UFC on ESPN: Hermansson vs. Vettori · Dec 05, 2020 · Middleweight · Completed
UFC on ESPN: Hermansson vs. Vettori Next Fight
Age 32
Height 6' 0"
Reach 74.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 37
Height 6' 1"
Reach 77.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Marvin Vettori
4.74 SLpM
45.0% Str. Acc.
4.55 SApM
56.0% Str. Def.
1.41 TD Avg
43.0% TD Acc.
68.0% TD Def.
0.4 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Jack Hermansson
5.15 SLpM
45.0% Str. Acc.
3.72 SApM
56.0% Str. Def.
1.48 TD Avg
29.0% TD Acc.
80.0% TD Def.
0.4 Sub. Avg
Marvin Vettori - Fight History
SCHED vs Ismail Naurdiev
LOSS vs Brunno Ferreira
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 323 · Dec 06, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marvin Vettori 0 88 of 186 47% 90 of 188 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:08
Brunno Ferreira 0 77 of 149 51% 77 of 149 1 of 7 14% 0 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marvin Vettori 0 27 of 49 55% 28 of 50 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:04
Brunno Ferreira 0 25 of 47 53% 25 of 47 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
2 Marvin Vettori 0 31 of 71 43% 31 of 71 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Brunno Ferreira 0 30 of 55 54% 30 of 55 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Marvin Vettori 0 30 of 66 45% 31 of 67 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:04
Brunno Ferreira 0 22 of 47 46% 22 of 47 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marvin Vettori 88 of 186 47% 78 of 176 1 of 1 9 of 9 86 of 181 2 of 4 0 of 1
Brunno Ferreira 77 of 149 51% 60 of 130 9 of 10 8 of 9 73 of 143 3 of 3 1 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marvin Vettori 27 of 49 55% 22 of 44 0 of 0 5 of 5 27 of 48 0 of 1 0 of 0
Brunno Ferreira 25 of 47 53% 18 of 40 3 of 3 4 of 4 25 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 2
2 Marvin Vettori 31 of 71 43% 27 of 67 1 of 1 3 of 3 29 of 68 2 of 3 0 of 0
Brunno Ferreira 30 of 55 54% 21 of 45 5 of 5 4 of 5 27 of 52 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Marvin Vettori 30 of 66 45% 29 of 65 0 of 0 1 of 1 30 of 65 0 of 0 0 of 1
Brunno Ferreira 22 of 47 46% 21 of 45 1 of 2 0 of 0 21 of 46 0 of 0 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

Angelo picks Marvin Vettori, citing his incredible durability and experience against top competition. He notes that Vettori has been fighting the top 10 for years, while Ferreira has not faced the same level. Angelo acknowledges Ferreira's power and judo but doubts his cardio and ability to hurt Vettori. He expects Vettori to weather an early storm and win a decision, and he bet on the over 2.5 rounds.

over 2.5 rounds (bet at -140, half unit)
"Marvin Vettori is gonna be the pick here. I think Marvin gets it done. I even bet on the round over."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Nov 26, 2025 (10 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

Big Brady picks Marvin Vettori despite calling him 'washed'. He notes Vettori's durability and volume, and Ferreira's cardio issues, referencing Ferreira's loss to Abus Magomedov. He expects Vettori to mix in takedowns, grind on Ferreira, and submit him in the third round.

Vettori by third round submission
"I'm going to take Vtori to, you know, mix in the takedowns, grind on Ferrer, get him tired, and actually submit Ferrer in the third round."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

Cody picks Vettori, citing his durability and volume. He notes that Vettori has never been finished and has gone the distance with top competition. He believes Ferreira relies on early finishes and will fade if he doesn't get them. He thinks Vettori will outwork Ferreira and win by decision.

"It's got to be Marv. It's got to be Marv. Is this where Marv's head actually falls off for the first time? If it is, then then so be it."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

Connor picks Brunno Ferreira, citing that Vettori has lost his way after leaving Kings MMA and now fights without a clear game plan. He notes that Ferreira is a power puncher with submission threats, and while Vettori should win on paper, his recent performances show he is adrift. Connor calls it a vibes pick.

"I'm going to take Fajeta. He seems totally adrift to me. Like he just does not know what the aim is."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 27, 2025 (9 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

Daniel picks Ferreira, citing Vettori's decline (1-5 since title fight), lack of power, and fading durability. He believes Ferreira's power and finishing ability will be too much, and he expects Ferreira to become the first to finish Vettori in the UFC. He notes Vettori's volume edge but doubts it matters.

"Bruno Hulk Ferra is going to be the first man in UFC history to finish Marvin Vtori."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Nov 29, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

Lucrative James believes Marvin Vettori has looked washed recently, with declining durability. He notes Ferreira's power and thinks Vettori's chin may finally crack. He acknowledges the risk of betting against a proven chin but sees value in Ferreira as an underdog. He leans towards a KO win for Ferreira but does not predict the method definitively.

"I got Bruno Ferrer here, man."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Marvin Vettori

The host notes the opposite recent records but sees this as a step up in competition for Ferreira. He highlights Vettori's never-been-finished durability and Ferreira's lack of decision wins, expecting Vettori to bully Ferreira and pull out the win in deep water.

"Vtori's never been finished and Fera has never won a fight by decision... Vtori puts it on him, bullies him, and pulls his fight out in deep water."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

Paul agrees, emphasizing Vettori's chin and experience against elite fighters. He notes that Ferreira's wins are all first-round finishes and that he has never won a decision. He believes Vettori's size and durability will allow him to outlast Ferreira and win by decision or late finish.

"Marvin Vtori is one hell of a survivor."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

The Guru picks Brunno Ferreira to finish Marvin Vettori, despite Vettori's legendary chin. He notes Vettori is becoming more hittable and showing damage, and Ferreira has KO power and submissions. The Guru predicts a first-round finish by TKO or submission.

first round finish
"Brunno Fe is going to finish Marvin Vtori by TKO early in this fight. I reckon I think it's going to be the first or second round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

Zane picks Brunno Ferreira, agreeing that Vettori has destroyed his own ability to fight with a good process. He notes that Ferreira is a power puncher with poor footwork but has knockout wins. Zane believes Vettori's indecision and gun-shyness could lead to Ferreira landing a big shot.

"I agree. The head of the game makes no, it is not even a borderline elite middleweight game."
LOSS vs Brendan Allen
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · Jul 19, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marvin Vettori 0 109 of 253 43% 115 of 262 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:17
Brendan Allen 0 111 of 224 49% 119 of 233 3 of 4 75% 0 0 1:27
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marvin Vettori 0 29 of 58 50% 35 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:17
Brendan Allen 0 30 of 55 54% 38 of 64 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:20
2 Marvin Vettori 0 36 of 95 37% 36 of 95 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Brendan Allen 0 42 of 83 50% 42 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Marvin Vettori 0 44 of 100 44% 44 of 100 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Brendan Allen 0 39 of 86 45% 39 of 86 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marvin Vettori 109 of 253 43% 98 of 239 5 of 7 6 of 7 99 of 240 4 of 5 6 of 8
Brendan Allen 111 of 224 49% 86 of 194 18 of 23 7 of 7 100 of 210 4 of 4 7 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marvin Vettori 29 of 58 50% 25 of 53 1 of 1 3 of 4 21 of 47 2 of 3 6 of 8
Brendan Allen 30 of 55 54% 23 of 46 6 of 8 1 of 1 23 of 45 0 of 0 7 of 10
2 Marvin Vettori 36 of 95 37% 34 of 92 0 of 1 2 of 2 36 of 95 0 of 0 0 of 0
Brendan Allen 42 of 83 50% 32 of 71 6 of 8 4 of 4 41 of 82 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Marvin Vettori 44 of 100 44% 39 of 94 4 of 5 1 of 1 42 of 98 2 of 2 0 of 0
Brendan Allen 39 of 86 45% 31 of 77 6 of 7 2 of 2 36 of 83 3 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Brendan Allen vs. Marvin Vettori
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Allen (-245), Vettori (+200)

Round 1
Last year, middleweight contenders Vettori (19-8-1, 9-6-1 UFC) and Allen (24-7, 12-4 UFC) met on a casino floor, where their meeting ended with a brawl. The promotion elected to place that inside the Octagon, with referee Bassel Mahgoub in charge. They plan on settling their bad blood, and have the next 15 minutes or fewer to do so. There is no glove touch.
Vettori advances, trusting his iron chin, and he tests it early when Allen wings several high kicks and punches at him. Vettori takes them all cleanly without budging, firing back a right hook that shakes Allen up. Allen retaliates and busts Vettori’s nose up, and he shoots in for a double and hurls the Italian to the mat. Allen’s ground-and-pound makes Vettori turn around, and he takes the back and gets both hooks in. Allen starts hunting for a rear-naked choke, but partially because of the blood, Vettori slips his neck free. The explosive Italian surges up to a knee despite Allen riding him like a bucking bronco, under fire the whole time. Chants for “USA” in support of Allen boom in the building, and he clasps his hands and takes Vettori for a ride. Allen clings on the back but slides off, with Vettori assuming top position and finding himself quickly in leglock danger. Vettori pushes through the sub setup to spin around and deliver fierce ground-and-pound until Allen ties him up.
Vettori uses his elbow to bash Allen in the cheek, and his own strikes briefly have Allen turning around to present his own back. Vettori threatens with a rear-naked choke, and Allen shakes him off and gets to his feet. Allen drives a kick to the ribs, and they both nail one another with looping punches. Vettori’s face is a bloody mess but there may not be many individual cuts on it, and he is unconcerned as he lets his hands go and rings Allen’s bell once or twice. Allen absorbs a body kick and a right hand, and he jabs his man back. Allen tries to put a few punches together, and Vettori hits him harder and makes him reevaluate his approach. Vettori follows a jab with a left hand, and Allen cracks him with a right that sends him staggering back. Allen leaps forward and takes a right hand on the bow, and when he lands, they bang it out to the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Allen

Round 2
The middleweights measure one another with early jabs, with Allen’ head movement protecting him from most other than a couple straight left hands that reach him. Allen responds with a body kick, and Vettori snaps his head back with power jabs. A huge left hook from Vettori goes wide, and Allen times a solid body shot down the middle. Allen loops two lefts around the guard and points at the Italian, and Vettori returns fire with a pair of one-twos. Allen has busted Vettori up again with his brief but effective combos, and he times an elbow when Vettori comes at him. Allen slams a shin to the ribs and pecks out a jab, escaping out of the way from the worst of a pair of hooks. The two trade it out, with Allen pushing Vettori back after the exchange. Allen snaps out several jabs, rocking Vettori with two subsequent right hands that he celebrates by pointing at Vettori again. Allen walks Vettori down to the wall, cornering him and making him bite on fakes and feints.
Allen is briefly drawn into a slugfest that knocks him back, and he sees the telegraphed hurled arms coming at and past him. When Vettori misses, Allen stabs him in the torso with two front kicks, toes extended. They land at the same time, and Allen counts his connect and hits Vettori again for good measure. Vettori is bloodied and bruised but still throwing just as hard as before, clipping Allen at the end of a left but not slowing him down one instant. Allen is right back in his face with jabs and right hands to follow, and a body kick lands on the belt line as Vettori appears briefly concerned of a foul but does not ask for it to be called. Allen overswings a right hand, and Vettori stands him up with his counter. Allen replies with a right hand and points once more, drawing “The Italian Dream” into a slugfest where he controls the terms of engagement. Vettori knocks Allen back a step with a punch or two, but he cannot get Allen to reset as the pressure may be starting to get to him. Allen wraps his foot upside Vettori’s head, and Vettori drills him with a punch combination right as the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Allen

