29 of 62 46% 15 of 46 10 of 12 4 of 4 24 of 56 5 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Augusto Sakai 19 of 38 50% 10 of 28 4 of 5 5 of 5 5 of 14 14 of 24 0 of 0
Don'Tale Mayes 13 of 20 65% 4 of 11 5 of 5 4 of 4 11 of 18 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Augusto Sakai 16 of 27 59% 6 of 16 7 of 8 3 of 3 10 of 20 6 of 7 0 of 0
Don'Tale Mayes 4 of 15 26% 2 of 13 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 14 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Augusto Sakai 18 of 30 60% 11 of 21 7 of 9 0 of 0 6 of 15 10 of 11 2 of 4
Don'Tale Mayes 12 of 27 44% 9 of 22 3 of 5 0 of 0 9 of 24 3 of 3 0 of 0
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Feb 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Augusto Sakai

Connor picks Sakai, believing he can edge out a win by slowing the fight down with clinch work and using his durability. He notes that Mayes' inability to hit the same spot repeatedly makes it unlikely he'll knock Sakai out, and Sakai will do just enough work to pull out a decision. Connor acknowledges it's a close fight and that Sakai's confidence may be shaken, but he trusts Sakai's meat-and-potatoes approach over Mayes' chaos.

Sakai opened +125, now -137. Mayes opened -145, now +112. Connor says he wouldn't bet on any props.
"I'll go with Sakai for this this to me feels like a fight that he can win it might be a fight he edges like yeah just barely guts out and you're like wow that didn't actually make me feel …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Feb 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Don'Tale Mayes

Zane picks Mayes despite his lack of structure, because Sakai's confidence has taken a hit after four straight finishes. He notes that Mayes is athletic, durable, and willing to try takedowns, and Sakai is not good on the ground. However, Zane admits he has no good reason to pick Mayes and calls it a coin flip, but he feels Sakai is not feeling himself lately.

Mayes via TKO was +200. Zane says he wouldn't bet on any props due to unpredictability.
"I don't have a good reason to pick maze but I just I'm just not feeling I don't think Spivak is feeling himself lately okay so sorry so I guess I'll take maze even though like he's such a mess"
LOSS vs Serghei Spivac
TKO (punches) R2 3:42 · UFC on ESPN: Santos vs. Hill · Aug 06, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Serghei Spivac 0 8 of 23 34% 14 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Augusto Sakai 0 33 of 49 67% 86 of 119 6 of 8 75% 1 0 6:37
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Serghei Spivac 0 7 of 11 63% 12 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Augusto Sakai 0 10 of 13 76% 36 of 43 4 of 5 80% 1 0 4:09
2 Serghei Spivac 0 1 of 12 8% 2 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Augusto Sakai 0 23 of 36 63% 50 of 76 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:28
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Serghei Spivac 8 of 23 34% 1 of 14 6 of 8 1 of 1 2 of 17 6 of 6 0 of 0
Augusto Sakai 33 of 49 67% 33 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0 9 of 15 0 of 0 24 of 34
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Serghei Spivac 7 of 11 63% 1 of 5 5 of 5 1 of 1 1 of 5 6 of 6 0 of 0
Augusto Sakai 10 of 13 76% 10 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 6 0 of 0 7 of 7
2 Serghei Spivac 1 of 12 8% 0 of 9 1 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Augusto Sakai 23 of 36 63% 23 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0 6 of 9 0 of 0 17 of 27
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 31, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Angelo picks Serghei Spivac, expecting him to use a cage-pressing and takedown-heavy game plan similar to his win over Tai Tuivasa. He notes Sakai's takedown defense is solid but has been exploited by Alistair Overeem, and believes Spivac can get takedowns and potentially stop Sakai, who has no movement off his back. He plans to bet on Spivac's moneyline.

