Career Averages - Jon Jones
Career Averages - Maurício Rua
Jon Jones - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Jones | 1 | 96 of 119 | 80% | 104 of 128 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:51 |
| Stipe Miocic | 0 | 37 of 89 | 41% | 42 of 94 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jon Jones | 0 | 42 of 48 | 87% | 49 of 56 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:37 |
| Stipe Miocic | 0 | 6 of 13 | 46% | 11 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jon Jones | 0 | 20 of 28 | 71% | 20 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Stipe Miocic | 0 | 16 of 37 | 43% | 16 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jon Jones | 1 | 34 of 43 | 79% | 35 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Stipe Miocic | 0 | 15 of 39 | 38% | 15 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Jones | 96 of 119 | 80% | 70 of 91 | 16 of 18 | 10 of 10 | 54 of 70 | 2 of 3 | 40 of 46 |
| Stipe Miocic | 37 of 89 | 41% | 24 of 75 | 7 of 8 | 6 of 6 | 32 of 83 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jon Jones | 42 of 48 | 87% | 36 of 42 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 37 of 42 |
| Stipe Miocic | 6 of 13 | 46% | 3 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Jon Jones | 20 of 28 | 71% | 9 of 16 | 7 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 19 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Stipe Miocic | 16 of 37 | 43% | 9 of 29 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jon Jones | 34 of 43 | 79% | 25 of 33 | 5 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 30 of 37 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 4 |
| Stipe Miocic | 15 of 39 | 38% | 12 of 36 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 34 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is very confident in Jon Jones, citing his all-around greatness, youth, and activity compared to Stipe Miocic, who is a full-time fireman on a four-year layoff. He expects Jones to take Miocic down early and dominate. He thinks Jones should be -1500 and will win easily.
Big Brady picks Jon Jones but expects a slow, disappointing fight. He notes that Stipe Miocic is old and washed, having looked slow against Francis Ngannou four years ago, but he doesn't think Jones will finish him early. He cites Jones' recent lackluster performances against Dominick Reyes and Thiago Santos. He predicts a decision win for Jones and likes the over on 40.5 significant strikes for Jones on PrizePicks.
Cody picks Jon Jones, citing Jones' legendary durability and distance management. He notes Stipe is 43, hasn't fought in 3.5 years, and looked slow against Ngannou. Cody expects Jones to win a 49-46 decision or possibly get a late submission, but sees the fight going the distance. He mentions the over 2.5 rounds as a potential prop.
Connor also picks Jones, emphasizing that Stipe is old and likely shot, and that Jones's wrestling and size will be too much. He notes that Stipe's last performance against Ngannou was poor and he looked aimless. Connor expects Jones to take Stipe down and submit him, possibly after a tentative first round.
Daniel Vreeland picks Jon Jones to win, citing Jones' superior MMA wrestling, takedown defense (95%), reach advantage, and younger age. He believes Jones will use oblique kicks to immobilize Stipe, mix in takedowns, and dictate the pace. He acknowledges Stipe's boxing and wrestling credentials but thinks Jones' overall MMA game is superior. He notes that Stipe hasn't fought since 2021 and may have declined.
Vreeland picks Jones emphatically, calling it tragic that this fight is happening. He notes Stipe hasn't fought anyone well-rounded since 2018, is 42, semi-retired, and was knocked out badly by Ngannou. Vreeland believes Jones will win by knockout, possibly with a 12-to-6 elbow, and that Stipe will look old when he gets knocked out.
Fox picks Jones, agreeing that Stipe has no chance. He notes Jones is younger, has a reach advantage, and is the better fighter everywhere. Fox expects Jones to win by knockout, possibly with a 12-to-6 elbow, and thinks Stipe's chin is compromised after the Ngannou KO.
Lucrative James picks Jon Jones to win, citing Stipe Miocic's age (42) and four-year layoff as major concerns. He believes Stipe will look stiff and has lost athleticism, while Jones has an iron chin, superior striking at all ranges, and much better MMA wrestling and grappling. He predicts Jones will win inside the distance, likely within the first two rounds, and notes that Jones can win however he wants if Stipe is a shell of his former self.
The host expects Jones to continue his dominant ways as he did against Gane, getting to his grappling and keeping Miocic on his back. He mentions Jones might use 12-to-6 elbows but ultimately finds the neck and gets a submission victory.
Paul picks Jon Jones, calling it a freak show fight. He argues Jones has fought weak competition and had close fights with lesser opponents, but Stipe is faded and hasn't fought in three years. Paul expects Jones to win by decision, possibly 49-46, and likes the over 2.5 rounds. He notes Jones' distance management and Stipe's age and inactivity.
The MMA Guru picks Jon Jones, expecting a finish in the first or second round. He describes Jones's oblique kicks and clinch work breaking down the 42-year-old Miocic. He predicts a guillotine choke after a takedown, noting Stipe's tendency to scramble into submissions.
