Jake Collier

Angelo picks Usman due to size and speed advantage, but notes Collier has a great chin, busy jab, and more experience. He thinks Collier could win a close decision. He is not confident and only considers betting the over 1.5 rounds if available.

Big Brady picks Jake Collier with low confidence, calling the fight a mess. He notes Collier is the better striker by far, has a wrestling background, and appears to be in better shape after dropping weight. He worries about Collier's grappling at heavyweight but believes he can stuff takedowns and keep the fight standing. He is not betting this fight.

Cody picks Jake Collier as a live underdog, citing his volume and speed advantage if his cardio holds. He notes Usman's low output and stiffness. He is encouraged by Collier looking trimmer on social media and thinks if Collier can last past the first round, he wins.

Daniel picks Usman confidently, comparing Collier to Jared Vandera as a fan-favorite who loses. He notes Collier is 2-5 at heavyweight and was finished by Chris Barnett. He thinks Usman's physicality and takedowns will be too much, and Collier has never faced a takedown attempt at heavyweight. He expects Usman to control and possibly finish.

Lucrative James picks Collier, believing he should be favored. He notes Collier's high volume and finishing upside, while Usman lacks finishing ability. He thinks Collier can win by decision or finish, and sees value at plus 150. He acknowledges Collier's cardio issues but expects him to do enough early.

The host picks Collier as a live underdog, expecting the best version of him given his improved shape and urgency. He notes Collier has advantages in combination striking and volume, and that Usman is a low-volume kickboxer who may struggle if he can't grapple. He predicts a decision win for Collier and also likes the over 2.5 rounds prop.

Paul sides with Collier at plus money, noting Usman's low volume (7 significant strikes in his last fight). He thinks Collier's experience and volume will be too much if he doesn't gas. He mentions Collier's takedown defense against Buday.

Cody picks Buday at plus money, noting that both fighters have poor recent performances. He believes if Buday uses his size and grappling to lean on Collier and push him against the cage, he can win. He is concerned about Collier's cardio after his last fight and thinks Buday's path to victory is through control and wearing Collier down.

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Collier's path to victory is either instant or leads to slow disaster. He points out that Collier was a middleweight who moved up and lacks the fitness to carry the weight, whereas Buday is a solid heavyweight who can fight into shape. Connor emphasizes that Collier's best wins are against fighters who couldn't match his pace, but Buday can sustain his own pace.

Paul picks Collier, citing his volume and cardio advantage. He notes that Collier can land over 100 significant strikes and Buday has low volume. He predicts Collier wins by decision, as Buday is not likely to finish. He also mentions a prop on Buday under 65.5 significant strikes for PrizePicks.

Angelo picks Jake Collier, noting he is tougher and more well-rounded. He thinks Chris Barnett will plant and throw big bombs looking for a knockout, which will allow Collier to outwork him. He believes the line is disrespectful to Barnett, but expects Collier to win by pressuring and using his grappling.

Big Brady picks Jake Collier to win inside the distance, calling Chris Barnett one of the worst heavyweights on the roster. He notes Barnett is undersized at 5'9", has poor takedown defense and cardio, while Collier has solid cardio and volume. He predicts Collier can finish via ground-and-pound or submission, specifically a second-round submission.

Cody picks Jake Collier, noting his volume, cardio, and ground game are superior. He points out that Barnett is a freak show fighter with no wrestling or grappling, and that he quit in his last fight. He believes Collier will dominate and likely win by submission, and mentions the Collier by submission prop at +900 (now +650).

Daniel Levi picks Jake Collier, calling him the more skilled fighter. He notes Collier's ground prowess as seen against Chase Sherman, and his spinning attacks. He warns that laying -400 on Collier is not a long-term winning strategy, but expects Collier to win. He also sends condolences to Barnett for personal issues.

Jacob agrees, saying the playbook for Collier is to copy Martin Buday's approach: crowd Barnett, press him against the cage, and make it boring. He notes Barnett is athletic but needs space to shine, and Collier will take that away. He thinks Collier will lay on him and get the win.

The host picks Jake Collier but is queasy about betting him at -410. He expects Collier to be the better overall fighter with better combinations and pace, and could finish late. He notes Barnett's power is a threat but trusts Collier's durability and versatility.

Paul picks Jake Collier, noting his pattern of never losing back-to-back fights. He believes Collier's volume and cardio will be too much for Barnett, who is undersized and has no intangible other than a puncher's chance. He says he won't bet Collier at -425 but expects him to win.

Angelo picks Arlovski, expecting another decision win. He highlights Arlovski's superior technique, conditioning, and 78% takedown defense over 43 UFC fights. He notes Collier lacks one-punch KO power and is undersized at heavyweight. He sees this as a kickboxing match where Arlovski cruises to a decision.

Big Brady picks Jake Collier but is very hesitant, calling the fight a mess. He notes Collier's volume advantage and youth, but worries about his poor cardio and tendency to gas. He expects a split decision that could go either way, and advises against betting.

Cody also picks Jake Collier, calling it a 'dogger pass' situation. He believes Collier's volume and better defense will edge out Arlovski in a close fight. Cody notes Arlovski tends to get the benefit of the doubt in close decisions but thinks Collier is better than Jared Vanderaa, who gave Arlovski trouble. He mentions Collier's cardio faded in the third against Felipe but expects a high pace from Collier.

Daniel Levi leans toward Andrei Arlovski but is hesitant to lay the -145 price. He notes Arlovski's recent winning streak and speed advantage, but acknowledges Collier's power and potential for a finish. Levi expects a close split decision and suggests the Arlovski by decision prop, but is not confident enough to bet the moneyline.

