Alexandre Pantoja

Angelo picks Alexandre Pantoja, calling him one of the best flyweights ever. He praises Pantoja's pressure, takedowns, and jiu-jitsu. While he acknowledges Joshua Van's impressive pocket striking and takedown defense, he believes Pantoja's experience and wrestling will be too much for Van at this stage. He thinks the odds are a discount on Pantoja.

Big Brady picks Alexandre Pantoja, citing his elite ground game and ability to take Van's back. He notes Van's grappling inexperience and mistakes, and expects Pantoja to submit Van with a rear-naked choke in the second round.

Cody picks Pantoja, noting his submission threat and takedown ability. He acknowledges Van's striking and pace but questions his takedown defense, as he has been taken down by lesser grapplers. He mentions that Pantoja took Van's back and submitted him, and he has a bet on Pantoja by submission at plus 200. He believes Pantoja's path to victory is via submission.

Connor picks Van, believing that Pantoja must get a finish or will be outworked. He notes that Van is a rare pocket fighter who stays dialed in and adjusts well late in fights. Connor points out that Pantoja tends to gas and, while he fights brilliantly tired, Van's defensive wrestling and striking are superior to other dangerous punchers Pantoja has faced. He thinks Van can replicate Steve Erceg's success but with better defense and aggression.

Daniel is torn on this fight, calling it a 'dog or pass' situation. He respects Pantoja's elite back-taking and championship pedigree but also acknowledges Van's volume, takedown defense, and youth. He sees paths to victory for both and plans to finalize his pick on fight week.

Lucrative James sees this as a striker vs grappler matchup. He believes Pantoja's relentless wrestling and superior jiu-jitsu will be the difference, especially given Joshua Van's relative inexperience in grappling (only 3 years of wrestling training). He worries about Van's overconfidence in his jiu-jitsu and thinks Pantoja can submit him or control him on the ground. He notes the line should be closer to -150 and mentions the under 4.5 rounds as a potential play.

The host acknowledges that many think it's too soon for Van, but believes Van will be prepared to defend submissions early and then put it on Pantoja in the championship rounds. He even suggests a TKO finish for Van to become the new champion.

Paul leans toward Van as a live underdog, citing his youth, striking volume, and cardio. He notes that Van outpaced Brandon Royval and has a path to victory if he keeps the fight standing. However, he is concerned about Van's takedown defense and Pantoja's back-taking ability. He admits he is flip-flopping but ultimately picks Van for the plus money.

The Guru picks Alexandre Pantoja to submit Joshua Van, despite Van's striking talent. He believes Pantoja's relentless grappling and takedowns will overwhelm Van, who is inexperienced in championship fights. The Guru predicts a first or second round rear-naked choke.

Angelo picks Alexandre Pantoja because he believes Pantoja's grappling and bullying style will be too much for Kai Kara-France, who is smaller and primarily a boxer. He notes that Pantoja is durable, gritty, and will drag Kara-France to the ground, and that the -260 odds are a gift. He dismisses their first fight on TUF as irrelevant and thinks Pantoja's path to victory is clear.

Big Brady is very confident in Pantoja, noting that Kara-France has a tendency to give up his back, as seen in fights against Albazi, Askarov, and Royval. He believes Pantoja's relentless takedown pressure and elite grappling will lead to a submission once he takes Kara-France's back. Brady also notes Kara-France's power but doubts he can knock out Pantoja, who has never been knocked out. He picks Pantoja by third-round submission.

Connor believes Pantoja is the clear champion in the division and that Kara-France lacks the structure to win rounds at an elite level. He notes that Kara-France struggles when he can't get a knockout, and Pantoja is extremely durable and determined. He also highlights Pantoja's wrestling and grappling as key advantages, especially given Kara-France's tendency to give up his back in scrambles. Connor expects Pantoja to win, possibly by finish.

The host sees this as a great matchup for Pantoja to showcase his grappling dominance, predicting he will find a dominant position and submission within two and a half rounds, forcing the tap from Kara-France.

