UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Dollaway · Dec 20, 2014 · Light Heavyweight · Completed
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Age 45
Height 6' 2"
Reach 76.0"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 36
Height 6' 2"
Reach 79"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Patrick Cummins
4.26 SLpM
50.0% Str. Acc.
3.35 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
4.49 TD Avg
41.0% TD Acc.
28.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Antônio Carlos Júnior
1.95 SLpM
42.0% Str. Acc.
2.14 SApM
52.0% Str. Def.
3.42 TD Avg
39.0% TD Acc.
53.0% TD Def.
0.8 Sub. Avg
Patrick Cummins - Fight History
LOSS vs Ed Herman
TKO (knee and punches) R1 3:39 · UFC Fight Night: dos Anjos vs. Lee · May 18, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ed Herman 0 22 of 33 66% 22 of 33 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:10
Patrick Cummins 1 11 of 35 31% 14 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ed Herman 0 22 of 33 66% 22 of 33 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:10
Patrick Cummins 1 11 of 35 31% 14 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ed Herman 22 of 33 66% 21 of 31 0 of 1 1 of 1 18 of 29 4 of 4 0 of 0
Patrick Cummins 11 of 35 31% 11 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 1 8 of 28 1 of 4 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ed Herman 22 of 33 66% 21 of 31 0 of 1 1 of 1 18 of 29 4 of 4 0 of 0
Patrick Cummins 11 of 35 31% 11 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 1 8 of 28 1 of 4 2 of 3
LOSS vs Misha Cirkunov
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R1 2:40 · UFC Fight Night: Volkan vs. Smith · Oct 27, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Misha Cirkunov 0 11 of 18 61% 65 of 72 1 of 1 100% 2 0 0:40
Patrick Cummins 0 3 of 5 60% 6 of 8 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Misha Cirkunov 0 11 of 18 61% 65 of 72 1 of 1 100% 2 0 0:40
Patrick Cummins 0 3 of 5 60% 6 of 8 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Misha Cirkunov 11 of 18 61% 2 of 6 9 of 12 0 of 0 1 of 5 9 of 12 1 of 1
Patrick Cummins 3 of 5 60% 0 of 1 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 1 3 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Misha Cirkunov 11 of 18 61% 2 of 6 9 of 12 0 of 0 1 of 5 9 of 12 1 of 1
Patrick Cummins 3 of 5 60% 0 of 1 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 1 3 of 4 0 of 0
LOSS vs Corey Anderson
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–26, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee · Apr 21, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Corey Anderson 0 64 of 119 53% 99 of 162 12 of 13 92% 0 0 8:02
Patrick Cummins 0 31 of 99 31% 44 of 113 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Corey Anderson 0 43 of 75 57% 50 of 82 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:33
Patrick Cummins 0 18 of 53 33% 22 of 58 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:29
2 Corey Anderson 0 16 of 33 48% 24 of 41 5 of 5 100% 0 0 2:17
Patrick Cummins 0 8 of 32 25% 15 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Corey Anderson 0 5 of 11 45% 25 of 39 5 of 6 83% 0 0 4:12
Patrick Cummins 0 5 of 14 35% 7 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Corey Anderson 64 of 119 53% 56 of 107 6 of 10 2 of 2 38 of 85 16 of 22 10 of 12
Patrick Cummins 31 of 99 31% 24 of 85 6 of 12 1 of 2 18 of 79 12 of 19 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Corey Anderson 43 of 75 57% 38 of 68 4 of 6 1 of 1 23 of 49 11 of 15 9 of 11
Patrick Cummins 18 of 53 33% 12 of 46 5 of 5 1 of 2 10 of 41 7 of 11 1 of 1
2 Corey Anderson 16 of 33 48% 13 of 29 2 of 3 1 of 1 13 of 28 3 of 5 0 of 0
Patrick Cummins 8 of 32 25% 8 of 29 0 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 26 3 of 6 0 of 0
3 Corey Anderson 5 of 11 45% 5 of 10 0 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 8 2 of 2 1 of 1
Patrick Cummins 5 of 14 35% 4 of 10 1 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 12 2 of 2 0 of 0
WIN vs Gian Villante
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on Fox: Weidman vs. Gastelum · Jul 22, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Patrick Cummins 0 86 of 182 47% 92 of 188 1 of 11 9% 0 0 3:04
Gian Villante 0 72 of 196 36% 85 of 210 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Patrick Cummins 0 17 of 39 43% 20 of 42 1 of 6 16% 0 0 1:39
Gian Villante 0 23 of 55 41% 35 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Patrick Cummins 0 37 of 71 52% 38 of 72 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:19
Gian Villante 0 24 of 72 33% 24 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Patrick Cummins 0 32 of 72 44% 34 of 74 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:06
Gian Villante 0 25 of 69 36% 26 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Patrick Cummins 86 of 182 47% 70 of 163 7 of 9 9 of 10 74 of 164 12 of 18 0 of 0
Gian Villante 72 of 196 36% 66 of 189 3 of 4 3 of 3 67 of 189 0 of 1 5 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Patrick Cummins 17 of 39 43% 15 of 37 1 of 1 1 of 1 15 of 34 2 of 5 0 of 0
Gian Villante 23 of 55 41% 21 of 53 1 of 1 1 of 1 18 of 49 0 of 1 5 of 5
2 Patrick Cummins 37 of 71 52% 30 of 62 5 of 7 2 of 2 35 of 67 2 of 4 0 of 0
Gian Villante 24 of 72 33% 21 of 68 1 of 2 2 of 2 24 of 72 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Patrick Cummins 32 of 72 44% 25 of 64 1 of 1 6 of 7 24 of 63 8 of 9 0 of 0
Gian Villante 25 of 69 36% 24 of 68 1 of 1 0 of 0 25 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 1
Decision (majority) (29–28, 29–28, 28–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2 · Apr 08, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Patrick Cummins 0 73 of 121 60% 109 of 162 3 of 10 30% 0 0 7:39
Jan Błachowicz 1 53 of 99 53% 68 of 115 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Patrick Cummins 0 16 of 36 44% 23 of 45 1 of 6 16% 0 0 1:28
Jan Błachowicz 1 31 of 51 60% 37 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:40
2 Patrick Cummins 0 21 of 38 55% 27 of 44 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:28
Jan Błachowicz 0 13 of 30 43% 18 of 36 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:28
3 Patrick Cummins 0 36 of 47 76% 59 of 73 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:43
Jan Błachowicz 0 9 of 18 50% 13 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Patrick Cummins 73 of 121 60% 62 of 109 10 of 11 1 of 1 23 of 59 17 of 21 33 of 41
Jan Błachowicz 53 of 99 53% 43 of 88 9 of 10 1 of 1 37 of 77 11 of 15 5 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Patrick Cummins 16 of 36 44% 15 of 34 1 of 2 0 of 0 9 of 25 4 of 7 3 of 4
Jan Błachowicz 31 of 51 60% 26 of 45 5 of 6 0 of 0 18 of 33 10 of 13 3 of 5
2 Patrick Cummins 21 of 38 55% 13 of 30 7 of 7 1 of 1 6 of 19 2 of 2 13 of 17
Jan Błachowicz 13 of 30 43% 11 of 28 2 of 2 0 of 0 12 of 28 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Patrick Cummins 36 of 47 76% 34 of 45 2 of 2 0 of 0 8 of 15 11 of 12 17 of 20
Jan Błachowicz 9 of 18 50% 6 of 15 2 of 2 1 of 1 7 of 16 0 of 0 2 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jan Blachowicz vs. Patrick Cummins

