A.J. Dobson

1-3
Record
Age / DOB 34
(Jan 18, 1992)
Height 6' 1"
Weight 185 lbs.
Reach 76"
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages
4.29 Sig. Strikes / Min
46.0% Sig. Strike Acc.
5.31 Absorbed / Min
46.0% Strike Defense
1.67 TD Avg / 15 min
75.0% TD Accuracy
65.0% TD Defense
0.3 Sub. / Fight
Win Methods (1)
KO/TKO 0
Submission 0
Decision 1
Loss Methods (3)
KO/TKO 1
Submission 0
Decision 2

Fight History

Result / Opponent
Event & Date
Method/Round
Links
Comments
KO (punches) R1 4:33
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Edmen Shahbazyan 1 27 of 43 62% 31 of 51 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:49
A.J. Dobson 0 15 of 46 32% 20 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Edmen Shahbazyan 1 27 of 43 62% 31 of 51 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:49
A.J. Dobson 0 15 of 46 32% 20 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Edmen Shahbazyan 27 of 43 62% 19 of 34 2 of 3 6 of 6 16 of 24 1 of 3 10 of 16
A.J. Dobson 15 of 46 32% 7 of 36 2 of 2 6 of 8 12 of 43 3 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Edmen Shahbazyan 27 of 43 62% 19 of 34 2 of 3 6 of 6 16 of 24 1 of 3 10 of 16
A.J. Dobson 15 of 46 32% 7 of 36 2 of 2 6 of 8 12 of 43 3 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
A.J. Dobson vs. Edmen Shahbazyan
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Shahbazyan (-198), Dobson (+164)

Round 1
In the “featured fight of the night” slot, two relatively young middleweights are both at a crossroads. After starting out his UFC tenure red hot and surging into the rankings, Shahbazyan (12-4, 5-4 UFC) has hit a wall and won just once in five outings. Dobson (7-2, 1 NC; 1-2 UFC) has not struggled quite as much, and a win could right his ship in the Octagon to .500. Both men will try to establish themselves while referee Mark Smith watches on, and they lead off with hands being clapped together. Shahbazyan lands first with a low kick, and Dobson springs into action with a three-punch combo. Shahbazyan tries another lazy kick, and Dobson once more meets him with three in a row. Dobson is a coiled spring ready to strike, and Shahbazyan is more cautious and landing single strikes. Dobson shrugs off a calf kick and puts a one-two on the chin, and he takes two left hands on the temple to back him off for a moment. Dobson chips at the lead leg twice until they crash together throwing hands, and he tags “The Golden Boy” with a right hand. Shahbazyan is stunned and shoots for a takedown, and Dobson stands him up with a guillotine choke try. Dobson looks to make him pay with short shots, and Shahbazyan gloms onto him and hits a trip takedown. Dobson scrambles madly to get out of bad position, and he manages to flip him over and get into the guard of his foe. Dobson connects with left hands, and Shahbazyan answers with elbows off his back. Dobson clubs his opponent with right hands until Shahbazyan wraps him up and looks for an armbar. Dobson shrugs it off and absorbs more elbows to the side of the head as Shahbazyan squirms his way to the fence. Shahbazyan stands back up with the wall behind him, and he lands a knee on the inside and turns Dobson around in the clinch. Shahbazyan tries to wrangle Dobson down to the mat, and Dobson nearly falls on top of him until Shahbazyan muscles his way back up. Dobson pushes off out of the clinch and catches Shahbazyan with a left hand, and he beats Shahbazyan to the punch with a pair of strikes. Dobson lunges out with a left, and he chains a few punches together and gets caught with a vicious left hand.
Dobson crumbles to the mat, and Shahbazyan jackhammers him with punches and ferocious elbows. Dobson teeters on the edge of consciousness as Shahbazyan delivers punishment, and the strikes put him out as his head bounces off the mat.
Shahbazyan continues punching until Smith recognizes that Dobson is unconscious and he calls a halt to the fight. What a dramatic round for Shahbazyan, who outlasts a rough few minutes to knock Dobson unconscious. This marks the first time that Dobson has been finished as a professional, while clocking in as Shahbazyan’s first stoppage in the first round since 2019.