Zane picks Jones, noting that Stipe is old and inactive, having not fought in over three years and showing no interest in fighting. He expects a slog for a round or two, then Jones will take Stipe down and finish him via submission or ground-and-pound. Zane mentions Jones's wrestling and size advantage, and that Stipe's chin and durability are questionable at this stage.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Jones | 0 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 8 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:57 |
| Ciryl Gane | 0 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jon Jones | 0 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 8 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:57 |
| Ciryl Gane | 0 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Jones | 5 of 10 | 50% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ciryl Gane | 6 of 8 | 75% | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jon Jones | 5 of 10 | 50% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ciryl Gane | 6 of 8 | 75% | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Jones (-155), Gane (+135)
Round 1
This one is for all the marbles. The heavyweight strap is officially on the line with the relinquishment of Francis Ngannou’s heavyweight crown and his subsequent release. The challengers for the vacant strap will be former light heavyweight king Jones (26-1, 1 NC; 20-1, 1 NC UFC), who is taking his first trip up to this division and weighed 248 pounds, against ex-interim champ Gane (11-1, 8-1 UFC). Surprising many, Gane checked in a half pound lighter than Jones. These big men have 25 minutes to work and establish themselves, and referee Marc Goddard will receive the final assignment of the night. After a touch of gloves and Gane patting Jones’ chest, it’s on. Jones comes out of his corner like usual, climbing upright, and the two throw at one another immediately. Jones fires a punch up top, and Gane responds with a low kick that slams into Jones’ cup and causes a pause in the first 10 seconds of the bout. Jones takes 30 seconds to clear it out, and they get back to action. Jones takes a low kick to stick the Frenchman with a right hand, and he walks Gane down firing at him. Jones sweeps low with a kick, and Gane replies with a similar blow. Jones walks through a jab and marches Gane down, pressuring the Frenchman and no-selling any strikes that land on him. Jones swings with a big body shot that misses the mark, and when Gane fires off a big right hand, Jones ducks under and trips Gane out to drop him to his knees and down. Gane fights back up to his knees, and Jones slips a hook in around the side while Gane works to his feet. Jones pulls Gane down, and he sits on Gane’s knees and suddenly grips with a guillotine choke that is crushing around Gane’s noggin. Jones lets go and resets his grip to slip his forearm under the chin, and he presses his full body weight on the submission to completely fasten the guillotine. Gane is shocked, his eyes wide open, and he frantically taps out before he goes out. Jones has done it! He is a two-division UFC champion, and he made it look easy against a phenomenal opponent. His status as one of the greatest if not the greatest of all time is fully cemented with this victory, which clocked in around two minutes as his quickest since he smashed Vladimir Matyushenko in 2010. After thanking his family and training partners, Jones has one name in mind: Stipe Miocic, for International Fight Week in July. We will absolutely be here should that materialize, and we hope you are too. What a night.
The Official Result
Jon Jones def. Ciryl Gane R1 2:04 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
Angelo leans towards Ciryl Gane due to Jon Jones' three-year layoff, weight gain, and poor performance in his last fight. He notes that Gane is a technical striker with great footwork and that Jones struggled with wrestling against Dominick Reyes. Angelo is not betting on this fight.
Big Brady picks Jon Jones but is hesitant due to many red flags: a three-year layoff, lackluster recent performances, and moving up to heavyweight. He notes Gane's takedown defense was exposed by Ngannou, and Jones is a great wrestler. He predicts a decision win for Jones, but advises against betting on the fight due to uncertainty.
Cody is very reluctant to take Jones at -160 given the three-year layoff, recent disinterested performances, and move up to heavyweight. He sees Gane as a legitimate heavyweight who fought Francis Ngannou closely, but worries about Gane's wrestling after Ngannou took him down. He ultimately takes the plus money on Gane but will wait for weigh-ins to see Jones's physique.
Connor picks Jones but with significant hesitation. He believes Jones's forward pressure and consistent use of a few tools (lead hook, body kick, side kick) over five rounds will be enough to edge out Gane, despite Jones's decline in activity and wrestling. He expects a close, boring fight where Jones may get hurt but ultimately wins a decision or via a takedown from a Gane error. He notes Gane's poor defensive footwork and tendency to fall apart when pressured, but acknowledges Jones's own defensive flaws and the risk of Gane's jab and kicks.
Jacob is confident in Ciryl Gane, stating that on the feet, Gane will embarrass Jones with his footwork and speed. He believes Jones will struggle to get takedowns because Gane will be ready for them. Jacob thinks Gane will pick Jones apart and win.
Jones is a dominant wrestler with unorthodox striking and a championship mindset. Gane is a slick striker but has shown vulnerability to wrestling, as seen against Francis Ngannou. Jones will drag the fight to the ground and use his top pressure and ground and pound to win. The weight gain shouldn't be detrimental.