Round 1
Cummins tries to press forward but gets caught by Blachowicz with an uppercut. Cummins hits the deck and tries to climb back to his feet as Blachowicz tees off with punches, looking for the early finish. Cummins stands and gets pushed against the cage, but Blachowicz slips throwing a knee and falls to the ground. Cummins catches the Polish standout in a front headlock, tries to convert it to an anaconda choke but loses Blachowicz's neck as he drops to the ground. Blachowicz separates and lands a heavy body kick, then hits the American with the uppercut again. A looping left hand to the temple from Blachowicz sends Cummins shooting for a takedown. Blachowicz easily shuts down the shot and continues to pick at Cummins with jabs, then lands another uppercut as "Durkin" comes forward. Cummins is on unsteady legs as he's underhooked and pushed against the fence by Blachowicz, who delivers uppercuts to the body in the clinch. Cummins escapes the tie-up and catches Blachowicz stepping forward with a left hand, but Blachowicz walks through it to land another uppercut. Cummins is taking a lot of punishment here, and referee John McCarthy looks close to stopping the bout at one point, but Cummins earns a reprieve with a takedown. Cummins jams Blachowicz's head against the base of the fence to make things uncomfortable, but he loses top position before the end of the round when Blachowicz threatens with an armbar.
Jordan Breen scores the round 10-8 Blachowicz
Brian Knapp scores the round 10-8 Blachowicz
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-8 Blachowicz