The Official Result
Edmen Shahbazyan def. A.J. Dobson R1 4:33 via KO (Elbows and Punches)
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 17, 2024 (6 days before fight)
A.J. Dobson

Angelo picks A.J. Dobson as an underdog, surprised by the plus 160 odds. He believes Dobson has plenty of power, wrestling, and chin to win. He plans to wait for prop bets, specifically a plus 3.5 round bet, to protect against a decision loss where Dobson wins at least one round.

plus 3.5 round bet if available
"I like AJ to win he has plenty of power plenty of wrestling plenty of chin to survive AJ's going to be the pick and even though I love these dog odds plus 160 I'll probably wait for prop bets and do a plus three and a half bet"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Edmen Shahbazyan

Big Brady picks Edmen Shahbazyan, believing he is the better striker and more active. He notes Shahbazyan's takedown defense is not terrible and that Dobson is low volume. He acknowledges Shahbazyan's cardio issues but expects him to win the first two rounds and hold on for a 29-28 decision.

"I'll take him to hold on I'm going to take shabaz in here to to win these first two rounds and then kind of grease out the third round and and win this fight by decision 29-28"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Edmen Shahbazyan

Cody picks Shahbazyan, believing he will outclass Dobson on the feet and land a knockout. He notes Shahbazyan's power and finishing ability, but also acknowledges his cardio issues. Cody bets the under 2.5 rounds, expecting a finish.

under 2.5 rounds
"I think Edmond shabazian eventually just kind of outclasses him on the feet lands an absolute nuke."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Mar 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Edmen Shahbazyan

Daniel Vreeland leans toward Edmen Shahbazyan because he believes A.J. Dobson won't push the pace enough to expose Shahbazyan's cardio issues. He acknowledges Shahbazyan has broken in extended fights before but thinks Dobson's low output favors Shahbazyan. He is not confident enough to bet the favorite.

"I'm going to lean towards Edmund because I think that Dobson's not going to push the pace necessary to get Edmond to that state of wanting to look for the door"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Edmen Shahbazyan

Shahbazyan has a striking and speed advantage, and his submission game is solid. However, his cardio is a major concern; he tends to slow down. Dobson is a low-output striker with mediocre wrestling, but he has a better gas tank. Shahbazyan should land easily and could finish early, possibly by submission. A small sprinkle on Dobson in round three is mentioned, but the pick is Shahbazyan inside the distance.

Shahbazyan by submission at +900; small sprinkle on Dobson in round 3
"I'm going to pick shabazi here I think he wins inside the distance maybe a small sprinkle on Dobson in round three is not a bad idea but I think shabazi will do a better job all around to get his hand raised."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Edmen Shahbazyan

Paul leans toward the over 2.5 rounds, citing Shahbazyan's cardio issues and Dobson's durability. He thinks Dobson will try to wrestle and slow the fight down, which could lead to a decision. Paul picks Shahbazyan but expects a tough fight, possibly going to decision.

over 2.5 rounds
"I would go shasan by decision."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Edmen Shahbazyan

The MMA Guru picks Edmen Shahbazyan over A.J. Dobson, citing Shahbazyan's speed and accuracy. He thinks Shahbazyan will land a right hand and finish with uppercuts and knees against the cage. He predicts a first-round TKO, noting Dobson's lack of speed and inability to get takedowns.

first round TKO
"I'm going with Edmund shabazian... first round TKO for Edmund shabazian"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
A.J. Dobson 0 67 of 134 50% 98 of 176 2 of 3 66% 0 0 4:33
Tafon Nchukwi 0 53 of 99 53% 59 of 106 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 A.J. Dobson 0 34 of 65 52% 36 of 69 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:13
Tafon Nchukwi 0 24 of 45 53% 24 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 A.J. Dobson 0 28 of 51 54% 29 of 53 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:23
Tafon Nchukwi 0 26 of 48 54% 27 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 A.J. Dobson 0 5 of 18 27% 33 of 54 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:57
Tafon Nchukwi 0 3 of 6 50% 8 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
A.J. Dobson 67 of 134 50% 19 of 75 12 of 18 36 of 41 61 of 119 2 of 5 4 of 10
Tafon Nchukwi 53 of 99 53% 11 of 47 12 of 15 30 of 37 49 of 92 4 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 A.J. Dobson 34 of 65 52% 6 of 31 10 of 15 18 of 19 31 of 59 0 of 0 3 of 6
Tafon Nchukwi 24 of 45 53% 4 of 20 7 of 10 13 of 15 24 of 44 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 A.J. Dobson 28 of 51 54% 12 of 31 2 of 3 14 of 17 26 of 47 2 of 4 0 of 0
Tafon Nchukwi 26 of 48 54% 6 of 25 5 of 5 15 of 18 22 of 42 4 of 6 0 of 0
3 A.J. Dobson 5 of 18 27% 1 of 13 0 of 0 4 of 5 4 of 13 0 of 1 1 of 4
Tafon Nchukwi 3 of 6 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 4 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Aug 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
A.J. Dobson

Angelo picks Dobson as an underdog but with low confidence. He notes Dobson has better wrestling and a sturdier chin, but worries he may be afraid to strike with Nchukwi. He hasn't bet yet.

