Fight card

UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo

May 30, 2026 Galaxy Arena Macau SAR, China
Fight 1 VS Bantamweight Scheduled

Song Yadong

Moneyline
Betfair Exchange -476
KO/TKO
FanDuel +130
Submission
FanDuel +1700
Decision
Cloudbet 2.56

Deiveson Figueiredo

Moneyline
Matchbook +470
KO/TKO
FanDuel +1600
Submission
Cloudbet 28.93
Decision
Cloudbet 10.71
Fighter Stats

Song Yadong

Age28
Height5' 8"
Reach67.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Deiveson Figueiredo

Age38
Height5' 5"
Reach68.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Song Yadong

4.42SLpM
43.0%Str. Acc.
3.94SApM
55.0%Str. Def.
0.78TD Avg
39.0%TD Acc.
73.0%TD Def.
0.1Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Deiveson Figueiredo

2.63SLpM
53.0%Str. Acc.
3.47SApM
49.0%Str. Def.
1.61TD Avg
35.0%TD Acc.
57.0%TD Def.
1.2Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (17)
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Song Yadong

AJ picks Song Yadong as a confident pick, citing age advantage (28 vs 38), physicality, and hand speed. He notes Figueiredo's power hasn't translated well to bantamweight and that Song is an underrated wrestler. AJ expects a stoppage or dominant decision, especially with Figueiredo missing weight previously and fighting in China.

Song Yadong win over 1.5 rounds -250 mentioned as a prop; moneyline at -550
"Sonia Dong's hand speed, explosiveness, athleticism, and capable grappling game make him kind of a nightmare matchup for Davis and Figuredo."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked May 26, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Song Yadong

AJ picks Song Yadong, citing his hand speed, explosiveness, and youth (10 years younger). He thinks Figueiredo is past his prime and hasn't looked good since 2024, with a split decision win over Montel Jackson. Song's only recent losses are to Sean O'Malley and Petr Yan. AJ believes Song will outwork Figueiredo over five rounds, possibly with a TKO, but notes Figueiredo is durable. He sees Song winning in all phases.

Song Yadong KO at +110; Song Yadong win over 1.5 rounds at -240; Song Yadong at -550
"I think Song Yadong is going to be able to explode big punches on him in punching range. ... I think Song Yadong every single phase of this fight, and um you know, it it it's either going …"
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Lock picked May 18, 2026 (12 days before fight)
Song Yadong

AJ calls Song a lock, citing his youth, speed, power, and well-rounded game. He thinks Figueiredo is past his prime, with recent weight misses and a decline in performance. AJ expects Song to win by KO, possibly later in the fight, as Figueiredo's chin may not hold up.

Song Yadong wins by KO/TKO
"I think that this is a Song Yadong showcase chance in China without a shadow of a doubt. It's Song Yadong in a no-brainer all day."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 29, 2026 (fight day)
Song Yadong

Angelo picks Song Yadong, citing his superior striking speed, power, and offensive wrestling. He believes Figueiredo, a former flyweight moving up, will be the smaller fighter and unable to bully Song. Angelo notes Song's finishing upside and experience in five-round fights, making him a strong DraftKings play.

Song in lineup; finishing upside mentioned
"Song's going to be the pick. song in your lineup probably makes a lot of sense because A, he's got two extra rounds to work with. B, he has plenty of finishing upside, certainly in this matchup."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Song Yadong

Angelo picks Song Yadong because he is a technical striker with power and can mix in wrestling. He notes that Figueiredo is 38 and declining, and that Song is too big and strong. He thinks Figueiredo is being used as a gatekeeper for the local star.

"Song should win. Divas is just being used at this point for the local guy to get a win headlining a card in his country."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 24, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Song Yadong

Angelo picks Song Yadong, citing his size, speed, and power advantages over the aging Figueiredo. He notes that Figueiredo's success comes from bullying opponents, but Song is bigger and hits harder. He believes Song will win, possibly by decision, and mentions that a decision prop could provide extra value. He is surprised the odds are widening in Figueiredo's favor.

Song Yadong by decision
"It has to be Song Dong. He certainly can fade as the fight goes on, which could be a problem in a five round main event. But I think Song gets it done."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 26, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Song Yadong

Big Brady is confident in Song Yadong, citing Figueiredo's age (38), weight cut struggles at bantamweight, and poor performance against Umar Nurmagomedov where he landed only seven strikes in 15 minutes. He notes Song has never been dropped, has good takedown defense and getup game, and believes Figueiredo is washed. He predicts a decision win for Song, acknowledging Figueiredo's toughness and lack of official KO losses.

"I love Song Dong in this matchup. It's a shame he's minus 550 here, but I don't really see how he loses this fight to be honest."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Song Yadong

Cody is fully confident in Song Yadong, citing his higher trajectory, superior skills, cardio, durability, and striking volume. He notes Figueiredo's power hasn't translated to 135, his cardio is poor, and he's on a 1-4 slide. Cody sees no path for Figueiredo except a puncher's chance, which he dismisses due to Figueiredo's low volume and one-and-done style.

Song Yadong by decision or late finish; hedge opportunity mentioned but Cody would not take it
"No, I got Sonong 100%. I don't see where he loses this fight."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Song Yadong

Daniel Levi picks Song Yadong, citing his exceptional boxing, underrated durability, and improved grappling. He believes Figueiredo's best path is via submission but doubts his cardio to sustain grappling over five rounds. Levi notes Song's momentum and timing, and suggests a potential knockout.

Song Yadong by KO/TKO mentioned as a legitimate chance; odds: Song -550, Figueiredo +420
"I think he's going to come out here and put the damage on the legend and go out there and get this big win in China in the main event."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Song Yadong

Jacob picks Song Yadong because he is good enough to win and Figueiredo slows down as the fight goes. He notes that Song has a tendency to be cocky and put himself in bad positions, but overall he should win. He warns that Figueiredo is always live for a submission or knockout.

"I'm gonna pick Songie Dong. He should be safe in this fight. He's good enough to win this fight. And Figgy is is just a low volume guy that slows down as the fight goes."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked May 23, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Song Yadong

Lucrative James picks Song Yadong primarily due to the 10-year age advantage and being in his prime versus Figueiredo who is 38 and past his prime. He emphasizes Song's superior cardio, speed, durability, and youth, noting that Figueiredo has changed his style to be less aggressive and lacks the physicality he once had. He acknowledges Figueiredo's guillotine threat but believes Song's improved grappling and overall athleticism will be too much. He predicts a knockout, citing Song's point to prove after a close loss to Sean O'Malley.

Song Yadong via knockout
"I got Seyong to win this fight primarily on youth and I think he's actually going to get a knockout."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Song Yadong

The host believes Song Yadong has all advantages: more power, speed, youth, better wrestling, and good defensive grappling. He acknowledges Figueiredo's durability and cardio but expects Yadong to win convincingly by decision, barring a Hail Mary submission.

decision victory
"I believe Yadong has all the advantages in this fight. ... I think Yadong wins this fight pretty convincingly. ... I'm going to go Sona Dong by decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 25, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Song Yadong

The host picks Song Yadong, citing his youth, speed, power, and cardio advantage. He believes Song's grappling is good enough to halt Figueiredo's takedowns and that he will outstrike and outpoint Figueiredo over five rounds. He expects a decision win and doesn't mind the chalky price.

"I really think we see Song keep the pressure on Figero, outland him, maybe out wrestle him. ... I think we see Song win this fight on the scorecards."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Song Yadong

Paul agrees with Cody, calling Song Yadong a clear play across the board. He emphasizes Song's trajectory, hometown advantage, and Figueiredo's decline. Paul notes Figueiredo's low output (e.g., 8 significant strikes in 15 minutes vs Umar) and that he needs high volume to beat Song, which he can't provide.

Song Yadong top of PRP; hedge opportunity mentioned
"I think Sonia Dong is a clear clear play across the board."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked May 26, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Song Yadong

The Guru picks Song for the pick but notes Figueiredo is the value side. He thinks Song's volume and movement on the feet will win most minutes, and he has a geographical advantage. Figueiredo has power and grappling but may be slowing slightly. He expects a competitive decision and says the line is too wide.

Figueiredo as value side, possibly on point spread
"I'll take song for a pick figure out as the value side there's a real good chance I have a bet on him at least on the point spread style of thing."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 20, 2026 (9 days before fight)
Song Yadong

The Guru picks Song Yadong over Deiveson Figueiredo, citing Yadong's youth, speed, and technical boxing. He believes Yadong's takedown defense and crisp combinations will overwhelm the aging Figueiredo, who has lost to top contenders. He expects Yadong to control the fight and win a decision or late finish.

"I'm going to go Song Yadong here."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 20, 2026 (9 days before fight)
Song Yadong

The MMA Guru picks Song Yadong to win by finish in the third round. He notes that Song is a good boxer with leg kicks and pressure, and Figueiredo needs to get the fight to the ground to win. He believes Song's takedown defense is proven against better wrestlers, and he will overwhelm Figueiredo with volume and boxing, finishing him in the third round.

"I think he's going to finish Davis and Figero in this match up in the third round."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Fight 2 VS Light Heavyweight Scheduled

Zhang Mingyang

Moneyline
DraftKings -204
KO/TKO
Cloudbet 1.78
Submission
Cloudbet 14.70
Decision
Cloudbet 10.00

Alonzo Menifield

Moneyline
Betsson +215
KO/TKO
Cloudbet 6.42
Submission
Cloudbet 11.79
Decision
FanDuel +800
Fighter Stats

Zhang Mingyang

Age27
Height6' 2"
Reach75.0"
Weight205 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Alonzo Menifield

Age38
Height6' 0"
Reach76.0"
Weight205 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Zhang Mingyang

7.71SLpM
60.0%Str. Acc.
5.33SApM
43.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
75.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Alonzo Menifield

3.77SLpM
53.0%Str. Acc.
3.81SApM
50.0%Str. Def.
0.5TD Avg
31.0%TD Acc.
78.0%TD Def.
0.2Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (17)
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

AJ is very confident in Zhang Mingyang, predicting a first-round knockout. He notes Menifield's age (38) and recent knockout losses, while Zhang is in his physical prime with heavy hands and speed. AJ believes Menifield's forward pressure plays into Zhang's boxing, and that Zhang will replicate the success of Menifield's previous KO loss.

Zhang Mingyang by KO -145 mentioned; Zhang by KO round 1 or 2 +155; round 1 KO +500; round 2 KO mentioned
"Ming Zang should dust the side of Allo Menafield. I think that he's knocking him out probably first round."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked May 26, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

AJ is very confident Zhang will win by knockout, citing his first-round KO history and Menifield's recent KO loss to Volkan Oezdemir. He notes Menifield struggles with power punchers and doesn't have elite wrestling or leg kicks. Zhang is 27, a decade younger, and has fast hands. AJ predicts a first-round KO, possibly in the first minute.

Zhang KO at -175; Zhang round 1 KO at +145
"I think Mingyang Zhang is going to find that chin. Menifield's coming off a pretty bad knockout loss 6 months ago to Volkan Oezdemir. Zhang similar to that with the hands, I think gets it done by KO, …"
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked May 18, 2026 (12 days before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

AJ picks Zhang, expecting a first-round KO. He notes Zhang's power, elbows, and hand speed will overwhelm Menifield, who has been knocked out violently in recent losses. AJ thinks Menifield's lack of takedown threat and poor chin will lead to a quick finish.

Zhang Mingyang wins by KO/TKO in round 1
"I'm going with Mingyang Zhang. I think he's about to knock Alonzo Menifield senseless. ... Mingyang Zhang has big knockout power in both hands. He's got nasty elbows."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 29, 2026 (fight day)
Zhang Mingyang

Angelo picks Zhang Mingyang to win by knockout, arguing that Menifield is chinny and has been knocked out in three of his last four losses. He believes Menifield lacks the leg kicks that troubled Zhang against Johnny Walker and that Zhang's power will prevail in a pocket fight.

knockout predicted; consider in lineup but Sergey more likely for KO
"I think Mingyang Jiang finds the finish here. Alonzo Menfield has been knocked out in three of his last four losses."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

Angelo picks Zhang Mingyang because he is too big, too long, and should come forward and find the finish. He notes that Alonzo Menifield is an aging vet with declining speed and chin. However, he is nervous because Zhang lost his last fight to leg kicks.

"I do think Jiang's going to get the finish here. I think he's just too big, too long, and I think he's going to come forward and find the spot."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 24, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

Angelo picks Zhang Mingyang, believing he is faster, has a better chin, and is more powerful than the aging Menifield. He notes that Menifield's leg kicks are not a threat like Johnny Walker's, so Mingyang's durability shouldn't be an issue. He thinks Mingyang will let his hands go and win, though Menifield remains dangerous.

