UFC 128: Shogun vs. Jones · Mar 19, 2011 · Light Heavyweight · Completed
UFC 128: Shogun vs. Jones Next Fight
Age 38
Height 6' 4"
Reach 84.0"
Weight 248 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 44
Height 6' 1"
Reach 76"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Jon Jones
4.38 SLpM
58.0% Str. Acc.
2.24 SApM
64.0% Str. Def.
1.89 TD Avg
45.0% TD Acc.
95.0% TD Def.
0.5 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Maurício Rua
3.57 SLpM
50.0% Str. Acc.
2.79 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
2.01 TD Avg
48.0% TD Acc.
49.0% TD Def.
0.7 Sub. Avg
Jon Jones - Fight History
WIN vs Stipe Miocic
TKO (spinning back kick and punches) R3 4:29 · UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · Nov 16, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jon Jones 1 96 of 119 80% 104 of 128 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:51
Stipe Miocic 0 37 of 89 41% 42 of 94 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jon Jones 0 42 of 48 87% 49 of 56 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:37
Stipe Miocic 0 6 of 13 46% 11 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jon Jones 0 20 of 28 71% 20 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Stipe Miocic 0 16 of 37 43% 16 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jon Jones 1 34 of 43 79% 35 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Stipe Miocic 0 15 of 39 38% 15 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jon Jones 96 of 119 80% 70 of 91 16 of 18 10 of 10 54 of 70 2 of 3 40 of 46
Stipe Miocic 37 of 89 41% 24 of 75 7 of 8 6 of 6 32 of 83 4 of 5 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jon Jones 42 of 48 87% 36 of 42 4 of 4 2 of 2 5 of 6 0 of 0 37 of 42
Stipe Miocic 6 of 13 46% 3 of 10 1 of 1 2 of 2 5 of 12 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Jon Jones 20 of 28 71% 9 of 16 7 of 8 4 of 4 19 of 27 1 of 1 0 of 0
Stipe Miocic 16 of 37 43% 9 of 29 4 of 5 3 of 3 16 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jon Jones 34 of 43 79% 25 of 33 5 of 6 4 of 4 30 of 37 1 of 2 3 of 4
Stipe Miocic 15 of 39 38% 12 of 36 2 of 2 1 of 1 11 of 34 4 of 5 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Jon Jones

Angelo is very confident in Jon Jones, citing his all-around greatness, youth, and activity compared to Stipe Miocic, who is a full-time fireman on a four-year layoff. He expects Jones to take Miocic down early and dominate. He thinks Jones should be -1500 and will win easily.

Angelo comments on the odds, saying Jones at -700 is a good value and should be -1500.
"Jon Jones is going to win this fight I think he makes it look easy"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jon Jones

Big Brady picks Jon Jones but expects a slow, disappointing fight. He notes that Stipe Miocic is old and washed, having looked slow against Francis Ngannou four years ago, but he doesn't think Jones will finish him early. He cites Jones' recent lackluster performances against Dominick Reyes and Thiago Santos. He predicts a decision win for Jones and likes the over on 40.5 significant strikes for Jones on PrizePicks.

Jon Jones over 40.5 significant strikes
"give me Jon Jones here to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jon Jones

Cody picks Jon Jones, citing Jones' legendary durability and distance management. He notes Stipe is 43, hasn't fought in 3.5 years, and looked slow against Ngannou. Cody expects Jones to win a 49-46 decision or possibly get a late submission, but sees the fight going the distance. He mentions the over 2.5 rounds as a potential prop.

over 2.5 rounds
"I got Jones by decision the over two and a half but again this is a fun fight but it's it's not the Crown Jewel on this card"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jon Jones

Connor also picks Jones, emphasizing that Stipe is old and likely shot, and that Jones's wrestling and size will be too much. He notes that Stipe's last performance against Ngannou was poor and he looked aimless. Connor expects Jones to take Stipe down and submit him, possibly after a tentative first round.

Jones by submission or TKO; fight may be slow early then finish
"I think jones is much worse than he used to be but I can only assume that steep is much much worse than he used to be... That's the pick."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jon Jones

Daniel Vreeland picks Jon Jones to win, citing Jones' superior MMA wrestling, takedown defense (95%), reach advantage, and younger age. He believes Jones will use oblique kicks to immobilize Stipe, mix in takedowns, and dictate the pace. He acknowledges Stipe's boxing and wrestling credentials but thinks Jones' overall MMA game is superior. He notes that Stipe hasn't fought since 2021 and may have declined.