Paul picks Jon Jones but says it's a stay away from a betting perspective. He believes Jones's wrestling will be the difference, as Gane was taken down by Ngannou. However, he acknowledges the many question marks around Jones and cannot bet him at -170. He thinks Jones will win but won't put money on it.
The MMA Guru picks Ciryl Gane to upset Jon Jones, citing Jones' long layoff (over 3 years) and recent close fights. He believes Gane's range, leg kicks, and patience will trouble Jones, and that Jones' takedowns won't be as effective at heavyweight. He predicts a decision win for Gane.
Zane favors Gane, assuming the fight becomes a slow-paced kickboxing match where Gane's consistency, jab, and kicking variety give him the edge. He doubts Jones's wrestling will be effective due to poor entries and a clench that has deteriorated. He notes Gane's defensive flaws and potential unforced errors (like a bad takedown attempt) could cost him, but overall sees Gane as the more reliable striker at range.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Jones | 0 | 104 of 166 | 62% | 107 of 170 | 2 of 9 | 22% | 0 | 0 | 1:41 |
| Dominick Reyes | 0 | 116 of 259 | 44% | 119 of 263 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jon Jones | 0 | 17 of 27 | 62% | 17 of 27 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dominick Reyes | 0 | 23 of 59 | 38% | 23 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jon Jones | 0 | 22 of 37 | 59% | 22 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dominick Reyes | 0 | 33 of 68 | 48% | 33 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jon Jones | 0 | 19 of 34 | 55% | 20 of 35 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Dominick Reyes | 0 | 26 of 45 | 57% | 27 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Jon Jones | 0 | 20 of 34 | 58% | 20 of 35 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:56 |
| Dominick Reyes | 0 | 13 of 41 | 31% | 14 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Jon Jones | 0 | 26 of 34 | 76% | 28 of 36 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
| Dominick Reyes | 0 | 21 of 46 | 45% | 22 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Jones | 104 of 166 | 62% | 31 of 74 | 30 of 39 | 43 of 53 | 101 of 161 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Dominick Reyes | 116 of 259 | 44% | 41 of 169 | 48 of 55 | 27 of 35 | 109 of 252 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jon Jones | 17 of 27 | 62% | 1 of 5 | 6 of 8 | 10 of 14 | 17 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Dominick Reyes | 23 of 59 | 38% | 7 of 33 | 11 of 14 | 5 of 12 | 20 of 56 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jon Jones | 22 of 37 | 59% | 8 of 19 | 5 of 7 | 9 of 11 | 22 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dominick Reyes | 33 of 68 | 48% | 11 of 46 | 12 of 12 | 10 of 10 | 33 of 68 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jon Jones | 19 of 34 | 55% | 7 of 18 | 5 of 7 | 7 of 9 | 19 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dominick Reyes | 26 of 45 | 57% | 7 of 25 | 13 of 14 | 6 of 6 | 23 of 42 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Jon Jones | 20 of 34 | 58% | 8 of 19 | 6 of 8 | 6 of 7 | 17 of 30 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Dominick Reyes | 13 of 41 | 31% | 7 of 32 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Jon Jones | 26 of 34 | 76% | 7 of 13 | 8 of 9 | 11 of 12 | 26 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dominick Reyes | 21 of 46 | 45% | 9 of 33 | 8 of 8 | 4 of 5 | 21 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Daniel Levi picks Jon Jones, citing his unparalleled skill set, fight IQ, and durability. He notes that Jones has a 7-inch reach advantage and gets better as fights go on, while Reyes may fade after the first round. He expects Jones to pick Reyes apart and possibly get a ground-and-pound finish.
The host picks Jon Jones, likely by decision or late finish, citing his reach, kicks, wrestling, and experience. He believes Jones will establish his range and wear down Reyes, who has not faced anyone of Jones' caliber. He plans to parlay Jones with Andrea Lee as his lock of the night play.