The host picks Alexandre Pantoja, arguing that Kara-France's finishing potential is reduced when he has to defend takedowns. He notes that Pantoja's stand-up has improved and that his pressure and kicks will be key. He expects a close competitive decision, 48-47 or 49-46 for Pantoja.

Angelo picks Alexandre Pantoja, citing his wrestling and pressure as the difference. He believes Kai Asakura's takedown defense is untested against a grappler of Pantoja's level, and the weight cut to 125 lbs may be a factor. Pantoja is durable and has power. Angelo notes the odds are widening and he has already bet on Pantoja.

Cody picks Pantoja, having already bet him by submission. He notes Asakura hasn't gone five rounds and hits hard, but Pantoja gets takedowns when he wants and is relentless. He expects Pantoja to shoot early and often and secure a submission, possibly in later rounds.

Connor emphasizes Pantoja's toughness, durability, and refusal to lose. He notes that Pantoja has never been knocked out and has a strong chin, having eaten heavy shots from fighters like Deiveson Figueiredo. Connor points out that Asakura's game is narrowly defined and that Pantoja's volume and grappling will likely overwhelm him. He also highlights the cage vs. ring adjustment for Asakura, suggesting his wrestling defense may not translate well.

Daniel Vreeland picks Alexandre Pantoja, calling him underrated and well-rounded. He notes that while Asakura has fought good competition in Rizin and Bellator, it's a different level than the UFC. He mentions age is not a major factor since Asakura is 32, and he prefers the known quantity who has proven he can get it done at the highest level.

Daniel acknowledges Asakura's knockout power and history of winning first fights, but ultimately picks Pantoja due to his relentless takedown game, elite back-taking, and championship mindset. He notes Pantoja's high takedown volume and recovery ability, but admits Asakura is dangerous and could win, making this a hesitant pick.

Jeff Fox picks Pantoja, arguing that Asakura only wins if Pantoja is dumb enough to stand and trade for an extended period. He notes that when Pantoja decides to grapple, it shouldn't be a problem, referencing Asakura's loss to Kyoji Horiguchi where he was outgrappled. Fox also mentions Asakura lost to Tim Elliott largely by being outgrappled, and Pantoja is a couple of steps above Elliott in grappling, making it wildly alarming for Asakura backers. He concludes that the longer Pantoja stays on the feet, the more danger he's in, but he likely won't stay there long.

Lucrative James picks Pantoja to win by submission, specifically a rear-naked choke, citing intangibles like Octagon experience, cage wrestling, and rule set differences. He notes Pantoja is hittable but durable, and expects him to overcome early adversity. He predicts a finish in round 2 or 3, but won't bet due to wide odds.

Pantoja is the clear grappler in this matchup and should be able to get the takedowns early to lock up a submission. Asakura could be dangerous in the later rounds if he stops takedowns and showcases his gas tank, but Pantoja will make it a short night by finding the back and submitting him within the first two rounds.

Paul picks Pantoja but notes concerns: Asakura is a dangerous striker with knockout power, and Pantoja has had close fights. However, he believes Pantoja is the better fighter and should win via takedowns and pressure. He mentions Asakura's weight cut issues and lack of recent 125lb fights.

The MMA Guru picks Pantoja, citing his superior grappling chain-wrestling compared to Morab's, which will allow him to take Asakura's back. He notes Pantoja's underrated technical striking, especially body kicks, and his proven chin against Figueiredo. He worries Asakura can be slept by a glancing shot and has been out for a year. He predicts a finish in the first two rounds or a decision.

Angelo picks Pantoja, expecting him to wrestle his way to a win similar to his fight with Brandon Royval. He notes Erceg's unassuming look but acknowledges his skill. He says the 2-1 odds are fair given Pantoja's experience and path to victory.

Big Brady emphasizes Pantoja's superior resume and proven championship rounds. He doubts Erceg's power and finishing ability, predicting Pantoja wins a decision in Brazil. He also mentions a prize pick play on Pantoja over 2.5 takedowns.

Cody picks Pantoja, citing his championship experience, improved cardio, and elite grappling with back-taking ability. He notes Erceg hasn't faced a top-tier grappler like Pantoja and is more of a decision fighter. Cody also likes Pantoja by submission at plus money as a prop.

