UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor 2

Big Brady picks Conor McGregor to win by first-round knockout, similar to their first fight. He notes McGregor's power and accuracy as key advantages, and believes Poirier's cardio won't be a factor because the fight won't go deep. He acknowledges Poirier could be a live dog but ultimately sides with McGregor's striking superiority.

Daniel Levi picks Conor McGregor to win early, citing McGregor's devastating power and ability to finish fights in the first round. He acknowledges Poirier's improved chin at lightweight and his path to victory if he survives the early storm, but believes McGregor's power is too much. Levi expresses personal rooting interest for Poirier but makes a logical pick for McGregor.

McGregor has the precision and power to replicate his first-round knockout from their first fight. Poirier is durable but has been knocked down by lesser power. McGregor's takedown defense is solid, and he should be able to keep the fight on the feet. Poirier's cardio advantage may not matter if McGregor lands early. I see McGregor winning by first-round KO.

The MMA Guru believes Conor McGregor's improved boxing, especially his left hand, will be too much for Dustin Poirier. He notes that Poirier has not thrown many kicks since his hip surgery and will rely on boxing, which plays into McGregor's strengths. He predicts McGregor will land a big left hand in the first round, knocking Poirier out cold around the four-minute mark, similar to the Michael Johnson KO. He dismisses the idea of a 60-second KO but is confident McGregor wins.

Big Brady leans towards Dan Hooker, citing Hooker's reach advantage (75.5 inches vs 69 inches), durability, and power. He thinks Hooker's takedown defense (79%) will keep the fight standing, and that Chandler's history of being knocked out is a concern. He predicts Hooker wins by knockout.

Daniel Levi picks Michael Chandler as the underdog, citing Chandler's D1 wrestling, power, and fresher mindset. He notes Hooker's recent damage and potential overrated status, but acknowledges Hooker's striking weapons like the knee up the middle and calf kicks. Levi believes Chandler can land a big right hand or use wrestling to control the fight, though he admits it's a close matchup.

Hooker has a huge reach and height advantage, and he is excellent at using calf kicks to neutralize opponents. Chandler has a suspect chin and struggles with distance. Hooker's takedown defense has been excellent since moving to 155, stuffing 19 of 21 attempts. Chandler will have difficulty closing the distance and may get countered. I expect Hooker to win by knockout, possibly with a left hook or calf kick setup.

The MMA Guru picks Dan Hooker to win by KO in the first round, citing Hooker's calf kicks and reach advantage. He believes Chandler will struggle to get inside due to Hooker's length and will be vulnerable to a knee up the middle. He notes Chandler's history of leg issues (Brent Primus fight) and thinks Hooker's early calf kicks will slow Chandler's explosiveness. He also mentions Hooker's toughness and ability to survive grappling exchanges.

Big Brady picks Joanne Wood (Calderwood) by decision, citing her high output (6.17 significant strikes per minute) and takedown ability. He is hesitant because Wood lost her last fight via submission, and he is not betting on her. He expects a close decision and thinks the fight likely goes to decision.

Daniel Levi picks Jessica Eye, citing her superior resume with wins over top competition like Katlyn Chookagian and Viviane Araujo. He criticizes Joanne Wood for folding in big fights and being mentally fragile. Levi believes Eye's athleticism and health improvements will lead to a win, possibly by decision.

This is a close fight between two mid-tier flyweights. Eye has good boxing and combinations, and she is not afraid to trade. Wood has volume but lacks power. Eye's durability and willingness to exchange should give her an edge. I think Eye lands the more significant strikes and wins a close decision. At plus money, there is value.

The MMA Guru picks Joanne Wood (Calderwood) to win a close decision, expecting a stand-up fight. He believes Wood's kicking game will be the difference against Jessica Eye's boxing-oriented style. He notes that both fighters are past their prime but gives Wood the edge due to her variety of kicks (leg kicks, knees, head kicks). He does not see either fighter going to the ground and predicts Wood edges every round.

Big Brady picks Makhmud Muradov, citing his striking advantage and Sanchez's poor striking defense (50%). He notes Muradov's 100% takedown defense (small sample) and Sanchez's cardio issues. He predicts Muradov wins by knockout, as Sanchez has been knocked out three times. He likes the line at -135 but hasn't bet yet.

Daniel Levi picks Makhmud Muradov, praising his boxing, footwork, and takedown defense. He notes Muradov's 13-fight win streak and ability to find openings, especially to the body. Levi respects Sanchez's improvements but believes Muradov's striking difference is too big, predicting a knockout or decision win.

Muradov is more technical on the feet, has good counter striking, and has solid takedown defense with underhooks. Sanchez showed improved striking in his last fight, but that was only one fight and against a lower-level opponent. Sanchez has cardio issues and may gas if he can't get an early finish. Muradov is experienced and should be able to pick Sanchez apart over 15 minutes. I like Muradov at -135, as the market may be skewed by Sanchez's flashy win.