The MMA Guru picks Jon Jones to win, noting that Jones has a massive reach advantage and is more focused after time off. He warns not to sleep on Reyes but believes Jones will win. He also suggests betting small on Reyes as an underdog parlay.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Jones | 0 | 59 of 90 | 65% | 59 of 90 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 43 of 166 | 25% | 43 of 166 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jon Jones | 0 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 7 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 11 of 26 | 42% | 11 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jon Jones | 0 | 11 of 17 | 64% | 11 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 7 of 42 | 16% | 7 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jon Jones | 0 | 14 of 19 | 73% | 14 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 6 of 33 | 18% | 6 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Jon Jones | 0 | 11 of 17 | 64% | 11 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 8 of 28 | 28% | 8 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Jon Jones | 0 | 16 of 21 | 76% | 16 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 11 of 37 | 29% | 11 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Jones | 59 of 90 | 65% | 11 of 32 | 16 of 19 | 32 of 39 | 55 of 84 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Thiago Santos | 43 of 166 | 25% | 9 of 92 | 7 of 21 | 27 of 53 | 42 of 159 | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jon Jones | 7 of 16 | 43% | 0 of 4 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 7 | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Thiago Santos | 11 of 26 | 42% | 3 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 13 | 11 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jon Jones | 11 of 17 | 64% | 2 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 5 of 6 | 10 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Thiago Santos | 7 of 42 | 16% | 1 of 25 | 2 of 6 | 4 of 11 | 6 of 38 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jon Jones | 14 of 19 | 73% | 4 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 6 of 8 | 11 of 15 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Thiago Santos | 6 of 33 | 18% | 1 of 17 | 1 of 6 | 4 of 10 | 6 of 30 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Jon Jones | 11 of 17 | 64% | 2 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 7 of 7 | 11 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Thiago Santos | 8 of 28 | 28% | 0 of 13 | 1 of 5 | 7 of 10 | 8 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Jon Jones | 16 of 21 | 76% | 3 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 11 | 16 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Thiago Santos | 11 of 37 | 29% | 4 of 25 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 9 | 11 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Jones | 0 | 125 of 167 | 74% | 238 of 287 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 12:58 |
| Anthony Smith | 0 | 36 of 66 | 54% | 45 of 75 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jon Jones | 0 | 13 of 25 | 52% | 17 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:40 |
| Anthony Smith | 0 | 12 of 21 | 57% | 13 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jon Jones | 0 | 30 of 44 | 68% | 35 of 49 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
| Anthony Smith | 0 | 14 of 24 | 58% | 14 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jon Jones | 0 | 27 of 30 | 90% | 57 of 60 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:21 |
| Anthony Smith | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Jon Jones | 0 | 35 of 39 | 89% | 51 of 58 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:38 |
| Anthony Smith | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Jon Jones | 0 | 20 of 29 | 68% | 78 of 91 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:34 |
| Anthony Smith | 0 | 7 of 17 | 41% | 11 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Jones | 125 of 167 | 74% | 45 of 80 | 35 of 40 | 45 of 47 | 64 of 102 | 31 of 34 | 30 of 31 |
| Anthony Smith | 36 of 66 | 54% | 15 of 40 | 9 of 14 | 12 of 12 | 31 of 59 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jon Jones | 13 of 25 | 52% | 1 of 11 | 5 of 7 | 7 of 7 | 12 of 22 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Anthony Smith | 12 of 21 | 57% | 1 of 9 | 3 of 4 | 8 of 8 | 10 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jon Jones | 30 of 44 | 68% | 6 of 17 | 8 of 10 | 16 of 17 | 28 of 42 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Anthony Smith | 14 of 24 | 58% | 8 of 15 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jon Jones | 27 of 30 | 90% | 4 of 6 | 10 of 11 | 13 of 13 | 4 of 6 | 17 of 18 | 6 of 6 |
| Anthony Smith | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Jon Jones | 35 of 39 | 89% | 25 of 29 | 9 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 24 of 25 |
| Anthony Smith | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Jon Jones | 20 of 29 | 68% | 9 of 17 | 3 of 3 | 8 of 9 | 10 of 19 | 10 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Anthony Smith | 7 of 17 | 41% | 6 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 14 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Jones | 0 | 59 of 102 | 57% | 63 of 106 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 1:28 |
| Alexander Gustafsson | 0 | 22 of 83 | 26% | 24 of 85 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jon Jones | 0 | 19 of 36 | 52% | 20 of 37 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alexander Gustafsson | 0 | 13 of 32 | 40% | 14 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jon Jones | 0 | 27 of 51 | 52% | 27 of 51 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alexander Gustafsson | 0 | 8 of 48 | 16% | 8 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jon Jones | 0 | 13 of 15 | 86% | 16 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:28 |
| Alexander Gustafsson | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Jones | 59 of 102 | 57% | 26 of 52 | 15 of 22 | 18 of 28 | 40 of 81 | 7 of 8 | 12 of 13 |