"I do have to go with Jones here to just come out here and uh show why he's one of the most dominant fighters to ever do it"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jon Jones

Vreeland picks Jones emphatically, calling it tragic that this fight is happening. He notes Stipe hasn't fought anyone well-rounded since 2018, is 42, semi-retired, and was knocked out badly by Ngannou. Vreeland believes Jones will win by knockout, possibly with a 12-to-6 elbow, and that Stipe will look old when he gets knocked out.

Jon Jones wins by knockout (+130)
"I'm taking Jon Jones like no I it's it's tragic that this is like the fight... there's no reason to like stie miic in this fight"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jon Jones

Fox picks Jones, agreeing that Stipe has no chance. He notes Jones is younger, has a reach advantage, and is the better fighter everywhere. Fox expects Jones to win by knockout, possibly with a 12-to-6 elbow, and thinks Stipe's chin is compromised after the Ngannou KO.

Jon Jones wins by knockout (+130)
"I'm Jon Jones all the way in this one... he's 100% gonna win this fight by knockout"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jon Jones

Lucrative James picks Jon Jones to win, citing Stipe Miocic's age (42) and four-year layoff as major concerns. He believes Stipe will look stiff and has lost athleticism, while Jones has an iron chin, superior striking at all ranges, and much better MMA wrestling and grappling. He predicts Jones will win inside the distance, likely within the first two rounds, and notes that Jones can win however he wants if Stipe is a shell of his former self.

wins inside the distance, wins in first two rounds
"I'm taking Jon Jones to win here. I'm taking Jon Jones to win inside the distance here and I'm taking Jon Jones to win within the first two rounds."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2024 (fight day)
Jon Jones

The host expects Jones to continue his dominant ways as he did against Gane, getting to his grappling and keeping Miocic on his back. He mentions Jones might use 12-to-6 elbows but ultimately finds the neck and gets a submission victory.

submission
"I do believe Jones will be able to continue his dominant ways just as he showcased against sraon last time around and I think we'll see him get to his grappl and keep mius on his back dominate him from …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jon Jones

Paul picks Jon Jones, calling it a freak show fight. He argues Jones has fought weak competition and had close fights with lesser opponents, but Stipe is faded and hasn't fought in three years. Paul expects Jones to win by decision, possibly 49-46, and likes the over 2.5 rounds. He notes Jones' distance management and Stipe's age and inactivity.

over 2.5 rounds
"I would think that Jones has got more than enough left in the tank to just pinpoint this guy and uh you know win a 4946 type decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 11, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Jon Jones

The MMA Guru picks Jon Jones, expecting a finish in the first or second round. He describes Jones's oblique kicks and clinch work breaking down the 42-year-old Miocic. He predicts a guillotine choke after a takedown, noting Stipe's tendency to scramble into submissions.

finish in first or second round, guillotine choke
"I'm going to go Jon Jones by finish in the first or second round"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jon Jones

Zane picks Jones, noting that Stipe is old and inactive, having not fought in over three years and showing no interest in fighting. He expects a slog for a round or two, then Jones will take Stipe down and finish him via submission or ground-and-pound. Zane mentions Jones's wrestling and size advantage, and that Stipe's chin and durability are questionable at this stage.

Jones finishes inside the distance, likely submission or TKO; fight may be a slog early then quick finish
"I think jones is much worse than he used to be but I can only assume that steep is much much worse than he used to be... That's the pick."
WIN vs Ciryl Gane
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 2:04 · UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · Mar 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jon Jones 0 5 of 10 50% 8 of 14 2 of 2 100% 1 0 0:57
Ciryl Gane 0 6 of 8 75% 7 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jon Jones 0 5 of 10 50% 8 of 14 2 of 2 100% 1 0 0:57
Ciryl Gane 0 6 of 8 75% 7 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jon Jones 5 of 10 50% 2 of 5 0 of 1 3 of 4 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ciryl Gane 6 of 8 75% 1 of 3 2 of 2 3 of 3 6 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jon Jones 5 of 10 50% 2 of 5 0 of 1 3 of 4 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ciryl Gane 6 of 8 75% 1 of 3 2 of 2 3 of 3 6 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Heavyweight Title Fight: Jon Jones vs. Ciryl Gane
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Jones (-155), Gane (+135)

