UFC on ESPN: Ribas vs. Namajunas

Angelo picks Rose Namajunas despite rooting for Amanda Ribas. He acknowledges Rose's superior skills and accomplishments but is concerned about her mental state and training camp. He notes that Rose has not looked bad in recent losses, being outstruck by a larger striker in Manon Fiorot and having a boring fight with Carla Esparza. He hopes Ribas wins but cannot pick against Rose's talent.

Big Brady picks Rose Namajunas, stating she is the much better fighter with a better resume. He notes Rose is the better striker, has good grappling, and has gone five rounds before. He points out Ribas is less durable (knocked out three times) and this is her first five-round fight. He predicts a decision win for Rose.

Cody acknowledges Rose's technical skills and well-rounded game, but highlights her mental inconsistency and tendency to have flat performances like the Carla Esparza fight. He notes that Rose is capable of looking like a -500 favorite or just handing rounds away. He ultimately picks Rose but with hesitancy due to these red flags.

Daniel Vreeland leans toward Amanda Ribas if the fight goes past the first two rounds, citing Rose's tendency to fade or lose focus when extended. He notes Ribas has better output, wrestling, and durability in later rounds, while Rose's path is an early knockout. He acknowledges Rose's danger but prefers the dog at plus money.

Namajunas has superior technical striking and should be able to set traps and land clean shots. Ribas is durable but leaves openings and has been finished by technical strikers before. Namajunas should stop takedowns and control the striking, likely finishing by TKO in the third round. The under on 4.5 rounds is favored, indicating a finish is expected.

Paul points out that Amanda Ribas has been bouncing between weight classes and hasn't filled out her frame at 125. He credits Rose's performance against Manon Fiorot, where she fought through a broken hand, and believes Rose will learn from her flat performance against Carla Esparza. He picks Rose but acknowledges the possibility of another lackluster showing.

The MMA Guru picks Rose Namajunas over Amanda Ribas, citing Rose's shot placement and five-round experience. He thinks Ribas' chin is suspect and that Rose will hurt her on the feet. He predicts a second-round rear-naked choke after dropping Ribas with a punch.

Angelo picks Justin Tafa as a low confidence underdog, having placed a quarter-unit bet at +220. He overcorrects from Karl Williams' poor performance against Chase Sherman, where Williams' legs were chewed up and takedowns were ineffective. He believes Tafa's leg kicks, takedown defense, and power can win if it becomes a striking match.

Big Brady picks Karl Williams, citing his wrestling advantage and ability to take Tafa down at will. He notes Tafa has a puncher's chance but has terrible losses and likely offers little off his back. He expects Williams to control the fight on the ground and win a decision.

Cody believes Williams' wrestling will be the key, as he can take down bigger opponents and control the fight. He notes that Tafa's 100% takedown defense is misleading because he hasn't faced strong wrestlers. Cody expects Williams to get takedowns early and wear Tafa down, possibly getting a late finish.

Daniel Vreeland picks Karl Williams, emphasizing his wrestling advantage and Tafa's inability to get up from takedowns. He notes Williams can win by decision, ground-and-pound TKO, or submission, while Tafa's only path is a knockout. He warns Williams not to test his standup but believes one takedown could end the fight.

Tafa has massive power in his hands and 100% takedown defense (though limited attempts). Williams relies on grappling and grinding, but Tafa's power should make him pay on the feet. Williams may have early grappling success, but he is not a finisher and will slow down. Tafa should find a knockout in the second or third round. The knockout prop at +185 is noted.

Paul calls Williams the play of the week, citing his speed and explosiveness as a 205-pounder moving up. He highlights Williams' wrestling credentials, including takedowns against Jimmy Lawson and Lucas Brzozowski. Paul acknowledges the Chase Sherman fight as a concern but believes Williams' plan B striking is sufficient. He trusts Williams to implement his game plan.

The MMA Guru picks Karl Williams over Justin Tafa, expressing frustration with 'fat' heavyweights. He likes Williams' takedowns and thinks he can take Tafa down and ground-and-pound him. He notes Tafa's recent injury and Williams' training at top gyms. He predicts a TKO via ground and pound.