"I like AJ in this Underdog spot"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Aug 7, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Tafon Nchukwi

Big Brady picks Tafon Nchukwi to win by decision, but is not confident due to chin concerns. He praises Nchukwi's volume, cardio, and wrestling, but notes he has been knocked out in his last two losses. He thinks Nchukwi should be the better striker over 15 minutes and can win minutes. He worries about Dobson's power but believes Nchukwi's volume will carry him.

"give me give me tafon by decision the chin seriously worries me a little bit though"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
A.J. Dobson

Cody picks Dobson, heavily fading Nchukwi. He questions Nchukwi's age (suspects he's older than listed), criticizes his slow speed, low volume, and lack of power. He notes Dobson is younger, faster, and still improving with a good camp (Matt Brown, Mark Coleman). He thinks Dobson's speed and wrestling will be key, and that Nchukwi may miss weight or look bad at weigh-ins.

Mentioned weigh-ins are key; will bet Dobson more if Nchukwi looks bad
"plus money on Dobson whatever I would take it I think he's got the speed of edge work some from the outside maybe mixes in a couple takedowns it's his coming out party"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
A.J. Dobson

James slightly favors Dobson, citing his speed and power. He thinks Dobson is faster and hits harder, which could be the difference. However, he calls the fight extremely close and says he would flip the lines to make Dobson -150 and Nchukwi +120. He is unsure if he will bet it due to the closeness.

"I'd play Dobson here because I don't think anyone should be the underdog... I probably favor Dobson very slightly."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Tafon Nchukwi

Nchukwi is the better technical striker and should outwork Dobson over 15 minutes. Dobson lacks technical aspects in both wrestling and striking and relies on physical capabilities. Nchukwi is on a losing streak but had good moments in those fights. As long as he stays conscious, he should win by decision.

Nchukwi by decision
"give me in chukwi though and I think as long as he stays conscious he'll do a good enough job of working AJ Dobson and eventually winning this fight by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
A.J. Dobson

Paul also picks Dobson, agreeing with Cody's fade of Nchukwi. He notes Nchukwi's move to 185 hasn't worked due to lack of speed, and that Dobson showed grappling improvements in his last fight. He thinks Dobson's wrestling and athleticism will be too much for Nchukwi, and that weigh-ins will be crucial. He will likely bet Dobson if Nchukwi looks depleted.

Weigh-ins key; will bet Dobson if Nchukwi looks bad
"I'm actually picking the underdog uh AJ Dobson with you"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
A.J. Dobson

The MMA Guru picks A.J. Dobson over Tafon Nchukwi, arguing that Dobson's losses to Jacob Malkoun and Armen Petrosyan are to quality unranked middleweights. He notes Dobson's finishing potential and experience since 2012, while Nchukwi is coming off two KO losses, which may make him hesitant. He trusts Dobson to win by finish.

"I'm gonna go AJ Dobson over tap on and check where"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jacob Malkoun 0 52 of 90 57% 68 of 110 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
A.J. Dobson 0 80 of 128 62% 183 of 255 6 of 16 37% 0 0 9:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jacob Malkoun 0 41 of 69 59% 46 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
A.J. Dobson 0 24 of 48 50% 26 of 50 1 of 8 12% 0 0 1:01
2 Jacob Malkoun 0 4 of 12 33% 5 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
A.J. Dobson 0 25 of 37 67% 82 of 108 2 of 4 50% 0 0 3:45
3 Jacob Malkoun 0 7 of 9 77% 17 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
A.J. Dobson 0 31 of 43 72% 75 of 97 3 of 4 75% 0 0 4:31
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jacob Malkoun 52 of 90 57% 41 of 79 6 of 6 5 of 5 44 of 78 5 of 9 3 of 3
A.J. Dobson 80 of 128 62% 70 of 118 9 of 9 1 of 1 29 of 57 4 of 7 47 of 64
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jacob Malkoun 41 of 69 59% 33 of 61 4 of 4 4 of 4 37 of 62 4 of 7 0 of 0
A.J. Dobson 24 of 48 50% 22 of 46 2 of 2 0 of 0 23 of 46 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Jacob Malkoun 4 of 12 33% 2 of 10 1 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 10 1 of 2 0 of 0
A.J. Dobson 25 of 37 67% 23 of 35 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 4 3 of 5 21 of 28
3 Jacob Malkoun 7 of 9 77% 6 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 6 0 of 0 3 of 3
A.J. Dobson 31 of 43 72% 25 of 37 5 of 5 1 of 1 5 of 7 0 of 0 26 of 36
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
A.J. Dobson vs. Jacob Malkoun