I'm probably gonna throw a money line bet on sergey speak back in this fight
"I see spivak getting takedowns and will win with a potential stoppage because sakai off his back has no movement and he just takes whatever you give him"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 2, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Big Brady picks Serghei Spivac, citing his strong wrestling and ground game. He notes that Augusto Sakai is on a three-fight losing streak, all by finish, and has poor defense off his back. Spivac has 60% takedown accuracy and dangerous ground-and-pound and submissions. Brady predicts a second-round finish by TKO or submission, though he acknowledges Sakai's power and the possibility of a knockout if Spivac chooses to strike.

second round finish prediction (TKO or submission)
"i'll go speed back to win and buy like a second round like a second round tk or submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Cody picks Spivac, citing his improvements and youth. He notes that Spivac will likely take Sakai down and maul him, as Sakai has shown poor takedown defense and cardio issues. Cody mentions that Sakai has become gun-shy since the Overeem loss and doesn't let his hands go. He believes Spivac's grappling will be the difference.

Spivac over 1.5 takedowns on PrizePicks
"My gut instinct is Spivac is going to eventually take him down... put a mauling on him... gotta go with Sergey Spivak."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Aug 3, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Daniel Levi picks Spivac but with low confidence, calling it a 'dog or pass' situation. He notes Sakai has been knocked out in his last two fights but Spivac lacks one-punch power, so Sakai could be competitive if his chin holds. Levi thinks Spivac's path to victory is via takedowns and ground control, but he's not confident enough to bet the -250 line.

"I see it as a dog or pass situation I guess pure pick I'll go Spivac just because the momentum's on his side"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 3, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Augusto Sakai

Paul picks Sakai as a dog, noting that Sakai has power and a striking advantage. He mentions that Spivac has been knocked out before and that Sakai can crack. Paul is waiting for weigh-ins to see if Sakai has improved his conditioning. He sees a path for Sakai by knockout, especially if he can keep the fight standing.

Sakai by knockout (looking for +500 or better); Sakai inside the distance at +350
"Sakai will be my pick... Sakai by knockout... I see Sakai inside the distance at plus 350."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

The MMA Guru picks Serghei Spivac by decision 29-28. He calls Augusto Sakai a 'fat slob' who is too timid and has been KO'd three times in a row. He notes Spivac's deceptive size, good grappling (flipping Greg Hardy), and ability to adjust. He expects Sakai to make it difficult but Spivac to win a close fight.

"i'm going to be going with sergey spivak... i think he's a great fighter... i feel as though sergey spivak is going to get this one done by decision at 29 28"
LOSS vs Tai Tuivasa
KO (punches) R2 0:26 · UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · Dec 11, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tai Tuivasa 0 21 of 29 72% 40 of 49 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:33
Augusto Sakai 1 34 of 52 65% 44 of 62 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tai Tuivasa 0 19 of 26 73% 38 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:33
Augusto Sakai 0 24 of 37 64% 34 of 47 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:57
2 Tai Tuivasa 0 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Augusto Sakai 1 10 of 15 66% 10 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tai Tuivasa 21 of 29 72% 6 of 12 12 of 13 3 of 4 5 of 12 16 of 17 0 of 0
Augusto Sakai 34 of 52 65% 26 of 43 8 of 8 0 of 1 13 of 27 21 of 25 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tai Tuivasa 19 of 26 73% 4 of 9 12 of 13 3 of 4 3 of 9 16 of 17 0 of 0
Augusto Sakai 24 of 37 64% 16 of 28 8 of 8 0 of 1 5 of 16 19 of 21 0 of 0
2 Tai Tuivasa 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Augusto Sakai 10 of 15 66% 10 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0 8 of 11 2 of 4 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Augusto Sakai vs. Tai Tuivasa