Daniel Vreeland picks Pantoja to win by decision, citing Pantoja's experience, durability, and ability to manage the home crowd emotions. He acknowledges Erceg's toughness but believes Pantoja's path to victory involves taking the back and grinding out a decision. He disagrees with Cody Duran's early finish prediction, leaning toward a decision due to Erceg's durability.

Daniel Vreeland picks Alexandre Pantoja confidently. He wants to root for Steve Erceg because his story is fun, but he doesn't think Erceg's skills match up. Vreeland notes that Erceg's best grappling moments come from countering shots, but Pantoja is nearly impossible to counter on takedowns. Erceg's striking power is also neutralized by Pantoja's defensive soundness. Vreeland emphasizes Pantoja's top game as possibly the best in MMA, comparing it to Islam Makhachev. He says Erceg's scrambling and countering style won't work against Pantoja's positional dominance.

Jeff Fox picks Alexandre Pantoja, surprised the line is as close as -185. He thinks this fight is too early for Erceg, who hasn't faced high-caliber opponents. Fox notes that Pantoja is happy to be champion and fights in Brazil, so he won't drop the ball. Technically, Pantoja is dangerous everywhere, with strong grappling and striking. Fox doesn't think Erceg's strengths (countering shots, throwing bombs) will work against Pantoja, who is defensively sound and has arguably the best top game in MMA. He says if Erceg were +300 or higher he might talk himself into it, but at these odds he sees Pantoja steamrolling him.

Erceg's BJJ black belt and ability to stay out of bad positions will allow him to survive Pantoja's early onslaught. He will force Pantoja to work and turn up the volume in the later rounds, eventually finding a finish as Pantoja slows down. Erceg's slicker striking in deep waters will catch Pantoja off guard, leading to a TKO victory.

Paul picks Pantoja, emphasizing his superior grappling control and ability to take backs. He questions Erceg's competition level and notes Pantoja's cardio has held up in five-round fights. Paul sees Erceg's path to victory as low and recommends Pantoja as a money-line play.

Angelo picks Pantoja to win by finish in the third or fourth round, citing Pantoja's grappling advantage and Royval's low takedown defense. He notes that Pantoja already won the rematch two years ago and expects a similar outcome. He has a 'good size bet' on Pantoja.

Big Brady picks Pantoja to win by first-round submission, recalling their first fight where Pantoja was exhausted but capitalized on a Royval mistake to choke him out. He notes Royval's poor striking defense (50% striking defense) and tendency to make mistakes on the mat, giving up his back and position. Brady believes Pantoja's submission game is elite and that Royval cannot afford errors at this level. He expects an exciting banger but sees Pantoja finding a finish early.

Cody picks Royval as an underdog, citing his chaotic style, improved striking, and ability to scramble back to his feet after takedowns. He notes that Royval trains at altitude in Denver and has solid cardio, while Pantoja's cardio is overblown but his body language looks tired. Cody acknowledges the risk: Royval has durability issues and was submitted by Pantoja before, but at +160 he sees value.

Daniel Vreeland picks Brandon Royval as an upset, attributing Royval's loss in the first fight to a rushed return from injury. He believes Royval's striking has improved and that his scrambles will keep the fight on the feet. Vreeland notes Royval's recent wins over Matt Schnell and Kai Kara-France by submission show his dangerous ground game. He thinks Royval can hang with Pantoja on the feet and win the rematch.

Jeff Fox picks Alexandre Pantoja, stating he is the better fighter overall and has already beaten Royval. He questions the quality of Royval's recent opponents, noting that Pantoja has faced tougher competition. Fox believes Pantoja will successfully defend his title for the first time.

Lucrative James picks Brandon Royval outright. He believes Royval was breaking Pantoja in their first fight before getting submitted, and he thinks Royval's pace is the highest at flyweight. He argues that Pantoja may have been breaking and that Royval's motivation is higher as the challenger. He acknowledges Pantoja's submission threat but feels the value is on Royval as an underdog.