Round 1
This one is for all the marbles. The heavyweight strap is officially on the line with the relinquishment of Francis Ngannou’s heavyweight crown and his subsequent release. The challengers for the vacant strap will be former light heavyweight king Jones (26-1, 1 NC; 20-1, 1 NC UFC), who is taking his first trip up to this division and weighed 248 pounds, against ex-interim champ Gane (11-1, 8-1 UFC). Surprising many, Gane checked in a half pound lighter than Jones. These big men have 25 minutes to work and establish themselves, and referee Marc Goddard will receive the final assignment of the night. After a touch of gloves and Gane patting Jones’ chest, it’s on. Jones comes out of his corner like usual, climbing upright, and the two throw at one another immediately. Jones fires a punch up top, and Gane responds with a low kick that slams into Jones’ cup and causes a pause in the first 10 seconds of the bout. Jones takes 30 seconds to clear it out, and they get back to action. Jones takes a low kick to stick the Frenchman with a right hand, and he walks Gane down firing at him. Jones sweeps low with a kick, and Gane replies with a similar blow. Jones walks through a jab and marches Gane down, pressuring the Frenchman and no-selling any strikes that land on him. Jones swings with a big body shot that misses the mark, and when Gane fires off a big right hand, Jones ducks under and trips Gane out to drop him to his knees and down. Gane fights back up to his knees, and Jones slips a hook in around the side while Gane works to his feet. Jones pulls Gane down, and he sits on Gane’s knees and suddenly grips with a guillotine choke that is crushing around Gane’s noggin. Jones lets go and resets his grip to slip his forearm under the chin, and he presses his full body weight on the submission to completely fasten the guillotine. Gane is shocked, his eyes wide open, and he frantically taps out before he goes out. Jones has done it! He is a two-division UFC champion, and he made it look easy against a phenomenal opponent. His status as one of the greatest if not the greatest of all time is fully cemented with this victory, which clocked in around two minutes as his quickest since he smashed Vladimir Matyushenko in 2010. After thanking his family and training partners, Jones has one name in mind: Stipe Miocic, for International Fight Week in July. We will absolutely be here should that materialize, and we hope you are too. What a night.

The Official Result
Jon Jones def. Ciryl Gane R1 2:04 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Angelo leans towards Ciryl Gane due to Jon Jones' three-year layoff, weight gain, and poor performance in his last fight. He notes that Gane is a technical striker with great footwork and that Jones struggled with wrestling against Dominick Reyes. Angelo is not betting on this fight.

"I think I have to pick zero gone here because of the layoff because of the unknowns because how shitty Jon Jones looked in his last fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jon Jones

Big Brady picks Jon Jones but is hesitant due to many red flags: a three-year layoff, lackluster recent performances, and moving up to heavyweight. He notes Gane's takedown defense was exposed by Ngannou, and Jones is a great wrestler. He predicts a decision win for Jones, but advises against betting on the fight due to uncertainty.

by decision; no serious bets, maybe a parlay
"give me Jon Jones as far as a pick goes here... I'll take Jon Jones to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Cody is very reluctant to take Jones at -160 given the three-year layoff, recent disinterested performances, and move up to heavyweight. He sees Gane as a legitimate heavyweight who fought Francis Ngannou closely, but worries about Gane's wrestling after Ngannou took him down. He ultimately takes the plus money on Gane but will wait for weigh-ins to see Jones's physique.

Will wait for weigh-ins before locking in; mentions live betting as a possibility
"ever so reluctantly is take the plus money here on Cyril gone but I am going to wait for weigh-ins to really see what's going on"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jon Jones

Connor picks Jones but with significant hesitation. He believes Jones's forward pressure and consistent use of a few tools (lead hook, body kick, side kick) over five rounds will be enough to edge out Gane, despite Jones's decline in activity and wrestling. He expects a close, boring fight where Jones may get hurt but ultimately wins a decision or via a takedown from a Gane error. He notes Gane's poor defensive footwork and tendency to fall apart when pressured, but acknowledges Jones's own defensive flaws and the risk of Gane's jab and kicks.