Round 1
Meat is on the menu for this lone rumble on the card above 185 pounds, when Sakai (15-3-1, 4-2 UFC) and Tuivasa (12-3, 6-3 UFC) combine for 528 ready pounds inside the Octagon. Both sport 11 wins by knockout hoping to land another as rare members of the 30-and-under heavyweight club. The third man in the cage is referee Mark Smith, who hopes not to get blonked by an errant blow when these two come out swinging. They do clap hands to get things going, and the fight begins with Tuivasa taking the center of the cage plodding forward to walk Sakai down. Neither throw a strike of note for the first 55 seconds, until Sakai lands a single leg kick to counter a jab from the Aussie. Sakai goes back to circling along the outside, and he pops Tuivasa with another low leg kick. Tuivasa eats another as he continues to walk forward without engaging, until he looses a short combination that leads to him clinch up with his opponent. A stalemate ensues as they cling on one another, and Sakai is warned for smacking Tuivasa in the back of the head with a short shot. Tuivasa gets off a few punches to the midsection, and Sakai takes that personally as he turns him around and they both throw leather. Neither land flush, and Tuivasa returns to his constant forward motion. Tuivasa loads up with a huge uppercut, and he wings punches until Sakai ties him up. The Brazilian defends with his back against the wall with punches on Tuivasa’s ear, and he thinks to set up a high standing guillotine but there is nothing there. Sakai winds up with a knee right to the midsection, and he starts ripping them to the body to decent effect. The Aussie complains one might have gone low, and when Smith does not intervene, Tuivasa takes things into his own hands as he elbows Sakai hard on the chin. Tuivasa lets loose with a short barrage of blows, and Sakai slows him down with a few knees to the belly before the round ends in the clinch.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tuivasa
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Tuivasa
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Tuivasa

Round 2
The fighters meet in the center of the cage and throw, and it is Tuivasa who lands flush first and in volume. Sakai is hurt after taking a left hook square on the chin, and he falls back to the wall while trying to blink it out.
“Bam Bam” does not let him off the hook, blasting him with huge punches as Sakai is barely on his feet. The Aussie lets it rip as he chains punches together, and one lands right on the button to completely disable Sakai. Sakai falls to the ground, consciousness completely stripped away, and his leg bends back in a scary way reminiscent of Mirko Filipovic against Gabriel Gonzaga.
The walk-off knockout successful, Tuivasa jumps on top of the cage and signals for someone to throw him a shoe and a can of beer. In what has become his trademark, Tuivasa completely wins the crowd over by pouring the full beer in the shoe and pounding it after a dramatic victory. That’s four in a row for the boisterous Aussie, who could not be happier with his performance.

The Official Result
Tai Tuivasa def. Augusto Sakai R2 0:26 via KO (Punches)
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Dec 8, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Augusto Sakai

Big Brady edges with Augusto Sakai in a close fight. He notes that both fighters have similar striking and grappling numbers, but Sakai has better cardio and has gone to decisions against tough opponents. Tuivasa tends to fade after the first round, while Sakai is more comfortable in later rounds. Brady expects Sakai to win a 29-28 decision, but acknowledges Tuivasa's power and early-round finishing ability make this a pick'em.

"i'm gonna take sakai to win a 29-28 decision but this fight is so dang close"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Dec 9, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

Daniel Levi picks Tai Tuivasa, noting that Sakai's chin has been checked in his last two losses and his confidence may be shaken. He believes Tuivasa's brawling style and power could get Sakai out early. Levi acknowledges that an extended fight favors Sakai's methodical approach, but he thinks Tuivasa will have big moments that sway the judges. He also mentions Tuivasa's improved training at AKA and lifestyle changes. Levi is not sure it will be a knockout but expects Tuivasa to win.

