UFC on ESPN: Hermansson vs. Vettori

Big Brady picks Jack Hermansson as a dog, surprised by the line movement making Vettori the favorite. He believes Hermansson's cardio in the championship rounds is superior, as Vettori has slowed in the third round of three-round fights. He sees Hermansson's takedowns and ground game as key to grinding Vettori down, and notes Hermansson has faced tougher competition recently. He expects Hermansson to win a decision, possibly taking the last two rounds.

Daniel picks Jack Hermansson, arguing that Marvin Vettori's hype is inflated by a close fight with Israel Adesanya, which was not a true split decision. He notes that Hermansson has better volume, proven five-round cardio, and submission threats, as seen against Jacare Souza. He also questions Vettori's power, stating he doesn't have the one-punch knockout ability to stop Hermansson. However, he acknowledges that Hermansson's mental state could be a factor if he doesn't want to be there.

The host picks Jack Hermansson to win by decision, citing his superior wrestling and top pressure, especially in a five-round fight. He notes that Vettori has not faced someone with Hermansson's ground game and that Hermansson's unorthodox style and lanky strength will be key. He is not confident enough to bet Hermansson at current odds but would consider it if the line widens to +150.

The MMA Guru picks Jack Hermansson by submission in the first two rounds, emphasizing that Hermansson's style is completely different from Jacare's—he fights on the outside, chops at the legs, and waits for takedowns. He believes Vettori is taking a jump too soon and that Hermansson's explosive grappling will be too much. He notes Hermansson almost submitted Jacare with an arm-in guillotine on short notice and predicts a similar early submission here.

Big Brady picks Ovince Saint Preux as an underdog, citing Jamahal Hill's unproven level of competition. He notes Hill's takedown defense is questionable, as he was taken down multiple times by Darko Stosic. He believes OSP's veteran savvy and submission threat will be the difference, predicting OSP will take Hill down and submit him. He acknowledges OSP has been hurt in fights but only knocked out twice in 39 fights.

Daniel is high on Jamahal Hill, calling him one of the brightest light heavyweight prospects with top-five potential. He highlights Hill's exceptional output and volume, noting he can land over 100 strikes in 15 minutes and has a bantamweight-like pace. He praises Hill's get-up game, having gotten up from all six takedowns against Darko Stosic, and his varied striking including jabs, straight lefts, body shots, and kicks. He believes OSP's sparring partner Douglas Usher, a shorter southpaw, is not ideal preparation for Hill's length and reach. He predicts Hill will either knock out OSP or win a dominant decision via volume, similar to Dominick Reyes' win over OSP.

The host picks Jamahal Hill to win, likely by first or second round KO. He believes Hill's diverse striking and size advantage will be a nightmare matchup for OSP, who struggles against bigger, varied strikers. He notes OSP's age and suspect chin, and that Hill's chin-up style is a concern but OSP's counters may not be as effective. He likes Hill at -165 and thinks the line is getting better.

The MMA Guru picks Jamahal Hill by TKO in the first or second round, noting that Hill's size and explosiveness will be key against OSP. He believes Hill's youth and fast improvement will allow him to get inside and finish, while OSP has not been KO'd recently but is vulnerable. He acknowledges OSP is a good underdog but sticks with Hill.

Big Brady picks Gabriel Benítez, noting the line flipped from Benítez opening as an underdog to now being a heavy favorite. He likes Benítez's leg kicks and overall striking, and believes if Benítez survives Jaynes's early storm, he will take over. He predicts a second-round knockout, as Jaynes has never been knocked out but Benítez has finishing ability. He notes Jaynes is a 'one-round and bust' fighter with poor cardio.

Daniel picks Gabriel Benítez but with hesitation, noting that Justin Jaynes has first-round power and has scored knockdowns in both his UFC fights. He believes if Benítez can survive the first round, his body kicks and experience will take over. He cites Javier Mendez calling Benítez the hardest kicker he's ever held pads for, harder than Luke Rockhold or Cain Velasquez. However, he acknowledges Benítez's suspect chin and the emotional weight on Jaynes fighting for his sick father, which historically hasn't favored fighters.