The host favors Pantoja due to his discipline, technique, and masterful Jiu-Jitsu, which he believes will be too much for Royval's chaotic style. He notes that in their first fight, Pantoja consistently secured Royval's back and eventually got a rear-naked choke. He also points out Royval's poor takedown defense and expects Pantoja to get the fight to the ground and find a submission. He acknowledges Royval's upset potential but trusts the more reliable fighter.

Paul picks Pantoja, arguing that Royval's level of competition is lower and that Pantoja has never been finished. He points to Pantoja's performance against Brandon Moreno where he landed 129 significant strikes, a knockdown, and six takedowns. Paul believes Pantoja's cardio issues are overblown and that Royval tends to fade in dogfights, while Pantoja is an absolute dog.

Angelo picks Moreno but disagrees with the 2-to-1 odds, thinking Pantoja has a clear striking advantage. He notes Moreno's pace, wrestling improvements, and takedowns as key factors. Pantoja is durable and a good grappler, but has been beaten by wrestlers. He expects a dogfight and advises against parlaying Moreno.

Big Brady picks Alexandre Pantoja to win a close decision. He notes that Pantoja is 2-0 against Moreno, but those fights were years ago. He believes Pantoja is the better striker with more power and better grappling, and he expects Pantoja to win the early rounds. However, he is concerned about Pantoja's cardio in a five-round fight, as Moreno has proven he can go 25 minutes. He thinks Pantoja wins rounds 1-3 and loses 4-5, making it a split decision. He says the line makes no sense and that Pantoja is live.

Cody picks Pantoja as an underdog, noting he has beaten Moreno twice before. He believes Pantoja's superior ground game and power shots can be effective early, while Moreno is hittable and gets rocked. He thinks Pantoja's takedown defense is poor but his submission threat is real. He prefers a live bet on Moreno later if he survives early rounds.

Connor picks Moreno but with hesitation, noting that Pantoja has won twice before and is a dangerous mauler. He acknowledges Moreno's development, especially his jab, but worries about Moreno's tendency to get into scrappy fights. Connor thinks Moreno's best path is to use his reach and avoid grappling exchanges, but he's not fully confident given Pantoja's proven ability.

Daniel Levi picks Pantoja, primarily because he values the plus-170 odds as a betting opportunity against any flyweight. He acknowledges that Moreno has improved his composure and had big moments in recent fights, but believes Pantoja's jiu-jitsu is the nastiest in the division and that he has never been finished. Levi notes that Pantoja has beaten Moreno twice before (submission and 30-26 decision), though those fights were years ago. He expresses concern about Pantoja's potential to fade in championship rounds due to his aggressive style, but is willing to take that risk at the underdog price.

James picks Pantoja at plus money, disagreeing with Moreno being a -200 favorite. He argues that skill-for-skill Pantoja is the favorite, and the perceived cardio disadvantage is overblown. He notes Pantoja has beaten Moreno twice, including a submission, and has pushed a hard pace in striking fights like against Figueiredo. He thinks the line is too wide and Pantoja has value.

Moreno has improved boxing, footwork, and cardio, which will be key in a five-round fight. Pantoja is dangerous early with power and BJJ, but fades late. Moreno will survive the early onslaught and overwhelm Pantoja in deep waters, likely getting a finish. Fight doesn't go to decision is the best prop.

Paul leans toward Moreno but is not confident at -190. He notes Moreno's experience in five-round fights and better cardio, while Pantoja has never gone five rounds. He thinks Moreno's volume and leg kicks will pay off in later rounds. He suggests waiting to bet Moreno live after the first round or two for a better price.

The MMA Guru picks Alexandre Pantoja to win by submission (rear-naked choke) late in the first round. He believes Pantoja's forward pressure and grappling will force Moreno to be hesitant and defensive. He notes that Moreno builds into fights and may be afraid of Pantoja's submission threat. He cites Pantoja's striking improvements and ability to take the back.

Big Brady picks Alexandre Pantoja to win by second-round submission. He considers Pantoja underrated, noting his wins over Moreno and Kara-France. He highlights Pantoja's durability and elite grappling, while Perez has been submitted multiple times. He expects Pantoja to mix in takedowns and eventually submit Perez.