"give me tuivasa um not sure it's going to be a knockout but i think he can have some big moments in the fight that sway it towards his favor"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

The MMA Guru picks Tai Tuivasa to win by first-round KO. He highlights Tuivasa's improved cardio and calf kicks, which he believes will wear down Sakai. He criticizes Sakai's chin and notes he is coming off a KO loss. He predicts Tuivasa will land a counter right hand or left hook to finish.

first-round KO via calf kicks and counter punches
"i'm going to go the first round ko for tuivasa chopping at the calf early i love those calf kicks"
TKO (punches) R1 4:59 · UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai · Jun 05, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 1 16 of 29 55% 16 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Augusto Sakai 0 3 of 14 21% 3 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 1 16 of 29 55% 16 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Augusto Sakai 0 3 of 14 21% 3 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 16 of 29 55% 6 of 17 5 of 6 5 of 6 15 of 26 0 of 0 1 of 3
Augusto Sakai 3 of 14 21% 0 of 5 1 of 4 2 of 5 3 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 16 of 29 55% 6 of 17 5 of 6 5 of 6 15 of 26 0 of 0 1 of 3
Augusto Sakai 3 of 14 21% 0 of 5 1 of 4 2 of 5 3 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Augusto Sakai

Big Brady thinks the line should be flipped and Sakai should be favored. He notes Rozenstruik has the worst striking defense in the heavyweight division (39%) and a negative strike differential, while Sakai has higher volume and a positive differential. He believes Sakai has a good chin and can outwork Rozenstruik over five rounds, possibly getting a late finish. He acknowledges Rozenstruik's power but thinks Sakai is the better fighter.

"i'm gonna go with sakai i think sakai does get it done"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 2, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Augusto Sakai

Cody leans toward Sakai, noting Rozenstruik's tendency to be tentative and take too long to get going. He points out that Sakai has fast hands and good movement, and if he can improve his cardio from the Overeem fight, he could win early rounds. Cody also mentions that Rozenstruik's power is a threat but Sakai is durable. He suggests the over on rounds and that Sakai could win a decision if he doesn't fade.

over 1.5 rounds, fight starts round three -140
"i'm hoping sakai could potentially build on that i just i can't get behind rosenstruck not with my dollar"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Augusto Sakai

Daniel favors Sakai because he believes Sakai will be the one moving forward with more volume and a more well-rounded game. He notes that Sakai has a methodical Muay Thai style and good output, while Rozenstruik relies heavily on counter-fighting and one-punch knockout power. Daniel points out that Rozenstruik has been down on scorecards before (e.g., the Overeem fight) and that Sakai is the better round winner. He also mentions that Sakai has a good chin and can take a shot, making it hard for Rozenstruik to land a clean counter. Daniel predicts Sakai will win a decision or possibly by outworking Rozenstruik over five rounds.

"i gotta favor sakai here despite him being the underdog it's just really about don't get clipped with one big shot"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Augusto Sakai

Rozenstruik is a one-dimensional knockout artist who is tentative against longer fighters. Sakai has better volume and can use clinch work and takedowns to neutralize Rozenstruik's power. Sakai will win a decision.

Sakai by decision +380, over 3.5 rounds +140
"I got sakai via decision plus 390"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Jun 2, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Augusto Sakai

Paul picks Sakai as a slight underdog, citing Sakai's fast hands and movement for a heavyweight, and his volume punching. He notes Sakai's cardio failed against Overeem but hopes he has improved. Paul is hesitant because Rozenstruik has power and five-round experience, but he can't get behind Rozenstruik's low volume and slow starts. He suggests the fight starts round three as a prop.

fight starts round three -140, over 1.5 rounds, over 2.5 rounds
"gun to my head would be sakai dogger pass dogger pass close fight 50 50. i'm getting slight dog money on sakai"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 30, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Augusto Sakai

The Guru picks Augusto Sakai, expressing frustration with Rozenstruik's hesitancy and lack of urgency, especially in the Cyril Gane fight. He notes Sakai's good chin, pressure, and ability to mix kicks. He compares their fights against Overeem: Sakai was winning early before gassing, while Rozenstruik was dominated. He predicts Sakai will walk Rozenstruik down, pressure him against the cage, and get a second-round TKO via ground and pound.