"Mingyang Jiang is the pick. Allonzo's still dangerous at this age, but he's not quite who he used to be."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 26, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

Big Brady picks Zhang Mingyang by first-round knockout, noting that Zhang has never won a fight after the first round, so if Menifield survives five minutes his chances skyrocket. He views Menifield as potentially washed at 38, coming off a KO loss, and having taken a ton of damage. He acknowledges the line is steep at -240 but believes the UFC is setting Zhang up for a win in China.

first round knockout
"I'm going to pick him how he wins fights and that's going to be first round knockout. I think he's going to knock out menfield in the very first round here."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

Cody picks Zhang Mingyang despite acknowledging his cardio issues and the risk if the fight goes past the first round. He highlights Zhang's speed, low calf kicks, and the advantage of fighting in China. Cody notes Menifield's durability issues and that he's been knocked out four times, all in under two rounds. He believes Zhang's game plan of leg kicks and speed will pay dividends, but admits the longer the fight goes, the more trouble Zhang is in.

Zhang Mingyang first round knockout likely; live betting Menifield if it reaches second round
"The low calf kicks I think will pay dividends. The speed advantage will pay dividends, but the longer the fight goes, we're in some serious problem with Menfield."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

Levi picks Zhang Mingyang despite his loss to Johnny Walker, believing the setback was a wake-up call. He thinks Zhang has the length, reach, and firepower to put Menifield away, though he acknowledges Menifield has upset prospects before. Levi expects a knockout.

Zhang Mingyang by KO/TKO; odds: Zhang -250, Menifield +210
"I think he's got the length, he's got the reach, he's got the firepower to come out here and put Allonzo Menfield away."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

Jacob picks Zhang Mingyang because Alonzo Menifield is a smaller light heavyweight and Zhang is a well-rounded 27-year-old. He thinks the UFC gave Zhang a favorable matchup after his loss to Johnny Walker. He believes Zhang will come forward with big elbows and shots.

"I think it's a good bounceback spot for Jiang. You want to take the Johnny Walker and be worried about it. I think it's a completely different fight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked May 23, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Alonzo Menifield

Lucrative James picks Alonzo Menifield as a plus money underdog, citing major red flags on Zhang Mingyang after his loss to Johnny Walker where he showed poor leg kick defense and cardio issues. He notes Menifield's experience, durability, and ability to grit out wins, while Zhang has not faced adversity well. He believes Menifield's power and pressure will be too much, and predicts a finish inside the distance, possibly by submission in round two.

Alonzo Menifield inside the distance, round 2, submission
"I am going to pick Alonzo Menfield to win this fight. I'm gonna pick him to win this fight inside the distance. I'm gonna pick him to win this fight in round two."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Alonzo Menifield

The host picks Alonzo Menifield, especially at plus 210 odds. He believes Menifield will have a better game plan, keep his feet moving, mix it up in the clinch, and potentially go for takedowns. With his atomic power, he expects Menifield to put Zhang Mingyang away within the first two rounds.

plus 210 odds, inside first two rounds
"I believe Menfield is the side here, especially at plus 210. I think he'll be able to come in with a better game plan ... I think we'll see him come through with that here as he puts …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 25, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Alonzo Menifield

The host picks Menifield as an underdog, citing his experience and power. He believes if Menifield avoids Mingyang's early knockout power, he can cruise in deeper waters. He notes Mingyang has never won a fight past the first round and questions his durability. He expects Menifield to counter and knock out Mingyang.

I would rather take the under one and a half or take round one.
"I got to take my chances on Menfield here. There's no way you can tell me that Menfield's not worth it at minus 210."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 27, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Alonzo Menifield

Paul picks Menifield as a value play, acknowledging the risk of a first-round knockout. He notes Menifield's veteran experience, submission grappling advantage, and the possibility of dragging the fight into later rounds. Paul took a small sprinkle on Menifield by submission at +880 and plans to live bet Menifield if he survives the first round. He admits he can't get to -240 on Zhang and is willing to accept the risk.

Menifield by submission +880; Menifield round three prop; live betting Menifield in round two
"I'm gonna pick him for the purposes of this show just because like I just can't get to minus 240 on Jien. If he knocks him out in round one, like so be it."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 26, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Alonzo Menifield

The Guru picks Menifield as an underdog, citing his grit and multiple paths to victory. He notes Menifield has good head movement, power, and grappling with nasty ground and pound. Mingyang starts fast with power and elbows but fades after round one. Menifield can win in any round or by decision.

"I think Manifield wins this fight unless he gets knocked out in the first round."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 20, 2026 (9 days before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

The Guru picks Mingyang Zhang over Alonzo Menifield, citing Zhang's devastating power and Menifield's glass chin. He believes Zhang's fearless pressure will lead to an early knockout, as Menifield tends to stand and trade. He notes Menifield's history of being knocked out by power punchers.

"I'm going to go Mingyang Zhang to win this fight."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 20, 2026 (9 days before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

The MMA Guru picks Zhang Mingyang to win by knockout in the first round. He notes that Zhang's technical boxing is good and he will box from range, while Menifield relies on overhands and cage pushing. He believes Zhang will find boxing success and knock out Menifield, as long as he doesn't get caught by a big shot.

"We're going to see Jang Mman win this fight by knockout in the first round and it should be pretty fun."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Fight 3 VS Heavyweight Scheduled

Sergei Pavlovich

Moneyline
BetRivers -400
KO/TKO
FanDuel -240
Submission
Cloudbet 23.87
Decision
Cloudbet 7.44

Tallison Teixeira

Moneyline
Betfair Exchange +540
KO/TKO
Cloudbet 9.70
Submission
Cloudbet 21.51
Decision
BetRivers +1700
Fighter Stats

Sergei Pavlovich

Age34
Height6' 3"
Reach84.0"
Weight257 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Tallison Teixeira

Age26
Height6' 7"
Reach83.0"
Weight258 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Sergei Pavlovich

4.43SLpM
44.0%Str. Acc.
3.62SApM
55.0%Str. Def.
0.48TD Avg
25.0%TD Acc.
75.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Tallison Teixeira

5.02SLpM
64.0%Str. Acc.
3.86SApM
42.0%Str. Def.
2.48TD Avg
30.0%TD Acc.
0.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (17)
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Sergei Pavlovich

AJ picks Sergei Pavlovich confidently, expecting a knockout despite Pavlovich's recent patient approach. He notes Pavlovich's punching power and underrated wrestling, while Teixeira is hittable and takes risks. AJ thinks Pavlovich will eventually land a big shot, possibly after the over 1.5 rounds mark, but is confident in a KO win.

Sergei Pavlovich by knockout; over 1.5 rounds mentioned as a possibility; Pavlovich decision +500 noted
"I think Sergey Pavich will knock Talison to Sher out, but it may be beyond the over one and a half mark."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked May 26, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Sergei Pavlovich

AJ is confident Pavlovich will win, calling Teixeira not very good and noting his competitive fight with Tai Tuivasa and loss to old Derrick Lewis. He highlights Pavlovich's destruction of Tuivasa and win over Waldo Cortes-Acosta. AJ thinks Pavlovich will knock him out, possibly in round one, but also acknowledges Pavlovich can be patient and go to decision. He calls it a tune-up fight for Pavlovich.

Pavlovich KO at -275; Pavlovich round 1 finish at +135; over 1.5 rounds at +152
"I think Teixera is not very good. ... Sergey Pavlovich on the other hand, you know, the Where's Waldo fight he looked great in. ... I feel like he's going to dominate Tailason to Shera."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Lock picked May 18, 2026 (12 days before fight)
Sergei Pavlovich

AJ calls Pavlovich a lock, citing his terrifying boxing, knockout power, and defensive grappling. He thinks Teixeira is not ready, noting his poor defense and panic grappling. AJ predicts a first-round KO, as Pavlovich has the reach and power to put Teixeira away early.

Sergei Pavlovich wins by KO/TKO in round 1
"The pick is Sergei Pavlovich. Why is Jailton Almeida getting the chance of a lifetime against one of the top heavyweights in the world? ... It's Pavlovich knockout all day."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 29, 2026 (fight day)
Sergei Pavlovich

Angelo confidently picks Sergei Pavlovich by KO, calling Teixeira a 'bum' who only wins because he's big. He notes Pavlovich's power and speed against a lower-level opponent, predicting a quick knockout similar to Derrick Lewis's finish.

KO win predicted; Sergey more likely to get knockout than Zhang
"Sergey Pavik for the KO win."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Sergei Pavlovich

Angelo picks Sergei Pavlovich because he is too fast, too powerful, and too dangerous. He notes that Pavlovich's only losses are to elite fighters and that Tallison Teixeira has poor striking defense. He expects a knockout.

by KO
"He's gonna get knocked out here. Sergey Pavik has only lost three fights in the UFC. The dude lost to Alistair Overim in 2018 when that guy was that guy."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 24, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Sergei Pavlovich

Angelo picks Sergei Pavlovich, citing his speed, power, and experience. He notes that Teixeira struggled against higher competition and doesn't have a good jab like Volkov, who gave Pavlovich trouble. He believes Pavlovich is better everywhere and should find a knockout, though he acknowledges the odds are too rich to bet.

"Serge is going to be the pick. This is a heavyweight fight. Anything can happen, but I do think Sergey gets the dub."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 26, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Sergei Pavlovich

Big Brady is very confident in Pavlovich, calling Teixeira a fraud for failing to submit Tai Tuivasa and gassing out. He believes Pavlovich's power and size will be too much, and Teixeira is defensively irresponsible with tall man's defense. He predicts a first-round knockout, noting Pavlovich has gone to decision in his last three but Teixeira is less durable than Waldo Cortes-Acosta.

first round knockout
"I think Palovich is going to hit this guy extremely hard and knock him out in the first round."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Sergei Pavlovich

Cody sees this as a setup match for Pavlovich to get a highlight-reel knockout. He notes Pavlovich's wrestling background and power, and that Teixeira has been knocked out before (Derrick Lewis). Cody believes Pavlovich will pressure, land overhands, and finish early, putting him back in title contention. He acknowledges the risk of a heavyweight fight but is confident in a vintage performance.

Pavlovich round one knockout likely; fight doesn't go to decision
"Vintage performance pressure in land those overhands. If you want to take him down, go right ahead. But chances are one of them big old shots over the top are going to seriously rock them."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lock picked May 27, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Sergei Pavlovich

Levi is extremely confident in Pavlovich, calling the fight a mismatch. He criticizes Teixeira's poor defense, citing his chin-up, hands-down style exposed against Derrick Lewis and Tai Tuivasa. Levi expects Pavlovich to knock Teixeira out easily.

Sergei Pavlovich by KO/TKO; odds: Pavlovich -600, Teixeira +450
"I think Sergey Pavlovich is gonna come out here and knock Talis and Tara the [__] out."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Sergei Pavlovich

Jacob picks Sergei Pavlovich because Tallison Teixeira is not very good and has terrible striking defense. He notes that Pavlovich is the better striker and that Teixeira's win over Tai Tuivasa was unimpressive. He acknowledges the price is thick but believes Pavlovich should win.

"Definitely it's a thick ass price for for Sergey heavyweights, you know, minus 600. Anything can really happen, but Talson's I mean he's just not very good."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked May 23, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Sergei Pavlovich

Lucrative James is very confident in Pavlovich, calling him a 'home run' in this fight. He criticizes Teixeira's poor defense, cardio issues, and lack of high-level competition, noting that Teixeira struggled against a washed Derrick Lewis and a past-prime Tai Tuivasa. He highlights Pavlovich's power, improved wrestling, and smart fight IQ, referencing his camp with a Russian national boxing team member to prepare for Teixeira's height. He predicts a knockout, believing Pavlovich will land clean and finish early.

Sergei Pavlovich via knockout
"I think Pavlovich is going to run through him in this fight. I don't think it's a hot take saying that."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Sergei Pavlovich

The host picks Sergei Pavlovich, citing his knockout power and speed. He notes Pavlovich has taken a more disciplined approach but is much more explosive and powerful than Teixeira, predicting a first-round knockout.

first round knockout
"I really think it's going to be Pavlovich's knockout power and speed that allows him to find the chin of the Brazilian. ... I think that will lead to the Russian fighting the knockout within the first round."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 25, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Sergei Pavlovich

The host picks Pavlovich, citing his speed, power, and tougher strength of schedule. He believes Pavlovich will stop Teixeira's grappling and find his chin quickly, leading to a knockout. He notes Teixeira's chin is a question mark after being knocked out by Derrick Lewis.