Round 2
Blachowicz lands his lead uppercut again in the first 30 seconds of round two, stinging Cummins, who slows the assault with a takedown attempt. Blachowicz stays standing but winds up held against the fence for half a minute or so. When they separate, both 205ers connect with punches before Cummins shoots again and runs Blachowicz to the canvas, unintentionally aided by the referee, who could not get out of Blachowicz's way in time. Cummins stands over Blachowicz, kneels down in guard again and immediately has his right arm attacked by Blachowicz with a kimura. Cummins pulls the arm free and slams Blachowicz with a few heavy punches from the Polish fighter's open guard. Referee McCarthy calls for work, and soon after, Blachowicz kicks Cummins away and escapes to his feet. Now it's Blachowicz shooting for a takedown at the fence, pulling Cummins away from the wall and dumping him to the floor. Cummins is back on his feet within seconds, and suddenly Blachowicz is looking very tired, breathing heavily and letting his hands drop to his waist between punches. Blachowicz leans over with his hands on his knees with 20 seconds on the clock, then shoots for a late takedown and gets sprawled on by Cummins.
Jordan Breen scores the round 10-9 Cummins
Brian Knapp scores the round 10-9 Cummins
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-9 Cummins

Round 3
Cummins moves forward to put Blachowicz's back against the fence but can't hold him there for more than 20 seconds. When they separate, Cummins times Blachowicz's lead uppercut and ducks under to complete an effortless takedown. Blachowicz wraps up Cummins in closed guard, then swings his legs around to try an armbar; Cummins stacks up and frees the limb, then goes back to working for the guard pass. Halfway through the round, Cummins postures up to land an elbow, a few short punches. Cummins denies another armbar, but Blachowicz uses the attempt to roll to his knees and escape to his feet. Blachowicz lands a body kick and charges Cummins, who is ready to tie up Blachowicz in a front headlock. Cummins lands several knees to the leaning Blachowicz's head and receives a warning from the ref to mind the back of the head. Blachowicz drops to guard with just over one minute remaining, and Cummins jams him up against the foot of the fence again. Cummins tries to get busy with ground-and-pound in the final seconds but is tied up by Blachowicz from the bottom.
Jordan Breen scores the round 10-9 Cummins (28-28 Draw)
Brian Knapp scores the round 10-8 Cummins (28-27 Cummins)
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-9 Cummins (28-28 Draw)