Expects a close fight; mentions Jones opened at +140 and dropped to -165, but does not recommend a bet.
"I'm going to pick Jones to just have... I don't expect a better version of John Jones. I don't expect anything more than the late career John Jones we've seen. I just think that might still be enough."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Jacob is confident in Ciryl Gane, stating that on the feet, Gane will embarrass Jones with his footwork and speed. He believes Jones will struggle to get takedowns because Gane will be ready for them. Jacob thinks Gane will pick Jones apart and win.

"on the feet cirrogon is going to embarrass Jon Jones he's going to look slow"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jon Jones

Jones is a dominant wrestler with unorthodox striking and a championship mindset. Gane is a slick striker but has shown vulnerability to wrestling, as seen against Francis Ngannou. Jones will drag the fight to the ground and use his top pressure and ground and pound to win. The weight gain shouldn't be detrimental.

surprised by the odds (-155)
"I think Jon Jones will showcase as he said in the past that there are levels to the [ __ ] and I think that Jon Jones as long as packing on the muscle and weight... I think he wins …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jon Jones

Paul picks Jon Jones but says it's a stay away from a betting perspective. He believes Jones's wrestling will be the difference, as Gane was taken down by Ngannou. However, he acknowledges the many question marks around Jones and cannot bet him at -170. He thinks Jones will win but won't put money on it.

Stay away from betting; considers live betting after first few minutes
"Jon Jones is the pick to stay away from a betting perspective for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

The MMA Guru picks Ciryl Gane to upset Jon Jones, citing Jones' long layoff (over 3 years) and recent close fights. He believes Gane's range, leg kicks, and patience will trouble Jones, and that Jones' takedowns won't be as effective at heavyweight. He predicts a decision win for Gane.

"I'm going with Cyril gone to upset Jon Jones... I think he's gonna give Jones some problems."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Zane favors Gane, assuming the fight becomes a slow-paced kickboxing match where Gane's consistency, jab, and kicking variety give him the edge. He doubts Jones's wrestling will be effective due to poor entries and a clench that has deteriorated. He notes Gane's defensive flaws and potential unforced errors (like a bad takedown attempt) could cost him, but overall sees Gane as the more reliable striker at range.

"I favor Gane in this fight. My only real concern with picking him is maybe Jones has really worked on his wrestling."
Decision (unanimous) (48-47, 48–47, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes · Feb 08, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jon Jones 0 104 of 166 62% 107 of 170 2 of 9 22% 0 0 1:41
Dominick Reyes 0 116 of 259 44% 119 of 263 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jon Jones 0 17 of 27 62% 17 of 27 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Dominick Reyes 0 23 of 59 38% 23 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jon Jones 0 22 of 37 59% 22 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dominick Reyes 0 33 of 68 48% 33 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jon Jones 0 19 of 34 55% 20 of 35 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:15
Dominick Reyes 0 26 of 45 57% 27 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Jon Jones 0 20 of 34 58% 20 of 35 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:56
Dominick Reyes 0 13 of 41 31% 14 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Jon Jones 0 26 of 34 76% 28 of 36 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:30
Dominick Reyes 0 21 of 46 45% 22 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jon Jones 104 of 166 62% 31 of 74 30 of 39 43 of 53 101 of 161 3 of 5 0 of 0
Dominick Reyes 116 of 259 44% 41 of 169 48 of 55 27 of 35 109 of 252 7 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jon Jones 17 of 27 62% 1 of 5 6 of 8 10 of 14 17 of 26 0 of 1 0 of 0
Dominick Reyes 23 of 59 38% 7 of 33 11 of 14 5 of 12 20 of 56 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Jon Jones 22 of 37 59% 8 of 19 5 of 7 9 of 11 22 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dominick Reyes 33 of 68 48% 11 of 46 12 of 12 10 of 10 33 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jon Jones 19 of 34 55% 7 of 18 5 of 7 7 of 9 19 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dominick Reyes 26 of 45 57% 7 of 25 13 of 14 6 of 6 23 of 42 3 of 3 0 of 0
4 Jon Jones 20 of 34 58% 8 of 19 6 of 8 6 of 7 17 of 30 3 of 4 0 of 0
Dominick Reyes 13 of 41 31% 7 of 32 4 of 7 2 of 2 12 of 40 1 of 1 0 of 0
5 Jon Jones 26 of 34 76% 7 of 13 8 of 9 11 of 12 26 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dominick Reyes 21 of 46 45% 9 of 33 8 of 8 4 of 5 21 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Jon Jones

Daniel Levi picks Jon Jones, citing his unparalleled skill set, fight IQ, and durability. He notes that Jones has a 7-inch reach advantage and gets better as fights go on, while Reyes may fade after the first round. He expects Jones to pick Reyes apart and possibly get a ground-and-pound finish.