"I really feel Pavlovich's speed will be the big difference maker here. And I don't think we'll see Pavlovich take the composed and disciplined approach that he did in his last two matchups."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Sergei Pavlovich

Paul agrees with Cody, calling it a setup match. He notes Pavlovich's first-round finishes in his first seven UFC fights and that his recent decision losses were against tall fighters (Volkov) but Teixeira is not at that level. Paul expects Pavlovich to pressure and land big shots, finishing Teixeira early.

Pavlovich round one knockout; fight doesn't go to decision
"I think we see a vintage Pavle when he was on his rise type of performance here. I think he kills Talson Tixer."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 26, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Sergei Pavlovich

The Guru picks Pavlovich at a very high clip. He notes Pavlovich has fight-ending power, good boxing combinations, and a surprising reach advantage over the 6'7 Teixeira. Teixeira is athletic and has power but is outmatched everywhere. The only path for Teixeira is an errant knockout shot.

"I feel like Pavlovich wins this very very high clip. I don't see how he wins minutes."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 20, 2026 (9 days before fight)
Sergei Pavlovich

The Guru picks Sergei Pavlovich over Talison Teixeira, calling it a 'hydrogen bomb versus coughing baby' matchup. He believes Pavlovich's power, patience, and cardio will break down Teixeira, who has questionable cardio and has fought low-level competition. He expects Pavlovich to find a late finish after Teixeira slows down.

"I'm taking Sergei Pavlovich."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 20, 2026 (9 days before fight)
Sergei Pavlovich

The MMA Guru picks Sergei Pavlovich to win. He believes Pavlovich will make a comeback and knock out Teixeira. He notes that Pavlovich has experience at a high level and despite recent tentative performances, he should be able to land his punches. He also mentions that Teixeira has been fast-tracked and his wrestling isn't a threat to Pavlovich.

"I think Sergey Pavlovich is going to to make a big comeback here."
Fight Notes

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Fight 4 VS Bantamweight Scheduled

Kai Asakura

Moneyline
BetRivers -265
KO/TKO
Cloudbet 2.52
Submission
FanDuel +1500
Decision
BetRivers +260

Cameron Smotherman

Moneyline
Betfair Exchange +255
KO/TKO
Cloudbet 7.70
Submission
Cloudbet 20.68
Decision
BetRivers +650
Fighter Stats

Kai Asakura

Age32
Height5' 8"
Reach69.0"
Weight125 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Cameron Smotherman

Age28
Height5' 9"
Reach69.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Kai Asakura

2.27SLpM
32.0%Str. Acc.
3.53SApM
52.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
50.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Cameron Smotherman

4.07SLpM
37.0%Str. Acc.
3.52SApM
58.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
62.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (16)
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked May 26, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Kai Asakura

AJ picks Asakura (referred to as Caio Borralho in transcript, but context indicates Kai Asakura) because of his snappy kickboxing, dangerous knees, and body kicks. He notes Smotherman is a decent boxer but has no offensive grappling (zero takedowns in UFC) and had a terrible weight cut. AJ thinks Asakura's speed advantage will show and predicts a knockout, possibly via knee.

Asakura KO
"I think Caio Borralho should absolutely have a speed advantage that shows in a big way. And I'm even willing to say Caio Borralho shuts Smotherman off, dude. ... I'm going Caio Borralho KO in this one."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked May 18, 2026 (12 days before fight)
Kai Asakura

AJ picks Asakura, believing he will be reinvigorated at bantamweight after struggling with the cut to flyweight. He notes Asakura's speed, kickboxing, and knockout power will be too much for Smotherman, who is a lower-tier opponent. AJ expects a KO win, possibly in highlight-reel fashion.

Kai Asakura wins by KO/TKO
"I'm picking Kai Asakura, first thing. Just remember something. Asakura's, you know, pre-UFC run when he was looking like this striking maestro, when he had all of this hype from Rizin, it took place at 135."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 29, 2026 (fight day)
Kai Asakura

Angelo picks Kai Asakura, believing his striking is superior to Smotherman's and that Smotherman won't attempt takedowns, negating Asakura's weakness. He notes Asakura is winless in the UFC but should win if he doesn't have to defend takedowns.

"Kai Asakur is the pick, but I don't know if I could throw a guy in my lineup that is just winless in the UFC and has such a glaring hole in his game."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Kai Asakura

Angelo picks Kai Asakura because he is the better striker in a striking matchup. He notes that Cameron Smotherman has zero recorded takedown attempts in the UFC and is coming off a bad weight cut. He thinks Kai's speed and footwork will be the difference, but he is not betting due to the odds.

"Kai Asakur is gonna be the pick. I think Kai Sakura gets his first win. I'm not betting on a winless dude at minus 253."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 24, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Kai Asakura

Angelo picks Kai Asakura because he is the superior striker and Smotherman has no takedown attempts in the UFC. He notes that Asakura's takedown defense is nonexistent, but since Smotherman doesn't wrestle, Asakura should win on the feet. He refuses to bet on Asakura at -300 due to the takedown vulnerability, but he believes Asakura will win.

"Ka Sakura has to be the pick. Has to be the pick. But am I going to bet on a guy at minus 300 who I'm 100% sure cannot defend a takedown? No."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 26, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Kai Asakura

Big Brady picks Asakura by first-round KO, viewing this as a massive step down in competition after Asakura's title fight debut. He notes Smotherman has a poor chin, has been knocked out multiple times, and recently fell face-first on the scale. He believes Asakura is a much better striker and grappler, and that Smotherman can't grapple, so the fight stays on the feet where Asakura has power and quick hands.

first round knockout
"Give me Asakura to win this fight by first round knockout. I think somebody's getting knocked out, so violence is probably the answer."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Kai Asakura

Cody picks Asakura, citing his speed and striking advantage over Smotherman. He notes Smotherman's bad weight cuts, suspect durability (KO loss in 13 seconds), and poor wrestling. Cody believes Asakura can piece him up on the feet and potentially knock him out. He also mentions that Asakura's move up to 135 may help with weight cut and speed.

Asakura by knockout; fight doesn't go to decision
"Asakura is a better striker than he just is. And he's way faster. So that's the only advantage of him coming up."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Kai Asakura

Levi picks Asakura, believing he has better boxing and can knock out Smotherman. He dismisses Smotherman's UFC credentials, noting his knockout loss to Harlampos Gregorio and weight-cutting issues. Levi thinks Asakura will finally showcase his hype.

Kai Asakura by KO/TKO; also mentioned submission possibility; odds: Asakura -250, Smotherman +210
"I think Kai Asakura is going to knock out Smotherman, but if he wants to test out his grappling, I think he can come out here and submit Smotherman."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Kai Asakura

Jacob picks Kai Asakura because he should have the speed advantage and be more dynamic. He notes that Cameron Smotherman tends to plant his feet and look for counters, which could lead to inactivity. He warns that Kai should not hang out in the pocket because Cameron has power.

"I'm gonna pick Kai as much as I hate it because he is gonna be a little bit more live with the footwork and stuff like that."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked May 23, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Kai Asakura

Lucrative James picks Kai Asakura but is not confident, calling it a 'very strange fight' and disliking the line. He notes Asakura's poor UFC performances, including submission losses, and questions his move up to bantamweight where he loses the size advantage. He sees Asakura's path via knockout due to power and speed, but worries if he doesn't get the finish, Smotherman's boxing could win rounds. He mentions Smotherman's fainting incident and chin issues but still leans Asakura as a pure pick, though he would look at props or even bet Smotherman if the line moves.

Kai Asakura via knockout, flying knee
"I'm going to take Kai Isakura as a pure pick here. I'm going to take him via knockout, like flying knee or something like that. But ultimately, it's not a confident prediction."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Kai Asakura

The host believes this is the most favorable matchup for Kai Asakura in the UFC, expecting him to utilize his flashy striking. Despite Smotherman's technical striking, Asakura's speed and power will be the difference, leading to a knockout.

by knockout
"I think the speed and power of Asakuro will be the differencemaker here, leading to the Japanese fighter earning his first win in the UFC by knockout."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 25, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Kai Asakura

The host picks Asakura, believing his power and speed will be too much for Smotherman. He notes Asakura is more dangerous in the knockout department and may have a speed advantage. He expects Asakura to land big shots and potentially put Smotherman away, despite Smotherman's technical edge.

"I believe Asakor will be uh the more effective and damaging striker. So much so that he ends up actually getting the knockout here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked May 27, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Kai Asakura

Paul is tempted by Asakura but hesitant due to his age (32) and move up in weight. He notes Asakura's losses in rematches and his UFC loss to Pantoja. However, he acknowledges Smotherman's poor weight cut and durability issues, and that Asakura is the better striker. Paul leans Asakura but is not fully confident.

"I'm tempted to use Asakura a little too heavy this week... but again money's coming in on him and at 275 for a striker versus striker I don't know there's enough that could go wrong."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 26, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Kai Asakura

The Guru picks Asakura due to superior grappling and striking. He notes Asakura has good knees, combinations, and recovers quickly when hurt. Smotherman is a striker who hates grappling and has decent takedown defense but will be outmatched on the ground. Asakura should win comfortably.

"Kaioakur should win this fight. I'd be surprised if he doesn't."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 20, 2026 (9 days before fight)
Kai Asakura

The Guru picks Kai Asakura over Cameron Smotherman, citing Kai's speed and power advantage. He believes Kai's explosive striking will outclass Smotherman's volume-based boxing. He notes Smotherman's back-to-back losses and expects Kai to land the bigger shots.

"I'm taking Kai Asakura."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 20, 2026 (9 days before fight)
Kai Asakura

The MMA Guru picks Kai Asakura to win by knockout. He notes that Asakura is a step up in competition for Smotherman, and Asakura's striking is more dynamic and powerful. He believes Asakura will keep the fight on the feet and land a knockout, as Smotherman is mostly a boxer and small for the weight class.

"I think he's going to be the much better, more powerful, more dynamic striker and he's going to win by knockout against Smotherman in this fight."
Fight Notes

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Fight 5 VS Welterweight Scheduled

Jake Matthews

Moneyline
BetWay -350
KO/TKO
Cloudbet 3.69
Submission
FanDuel +390
Decision
BetRivers +235

Carlston Harris

Moneyline
Betfair Sportsbook +6600
KO/TKO
BetRivers +1500
Submission
Unibet +1050
Decision
Unibet +1100
Fighter Stats

Jake Matthews

Age31
Height5' 11"
Reach73.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Carlston Harris

Age38
Height6' 0"
Reach76.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Jake Matthews

3.34SLpM
43.0%Str. Acc.
2.62SApM
60.0%Str. Def.
1.44TD Avg
41.0%TD Acc.
64.0%TD Def.
0.8Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Carlston Harris

3.79SLpM
43.0%Str. Acc.
3.46SApM
54.0%Str. Def.
1.46TD Avg
22.0%TD Acc.
55.0%TD Def.
0.6Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (16)
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

AJ picks Jake Matthews confidently, calling Carlston Harris washed and past his prime at 38. He notes Harris's slow, herky-jerky striking and recent losses, while Matthews is a fluid kickboxer with high-level grappling. AJ predicts a Matthews finish, possibly by knockout or submission, given Matthews's recent form and Harris's vulnerabilities.

Jake Matthews by finish +100 mentioned as a prop; moneyline at -350
"I actually think Jake Matthews can secure a knockout here. I feel like potential club and sub, too."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked May 26, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

AJ is confident Matthews will dominate, calling Harris washed and noting his poor recent performances. He highlights Matthews' fast hands and good combos, while Harris is slow and sloppy. AJ predicts a knockout, possibly in the first or second round, and thinks Matthews will show out. He also notes the travel advantage for Matthews (Australia) vs Harris (Brazil).

Matthews finish at -105; Matthews KO at +210; Matthews sub at +375
"I think Matthews to knock him out, dude. ... I think Matthews is going to show out, and I'm really looking forward to seeing Jake Matthews get back on business."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Lock picked May 18, 2026 (12 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

AJ calls Matthews an 'absolute lock,' believing Harris is washed and old. He notes Matthews is in his prime with clean kickboxing and strong wrestling, while Harris has looked slow and sloppy recently. AJ predicts a finish, possibly by KO or submission, given Harris's decline and short notice.