Angelo picks A.J. Dobson as an underdog, surprised by the plus 160 odds. He believes Dobson has plenty of power, wrestling, and chin to win. He plans to wait for prop bets, specifically a plus 3.5 round bet, to protect against a decision loss where Dobson wins at least one round.

Big Brady picks Edmen Shahbazyan, believing he is the better striker and more active. He notes Shahbazyan's takedown defense is not terrible and that Dobson is low volume. He acknowledges Shahbazyan's cardio issues but expects him to win the first two rounds and hold on for a 29-28 decision.

Cody picks Shahbazyan, believing he will outclass Dobson on the feet and land a knockout. He notes Shahbazyan's power and finishing ability, but also acknowledges his cardio issues. Cody bets the under 2.5 rounds, expecting a finish.

Daniel Vreeland leans toward Edmen Shahbazyan because he believes A.J. Dobson won't push the pace enough to expose Shahbazyan's cardio issues. He acknowledges Shahbazyan has broken in extended fights before but thinks Dobson's low output favors Shahbazyan. He is not confident enough to bet the favorite.

Shahbazyan has a striking and speed advantage, and his submission game is solid. However, his cardio is a major concern; he tends to slow down. Dobson is a low-output striker with mediocre wrestling, but he has a better gas tank. Shahbazyan should land easily and could finish early, possibly by submission. A small sprinkle on Dobson in round three is mentioned, but the pick is Shahbazyan inside the distance.

Paul leans toward the over 2.5 rounds, citing Shahbazyan's cardio issues and Dobson's durability. He thinks Dobson will try to wrestle and slow the fight down, which could lead to a decision. Paul picks Shahbazyan but expects a tough fight, possibly going to decision.

The MMA Guru picks Edmen Shahbazyan over A.J. Dobson, citing Shahbazyan's speed and accuracy. He thinks Shahbazyan will land a right hand and finish with uppercuts and knees against the cage. He predicts a first-round TKO, noting Dobson's lack of speed and inability to get takedowns.

Angelo picks Payton Talbott, citing his dangerous striking and the poor performance of Saaiman in his last loss. He notes that Talbott's takedown defense is a concern, but Saaiman is not a great wrestler. He is undecided on a bet but may place a small wager or include Talbott in a high-risk parlay due to the even odds.

Big Brady picks Payton Talbott, citing his striking volume, power, pressure, cardio, and durability advantages. He notes Saaiman's takedown threat is a concern but believes the fight will primarily be on the feet. He predicts Talbott wins by decision, possibly finishing late.

Cody prefers the known commodity in Saaiman, who has proven his toughness and volume. He notes that Talbott is untested and lost the first round against Nick Aguirre. Cody believes Saaiman's forward pressure and volume will earn him rounds, and he likes the plus money on the underdog.

Daniel Vreeland leans toward Payton Talbott, citing his physical attributes, durability, and cardio. He notes Talbott is a slow starter but comes on strong in later rounds, while Saaiman is more technically sound. He expects a competitive fight but thinks Talbott's intangibles edge him out.

Talbott is the cleaner striker with good combinations and improving defensive grappling. Saaiman relies on athleticism and power but has been taken down and ground out before. Talbott should keep the fight standing and land cleaner shots, possibly opening up a finish. Saaiman's power is a threat, but Talbott's technical edge should win a decision.

Paul leans toward Talbott based on his reach advantage and high volume output (145 significant strikes in his Contender Series fight). He acknowledges Saaiman's takedown ability but thinks Talbott's striking and familiarity with the Vegas environment give him an edge. Paul sees it as a close fight.

The MMA Guru picks Cameron Saaiman over Payton Talbott, citing Saaiman's kicks and clinch work as key. He thinks Talbott is kickable and that Saaiman's body kicks and low kicks will be effective. He also favors Saaiman's grappling and scrambles. He predicts Saaiman wins a decision, losing the third round.

Angelo is very confident in Billy Quarantillo, placing a full unit bet on him at -146. He believes Quarantillo's constant forward pressure and high output will overwhelm Zalal, who prefers to point fight from the outside. He expects the line to rebound to -300 and advises jumping on the current value.