| Alexander Gustafsson | 22 of 83 | 26% | 12 of 62 | 4 of 11 | 6 of 10 | 19 of 80 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jon Jones | 19 of 36 | 52% | 5 of 17 | 7 of 8 | 7 of 11 | 15 of 31 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Gustafsson | 13 of 32 | 40% | 4 of 18 | 4 of 6 | 5 of 8 | 10 of 29 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jon Jones | 27 of 51 | 52% | 8 of 20 | 8 of 14 | 11 of 17 | 24 of 48 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Gustafsson | 8 of 48 | 16% | 7 of 42 | 0 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 8 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jon Jones | 13 of 15 | 86% | 13 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 13 |
| Alexander Gustafsson | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Cormier | 0 | 58 of 140 | 41% | 60 of 142 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jon Jones | 1 | 95 of 165 | 57% | 95 of 165 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniel Cormier | 0 | 31 of 60 | 51% | 31 of 60 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jon Jones | 0 | 34 of 66 | 51% | 34 of 66 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 2 | Daniel Cormier | 0 | 22 of 54 | 40% | 24 of 56 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jon Jones | 0 | 30 of 47 | 63% | 30 of 47 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Daniel Cormier | 0 | 5 of 26 | 19% | 5 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jon Jones | 1 | 31 of 52 | 59% | 31 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Cormier | 58 of 140 | 41% | 29 of 99 | 12 of 16 | 17 of 25 | 46 of 123 | 12 of 17 | 0 of 0 |
| Jon Jones | 95 of 165 | 57% | 33 of 74 | 32 of 43 | 30 of 48 | 76 of 142 | 4 of 6 | 15 of 17 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniel Cormier | 31 of 60 | 51% | 13 of 36 | 7 of 9 | 11 of 15 | 26 of 50 | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Jon Jones | 34 of 66 | 51% | 8 of 27 | 13 of 19 | 13 of 20 | 31 of 62 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Daniel Cormier | 22 of 54 | 40% | 14 of 41 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 9 | 17 of 49 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Jon Jones | 30 of 47 | 63% | 7 of 17 | 11 of 14 | 12 of 16 | 29 of 45 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Daniel Cormier | 5 of 26 | 19% | 2 of 22 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Jon Jones | 31 of 52 | 59% | 18 of 30 | 8 of 10 | 5 of 12 | 16 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 17 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Jones | 0 | 105 of 157 | 66% | 111 of 163 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 3:54 |
| Ovince Saint Preux | 0 | 57 of 160 | 35% | 58 of 161 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jon Jones | 0 | 13 of 26 | 50% | 13 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Ovince Saint Preux | 0 | 12 of 31 | 38% | 13 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jon Jones | 0 | 18 of 28 | 64% | 20 of 30 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Ovince Saint Preux | 0 | 17 of 39 | 43% | 17 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jon Jones | 0 | 30 of 46 | 65% | 30 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Ovince Saint Preux | 0 | 11 of 40 | 27% | 11 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Jon Jones | 0 | 26 of 29 | 89% | 27 of 30 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:22 |
| Ovince Saint Preux | 0 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 6 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Jon Jones | 0 | 18 of 28 | 64% | 21 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:13 |
| Ovince Saint Preux | 0 | 11 of 38 | 28% | 11 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Jones | 105 of 157 | 66% | 35 of 63 | 24 of 29 | 46 of 65 | 76 of 120 | 11 of 18 | 18 of 19 |
| Ovince Saint Preux | 57 of 160 | 35% | 29 of 113 | 12 of 23 | 16 of 24 | 46 of 143 | 11 of 17 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jon Jones | 13 of 26 | 50% | 1 of 7 | 7 of 9 | 5 of 10 | 11 of 23 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Ovince Saint Preux | 12 of 31 | 38% | 4 of 16 | 3 of 7 | 5 of 8 | 11 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jon Jones | 18 of 28 | 64% | 4 of 10 | 4 of 4 | 10 of 14 | 13 of 21 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Ovince Saint Preux | 17 of 39 | 43% | 12 of 30 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 6 | 10 of 28 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jon Jones | 30 of 46 | 65% | 5 of 12 | 6 of 8 | 19 of 26 | 29 of 44 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Ovince Saint Preux | 11 of 40 | 27% | 7 of 31 | 2 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 10 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Jon Jones | 26 of 29 | 89% | 19 of 20 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 8 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 18 |
| Ovince Saint Preux | 6 of 12 | 50% | 1 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Jon Jones | 18 of 28 | 64% | 6 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 11 | 15 of 22 | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 |
| Ovince Saint Preux | 11 of 38 | 28% | 5 of 30 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 9 of 34 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Maurício Rua - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ihor Potieria | 0 | 17 of 31 | 54% | 21 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Maurício Rua | 1 | 21 of 41 | 51% | 27 of 47 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ihor Potieria | 0 | 17 of 31 | 54% | 21 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Maurício Rua | 1 | 21 of 41 | 51% | 27 of 47 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ihor Potieria | 17 of 31 | 54% | 4 of 17 | 3 of 4 | 10 of 10 | 17 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Maurício Rua | 21 of 41 | 51% | 16 of 35 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 31 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ihor Potieria | 17 of 31 | 54% | 4 of 17 | 3 of 4 | 10 of 10 | 17 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Maurício Rua | 21 of 41 | 51% | 16 of 35 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 31 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 4 |
Big Brady calls this the sketchiest fight on the card and is staying far away from betting. He notes Potieria has power and finishing ability, with most wins in the first round, but is not sold on his UFC caliber. Shogun is washed at 41 and has been for a while. Potieria has a huge hole in takedown defense, but Shogun doesn't wrestle much. He leans towards Potieria by first-round knockout but has no confidence.