Jake Matthews wins by KO/TKO or submission
"I'm picking Jake Matthews. I think that Carlston Harris is washed, okay? I think he has fallen off in a massive way over the past couple of years. ... Jake Matthews is an absolute lock on this card."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 29, 2026 (fight day)
Jake Matthews

Angelo picks Jake Matthews to win and finish, noting that Harris is past his prime, less durable, and stepping up on short notice. He believes Matthews is well-rounded and should find a finish.

finish predicted; Jake Matthews in lineup
"Not only do I think Jake Matthews wins, I think Jake Matthews finds a finish. And I will put Jake Matthews in a lineup."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

Angelo picks Jake Matthews because he is the better overall fighter, younger, and has more energy. He notes that Matthews is the better wrestler and striker, and that Carlston Harris is past his prime. He is confident and expects bets on Matthews.

"Jake Matthews is the pick. Frankly, there's definitely going to be some bets on him. He's one of my more confident picks on this card."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 24, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

Angelo is very confident that Jake Matthews will win, citing his power, experience, and the fact that Carlston Harris is coming off a brutal knockout loss. He believes Matthews is the better overall fighter and expects the line to move heavily in Matthews' favor. He advises betting on Matthews now before the odds shorten.

bet now before odds move to -600 or -700
"Jake Matthews wins this fight. Then we have Kai Asakura taking on Cameron Smotherman."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 26, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

Big Brady picks Jake Matthews but is hesitant, calling him the biggest ball dropper and inconsistent. He notes Harris is a front choke merchant and Matthews was just front choked by Neil Magny. He believes Matthews should win but warns he might find a way to lose. He predicts a decision win, saying Matthews should finish but probably won't.

"I'm going Jake Matthews. I'm taking Jake Matthews to win this fight by decision. He should finish, but he probably won't."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked May 27, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Carlston Harris

Cody picks Harris as a live underdog, citing Matthews' history of getting submitted in the third round when tired. He notes Harris' submission skills (anaconda choke) and that Matthews has been submitted four times in the UFC. Cody believes Harris can catch Matthews late if he survives the early rounds. He also mentions that Matthews' wins are over low-level competition.

Harris by submission +880; live bet Harris in third round
"Carlson Harris has done this a few times himself. the Jeremiah Wells fight. He's probably down two rounds and he catches him with an and aaconda choke and sleeps him unconscious."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked May 27, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

Levi picks Matthews but with low confidence, noting his history of choking in big spots. He acknowledges Harris's front choke threat and Matthews's recent submission loss. However, he believes Harris's bad chin and age give Matthews a good chance to knock him out.

Jake Matthews by KO/TKO mentioned as possible; odds: Matthews -350, Harris +285
"I'm going to pick Jake Matthews. I just think timing and momentum is on his side."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Hesitant picked May 27, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

Jacob picks Jake Matthews but is hesitant because he feels this fight could be a trap. He notes that Carlston Harris is unorthodox and has power, and Matthews has been submitted before. He warns that Matthews might not use his wrestling and could get caught.

"Something feels weird about this one. I'm going Jake is he's got to be the pick obviously, but as far as like, oh, put him in every parlay and he's going to smoke this guy. Carlson sucks. It's …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked May 23, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

Lucrative James picks Jake Matthews, citing his youth (31 vs 38), better boxing, head movement, and overall skill set compared to Carlston Harris. He notes Matthews' unfortunate last loss due to a referee error but believes he is the better fighter everywhere. He highlights Harris's poor durability, cardio, and recent knockout losses, and expects Matthews to land clean shots and get a knockout. He also mentions Matthews' improved chin and comfort in the UFC.

Jake Matthews via knockout
"I think Jake Matthews gets a knockout in this fight. I don't see Carson Harris lasting."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

The host picks Jake Matthews over short-notice replacement Carlston Harris, noting Matthews' sharper striking and Harris' over-aggressiveness. He expects Matthews to counter with big shots and eventually find a knockout.

by knockout
"I think he has sharper striking and Harris a little bit over aggressive at times. I think we'll see Matthews take advantage of that, countering him with big shots and eventually finding a knockout of his own."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 25, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

The host picks Matthews to win inside the distance, believing his well-rounded game and experience will overcome Harris's reckless striking. He notes Harris is old, hasn't fought in over a year, and is on a two-fight losing streak by knockout. He expects Matthews to counter and outgrapple Harris, leading to a knockout.

"I think there will be plenty of openings for Matthews to land big shots on Harris and I think that will lead to an eventual knockout victory for Matthews."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 27, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Carlston Harris

Paul also leans Harris, noting that Matthews is overpriced at -350 and has a history of late-round submissions. He mentions Harris' striking is decent and he has a knack for submissions. Paul is not confident enough to bet pre-flop but sees live betting value. He also notes that Matthews' wins are against low-level opponents.

Harris by submission +880; live bet Harris in third round
"If I was forced to click a uh a side of this, it would be the plus 285 on Carlson."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 26, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

The Guru picks Matthews to win more often than not. He notes Matthews is a solid boxer with good movement and accuracy, plus decent grappling and ground and pound. Harris has power and an anaconda choke threat but has been less active lately. He thinks if Harris wins, it's via anaconda choke.

Carlston Harris sub prop (anaconda choke) if betting
"For me, I think more often than not, Jake Matthews wins this fight, but I do think if Carlson Harris wins, it's via Anaconda choke."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 20, 2026 (9 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

The Guru picks Jake Matthews over Carlston Harris, citing Matthews' youth, athleticism, and technical striking. He believes Matthews' footwork and accuracy will pick apart Harris, who is hittable and fading. He notes Harris' back-to-back KO losses and Matthews' bounce-back potential.

"I'm going to go Jake Matthews to win here."
Fight Notes

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Fight 6 VS Flyweight Scheduled

Alex Perez

Moneyline
Caesars -120
KO/TKO
FanDuel +600
Submission
Cloudbet 4.75
Decision
BetRivers +275

Sumudaerji

Moneyline
FanDuel +132
KO/TKO
Cloudbet 9.21
Submission
FanDuel +1300
Decision
Cloudbet 3.93
Fighter Stats

Alex Perez

Age34
Height5' 6"
Reach65.0"
Weight125 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Sumudaerji

Age30
Height5' 8"
Reach72"
Weight125 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Career Averages - Alex Perez

4.41SLpM
46.0%Str. Acc.
3.2SApM
59.0%Str. Def.
2.21TD Avg
48.0%TD Acc.
75.0%TD Def.
0.7Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Sumudaerji

4.43SLpM
50.0%Str. Acc.
2.35SApM
62.0%Str. Def.
0.67TD Avg
35.0%TD Acc.
72.0%TD Def.
0.5Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (17)
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Sumudaerji

AJ picks Sumudaerji as his underdog lock of the week. He highlights Sumudaerji's length advantage (72-inch reach vs 65.5), improved takedown defense, and distance striking as key factors. He questions Alex Perez's consistency, weight cutting issues, and momentum, noting Perez has only one win since 2021. AJ predicts a decision win for Sumudaerji, citing his technical striking and defensive grappling.

Sumudaerji decision +275 mentioned as a prop; moneyline at +115 is the lock
"Sumaderi is going to give Alex Perez stylistic trouble with stand up and eliminate the takedown threat."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked May 26, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Sumudaerji

AJ picks Sumudaerji, citing his length as an X-factor and his momentum from recent evolution. He notes Sumudaerji's takedown defense has improved significantly, and his striking at range will cause problems for Perez. AJ thinks Perez will have to resort to wrestling, which won't be easy. He predicts Sumudaerji's technicality will lead to a decision win, outstriking Perez and quieting the grappling flaw narrative.

Sumudaerji at +120; Sumudaerji decision
"I think Sumudaerji's length is an X factor. Also, Sumudaerji's momentum is an X factor. We've seen an evolution from Sumudaerji to the guy that couldn't really stop the grappling onslaught to the guy hitting takedowns on Jesus …"
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked May 18, 2026 (12 days before fight)
Sumudaerji

AJ picks Sumudaerji, citing his southpaw stance, clean boxing, distance management, and improved wrestling defense. He thinks Perez's calf kicks are neutralized by the stance switch, and Perez may have weight-cut issues. AJ expects Sumudaerji to win a decision in China, using his reach and precision to outpoint Perez.

"I just got a feeling it's Sum Dargi's time now. I'm going to pick Sum Dargi to get it done. ... Sumudarji's striking is different. He's a southpaw with a very clean one-two, with very good footwork, with …"
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 29, 2026 (fight day)
Alex Perez

Angelo picks Alex Perez, arguing that Perez's losses are to elite fighters (Figueiredo, Pantoja, etc.) and that he is a very good fighter. He expects Perez to win a decision, though he notes Perez may not score enough for DraftKings.

decision win expected; not in DraftKings lineup
"Alex Perez is going to be the pick. Alex Perez scores like He's not going to knock out Sumergy. He's not going to score a gazillion points. I think Alex Perez just wins a decision here."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Alex Perez

Angelo picks Alex Perez because he is the better fighter with power and footwork. He notes that Perez has fought a murderer's row and is coming off a knockout win. He thinks the power will be the difference, but he is not betting on the fight.

"I think Alex win this fight. I'm going to pick him to win here. I'm not going to bet on him here though."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 24, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Alex Perez

Angelo picks Alex Perez, believing he is the better overall fighter with more power, better footwork, and higher fight IQ. He acknowledges that Sumudaerji has speed and volume, but thinks Perez's experience against top competition and his striking advantage will be the difference. He considers the odds appropriate.

"Alex Perez is the pick. I say higher fight IQ, but this is a [ __ ] who is about to win a fight as an underdog."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 26, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Alex Perez

Big Brady picks Alex Perez by second-round submission, citing Perez's wrestling advantage and Sumudaerji's poor durability and grappling. He notes Sumudaerji's wins are weak and he has been finished six times, while Perez has lost only to elite fighters. He believes Perez will take him down and choke him out, though he acknowledges Perez is a 'ball dropper' who has lost to top competition.

second round submission
"Give me Perez to win this fight by submission. I think he's going to take down Sumadargi and choke him out."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked May 27, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Sumudaerji

Cody leans Sumudaerji due to Perez's history of injuries, weight misses, and cardio issues. He notes that Perez often fades in later rounds and has pulled out of many fights. Sumudaerji is younger, taller, and fighting in China. Cody believes if Perez doesn't finish early, Sumudaerji can take over. He is waiting for weigh-ins to decide.

Live bet Sumudaerji if fight goes past first round; Sumudaerji by decision or late finish
"What I'm leaning towards is this things being set up for Sumadiri to have a competitive first round, take over in the second, finish the deal in the third."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Sumudaerji

Levi picks the underdog Sumudaerji, citing his improved grappling defense and overall game. He criticizes Perez for missing weight, quitting in fights, and being inconsistent. Levi believes Sumudaerji can pick Perez apart and possibly submit him.

Sumudaerji by submission mentioned as possible; odds: Perez -140, Sumudaerji +120
"I'm going to take the underdog here. I might take Sumu Durgy to come out here, upset Alex Perez, pick him apart."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Alex Perez

Jacob picks Alex Perez because he is the better fighter and Sumudaerji has not faced someone of Perez's level. He notes that Perez has wrestling and striking, while Sumudaerji's wins are against lower-level opponents. He uses a graph analogy to explain that Perez is above Sumudaerji in skill.

"I'm buying into Alex Perez. I was anti- Alex Perez. Obviously, Charles is my boy, but I was surprised with the power, the followup shots."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked May 23, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Alex Perez

Lucrative James leans Alex Perez, citing his elite wrestling which should exploit Sumudaerji's grappling weakness. He notes that Perez can dominate on the ground, while Sumudaerji is a much better striker but Perez can compete there. He worries about Perez's history of mental lapses and submission losses but believes his recent frequent fighting helps his mental game. He predicts a submission win, though he is not confident and may not bet the fight.

Alex Perez via submission
"I'm picking Alex Perez in this fight. I'll say he gets it done via submission cuz Sumaji loves to get submitted."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Alex Perez

The host loves Alex Perez in this spot, citing his continuous improvement and recent knockout win. He expects Perez to bring an aggressive striking game and possibly take the fight to the mat, finishing Sumudaerji inside the distance via knockout or submission.

inside the distance
"I love me some Perez in this spot... I think he'll be able to find that big shot to put Sumer Dargy down. And it's either going to be a club and sub or just a straightup knockout. …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 25, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Alex Perez

The host picks Perez to win inside the distance, citing his aggression, durability, and improved striking. He believes Perez will crowd Sumudaerji's space and mix in takedowns, leading to a finish. He loves the minus 140 line and thinks Perez's confidence is sky-high after knocking out Charles Johnson.

I love this minus 140 number on him.
"I'm going to go Alex Perez inside the distance."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked May 27, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Alex Perez

Paul is torn but leans Perez skill-wise, noting that when Perez is on, he is a top-10 flyweight. However, he acknowledges Perez's mental lapses, injuries, and weight issues. Paul thinks -133 could be value if Perez shows up, but he is wary of the China factor and Sumudaerji's reach. He is not confident and may wait for weigh-ins.