Big Brady picks Billy Quarantillo, citing his high volume (almost 8 strikes per minute) compared to Zalal's low volume (2.75). He notes Zalal is durable and has good cardio but will be outworked. He thinks Quarantillo will drown Zalal with activity and win a decision.

Cody picks Quarantillo, citing his volume, durability, and ability to push a pace. He thinks Zalal's wrestling could be neutralized by Quarantillo's scrambling and constant forward pressure. Cody notes that Zalal is returning after a layoff and may not be ready for Quarantillo's relentless style.

Daniel Vreeland leans toward Youssef Zalal, believing he can pick Quarantillo apart with his striking and avoid getting drawn into a brawl. He notes Zalal has never had cardio issues and has won rounds against top competition. He thinks Zalal's maturity and composure will be key, but he would have liked better odds.

Zalal is the better striker with good combinations and cardio. He should be able to outwork Quarantillo on the feet and avoid takedowns. Quarantillo is a slow starter who relies on pressure and grappling, but his takedown success rate is low. Zalal's improved aggression could be key, but there is concern about Quarantillo's clinch and submission threats. Zalal by decision is the pick.

Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing Quarantillo's volume and the value at minus 140. He believes Zalal's path to victory via takedowns is difficult because Quarantillo fights to get back up and throws volume. Paul sees Quarantillo as the clear play.

The MMA Guru picks Youssef Zalal as an underdog over Billy Quarantillo, believing Zalal is a better striker with good cardio and reach. He criticizes Quarantillo's slow movement and poor standup. He thinks Zalal will finish Quarantillo by TKO, catching him coming in with straight punches.

Angelo picks Luis Pajuelo as a low confidence underdog, drawing parallels to Padilla's loss to Kyle Nelson where forward pressure caused problems. He believes Pajuelo's constant forward pressure and aggression will overwhelm Padilla, who lacks wrestling to take the fight down. He expects a close decision but will not bet due to Pajuelo being an untested UFC debut.

Big Brady picks Fernando Padilla, citing his reach and height advantage, better cardio, and grappling. He notes Luis Pajuelo is hittable and has zero striking defense, but is durable. He expects Padilla to land many strikes and eventually break Pajuelo, finishing him by third-round knockout.

Cody picks Pajuelo, citing his physical strength, cardio from training at altitude, and high volume. He notes that Padilla struggles against strong, forward-pressure fighters like Kyle Nelson. Cody expects Pajuelo to outwork and outmuscle Padilla, possibly winning by decision.

Daniel Vreeland picks Fernando Padilla by decision, citing his seven-inch reach advantage and experience. He notes Pajuelo has holes in his game, especially off his back, and tends to brawl recklessly. He believes Padilla will stay on the outside and pick Pajuelo apart, possibly winning a decision.

Pajuelo is a pressure fighter with great durability and a relentless pace. He will move forward and drown Padilla, who tends to slow down in deep waters. Padilla is slick from range but struggles when pressured. Pajuelo should get a TKO, though he must be careful of submissions in the clinch. Pajuelo is a solid underdog play.

Paul agrees with Cody, adding that Pajuelo's volume and power will be too much for Padilla. He likes the plus money on Pajuelo and even suggests a prop bet on Pajuelo by decision at +475.

The MMA Guru picks Luis Pajuelo over Fernando Padilla, highlighting Pajuelo's boxing background as a national champion in Peru. He likes Pajuelo's confidence and composure under fire, and thinks he will find Padilla's chin and body. He predicts a liver shot TKO, noting Padilla's narrow frame. He expresses concern about Pajuelo's takedown defense but doesn't think Padilla will wrestle.

Angelo is confident in Trey Ogden, having placed a half-unit bet on him at -146. He believes Ogden can hang in the striking, get takedowns, and work from top position. He notes that Ogden was winning the striking exchanges in his last fight before the early stoppage, and his grappling should be enough to overcome Holobaugh's BJJ.

Big Brady picks Kurt Holobaugh, citing his dangerous submissions and Trey Ogden's history of being submitted (three times, twice by guillotine). He notes Holobaugh is a wild man who comes forward, while Ogden is more technical but has been submitted before. He predicts Holobaugh will submit Ogden in the second round.