Round 3
Reaching the last round, Allen reintroduces himself with a body kick. Vettori does not want to be left out, and he hurls a high kick at his opponent that bangs into the guard. Allen chips at the front leg to disrupt Vettori’s forward movement, drilling him with a one-two after it. Allen pops Vettori in the chops with a right hand, briefly stunning him, but his remarkable durability is on display again as Allen walks him down pointing at him. Allen keeps his right hand up to parry the check right hook coming his way, slipping around another to catch Vettori. Not to be outdone, Vettori hurts Allen with a combination. Allen gathers his thoughts and makes blood spray from the Italian’s face with a thunderous combination, but Vettori does not so much as wobble. Vettori mixes up punches to split the guard with one, and Allen gives him something to think about with one to the solar plexus. Vettori wings a big left hand that skims off the side of the head, and his right that follows hits a little harder. Allen ignores them to work the body with a kick.
Allen keeps on the pressure, celebrating his handiwork when something clean lands and he avoids the response. He does this a few times, as Vettori slows every so often but is still throwing fire. Vettori whiffs with looping punches, and a left hand knocks Allen back a bit. Allen bites down on his mouthpiece and cracks Vettori back. Vettori is a bruiser and stands right in the pocket to trade, while Allen does the same and follows a few punches with a knee that stings his opponent. Vettori a little shaken up, Allen takes him down with a well-timed double. The Italian does not stay grounded for long, exploding back to his feet with a bit under a minute left. The defense falls through the floor for these two, who jack one another in the jaw with everything they still have. Allen lands a left and gets up a head kick on the other side, and his follow-up elbow hurts Vettori. Vettori backs off to the fence, bounces off it and rallies to engage in one final brawl. “All In” obliges him, and the two middleweights bang it out right to the final bell in a blood-and-guts battle that is an early frontrunner for “Fight of the Night” if one is awarded at night’s end. Each round was individually close, so scores could be all over the map here.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Allen (30-27 Allen)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Vettori (29-28 Allen)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Vettori (29-28 Allen)

The Official Result
Brendan Allen def. Marvin Vettori via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 13, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

Angelo picks Marvin Vettori despite being an underdog, citing his durability and consistent forward pressure. He questions Brendan Allen's mental consistency and identity, noting Allen's talent but tendency to underperform. He suggests a plus 3.5 bet on Vettori as a safer play.

Says the bet here is probably a plus three and a half on Vettori.
"The pick is going to be Marvin Vtori. Low confidence in that."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jul 15, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

Big Brady leans Marvin Vettori, disagreeing with the line that makes Allen a heavy favorite. He argues Vettori has advantages in striking volume, cardio, and durability, and that Allen's best wins are unimpressive. He expects a close split decision, possibly influenced by Allen's hometown.

Vettori by split decision; line value on Vettori at +175
"I'm going to take Marvin Vtori here. ... This fight has split written all over it."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

The host thinks this is a great matchup for Vettori to keep the fight upright, bully Allen in the clinch and in pocket exchanges, and pull away on the scorecards. This indicates a clear path to victory.

"I think this is a great match up for Vtori to keep this fight upright, bully Allen in the clinch, and bully him even more in the pocket exchanges as he pulls away winning this matchup on the scorecards."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Brendan Allen

The MMA Guru picks Brendan Allen over Marvin Vettori, predicting a 29-28 decision. He criticizes Vettori's lack of power and volume, noting that he landed only about 90 significant strikes in recent fights. Allen is described as more versatile with kicks and grappling, though he can be reckless. The Guru believes Allen will mix in takedowns and out-hustle Vettori, who is coming off a long layoff and personal issues. He also notes that Vettori cannot finish Allen and that Allen's chin is durable enough to handle Vettori's shots.

"I'm going to go with Brendan Allen to win this one."
LOSS vs Roman Dolidze
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · Mar 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marvin Vettori 0 111 of 220 50% 112 of 221 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Roman Dolidze 0 141 of 338 41% 141 of 340 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marvin Vettori 0 19 of 38 50% 19 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Roman Dolidze 0 17 of 52 32% 17 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Marvin Vettori 0 20 of 45 44% 20 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Roman Dolidze 0 31 of 66 46% 31 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Marvin Vettori 0 22 of 34 64% 22 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Roman Dolidze 0 18 of 62 29% 18 of 63 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
4 Marvin Vettori 0 21 of 43 48% 21 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Roman Dolidze 0 37 of 71 52% 37 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Marvin Vettori 0 29 of 60 48% 30 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Roman Dolidze 0 38 of 87 43% 38 of 88 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marvin Vettori 111 of 220 50% 72 of 173 8 of 11 31 of 36 110 of 218 1 of 2 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 141 of 338 41% 85 of 253 20 of 36 36 of 49 137 of 332 4 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marvin Vettori 19 of 38 50% 8 of 26 2 of 2 9 of 10 19 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 17 of 52 32% 9 of 40 2 of 2 6 of 10 17 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Marvin Vettori 20 of 45 44% 12 of 36 0 of 0 8 of 9 20 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 31 of 66 46% 18 of 50 2 of 3 11 of 13 31 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Marvin Vettori 22 of 34 64% 16 of 26 3 of 4 3 of 4 22 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 18 of 62 29% 12 of 50 2 of 8 4 of 4 17 of 61 1 of 1 0 of 0
4 Marvin Vettori 21 of 43 48% 12 of 32 0 of 1 9 of 10 21 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 37 of 71 52% 24 of 51 4 of 7 9 of 13 36 of 70 1 of 1 0 of 0
5 Marvin Vettori 29 of 60 48% 24 of 53 3 of 4 2 of 3 28 of 58 1 of 2 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 38 of 87 43% 22 of 62 10 of 16 6 of 9 36 of 83 2 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Angelo picks Roman Dolidze over Marvin Vettori in the rematch. He cites Vettori's two-year layoff, a rumored shoulder injury, and Dolidze's progression since their first fight. Angelo notes Dolidze has improved his striking and grappling activity, and he likes the 'win inside distance, decision no action' prop for Dolidze because he can finish and is durable.

Win inside distance, decision no action (Roman Dolidze)
"I got to go Roman here. Roman has picked up the striking activity he's picked up the grappling activity he got the hair done up and I think he can get it done here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

Big Brady picks Marvin Vettori, arguing that the first fight was close but Vettori outlanded Dolidze in two of three rounds. He emphasizes that this is a five-round fight, which favors Vettori's superior cardio and minute-winning style, while Dolidze is not a five-round fighter and needs a finish to win. Brady believes Vettori's takedown defense will keep the fight standing, where he will outwork Dolidze. He predicts a decision win for Vettori, though he expresses concern about corrupt judges.

Vettori by decision
"I got to go vtori here... I think vtori wins this fight and wins it by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)

Cody believes Hernandez's weaponized gas tank and constant pressure will eventually break Dolidze, especially in a five-round fight. He notes Hernandez is a slow starter and has durability issues, but expects him to take over in later rounds. He suggests live betting Hernandez after the first round for better value.

"I do got him. I don't love the price, but five rounds is built for three round fight at this price. I'm thinking of the dog. I actually am five round fight. That's enough for me to go Fluffy's way. …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

Connor picks Vettori despite acknowledging the X-factors of injury and camp change, because he believes Vettori's Kings MMA programming makes him durable and consistent. He notes that Vettori's style of moving forward and punching is hard to break, and that Dolidze's unathletic brawling may not be enough to overcome Vettori's pressure. However, he expresses concern that Vettori might try to be too technical after the layoff.

Odds: Vettori opened -127, now -149; Dolidze opened +107, now +132. Connor mentions the line seems logical.
"I'm going to take Marvin Vittori still."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Jan 31, 2024 (409 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Daniel picks Roman Dolidze as a plus money underdog, acknowledging the speed and movement advantage of Imavov but believing Dolidze's dangerous finishing ability and durability give him a chance over five rounds. He notes Dolidze's cardio concerns but thinks Imavov fades harder, and that Dolidze's leg lock threat is mitigated by Imavov's training with Ciryl Gane. He is not confident, calling it a tough fight where he could be frustrated if Dolidze gets outpointed.

"I kind of feel like I should just because I'm picking like a plus 150 dog out right but I I'm not delusional and I know what the concerns are"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

The host expects Vettori to replicate his previous decision win, using his ability to mix it up in the clinch and improved striking to shut down Dolidze's overaggressive nature. He predicts Vettori will outpoint, out strike, and out grapple Dolidze to win on the scorecards.

"I expect him to replicate that result here as I believe his ability to mix it up in the clinch and land his improving striking approach should be able to shut down the overaggressive nature of Del's game look for …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)
Roman Dolidze

Paul thinks Dolidze has improved striking and can exploit Hernandez's questionable standup and body vulnerability. He believes the market has overcooked Hernandez and sees value in Dolidze as a dog. He plans to wait for better odds, possibly plus 300 on fight day.

"I think it's deletes. He's shown more in the striking. Like I the biggest like he he absolutely crushed me against Victoria and there was nothing I could really say about it except for the fact that I really really …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Roman Dolidze

The MMA Guru picks Roman Dolidze, believing he could have won the first fight. He notes Dolidze's momentum with three fights in 2024, including wins over Anthony Smith and Kevin Holland, showing improvement. He questions Marvin Vettori's activity and recovery from the Cannonier beatdown and an injury. He thinks Dolidze's finishing potential and size advantage are key, and he predicts a 48-47 decision win for Dolidze, though a finish is possible. He also notes Dolidze is an underdog.

Dolidze is an underdog; predicted 48-47 decision.
"I'm actually going to go with Roman delzy over Marvin vtori... I'm going to say he wins this one 48 47 decision but if there is a finish I think it will go to delzy as well"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Mar 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Zane picks Dolidze based on the suspicion that Vettori's long layoff and potential camp change to American Top Team could disrupt his game. He notes that Vettori backed up a lot and got hit hard in their first fight, and that Dolidze came worryingly close to outworking him. However, he acknowledges Dolidze's unathletic style and that Vettori is durable and hard to put away.

Odds: Vettori opened -127, now -149; Dolidze opened +107, now +132. Zane mentions the line seems logical.
"I'm going to say to Lizzie just on that suspicion."
LOSS vs Jared Cannonier
Decision (unanimous) (49–45, 49–45, 48–46) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Vettori vs. Cannonier · Jun 17, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jared Cannonier 0 153 of 301 50% 154 of 302 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:28
Marvin Vettori 0 241 of 411 58% 257 of 428 4 of 6 66% 0 0 3:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jared Cannonier 0 38 of 71 53% 38 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marvin Vettori 0 29 of 66 43% 29 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jared Cannonier 0 24 of 50 48% 24 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marvin Vettori 0 82 of 125 65% 94 of 138 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:46
3 Jared Cannonier 0 31 of 50 62% 31 of 50 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:23
Marvin Vettori 0 49 of 81 60% 52 of 84 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:43
4 Jared Cannonier 0 37 of 76 48% 37 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marvin Vettori 0 32 of 57 56% 32 of 57 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:34
5 Jared Cannonier 0 23 of 54 42% 24 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Marvin Vettori 0 49 of 82 59% 50 of 83 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jared Cannonier 153 of 301 50% 117 of 257 15 of 21 21 of 23 148 of 293 5 of 8 0 of 0
Marvin Vettori 241 of 411 58% 173 of 339 39 of 43 29 of 29 195 of 354 26 of 31 20 of 26
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jared Cannonier 38 of 71 53% 31 of 63 3 of 4 4 of 4 37 of 69 1 of 2 0 of 0
Marvin Vettori 29 of 66 43% 14 of 51 8 of 8 7 of 7 28 of 65 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Jared Cannonier 24 of 50 48% 21 of 44 2 of 4 1 of 2 22 of 47 2 of 3 0 of 0
Marvin Vettori 82 of 125 65% 62 of 104 15 of 16 5 of 5 58 of 96 12 of 13 12 of 16
3 Jared Cannonier 31 of 50 62% 23 of 42 3 of 3 5 of 5 30 of 49 1 of 1 0 of 0
Marvin Vettori 49 of 81 60% 36 of 66 8 of 10 5 of 5 41 of 70 7 of 10 1 of 1
4 Jared Cannonier 37 of 76 48% 26 of 63 4 of 5 7 of 8 37 of 75 0 of 1 0 of 0
Marvin Vettori 32 of 57 56% 22 of 46 3 of 4 7 of 7 32 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Jared Cannonier 23 of 54 42% 16 of 45 3 of 5 4 of 4 22 of 53 1 of 1 0 of 0
Marvin Vettori 49 of 82 59% 39 of 72 5 of 5 5 of 5 36 of 66 6 of 7 7 of 9
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 11, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

Angelo picks Marvin Vettori, trusting his chin and pressure. He notes that Vettori's takedowns and volume should be effective against Jared Cannonier, who can be gun shy at 39. Vettori lands more significant strikes and has only lost to top competition. Angelo has a half unit moneyline bet on Vettori at minus 145.