The host picks Gabriel Benítez to win by third round TKO. He highlights Benítez's leg kicks, technical striking, and cardio advantage over Justin Jaynes, who has a narrow path to victory and questionable gas tank. He believes Benítez will chew up the lead leg and finish late as Jaynes fades. He is very confident, giving Benítez a 75% chance of winning.

The MMA Guru picks Gabriel Benítez by unanimous decision, expecting him to weather Justin Jaynes' first-round onslaught and take over in the second and third rounds as Jaynes gasses. He notes Benítez has a good chin and has faced tough competition, while Jaynes showed cardio issues in his loss to Gavin Tucker. He predicts a 29-28 scorecard.

Big Brady picks Roman Dolidze, calling him a 'madman' with serious power and a world champion grappling background. He believes Dolidze is the better fighter everywhere and that the line should be wider. He notes John Allan's win over Mike Rodriguez was overrated due to Rodriguez's poor takedown defense, and Allan popped for steroids. He predicts a first-round knockout and has already bet Dolidze at -175, stating he would bet him up to -220.

Daniel picks Roman Dolidze, noting his impressive knockout of Khadis Ibragimov and his ADCC-level grappling, including a heel hook submission on Nikita Krylov. He acknowledges John Allan's power and black belt jiu-jitsu but questions his cardio and the positive drug test after his UFC debut. He is unsure how Dolidze will handle takedown attempts, as he might accept them and play off his back, but overall believes Dolidze is the tougher fighter and will get past this test.

The host picks Roman Dolidze to win by KO or submission, likely in the first or second round. He notes Dolidze's high-level jiu-jitsu and power, and that his low output is less of an issue against an active striker like Allan. He believes Dolidze's counter-striking and willingness to engage on the ground will be key, and that Allan may not want to grapple with him. He likes Dolidze at -160 and sees a high ceiling.

The MMA Guru picks Roman Dolidze by TKO in the second round, citing his strength, takedown defense, and aggressive style. He notes Dolidze started his career late but has taken tough fights early, including a win over a 15-4 opponent. He is less impressed by John Allan's contender series loss to Vinicius Moreira and believes Dolidze will finish him with ground and pound or a knee.

Big Brady picks Jordan Leavitt but is not impressed by his tape, calling his striking non-existent. He believes Leavitt's relentless takedowns will be key against a washed-up Matt Wiman, who has looked awful in recent fights. He notes Wiman is a black belt in BJJ and has never been submitted, so he expects Leavitt to win a decision rather than a finish. He strongly advises against betting Leavitt at -400, calling the line crazy.

Daniel picks Jordan Leavitt but is not confident laying -400. He notes that while Leavitt has good jiu-jitsu and is improving, he is a purple belt, not a black belt like Salkilld, who couldn't submit Wiman. He points out that Wiman is a tough veteran with good submission defense and has survived against high-level grapplers. However, Wiman's takedown defense is poor, and Leavitt should win via takedowns and top control. He also mentions Leavitt's quirky personality and that he enjoys watching him fight.

The host picks Jordan Leavitt to win by submission in the first or second round. He notes Leavitt's unorthodox grappling and submission hunting, and that Matt Wiman's takedown defense and age are weaknesses. However, he is not comfortable betting Leavitt at -390 due to his poor striking and red flags, and sees this as a pass for betting. He expects Leavitt to get the submission but will look to fade him next time.

The MMA Guru picks Jordan Leavitt by unanimous decision, praising his strategic ground game and methodical approach. He notes that Leavitt's win over Luke Flores showed his education on the ground, but he doesn't expect a submission because Wiman is an experienced veteran. He predicts Leavitt will control the fight with takedowns and submission attempts.

Big Brady picks Louis Smolka despite concerns about his weight miss and fight cancellation. He thinks Smolka is the better fighter and that Quiñónez is not that great. He notes Smolka's high volume striking and believes Quiñónez's takedowns could lead to submission danger. However, he is not betting due to Smolka's unreliability and the price tag. He predicts Smolka wins inside the distance.

