Kai Asakura

AJ picks Asakura (referred to as Caio Borralho in transcript, but context indicates Kai Asakura) because of his snappy kickboxing, dangerous knees, and body kicks. He notes Smotherman is a decent boxer but has no offensive grappling (zero takedowns in UFC) and had a terrible weight cut. AJ thinks Asakura's speed advantage will show and predicts a knockout, possibly via knee.

AJ picks Asakura, believing he will be reinvigorated at bantamweight after struggling with the cut to flyweight. He notes Asakura's speed, kickboxing, and knockout power will be too much for Smotherman, who is a lower-tier opponent. AJ expects a KO win, possibly in highlight-reel fashion.

Angelo picks Kai Asakura because he is the better striker in a striking matchup. He notes that Cameron Smotherman has zero recorded takedown attempts in the UFC and is coming off a bad weight cut. He thinks Kai's speed and footwork will be the difference, but he is not betting due to the odds.

Angelo picks Kai Asakura because he is the superior striker and Smotherman has no takedown attempts in the UFC. He notes that Asakura's takedown defense is nonexistent, but since Smotherman doesn't wrestle, Asakura should win on the feet. He refuses to bet on Asakura at -300 due to the takedown vulnerability, but he believes Asakura will win.

Angelo picks Kai Asakura, believing his striking is superior to Smotherman's and that Smotherman won't attempt takedowns, negating Asakura's weakness. He notes Asakura is winless in the UFC but should win if he doesn't have to defend takedowns.

Big Brady picks Asakura by first-round KO, viewing this as a massive step down in competition after Asakura's title fight debut. He notes Smotherman has a poor chin, has been knocked out multiple times, and recently fell face-first on the scale. He believes Asakura is a much better striker and grappler, and that Smotherman can't grapple, so the fight stays on the feet where Asakura has power and quick hands.

Cody picks Asakura, citing his speed and striking advantage over Smotherman. He notes Smotherman's bad weight cuts, suspect durability (KO loss in 13 seconds), and poor wrestling. Cody believes Asakura can piece him up on the feet and potentially knock him out. He also mentions that Asakura's move up to 135 may help with weight cut and speed.

Levi picks Asakura, believing he has better boxing and can knock out Smotherman. He dismisses Smotherman's UFC credentials, noting his knockout loss to Harlampos Gregorio and weight-cutting issues. Levi thinks Asakura will finally showcase his hype.

Jacob picks Kai Asakura because he should have the speed advantage and be more dynamic. He notes that Cameron Smotherman tends to plant his feet and look for counters, which could lead to inactivity. He warns that Kai should not hang out in the pocket because Cameron has power.

Lucrative James picks Kai Asakura but is not confident, calling it a 'very strange fight' and disliking the line. He notes Asakura's poor UFC performances, including submission losses, and questions his move up to bantamweight where he loses the size advantage. He sees Asakura's path via knockout due to power and speed, but worries if he doesn't get the finish, Smotherman's boxing could win rounds. He mentions Smotherman's fainting incident and chin issues but still leans Asakura as a pure pick, though he would look at props or even bet Smotherman if the line moves.

The host picks Asakura, believing his power and speed will be too much for Smotherman. He notes Asakura is more dangerous in the knockout department and may have a speed advantage. He expects Asakura to land big shots and potentially put Smotherman away, despite Smotherman's technical edge.

The host believes this is the most favorable matchup for Kai Asakura in the UFC, expecting him to utilize his flashy striking. Despite Smotherman's technical striking, Asakura's speed and power will be the difference, leading to a knockout.

Paul is tempted by Asakura but hesitant due to his age (32) and move up in weight. He notes Asakura's losses in rematches and his UFC loss to Pantoja. However, he acknowledges Smotherman's poor weight cut and durability issues, and that Asakura is the better striker. Paul leans Asakura but is not fully confident.

The Guru picks Kai Asakura over Cameron Smotherman, citing Kai's speed and power advantage. He believes Kai's explosive striking will outclass Smotherman's volume-based boxing. He notes Smotherman's back-to-back losses and expects Kai to land the bigger shots.

The MMA Guru picks Kai Asakura to win by knockout. He notes that Asakura is a step up in competition for Smotherman, and Asakura's striking is more dynamic and powerful. He believes Asakura will keep the fight on the feet and land a knockout, as Smotherman is mostly a boxer and small for the weight class.

Angelo questions why Asakura is a 3-to-1 favorite given his lack of UFC success and poor takedown defense. He believes Elliott's grit, forward pressure, and grappling can overwhelm Asakura, despite Elliott's age and layoff. He picks Elliott, rooting for him due to his personal story.