"I'm confident in Marvin here I have a money line him at minus 145. I think Marvin vittori gets it done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 10, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

Big Brady picks Marvin Vettori to win by decision. He believes Vettori will implement a wrestling-heavy game plan, pushing Cannonier against the cage and taking him down, similar to Israel Adesanya's second fight strategy. He notes Cannonier hasn't faced many wrestlers recently and has been taken down in the past by Derek Brunson and David Branch. Brady emphasizes Vettori's superior cardio, toughness, and durability, and thinks he can win minutes with control and grappling over 25 minutes. He does not expect a finish but sees a clear path to a decision win.

"I think Marvin vittori is going to go out there with that Israel adesanya game plan... I think he's going to implement that game plan here and I think he will have success."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 14, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jared Cannonier

Cody initially gravitates toward Vettori due to his elite generalist skills, cardio, and durability, but he reconsiders after reviewing Cannonier's last fight against Sean Strickland, where Cannonier landed 141 significant strikes and proved he can maintain pace for five rounds despite his muscular build. He notes that Vettori's wrestling may not be good enough to take Cannonier down and hold him there, and that Vettori's last fight against Roman Dolidze was a close call where many thought he lost. Cody ultimately leans Cannonier for landing more damaging strikes, but acknowledges the fight could go either way and recommends betting live rather than pre-fight.

recommends betting live; mentions over 2 takedowns for Vettori but doesn't commit
"I think I'm gonna go with Cannon here"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

Connor picks Vettori, citing his consistency, durability, and high output. He argues that Vettori is more reliable minute-to-minute than Cannonier, and that Cannonier's lack of a systematic approach will allow Vettori to outwork him. Connor expects a five-round decision where Vettori lands more strikes and edges out rounds.

"I'll take Vittori."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jared Cannonier

Daniel Levi picks Jared Cannonier, citing comparable volume but a significant power advantage for Cannonier. He notes Cannonier's high output against Strickland (140+ significant strikes) and believes Cannonier lands the harder shots that impress judges. He expects a decision win for Cannonier, though acknowledges a finish is possible. He also mentions Cannonier's leg kicks as a key weapon and Vettori's susceptibility to them. He got Cannonier at +100 and expects the fight to be close but favors Cannonier's power.

bet at +100, decision likely, leg kicks key
"I jumped on that plus 100 when it was available"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jared Cannonier

Cannonier lands more significant strikes over a prolonged period, similar to what Roman Dolidze did but for longer. Vettori's striking is improving but he will struggle to implement his clinch/grappling game because Cannonier is tough to keep in one spot and difficult to hold down. Cannonier keeps the fight upright, uses leg kicks and movement, and lands big shots down the middle. Vettori is very durable so Cannonier wins by decision.

"I'm gonna go with Jared Cannonier here because I feel like he can land the more significant strikes from a prolonged period of time... give me Jared cannonier by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 14, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jared Cannonier

Paul agrees with Cody, noting the line has shortened from +130s to near pick'em, which he considers sharp. He thinks Vettori can take Cannonier down but cannot hold him down and maintain position. He likes the over 2 takedowns prop for Vettori but is not fully committed. He leans Cannonier for landing more damaging strikes over 25 minutes but says anything could happen.

likes over 2 takedowns for Vettori
"I'm with you I I'm leaning towards Jared Cannon here just on Landing the more damaging strikes over the course of 25 minutes"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jared Cannonier

The MMA Guru picks Jared Cannonier over Marvin Vettori, arguing Cannonier is more dynamic with leg kicks, body kicks, and elbows, while Vettori mostly boxes. He compares their common opponents: Cannonier held his own against Robert Whittaker and Israel Adesanya, while Vettori was schooled by both. He also notes Cannonier knocked out Derek Brunson, while Vettori went to a decision. He predicts a 49-46 decision win for Cannonier.

"I'm gonna be going with Ma I'm going Jared can near over Marvin Victoria... Cannon here has better leg kicks than Victoria"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jared Cannonier

Zane picks Cannonier because he believes Cannonier's power will be the deciding factor. He notes that Cannonier is not consistent but has a 'get out of jail free card' with his power, and that Vettori has been pushed out of his fight by power punchers like Whittaker and Adesanya. Zane expects a close fight where Cannonier's power wins out over Vettori's durability and output.

"I'm going to stick with Cannoneer."
WIN vs Roman Dolidze
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · Mar 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marvin Vettori 0 106 of 218 48% 106 of 218 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Roman Dolidze 0 71 of 192 36% 71 of 192 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marvin Vettori 0 38 of 75 50% 38 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Roman Dolidze 0 29 of 71 40% 29 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Marvin Vettori 0 28 of 69 40% 28 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Roman Dolidze 0 16 of 50 32% 16 of 50 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:05
3 Marvin Vettori 0 40 of 74 54% 40 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Roman Dolidze 0 26 of 71 36% 26 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marvin Vettori 106 of 218 48% 60 of 165 8 of 13 38 of 40 100 of 212 6 of 6 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 71 of 192 36% 52 of 169 11 of 15 8 of 8 67 of 180 4 of 12 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marvin Vettori 38 of 75 50% 24 of 60 2 of 3 12 of 12 35 of 72 3 of 3 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 29 of 71 40% 20 of 62 3 of 3 6 of 6 29 of 69 0 of 2 0 of 0
2 Marvin Vettori 28 of 69 40% 11 of 48 3 of 6 14 of 15 28 of 69 0 of 0 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 16 of 50 32% 12 of 44 3 of 5 1 of 1 16 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Marvin Vettori 40 of 74 54% 25 of 57 3 of 4 12 of 13 37 of 71 3 of 3 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 26 of 71 36% 20 of 63 5 of 7 1 of 1 22 of 61 4 of 10 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

Angelo picks Vettori because of his cement chin, incredible cardio, and submission defense. He thinks Dolidze will fade and cannot take Vettori down. He notes Dolidze's takedowns are trash and his only path is a submission, but Vettori's submission defense is good enough. He has a bet on Dolidze inside distance (decision no action) as a hedge.

bet on Dolidze inside distance (decision no action)
"I think Marvin wins I'm not betting actually I do have a bet and the BET's on Roman Romans leads inside the distance decision no action."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

Big Brady picks Vettori, citing his higher output (4.20 vs 2.62 significant strikes per minute) and durability (never knocked out). He questions Dolidze's path to victory, as Vettori is tough to finish and Dolidze has low volume. He predicts a decision win, but notes the odds are surprising and he may look for a prop instead.

maybe a prop will stick out
"I'm gonna go vittori to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

Cody picks Vettori, arguing Dolidze is a 'comeback kid' who relies on finishing but fades in longer fights. He notes Dolidze's low volume and poor cardio, while Vettori is durable, has solid wrestling, and good cardio. He thinks Vettori wins by decision, possibly with takedowns. He says minus 270 isn't bad and likes Vettori by decision prop.

Marvin Vettori by decision, Vettori over 1.5 takedowns (PrizePicks)
"I feel like Victoria's got him beat out everywhere... probably more of a decision kind of performance... minus 270 he doesn't sound great but some of these favorites you're gonna have to trust"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2023 (fight day)
Marvin Vettori

Connor picks Vettori for his consistency and durability. He notes that Vettori is a roundly solid fighter who doesn't get submitted or knocked out, and he maintains a steady output of one-twos. Dolidze is more of a wild athlete who relies on flashy moments but lacks process. Connor points out that Jack Hermansson was dominating Dolidze before collapsing, and Vettori is a tougher matchup because he won't break. He thinks Vettori's pace and durability will overwhelm Dolidze, who cannot craft a game plan to break Vettori down.

Vettori opened -275, currently -297; Dolidze opened +235, currently +247
"Vittori is simply too meatheaded to lose to him."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Jacob picks Dolidze, believing Vettori is an emotional idiot who will eventually shoot a takedown and get submitted. He thinks Vettori has no power and Dolidze can land a big shot. He notes Dolidze is undefeated except for a fight where Jacob picked against him. He is riding the Dolidze train until it falls off.

"I think the fight goes to the ground eventually Roman finds his sweep and finds a submission on this knucklehead fighter."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

Vettori is a strong grappler with good clinch work and durability, though his striking is still developing. Dolidze is on a four-fight winning streak with knockout power, but his striking is technically lacking and he can be reckless. Vettori should weather early storms and use his wrestling to control the fight, likely winning a decision. The minus 300 line is a bit steep but the skill gap is clear.

"I really believe the avatory should have little to no issue in this matchup"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Vettori. He notes Dolidze's volume is so low that an elite fighter should be able to do what Jack Hermansson did and extend it over 15 minutes. He likes Vettori by decision at minus 120 and says Dolidze has never been finished but Vettori can outpoint him.

Marvin Vettori by decision
"vittori by decision definitely has my interest this week"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

The MMA Guru picks Marvin Vettori over Roman Dolidze, despite Vettori's sometimes questionable game plans. He notes Dolidze is dangerous on the ground but has poor striking and was easily picked apart by Jack Hermansson on the feet. Vettori outstruck Hermansson and stuffed his takedowns, so he should do the same to Dolidze. He predicts a 30-27 decision for Vettori, warning that if Vettori shoots takedowns he deserves to lose.

Vettori wins by decision 30-27
"I'm gonna go with Marvin vittori over Roman the Lindsay here"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2023 (fight day)
Marvin Vettori

Zane agrees with Connor, emphasizing Vettori's block-headed consistency. He notes that Vettori doesn't collapse when outsmarted; he just keeps coming. Dolidze is a flashy fighter but lacks the technical foundation to break Vettori down. Zane also mentions that Vettori's takedown defense and ability to stop takedowns are solid. He thinks Dolidze's best chance is a lucky shot, but Vettori's durability and pace will carry him to a decision win.

Vettori opened -275, currently -297; Dolidze opened +235, currently +247
"If Marvin Vittori collapsed every time he was outsmarted, you'd never make it out of bed."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuivasa · Sep 03, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Robert Whittaker 0 74 of 166 44% 74 of 166 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:12
Marvin Vettori 0 33 of 116 28% 38 of 121 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Robert Whittaker 0 22 of 56 39% 22 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marvin Vettori 0 14 of 41 34% 16 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
2 Robert Whittaker 0 25 of 53 47% 25 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marvin Vettori 0 10 of 45 22% 11 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
3 Robert Whittaker 0 27 of 57 47% 27 of 57 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:12
Marvin Vettori 0 9 of 30 30% 11 of 32 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:12
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Robert Whittaker 74 of 166 44% 49 of 138 6 of 9 19 of 19 72 of 163 0 of 0 2 of 3
Marvin Vettori 33 of 116 28% 15 of 94 7 of 10 11 of 12 33 of 116 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Robert Whittaker 22 of 56 39% 15 of 48 1 of 2 6 of 6 22 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marvin Vettori 14 of 41 34% 6 of 33 5 of 5 3 of 3 14 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Robert Whittaker 25 of 53 47% 17 of 43 3 of 5 5 of 5 25 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marvin Vettori 10 of 45 22% 4 of 36 1 of 3 5 of 6 10 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Robert Whittaker 27 of 57 47% 17 of 47 2 of 2 8 of 8 25 of 54 0 of 0 2 of 3
Marvin Vettori 9 of 30 30% 5 of 25 1 of 2 3 of 3 9 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 27, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Angelo picks Robert Whittaker easily, citing his speed, cleaner striking, five-round cardio, and improved grappling. He notes Vettori has a brick head and is hard to finish, so he expects a decision win. He has a moneyline bet on Whittaker at -235 and says the line has moved to -300s.