"I think Jon Jones gonna pick this guy apart he's gonna take him down and I think he's gonna pound him out"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Jon Jones

The host picks Jon Jones, likely by decision or late finish, citing his reach, kicks, wrestling, and experience. He believes Jones will establish his range and wear down Reyes, who has not faced anyone of Jones' caliber. He plans to parlay Jones with Andrea Lee as his lock of the night play.

Parlay with Andrea Lee at -161, Jones by decision or late finish
"I am looking at John Jones and Angie Lee parlayed as my locker than I play or the under two and a half of the lingo and slaw fights there's a two plays I'm looking at as my locker than …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2020 (8 days before fight)
Jon Jones

The MMA Guru picks Jon Jones to win, noting that Jones has a massive reach advantage and is more focused after time off. He warns not to sleep on Reyes but believes Jones will win. He also suggests betting small on Reyes as an underdog parlay.

suggests betting small on Reyes as underdog parlay with other underdogs
"John Jones will get the win over Dominic roster"
WIN vs Thiago Santos
Decision (split) (48–47, 48–47, 47–48) R5 5:00 · UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos · Jul 06, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jon Jones 0 59 of 90 65% 59 of 90 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Thiago Santos 0 43 of 166 25% 43 of 166 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jon Jones 0 7 of 16 43% 7 of 16 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Thiago Santos 0 11 of 26 42% 11 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jon Jones 0 11 of 17 64% 11 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Thiago Santos 0 7 of 42 16% 7 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jon Jones 0 14 of 19 73% 14 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Thiago Santos 0 6 of 33 18% 6 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Jon Jones 0 11 of 17 64% 11 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Thiago Santos 0 8 of 28 28% 8 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Jon Jones 0 16 of 21 76% 16 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Thiago Santos 0 11 of 37 29% 11 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jon Jones 59 of 90 65% 11 of 32 16 of 19 32 of 39 55 of 84 4 of 6 0 of 0
Thiago Santos 43 of 166 25% 9 of 92 7 of 21 27 of 53 42 of 159 1 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jon Jones 7 of 16 43% 0 of 4 3 of 5 4 of 7 7 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Thiago Santos 11 of 26 42% 3 of 12 1 of 1 7 of 13 11 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jon Jones 11 of 17 64% 2 of 7 4 of 4 5 of 6 10 of 15 1 of 2 0 of 0
Thiago Santos 7 of 42 16% 1 of 25 2 of 6 4 of 11 6 of 38 1 of 4 0 of 0
3 Jon Jones 14 of 19 73% 4 of 7 4 of 4 6 of 8 11 of 15 3 of 4 0 of 0
Thiago Santos 6 of 33 18% 1 of 17 1 of 6 4 of 10 6 of 30 0 of 3 0 of 0
4 Jon Jones 11 of 17 64% 2 of 7 2 of 3 7 of 7 11 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Thiago Santos 8 of 28 28% 0 of 13 1 of 5 7 of 10 8 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Jon Jones 16 of 21 76% 3 of 7 3 of 3 10 of 11 16 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Thiago Santos 11 of 37 29% 4 of 25 2 of 3 5 of 9 11 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
WIN vs Anthony Smith
Decision (unanimous) (48–44, 48–44, 48–44) R5 5:00 · UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith · Mar 02, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jon Jones 0 125 of 167 74% 238 of 287 3 of 8 37% 0 0 12:58
Anthony Smith 0 36 of 66 54% 45 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jon Jones 0 13 of 25 52% 17 of 29 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:40
Anthony Smith 0 12 of 21 57% 13 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jon Jones 0 30 of 44 68% 35 of 49 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:45