Cody picks Ihor Potieria confidently, noting Potieria's power, speed, and youth advantage over an aging Shogun. He says Shogun is past his prime, has poor durability, and is retiring, which historically leads to losses. He thinks Potieria will land something early and put Shogun away. He mentions Shogun's recent performances have been poor, and that Potieria is a limited striker but enough to beat the current Shogun.
Connor agrees with Zane, stating Shogun's prime ended in 2009 and he's been too slow and fragile. He notes Potieria is not very good but not bad enough to lose to Shogun at this point.
Paul picks Ihor Potieria, agreeing with Cody. He says he hopes he's wrong but thinks Potieria will win. He notes Shogun's decline and the retirement announcement curse. He says he won't bet on this fight but picks Potieria. He mentions Shogun's legendary status but says his time is up.
The Guru picks Potieria despite calling him a 'can crusher.' He notes Shogun is 41 and looked awful in recent fights, struggling against Saint Preux. Potieria is young and scrappy, and the Guru trusts the younger fighter to land first. He predicts a first-round TKO for Potieria, though he admits it would be nice to see Shogun win.
Zane picks Potieria because Shogun is too slow and lacks durability. He notes Potieria is a decent athlete with speed and size, and can take shots. He mentions Shogun's recent losses to Paul Craig and OSP show he's done.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ovince Saint Preux | 0 | 54 of 99 | 54% | 54 of 99 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Maurício Rua | 0 | 62 of 112 | 55% | 62 of 112 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ovince Saint Preux | 0 | 20 of 38 | 52% | 20 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Maurício Rua | 0 | 20 of 34 | 58% | 20 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Ovince Saint Preux | 0 | 21 of 33 | 63% | 21 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Maurício Rua | 0 | 20 of 39 | 51% | 20 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Ovince Saint Preux | 0 | 13 of 28 | 46% | 13 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Maurício Rua | 0 | 22 of 39 | 56% | 22 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ovince Saint Preux | 54 of 99 | 54% | 18 of 53 | 11 of 17 | 25 of 29 | 54 of 99 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Maurício Rua | 62 of 112 | 55% | 18 of 57 | 36 of 43 | 8 of 12 | 62 of 112 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ovince Saint Preux | 20 of 38 | 52% | 4 of 20 | 6 of 7 | 10 of 11 | 20 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Maurício Rua | 20 of 34 | 58% | 4 of 15 | 13 of 14 | 3 of 5 | 20 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ovince Saint Preux | 21 of 33 | 63% | 8 of 14 | 4 of 8 | 9 of 11 | 21 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Maurício Rua | 20 of 39 | 51% | 4 of 19 | 13 of 15 | 3 of 5 | 20 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ovince Saint Preux | 13 of 28 | 46% | 6 of 19 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 7 | 13 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Maurício Rua | 22 of 39 | 56% | 10 of 23 | 10 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 22 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Ovince Saint Preux despite his gut feeling for Shogun. He reasons that Saint Preux's athleticism and 66% takedown defense will make it tough for Shogun to take him down. He admits it goes against his childhood watching fights but goes with Saint Preux. He makes no bet on this fight.
Big Brady picks Ovince Saint Preux to win by first-round finish, but he is hesitant. He believes OSP is the less washed fighter and that Shogun has looked poor recently, getting knocked out by Paul Craig and struggling with aging opponents. Stylistically, OSP has the advantage on the feet and can also take Shogun down. However, OSP is 39 and has lost two in a row by knockout, so confidence is low. Brady expects OSP to finish Shogun early, but he would not recommend betting on this fight due to the red flags.
Cody picks OSP, but emphasizes that weigh-ins are crucial. He notes OSP's recent weight misses and injuries, but believes OSP has been fighting better competition lately and giving a better account of himself. In contrast, Shogun is a shell of his former self, with poor performances in his last three fights. Cody thinks OSP's recent activity and level of competition give him the edge, despite the weight concerns.
Daniel Levi picks Shogun Rua as a slight underdog, acknowledging he is a fanboy but also seeing a path to victory. He thinks Shogun has the better process and technique, and may be more motivated after being knocked out quickly in their first fight. However, he is not confident because Shogun's durability is a major concern. He considers a small half-unit bet on Shogun moneyline but does not commit to a bet in the transcript.
The host picks Ovince Saint Preux to win by knockout, likely early. He references their first fight where OSP starched Shogun in 34 seconds. He notes Shogun's age and slowed striking, and OSP's desire to replicate the finish. He prefers betting 'fight doesn't go to decision' at similar odds to OSP moneyline, and likes OSP round 1 at +200. He expects OSP to land on Shogun's chin and put him out.