Moneyline bet placed at -235; line moved to -300s; likely decision win
"whitaker is an easy pick here he's going to be faster have the far cleaner striking"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker to win by decision. He argues that Whittaker has phenomenal takedown defense and get-up game, so the fight will stay on the feet where Whittaker is the better striker. He notes that Vettori has a granite chin and has never been knocked out, so a finish is unlikely, but Whittaker should outpoint him comfortably.

"i think whitaker does does win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Cody picks Robert Whittaker, arguing that Whittaker is at his best against aggressive fighters who come forward, as he becomes the counter puncher. He notes that Vettori is a 'junkyard dog' who will brawl, but Whittaker's precision, volume, and ability to make mid-round adjustments will be decisive. Cody also points out that Vettori is not a power puncher, so Whittaker's suspect chin is less of a concern, and that the fight is three rounds, which favors Whittaker's cardio. He recommends Whittaker by decision to improve the -210 price.

Whittaker wins by decision
"I'd take Robert Whittaker... the over under set 280 I think to the over and yeah I think this thing's going a decision so if you want to try to improve that 210 price tag on Robert Whittaker almost certainly …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Daniel Levi picks Robert Whittaker but expresses hesitation, citing concerns about Whittaker's motivation after two title losses and potential drop-off. He acknowledges Vettori's hunger and mental strength, but believes Whittaker is technically superior. He notes that Whittaker has been hurt in recent fights and that Vettori could potentially finish him, but ultimately leans on the chalk. He does not bet the fight himself.

Fight goes to decision; Vettori by KO at +1200 (mentioned by co-host)
"I'm gonna go Whitaker but I'm just sketched about it because at some point I think that drop-off will come I just don't know when it's gonna be"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

The host is confident in Whittaker, citing his superior athleticism, striking, wrestling, and overall skill. He expects Whittaker to stay at range, land leg kicks, and possibly secure takedowns. He prefers the decision prop at minus 105, as Vettori is durable and hard to finish.

Whittaker by decision (minus 105)
"Give me Bobby Knuckles via decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

Paul leans toward Marvin Vettori as a slight underdog, citing Vettori's durability, forward pressure, and wrestling. He is concerned that Whittaker has been hurt many times and may be shopworn from wars with Yoel Romero and Israel Adesanya. Paul believes Vettori's volume and ability to grind out takedowns could be the difference, and that the line is closer than -215/+185. He admits he hasn't bet it yet and will see how weigh-ins go.

"I'm gonna lean ever so slightly to the dogma of inventory to pull off the upset here... I think marvin vittorio obviously is only three years younger but it's like in terms of like robert whittaker's 31 with city miles."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 29, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

The MMA Guru confidently picks Robert Whittaker over Marvin Vettori, stating that Vettori's main problem is talent and skill. He praises Whittaker's boxing ability, footwork, and evolution, noting his dominant win over Kelvin Gastelum. He believes Whittaker will outclass Vettori on the feet with teeps, leg kicks, jabs, and head kicks, and that Vettori won't be able to take him down or outgrapple him. He predicts a 30-27 unanimous decision for Whittaker, with Vettori complaining about the decision afterward.

Whittaker wins by decision 30-27
"i think the main problem that vettori has is talent and skill"
WIN vs Paulo Costa
Decision (unanimous) (48–46, 48–46, 48–46) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori · Oct 23, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marvin Vettori 0 163 of 260 62% 172 of 269 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:47
Paulo Costa 0 190 of 346 54% 214 of 373 1 of 5 20% 0 0 3:27
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marvin Vettori 0 35 of 53 66% 35 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paulo Costa 0 39 of 68 57% 42 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
2 Marvin Vettori 0 36 of 65 55% 36 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paulo Costa 0 40 of 80 50% 40 of 80 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:22
3 Marvin Vettori 0 17 of 29 58% 19 of 31 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:24
Paulo Costa 0 31 of 55 56% 47 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:27
4 Marvin Vettori 0 30 of 47 63% 32 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paulo Costa 0 49 of 81 60% 53 of 85 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:30
5 Marvin Vettori 0 45 of 66 68% 50 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Paulo Costa 0 31 of 62 50% 32 of 63 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:59
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marvin Vettori 163 of 260 62% 82 of 174 67 of 72 14 of 14 154 of 249 5 of 5 4 of 6
Paulo Costa 190 of 346 54% 154 of 307 33 of 36 3 of 3 168 of 316 21 of 29 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marvin Vettori 35 of 53 66% 13 of 29 18 of 20 4 of 4 34 of 52 1 of 1 0 of 0
Paulo Costa 39 of 68 57% 34 of 62 5 of 6 0 of 0 37 of 66 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Marvin Vettori 36 of 65 55% 14 of 42 18 of 19 4 of 4 35 of 64 1 of 1 0 of 0
Paulo Costa 40 of 80 50% 29 of 69 10 of 10 1 of 1 36 of 72 4 of 8 0 of 0
3 Marvin Vettori 17 of 29 58% 13 of 24 3 of 4 1 of 1 14 of 24 0 of 0 3 of 5
Paulo Costa 31 of 55 56% 23 of 46 7 of 8 1 of 1 27 of 51 3 of 3 1 of 1
4 Marvin Vettori 30 of 47 63% 16 of 32 11 of 12 3 of 3 28 of 45 2 of 2 0 of 0
Paulo Costa 49 of 81 60% 41 of 73 7 of 7 1 of 1 38 of 66 11 of 15 0 of 0
5 Marvin Vettori 45 of 66 68% 26 of 47 17 of 17 2 of 2 43 of 64 1 of 1 1 of 1
Paulo Costa 31 of 62 50% 27 of 57 4 of 5 0 of 0 30 of 61 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Oct 20, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

Angelo finds this a very tough pick. He initially had Costa but flipped to Vettori because Vettori has more ways to win (grappling, durability). He notes Vettori's takedown accuracy is under 50% and he struggles to keep people down, while Costa has 80% takedown defense. He's worried Vettori will get sucked into a striking match. He ultimately picks Vettori but is not confident. He loves a prop bet on Costa: 'wins inside the distance, decision no action' at -110, meaning if Costa wins by KO he gets paid, if he loses a decision he gets a refund.

loves Costa wins inside distance, decision no action at -110; likes more/more on monkey knife fight (over 117.5 combined strikes)
"i love the palo costa wins inside the distance decision no action bet"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

Big Brady picks Vettori to survive Costa's early storm and win late, citing Vettori's durability, five-round experience, and never-been-KO'd record. He notes Costa's takedown defense (80%) and strength make him hard to take down, but believes Vettori's wrestling and cardio will prevail in later rounds. He predicts a fifth-round TKO or submission.

fifth round TKO or submission
"i'm gonna say marvin vittori does win i'm gonna say like a fifth round either a tko or a sub"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 21, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

Cody picks Marvin Vettori, expecting to get a better live price after Vettori likely drops the first round. He highlights Vettori's durability, cardio, and experience in five-round fights, contrasting with Costa's questionable cardio and history of gassing. Cody notes Costa's impressive pressure against Yoel Romero but points out his poor performance against Adesanya and his tendency to fade after two rounds. He believes Vettori can take over in rounds 3-5 and recommends betting live after the first round.

Bet live after first round; expects better odds if Vettori drops round 1
"i feel like i want to go with marvin vittori but we're going to get a much better price on him live after he likely drops the first round"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Marvin Vettori

Lock picks Vettori based on durability and cardio advantage. He notes Costa's cardio drops after 8 minutes and Vettori's pace will take over late. He expects Vettori to survive early onslaught and finish in rounds 3-5. He also likes Vettori inside the distance and round props.

Vettori inside the distance +250, Vettori round 3 +1100, round 4 +1700, round 5 +2500, under 4.5 rounds -128
"i do like the vitoria line here i don't even mind him up to that minus 200 miles to 20 point because i think his durability will come through and then his cardio will be the beneficiary"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Oct 21, 2021 (2 days before fight)

Paul initially leans towards Costa but is swayed by Cody's reasoning. He acknowledges Vettori's durability and chin, but also notes Costa's power and the possibility of a knockout. Paul suggests that if betting Costa, the knockout prop at +225 is the way to go. He ultimately agrees that waiting for live markets is the best approach, but does not commit to a clear pick.

Costa by KO +225
"i was thinking costa because i'm just not entirely sure that marvin can just out grapple him early on"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

The MMA Guru picks Marvin Vettori, citing Costa's questionable cardio and mindset after his first KO loss. He believes Vettori's durability, pressure, and activity will allow him to take over in the later rounds. He predicts a rear-naked choke finish in round 4, drawing parallels to Vettori's fight with Omari Akhmedov.

rear naked choke round 4
"i'm going with marvin vittori here as a slight favorite in the main events and i reckon he gets this one done over paulo costa as the rounds go on"
Jack Hermansson - Fight History
KO R1 2:46 · UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · Nov 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jack Hermansson 0 19 of 38 50% 19 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Myktybek Orolbai 1 15 of 33 45% 15 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jack Hermansson 0 19 of 38 50% 19 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Myktybek Orolbai 1 15 of 33 45% 15 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jack Hermansson 19 of 38 50% 9 of 25 5 of 8 5 of 5 17 of 36 2 of 2 0 of 0
Myktybek Orolbai 15 of 33 45% 9 of 25 3 of 5 3 of 3 13 of 31 1 of 1 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jack Hermansson 19 of 38 50% 9 of 25 5 of 8 5 of 5 17 of 36 2 of 2 0 of 0
Myktybek Orolbai 15 of 33 45% 9 of 25 3 of 5 3 of 3 13 of 31 1 of 1 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Angelo picks Myktybek Orolbai over Jack Hermansson, calling it a life savings on the caveman. He describes Orolbai as a fun grappler with non-stop pressure, cardio, and power, while Hermansson is an aging welterweight moving down in weight, which weakens his chin and cardio. Orolbai's game plan is simple: takedown, smash, win.

"Moto Beck wins this fight. A 37-year-old welterweight Jack Herman Manson is not winning this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Big Brady picks Myktybek Orolbai (Mairbek Tukhugov) by first-round knockout, citing Hermansson's recent brutal KO loss and quick turnaround. He questions Hermansson's chin and weight cut to welterweight, expecting Orolbai to land a big shot and finish him early.

first round knockout
"Give me Mairbek to win. Mairbek to win by first round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

Cody picks Jack Hermansson confidently, pending weight cut. He notes that Orolbai is one-dimensional, a weight bully who relies on takedowns but has poor striking defense. Jack has a reach advantage, excellent wrestling, and BJJ. Cody believes Jack can stuff takedowns and outwork Orolbai, who gasses and gets hit a lot.

"I got Jack Manson as well, but pending that he makes the weight and he looks good on the scales."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Nov 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Connor picks Orolbai, citing his physicality and grinding style as a problem for Hermansson. He notes that Hermansson is making a drastic weight cut to welterweight, which often fails at this career stage. Connor acknowledges Hermansson's win over Joe Pyfer but sees Orolbai's natural size and aggression as decisive.

Orolbai by decision or late finish
"I think I'll trust my instincts and take a Ralby. He's basically been fighting as a welterweight already."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Lucrative James picks Myktybek Orolbai, citing the weight class advantage (Orolbai moving up from 155, Hermansson cutting from 185). He believes Orolbai has better striking power, durability, and grappling. He notes Hermansson's recent KO loss and questionable chin. He predicts Orolbai will win, possibly by knockout.

"I'm going to take Mick Tbec or buy for this one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 18, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Orolbai is a pressure grappler with solid cardio and finishing ability. Hermansson is dropping to welterweight at 37, with durability concerns and a long layoff. Orolbai should overwhelm Hermansson and finish him via TKO or submission.

Orolbai inside the distance
"I'm going to go MTAC Oro by inside the distance."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

Paul picks Jack Hermansson, noting that Orolbai is moving up to welterweight and has struggled with bigger opponents. Jack is a natural welterweight with good wrestling and submission skills. Paul believes Jack's experience and size will be too much for Orolbai, who has poor cardio and striking defense.

"I like if Jack looks good on the scales on Friday, Cody, I'm gonna have a tough time not pulling the trigger on Jack at like plus 200."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

The MMA Guru picks Myktybek Orolbai over Jack Hermansson, believing Orolbai's speed and technique will overcome Hermansson's size. He notes Hermansson's KO loss and weight cut to welterweight. He trusts Orolbai's grappling defense and offensive submissions, predicting a win.