Anthony Smith 0 14 of 24 58% 14 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jon Jones 0 27 of 30 90% 57 of 60 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:21
Anthony Smith 0 2 of 3 66% 5 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Jon Jones 0 35 of 39 89% 51 of 58 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:38
Anthony Smith 0 1 of 1 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Jon Jones 0 20 of 29 68% 78 of 91 0 of 2 0% 0 0 3:34
Anthony Smith 0 7 of 17 41% 11 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jon Jones 125 of 167 74% 45 of 80 35 of 40 45 of 47 64 of 102 31 of 34 30 of 31
Anthony Smith 36 of 66 54% 15 of 40 9 of 14 12 of 12 31 of 59 5 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jon Jones 13 of 25 52% 1 of 11 5 of 7 7 of 7 12 of 22 1 of 3 0 of 0
Anthony Smith 12 of 21 57% 1 of 9 3 of 4 8 of 8 10 of 19 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Jon Jones 30 of 44 68% 6 of 17 8 of 10 16 of 17 28 of 42 2 of 2 0 of 0
Anthony Smith 14 of 24 58% 8 of 15 4 of 7 2 of 2 14 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jon Jones 27 of 30 90% 4 of 6 10 of 11 13 of 13 4 of 6 17 of 18 6 of 6
Anthony Smith 2 of 3 66% 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 1 2 of 2 0 of 0
4 Jon Jones 35 of 39 89% 25 of 29 9 of 9 1 of 1 10 of 13 1 of 1 24 of 25
Anthony Smith 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Jon Jones 20 of 29 68% 9 of 17 3 of 3 8 of 9 10 of 19 10 of 10 0 of 0
Anthony Smith 7 of 17 41% 6 of 16 0 of 0 1 of 1 6 of 14 1 of 3 0 of 0
TKO (punches) R3 2:02 · UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 · Dec 29, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jon Jones 0 59 of 102 57% 63 of 106 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:28
Alexander Gustafsson 0 22 of 83 26% 24 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jon Jones 0 19 of 36 52% 20 of 37 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Alexander Gustafsson 0 13 of 32 40% 14 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jon Jones 0 27 of 51 52% 27 of 51 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Alexander Gustafsson 0 8 of 48 16% 8 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jon Jones 0 13 of 15 86% 16 of 18 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:28
Alexander Gustafsson 0 1 of 3 33% 2 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jon Jones 59 of 102 57% 26 of 52 15 of 22 18 of 28 40 of 81 7 of 8 12 of 13
Alexander Gustafsson 22 of 83 26% 12 of 62 4 of 11 6 of 10 19 of 80 3 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jon Jones 19 of 36 52% 5 of 17 7 of 8 7 of 11 15 of 31 4 of 5 0 of 0
Alexander Gustafsson 13 of 32 40% 4 of 18 4 of 6 5 of 8 10 of 29 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Jon Jones 27 of 51 52% 8 of 20 8 of 14 11 of 17 24 of 48 3 of 3 0 of 0
Alexander Gustafsson 8 of 48 16% 7 of 42 0 of 4 1 of 2 8 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jon Jones 13 of 15 86% 13 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 12 of 13
Alexander Gustafsson 1 of 3 33% 1 of 2 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
LOSS vs Daniel Cormier
NC (overturned) R3 3:01 · UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2 · Jul 29, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Daniel Cormier 0 58 of 140 41% 60 of 142 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Jon Jones 1 95 of 165 57% 95 of 165 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Daniel Cormier 0 31 of 60 51% 31 of 60 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Jon Jones 0 34 of 66 51% 34 of 66 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
2 Daniel Cormier 0 22 of 54 40% 24 of 56 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Jon Jones 0 30 of 47 63% 30 of 47 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Daniel Cormier 0 5 of 26 19% 5 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jon Jones 1 31 of 52 59% 31 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Daniel Cormier 58 of 140 41% 29 of 99 12 of 16 17 of 25 46 of 123 12 of 17 0 of 0