Big Brady picks Kai Asakura to win by second-round knockout. He is worried about Tim Elliott's age (38), layoff (1 year 8 months), and cardio. He thinks Asakura has good takedown defense and nasty striking with power. He notes Elliott hasn't faced many power punchers and that Asakura is a big favorite. He also questions Elliott's training camp. He expects Asakura to finish Elliott.

Connor picks Asakura, but with low confidence, noting that Asakura is an insanely talented intercepting striker with good scrambling wrestling. He believes Asakura's speed and counter-striking could lead to Elliott's first knockout loss, as Elliott is very hittable. However, he acknowledges that Elliott's tenacity and chain wrestling could exhaust Asakura, and that Asakura's defense is poor.

The host acknowledges Asakura's finishing nature but highlights Elliott's elite flyweight grappling and record. He expects Elliott to avoid Asakura's finishing style, grind him against the cage, take him down, and win by decision with top control.

The Guru picks Kai Asakura to win by first-round KO over Tim Elliott. He believes Asakura is more dynamic, physical, and has finishing potential. The Guru notes that Elliott lacks power and will not be able to earn Asakura's respect on the feet. He predicts Asakura will eat a few shots, realize he can take them, and then finish Elliott with a brutal combination. The Guru also mentions Elliott's age and lack of motivation as factors.

Angelo picks Alexandre Pantoja, citing his wrestling and pressure as the difference. He believes Kai Asakura's takedown defense is untested against a grappler of Pantoja's level, and the weight cut to 125 lbs may be a factor. Pantoja is durable and has power. Angelo notes the odds are widening and he has already bet on Pantoja.

Cody picks Pantoja, having already bet him by submission. He notes Asakura hasn't gone five rounds and hits hard, but Pantoja gets takedowns when he wants and is relentless. He expects Pantoja to shoot early and often and secure a submission, possibly in later rounds.

Connor emphasizes Pantoja's toughness, durability, and refusal to lose. He notes that Pantoja has never been knocked out and has a strong chin, having eaten heavy shots from fighters like Deiveson Figueiredo. Connor points out that Asakura's game is narrowly defined and that Pantoja's volume and grappling will likely overwhelm him. He also highlights the cage vs. ring adjustment for Asakura, suggesting his wrestling defense may not translate well.

Daniel acknowledges Asakura's knockout power and history of winning first fights, but ultimately picks Pantoja due to his relentless takedown game, elite back-taking, and championship mindset. He notes Pantoja's high takedown volume and recovery ability, but admits Asakura is dangerous and could win, making this a hesitant pick.

Daniel Vreeland picks Alexandre Pantoja, calling him underrated and well-rounded. He notes that while Asakura has fought good competition in Rizin and Bellator, it's a different level than the UFC. He mentions age is not a major factor since Asakura is 32, and he prefers the known quantity who has proven he can get it done at the highest level.

Jeff Fox picks Pantoja, arguing that Asakura only wins if Pantoja is dumb enough to stand and trade for an extended period. He notes that when Pantoja decides to grapple, it shouldn't be a problem, referencing Asakura's loss to Kyoji Horiguchi where he was outgrappled. Fox also mentions Asakura lost to Tim Elliott largely by being outgrappled, and Pantoja is a couple of steps above Elliott in grappling, making it wildly alarming for Asakura backers. He concludes that the longer Pantoja stays on the feet, the more danger he's in, but he likely won't stay there long.

Lucrative James picks Pantoja to win by submission, specifically a rear-naked choke, citing intangibles like Octagon experience, cage wrestling, and rule set differences. He notes Pantoja is hittable but durable, and expects him to overcome early adversity. He predicts a finish in round 2 or 3, but won't bet due to wide odds.

Pantoja is the clear grappler in this matchup and should be able to get the takedowns early to lock up a submission. Asakura could be dangerous in the later rounds if he stops takedowns and showcases his gas tank, but Pantoja will make it a short night by finding the back and submitting him within the first two rounds.

Paul picks Pantoja but notes concerns: Asakura is a dangerous striker with knockout power, and Pantoja has had close fights. However, he believes Pantoja is the better fighter and should win via takedowns and pressure. He mentions Asakura's weight cut issues and lack of recent 125lb fights.

The MMA Guru picks Pantoja, citing his superior grappling chain-wrestling compared to Morab's, which will allow him to take Asakura's back. He notes Pantoja's underrated technical striking, especially body kicks, and his proven chin against Figueiredo. He worries Asakura can be slept by a glancing shot and has been out for a year. He predicts a finish in the first two rounds or a decision.