"I'm going to go with Myktybek Orolbai beating Jack Hermansson."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Nov 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

Zane picks Hermansson, betting that his size and strength at welterweight will be enough to control Orolbai. He notes that Orolbai's success depends on physicality, and if Hermansson is too strong, Orolbai's one-dimensional pressure will fail. Zane admits it's a risky pick given Hermansson's recent losses.

Hermansson by decision; weight cut could be a factor
"I'm gonna take the flyer on her Manson just being big enough to control this fight and kind of you know, survive a mess."
KO R1 4:21 · UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · Jun 28, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jack Hermansson 0 30 of 55 54% 30 of 55 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Gregory Rodrigues 1 18 of 63 28% 18 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jack Hermansson 0 30 of 55 54% 30 of 55 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Gregory Rodrigues 1 18 of 63 28% 18 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jack Hermansson 30 of 55 54% 24 of 49 2 of 2 4 of 4 30 of 54 0 of 1 0 of 0
Gregory Rodrigues 18 of 63 28% 11 of 54 6 of 8 1 of 1 18 of 63 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jack Hermansson 30 of 55 54% 24 of 49 2 of 2 4 of 4 30 of 54 0 of 1 0 of 0
Gregory Rodrigues 18 of 63 28% 11 of 54 6 of 8 1 of 1 18 of 63 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 22, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Angelo leans Gregory Rodrigues because he believes Rodrigues's power and early success will carry him in a three-round fight, despite his cardio issues. He compares it to Jack Hermansson's win over Joe Pyfer, where Hermansson survived early and took over, but notes that Rodrigues's loss to Jared Cannonier was in the fourth round and Cannonier hits harder. He is cautious because Rodrigues is a -180 favorite with cardio concerns, and he suggests the over 1.5 rounds might be a good bet.

Angelo mentions he is interested in the over 1.5 rounds line if available, and notes that -180 for a guy who just got finished due to cardio is risky.
"Gregory Rodrigues is going to be the pick. I'm a little iffy on bets. Well, maybe we get a one-and-a-half round line."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Big Brady likes Rodrigues stylistically, noting his power advantage over Hermansson. He thinks Hermansson's best path is wrestling, but Rodrigues has good takedown defense and is a BJJ black belt. Brady expects the fight to stay standing, where Rodrigues will land harder shots. He references Marvin Vettori knocking down Hermansson as evidence of his chin vulnerability, and picks Rodrigues by second-round knockout.

Rodrigues wins by second round knockout
"I'm going to take Rodriguez to win this fight by second round knockout."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

The host notes Hermansson's long layoff and believes Rodrigues will dictate the pace with power punching and ground control, winning on the scorecards.

win on scorecards
"I think the Rodriguez will be able to dictate the pace with his power punching, but also an ability to take this fight to the ground and grind out Herman Manson leading to Rodriguez winning this fight on the scorecards."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

The host picks Gregory Rodrigues, citing his activity and more intricate striking compared to Hermansson's last opponent. He believes Rodrigues' grappling is good enough to neutralize Hermansson's, and that Hermansson's long layoff is a concern. He predicts a TKO win for Rodrigues in the first or second round.

TKO
"I'm going to go with him over Jack Manson here just because of recency. Like he's on the grind, he's on the hustle, he's on the come up."
WIN vs Joe Pyfer
Decision (unanimous) (48–47, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · Feb 10, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jack Hermansson 0 121 of 235 51% 188 of 327 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:08
Joe Pyfer 0 92 of 250 36% 95 of 254 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:50
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jack Hermansson 0 16 of 38 42% 16 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joe Pyfer 0 24 of 58 41% 24 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jack Hermansson 0 19 of 38 50% 19 of 38 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
Joe Pyfer 0 22 of 60 36% 22 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jack Hermansson 0 37 of 69 53% 43 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joe Pyfer 0 20 of 65 30% 20 of 65 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
4 Jack Hermansson 0 33 of 57 57% 58 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joe Pyfer 0 22 of 46 47% 23 of 48 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:50
5 Jack Hermansson 0 16 of 33 48% 52 of 90 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:01
Joe Pyfer 0 4 of 21 19% 6 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jack Hermansson 121 of 235 51% 74 of 174 15 of 23 32 of 38 111 of 219 5 of 6 5 of 10
Joe Pyfer 92 of 250 36% 56 of 196 25 of 34 11 of 20 92 of 250 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jack Hermansson 16 of 38 42% 3 of 21 8 of 9 5 of 8 16 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joe Pyfer 24 of 58 41% 11 of 41 9 of 10 4 of 7 24 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jack Hermansson 19 of 38 50% 11 of 28 1 of 3 7 of 7 19 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joe Pyfer 22 of 60 36% 11 of 45 9 of 10 2 of 5 22 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jack Hermansson 37 of 69 53% 25 of 54 4 of 7 8 of 8 33 of 64 4 of 5 0 of 0
Joe Pyfer 20 of 65 30% 12 of 54 4 of 7 4 of 4 20 of 65 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Jack Hermansson 33 of 57 57% 21 of 41 2 of 3 10 of 13 32 of 56 1 of 1 0 of 0
Joe Pyfer 22 of 46 47% 19 of 39 2 of 4 1 of 3 22 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Jack Hermansson 16 of 33 48% 14 of 30 0 of 1 2 of 2 11 of 23 0 of 0 5 of 10
Joe Pyfer 4 of 21 19% 3 of 17 1 of 3 0 of 1 4 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 4, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Angelo acknowledges Jack Hermansson's grappling credentials but notes his low takedown accuracy (29%). Joe Pyfer has incredible power, good wrestling, and has trained with high-level grapplers, including a win over Gerald Meerschaert. Angelo believes Pyfer is the real deal and that this is a perfect stepping stone fight. He suggests betting or parlaying Pyfer.

could bet and parlay Joey P
"I think Joe's the real deal and I think this is a perfect stepping stone type fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Big Brady picks Joe Pyfer to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Pyfer has dynamite in his hands and hits like a truck, while Hermansson has been knocked out before and struggles to get fights to the mat. He thinks the small cage favors Pyfer's pressure, and he expects Pyfer to knock Hermansson out early. He acknowledges Hermansson's cardio and grappling but believes Pyfer's power is the difference.

first round knockout
"I'm going to take Joe Piper to win this fight and I think he knocks him out in the first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

Cody sees value in Hermansson as a plus money underdog. He questions Pyfer's cardio and five-round experience, noting Pyfer has never fought three rounds and relies on early finishes against lower-level competition. Hermansson has proven volume and cardio over five rounds, with wins over Chris Curtis and competitive fights with Strickland and Vettori. Cody believes Pyfer's -260 price is too high given the unknowns, making Hermansson a clear dogger pass pick.

"I'm certainly tempted in a Hermansson bet... minus 260 just seems off to me."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Feb 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

Hermansson is a tough veteran with a grappling-heavy approach and good durability. He should be able to weather Pyfer's early power and then take over with his grinding style, potentially winning by decision or late stoppage. Pyfer's cardio is untested against a durable opponent. However, Hermansson is coming off a knee injury, and Pyfer has youth and power. Low confidence pick.

"I have to lean ever so slightly to the veteran here in Jack romanson I have my question marks due to the injuries that he's coming back from uh the the youth advantage of Joe pyer here as well uh …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

Paul agrees with Cody, calling Hermansson a clear dogger pass. He notes Pyfer's lack of five-round experience and that Hermansson has multiple tools and paths to victory. Paul points out that if the fight goes deep, Hermansson's cardio and volume will be decisive. He also mentions that Pyfer could win by early knockout, but the value is on Hermansson at plus money.

"at plus 220 yeah I think it's pretty clearly a pass type of situation"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

The MMA Guru picks Joe Pyfer with high confidence, citing Pyfer's knockout power and grappling ability. He notes Pyfer's impressive KO of Gerald Meerschaert and his performance against Abdul Razak Alhassan, where Alhassan seemed scared. He believes Pyfer can put away Hermansson, who he criticizes for losing to Roman Dolidze. He predicts a first-round KO.

first round KO
"Joe pyer is going to absolutely obliterate him round one KO... pyer by KO."
LOSS vs Roman Dolidze
TKO (punches) R2 4:06 · UFC on ESPN: Thompson vs. Holland · Dec 03, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Roman Dolidze 0 47 of 79 59% 48 of 80 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:52
Jack Hermansson 0 25 of 54 46% 39 of 73 0 of 0 --- 3 0 0:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Roman Dolidze 0 25 of 40 62% 26 of 41 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:06
Jack Hermansson 0 4 of 16 25% 7 of 19 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:02
2 Roman Dolidze 0 22 of 39 56% 22 of 39 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:46
Jack Hermansson 0 21 of 38 55% 32 of 54 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:28
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Roman Dolidze 47 of 79 59% 16 of 41 11 of 16 20 of 22 43 of 74 3 of 4 1 of 1
Jack Hermansson 25 of 54 46% 23 of 51 2 of 3 0 of 0 12 of 38 1 of 1 12 of 15
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Roman Dolidze 25 of 40 62% 6 of 16 6 of 9 13 of 15 23 of 37 1 of 2 1 of 1
Jack Hermansson 4 of 16 25% 3 of 14 1 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 15 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Roman Dolidze 22 of 39 56% 10 of 25 5 of 7 7 of 7 20 of 37 2 of 2 0 of 0
Jack Hermansson 21 of 38 55% 20 of 37 1 of 1 0 of 0 9 of 23 1 of 1 11 of 14
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 27, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Angelo picks Roman Dolidze, calling him a world champion grappler with real power. He notes Dolidze's impressive recent win over Phil Hawes, where he showed both submission and KO ability. He thinks Hermansson is a good grappler but not on Dolidze's level, and lacks power in his striking. He expects Dolidze to be the favorite by fight night and has a moneyline bet on him.

Has a moneyline bet on Dolidze; notes short notice but Dolidze has stepped up before
"I like Roman Deliza here I got him at plus money I have a money line bet on him"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

Big Brady is confident in Hermansson, citing his underrated striking, improved cardio, and superior grappling. He notes Dolidze's poor takedown defense (33%) and short-notice fight, expecting Hermansson to win exchanges on the feet, mix in takedowns, and finish a tired Dolidze in the second round by submission. He mentions Hermansson's dominant win over Chris Curtis as evidence.

Hermansson wins by submission, round 2
"I think Jacker Manson is going to be the second one to ever finish Roma to Lindsay here... second round submission for Jack Romancing"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

Cody agrees, highlighting Hermansson's high output and Dolidze's low volume. He thinks Hermansson can win by decision or even submission, and prefers Hermansson by decision. He notes Dolidze's power but doubts he can land cleanly.

Hermansson by decision; Hermansson over 56.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"I think he pushes a pretty decent pace and as he's getting a little bit older he realizes maybe not the greatest chin maybe not the most uh not the most power so why hang it in the pocket and …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Nov 30, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

Daniel Levi leans Hermansson as a pure pick, citing his better competition, improved striking, and ground-and-pound. However, he notes Dolidze's danger everywhere and calls it a dog-or-pass situation at the current line. He might bet Dolidze if the line widens to +200 or more.

"I lean Jack but minus 190 is not a lean Jack minus 150 is Eileen Jack and actually minus 150 is where Vegas opened and I thought that was pretty appropriate so at this line I actually do think it's …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Nov 29, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

The host picks Hermansson but is not confident due to Dolidze's tendency to pull off upsets. He thinks Hermansson will dictate the fight with clinching and striking from the outside, similar to his win over Chris Curtis. He likes the over 2.5 rounds as a bet, expecting a slow-paced fight. He warns that Dolidze is a wild man who could finish if he smells blood.

over 2.5 rounds
"I'll still go with her Manson as my prediction I'm gonna take the over two and a half likely as a bet"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

Paul thinks Hermansson has Dolidze covered everywhere. He notes Dolidze's low volume and Hermansson's output advantage. He expects Hermansson to keep the fight standing and use his reach and cardio to win a decision or possibly get a finish.