Jon Jones 95 of 165 57% 33 of 74 32 of 43 30 of 48 76 of 142 4 of 6 15 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Daniel Cormier 31 of 60 51% 13 of 36 7 of 9 11 of 15 26 of 50 5 of 10 0 of 0
Jon Jones 34 of 66 51% 8 of 27 13 of 19 13 of 20 31 of 62 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Daniel Cormier 22 of 54 40% 14 of 41 3 of 4 5 of 9 17 of 49 5 of 5 0 of 0
Jon Jones 30 of 47 63% 7 of 17 11 of 14 12 of 16 29 of 45 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Daniel Cormier 5 of 26 19% 2 of 22 2 of 3 1 of 1 3 of 24 2 of 2 0 of 0
Jon Jones 31 of 52 59% 18 of 30 8 of 10 5 of 12 16 of 35 0 of 0 15 of 17
Decision (unanimous) (50–44, 50–45, 50–45) R5 5:00 · UFC 197: Jones vs. Saint Preux · Apr 23, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jon Jones 0 105 of 157 66% 111 of 163 3 of 5 60% 0 0 3:54
Ovince Saint Preux 0 57 of 160 35% 58 of 161 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jon Jones 0 13 of 26 50% 13 of 26 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Ovince Saint Preux 0 12 of 31 38% 13 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jon Jones 0 18 of 28 64% 20 of 30 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:14
Ovince Saint Preux 0 17 of 39 43% 17 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jon Jones 0 30 of 46 65% 30 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Ovince Saint Preux 0 11 of 40 27% 11 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Jon Jones 0 26 of 29 89% 27 of 30 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:22
Ovince Saint Preux 0 6 of 12 50% 6 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Jon Jones 0 18 of 28 64% 21 of 31 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:13
Ovince Saint Preux 0 11 of 38 28% 11 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jon Jones 105 of 157 66% 35 of 63 24 of 29 46 of 65 76 of 120 11 of 18 18 of 19
Ovince Saint Preux 57 of 160 35% 29 of 113 12 of 23 16 of 24 46 of 143 11 of 17 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jon Jones 13 of 26 50% 1 of 7 7 of 9 5 of 10 11 of 23 2 of 3 0 of 0
Ovince Saint Preux 12 of 31 38% 4 of 16 3 of 7 5 of 8 11 of 30 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Jon Jones 18 of 28 64% 4 of 10 4 of 4 10 of 14 13 of 21 5 of 7 0 of 0
Ovince Saint Preux 17 of 39 43% 12 of 30 2 of 3 3 of 6 10 of 28 7 of 11 0 of 0
3 Jon Jones 30 of 46 65% 5 of 12 6 of 8 19 of 26 29 of 44 1 of 2 0 of 0
Ovince Saint Preux 11 of 40 27% 7 of 31 2 of 6 2 of 3 10 of 39 1 of 1 0 of 0
4 Jon Jones 26 of 29 89% 19 of 20 4 of 5 3 of 4 8 of 10 1 of 1 17 of 18
Ovince Saint Preux 6 of 12 50% 1 of 6 2 of 3 3 of 3 6 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Jon Jones 18 of 28 64% 6 of 14 3 of 3 9 of 11 15 of 22 2 of 5 1 of 1
Ovince Saint Preux 11 of 38 28% 5 of 30 3 of 4 3 of 4 9 of 34 2 of 4 0 of 0
Maurício Rua - Fight History
LOSS vs Ihor Potieria
TKO (punches) R1 4:05 · UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · Jan 21, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ihor Potieria 0 17 of 31 54% 21 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Maurício Rua 1 21 of 41 51% 27 of 47 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:38
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ihor Potieria 0 17 of 31 54% 21 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Maurício Rua 1 21 of 41 51% 27 of 47 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ihor Potieria 17 of 31 54% 4 of 17 3 of 4 10 of 10 17 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Maurício Rua 21 of 41 51% 16 of 35 3 of 4 2 of 2 13 of 31 5 of 6 3 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ihor Potieria 17 of 31 54% 4 of 17 3 of 4 10 of 10 17 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Maurício Rua 21 of 41 51% 16 of 35 3 of 4 2 of 2 13 of 31 5 of 6 3 of 4
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jan 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Ihor Potieria