Perez by submission; live bet Sumudaerji if fight goes long
"I'm ready to hurt again with Alex Perez. But something about this line stinks."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked May 26, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Alex Perez

The Guru picks Perez due to his wrestling advantage. He notes Sumudaerji is a good striker with improved grappling but still vulnerable to submissions. If Perez gets takedowns, he should dominate on the ground. However, he expresses uncertainty about which version of Perez shows up and says the striking is competitive.

"I got to take Alex Perez for that reason. But at the same time, wow, come on. It's Alex Perez. You never really know what you're going to get."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 20, 2026 (9 days before fight)
Sumudaerji

The Guru picks Su Mudaerji (Sumudaerji) over Alex Perez, citing Mudaerji's length, patience, and sniping ability. He believes Mudaerji's range control and punishing jabs will neutralize Perez's pressure. He notes Mudaerji's improved wrestling and is surprised he is an underdog.

surprised he's an underdog
"I'm picking Su Mudaerji all day here."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 20, 2026 (9 days before fight)
Alex Perez

The MMA Guru picks Alex Perez to win by knockout. He notes that Sumudaerji needs patient fighters who stand in front of him, but Perez is aggressive with power and offensive wrestling. He believes Perez will pressure and land big shots, knocking out Sumudaerji, who has been hurt before.

"I think Alex Perez is going to come forward. And as much as I love Sumegi, I think he's going to knock him out, man."
Fight Notes
BR
brian 2 weeks, 2 days ago

NOT

Fight 7 VS Middleweight Scheduled

Yi Sak Lee

Moneyline
Pinnacle +167
KO/TKO
Cloudbet 6.96
Submission
BetRivers +650
Decision
Cloudbet 7.54

Luis Felipe Dias

Moneyline
BetWay -150
KO/TKO
BetRivers +525
Submission
Cloudbet 3.30
Decision
Cloudbet 5.11
Fighter Stats

Yi Sak Lee

Age26
HeightN/A
ReachN/A
Weight185 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Luis Felipe Dias

Age31
Height5' 10"
Reach74"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceN/A

Career Averages - Yi Sak Lee

0.0SLpM
0.0%Str. Acc.
0.0SApM
0.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
0.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Luis Felipe Dias

1.77SLpM
38.0%Str. Acc.
2.7SApM
52.0%Str. Def.
6.24TD Avg
57.0%TD Acc.
66.0%TD Def.
1.6Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (17)
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked May 26, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Luis Felipe Dias

AJ picks Diaz because of his freakish physicality and pressure fighting. He notes Lee had a loss to a journeyman and looks unathletic, while Diaz is a bully with strong ground skills. AJ thinks Diaz will outwork Lee physically, possibly via ground and pound or submission, and that Lee won't have the tank to survive Diaz's early strength storm.

Diaz on cards +255; Diaz by sub +265; Lee finish +215; over 1.5 rounds -125
"I think that Diaz is able to outwork him physically. His ground skills are going to be strong and top control-based. He's a [ __ ] bully, dude."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked May 18, 2026 (12 days before fight)
Luis Felipe Dias

AJ picks Dias, calling him a 'jacked freakish roided up Brazilian monster grappler' with immense strength and wrestling. He thinks Dias will take Lee down and beat him up, possibly by submission or TKO. AJ is skeptical of Lee's unproven skills and physicality.

Luis Felipe Dias wins by submission or TKO
"I'm going with Luis Felipe Diaz, who just recently won in the Contender Series. I think he's on a boatload of [ __ ] steroids, okay? I think he's on steroids, bro."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked May 29, 2026 (fight day)
Luis Felipe Dias

Angelo picks Luis Felipe Dias, believing he can control where the fight goes with his takedowns. He notes both fighters are grapplers with mediocre wrestling, but Dias's shorter, thicker build may give him an advantage in shooting first. He is not insanely confident but thinks Dias will score well in DraftKings.

decent DraftKings play if he wins as expected
"I'm going to go with Luis Felipe Diaz here because I think he's the one who can control where this fight goes."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 27, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Luis Felipe Dias

Angelo leans towards Diaz because he is stronger and lower to the ground, making it harder for Lee to get takedowns. He thinks Diaz will get his own takedowns and work ground and pound. However, he cannot bet due to too many unknowns.

"I'm going to slightly lean Diaz here because despite him being the smaller fighter in stature, I think he's stronger."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 24, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Luis Felipe Dias

Angelo slightly leans toward Luis Felipe Dias, believing his strength and lower-level takedown will be effective against Yi Sak Lee's bully style. He notes that neither fighter is a good wrestler, but he thinks Dias's grappling and willingness to bomb on the feet give him the edge. He cannot bet on this fight due to too many unknowns.

"I am going to slightly lean Diaz here. Diaz is it?"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 26, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Luis Felipe Dias

Big Brady picks Luis Felipe Dias by first-round submission, despite calling the fight potentially the lowest level in UFC history. He notes Dias has a huge grappling advantage and is a black belt, while Yi Sak Lee is one of the worst grapplers he's ever seen, losing to a 'hot dog vendor.' He warns that Dias has terrible cardio and if the fight goes past the first round, the bet looks bad.

first round submission
"I'm going Luis Filipe Diaz to win this fight and win it by first round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Luis Felipe Dias

Cody picks Dias despite acknowledging he is not a great fighter. He notes Dias' physicality, power, and size advantage. Lee comes from a judo base but has poor striking and lacks explosion. Cody believes Dias will land a big shot or use his strength to win. He is concerned about Dias' PED use but thinks he is good enough to win.

"He's not good, but he's good enough to win this fight. I got Luis Diaz."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 28, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Luis Felipe Dias

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Luis Felipe Dias. He acknowledges Yi Sak Lee could be a secret super-soldier but considers it unlikely. Dias is the experienced, finished product, while Lee's career has been hidden because he is not ready.

"I will take the experienced guy, Luis Felipe Dias."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked May 27, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Yi Sak Lee

Jacob picks Lee as a dog because he was unimpressed with Diaz in his Contender Series fight, noting that Diaz struggled against a low-level opponent and gassed. He thinks Lee can weather the early storm and possibly finish Diaz.

"I'm taking a shot on the dog here just because I was very unimpressed with Luis Diaz."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked May 23, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Luis Felipe Dias

Lucrative James is very confident in Luis Felipe Dias, calling Yi Sak Lee a 'very poor MMA fighter' with no discernible skills. He notes Dias' good jiu-jitsu and physical wrestling, while Lee has poor boxing, takedown defense, and was submitted in his last loss. He predicts Dias will win via submission easily, despite Dias' cardio and bodybuilder build concerns.

Luis Felipe Dias via submission
"I can't pick anyone else but Luis Felipe Diaz. So, yeah, Luis Felipe Diaz via submission."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Luis Felipe Dias

The host likes the Brazilian Luis Felipe Dias, believing he can stop the grappling of Yi Sak Lee and land big shots, potentially using his BJJ black belt. He predicts a knockout for Dias over the Korean newcomer.

by knockout
"I like the Brazilian in this spot as I believe he'll be able to stop the grappling of the Korean fighter and I think that will allow Diaz to really put it on Lee and I think we'll …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 25, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Luis Felipe Dias

The host picks Diaz, believing his striking and grappling defense will cause Lee to slow down faster. He notes both have cardio issues but expects Diaz to be the better striker and to find a knockout. He is not high on Lee's strength of schedule and thinks Diaz provides legitimate resistance.

"I'm going to go with Diaz here. I think he eventually finds a knockout over Lee."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Luis Felipe Dias

Paul agrees with Cody, calling Lee 'horrible' and noting Dias' physicality edge. He mentions Dias' jiu-jitsu and power. Paul is concerned about Dias' PED use but thinks he will win. He also notes that Lee's striking is poor and he relies on judo trips, which may not work against a bigger opponent.

"I kind of agree. I watched Eaceline. I was just like, 'This guy's horrible.' And at least we have a physicality edge in Luis Felipe Diaz."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked May 26, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Yi Sak Lee

The Guru picks Lee based on geographical advantage and grappling. He notes Lee is an aggressive striker with low hands but has good upper body throws and ground and pound. Dias has decent power and submissions but struggles to get takedowns and can be held down. He admits low confidence and calls it a 'grasping at straws' pick.

"I'm going to side with Lee because we're closer to the part of the world that he lives in and I feel like it's going to be less jet lag on him."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked May 20, 2026 (9 days before fight)
Yi Sak Lee

The Guru picks Youssouf Ly (Yi Sak Lee) in a tough fight, citing his judo background and better cardio. He believes Ly can survive Diaz's early bursts and take over late as Diaz fades. He notes both fighters are unproven but favors Ly's potential and durability.

"But I ended up going with Y Sauk Lee."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 20, 2026 (9 days before fight)
Luis Felipe Dias

The MMA Guru picks Luis Felipe Dias to win by submission. He is surprised to be picking Dias, but believes Dias can outgrapple Yi Sak Lee, who has poor defensive grappling and cardio. He notes that Dias has put on muscle and despite his own poor striking defense, he should be able to submit Lee.

value at minus 155
"I think he's a lot of value at minus 155. Louis Fed is terrible. ... I think he's going to submit exactly."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 28, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Luis Felipe Dias

Zane picks Luis Felipe Dias because he has twice the experience and wins over more experienced opponents, while Yi Sak Lee has been carefully protected against low-level competition. Dias is a finished product with a powerful grappling game, though his striking is cumbersome. Zane notes Dias is undersized and not an exciting prospect, but he looks much more ready for this fight.

Odds mentioned: Dias -170, Lee +145
"I just have to take Luis Felipe Dias: he has twice the experience, wins over more experienced opponents, and looks much more ready for this kind of fight."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Fight 8 VS Welterweight Scheduled

Ding Meng

Moneyline
Matchbook -110
KO/TKO
Cloudbet 2.89
Submission
Cloudbet 22.31
Decision
FanDuel +450

Jose Henrique

Moneyline
Unibet Eu +128
KO/TKO
Cloudbet 5.50
Submission
Cloudbet 11.22
Decision
Cloudbet 4.02
Fighter Stats

Ding Meng

Age31
Height6' 2"
Reach73"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Jose Henrique

Age24
Height6' 3"
Reach79"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Ding Meng

3.4SLpM
50.0%Str. Acc.
3.87SApM
48.0%Str. Def.
1.0TD Avg
50.0%TD Acc.
0.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Jose Henrique

3.45SLpM
43.0%Str. Acc.
5.79SApM
38.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
0.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (18)
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Lean picked May 27, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Jose Henrique

AJ picks Jose Henrique as a slight underdog, citing his Muay Thai edge and close-range violence with knees and elbows. He notes that Ding Meng smothers his shots and has a bad habit of clinching, which plays into Henrique's strengths. AJ predicts a late stoppage, possibly in round three, but acknowledges it's a close fight.

Henrique and Ding to go over 1.5 rounds -170 mentioned as a prop; moneyline at +105
"I think that Henrique is live for like a third round finish of Mang Ding."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Lean picked May 26, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Jose Henrique

AJ likes Jose Henrique's tricky style, noting he is a Nova Uniao prospect with heavy hands and good elbows. He thinks Henrique's close-range weapons (elbows, knees) will be effective against Meng Ding, who smothers his shots and ends up in the clinch. AJ also questions Meng Ding's age, suspecting he is older than listed. He predicts Henrique finds a finish in a fun fight.

"I like Jose Henrique in this one. ... I'm going to say Henrique finds a finish in a fun fight."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked May 18, 2026 (12 days before fight)
Jose Henrique

AJ picks Henrique, citing his youth (24), length, and violent striking style. He thinks Henrique's Thai clinch, elbows, and knees will be too much for the older Ding Meng, who he suspects is older than listed. AJ expects a KO win for Henrique, noting Ding's aggressive style plays into Henrique's brawling strengths.

Jose Henrique wins by KO/TKO
"I'm going with Jose Henrique. He got knocked out by Yusaku Kinoshita almost four years ago now. I know that's a red flag, and people might auto pick against him because of it. But, Mang Ding got dominated …"
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 29, 2026 (fight day)
Ding Meng

Angelo picks Ding Meng, calling him a 'complete savage' with 28 knockout wins. He believes Jose Henrique is too hittable and that Ding's power and aggression will lead to a finish or high score. He is surprised by the pricing and thinks Ding is a discount.

finish possible; will be in lineup; solid discount
"Mang Ding is the pick. He will be in my lineup and I think we're getting just a solid discount in this matchup."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Ding Meng

Angelo picks Ding Meng because he has a ton of experience, is a menace, and is too dangerous. He notes that Ding has 28 knockout wins and is a much larger favorite than the odds suggest. He bet on Ding at minus 115.