The MMA Guru picks Makhmud Muradov to win by unanimous decision, citing his reach, size, youth, and volume striking. He notes that Andrew Sanchez struggles against higher-level strikers and has been KO'd before. He expects Muradov to outland Sanchez for three rounds, similar to how Marvin Vettori overwhelmed Sanchez with volume. He does not see a finish but thinks Muradov will control the fight on the feet.

Big Brady picks Amanda Ribas, citing her wrestling advantage and Rodriguez's poor takedown defense (61%). He notes Ribas averages 2.28 takedowns per 15 minutes with 54% accuracy. He thinks Ribas will take Rodriguez down and control her, possibly finding a submission. He is leaving Ribas out of parlays due to her being knocked out before.

Daniel Levi picks Amanda Ribas, emphasizing her superior grappling and takedown ability. He criticizes Marina Rodriguez for not addressing her wrestling deficiencies, noting she has been taken down repeatedly. Levi believes Ribas will take Rodriguez down and dominate on the mat, possibly by submission.

Rodriguez is a much better striker with great Muay Thai, leg kicks, and clinch work. Ribas's takedowns come from the clinch, where Rodriguez is dangerous with knees and elbows. Ribas has not faced a striker of this caliber and may struggle to get the fight to the ground. Rodriguez's takedown defense is a concern, but she is active off her back. I believe the odds should be much closer, and at +282 there is great value. I also like Rodriguez by TKO as a prop.

The MMA Guru picks Amanda Ribas to win by unanimous decision, expecting a stand-up fight where Ribas out-strikes Rodriguez. He acknowledges Rodriguez's good takedown defense but believes Ribas won't need takedowns and will have the advantage on the feet. He notes that Rodriguez is slowing down at 33 and had a draw with Cynthia Calvillo where she faded. He calls the odds 'crazy' but still picks Ribas.

Big Brady picks Arman Tsarukyan (likely referring to Ottman Azaitar, but the matchup is Tsarukyan vs Frevola; he mentions 'zytar' which is likely a mispronunciation of Tsarukyan). He notes Tsarukyan's power and Frevola's recklessness. He predicts a first-round knockout, as Frevola engages in brawls and has been knocked out before. He acknowledges Tsarukyan's takedown defense is a question mark but believes his power will prevail.

Daniel Levi picks Arman Tsarukyan, calling him a class above Frevola in wrestling, striking, and durability. He notes Tsarukyan's impressive improvements and believes he will win fairly easily. Levi respects Frevola's toughness but sees Tsarukyan as a future top-15 fighter.

Frevola has good takedown defense and cardio, and he should be able to keep the fight on the feet. Tsarukyan's takedown efficiency has been poor (18% against Olivier Aubin-Mercier), and Frevola's low stance helps him stuff takedowns. Frevola's striking, especially his rear uppercut, could be a factor. I think Frevola wins by decision, and at plus money he is a steal.

The MMA Guru picks Arman Tsarukyan (misspelled as 'Ottoman Zyatar') to win by first-round TKO. He criticizes Matt Frevola's tendency to stick his chin out and brawl, which led to a KO loss against Marco Polo Reyes. He believes Tsarukyan's hand speed and power will catch Frevola early. He also notes Frevola has taken significant damage in his career, making him more vulnerable.

Big Brady picks Antônio Carlos Júnior as an underdog, citing his submission threat and Tavares' lack of recent wrestling opposition. He notes Carlos Jr. averages 3.7 takedowns per 15 minutes with 44% accuracy, and Tavares has 77% takedown defense but hasn't faced many grapplers lately. He predicts a submission win, despite Tavares never being submitted officially.

Daniel Levi picks Antônio Carlos Júnior, citing Tavares' recent decline after the Adesanya fight and lack of punching power. He believes Carlos Jr. can use his grappling to control the fight, pinning Tavares against the fence and taking his back. Levi notes Carlos Jr. showed toughness in his last fight and should be the slight favorite.

Carlos Júnior is a big, strong grappler who should be able to close the distance and take Tavares down. Tavares has not faced a grappler of this caliber and has shown vulnerability to being controlled. Carlos Júnior has good durability and should be able to grind out a decision, possibly a submission. At plus money, there is value on him.

The MMA Guru picks Brad Tavares to win by third-round TKO. He highlights Tavares's excellent takedown defense and counter-grappling, which he demonstrated against Thales Leites and Christoph Jotko. He expects Tavares to stuff Carlos Jr.'s takedowns, tire him out, and finish him on the feet in the third round. He notes that Carlos Jr. is a grappler who will struggle to keep Tavares down.

Big Brady picks Sara McMann by decision, citing her wrestling advantage and Peña's poor takedown defense (28%). He notes McMann lands 4.5 takedowns per 15 minutes with 60% accuracy. He expects McMann to control Peña on the ground for at least two rounds. He is not confident enough to bet but leans towards McMann.