TKO round 2, ground and pound
"i've got augusto sakai getting it done not to mention he's got pretty good striking defense on the feet as well"
TKO (elbows and punches) R5 0:26 · UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sakai · Sep 05, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alistair Overeem 0 92 of 114 80% 106 of 131 3 of 3 100% 0 0 5:29
Augusto Sakai 0 99 of 173 57% 120 of 196 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alistair Overeem 0 11 of 18 61% 12 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Augusto Sakai 0 22 of 36 61% 24 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:45
2 Alistair Overeem 0 13 of 16 81% 14 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:12
Augusto Sakai 0 24 of 40 60% 28 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:58
3 Alistair Overeem 0 23 of 27 85% 26 of 31 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:44
Augusto Sakai 0 34 of 54 62% 48 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
4 Alistair Overeem 0 40 of 48 83% 49 of 59 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:18
Augusto Sakai 0 19 of 43 44% 20 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
5 Alistair Overeem 0 5 of 5 100% 5 of 5 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:15
Augusto Sakai 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alistair Overeem 92 of 114 80% 53 of 73 30 of 31 9 of 10 28 of 43 16 of 16 48 of 55
Augusto Sakai 99 of 173 57% 66 of 130 25 of 34 8 of 9 62 of 127 35 of 43 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alistair Overeem 11 of 18 61% 2 of 9 6 of 6 3 of 3 6 of 13 5 of 5 0 of 0
Augusto Sakai 22 of 36 61% 13 of 23 8 of 12 1 of 1 14 of 27 8 of 9 0 of 0
2 Alistair Overeem 13 of 16 81% 5 of 7 7 of 7 1 of 2 4 of 7 9 of 9 0 of 0
Augusto Sakai 24 of 40 60% 12 of 24 11 of 15 1 of 1 10 of 22 14 of 18 0 of 0
3 Alistair Overeem 23 of 27 85% 10 of 14 9 of 9 4 of 4 11 of 14 2 of 2 10 of 11
Augusto Sakai 34 of 54 62% 27 of 47 4 of 4 3 of 3 21 of 37 11 of 14 2 of 3
4 Alistair Overeem 40 of 48 83% 31 of 38 8 of 9 1 of 1 7 of 9 0 of 0 33 of 39
Augusto Sakai 19 of 43 44% 14 of 36 2 of 3 3 of 4 17 of 41 2 of 2 0 of 0
5 Alistair Overeem 5 of 5 100% 5 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 5
Augusto Sakai 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Sep 2, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Augusto Sakai

Big Brady picks Sakai mainly as a fade on Overeem's chin, noting Overeem has 13 knockout losses. He acknowledges Sakai is not a huge power puncher but believes he can catch Overeem. He mentions Overeem might have better cardio and could take Sakai down, but Sakai has 83% takedown defense. He suggests betting Sakai inside the distance.

Sakai inside the distance
"i'm gonna go with sakai it's basically a fade on overeem's chin which is not an awful look at this point in his career"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Augusto Sakai

Daniel Levi picks Augusto Sakai to upset Alistair Overeem. He notes Sakai's underrated chin, having taken full KO blows from Arlovski without being hurt, and his methodical Muay Thai striking. Levi is concerned about Overeem's chin and tendency to admire his work, and believes Sakai will eventually catch Overeem, predicting a third-round knockout. He also mentions Sakai's competitive running background as a plus for cardio.

Sakai by KO in round 3
"i feel like sakai's got a very underrated chin man i haven't really seen him you know stumble get hurt drive none of that man so ... i feel like he's gonna come out here and knock alistair out i'ma …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Alistair Overeem

The host picks Overeem to win by third or fourth round TKO. He believes Overeem is better everywhere, with improved grappling and cardio since joining Team Elevation. He expects Overeem to wear on Sakai against the cage, take him down, and pound him out. He notes Overeem's chin is a concern but thinks he can survive Sakai's early power.