Hermansson over 56.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"I think minus 200 is a pretty fair price on Jack romance in this week"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

The MMA Guru picks Jack Hermansson, citing his superior experience and grappling. He thinks Dolidze's recent wins are over lesser competition and that Hermansson's leg kicks and pressure will be key. He predicts Hermansson will take over in the later rounds and win a decision.

Hermansson by decision (29-28)
"I'm going Jack commandsum"
WIN vs Chris Curtis
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · Jul 23, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jack Hermansson 0 100 of 251 39% 100 of 251 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:00
Chris Curtis 0 43 of 125 34% 43 of 125 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jack Hermansson 0 21 of 65 32% 21 of 65 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Chris Curtis 0 7 of 28 25% 7 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jack Hermansson 0 45 of 108 41% 45 of 108 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Chris Curtis 0 16 of 40 40% 16 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jack Hermansson 0 34 of 78 43% 34 of 78 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Chris Curtis 0 20 of 57 35% 20 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jack Hermansson 100 of 251 39% 48 of 176 25 of 45 27 of 30 99 of 246 1 of 5 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 43 of 125 34% 18 of 89 25 of 35 0 of 1 41 of 123 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jack Hermansson 21 of 65 32% 7 of 42 3 of 10 11 of 13 21 of 63 0 of 2 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 7 of 28 25% 3 of 23 4 of 5 0 of 0 7 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jack Hermansson 45 of 108 41% 26 of 80 10 of 18 9 of 10 44 of 105 1 of 3 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 16 of 40 40% 5 of 24 11 of 16 0 of 0 16 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jack Hermansson 34 of 78 43% 15 of 54 12 of 17 7 of 7 34 of 78 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 20 of 57 35% 10 of 42 10 of 14 0 of 1 18 of 55 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jul 17, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Angelo has a slight lean towards Chris Curtis but expresses buyer's remorse after betting on him. He notes Curtis has good boxing and takedown defense, but gassed in his last fight against Rodolfo Vieira and was outstruck. He points out Jack Hermansson went 0 for 8 on takedowns against Sean Strickland but still won rounds on some scorecards, meaning he can strike. He says the pick might change by fight day.

moneyline bet placed
"i'm still going to have a very like very slight lean towards chris here because jack's takedowns are just awful"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Big Brady picks Chris Curtis to win by decision. He notes Curtis has shown improved takedown defense (stuffing all 20 of Rodolfo Vieira's attempts). On the feet, Curtis has the striking advantage. If Hermansson can't take him down, Curtis should outpoint him in a competitive decision. He acknowledges Hermansson's ground game is dangerous if he gets takedowns.

Curtis by decision
"give me chris curtis for the win here i'm to go with chris curtis to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Cody is confident in Chris Curtis, citing his excellent cardio, takedown defense, and boxing. He argues that Hermansson's best volume comes in championship rounds, but this is a three-round fight. Cody notes Hermansson has been knocked out by punchers and dropped by Marvin Vettori, while Curtis has power and volume. He also mentions Curtis' training with Sean Strickland and his ability to stuff takedowns. Cody believes Curtis will keep the fight standing and box Hermansson up.

over 76.5 fantasy score on PrizePicks
"i'm gonna take chris curtis again i actually will and i'm not don't know if action man's going to knock him out or win a decision i couldn't tell you a straight prop"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

Daniel Levi leans towards Jack Hermansson, citing his top-level experience and dangerous ground game, particularly his guillotine choke. He acknowledges Chris Curtis's improved takedown defense and boxing, but questions whether Curtis can handle the step up in competition. Levi notes that Hermansson has been in there with the best and has a lot of heart, but also wonders if Hermansson still has the hunger after recent setbacks. He thinks Hermansson can find opportunistic takedowns and use his ground and pound to win.

Mentions that he missed out on Hermansson at +110, implying he would have bet at that price.
"i lean her manson in this fight man i think he can get back on track as long as he's still into this"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

Hermansson is too big and strong for Curtis. He will drag the fight to the ground and control him. Curtis defended 20 takedowns against Adolfo Vieira, but Vieira is a jiu-jitsu player, not a wrestler. Hermansson's wrestling is elite. Curtis will realize he should have stayed at 170.

"I'm going to be on her Mansion I'll likely have a decent bet on him as well"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

Paul picks Jack Hermansson, feeling the line is too close and that there may be too much hype on Chris Curtis. He notes Hermansson is a legitimate pounder with great cardio, excellent wrestling, and complete skills. Paul acknowledges Curtis has been a cash printing machine but thinks this step up in competition might be too much. He wants to hear Cody's take before making any action.

"i'm picking her manson i wanted to hear obviously what the curtis whisperer had to say before i made any action on this though"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

The MMA Guru picks Chris Curtis to win by decision. He praises Curtis's grappling defense, as seen against Rodolfo Vieira. Hermansson will have success with takedowns early but will slow down. Curtis will land body shots and knees, pulling away in the last two rounds for a 29-28 decision.

29-28 decision
"i'm gonna go if chris curtis getting this one done in the second and third round 29-28 chris curtis says sir manson slows down"
LOSS vs Sean Strickland
Decision (split) (49–46, 47–48, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland · Feb 05, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sean Strickland 0 137 of 353 38% 137 of 353 0 of 8 0% 0 0 0:31
Jack Hermansson 0 153 of 330 46% 161 of 338 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sean Strickland 0 26 of 47 55% 26 of 47 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Jack Hermansson 0 22 of 51 43% 24 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Sean Strickland 0 32 of 70 45% 32 of 70 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Jack Hermansson 0 32 of 77 41% 32 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Sean Strickland 0 26 of 75 34% 26 of 75 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Jack Hermansson 0 27 of 59 45% 27 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Sean Strickland 0 27 of 78 34% 27 of 78 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:18
Jack Hermansson 0 34 of 67 50% 37 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Sean Strickland 0 26 of 83 31% 26 of 83 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:13
Jack Hermansson 0 38 of 76 50% 41 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sean Strickland 137 of 353 38% 22 of 194 64 of 105 51 of 54 134 of 350 3 of 3 0 of 0
Jack Hermansson 153 of 330 46% 125 of 286 24 of 40 4 of 4 151 of 328 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sean Strickland 26 of 47 55% 4 of 15 11 of 20 11 of 12 25 of 46 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jack Hermansson 22 of 51 43% 19 of 46 3 of 5 0 of 0 20 of 49 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Sean Strickland 32 of 70 45% 3 of 35 15 of 21 14 of 14 31 of 69 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jack Hermansson 32 of 77 41% 22 of 65 10 of 12 0 of 0 32 of 77 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Sean Strickland 26 of 75 34% 4 of 43 9 of 19 13 of 13 26 of 75 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jack Hermansson 27 of 59 45% 22 of 49 5 of 10 0 of 0 27 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Sean Strickland 27 of 78 34% 6 of 47 13 of 22 8 of 9 26 of 77 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jack Hermansson 34 of 67 50% 30 of 58 2 of 7 2 of 2 34 of 67 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Sean Strickland 26 of 83 31% 5 of 54 16 of 23 5 of 6 26 of 83 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jack Hermansson 38 of 76 50% 32 of 68 4 of 6 2 of 2 38 of 76 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jack Hermansson vs. Sean Strickland

Round 1
Top-10 middleweights come to blows for the marquee matchup atop UFC Fight Night 200, with possible championship implications in play. “The Joker” Hermansson (22-6, 9-4 UFC) will try to blunt the momentum of the fast-swinging “Tarzan” Strickland (24-3, 11-3 UFC) in a clear-cut style matchup of a savvy grappler against a solid striker. Referee Herb Dean draws the final assignment of the evening, and he may have his hands full depending on where the fight goes. The gloves are touched, the fighters are ready, and it’s time for some action. The middleweights meet in the middle, and Hermansson lands first with a leg kick. Strickland checks the second one that comes to that target, and he flicks out a few jabs as Hermansson comes towards him. Strickland pops out his jab to split the guard repeatedly, and he blocks one from Hermansson but does not block the sweeping low kick. Strickland keeps his jab flowing, and he gets forced to fight off a takedown effort about a minute into the round. Strickland backs up to the fence, keeping himself upright, while Hermansson goes low for a single. Hermansson hooks the leg between his own, and Strickland defends with a few body shots but gets wrenched down to his hands and knees. “Tarzan” swings right back up to his feet, and Hermansson holds him from behind against the wire. Hermansson bails on the single so that he can knee the body, and he kicks Strickland’s calf on the way out. Strickland returns a jab, and Hermansson pushes one back that is far less snappy. Strickland blocks a body kick and is comfortable with his left jab finding the spot again and again. Strickland checks another leg kick, and Hermansson kicks it from the other side when he does. Strickland’s jab pierces the guard again and again, and he keeps at a safe range to dodge a three-punch salvo that swings his way. While Strickland powers out a jab, he eats a heavy body kick and a slapping inside low kick. Hermansson varies his targets while Strickland is primarily focused on sticking out a jab on the nose. Strickland follows a jab with a right, and Hermansson wears it well and replies with a low kick. The American opens up with another one-two, and it gives Hermansson pause for a moment but “The Joker” bites down on his mouthpiece and throws with a right hand and a leg kick. Strickland’s jab continues to find its home, and he adds in a front kick to the body. “Tarzan” dances out of the way of punches right at the end of the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Hermansson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Strickland

Round 2
The Swede comes out of his corner much more aggressively than the previous frame, swinging wildly with looping shots and heavier kicks. Strickland remains composed with his jabs and effective defense, checking the low kicks and blocking the bigger punches aimed at his head. They both trade strikes, and Hermansson rushes in with a combination that gets intercepted by a pair of punches. Hermansson hammers Strickland’s lead leg with another kick, and the calf is starting to change colors. Without setting it up, Hermansson ducks down for a takedown attempt, and Strickland shucks it off and pushes him aside. Strickland marches ahead with jabs and follow-up right hands, and he swats down a punch aimed at his face. Hermansson may be throwing harder, but the accuracy rate of his vicious strikes is low. Hermansson bites down on his mouthpiece to throw hands, and they begin to trade it out right in front of one another. Hermansson slugs Strickland in the face, and Strickland’s pace does not change that significantly, keeping to jabs and occasional twos. Hermansson has another takedown try stuffed with ease, allowing Strickland to get to his preferred range and smack him in the face with a jab and body with a right hand. Hermansson kicks the body, and Strickland does not register the blow as he checks a leg kick. Strickland picks out with punches and a single body kick, and Hermansson blitzes forward with a wide combination that mostly misses the mark. A heavy low kick connects for the Swede, but it is one-and-done as he backs away to reset. Strickland lands cleanly with a power jab, and he winds up with a power punch only for Hermansson to greet him with one of his own. They club one another in the face with big punches, and Strickland scores a few kicks to the body. Strickland sits back, avoids a punch and lets go with a right hand that knocks Hermansson cleanly off his feet. Strickland does not give chase, letting Hermansson up as the round comes to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Strickland

Round 3
Strickland’s jab starts off again in the round, as he stabs out his fist while Hermansson keeps a high, tight guard. Hermansson’s low kicks have ranging success, as some land cleanly while others get checked. The hand speed shifts in favor of Strickland, catching Hermansson on the way in when Hermansson loads up on powerful strikes. The kicks are marking Strickland’s legs up as well, but Strickland keeps a stiff upper lip and does not change his approach. Hermansson keeps the leg attack going as he eats punches, giving up jabs to land calf kicks. Hermansson tries to bob and weave, and Strickland’s accurate jab is able to still find the target as Hermansson’s face begins to change color. Hermansson sells out for a heavy body kick, and it pounds into Strickland’s liver. Strickland does not budget, and he proceeds to let loose a high kick that glances off Hermansson’s shoulder. “Tarzan” smoothly dodges punches while feeding Hermansson a steady diet of jabs, and he gets tagged with a looping left hand. Strickland gives it back with a body kick, allowing him to take a moment in case he needs to shake off the cobwebs. Hermansson’s variety is much more noteworthy than Strickland, as Strickland sticks to a few fundamentals while Hermansson is trying everything he can to close the distance and land with power punches. Strickland slips and moves, sticking Hermansson with jabs and occasionally mixing in a front kick. Strickland snipes Hermansson with a right hand, and he slings a high kick that is blocked just in the nick of time. They both trade heavy shots, with Strickland scoring a right hand while Hermansson gets off a head kick, and the third frame wraps.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Strickland