Round 1
Training partners of fan-favorite ex-UFC champs will come to blows in this middleweight encounter, as Strong Style Fight Team’s Dobson (6-0, 1 NC; 0-0 UFC) – home of Stipe Miocic – meets PMA Super Martial Arts prospect Malkoun (5-1, 1-1 UFC), a teammate of headliner Robert Whittaker. The third man in the cage for what could be a quick one is referee Herb Dean, who is ready for whatever comes his way as he bears witness to a touch of gloves. Dobson quickly fires off a right hand, and he slips back to sling a right hand as Malkoun just dodges in time. Dobson cracks his foe with a right hand, forcing the Aussie to shoot for a desperation takedown. Dobson gets lifted up in the air, but he slithers his legs down to the mat so that he can keep his balance and not get taken down, in an impressive display of balance. “Mamba” grinds Dobson against the fence until Dobson breaks off, and he loose a quick one-two that connects cleanly on the beard of Malkoun. Dobson tries to time a right hand low when Malkoun attacks for a takedown, and Dobson once more keeps his balance when Malkoun elevates him. The newcomer manages to break the grip, pushes off and returns to his preferred boxing range. Malkoun lets go with a few punches, but Dobson grabs him to knee him in the body a few times. Malkoun flicks out a jab, but Dobson ignores them and answers with some of his own. A quick chain of punches come out as Malkoun retreats, and he connects with a solid leg kick at the end of a combination. Dobson snaps the head back with a punch and goes up high with a kick, and every strike that lands seems to draw a reaction out of his opponent. Malkoun sits down on a right hand, but Dobson does not even budge when it smacks into his cheek. Dobson stands firm, delivering a couple more one-twos and a body kick. When Malkoun lifts his man’s leg up in pursuit of a takedown, Dobson hops back and bounces off the cage wall to get free. Dobson gives chase when he lands a few punches, and Malkoun is rocked from an accumulation of damage. Dobson takes the center of the cage and swats at his shaky man, clipping him with a left hook and a one-two that bounces off the side of the head. Malkoun drops down low for a single, lifting Dobson’s leg up in the air and finally securing a takedown. He can only maintain top position for a few seconds before the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dobson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dobson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dobson

Round 2
They clap hands to start of the second round, and Dobson, brimming with confidence, strides out with a few jabs. He gets off a right hand, and closes the distance to slam a knee into the Aussie’s midsection. As he lands a few more strikes, he draws out another takedown entry from “Mamba,” but that too fails as Dobson turns him around and knees him in the body. They jockey for position against the fence, and Malkoun stays doggedly in pursuit of a takedown but nothing presents itself. Dobson is able to get Malkoun to back off when he sets up a Thai clinch, and he misses a knee by an inch. Malkoun resets, crashes forward and secures a takedown. The American gets to his knees without much issue, stands back up, and gets wrenched back down with a mat return. Malkoun begins to smash Dobson in the side of the head with his fists, and Dobson is hurt and in trouble as cornerman Mark Coleman bellows for Dobson to get up. Malkoun does not let him up, raining down left hands as he keeps Dobson stuck on a knee. The strikes turn from damaging ones to more frustrating shots, but Malkoun is able to step over and sit down on Dobson’s thigh to ground him. Dobson thinks to explode, but Malkoun continues to grind and slug Dobson in the face with powerful left hands. Malkoun pursues a guillotine choke when working Dobson over, and he fails on that but does not let Dobson off the hook. Dobson bursts back to his feet with 10 seconds to go, and he pops Malkoun with a pair of punches before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Malkoun
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Malkoun
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Malkoun