"i will take over him to win this fight probably by third or fourth round stoppage"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Alistair Overeem

The MMA Guru picks Alistair Overeem, citing Sakai's lack of impressive wins and a controversial split decision over Andrei Arlovski that he considers a robbery. He believes Overeem's experience and ability to survive early storms will be key, and predicts a second or third round TKO via ground and pound. He notes Overeem's unappealing ground and pound style but expects it to be effective.

second or third round ground and pound tko
"i think overeem is actually gonna get a big ko here um maybe not a ko actually yeah no ko i think he takes down augusto sakai after rocking him gets the submission or gets a tko via crown and …"
WIN vs Blagoy Ivanov
Decision (split) (27–30, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Woodley vs. Burns · May 30, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Augusto Sakai 0 66 of 125 52% 71 of 130 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:08
Blagoy Ivanov 0 78 of 161 48% 89 of 174 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:46
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Augusto Sakai 0 15 of 27 55% 19 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
Blagoy Ivanov 0 12 of 38 31% 16 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
2 Augusto Sakai 0 30 of 49 61% 31 of 50 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:39
Blagoy Ivanov 0 34 of 61 55% 39 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:02
3 Augusto Sakai 0 21 of 49 42% 21 of 49 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Blagoy Ivanov 0 32 of 62 51% 34 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Augusto Sakai 66 of 125 52% 47 of 105 18 of 19 1 of 1 52 of 107 12 of 15 2 of 3
Blagoy Ivanov 78 of 161 48% 35 of 105 28 of 38 15 of 18 62 of 144 14 of 15 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Augusto Sakai 15 of 27 55% 9 of 21 6 of 6 0 of 0 10 of 22 5 of 5 0 of 0
Blagoy Ivanov 12 of 38 31% 3 of 24 4 of 8 5 of 6 10 of 35 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Augusto Sakai 30 of 49 61% 20 of 39 9 of 9 1 of 1 24 of 39 4 of 7 2 of 3
Blagoy Ivanov 34 of 61 55% 18 of 40 9 of 13 7 of 8 23 of 50 9 of 9 2 of 2
3 Augusto Sakai 21 of 49 42% 18 of 45 3 of 4 0 of 0 18 of 46 3 of 3 0 of 0
Blagoy Ivanov 32 of 62 51% 14 of 41 15 of 17 3 of 4 29 of 59 3 of 3 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 27, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Augusto Sakai

Big Brady picks Augusto Sakai to win a very close decision. He thinks Sakai will land more volume and that Ivanov's grappling game plan is unlikely to materialize since Ivanov hasn't used takedowns much in the UFC. He notes that both fighters have great chins and have never been finished, so he expects a boring heavyweight fight that goes to the judges. He admits it's a close fight and wouldn't be surprised if Ivanov gets the decision.

"I'm going to side with Sakai to win by a very very close decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 29, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Augusto Sakai

Daniel picks Sakai, citing his improvements in diet and conditioning, his muay thai skills, and his ability to pressure and outwork Ivanov. He notes that Ivanov is one-dimensional, only countering with left hands, and that Sakai's volume and durability will be key. He believes Sakai can either knock out Ivanov or win a decision.

"i think sakai is the younger man the taller man the guy with the longer reach the guy that throws more volume the more durable guy"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 23, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Augusto Sakai

The MMA Guru picks Augusto Sakai to win by first-round TKO. He compares Sakai to Derrick Lewis but with better technique and more fight IQ. He predicts Sakai will push Ivanov against the cage and land knees and elbows in the clinch for a finish.