"I like Mang here. I did bet on him. I bet on him at minus 115. I am surprised that this is even How the hell is he just a slight favorite?"
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 24, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Ding Meng

Angelo is confident that Ding Meng will win, citing his experience, power, and aggressive style. He notes that Henrique relies on wearing opponents down, but Ding is too dangerous and too good a grappler to be caught in that game. He has already placed a half-unit bet on Ding at -115 and expects the line to continue moving.

bet 0.5 units on Ding at -115
"Mang is the pick. And I threw a half a unit on him at minus 115."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 26, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Ding Meng

Big Brady picks Ding Meng by second-round knockout, expecting a sloppy brawl. He describes Ding as a marauder who comes forward, eats punches, and breaks opponents, with 28 career KOs. He criticizes Henrique's defense, chin, and backing-up style, predicting Henrique gets knocked out brutally.

second round knockout
"I'm going Ding Ming to win this fight by second round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Jose Henrique

Cody picks Henrique, citing his youth (24), height (6'3), reach (79 in), and potential. He notes that Ding is a 45-fight veteran who hasn't improved and is only on the card because it's in China. Henrique was supposed to fight a better opponent (Charles Radtke) and has had a full camp. Cody believes Henrique's length and work rate will be too much for Ding.

Henrique moneyline; Henrique by decision or late finish
"I think Enrique wins this fight and it's a good enough uh money line that I I would play it."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 28, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Jose Henrique

Connor picks Jose Henrique Sousa because he is bigger than Ding, likes the clinch just as much, and is the more violent athlete. Ding is slow and will put himself in Henrique's comfort range. Connor acknowledges the fight could be awful if both square off, but Henrique is the pick.

"Jose Henrique Sousa is the pick."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked May 27, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jose Henrique

Jacob picks Jose Henrique as a slight dog because he likes his length, jab, and knees in the clinch. He notes that Jose doesn't have typical tall guy defense and can sit in the pocket. He thinks the odds are close for a reason and that Jose can keep Ding at bay.

"I'm taking a little bit of a a dog here. I think that these odds are close for a reason. And I think there's some people with some money on Jose that know that this guy's kind of …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked May 23, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Ding Meng

Lucrative James picks Ding Meng on experience, noting his 44 pro fights and ability to weather storms. He thinks Jose Henrique is young and gets hit too much, and despite his power, he can be dragged into wars and has poor defense. He predicts a decision win for Meng, but calls the fight volatile and says he may not bet it unless the under 2.5 rounds line is good.

Under 2.5 rounds (if good price)
"I'm going to say Mending wings the fight. I'm going to say Mending has too much experience."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Ding Meng

The host picks Ding Meng over Jose Henrique, expecting Meng to put together an aggressive striking game and land big shots, ultimately winning by knockout.

by knockout
"I think it's going to be Mang who's going to put together a better aggressive striking game moving forward, landing big shots. And I think he finds that big shot to tumble the towering Brazilian here as Mangding …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 25, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Ding Meng

The host picks Ding Meng, believing his durability and aggressive striking will overwhelm Henrique. He notes Henrique is too hittable and lacks the speed to avoid Ding's power. He expects Ding to crash the pocket and land big shots, leading to a knockout win. He considers minus 125 a steal.

I personally think minus 125 is a bit of a steal of a line on Mang, so I don't mind, you know, taking a decent bit of him here.
"I'm going to go Mang. I think he repeatedly uh drops hurts on Hiki and I think he eventually gets himself a knockout win here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 27, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Jose Henrique

Paul picks Henrique but admits he hates both fighters. He notes Ding's chin issues and Henrique's training with Andre Pederneiras. However, he is not confident and calls it a leap of faith. He thinks both are terrible but sides with Henrique based on potential growth.

"I'm going to pick the kid um Jose Souza. And that's just kind of like an assessment based off potential growth."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked May 26, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Ding Meng

The Guru sides with Ming's experience and power, expecting a finish from either side. He notes Henrique has a good jab and knees but weaker open-mat takedown defense. Ming has a good kick arsenal and dirty boxing. He admits low confidence and expects someone gets knocked out or submitted.

finish likely
"I'm gonna side with the experience of Ming. But golly, this is not a very confident read."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 20, 2026 (9 days before fight)
Ding Meng

The Guru picks Meng Ding over Jose Sousa, favoring Ding's experience and power. He believes Ding's aggressive pocket boxing and knockout power will overwhelm the younger, lanky Sousa, who lacks notable wins. He expects Ding to close the distance and land a knockout shot.

"I'm picking Meng Ding to win this fight."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 20, 2026 (9 days before fight)
Ding Meng

The MMA Guru picks Ding Meng to win by knockout. He is very excited about Ding Meng's signing and believes his aggressive pressure and dirty boxing will overwhelm Jose Henrique, who has poor tall man's defense. He notes Ding Meng's 44 professional fights and his ability to throw down in the pocket.

"Ding's finding that chin, man. He's finding a knockout."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 28, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Jose Henrique

Zane picks Jose Henrique Sousa because he is taller, more dynamic, faster, and has a powerful clinch game. Ding Meng is a slow wall-and-stall artist who will put himself in the range where Henrique is comfortable. Zane notes both fighters are not ready for this level, but Henrique is the more plausible fighter.

Odds mentioned: Ding Meng -120, Henrique +100
"Jose Henrique Sousa is the pick. Neither man should be near this level, but Henrique is the more plausible fighter."
Fight Notes
BR
brian 4 days, 14 hours ago

Bit lazy, Jose, low cardio,maybe someone leg kicks him out of the ufc.. he kept suggesting to bang and then ran away. Taunted a bit near the end

Fight 9 VS Bantamweight Scheduled

Aoriqileng

Moneyline
FanDuel +360
KO/TKO
Cloudbet 8.54
Submission
Cloudbet 30.18
Decision
Cloudbet 9.58

Cody Haddon

Moneyline
Pinnacle +833
KO/TKO
BetRivers +215
Submission
Cloudbet 7.55
Decision
BetRivers +188
Fighter Stats

Aoriqileng

Age32
Height5' 7"
Reach69"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Cody Haddon

Age27
Height5' 7"
Reach69.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Aoriqileng

4.69SLpM
49.0%Str. Acc.
5.47SApM
48.0%Str. Def.
1.2TD Avg
46.0%TD Acc.
58.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Cody Haddon

9.2SLpM
51.0%Str. Acc.
3.47SApM
64.0%Str. Def.
2.48TD Avg
37.0%TD Acc.
83.0%TD Def.
0.8Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (17)
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked May 26, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Cody Haddon

AJ is a fan of Cody Haddon as a prospect, praising his hands, boxing pressure, high output, and slickness. He thinks Haddon's volume and speed will overwhelm Aoriqileng, who has dangerous offense but is hittable. AJ believes Haddon will outwork him, possibly with a finish, and that Haddon's talent is superior. He notes Haddon is coming off a layoff but expects the best version.

Haddon KO at +210; Haddon at -350
"I'm a Cody Hadden fan for sure as a prospect. I think he's nice with it, man. Good hands on him, good boxing pressure, high output, slickness in his shots. ... Hadden for the dub is my call."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked May 18, 2026 (12 days before fight)
Cody Haddon

AJ confidently picks Haddon, praising his clean boxing, combinations, and forward pressure. He thinks Haddon's striking is faster and more powerful than Aoriqileng's, and expects a finish, possibly by KO. AJ notes Haddon is a blue-chip prospect and Aoriqileng is a tough but less technical veteran.

Cody Haddon wins by KO/TKO
"I'm picking Cody Hadden, but like Aricie Long is not an easy UFC challenge for Cody Hadden, dude. Aricie Long's gangster with the striking. He's a vet, too. ... I think Cody Hadden could end up rocking Aricie …"
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 29, 2026 (fight day)
Cody Haddon

Angelo picks Cody Haddon, praising his pressure, pace, and well-rounded skills. He is concerned about Haddon's long layoff due to injury but still believes he is the better overall fighter. However, he plans to fade Haddon in DraftKings due to high price and potential scoring issues.

fade in DraftKings lineup due to price and layoff
"I still think Cody Haden gets the win. I think he's the better overall fighter. I love the pressure. I love everything about Cody Haden in this matchup."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked May 27, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Cody Haddon

Angelo picks Cody Haddon but is hesitant due to the two-year layoff and major surgery. He acknowledges Cody is the better fighter and if he is even 80% of what he was, he should win. However, he cannot touch the odds due to the uncertainty.

"I'm still going to pick Cody win because Cody is the better fighter. He's just the better fighter. But I just can't I can't touch these odds. Not in this situation."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked May 24, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Cody Haddon

Angelo picks Cody Haddon based on his skills and performance against Dan Argueta, but he is hesitant due to Haddon's two-year layoff from a torn ligament. He questions what version of Haddon will show up and notes the risk of fighting in enemy territory. He cannot bet on Haddon at -350 given the uncertainty, but he is rooting for him.

"I have to pick Cody here. I cannot bet on him at minus 350. Not after a long two-year injury layoff in quote unquote enemy territory."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 26, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Cody Haddon

Big Brady picks Cody Haddon by decision, praising his clean boxing, fast hands, volume, and wrestling. He notes Haddon is good everywhere and has been out with injuries but is only 27. He acknowledges Aoriqileng is tough and durable but believes Haddon will outland him and mix in takedowns if needed.

"Give me Cody Haden to win this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Cody Haddon

Cody is high on Haddon, calling him a legitimate prospect with crisp boxing, good volume, durability, and improving wrestling. He notes Haddon's takedown defense and scrambling looked good against Dan Argueta. Richie Lang is an older, slower fighter who struggles with volume and has been knocked out by lesser punchers. Cody expects Haddon to outwork and potentially finish Lang.

Haddon by decision or late finish; Haddon to land 150+ significant strikes
"I don't see him losing. So, he is a guy that I may be overvaluing, sure, but you see money's coming in. People are seeing probably the exact same thing."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 28, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Cody Haddon

Connor picks Cody Haddon, praising his lazy but effective style: a calm, flat-footed fighter with a long jab, good head movement, and combinations to the body. He notes Haddon's poise is a strength, though it could later lead to a fight being ripped away.

"Cody Haddon looks lazy in a James Toney kind of way... that poise is a strength."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Cody Haddon

Jacob picks Cody Haddon and is confident despite the layoff. He notes that Cody has a boxing background and wrestling as a backup plan. He thinks Cody should use wrestling early to take the pop out of Aoriqileng's shots. He acknowledges the risk but believes Cody is the better fighter.

"I'm touching them, man. I'm touching them. I'm feeling them. I'm squeezing them. I'm going to enjoy them. Because this is where the line should be priced."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked May 23, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Cody Haddon

Lucrative James is high on Cody Haddon, calling him 'championship material' with superior boxing, volume, and body work. He notes Aoriqileng's only path is power punches, but Haddon's chin and defensive skills should prevail. He expects Haddon to win a beatdown decision, possibly with late finish attempts, but Aori is tough. He mentions Haddon's injury history but believes in his skill level.

Cody Haddon via decision
"I got Cody Haden to win this fight. I'll say that he wins it via decision, but like a beatdown decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Cody Haddon

The host is a big Cody Haddon fan and believes this is a perfect matchup for him. He expects Haddon to showcase sharper striking and good grappling, eventually finding a big shot to finish Aoriqileng inside the distance.

inside the distance
"Give me Cody Haden inside the distance."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 25, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Cody Haddon

The host picks Haddon to win inside the distance, citing his technical superiority in all aspects and speed advantage. He believes Haddon's slick striking and grappling will cause Aoriqileng problems, and that Aoriqileng's overaggression will open up finishing opportunities. He cannot decide between knockout or submission but is confident in a finish.

"I'm going to go Haden here. I'm going to go Haden inside the distance. I don't I can't pick between knockout or submission."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Cody Haddon

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Haddon's well-rounded skills and volume. He mentions that Lang's wins are over low-level opponents and that Haddon's pace will be too much. Paul sees Haddon as a strong play.

"Volume is going to be tough. I think even wrestling, Cody Haden can can put it on him there."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 26, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Cody Haddon

The Guru picks Haddon due to superior well-roundedness. He notes Haddon has good striking with body work, combinations, and leg kicks, plus solid grappling and scrambling. Aoriqileng has forward pressure and power but poor defense and takedown defense. Experience favors Aoriqileng but skill favors Haddon.