Paul does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses OSP's weight issues and Shogun's decline, noting that OSP hasn't looked great and Shogun is a shell of himself. He considers it a dogger pass situation and cannot pull the trigger on Shogun. He does not express a preference for either fighter.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Craig | 0 | 10 of 28 | 35% | 25 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:44 |
| Maurício Rua | 0 | 29 of 57 | 50% | 54 of 88 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 3:46 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paul Craig | 0 | 6 of 15 | 40% | 14 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:44 |
| Maurício Rua | 0 | 8 of 24 | 33% | 21 of 39 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 1 | 1:45 | |
| 2 | Paul Craig | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 11 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Maurício Rua | 0 | 21 of 33 | 63% | 33 of 49 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 2:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Craig | 10 of 28 | 35% | 6 of 22 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Maurício Rua | 29 of 57 | 50% | 17 of 38 | 4 of 9 | 8 of 10 | 16 of 35 | 4 of 11 | 9 of 11 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paul Craig | 6 of 15 | 40% | 3 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Maurício Rua | 8 of 24 | 33% | 3 of 15 | 1 of 4 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 15 | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Paul Craig | 4 of 13 | 30% | 3 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Maurício Rua | 21 of 33 | 63% | 14 of 23 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 11 of 20 | 1 of 2 | 9 of 11 |
Big Brady picks Paul Craig to win by first-round knockout. He notes Craig is improving and has a 100% finish rate, while Shogun is on his way out and looked poor in his last fight. He thinks Craig is the better striker now and will finish early.
Daniel picks Shogun as an underdog, citing his one-punch knockout power and experience. He notes Shogun's durability is waning but believes if he avoids an early finish, he can win on the scorecards. He sees Paul Craig's submission threat as less effective against Shogun, who survived Craig's guard in their first fight.
The host picks Paul Craig to win by submission, but is not confident due to Craig's gas tank issues and the line being too high. He thinks Shogun's durability is fading and Craig's jiu-jitsu could get the finish, but recommends passing on betting this fight.
The MMA Guru picks Paul Craig to win by TKO in the first round. He believes Craig's youth will be a huge factor, and that Craig almost finished Shogun in the first fight. He expects Craig to be more explosive and get the finish standing.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurício Rua | 0 | 54 of 103 | 52% | 78 of 129 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:57 |
| Antônio Rogério Nogueira | 0 | 46 of 100 | 46% | 75 of 129 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:21 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maurício Rua | 0 | 16 of 36 | 44% | 24 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:29 |
| Antônio Rogério Nogueira | 0 | 13 of 30 | 43% | 23 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Maurício Rua | 0 | 15 of 31 | 48% | 15 of 31 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Antônio Rogério Nogueira | 0 | 15 of 39 | 38% | 34 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:21 | |
| 3 | Maurício Rua | 0 | 23 of 36 | 63% | 39 of 52 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:17 |
| Antônio Rogério Nogueira | 0 | 18 of 31 | 58% | 18 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurício Rua | 54 of 103 | 52% | 27 of 72 | 11 of 14 | 16 of 17 | 45 of 91 | 6 of 6 | 3 of 6 |
| Antônio Rogério Nogueira | 46 of 100 | 46% | 39 of 91 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 41 of 95 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maurício Rua | 16 of 36 | 44% | 8 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 9 | 11 of 31 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Antônio Rogério Nogueira | 13 of 30 | 43% | 13 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Maurício Rua | 15 of 31 | 48% | 7 of 22 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Antônio Rogério Nogueira | 15 of 39 | 38% | 10 of 34 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | |
| 3 | Maurício Rua | 23 of 36 | 63% | 12 of 24 | 6 of 7 | 5 of 5 | 20 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 |
| Antônio Rogério Nogueira | 18 of 31 | 58% | 16 of 28 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Shogun because he expects him to be the busier fighter and use takedowns, as he did in their previous fights. He acknowledges that Lil Nog has power and could knock Shogun out, especially given Shogun's poor performance against Paul Craig. He calls the fight ugly and says he wouldn't bet it, but leans Shogun by decision.
Daniel leans Shogun because he has beaten Little Nog twice before and can revert to takedowns. He notes both are on the decline but Shogun's low kicks and takedowns should be the difference. He advises passing at the betting window and just enjoying the fight.
Shogun is six years younger and has shown better cardio, going three rounds with younger fighters and even finishing some late. Nogueira has been inactive and finished early in recent fights. Expect a tentative fight with clinching and takedowns, likely going over 1.5 rounds. Shogun should win by decision or late stoppage.