Cody picks Pantoja, citing Perez's long layoff (two years), multiple fight cancellations, and a bad weight miss. He notes that Perez is talented but we don't know where he's at. Pantoja is a junkyard dog with good power, grappling, and improving cardio. He thinks Pantoja will clip Perez, hurt him, and possibly get a submission. He also mentions that the -180 price might be a bit steep but still favors Pantoja.

Daniel is high on Pantoja, calling him extremely underrated and talented. He notes Pantoja has beaten both Moreno and Kara-France on TUF and in the UFC, and has wins over Manel Kape and Brandon Royval. He thinks Pantoja will submit Perez after a brief striking exchange. He questions Perez's ability when opponents stand up to him, citing the Benavidez and Figueiredo fights. However, he missed the line at -150 and refuses to force a bet at -185, so he passes on betting.

Preet picks Pantoja, seeing either a club-and-sub or submission victory via grappling scrambles. He acknowledges Perez's skills—heavy hands, wrestling, calf kicks—but thinks Pantoja's opportunistic grappling and finishing ability will prevail. He finds the fight volatile and is confused by the totals, but ultimately sides with Pantoja.

Paul also picks Pantoja, echoing concerns about Perez's inactivity and weight issues. He notes that Perez is talented but hasn't fought in two years and missed weight in his last attempt. Pantoja has advantages in power and grappling, and Paul expects Pantoja to clip him with something and possibly get a submission. He says until he sees Perez on the scale, he can't trust him.

Big Brady picks Brandon Royval after initially leaning towards Pantoja. He switched after noticing Pantoja's gas tank issues, as he slows down in the third round. He believes Royval's unorthodox style and size advantage can make it competitive, and he can take over in the third round. He predicts a split decision win for Royval.

Cody picks Pantoja, citing his well-rounded game, BJJ black belt, and experience against top competition. He questions Royval's cardio and durability, noting Royval gassed against Moreno. He believes Pantoja can grind out a win if it goes the distance.

Royval thrives in chaos and will push a pace that may expose Pantoja's cardio issues. Pantoja is the more skilled fighter, but Royval's wild style can lead to finishes. I'm leaning Royval by TKO or submission in the second or third round, and I like the under 2.5 rounds.

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Pantoja. He notes Royval's flashy style but questions his ability to finish Pantoja early. He believes Pantoja's durability and grappling will be too much for Royval over three rounds.

Big Brady picks Alexandre Pantoja, emphasizing his elite grappling and durability. He notes that Manel Kape has struggled with wrestlers and grapplers, and once taken down, he has little to offer off his back. He expects Pantoja to take the fight to the mat and find a submission, predicting a third-round rear-naked choke.

Daniel Levi picks Pantoja, emphasizing his massive grappling advantage and the need to take Kape down to avoid getting knocked out. He notes Kape's knockout power and Pantoja's tendency to brawl, but believes Pantoja can expose Kape on the ground. He mentions Kape's past losses to wrestlers and Pantoja's losses only to top competition.

Pantoja is a high-level jiu-jitsu black belt with experience against top flyweights. He should look to take the fight to the ground, where Kape has struggled. Kape is making his UFC debut and has fought mostly in a ring, so the cage could be a factor. Pantoja's chin is solid enough to survive Kape's early attacks. I expect Pantoja to get takedowns and eventually secure a submission. The longer the fight goes, the more it favors Kape, so Pantoja needs an early finish.

Big Brady favors Pantoja strongly, citing superior striking (more power, volume) and BJJ. He thinks Askarov's only advantage is wrestling, but Pantoja's scrambles and reversals negate that. He predicts Pantoja will land harder shots and win a decision, and would consider betting if the line gets closer.

Daniel Levi picks Pantoja to win by knockout. He argues that Pantoja has the edge in almost every area and that Askarov's best chance is to stall on top, but Askarov is not the wrestler that Dustin Ortiz is. He notes that Askarov is vulnerable after scrambles when returning to the feet, and Pantoja's power will be too much. He also mentions that Pantoja has beaten top guys like Moreno twice and Kai Kara-France.