The host picks Arlovski, highlighting his experience and decision-friendly style. He notes Arlovski's takedown defense and ability to outpoint opponents, even when outstruck in volume. He believes Collier's body language and cardio issues will be a factor, and that Arlovski will land the more significant strikes to sway judges. He expects a decision win.

Paul picks Jake Collier as an underdog, expecting him to win by decision through volume striking. He notes Collier's high output (e.g., 130 significant strikes against Carlos Felipe) and doubts the modern Arlovski can keep pace. Paul acknowledges Arlovski's ability to slow fights down but believes Collier's volume will be decisive. He mentions the over 2.5 rounds line has moved from -155 to -210, making overs risky.

Angelo picks Sherman in a close fight, citing his better athleticism and pace. He notes both are similar boxers but Sherman has better volume and durability, while Collier may fade. He expects a striking war going to decision and won't bet on it.

Big Brady notes Jake Collier throws high volume but has no power, while Chase Sherman hits hard and has a 93% knockout rate. He thinks Sherman's durability and power will be the difference, predicting a knockout. However, he admits neither fighter is reliable and that Collier could win a decision if he survives. He picks Sherman by knockout but is not confident.

Cody picks Collier, agreeing with Paul's analysis. He notes Sherman's cardio issues and Collier's volume striking. He expects Collier to win by decision or late TKO. He mentions the over 1.5 rounds is heavily juiced, indicating a likely decision.

Daniel Levi picks Jake Collier, citing his higher work rate and slightly better technique. He warns about Chase Sherman's leg kicks and durability but notes Sherman's cardio drops off in later rounds, which has been a consistent issue even before his USADA suspension. Levi believes Collier can capitalize on Sherman's fatigue and land effective strikes. He also mentions that Collier looked good against Valente and that Sherman has shown a tendency to shy away in tough fights.

The host favors Jake Collier due to his high output and movement, similar to Parker Porter who beat Sherman. He notes Sherman's power is a threat early, but Collier's volume and cardio should take over as the fight progresses. He expects Collier to win a decision, as he doesn't see Collier finishing Sherman. The host is confident in Collier's ability to avoid Sherman's power and accumulate strikes.

Paul picks Collier, citing Sherman's pattern of gassing after the first round. He notes Collier's high volume and durability, and expects him to outwork Sherman in rounds 2 and 3. He suggests betting Collier live after round 1 as a hedge. He also mentions Collier by decision at +150 as a prop.

Big Brady picks Carlos Felipe despite acknowledging it's a close fight. He notes Felipe has better boxing, cardio, and durability, while Collier has a reach and height advantage but has been knocked out three times. He expects a close decision win for Felipe, though he is not overly confident.

Cody leans towards Collier as an underdog, citing his impressive cardio and output in his last fight. He thinks Collier's pressure and volume will overwhelm Felipe, who has shown cardio issues and inability to get off the cage. He notes Felipe's lack of power.

Daniel Levi picks Carlos Felipe to win by knockout in the first round. He emphasizes Felipe's durability, high boxing volume, and youth, contrasting with Jake Collier's questionable win over John Volante. Levi notes that Collier was a former middleweight who ballooned up and that Felipe's power and pressure will be too much. He also mentions that Felipe's weakness is the clinch or ground, but Collier is not a strong grappler.

Collier has a more varied striking attack with leg kicks, body kicks, and punches, while Felipe is a headhunter who telegraphs his big shots. Collier's durability should allow him to eat Felipe's power, and he can mix in takedowns and clinch work to control the fight. Expect Collier to win via decision, as Felipe's takedown defense is questionable and his output is low.

Paul leans towards Collier, noting his improved cardio and striking output in his last fight. He thinks Collier can pressure Felipe and exploit his weaknesses against the cage. He sees it as a dog or pass situation.

Big Brady hesitantly picks Gian Villante, calling it an ugly fight that should be a pick'em. He notes Villante had a better showing in his last fight against Maurice Greene, while Collier was knocked out quickly by Tom Aspinall. He says his pick might change after weigh-ins, depending on which fighter looks more motivated and in shape. He strongly advises against betting on this fight.

Daniel picks Gian Villante, citing Jake Collier's massive weight gain (from 185 to 265 lbs) and lack of training. He notes that Villante at least dropped Maurice Greene in his last fight, while Collier has been inactive and likely out of shape. He says if Collier shows up lighter, he could be a live underdog, but based on current information, Villante should win via leg kicks or a finish. He also mentions that both fighters looked terrible in their last outings, but Villante is the better pick.

The host picks Jake Collier as a significant underdog, believing the line is absurdly wide. He argues that Collier has better overall game, durability, and cardio than Villante, who is uncoachable and gasses easily. He expects Collier to win by late stoppage or decision, and will bet him at plus money, especially if it reaches +200.

Big Brady picks Aspinall, citing his power, BJJ black belt, and training with high-level partners. He is concerned about Collier's three-year layoff and move to heavyweight. He wants to see weigh-ins but thinks Aspinall has the advantage everywhere. He predicts a second-round knockout, noting Collier may gas.

Daniel leans Aspinall but is not fully convinced. He notes Aspinall's power and well-roundedness but questions his takedown defense and experience. He thinks Collier could be competitive if he shows up in shape, but the three-year layoff is a concern. He sees potential for a stoppage for Aspinall or a close fight.

Collier has better cardio and durability, and Aspinall's gas tank is unproven beyond the first round. Collier can survive the initial onslaught and take over in later rounds with takedowns and control. However, Collier has a long layoff and Aspinall could finish early. Collier by decision is the pick.