The MMA Guru picks Shogun Rua, believing he still has something left, while Nogueira looks damaged and stiff from his career. He notes Nogueira is coming off a KO loss and shows signs of CTE. He predicts Shogun will get a TKO in the second round, but acknowledges both are old and anything can happen.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurício Rua | 0 | 25 of 66 | 37% | 51 of 108 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 8:21 |
| Paul Craig | 0 | 51 of 99 | 51% | 106 of 160 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 1:16 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maurício Rua | 0 | 7 of 24 | 29% | 14 of 32 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:24 |
| Paul Craig | 0 | 31 of 58 | 53% | 45 of 72 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1:05 | |
| 2 | Maurício Rua | 0 | 9 of 24 | 37% | 22 of 47 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:37 |
| Paul Craig | 0 | 10 of 16 | 62% | 31 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Maurício Rua | 0 | 9 of 18 | 50% | 15 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:20 |
| Paul Craig | 0 | 10 of 25 | 40% | 30 of 49 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurício Rua | 25 of 66 | 37% | 19 of 57 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 7 | 16 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 17 |
| Paul Craig | 51 of 99 | 51% | 30 of 71 | 14 of 20 | 7 of 8 | 39 of 82 | 9 of 13 | 3 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maurício Rua | 7 of 24 | 29% | 6 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Paul Craig | 31 of 58 | 53% | 20 of 41 | 8 of 13 | 3 of 4 | 22 of 45 | 9 of 13 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Maurício Rua | 9 of 24 | 37% | 8 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 11 |
| Paul Craig | 10 of 16 | 62% | 6 of 11 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | |
| 3 | Maurício Rua | 9 of 18 | 50% | 5 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 5 | 6 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 |
| Paul Craig | 10 of 25 | 40% | 4 of 19 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurício Rua | 1 | 30 of 56 | 53% | 62 of 94 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 5:20 |
| Tyson Pedro | 0 | 31 of 44 | 70% | 36 of 49 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:41 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maurício Rua | 0 | 10 of 21 | 47% | 12 of 23 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Tyson Pedro | 0 | 30 of 41 | 73% | 35 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:41 | |
| 2 | Maurício Rua | 0 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 36 of 47 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:33 |
| Tyson Pedro | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Maurício Rua | 1 | 14 of 24 | 58% | 14 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Tyson Pedro | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurício Rua | 30 of 56 | 53% | 23 of 45 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 8 | 12 of 26 | 1 of 2 | 17 of 28 |
| Tyson Pedro | 31 of 44 | 70% | 21 of 33 | 9 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 21 of 33 | 10 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maurício Rua | 10 of 21 | 47% | 6 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 4 | 8 of 18 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Tyson Pedro | 30 of 41 | 73% | 20 of 31 | 9 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 20 of 30 | 10 of 11 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Maurício Rua | 6 of 11 | 54% | 4 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 |
| Tyson Pedro | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Maurício Rua | 14 of 24 | 58% | 13 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 20 |
| Tyson Pedro | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Smith | 0 | 4 of 12 | 33% | 4 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Maurício Rua | 1 | 23 of 31 | 74% | 23 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anthony Smith | 0 | 4 of 12 | 33% | 4 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Maurício Rua | 1 | 23 of 31 | 74% | 23 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Smith | 4 of 12 | 33% | 0 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Maurício Rua | 23 of 31 | 74% | 21 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 23 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anthony Smith | 4 of 12 | 33% | 0 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Maurício Rua | 23 of 31 | 74% | 21 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 23 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurício Rua | 2 | 94 of 173 | 54% | 94 of 174 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Gian Villante | 0 | 55 of 151 | 36% | 55 of 151 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maurício Rua | 1 | 39 of 77 | 50% | 39 of 77 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gian Villante | 0 | 25 of 69 | 36% | 25 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 | |
| 2 | Maurício Rua | 0 | 38 of 68 | 55% | 38 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Gian Villante | 0 | 27 of 68 | 39% | 27 of 68 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Maurício Rua | 1 | 17 of 28 | 60% | 17 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gian Villante | 0 | 3 of 14 | 21% | 3 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurício Rua | 94 of 173 | 54% | 68 of 140 | 16 of 20 | 10 of 13 | 94 of 171 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Gian Villante | 55 of 151 | 36% | 48 of 143 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 55 of 151 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maurício Rua | 39 of 77 | 50% | 28 of 61 | 6 of 9 | 5 of 7 | 39 of 75 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Gian Villante | 25 of 69 | 36% | 21 of 64 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 25 of 69 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Maurício Rua | 38 of 68 | 55% | 26 of 55 | 7 of 7 | 5 of 6 | 38 of 68 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gian Villante | 27 of 68 | 39% | 25 of 66 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 27 of 68 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Maurício Rua | 17 of 28 | 60% | 14 of 24 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gian Villante | 3 of 14 | 21% | 2 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
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