Cody picks Holobaugh, citing his forward pressure, volume, and submission threat. He notes that Ogden's wrestling may not hold Holobaugh down, and Holobaugh's scrambling and aggression could sway judges. Cody sees Holobaugh as the dog with value.

Daniel Vreeland leans toward Kurt Holobaugh, agreeing with the co-host that this is a pick'em fight. He notes Ogden's recent win was against a low-level opponent and that Holobaugh has more power and output. He prefers the underdog in a close fight, citing judging uncertainty.

Ogden showed a complete performance in his last fight (no contest) with seamless striking and grappling. He should dictate the pace from the outside with straight shots and then mix in takedowns. Holobaugh is a BJJ black belt but has poor takedown defense and tends to invite grappling. Ogden's constant movement and jab should cause issues, leading to a decision win.

Paul sides with Cody, noting Holobaugh's experience and dangerous submission game. He thinks Ogden's game plan of taking down Holobaugh is risky due to Holobaugh's ability to scramble and threaten submissions. Paul picks the veteran.

The MMA Guru picks Kurt Holobaugh over Trey Ogden, praising Holobaugh's boxing and ground game. He thinks Holobaugh will drop Ogden and then submit him via guillotine choke after Ogden shoots for a takedown. He notes Holobaugh's experience and full training camp.

Angelo leans towards Julian Erosa as an underdog, citing his higher level of competition and ability to weather a storm and grind out a decision. He notes that Ramos is dangerous but also finishable, while Erosa is tough and can dog fights out. He will monitor the line movement for better value.

Big Brady picks Ricardo Ramos, citing Julian Erosa's poor durability (knocked out seven times at featherweight) and low striking defense (47%). He notes Erosa is hittable and his chin is not getting better after back-to-back knockout losses. He expects Ramos to land something and knock Erosa out in the first round.

Cody picks Erosa as an underdog, citing his volume and unorthodox style. He acknowledges Erosa's weak chin but believes Ramos is not a big power puncher and may struggle with Erosa's pressure. Cody thinks Erosa can win by decision or late finish if he avoids getting knocked out.

Daniel Vreeland picks Ricardo Ramos by first-round knockout, emphasizing that Erosa has a terrible chin and has been dropped multiple times. He believes Ramos should head-hunt and sell out for the finish, as Erosa is dangerous if the fight extends. He notes if it goes past the first round, all bets are off.

Ramos has the grappling edge and should be able to muzzle Erosa's unorthodox striking. Erosa is on a two-fight KO loss streak and may be on the chopping block. Ramos should dictate the pace and win on the scorecards, possibly even latching onto a submission. The fight going to decision is also appealing at plus money.

Paul picks Erosa by KO, noting Ramos's cardio issues and tendency to struggle when missing weight. He believes Erosa's volume and durability will overwhelm Ramos. Paul also likes the under 2.5 rounds, expecting a finish.

The MMA Guru picks Ricardo Ramos over Julian Erosa, citing Ramos's finishing potential and Erosa's recent chin issues. He mentions Erosa's KO losses to Fernando Padilla and Alex Caceres, and a war with Steven Peterson that makes him doubt Erosa. He predicts a first-round KO for Ramos.

Angelo picks Miles Johns but is hesitant because he doesn't trust Johns to wrestle consistently. He notes that Johns has the tools to dominate but often abandons wrestling for power punches. He considers a small bet or parlay with another sketchy fighter, but is not fully confident.

Big Brady picks Cody Gibson, citing Gibson's volume, durability, and cardio advantage. He notes Miles Johns is on short notice and has questionable cardio and durability (both losses inside the distance). He expects Johns to have early success but Gibson to take over and finish him in the third round by knockout.

Cody picks Gibson, citing his forward pressure and wrestling. He notes that Johns has cardio issues and was likely on steroids in his last win. Cody believes Gibson's volume and aggression will earn him rounds, especially if Johns fades. He also likes the over 2.5 rounds.

Daniel Vreeland leans toward Miles Johns, citing his athleticism and one-punch power. He acknowledges Gibson's high output but worries about Gibson's durability and tendency to slow down. He thinks Johns can land a big shot or grind out a win, but he is not confident enough to bet the favorite.