The Official Result
Patrick Cummins def. Jan Blachowicz via Majority Decision (29-28, 29-28, 28-28) R3 5:00
TKO (punches) R1 4:52 · UFC 198: Werdum vs. Miocic · May 14, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Antônio Rogério Nogueira 1 30 of 58 51% 36 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Patrick Cummins 0 12 of 36 33% 14 of 38 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Antônio Rogério Nogueira 1 30 of 58 51% 36 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Patrick Cummins 0 12 of 36 33% 14 of 38 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:11
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Antônio Rogério Nogueira 30 of 58 51% 30 of 55 0 of 3 0 of 0 23 of 50 2 of 3 5 of 5
Patrick Cummins 12 of 36 33% 6 of 25 0 of 2 6 of 9 12 of 33 0 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Antônio Rogério Nogueira 30 of 58 51% 30 of 55 0 of 3 0 of 0 23 of 50 2 of 3 5 of 5
Patrick Cummins 12 of 36 33% 6 of 25 0 of 2 6 of 9 12 of 33 0 of 3 0 of 0
LOSS vs Glover Teixeira
TKO (punches) R2 1:12 · UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Henderson 3 · Nov 07, 2015
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Glover Teixeira 0 54 of 102 52% 59 of 107 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:14
Patrick Cummins 0 33 of 90 36% 38 of 95 4 of 6 66% 0 0 1:25
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Glover Teixeira 0 32 of 63 50% 34 of 65 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Patrick Cummins 0 30 of 75 40% 35 of 80 4 of 5 80% 0 0 1:21
2 Glover Teixeira 0 22 of 39 56% 25 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Patrick Cummins 0 3 of 15 20% 3 of 15 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Glover Teixeira 54 of 102 52% 51 of 98 3 of 4 0 of 0 50 of 96 4 of 6 0 of 0
Patrick Cummins 33 of 90 36% 23 of 80 7 of 7 3 of 3 22 of 73 11 of 17 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Glover Teixeira 32 of 63 50% 30 of 60 2 of 3 0 of 0 32 of 63 0 of 0 0 of 0
Patrick Cummins 30 of 75 40% 20 of 65 7 of 7 3 of 3 19 of 62 11 of 13 0 of 0
2 Glover Teixeira 22 of 39 56% 21 of 38 1 of 1 0 of 0 18 of 33 4 of 6 0 of 0
Patrick Cummins 3 of 15 20% 3 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 11 0 of 4 0 of 0
TKO (elbows) R3 0:45 · UFC 190: Rousey vs. Correia · Aug 01, 2015
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Patrick Cummins 0 23 of 45 51% 24 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Rafael Cavalcante 0 49 of 92 53% 102 of 162 8 of 14 57% 0 0 7:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Patrick Cummins 0 11 of 26 42% 11 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rafael Cavalcante 0 20 of 41 48% 39 of 63 5 of 9 55% 0 0 2:54
2 Patrick Cummins 0 11 of 17 64% 12 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Rafael Cavalcante 0 18 of 38 47% 51 of 85 2 of 4 50% 0 0 3:44
3 Patrick Cummins 0 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rafael Cavalcante 0 11 of 13 84% 12 of 14 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:33
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Patrick Cummins 23 of 45 51% 20 of 42 1 of 1 2 of 2 15 of 34 1 of 3 7 of 8
Rafael Cavalcante 49 of 92 53% 37 of 77 6 of 7 6 of 8 18 of 49 7 of 10 24 of 33
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Patrick Cummins 11 of 26 42% 9 of 24 0 of 0 2 of 2 10 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
Rafael Cavalcante 20 of 41 48% 12 of 31 2 of 2 6 of 8 14 of 32 4 of 7 2 of 2
2 Patrick Cummins 11 of 17 64% 10 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 7 0 of 2 7 of 8
Rafael Cavalcante 18 of 38 47% 14 of 33 4 of 5 0 of 0 3 of 15 3 of 3 12 of 20
3 Patrick Cummins 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rafael Cavalcante 11 of 13 84% 11 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 10 of 11
Antônio Carlos Júnior - Fight History
LOSS vs Brad Tavares
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor 2 · Jan 24, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brad Tavares 0 54 of 108 50% 73 of 135 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Antônio Carlos Júnior 0 34 of 103 33% 57 of 135 1 of 12 8% 0 0 6:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brad Tavares 0 9 of 26 34% 12 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Antônio Carlos Júnior 0 9 of 30 30% 21 of 44 0 of 3 0% 0 0 2:47
2 Brad Tavares 0 25 of 49 51% 25 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Antônio Carlos Júnior 0 11 of 34 32% 14 of 40 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:11
3 Brad Tavares 0 20 of 33 60% 36 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Antônio Carlos Júnior 0 14 of 39 35% 22 of 51 0 of 5 0% 0 0 2:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brad Tavares 54 of 108 50% 28 of 76 6 of 8 20 of 24 50 of 102 4 of 6 0 of 0
Antônio Carlos Júnior 34 of 103 33% 24 of 93 2 of 2 8 of 8 33 of 100 1 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brad Tavares 9 of 26 34% 2 of 16 1 of 2 6 of 8 9 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Antônio Carlos Júnior 9 of 30 30% 6 of 27 2 of 2 1 of 1 9 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Brad Tavares 25 of 49 51% 17 of 38 2 of 3 6 of 8 23 of 45 2 of 4 0 of 0
Antônio Carlos Júnior 11 of 34 32% 9 of 32 0 of 0 2 of 2 10 of 31 1 of 3 0 of 0
3 Brad Tavares 20 of 33 60% 9 of 22 3 of 3 8 of 8 18 of 31 2 of 2 0 of 0
Antônio Carlos Júnior 14 of 39 35% 9 of 34 0 of 0 5 of 5 14 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jan 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Antônio Carlos Júnior