Sakai by TKO in round 1
"August osika is gonna push block away up against a cage blast knees to the body blast elbows in the clinch getting the finish in the first round"
WIN vs Marcin Tybura
KO (punches) R1 0:59 · UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje · Sep 14, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Augusto Sakai 0 6 of 7 85% 6 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marcin Tybura 1 15 of 27 55% 15 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Augusto Sakai 0 6 of 7 85% 6 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marcin Tybura 1 15 of 27 55% 15 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Augusto Sakai 6 of 7 85% 1 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 4 6 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marcin Tybura 15 of 27 55% 13 of 25 2 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 18 7 of 7 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Augusto Sakai 6 of 7 85% 1 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 4 6 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marcin Tybura 15 of 27 55% 13 of 25 2 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 18 7 of 7 2 of 2
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Jacaré vs. Hermansson · Apr 27, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Augusto Sakai 0 75 of 175 42% 82 of 182 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
Andrei Arlovski 0 42 of 132 31% 51 of 141 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Augusto Sakai 0 19 of 47 40% 23 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Andrei Arlovski 0 9 of 32 28% 13 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:32
2 Augusto Sakai 0 25 of 70 35% 26 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Andrei Arlovski 0 17 of 47 36% 19 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
3 Augusto Sakai 0 31 of 58 53% 33 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
Andrei Arlovski 0 16 of 53 30% 19 of 56 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Augusto Sakai 75 of 175 42% 31 of 126 29 of 31 15 of 18 65 of 164 10 of 11 0 of 0
Andrei Arlovski 42 of 132 31% 26 of 108 8 of 12 8 of 12 30 of 113 12 of 19 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Augusto Sakai 19 of 47 40% 11 of 37 4 of 6 4 of 4 16 of 44 3 of 3 0 of 0
Andrei Arlovski 9 of 32 28% 5 of 25 2 of 3 2 of 4 7 of 30 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Augusto Sakai 25 of 70 35% 8 of 50 13 of 13 4 of 7 22 of 67 3 of 3 0 of 0
Andrei Arlovski 17 of 47 36% 12 of 39 1 of 4 4 of 4 16 of 45 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Augusto Sakai 31 of 58 53% 12 of 39 12 of 12 7 of 7 27 of 53 4 of 5 0 of 0
Andrei Arlovski 16 of 53 30% 9 of 44 5 of 5 2 of 4 7 of 38 9 of 15 0 of 0
Expert Picks (4)
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Sep 2, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Augusto Sakai

Big Brady picks Sakai mainly as a fade on Overeem's chin, noting Overeem has 13 knockout losses. He acknowledges Sakai is not a huge power puncher but believes he can catch Overeem. He mentions Overeem might have better cardio and could take Sakai down, but Sakai has 83% takedown defense. He suggests betting Sakai inside the distance.

Sakai inside the distance
"i'm gonna go with sakai it's basically a fade on overeem's chin which is not an awful look at this point in his career"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Augusto Sakai

Daniel Levi picks Augusto Sakai to upset Alistair Overeem. He notes Sakai's underrated chin, having taken full KO blows from Arlovski without being hurt, and his methodical Muay Thai striking. Levi is concerned about Overeem's chin and tendency to admire his work, and believes Sakai will eventually catch Overeem, predicting a third-round knockout. He also mentions Sakai's competitive running background as a plus for cardio.

Sakai by KO in round 3
"i feel like sakai's got a very underrated chin man i haven't really seen him you know stumble get hurt drive none of that man so ... i feel like he's gonna come out here and knock alistair out i'ma say in the third round"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Alistair Overeem

The host picks Overeem to win by third or fourth round TKO. He believes Overeem is better everywhere, with improved grappling and cardio since joining Team Elevation. He expects Overeem to wear on Sakai against the cage, take him down, and pound him out. He notes Overeem's chin is a concern but thinks he can survive Sakai's early power.

"i will take over him to win this fight probably by third or fourth round stoppage"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Alistair Overeem

The MMA Guru picks Alistair Overeem, citing Sakai's lack of impressive wins and a controversial split decision over Andrei Arlovski that he considers a robbery. He believes Overeem's experience and ability to survive early storms will be key, and predicts a second or third round TKO via ground and pound. He notes Overeem's unappealing ground and pound style but expects it to be effective.

second or third round ground and pound tko
"i think overeem is actually gonna get a big ko here um maybe not a ko actually yeah no ko i think he takes down augusto sakai after rocking him gets the submission or gets a tko via crown and pound"