Daniel picks José Quiñónez, comparing his style to a Mexican version of Dominick Cruz with feints, kicks, and level changes. He believes Quiñónez can outwork Smolka on the feet and mix in takedowns. He notes that Smolka's only path to victory is a knockout, but Quiñónez's chin is a concern due to a past brutal knockout. However, he thinks Smolka doesn't have one-punch power, so Quiñónez should be safe. He also cites Smolka's poor lifestyle choices, including missing weight and eating competitions, as red flags.

The host picks Louis Smolka to win, possibly by finish in the first or second round. He likes Smolka's improved striking, especially his body work, and believes Quiñónez can be lulled into that game. However, he is not keen on betting Smolka at -140 and would prefer a pick'em line. He notes Smolka's jiu-jitsu advantage and expects him to implement his game plan.

The MMA Guru picks José Alberto Quiñónez because he likes his herky-jerky style on the feet and his experience fighting top competition early in his UFC career. He notes that Quiñónez has a reach advantage despite being shorter and believes Smolka hasn't performed at a high level recently. He also jokingly suggests the UFC may have rigged the fight since they list Quiñónez's record as 9-4 instead of 8-4.

Big Brady picks Ilia Topuria, acknowledging his youth and potential. He believes Topuria's wrestling and ground game are fantastic and that he can get takedowns on Jackson. He notes Jackson is dangerous with a 95% finish rate and has never lost by decision, so he expects a finish. He predicts Topuria by submission, as Jackson has been submitted before. He is cautious about the price (-230) but thinks Topuria is the better fighter.

Daniel is very high on Ilia Topuria, calling him the real deal. He highlights Topuria's toughness, noting that in his last regional fight he was dropped with a head kick but got up and knocked out his opponent. In his UFC debut on short notice, he went the distance and dismantled Youssef Zalal. With a full camp, Daniel believes Topuria can win by takedowns or stand-up. He thinks Damon Jackson's only path is a comeback win, which he doesn't see happening, as Jackson is a journeyman grappler who was outgrappled by Mirsad Bektic before Bektic gassed.

The host picks Ilia Topuria to win by submission in the first or second round, but his favorite play is the under 2.5 rounds. He believes Topuria has superior jiu-jitsu and will likely finish Jackson early, though Jackson's submission threat and cardio could be factors if the fight goes longer. He notes Jackson's value as an underdog but prefers the under.

The MMA Guru picks Ilia Topuria by unanimous decision, citing his impressive win over Yusuf Salah on short notice and his calmness on the ground against submissions. He believes Topuria will outgrapple Jackson and control the fight, though he acknowledges Jackson is dangerous off his back. He notes Topuria is a juicy favorite but won't be baited by the odds.

Big Brady hesitantly picks Gian Villante, calling it an ugly fight that should be a pick'em. He notes Villante had a better showing in his last fight against Maurice Greene, while Collier was knocked out quickly by Tom Aspinall. He says his pick might change after weigh-ins, depending on which fighter looks more motivated and in shape. He strongly advises against betting on this fight.

Daniel picks Gian Villante, citing Jake Collier's massive weight gain (from 185 to 265 lbs) and lack of training. He notes that Villante at least dropped Maurice Greene in his last fight, while Collier has been inactive and likely out of shape. He says if Collier shows up lighter, he could be a live underdog, but based on current information, Villante should win via leg kicks or a finish. He also mentions that both fighters looked terrible in their last outings, but Villante is the better pick.

The host picks Jake Collier as a significant underdog, believing the line is absurdly wide. He argues that Collier has better overall game, durability, and cardio than Villante, who is uncoachable and gasses easily. He expects Collier to win by late stoppage or decision, and will bet him at plus money, especially if it reaches +200.

The MMA Guru picks Gian Villante by TKO in the second round, criticizing both fighters' conditioning but favoring Villante's experience and recent performance against Maurice Green. He notes Villante is a two-to-one favorite and sees no way he loses, predicting leg kicks will set up the finish.