Big Brady picks Antônio Carlos Júnior as an underdog, citing his submission threat and Tavares' lack of recent wrestling opposition. He notes Carlos Jr. averages 3.7 takedowns per 15 minutes with 44% accuracy, and Tavares has 77% takedown defense but hasn't faced many grapplers lately. He predicts a submission win, despite Tavares never being submitted officially.

submission
"i'm going to take a shot on the dog here i'm going to say antonio carlos jr submits brad tavares"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Antônio Carlos Júnior

Daniel Levi picks Antônio Carlos Júnior, citing Tavares' recent decline after the Adesanya fight and lack of punching power. He believes Carlos Jr. can use his grappling to control the fight, pinning Tavares against the fence and taking his back. Levi notes Carlos Jr. showed toughness in his last fight and should be the slight favorite.

Carlos Jr. by submission or decision
"i'm going carlos jr i'm not sure if it's going to be a sub or a decision but i think he's the fresher guy with more upside at this point"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Antônio Carlos Júnior

Carlos Júnior is a big, strong grappler who should be able to close the distance and take Tavares down. Tavares has not faced a grappler of this caliber and has shown vulnerability to being controlled. Carlos Júnior has good durability and should be able to grind out a decision, possibly a submission. At plus money, there is value on him.

"I'm going with Antônio Carlos Júnior to win this fight via decision."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2021 (7 days before fight)
Brad Tavares

The MMA Guru picks Brad Tavares to win by third-round TKO. He highlights Tavares's excellent takedown defense and counter-grappling, which he demonstrated against Thales Leites and Christoph Jotko. He expects Tavares to stuff Carlos Jr.'s takedowns, tire him out, and finish him on the feet in the third round. He notes that Carlos Jr. is a grappler who will struggle to keep Tavares down.