Round 4
The jab keeps right on coming from Strickland, but Hermansson is motivated to turn this into a wild brawl. The powerful punches of the Swede hit little but air, as Strickland calmly dodges and counters with jabs up the middle. Hermansson swings wide, using his forward momentum to go after a single-leg takedown, and Strickland keeps smart neck control by pushing Hermansson’s head down to fail on the attempt. The American is able to stop the try and gain some space, where he starts to add right hands in after stinging Hermansson with jabs. One such right hand stuns the Swede momentarily, but Hermansson shakes it off and throws back with bad intentions. Hermansson tries to punch around the jab, getting off a few right hands that loop around Strickland’s outstretched arm. Strickland doubles up on a jab, and Hermansson swings wild and goes wide. Strickland’s defensive nature does not put him into much danger, but it is damaging Hermansson to any noticeable degree. Strickland scores a leg kick, and he backs off as Hermansson goes for broke by ducking down and winging punches. Strickland does not absorb them and stays loose and light, jabbing out while windmilling punches go past him. Hermansson finally lands with a big right hand, but Strickland does not budge. Strickland continues to play the matador to Hermansson’s bull, and he pokes and prods Hermansson from a distance until the bell sounds. Both men appear to be bleeding after exchanges, with Strickland’s nose leaking while Hermansson has a cut under his right eye.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Strickland

Round 5
Sensing he is likely down on the scorecards, Hermansson attacks recklessly with whipping punches. Strickland’s composure never changes, with his jab and footwork keeping him safe from the majority of harm. On the other hand, Hermansson throws so hard he nearly topples over, unable to find the range with more than a single strike in a salvo. Hermansson kicks the legs and body, and Strickland does what he does best with straight, sharp jabs right down Broadway. While Strickland gets off a one-two, Hermansson leaps ahead with a superman punch that pops Strickland on the cheek. Hermansson walks Strickland down, putting everything he has into his punches, and Strickland’s guard remains active and effective at staving off the worst that comes at him. Hermansson does not bother reacting to jabs any longer, and he throws hard at his opponent. Strickland gives it right back with a pair of one-twos, but he settles back to his calm, methodical pace while Hermansson shouts kiais after every strike. Strickland smoothly walks through a leg kick to push out a few jabs, and he leans to the side to slap Hermansson in the side of his calf. A whiff from Hermansson allows Strickland to counter heavily, but Hermansson does not falter. Instead, the Swede crashes forward in pursuit of a single-leg takedown, and Strickland’s takedown defense remains immaculate as he pushes Hermansson away. Strickland shrugs off a low kick so that he can belt Hermansson in the face with a right hand, and he jabs out a few more times for good measure. Strickland starts talking trash, telling Hermansson to brawl with him. Hermansson appears confused at this, and his confusion lets Strickland blast him in the face a few times. Hermansson obliges him in one final throwdown, and they let it go right to the final horn. There is no bad blood after the last exchange, as they slap one another on the shoulder and laugh after five hard-fought rounds. After the head-scratching split decision score is read, Strickland thanks the UFC for the opportunity and says he is a “company man” and would be more than willing to fight the person that holds the belt next, if that is who’s next for him. The middleweight championship will be decided next week in Houston at UFC 271, with Sherdog in the building covering the fight card, so we will absolutely be there for it. We hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland (50-45 Strickland)
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Strickland (49-46 Strickland)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Strickland (50-45 Strickland)

The Official Result
Sean Strickland def. Jack Hermansson via Split Decision (49-46, 47-48, 49-46)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jan 30, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

Angelo picks Sean Strickland but is hesitant. He notes Strickland's insane volume and solid takedown defense, but criticizes his lack of hip rotation and footwork. Hermansson is a great grappler who will shoot takedowns relentlessly. Angelo thinks Strickland's volume can win, but Hermansson could frustrate him with takedowns. He calls it a great live betting card.

Live bet suggestion: if Hermansson has early takedown success, bet him live.
"i am gonna go with sean here because i do think her manson can be submission or bust at times but i wouldn't be surprised if hermansen can get a few takedowns and really frustrate sean strickland and get that …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Feb 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

Cody agrees with Paul that Strickland's volume and cardio should win the fight, but he is hesitant about the decision prop. He notes that Hermansson has good wrestling and BJJ, and if anyone can take Strickland down, it's Hermansson. However, he thinks Strickland's takedown defense has improved and that the fight will likely be decided by volume down the stretch. He picks Strickland but is hesitant on the method.

Strickland by decision (hesitant)
"the pick's gonna be sean strickland i will take him by decision but kind of hesitant on that part so far"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

Daniel Levi picks Sean Strickland, citing his improved power at middleweight and his ability to stuff takedowns and get back up. He notes that Strickland's wrestling is underrated, having taken down Uriah Hall and Brendan Allen. Levi believes Jack Hermansson's herky-jerky striking won't trouble Strickland, and that Hermansson shells up when hit, while Strickland thrives on pressure. He predicts a late finish or unanimous decision for Strickland.

"I gotta go with strickland here to kind of just put it on jack push that pace prevent jack from getting in the spots he wants to be in and light him up so sean strickland i'm gonna say either …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

Lock of the Night favors Strickland, citing his high output and volume striking that will drown Hermansson on the feet. He acknowledges the unknown of Strickland's takedown defense at 185 but believes his black belt and training with Kutila will suffice. He expects Strickland to get back to his feet and outpoint Hermansson, similar to the Vettori fight. He likes the over 4.5 rounds and Strickland by decision.

over 4.5 rounds -130, fight goes to decision +100, Strickland by decision +150
"i think hermansen gets absolutely drowned with with the output and volume that sean strickland's going to be putting on him"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

Paul thinks Strickland's volume and cardio will be the difference in a five-round fight. He notes that Strickland lands a high volume of significant strikes and that Hermansson may struggle to keep up. He also mentions that Strickland's wrestling is rarely tested but he trains with great wrestlers, so Hermansson's takedown edge is uncertain. Paul picks Strickland but says the price is about right.

"i'm gonna go with sean strickland to get the job done here but i think the the price is about right"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

The MMA Guru picks Sean Strickland, citing his experience and underrated grappling. He notes that Khamzat Chimaev flies across the world to train grappling with Strickland, implying high-level skills. He predicts Strickland will piece up Hermansson on the feet, stuff takedowns, and win a decision (50-45 or 50-44). He mentions Hermansson doesn't take damage well, as seen in the Uriah Hall fight.

decision, 50-45, 50-44
"i'm gonna go with sean strickland here over jack manson... i think strickland's gonna do very well here i don't see him anton out striking him i don't see him anson ko in him i just see strickland putting it …"
Decision (unanimous) (29–27, 29–27, 29–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt · May 22, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jack Hermansson 0 55 of 100 55% 141 of 192 3 of 6 50% 0 0 7:11
Edmen Shahbazyan 0 40 of 92 43% 42 of 94 0 of 0 --- 1 1 1:51
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jack Hermansson 0 18 of 42 42% 18 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Edmen Shahbazyan 0 26 of 67 38% 26 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jack Hermansson 0 6 of 13 46% 24 of 35 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:54
Edmen Shahbazyan 0 10 of 17 58% 12 of 19 0 of 0 --- 1 1 1:51
3 Jack Hermansson 0 31 of 45 68% 99 of 115 1 of 3 33% 0 0 4:14
Edmen Shahbazyan 0 4 of 8 50% 4 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jack Hermansson 55 of 100 55% 44 of 82 3 of 6 8 of 12 20 of 56 0 of 0 35 of 44
Edmen Shahbazyan 40 of 92 43% 34 of 84 6 of 8 0 of 0 30 of 77 3 of 4 7 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jack Hermansson 18 of 42 42% 7 of 24 3 of 6 8 of 12 18 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edmen Shahbazyan 26 of 67 38% 21 of 60 5 of 7 0 of 0 26 of 67 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jack Hermansson 6 of 13 46% 6 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 8 0 of 0 4 of 5
Edmen Shahbazyan 10 of 17 58% 10 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 3 of 4 7 of 11
3 Jack Hermansson 31 of 45 68% 31 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 6 0 of 0 31 of 39
Edmen Shahbazyan 4 of 8 50% 3 of 7 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jack Hermansson vs. Edmen Shahbazyan

Round 1
The main card commences with a high-stakes middleweight showdown as “The Joker” Hermansson (21-6, 8-4 UFC) will try to take more shine away from “The Golden Boy” Shahbazyan (11-1, 4-1 UFC). Two finishers will collide here, with 27 stoppage wins among their 32 career victories, so referee Herb Dean will need to mind his P’s and Q’s. There is no sign of a glove touch, as the two would rather get right down to business. Hermansson hops around as he takes the center of the cage, where he lets go with several front kicks to the knee. Shahbazyan loads up on a few punches down the middle, and Hermansson swats them away and kicks his lead leg. Shahbazyan sneaks in a right hand, and he follows it with a few more powerful strikes that give Hermansson some pause. “The Joker” sits down on a jab, and he gets countered with a left hand on the way in. Three big punches from Shahbazyan ricochet off Hermansson’s guard, and he splits that guard with an uppercut. Hermansson looses a few head kicks and a leg kick, and a jab that comes his way stings him on the chin. A long shot from Hermansson is unsuccessful, as Shahbazyan hops back and lands a big uppercut as the Swede stands. Hermansson rushes in to throw hands, but Shahbazyan’s sharper jab gives him some pause. A few punches from Shahbazyan have marked up Hermansson’s face, but the Swede gives him a response with a few kicks. Shahbazyan’s hands continue to land, and a single leg kick from Hermansson finds its home. Shahbazyan mixes it up with body shots as he jabs, forcing Hermansson to shoot in on him from a distance. “The Golden Boy” shines as he stuffs it, and he cracks Hermansson with a right hand. Hermansson walks through everything, until he meets a one-two that wobbles his knees. “The Joker” is not laughing as he stalks Shahbazyan down, but Shahbazyan is the one landing practically at will. Shahbazyan circles on the outside and reaches out with a front kick, and he sticks Hermansson with a few jabs. Hermansson fires off a kick on the inside leg, and one on the outside, but Shahbazyan ignores them and drills him in the face with a pair of punches. Hermansson gets busted up with a nasty jab, and Hermansson throws wildly with power strikes but is largely inaccurate. Hermansson attacks, but those strikes do not find their home as the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Shahbazyan
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Shahbazyan
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Shahbazyan

Round 2
Hermansson is ready to throw bombs as he starts the second round, and he clips Shahbazyan with an uppercut as he closes the distance. The Swede gets in close with his strikes, and he attempts a single leg takedown when he has Shahbazyan pushed against the fence. “The Joker” scoops up the legs, and he plants Shahbazyan firmly on his back. Shahbazyan closes the guard, but he is eating some serious ground-and-pound as Hermansson starts to unload on him. As a cut opens on his eyebrow from a strike, Shahbazyan wildly scrambles to burst back to his feet. Hermansson keeps him held tight with the threat of a guillotine choke as he leans against the cage wall, and he tightens it when Shahbazyan tries to step out. One solid elbow from Shahbazyan lands, but Hermansson tackles him down right into a guillotine choke from Shahbazyan. The Swede welcomes the exchange, as he is not concerned about the arm around his neck, and instead puts Shahbazyan down to the ground and hops to mount. Shahbazyan recovers position slightly, and Hermansson sits in a high half guard as he elbows Shahbazyan. A few more elbows for Hermansson land as he puts a knee on the belly to slice to full mount, but Shahbazyan is bucking like a bronco. Hermansson is unable to pass position, but he isolates an arm to hunt for a kimura. When Shahbazyan kicks to get out, Hermansson jumps a bit too high and Shahbazyan slides out the back door. Hermansson falls over, and Shahbazyan climbs on top to land a single elbow. “The Golden Boy” reaches down for a guillotine choke to keep the Swede in a position he would prefer, and bails on it to get into half guard. One big thudding elbow from Shahbazyan lands as Hermansson sits up, and “The Joker” twists and turns but falls short in his escape attempt. Hermansson kicks him off, and misses with a few upkicks. This is the perfect moment for Shahbazyan, who dives down with heavy ground-and-pound to end the round violently.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hermansson
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Hermansson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hermansson