Daniel Levi picks Sara McMann, highlighting her superior wrestling and power. He criticizes Julianna Peña's poor takedown defense (28%) and lack of submissions. Levi believes McMann can dominate with top control and avoid Peña's comeback attempts, as long as she stays focused for 15 minutes.

McMann is the better wrestler and should be able to get takedowns and control Peña on the ground. Peña has poor takedown defense and her jiu-jitsu off her back is not great. However, McMann is 40 years old and has cardio issues, which is a concern. I think McMann grinds out a decision, but I'm not confident enough to bet on her.

The MMA Guru picks Sara McMann to win by controlling Peña on the ground with top control. He criticizes Peña's submission game, noting she hasn't submitted anyone of note and has been submitted herself. He believes McMann's wrestling and top control will be effective, especially since women's fights are not stood up quickly. He predicts a 30-27 decision via ground control.

Big Brady picks Khalil Rountree Jr. confidently, citing Prachnio's poor striking defense and tendency to get knocked out in the first round (three times in UFC). He notes Rountree has finished five of eight wins in the first round. He predicts a first-round knockout and likes the Rountree round one prop at +175.

Daniel Levi picks Khalil Rountree Jr. by first-round knockout, noting Prachnio has been knocked out in the first round in all three UFC fights. He believes Rountree's speed and striking improvements in Thailand will be too much for Prachnio, who is too slow and doesn't belong in the UFC.

Both fighters have sketchy chins and a high percentage of their fights ending under 1.5 rounds. Prachnio has diminishing durability and has been knocked out in his last three fights. Rountree has power and should be able to land a counter or follow-up shots. I expect a knockout from Rountree, likely in the first round. The under 1.5 rounds is a solid bet given the statistics and the matchup.

The MMA Guru picks Khalil Rountree Jr. to win by first-round TKO, calling Marcin Prachnio overmatched and past his prime. He notes Prachnio was brutally KO'd by Mike Rodriguez in his last fight and is taking a quick turnaround. He believes Rountree's striking will be too much, and he predicts a brutal finish via overhand right or similar shot. He expresses hope Rountree doesn't retire.

Big Brady picks Movsar Evloev by decision, citing his striking and wrestling advantages. He notes Evloev is 13-0 and younger, while Lentz has eye problems and is coming off a layoff. He warns about Lentz's guillotine but believes Evloev can keep the fight standing or control on the ground. He thinks Evloev is a fine parlay piece at -450.

Daniel Levi picks Movsar Evloev, calling him a top prospect with elite scrambling and improving boxing. He notes Evloev's impressive performance against Mike Grundy, where he survived a deep choke and dominated. Levi believes Evloev is better in every category and will win by decision, possibly 30-26 or 30-27.

Evloev is a huge prospect with championship potential, and he has been improving on a fight-to-fight basis. He has a solid striking game, good grappling, and has shown he can get back to his feet if taken down. Lentz is durable and has underrated power, but he is outmatched in terms of trajectory and skill. Evloev should be able to grind out a decision, though he may have trouble finishing Lentz. I'm a huge Evloev fan and think he wins this fight.

The MMA Guru picks Movsar Evloev to win by 30-27 unanimous decision. He praises Evloev's takedown defense and reach, which will neutralize Nik Lentz's wrestling. He notes that Lentz is tough but will be out-struck on the feet. He does not see a finish due to Lentz's durability. He expects Evloev to keep the fight standing and pick Lentz apart for three rounds.

Big Brady picks Amir Albazi as an underdog, citing his decent striking and good ground game. He notes Albazi submitted Malcolm Gordon in his UFC debut. He expects a close fight and thinks Albazi will edge it out with takedowns. He is hesitant because Zhumagulov's fights are often close and he could have won his last fight.

Daniel Levi picks Amir Albazi, citing his aggression and forward pressure. He notes Zhumagulov gets bullied and has questionable wins. Levi believes Albazi is the more talented fighter and will win by being more aggressive, though he acknowledges it could be a toss-up.

Albazi is the younger, improving fighter with a strong grappling game. He has shown he can get the fight to the ground and has good jiu-jitsu, as seen in his submission win over Malcolm Gordon. Zhumagulov is primarily a striker who doesn't have great takedown defense and tends to lose early rounds. In a three-round fight, Albazi only needs to win the first two rounds by securing takedowns and controlling top position. I expect Albazi to win via decision.

The MMA Guru picks Amir Albazi to win by submission in the first round, but later also mentions a close decision. He notes Albazi is younger, stronger, and more explosive, while Zhumagulov is slowing down. He references Albazi's impressive UFC debut submission and his grappling skills. He believes Zhumagulov's grinding style is not respected by judges, and Albazi's power and takedowns will be key. He also mentions betting on Albazi as an underdog.