Third-round TKO
"brad tavares stuffs all the tape downs lands the shots in the third puts the pressure on eventually finishing antonio carlos jr"
LOSS vs Uriah Hall
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje · Sep 14, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Uriah Hall 1 34 of 79 43% 41 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:25
Antônio Carlos Júnior 0 22 of 69 31% 81 of 148 3 of 8 37% 0 0 10:42
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Uriah Hall 0 12 of 33 36% 12 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Antônio Carlos Júnior 0 13 of 39 33% 31 of 59 2 of 4 50% 0 0 3:08
2 Uriah Hall 1 20 of 37 54% 20 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:25
Antônio Carlos Júnior 0 9 of 22 40% 32 of 45 0 of 3 0% 0 0 3:09
3 Uriah Hall 0 2 of 9 22% 9 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Antônio Carlos Júnior 0 0 of 8 0% 18 of 44 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:25
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Uriah Hall 34 of 79 43% 31 of 75 3 of 4 0 of 0 22 of 61 1 of 1 11 of 17
Antônio Carlos Júnior 22 of 69 31% 16 of 63 5 of 5 1 of 1 18 of 65 2 of 2 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Uriah Hall 12 of 33 36% 11 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0 11 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0
Antônio Carlos Júnior 13 of 39 33% 8 of 34 4 of 4 1 of 1 11 of 37 0 of 0 2 of 2
2 Uriah Hall 20 of 37 54% 18 of 34 2 of 3 0 of 0 9 of 20 0 of 0 11 of 17
Antônio Carlos Júnior 9 of 22 40% 8 of 21 1 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 20 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Uriah Hall 2 of 9 22% 2 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Antônio Carlos Júnior 0 of 8 0% 0 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
LOSS vs Ian Heinisch
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: dos Anjos vs. Lee · May 18, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ian Heinisch 0 15 of 33 45% 25 of 43 4 of 11 36% 0 1 6:23
Antônio Carlos Júnior 0 39 of 67 58% 79 of 115 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:42
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ian Heinisch 0 8 of 12 66% 13 of 17 3 of 6 50% 0 0 4:11
Antônio Carlos Júnior 0 1 of 4 25% 8 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
2 Ian Heinisch 0 3 of 12 25% 5 of 14 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:27
Antônio Carlos Júnior 0 18 of 30 60% 39 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:58
3 Ian Heinisch 0 4 of 9 44% 7 of 12 0 of 2 0% 0 1 0:45
Antônio Carlos Júnior 0 20 of 33 60% 32 of 50 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:39
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ian Heinisch 15 of 33 45% 10 of 27 1 of 2 4 of 4 11 of 28 2 of 2 2 of 3
Antônio Carlos Júnior 39 of 67 58% 26 of 48 2 of 5 11 of 14 13 of 31 5 of 7 21 of 29
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ian Heinisch 8 of 12 66% 5 of 8 0 of 1 3 of 3 4 of 7 2 of 2 2 of 3
Antônio Carlos Júnior 1 of 4 25% 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 3 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Ian Heinisch 3 of 12 25% 2 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Antônio Carlos Júnior 18 of 30 60% 11 of 22 1 of 2 6 of 6 5 of 13 2 of 3 11 of 14
3 Ian Heinisch 4 of 9 44% 3 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Antônio Carlos Júnior 20 of 33 60% 15 of 26 1 of 2 4 of 5 7 of 14 3 of 4 10 of 15
WIN vs Tim Boetsch
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 4:28 · UFC on Fox: Poirier vs. Gaethje · Apr 14, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Antônio Carlos Júnior 0 7 of 18 38% 13 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Tim Boetsch 0 31 of 48 64% 35 of 52 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Antônio Carlos Júnior 0 7 of 18 38% 13 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Tim Boetsch 0 31 of 48 64% 35 of 52 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:32
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Antônio Carlos Júnior 7 of 18 38% 4 of 14 1 of 2 2 of 2 7 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tim Boetsch 31 of 48 64% 23 of 40 4 of 4 4 of 4 20 of 34 2 of 2 9 of 12
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Antônio Carlos Júnior 7 of 18 38% 4 of 14 1 of 2 2 of 2 7 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tim Boetsch 31 of 48 64% 23 of 40 4 of 4 4 of 4 20 of 34 2 of 2 9 of 12
WIN vs Jack Marshman
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 4:30 · UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida · Oct 28, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Antônio Carlos Júnior 0 11 of 27 40% 35 of 51 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:09
Jack Marshman 0 1 of 15 6% 4 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Antônio Carlos Júnior 0 11 of 27 40% 35 of 51 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:09
Jack Marshman 0 1 of 15 6% 4 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Antônio Carlos Júnior 11 of 27 40% 9 of 23 0 of 2 2 of 2 5 of 16 0 of 1 6 of 10
Jack Marshman 1 of 15 6% 0 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 1 1 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Antônio Carlos Júnior 11 of 27 40% 9 of 23 0 of 2 2 of 2 5 of 16 0 of 1 6 of 10
Jack Marshman 1 of 15 6% 0 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 1 1 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
WIN vs Eric Spicely
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 3:49 · UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway · Jun 03, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Antônio Carlos Júnior 0 12 of 23 52% 37 of 56 1 of 1 100% 2 0 4:49
Eric Spicely 0 17 of 26 65% 39 of 49 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Antônio Carlos Júnior 0 10 of 17 58% 28 of 38 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:22
Eric Spicely 0 12 of 17 70% 22 of 28 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:35
2 Antônio Carlos Júnior 0 2 of 6 33% 9 of 18 0 of 0 --- 1 0 3:27
Eric Spicely 0 5 of 9 55% 17 of 21 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Antônio Carlos Júnior 12 of 23 52% 9 of 19 2 of 3 1 of 1 1 of 7 0 of 1 11 of 15
Eric Spicely 17 of 26 65% 17 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 6 0 of 0 16 of 20
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Antônio Carlos Júnior 10 of 17 58% 8 of 14 1 of 2 1 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 1 9 of 13
Eric Spicely 12 of 17 70% 12 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 12 of 15
2 Antônio Carlos Júnior 2 of 6 33% 1 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 2
Eric Spicely 5 of 9 55% 5 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 5
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey · Dec 30, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Antônio Carlos Júnior 0 28 of 75 37% 44 of 94 4 of 13 30% 0 0 5:33
Marvin Vettori 0 29 of 70 41% 99 of 144 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:59
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Antônio Carlos Júnior 0 13 of 33 39% 14 of 34 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:08
Marvin Vettori 0 5 of 21 23% 38 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
2 Antônio Carlos Júnior 0 7 of 20 35% 14 of 29 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:12
Marvin Vettori 0 20 of 38 52% 34 of 53 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:43
3 Antônio Carlos Júnior 0 8 of 22 36% 16 of 31 2 of 6 33% 0 0 3:13
Marvin Vettori 0 4 of 11 36% 27 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Antônio Carlos Júnior 28 of 75 37% 12 of 54 4 of 8 12 of 13 18 of 58 6 of 9 4 of 8
Marvin Vettori 29 of 70 41% 21 of 61 4 of 5 4 of 4 11 of 46 2 of 3 16 of 21
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Antônio Carlos Júnior 13 of 33 39% 6 of 23 2 of 4 5 of 6 11 of 28 2 of 5 0 of 0
Marvin Vettori 5 of 21 23% 3 of 19 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Antônio Carlos Júnior 7 of 20 35% 4 of 15 1 of 3 2 of 2 6 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 2
Marvin Vettori 20 of 38 52% 16 of 34 2 of 2 2 of 2 3 of 15 1 of 2 16 of 21
3 Antônio Carlos Júnior 8 of 22 36% 2 of 16 1 of 1 5 of 5 1 of 12 4 of 4 3 of 6
Marvin Vettori 4 of 11 36% 2 of 8 1 of 2 1 of 1 3 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Antonio Carlos Jr. vs. Marvin Vettori