Round 3
The middleweights greet in the center of the cage, and Dobson appears energized when back upright again. He flicks out a jab that makes Malkoun blink it out a few times, and he catches Malkoun coming in with a right hand. The Aussie changes levels for a takedown, and the defense does not hold up for Dobson this time, as he gets pulled down to the mat. Dobson remains on his knees before jumping back up, and he succumbs to a mat return when Malkoun powers him back down. “Mamba” holds on from behind, landing sporadic right hands until the unbeaten fighter stands up. Malkoun continues his assault of takedown tries, and he sucks Dobson’s legs out beneath him and lands in half guard. Dobson wriggles himself to the corner between the floor and the wall, and Coleman’s encouragement is still somehow louder than all the boos raining down in the building combined. Malkoun does not register the crowd’s disappointment with his “embrace the grind” tactics, as he thumps down on Dobson with right hands. The fighters start talking to each other, with Dobson admitting his foe is stronger than he thought, and they continue to converse as Malkoun is pounding on him. Dobson tries to get into a slugfest from his back, with punches from his back, but Malkoun’s are considerably harder. Malkoun switches from punches to elbows as he staves off a standup from Dean, and precious seconds tick off the clock while Malkoun grinds him out. With just a few seconds left in the fight, Dobson somersaults backwards to get out of the position, stands up and wings a high kick, but it comes up short of the mark right before the fight ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Malkoun (29-28 Malkoun)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Malkoun (29-27 Malkoun)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Malkoun (29-28 Malkoun)

The Official Result
Jacob Malkoun def. A.J. Dobson via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
A.J. Dobson

Angelo picks A.J. Dobson, citing his incredible hand speed and power. He worries that Malkoun could wrestle but believes Dobson's speed advantage will allow him to land three times for every one of Malkoun's looping strikes. He dismisses the 'fade the contender series' narrative and expects Dobson to laser down the middle and touch Malkoun up.

"i like aj in this fight i do worry that if jacob just ducks and shoots he'll control aj but the fact that aj is not gun shy at all and will have a very clear speed advantage i like him to touch jacob three times to everyone"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Feb 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
A.J. Dobson

Big Brady sees this fight going one of two ways: Dobson knocking out Malkoun early or Malkoun wrestling Dobson to a decision. He leans toward Dobson because of his power and finishing ability, but admits he's not confident due to lack of information on Dobson's takedown defense. He compares it to Malkoun's win over Abdul Razak Alhassan where Malkoun used wrestling. Brady picks Dobson by first round knockout but says he can't be too confident.

Dobson by first round knockout
"I think dobson knocks him out and again i can't be too confident in this one"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Feb 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jacob Malkoun

Cody leans Malkoun but is not confident. He notes Malkoun's grappling looked good against Alhassan, but his chin is a concern after the Phil Hawes KO. He thinks Dobson is explosive and could land a big shot, but Malkoun's path is via takedowns.

"the official pick gonna have to go with another favorite jacob malcolm"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Feb 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jacob Malkoun

Daniel Levi picks Jacob Malkoun for an upset win, but is hesitant about the early going. He notes that A.J. Dobson is a freak athlete with power, but tends to overexert and fatigue. Malkoun's game plan of attempting many takedowns could work if he weathers the early storm. Levi mentions that Dobson was finished by a bum in amateurs, but that was years ago.

"i'll take jacob kuhn for an upset win"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Feb 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
A.J. Dobson

Dobson has power and trains with strong camps, but his grappling and cardio are unproven. Malkoun will shoot for takedowns early, and if Dobson can't stop them or finish early, Malkoun could take over in later rounds. Dobson's only decision win was against a low-level opponent. The pick is based on trusting Dobson's camp and power, but it's a slight lean.

Dobson by KO; live bet on Malkoun in round 2 if Dobson looks tired
"as an official prediction and as official pick i'm actually gonna go with dobson here i i think i'm gonna trust in his training camp and the guys that he's been around"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Feb 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jacob Malkoun

Paul picks Malkoun, citing his grappling advantage and ability to grind out a win. He notes Dobson is wild and may gas. He expects Malkoun to take Dobson down and control him, but acknowledges the volatility.

under 2.5 rounds -145
"i'm gonna pick malcoon just because i think that aj dobson is incredibly sloppy"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jacob Malkoun

The MMA Guru picks Jacob Malkoun, believing he has overcome his debut jitters and will use his grappling to control A.J. Dobson. He notes Dobson's debut pressure and Malkoun's experience against better competition like Abdul Razak Alhassan.

"i'm actually gonna go with jacob malcoon here"