Round 3
The middleweights meet in the center of the cage, and both land single strikes on the other. Shahbazyan sticks out a few jabs, and Hermansson shrugs them off only to get stung with an uppercut. “The Joker” blocks a front kick up the middle, and Hermansson shoots in for a single. He is able to scoop Shahbazyan off the ground, and a second attempt puts “The Golden Boy” on his back. Hermansson, sitting in half guard, frees his right hand to start raining it down on the jaw of the American. Hermansson clubs him with punches and squeezes down with shoulder pressure to pass to mount. Hermansson elbows him a few times, and lands some thudding right hands that bounce Shahbazyan’s head off the cage floor. The Swede continues to pour it on with punches and elbows, and a big cut has opened up around Shahbazyan’s right eye. Hermansson stays comfortable in half guard, thwarting any of Shahbazyan attempts to get up and making him pay for each one with strikes. The blood continues to flow from the man on bottom, and Hermansson opens up with a barrage of nasty elbows as he looks to force a stoppage. Dean keeps a close eye on the proceedings as Hermansson wails on him, and Hermansson sits up to hammer down with a huge elbow. Hermansson steps over into side control as he lands hammerfists, and he turns it into a north-south before taking the other side. Hermansson steps to mount with seconds to go, and he unloads with a fury of punches until the final bloody round ends. As soon as the bell rings, Hermansson gets up and helps a battered Shahbazyan back up to his feet.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Hermansson (29-27 Hermansson)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-8 Hermansson (29-27 Hermansson)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Hermansson (29-27 Hermansson)

The Official Result
Jack Hermansson def. Edmen Shahbazyan via Unanimous Decision (29-27, 29-27, 29-27)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 18, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

Big Brady picks Hermansson to survive Shahbazyan's dangerous first round, then take over with takedowns and ground game. He notes Shahbazyan's cardio issues and high finish rate (91%) but believes Hermansson's grappling and experience will lead to a second-round submission. He acknowledges Shahbazyan could knock him out early.

Hermansson by second-round submission
"i will take jacker manson to win would i be shocked if he got knocked down the first round though i wouldn't"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 19, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

Cody Saftic picks Jack Hermansson, criticizing the matchmaking for Shahbazyan. He notes that Hermansson is a strong wrestler with good cardio, while Shahbazyan has shown poor takedown defense and gassing issues. Saftic believes Hermansson will take the fight to the ground and wear Shahbazyan down, similar to what Derek Brunson did. He sees value at -150 and considers it a strong play.

Hermansson by submission or TKO (late rounds)
"i gotta go to jack hermans and get the job done i'm with you as well i think we're always on that same page"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 20, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Edmen Shahbazyan

Daniel Levi picks Edmen Shahbazyan, arguing that Shahbazyan is a young phenom with knockout power and takedown ability, and that his loss to Brunson was due to inexperience. He believes Jack Hermansson is a one-trick pony with poor striking defense and that he took too much damage in his last fight (broken orbital). He predicts Shahbazyan will knock out Hermansson in the first round, calling it a dog or pass situation.

first round knockout
"i actually think that edmond's going to come out here and knock jack out in the first round i think jack took too much damage that last fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 19, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Edmen Shahbazyan

Matt picks Edmen Shahbazyan by knockout, believing Shahbazyan's striking advantage and power will be too much for Hermansson. He notes Hermansson's defensive striking issues, having been hit by Cannonier, Vettori, and others. He thinks Shahbazyan's cardio issues may still exist, but he should finish within two rounds. He compares the matchup to Derek Brunson's win over Shahbazyan, but notes Brunson is more defensively sound than Hermansson. He likes Shahbazyan by KO at +265 and round 1 KO at +325.

Edmen Shahbazyan by KO (+265), Edmen Shahbazyan round 1 (+325)
"i got edmund shabazzian by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 19, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

Paul Shaughnessy agrees with Hermansson, noting that the line seems too good to be true. He points out that Hermansson has fought top competition and has good cardio, while Shahbazyan was dominated by Brunson. He suggests that if Shahbazyan wins, it would likely be by early knockout, but the longer the fight goes, the more it favors Hermansson. He recommends Hermansson by knockout at +265 as a prop.

Shahbazyan by knockout (alternative play)
"i would just take the plus 265 shabazin by knockout i see out there that seems like a much better play"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 22, 2021 (fight day)
Jack Hermansson

The MMA Guru predicts Jack Hermansson will win by first-round submission via arm-in guillotine. He expects Shahbazyan to show improvements on the feet and stuff some takedowns early, but Hermansson will eventually catch him in a scramble as Shahbazyan tries to get back up, latching onto the guillotine for the finish.

"i'm going to be going with the joker jack hermansen i think he's going to get this one done by first round submission"
LOSS vs Marvin Vettori
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 49–46, 49–45) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Hermansson vs. Vettori · Dec 05, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marvin Vettori 0 122 of 346 35% 139 of 365 2 of 7 28% 0 0 0:28
Jack Hermansson 1 164 of 334 49% 202 of 376 0 of 1 0% 1 1 5:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marvin Vettori 0 16 of 38 42% 17 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jack Hermansson 1 23 of 47 48% 58 of 83 0 of 0 --- 1 0 2:29
2 Marvin Vettori 0 15 of 35 42% 20 of 40 2 of 4 50% 0 0 0:28
Jack Hermansson 0 12 of 24 50% 14 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:28
3 Marvin Vettori 0 29 of 72 40% 35 of 78 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Jack Hermansson 0 23 of 50 46% 23 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Marvin Vettori 0 32 of 106 30% 32 of 106 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jack Hermansson 0 52 of 104 50% 52 of 104 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Marvin Vettori 0 30 of 95 31% 35 of 102 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jack Hermansson 0 54 of 109 49% 55 of 111 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:50
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marvin Vettori 122 of 346 35% 86 of 306 18 of 22 18 of 18 118 of 339 4 of 7 0 of 0
Jack Hermansson 164 of 334 49% 143 of 312 18 of 19 3 of 3 156 of 320 0 of 1 8 of 13
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marvin Vettori 16 of 38 42% 8 of 28 3 of 5 5 of 5 15 of 37 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jack Hermansson 23 of 47 48% 18 of 42 5 of 5 0 of 0 18 of 37 0 of 0 5 of 10
2 Marvin Vettori 15 of 35 42% 7 of 27 4 of 4 4 of 4 14 of 32 1 of 3 0 of 0
Jack Hermansson 12 of 24 50% 7 of 19 2 of 2 3 of 3 9 of 21 0 of 0 3 of 3
3 Marvin Vettori 29 of 72 40% 21 of 62 5 of 7 3 of 3 29 of 72 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jack Hermansson 23 of 50 46% 20 of 47 3 of 3 0 of 0 23 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Marvin Vettori 32 of 106 30% 28 of 102 1 of 1 3 of 3 30 of 103 2 of 3 0 of 0
Jack Hermansson 52 of 104 50% 46 of 98 6 of 6 0 of 0 52 of 103 0 of 1 0 of 0
5 Marvin Vettori 30 of 95 31% 22 of 87 5 of 5 3 of 3 30 of 95 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jack Hermansson 54 of 109 49% 52 of 106 2 of 3 0 of 0 54 of 109 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 2, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

Big Brady picks Jack Hermansson as a dog, surprised by the line movement making Vettori the favorite. He believes Hermansson's cardio in the championship rounds is superior, as Vettori has slowed in the third round of three-round fights. He sees Hermansson's takedowns and ground game as key to grinding Vettori down, and notes Hermansson has faced tougher competition recently. He expects Hermansson to win a decision, possibly taking the last two rounds.

Hermansson by decision; line movement surprising; Vettori's cardio a concern; Hermansson's cardio looked good in five-round fights
"I'm actually going to believe it or not take the dog here and Jack Hermansson... I just think the extra two rounds it's really sketchy the line is sketchy"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 2, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

Daniel picks Jack Hermansson, arguing that Marvin Vettori's hype is inflated by a close fight with Israel Adesanya, which was not a true split decision. He notes that Hermansson has better volume, proven five-round cardio, and submission threats, as seen against Jacare Souza. He also questions Vettori's power, stating he doesn't have the one-punch knockout ability to stop Hermansson. However, he acknowledges that Hermansson's mental state could be a factor if he doesn't want to be there.

Surprised Hermansson is an underdog; thinks he should be a slight favorite.
"I'm actually gonna go on the opposite side here I'm gonna take jack herman... I was actually kind of surprised that he was an underdog in this spot I felt like he should have been at least a sly favorite …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Nov 30, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

The host picks Jack Hermansson to win by decision, citing his superior wrestling and top pressure, especially in a five-round fight. He notes that Vettori has not faced someone with Hermansson's ground game and that Hermansson's unorthodox style and lanky strength will be key. He is not confident enough to bet Hermansson at current odds but would consider it if the line widens to +150.

Jack Hermansson by decision at +525 is mentioned as a possible small play; Hermansson inside distance +160; Vettori's durability noted.
"I'm going her mansion here to win by decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

The MMA Guru picks Jack Hermansson by submission in the first two rounds, emphasizing that Hermansson's style is completely different from Jacare's—he fights on the outside, chops at the legs, and waits for takedowns. He believes Vettori is taking a jump too soon and that Hermansson's explosive grappling will be too much. He notes Hermansson almost submitted Jacare with an arm-in guillotine on short notice and predicts a similar early submission here.

method: submission, round: 1-2
"i think her manson in the first two rounds by submission"
Expert Picks (4)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 2, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

Big Brady picks Jack Hermansson as a dog, surprised by the line movement making Vettori the favorite. He believes Hermansson's cardio in the championship rounds is superior, as Vettori has slowed in the third round of three-round fights. He sees Hermansson's takedowns and ground game as key to grinding Vettori down, and notes Hermansson has faced tougher competition recently. He expects Hermansson to win a decision, possibly taking the last two rounds.

Hermansson by decision; line movement surprising; Vettori's cardio a concern; Hermansson's cardio looked good in five-round fights
"I'm actually going to believe it or not take the dog here and Jack Hermansson... I just think the extra two rounds it's really sketchy the line is sketchy"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 2, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

Daniel picks Jack Hermansson, arguing that Marvin Vettori's hype is inflated by a close fight with Israel Adesanya, which was not a true split decision. He notes that Hermansson has better volume, proven five-round cardio, and submission threats, as seen against Jacare Souza. He also questions Vettori's power, stating he doesn't have the one-punch knockout ability to stop Hermansson. However, he acknowledges that Hermansson's mental state could be a factor if he doesn't want to be there.

Surprised Hermansson is an underdog; thinks he should be a slight favorite.
"I'm actually gonna go on the opposite side here I'm gonna take jack herman... I was actually kind of surprised that he was an underdog in this spot I felt like he should have been at least a sly favorite here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Nov 30, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

The host picks Jack Hermansson to win by decision, citing his superior wrestling and top pressure, especially in a five-round fight. He notes that Vettori has not faced someone with Hermansson's ground game and that Hermansson's unorthodox style and lanky strength will be key. He is not confident enough to bet Hermansson at current odds but would consider it if the line widens to +150.

Jack Hermansson by decision at +525 is mentioned as a possible small play; Hermansson inside distance +160; Vettori's durability noted.
"I'm going her mansion here to win by decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

The MMA Guru picks Jack Hermansson by submission in the first two rounds, emphasizing that Hermansson's style is completely different from Jacare's—he fights on the outside, chops at the legs, and waits for takedowns. He believes Vettori is taking a jump too soon and that Hermansson's explosive grappling will be too much. He notes Hermansson almost submitted Jacare with an arm-in guillotine on short notice and predicts a similar early submission here.

method: submission, round: 1-2
"i think her manson in the first two rounds by submission"