Johns is quick, explosive, and has multiple ways to win: wrestling, power, movement. He slows down late but has improved his cardio. Gibson is a veteran boxer with good footwork but can be taken down and ground out. Johns' speed and variety should be too much, but confidence is not high. Expect a decision win for Johns.

Paul agrees, emphasizing that takedowns may not be scored highly by judges, as seen in recent fights. He thinks Gibson's volume will be the deciding factor. Paul also notes Gibson's toughness and recent Fight of the Night bonus.

The MMA Guru picks Cody Gibson as an underdog over Miles Johns. He believes Johns is breakable under pressure and that Gibson's size and pace will break him. He notes Gibson's height and reach advantage, and thinks knees in the clinch will be key. He predicts a third-round TKO for Gibson.

Angelo is confident in Steven Nguyen, believing he is better everywhere in the fight with superior skills, power, and grappling. He notes that Nguyen is a real prospect with heavy hands and slick submissions, while Errens is durable but sets himself up to be taken down. He would include Nguyen in parlays but not the safety parlay due to his UFC debut status.

Big Brady picks Steven Nguyen by default due to Jarno Errens' extremely low volume (1.67 significant strikes per minute). He notes Nguyen is high volume and active, landing over 8 strikes per minute on the contender series. He thinks Nguyen's toughness and activity will lead to a decision win, though he is not in love with Nguyen as a fighter.

Cody picks Nguyen, citing his high volume and cardio. He notes that Errens has low output and poor cardio, often gassing after a strong start. Cody believes Nguyen's constant pressure and striking volume will overwhelm Errens.

Daniel Vreeland picks Steven Nguyen by decision, citing his high output and durability. He criticizes Errens for poor fight IQ, often dropping opponents then ending up on his back. He believes Nguyen's volume will overwhelm Errens over three rounds.

Nguyen is the better overall fighter with high-level striking and good combinations. However, his striking defense is lacking and he is hittable. Errens could make it close, but Nguyen should win a decision by putting together a better body of work. The line at -180 is too wide for comfort, so no bet is recommended.

Paul agrees, highlighting Nguyen's volume (over 100 significant strikes in fights) and Errens' inability to keep pace. He notes Errens' lack of urgency and poor takedown defense. Paul sees Nguyen as a clear play.

The MMA Guru picks Steven Nguyen over Jarno Errens, citing Nguyen's composure, willingness to push a pace, and ability to handle pressure. He criticizes Errens for not committing to winning and leaving fights to decisions. He thinks Nguyen will be the larger opponent and will push forward, leading to a decision win in the later rounds.

Angelo picks Montse Rendon as a very low confidence pick, citing her ground game as the deciding factor. He notes that Rendon can weather the storm, move forward, and grind out a win on the ground, similar to her win over Tamires Vidal. He sees a wide skill gap on the ground favoring Rendon, but acknowledges Daria's striking power. He considers a plus 3.5 round bet if the odds are favorable.

Big Brady picks Daria Zhelezniakova, impressed by her striking, hand speed, and power. He notes her takedown defense is a potential hole but believes she can win enough minutes on the feet. He mentions that judges are scoring damage over control time, which favors Zhelezniakova if Rendon takes her down but does nothing. He predicts a decision win.

Cody picks Zhelezniakova, citing her striking advantage and power. He notes that Rendon is a grappler who may struggle to get takedowns and hold position. Cody acknowledges the price is high but believes Zhelezniakova's skills on the feet will carry her.

Daniel Vreeland picks Daria Zhelezniakova by decision, praising her striking speed and technique. He notes Rendon's wrestling is limited to catching kicks and that Zhelezniakova can box her up. He expects Zhelezniakova to win all three rounds on the feet.

Rendon has solid basics, good physicality, and a BJJ brown belt. She showed improvement in her last fight by mixing in takedowns. Zhelezniakova is a UFC newcomer with questionable takedown defense and doesn't do anything exceptionally well. Rendon's strength and one-two down the pipe could be the difference. However, the line may move, and Rendon is only a lean at current odds.