"I think that the skill is on the side of Haden and I got to side with the skill."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 20, 2026 (9 days before fight)
Cody Haddon

The Guru picks Cody Hadden over Iori (Aoriqileng), citing Hadden's well-rounded skills, high volume, and durability. He believes Hadden's technical striking and cardio will outwork Iori, who is an explosive pocket brawler. He notes Iori's limited ceiling and Hadden's potential.

"I'm going to pick Cody Hadden."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 20, 2026 (9 days before fight)
Cody Haddon

The MMA Guru picks Cody Haddon to win by finish. He notes that Haddon is younger, faster, and has good hand speed, while Aoriqileng is slower and can be pressured. He believes Haddon can keep the fight on the feet or take it down if he wants, and that Haddon's speed and pressure will lead to a finish.

"I think he's actually going to find a finish in this matchup."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 28, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Cody Haddon

Zane picks Cody Haddon as a young prospect coming off a strong debut against a seasoned veteran. Aoriqileng is a midcard action fighter who can be outwrestled and outgrappled. Zane calls it a squash match but a useful one against a tough veteran.

Odds mentioned: Haddon -365, Aoriqileng +290
"Haddon is the pick, and the fight should be fun."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Fight 10 VS Bantamweight Scheduled

Rei Tsuruya

Moneyline
Bovada -250
KO/TKO
BetWay +800
Submission
BetWay +300
Decision
Unibet +135

Luis Gurule

Moneyline
Unibet Eu +310
KO/TKO
BetRivers +1000
Submission
Cloudbet 40.17
Decision
BetRivers +575
Fighter Stats

Rei Tsuruya

Age23
Height5' 6"
Reach68.0"
Weight125 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Luis Gurule

Age32
Height5' 5"
Reach64.0"
Weight125 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Rei Tsuruya

2.24SLpM
52.0%Str. Acc.
2.01SApM
42.0%Str. Def.
5.06TD Avg
37.0%TD Acc.
50.0%TD Def.
1.9Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Luis Gurule

4.47SLpM
40.0%Str. Acc.
4.74SApM
59.0%Str. Def.
0.58TD Avg
14.0%TD Acc.
58.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (4)
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Rei Tsuruya

AJ is confident in Rei Tsuruya, citing a clear grappling edge over Luis Gurule, who is a short-notice replacement. He notes that Gurule was dropped multiple times by Jesus Aguilar, whom Tsuruya was originally scheduled to fight. AJ expects Tsuruya to take Gurule's back and secure a rear-naked choke submission, as Tsuruya is a hyper-elite grappler with only one pro loss to Joshua Van.

Rei Tsuruya by submission +300 mentioned as a favorite prop; moneyline at -240
"I think Ray Seruya has a hyper elite ground game that's going to be on display here and odds are he's going to get Garle's back and he's probably going to end up sinking in that rear naked …"
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked May 26, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Rei Tsuruya

AJ is confident Tsuruya will out-grapple Gurule, citing his high-level grappling, takedowns, and jiu-jitsu. He notes Tsuruya's only loss is to Joshua Van and compares him to a 'great value Tatsuro Taira'. He predicts Tsuruya will hit takedowns, control position, and win by decision or submission, specifically a rear naked choke in the first or second round.

Tsuruya submission at +275; Tsuruya decision at +160; Tsuruya as parlay piece
"I think this is a Ray Borg fight where he really can shine. I think that he's going to be able to out-grapple Luis Gurule. ... I think Ray is going to be able to get a submission …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 28, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Rei Tsuruya

Connor picks Rei Tsuruya, noting Gurule is not fast, dynamic, or powerful for flyweight, and cannot create separation. Tsuruya is faster and can impose his wrestling game. Gurule is also on short notice.

"Tsuruya is faster, knows exactly what he needs to do, and gets to impose his wrestling game."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 28, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Rei Tsuruya

Zane picks Rei Tsuruya because he is a strong, determined wrestler who gave Joshua Van a hard fight. Luis Gurule is a meat-and-potatoes flyweight who struggles against athletic opponents willing to push pace. Tsuruya is faster and knows exactly what he needs to do.

Odds mentioned: Tsuruya -240, Gurule +205
"Tsuruya is the pick. It is a bad style matchup, plus Gurule is flying across the world on short notice without a camp."
Fight Notes

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Fight 11 VS Women's Strawweight Scheduled

Angela Hill

Moneyline
FanDuel +176
KO/TKO
Unibet +1800
Submission
FanDuel +1300
Decision
FanDuel +250

Xiong Jingnan

Moneyline
BetUS -164
KO/TKO
Cloudbet 6.78
Submission
Cloudbet 24.21
Decision
Cloudbet 2.04
Fighter Stats

Angela Hill

Age41
Height5' 3"
Reach64.0"
Weight115 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Xiong Jingnan

Age38
HeightN/A
ReachN/A
Weight115 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Career Averages - Angela Hill

5.37SLpM
50.0%Str. Acc.
5.02SApM
60.0%Str. Def.
0.75TD Avg
30.0%TD Acc.
72.0%TD Def.
0.1Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Xiong Jingnan

0.0SLpM
0.0%Str. Acc.
0.0SApM
0.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
0.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (17)
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Lean picked May 26, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Xiong Jingnan

AJ picks Xiong Jingnan because she has good boxing, national team level, and is accurate with forward pressure. He thinks Xiong will win the battle of real estate and land more impactful shots, while Angela Hill relies on volume and movement. He notes Hill is 41 and coming off two straight losses, though he wants to see weigh-ins to confirm size. He calls it a tricky fight and a coin flip.

Hill at +150; Xiong at -175; over 2.5 rounds at -415; Hill on cards +225; Xiong on cards -125
"I feel like Jing Nan Xiong is going to end up beating a 41-year-old Angela Hill. ... I'm picking Jing Non because I just think she's a little more effective with clean striking and precision boxing."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked May 18, 2026 (12 days before fight)
Xiong Jingnan

AJ confidently picks Xiong Jingnan, citing her high-level boxing, power, and precision compared to Hill's volume without power. He notes Hill is 41 and slowing, while Xiong is younger (38) and has been inactive but dominant. AJ expects Xiong to land big shots and win a decision, though Hill has never been KO'd. He also mentions Xiong's wrestling defense and ground-and-pound as additional tools.

"I think Jing Nan Xiong is about to beat Angela Hill, which feels crazy to say because we're talking about an Angela Hill who's been on the UFC roster forever. Kind of the queen gatekeeper, but I think …"
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 29, 2026 (fight day)
Xiong Jingnan

Angelo picks Xiong Jingnan, citing her pressure and aggression, and the likelihood of Chinese judges favoring the Chinese fighter. He notes Angela Hill is durable and a live underdog, but expects a decision win for Xiong. He sees more upside in Hill for DraftKings due to potential volume.

decision win expected; Angela Hill may be better DraftKings play
"I'm going to pick Jeang to win because I love the pressure. I love the aggression. She will be in China. It will go to a decision."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Xiong Jingnan

Angelo picks Xiong because she is a powerful striker who moves forward with wild looping punches. He thinks Angela Hill doesn't have the one-punch power to stop that forward pressure, and the judges in China will favor the aggressor. He is not betting on the fight due to the odds.

"I'm picking forward pressure here. Jing Nang is the pick. I'm not touching these odds."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 24, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Xiong Jingnan

Angelo picks Xiong Jingnan despite her age and level of competition concerns, because her aggressive forward pressure and power will not give Angela Hill the space she needs to work. He notes that Angela Hill is a crafty veteran who could implement a grappling game plan, but he favors the home fighter who moves forward and bombs away. He acknowledges the competition gap but believes the style matchup favors Jingnan.

"I'm going to pick Jing Naan here. I'm going to pick her only because of the fight style."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 26, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Angela Hill

Big Brady picks Angela Hill but is hesitant, calling it a 'trap' fight. He notes Hill is older (41) but more active, while Jingnan is 38 and has fought only twice in four years. He believes Hill has a grappling advantage and has never been knocked out, but worries the UFC wants Jingnan to win in China. He says it's a 'dog or pass' fight and he'll probably stay away.

"Give me Angela Hill to win this fight by a very close decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked May 27, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Xiong Jingnan

Cody picks Xiong Jingnan despite not loving it. He notes that Angela Hill is 41 and often loses close decisions, and that the fight is in China, which may favor the local fighter. He believes Xiong hits harder and is faster, and that Hill's volume may not be enough to sway judges. Cody expects a close fight but thinks Xiong will get the nod.

Fight goes to decision; over rounds
"I think Jingyang Jeang's n she's not young, but she hits a little harder. She's a little faster. She should be I don't I just I I think she does enough to get this thing done."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked May 28, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Xiong Jingnan

Connor picks Xiong Jingnan, noting Hill can make Xiong tired and could win with takedowns, but Hill's offense is ineffectual and she is not physically imposing. Xiong may hit harder in exchanges, similar to how strong punchers have punished Hill recently.

"Xiong may be able to ignore Hill's offense and hit harder in the exchanges, the way strong punchers have punished Hill recently."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Hesitant picked May 27, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Xiong Jingnan

Jacob picks Xiong but is hesitant because of her age (38) and the trap fight potential. He notes that Angela Hill is durable and has never been knocked out, so if Xiong slows down, Hill could take over. He acknowledges that many people like Hill as a dog.

"I'm picking Jeong. She should have the speed advantage, win a round, win the second round, third round. But if Angela Hill pulls us off, I'm not going to be surprised."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked May 23, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Angela Hill

Lucrative James picks Angela Hill as a plus money underdog, questioning why Xiong Jingnan is such a big favorite. He notes Hill's durability (not finished since 2019), volume, and experience against top competition, while Xiong has fought lower-level opponents and may have lost her last fight under 1FC rules. He believes Hill can win a decision by outworking Xiong with volume and clinch work.

Angela Hill via decision
"I'm picking Angela Hill to win this fight. I'm picking Angela Hill to win this fight via decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Xiong Jingnan

The host picks Xiong Jingnan over Angela Hill, noting both have Muay Thai bases but Jingnan lands with more emphasis, which will leave a lasting impression on judges. He expects Jingnan to win on the scorecards.

decision victory
"I believe it's going to be Jing Nan who's able to land with a little bit more emphasis and I think that will leave more of an lasting impression to the judges and I think that would lead …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 25, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Xiong Jingnan

The host leans with Jingnan, believing she throws with more power than Hill and that her Muay Thai approach will edge her ahead. He notes both fighters are similar stylistically but expects Jingnan's power to be the difference, similar to how Lucindo beat Hill. He still expects a competitive fight and doesn't mind an underdog shot on Hill.

At minus 200, I just don't feel too hot about it.
"I'm going to have to lean with Jing Nan just ever so slightly. I think she throws with a little bit more power than Hill."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 27, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Angela Hill

Paul picks Hill as a value play, noting that she has been fighting higher-level competition and that this is a step down. He acknowledges Hill's age and tendency to lose close decisions but thinks +165 is too high for a 50/50 fight. He is concerned about the China factor but believes Hill's experience gives her an edge.

Fight goes to decision; over rounds
"I just think this is like any other Angela Hill fight where she's plus 165 and you go, it's probably a 50/50 fight. Give me Angela Hill at plus 165."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 26, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Xiong Jingnan

The Guru picks Jingnan by TKO, likely via body shot to head shot combo. He notes Hill is durable but thinks body shots can put anyone away. He highlights Jingnan's power, body work, and combinations, while Hill lacks power but has volume and toughness. He expects a knockout rather than a decision.

TKO by body shot to head shot combo
"I think Hill's getting knocked out actually. I'm taking Jang by probably body shot to head shot combo."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 20, 2026 (9 days before fight)
Xiong Jingnan

The Guru picks Jingnan Xiong despite her age and debut, citing her elite boxing fundamentals, brutal body hooks, and takedown defense. He believes her power will be too much for Angela Hill, who is a volume point-fighter without real power. He expects Jingnan to time right-hand shots and land heavier punches.

"My pick is going to be Jing Nang Xiong to win this fight."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 20, 2026 (9 days before fight)
Xiong Jingnan

The MMA Guru picks Xiong Jingnan to win by decision. He thinks the odds are too wide but still believes Xiong will win. He notes that Xiong is a boxer with offensive skills but poor defense, but Angela Hill is 41 and a striker who won't wrestle. He expects Xiong to pressure and land consistently, winning a decision.

disagrees with odds being this wide
"I do think Jong Jing wins this fight, but I just disagree with the odds being this wide."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked May 28, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Xiong Jingnan

Zane picks Xiong Jingnan as a gamble on Hill no longer being able to enforce enough offense. Hill is 41 and her close fights are turning into losses. Xiong is a slugger with limited wrestling, but Hill's offense is increasingly ineffectual.