Round 1
The southpaw Vettori steps forward slinging straight punches, but before he can connect, he's poked in the left eye by the outstretched and open left hand of Carlos. Referee Mark Smith pauses the bout as Vettori steps away, blinking the damaged eye. After a few seconds and a visit with the cageside physician, Vettori says he's ready to continue. Carlos lobs out a leg kick and gets clipped on the jaw by Vettori's counter left hand. Vettori scores with a kick to the body; "Cara de Sapato" tries to shake it off. Seconds later, Carlos catches Vettori with another eye poke. Referee Smith warns the Brazilian, and the fight resumes without much of a pause. The next exchange sees Vettori poke Carlos in the left eye with an outstretched finger. Carlos says he can continue, and the ref issues a stern warning to both men to keep their hands closed. Carlos lands a hard outside leg kick, then one to the body as they hit the midway point of round one. Carlos latches on to a single, drives Vettori against the fence but can't spin him down. Carlos switches to a bodylock and holds Vettori on the fence to deliver some low knees. Vettori lands a few short punches, answered by a harder shot as Carlos releases to slug with a right. Carlos gets a rear waistlock with one minute left, turns the corner and converts it to a takedown. Vettori is back on his feet quickly, now defending a headlock/choke setup from Carlos. The Brazilian nearly drops to guard to try a guillotine, but instead thinks better of it and stands to keep Vettori on the fence for the final moments.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round 10-9 Carlos Jr.
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-9 Carlos Jr.
Mike Sloan scores the round 10-9 Carlos Jr.