Paul picks Zhelezniakova but notes the line has moved too much. He thinks her striking and improved takedown defense will be enough. Paul expects a decision win for Zhelezniakova.

The MMA Guru picks Daria Zhelezniakova over Montse Rendon, believing she is a much better striker. He references the Christian Rodriguez vs. Isaac Dulgarian fight to argue that control time doesn't matter to judges; damage does. He thinks Zhelezniakova will land more shots and win on damage, even if she ends up on bottom. He notes her loss to Melissa Mullins but sees her as the younger, more technical fighter.

Angelo leans towards André Lima because of his cleaner striking technique and solid takedown defense. He notes that Lima needs to keep the fight technical and not get sucked into a brawl, while Severino should try to brawl. However, he is surprised Lima is a 2-to-1 favorite and will not bet on this fight due to the risk of a UFC debut against an undefeated finisher.

Big Brady leans toward the underdog Igor Severino (referred to as eigor D Silva). He notes that Severino is more aggressive, has a killer instinct, and can wrestle. He thinks the line should be closer to a pick'em and that Severino's aggression and takedown ability will be key. He predicts a decision win for Severino.

Cody picks Severino as an underdog, citing his youth, durability, and wrestling. He notes that Lima is more stationary and may struggle with Severino's pace and takedowns. Cody expects a close decision win for Severino.

Daniel Vreeland picks André Lima, citing his superior kickboxing and experience. He notes Lima has excellent striking, takedown defense, and the ability to get back up if taken down. He believes Severino is wilder and less polished, and Lima's grown-man strength will be a factor.

Severino is aggressive, mixes striking and grappling well, and pushes a high pace. Lima is a cleaner technical striker but has cardio issues and tends to slow down. Severino will stay in Lima's face, mix levels, and likely outwork him. Lima may hurt him early, but Severino's pressure should be too much over three rounds.

Paul agrees, noting Severino's wrestling and volume. He thinks Severino's ability to mix in takedowns will be the difference. Paul sees value in the plus money.

The MMA Guru picks André Lima over Igor Severino, noting Severino's youth and lack of experience. He highlights Lima's kickboxing background and composure on the feet, expecting him to counter Severino's wild shots. He predicts a first-round TKO for Lima, as he believes Lima will stay patient and blast counters.

Angelo picks Mick Parkin because he is the more technical fighter with sharper striking and slightly better takedowns. He expects a boring, slow, sloppy heavyweight decision, possibly with a stoppage from Parkin via takedown and ground control. He will stay away from betting unless the over 1.5 rounds line is available, which he would hammer.

Big Brady picks Mick Parkin, believing the fight will primarily be standing. He notes Parkin's striking looked good in his debut but was inconsistent against Kyle Machado. He thinks Parkin will land more strikes at range, while Usman has low volume and relies on power. Brady doubts Usman can knock out Parkin and expects a decision win for Parkin.

Cody picks Parkin, citing his size, mobility, and superior boxing. He criticizes Usman's low output and lack of power. Cody believes Parkin will outwork Usman and win a decision.

Daniel Vreeland leans toward Mohammed Usman, admiring his ability to find a way to win even in ugly fights. He notes Usman has power and wrestling, and can take Parkin down. He thinks Parkin is the cleaner striker but Usman's physicality and grit could carry him.

Parkin has a great gas tank for a heavyweight, good output, and excellent scrambling ability. He will pressure Usman, who has a low-volume kickboxing style and tends to slow down late. Parkin can win by decision or even snatch a late submission, as Usman has been submitted before. Usman's only path is a flash KO, but Parkin should control the fight.

Paul picks Parkin, noting his training with Tom Aspinall and his ability to go the distance. He acknowledges the line movement toward Usman but still favors Parkin's overall game.

The MMA Guru picks Mohammed Usman over Mick Parkin, citing Parkin's poor last performance where he arguably lost and looked bad. He believes Usman's athleticism and wrestling will wear on Parkin as the fight goes on, with Usman landing takedowns in rounds two and three. He notes Parkin's eye swelling in his last fight and thinks Usman's power and pressure will be too much. He predicts a decision win for Usman.