Odds mentioned: Xiong -190, Hill +165
"I will take Xiong Jingnan as a gamble on Hill no longer being able to enforce enough offense."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Fight 12 VS Featherweight Scheduled

Zhu Kangjie

Moneyline
Unibet Eu +118
KO/TKO
Unibet +650
Submission
FanDuel +2200
Decision
Cloudbet 2.72

Rodrigo Vera

Moneyline
Caesars +105
KO/TKO
Cloudbet 7.55
Submission
FanDuel +1100
Decision
Cloudbet 3.10
Fighter Stats

Zhu Kangjie

Age30
Height5' 8"
Reach70"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Rodrigo Vera

AgeN/A
HeightN/A
ReachN/A
WeightN/A
StanceN/A

Career Averages - Zhu Kangjie

2.89SLpM
48.0%Str. Acc.
1.33SApM
70.0%Str. Def.
0.33TD Avg
100.0%TD Acc.
51.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Rodrigo Vera

No career stats available.

Expert Picks (4)
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Lean picked May 26, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Zhu Kangjie

AJ likes Zhu Kangjie's striking arsenal, noting he is snappier with shots and nastier with overhands, with a head kick threat. He feels torn because Vera is coming off The Ultimate Fighter situation but gives Zhu the upside due to his craziness. However, he doesn't love that Zhu's past two wins are split decisions, calling it a coin flip fight. He predicts a close decision win for Zhu.

"I'm leaning Kan Ji Zoo to get it done in a close fight. Feels like a coin flip type of fight. I'm going to say maybe Zoo decision win."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Lean picked May 18, 2026 (12 days before fight)
Zhu Kangjie

AJ leans Zhu because Vera is a short-notice replacement with unknown status from TUF, and Zhu has a full camp. Zhu is the more dangerous striker with better hands and get-up game, though he gets taken down frequently. AJ thinks Zhu's damaging striking will outweigh Vera's wrestling control, especially with potential hometown judging bias.

"I got to lean towards Kanji Zoo. Especially with the what ifs around Rodrigo Vera because not a guy you'd expect to take a short notice fight when he was supposed to be fighting on tough."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked May 28, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Zhu Kangjie

Connor picks Zhu Kangjie, referencing a coin flip that came up tails for Zhu. He notes Vera is a bad takedown artist with slow mechanics, while Zhu is the athlete. Connor is not confident.

"We joked about a coin flip for this fight: heads Vera, tails Zhu, and it came up tails."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked May 28, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Zhu Kangjie

Zane picks Zhu Kangjie mostly because he is the athlete, though he does not know how to fight. Rodrigo Vera is incredibly slow with poor wrestling mechanics. Zane calls it a coin flip and notes the odds are even.

Odds mentioned: both -110
"We are picking Zhu Kangjie, mostly because he is the athlete."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Fight 13 VS Women's Strawweight Scheduled

Loma Lookboonmee

Moneyline
Pinnacle +123
KO/TKO
BetWay +1200
Submission
FanDuel +2000
Decision
Unibet +190

Jaqueline Amorim

Moneyline
BetRivers -109
KO/TKO
BetRivers +1300
Submission
Cloudbet 4.22
Decision
FanDuel +280
Fighter Stats

Loma Lookboonmee

Age30
Height5' 1"
Reach61.0"
Weight115 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Jaqueline Amorim

Age30
Height5' 3"
Reach68.0"
Weight115 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Loma Lookboonmee

3.67SLpM
55.0%Str. Acc.
2.52SApM
53.0%Str. Def.
1.81TD Avg
50.0%TD Acc.
68.0%TD Def.
0.1Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Jaqueline Amorim

2.43SLpM
50.0%Str. Acc.
2.16SApM
54.0%Str. Def.
2.16TD Avg
36.0%TD Acc.
0.0%TD Def.
3.8Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (18)
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Loma Lookboonmee

AJ picks Loma Lookboonmee as an underdog, citing her defensive grappling and proven cardio. He notes that Amorim gasses after round one and has poor striking, while Lookboonmee is a decision merchant with eight decision wins. AJ expects Lookboonmee to survive early grappling threats and take over in rounds two and three, winning a decision.

Loma Lookboonmee by decision +175 mentioned as a prop; moneyline at +105
"Luke Bume is going to be kind of like a Sam Hughes or a Mizuki Inua style of matchup. I really think that we're going to see round one some grappling threats from MRM, but two and three, …"
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Lean picked May 26, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Loma Lookboonmee

AJ favors Lookboonmee because she is more proven to come back from adversity and push a pace. He notes Amorim's jiu-jitsu is very good but she tends to fall apart as fights go on, with sloppy wrestling and nonexistent striking when fatigued. Lookboonmee has a legitimate Muay Thai skillset and is defensively sound against grappling, though AJ acknowledges she could end up in bad spots. He ultimately leans Lookboonmee to win two out of three rounds via striking and defensive wrestling.

Decision for Lookboonmee at +125; fight goes over 2.5 rounds at -185; Amorim submission at +275
"I'm going to go towards Lookboome cuz she's more proven to be able to come back from some adversity, dig deep, and push a pace, but I'm not overly confident in it."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked May 18, 2026 (12 days before fight)
Loma Lookboonmee

AJ picks Lookboonmee because Amorim has elite grappling but poor cardio and loses decisions when she can't submit. Lookboonmee has good takedown defense (68%), superior striking, and cardio to outwork Amorim in rounds 2 and 3. He expects a decision win for Lookboonmee, noting she is a decision merchant and Amorim fades late.

over 2.5 rounds (if available), Loma Lookboonmee wins by decision
"I'm going to go with Lookboonmee. But, it's kind of a tricky prediction because Jacquelyn Amorim has like hyper elite grappling. The problem is she can't win decisions to save her life cuz she has like a round …"
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 29, 2026 (fight day)
Loma Lookboonmee

Angelo leans toward Loma Lookboonmee, noting that Jaqueline Amorim is 'sub or bust' and has poor takedowns. He believes Loma can avoid the ground and use her Muay Thai to win a decision, but he is not confident in either fighter scoring well for DraftKings.

neither in lineup; decision likely
"I actually think LMA can win this fight. The problem is I don't think she'll score well."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Loma Lookboonmee

Angelo picks Loma because she is busy, has good footwork, and is the much better striker. He notes that Jaqueline is submission or bust and if she doesn't find a finish early, she has nothing else to offer. He also mentions that over 2.5 rounds is the safest bet.

over 2.5 rounds
"I do think LMA wins this fight. But if Jacqueline gets the takedowns, it's going to be kind of a mess of a situation. I don't think I'm going to bet money line here. I think over two …"
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked May 24, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Loma Lookboonmee

Angelo picks Loma Lookboonmee despite her size disadvantage, trusting her submission defense and overall skill. He notes that Loma is tiny but tough and well-rounded, and if she can defend the first few takedowns, she can frustrate Amorim and win a decision. He acknowledges the risk of being taken down and submitted, but believes Loma is the better fighter skill-for-skill.

over 2.5 rounds
"I'm going to pick Loma here. I trust the submission defense. Maybe that's a huge mistake, but I trust the submission defense."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 26, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jaqueline Amorim

Big Brady picks Jaqueline Amorim by first-round submission, citing her world-class jiu-jitsu and ability to submit black belts. He notes her cardio and striking are poor, but believes she has 5-7 minutes to find a submission before gassing. He thinks Lookboonmee is too small and will be taken down and put in bad spots early.

first round submission
"I'm going to take Amarine to win this fight by first round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked May 27, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Jaqueline Amorim

Cody picks Amorim, citing her wrestling and BJJ advantage. He notes that Lookboonmee is a Thai fighter who may be past her prime and has been taken down frequently. Amorim's path is to get takedowns and control position. Cody admits this is his least confident play on the card, as Lookboonmee could keep it standing and out-strike her.

Amorim by decision or submission; fight goes to decision
"I feel like Amarine probably does complete a few takedowns, rack up some control time, and potentially win a few rounds. So, as of right now, I do have Amarim, but I'll admit probably my least confident play …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 28, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Jaqueline Amorim

Connor picks Jaqueline Amorim because Loma's style exposes her to takedowns, and she knows enough grappling to get in trouble but not enough to beat a grappler like Amorim. Amorim got tired against Inoue, but Loma lacks the size and scrambling threat to steal the fight late.

"Amorim is the pick."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Loma Lookboonmee

Jacob picks Loma because Jaqueline has shown she cannot maintain her pace beyond the first round against competent fighters. He notes that Loma trains at Bangta with the Hickman brothers and knows jiu-jitsu, so even if taken down, she can stay safe. He also mentions that Loma has offensive wrestling and nasty Muay Thai.

"I'm a fan of Loma Luke Boommy, but Jacquelini every time she's fought an actual like competent fighter. She's looked horrible."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked May 23, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Jaqueline Amorim

Lucrative James picks Jaqueline Amorim, citing her superior BJJ and grappling, which should exploit Loma Lookboonmee's mistakes on the ground. He notes Loma is a Muay Thai striker but makes too many grappling errors, and Amorim's black belt level should lead to a submission. He acknowledges Amorim's poor last performance but believes she has the style to win.

Jaqueline Amorim via submission
"I have Jacqueline Amarim to win this fight via submission."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 27, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Loma Lookboonmee

The host believes in the striker Loma Lookboonmee, expecting her to stop most takedowns and avoid finishing positions from Amorim, then dominate on the feet to win a decision. He notes the fight is near pick'em odds due to the striker vs grappler dynamic.

decision victory
"I believe in the striker here and Luke Boni who I think will be able to stop most of the takedowns or at least stop Amarim from getting to a finishing position and then batter on the feet …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 25, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Loma Lookboonmee

The host leans with Lookboonmee, believing she can stop Amorim's takedowns and keep the fight in the striking realm. He notes Lookboonmee's improved grappling defense and Muay Thai clinch work, while Amorim's wrestling is still developing. He expects Lookboonmee to land more damage en route to a decision victory.

"I find myself leaning with the Luke Buni side here as I believe that she'll be able to stop the takedowns of Amarim."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 27, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Loma Lookboonmee

Paul picks Lookboonmee, noting her speed and striking advantage. He believes she can stay on the back foot and out-land Amorim in a greasy decision. However, he acknowledges that if Amorim gets takedowns, she could win. Paul is not confident and does not plan to bet this fight.

Fight goes to decision
"I would side with Luke Boommy to stay on her back foot out land in a greasy chick fight that goes to decision."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked May 26, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Jaqueline Amorim

The Guru sees this as a striker vs grappler matchup. He believes Amorim's path is to close distance with wild power shots and get takedowns, where she has solid grappling and submission threats. He notes Loma's striking and clinch are good but she may struggle to keep range, and Amorim's takedowns could be enough. However, he admits this was the hardest fight to pick and it could go either way.

"I'm going to take Amarine, but this is the fight that took me the longest to make a prediction."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 20, 2026 (9 days before fight)
Loma Lookboonmee

The Guru favors Loma Lookboonmee due to her elite Muay Thai striking and ability to manage distance. He believes Loma's takedown defense will neutralize Jaqueline's grappling, and that Loma's volume and sharp striking will win her a decision. He notes Jaqueline's struggles when she can't get takedowns, as seen in her loss to Sam Hughes.

"I'm going to side with Loma Lookboonmee in this matchup."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked May 20, 2026 (9 days before fight)
Loma Lookboonmee

The MMA Guru is leaning towards Loma Lookboonmee but is not confident. He notes that Lookboonmee hasn't faced many grapplers in the UFC, while Amorim is an elite BJJ world champion. However, he believes Lookboonmee's takedown defense is decent and she can keep the fight standing, where she is the much better technical striker with high volume Muay Thai. He acknowledges Amorim could submit her if she gets the fight to the ground, but he's not sure Amorim can do that.

"I am actually leaning towards Lomalook Boommy in this matchup. But I am so not confident in this fight."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 28, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Jaqueline Amorim

Zane picks Jaqueline Amorim because she is a serious jiu-jitsu player who can dominate on the mat. Loma's wrestling improvements may put her in worse positions, and she lacks power to keep Amorim scared. Zane notes the odds have moved closer but feels the opener was more accurate.

Odds mentioned: Amorim -130, Loma +110; Zane thinks opener (-250) was more accurate
"Jaqueline Amorim opened around -250 and is currently around -130. I am not sure why those odds got so much closer; the opener felt more accurate."
Fight Notes

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