Round 2
Carlos gets hold of an early single-leg, pushes Vettori backward and trips him to the ground. Vettori is back on his feet within seconds, now breathing with his mouth open as he swings forward with left hands. Carlos evades and resets to deliver another stiff kick to the body of the Italian. Vettori steps inside to grab a rear waistlock, but Carlos leans his weight against the fence to resist the takedown and stay standing. Vettori releases with three minutes on the clock, and now the middleweights meet back in the center of the cage. Vettori rushes forward with a left hand and Carlos drops levels as he backs up to the fence. Vettori looks for a guillotine, can't get it and instead forces Carlos to the ground. Vettori tries the choke again, but Carlos wags his finger and gives the referee a thumbs-up. Carlos slips out of a brief brabo choke setup and sits up against the fence, trying to slip around and take Vettori's back. Vettori flattens him out and begins scoring with left-handed ground-and-pound. Vettori stands and eats an upkick from Carlos, then kneels in the Brazilian's guard for a few seconds. Vettori stands again with 20 seconds left and spends the last moments kicking at Carlos' legs.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round 10-9 Vettori
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-9 Vettori
Mike Sloan scores the round 10-9 Vettori

Round 3
Vettori lands a leg kick, one to the body, then rushes Carlos against the fence with a left hand. Carlos immediately spins Vettori against the cage with a bodylock, works for 30 seconds and then trips him to the floor. Carlos may be looking for an arm-triangle choke as he puts his weight on Vettori to flatten him out. Vettori frees his head and arm, rolls to his knees and tries to stand; Carlos manages to keep him down at first, but Vettori eventually gets to his feet. Carlos holds him on the cage, delivering knees to Vettori's legs at the midway point of the round. Vettori separates with two minutes left, and now the middleweights are back to striking in the center of the cage. Carlos' hands are low, inviting Vettori to come forward, but Vettori slips on a kick and has to scramble up before the Brazilian can capitalize. Carlos shoots for a single-leg on the fence with one minute left; he can't take down Vettori this time and has to settle for clinch strikes. After 20 seconds of work, Carlos completes the takedown and then spins to take the kneeling Vettori's back. Vettori blocks the back-take but absorbs a few left hands to the head, now a knee to the body. Carlos finishes the fight attempting a guillotine, and this one will go to the judges.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round 10-9 Carlos Jr. (29-28 Carlos Jr.)
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-9 Carlos Jr. (29-28 Carlos Jr.)
Mike Sloan scores the round 10-9 Carlos Jr. (29-28 Carlos Jr.)

The Official Result
Antonio Carlos Jr. def. Marvin Vettori via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) R3 5:00
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 4:46 · UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Johnson · Sep 17, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Antônio Carlos Júnior 0 32 of 60 53% 94 of 142 7 of 14 50% 1 1 10:13
Leonardo Augusto Guimarães 0 6 of 17 35% 15 of 26 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Antônio Carlos Júnior 0 8 of 33 24% 9 of 34 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:21
Leonardo Augusto Guimarães 0 3 of 9 33% 7 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Antônio Carlos Júnior 0 17 of 19 89% 74 of 92 1 of 2 50% 0 1 4:33
Leonardo Augusto Guimarães 0 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:11
3 Antônio Carlos Júnior 0 7 of 8 87% 11 of 16 4 of 7 57% 1 0 4:19
Leonardo Augusto Guimarães 0 2 of 6 33% 7 of 11 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Antônio Carlos Júnior 32 of 60 53% 24 of 47 6 of 11 2 of 2 13 of 38 1 of 2 18 of 20
Leonardo Augusto Guimarães 6 of 17 35% 1 of 9 5 of 8 0 of 0 4 of 15 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Antônio Carlos Júnior 8 of 33 24% 7 of 27 0 of 5 1 of 1 6 of 31 0 of 0 2 of 2
Leonardo Augusto Guimarães 3 of 9 33% 1 of 4 2 of 5 0 of 0 3 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Antônio Carlos Júnior 17 of 19 89% 11 of 13 6 of 6 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 15 of 17
Leonardo Augusto Guimarães 1 of 2 50% 0 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Antônio Carlos Júnior 7 of 8 87% 6 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 1 6 of 6 0 of 1 1 of 1
Leonardo Augusto Guimarães 2 of 6 33% 0 of 4 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0