Big Brady calls this the sketchiest fight on the card and is staying far away from betting. He notes Potieria has power and finishing ability, with most wins in the first round, but is not sold on his UFC caliber. Shogun is washed at 41 and has been for a while. Potieria has a huge hole in takedown defense, but Shogun doesn't wrestle much. He leans towards Potieria by first-round knockout but has no confidence.

"pateria first found knockout for me"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ihor Potieria

Cody picks Ihor Potieria confidently, noting Potieria's power, speed, and youth advantage over an aging Shogun. He says Shogun is past his prime, has poor durability, and is retiring, which historically leads to losses. He thinks Potieria will land something early and put Shogun away. He mentions Shogun's recent performances have been poor, and that Potieria is a limited striker but enough to beat the current Shogun.

mentions Shogun's retirement announcement as a negative factor
"I think he's going to land something he's going to put him away he showed in that sadolski fight on the contender series that he absolutely does have good power"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ihor Potieria

Connor agrees with Zane, stating Shogun's prime ended in 2009 and he's been too slow and fragile. He notes Potieria is not very good but not bad enough to lose to Shogun at this point.

"He's a decent athlete with speed and size for the division."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ihor Potieria

Paul picks Ihor Potieria, agreeing with Cody. He says he hopes he's wrong but thinks Potieria will win. He notes Shogun's decline and the retirement announcement curse. He says he won't bet on this fight but picks Potieria. He mentions Shogun's legendary status but says his time is up.

not betting on this fight
"I hate to say I agree with you and I'm not even really going to add anything to it I hope I'm wrong I'm picking ihor I won't be betting on this fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Ihor Potieria

The Guru picks Potieria despite calling him a 'can crusher.' He notes Shogun is 41 and looked awful in recent fights, struggling against Saint Preux. Potieria is young and scrappy, and the Guru trusts the younger fighter to land first. He predicts a first-round TKO for Potieria, though he admits it would be nice to see Shogun win.

TKO in first round
"I'm going with Igor pateria I think you'll find the TKO on Shogun Shogun looks awful in his last few fights"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ihor Potieria

Zane picks Potieria because Shogun is too slow and lacks durability. He notes Potieria is a decent athlete with speed and size, and can take shots. He mentions Shogun's recent losses to Paul Craig and OSP show he's done.

"You got to pick him because you can't pick Shogun anymore."
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · May 07, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ovince Saint Preux 0 54 of 99 54% 54 of 99 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Maurício Rua 0 62 of 112 55% 62 of 112 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ovince Saint Preux 0 20 of 38 52% 20 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Maurício Rua 0 20 of 34 58% 20 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Ovince Saint Preux 0 21 of 33 63% 21 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Maurício Rua 0 20 of 39 51% 20 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Ovince Saint Preux 0 13 of 28 46% 13 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Maurício Rua 0 22 of 39 56% 22 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ovince Saint Preux 54 of 99 54% 18 of 53 11 of 17 25 of 29 54 of 99 0 of 0 0 of 0
Maurício Rua 62 of 112 55% 18 of 57 36 of 43 8 of 12 62 of 112 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ovince Saint Preux 20 of 38 52% 4 of 20 6 of 7 10 of 11 20 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Maurício Rua 20 of 34 58% 4 of 15 13 of 14 3 of 5 20 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Ovince Saint Preux 21 of 33 63% 8 of 14 4 of 8 9 of 11 21 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
Maurício Rua 20 of 39 51% 4 of 19 13 of 15 3 of 5 20 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Ovince Saint Preux 13 of 28 46% 6 of 19 1 of 2 6 of 7 13 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Maurício Rua 22 of 39 56% 10 of 23 10 of 14 2 of 2 22 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 30, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Ovince Saint Preux

Angelo picks Ovince Saint Preux despite his gut feeling for Shogun. He reasons that Saint Preux's athleticism and 66% takedown defense will make it tough for Shogun to take him down. He admits it goes against his childhood watching fights but goes with Saint Preux. He makes no bet on this fight.

No bet
"I got to go with oven st prue here but i'm not no no bet i am not making a bet here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 2, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Ovince Saint Preux

Big Brady picks Ovince Saint Preux to win by first-round finish, but he is hesitant. He believes OSP is the less washed fighter and that Shogun has looked poor recently, getting knocked out by Paul Craig and struggling with aging opponents. Stylistically, OSP has the advantage on the feet and can also take Shogun down. However, OSP is 39 and has lost two in a row by knockout, so confidence is low. Brady expects OSP to finish Shogun early, but he would not recommend betting on this fight due to the red flags.

first round finish
"I gotta go osp here I'm going to say osp wins I'm going to say he kind of runs through shogun whether it's a knockout on the feet whether it's a grounded pound tko whether it's a submission on the …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 4, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Ovince Saint Preux

Cody picks OSP, but emphasizes that weigh-ins are crucial. He notes OSP's recent weight misses and injuries, but believes OSP has been fighting better competition lately and giving a better account of himself. In contrast, Shogun is a shell of his former self, with poor performances in his last three fights. Cody thinks OSP's recent activity and level of competition give him the edge, despite the weight concerns.

"i gotta retain with osb here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 5, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Maurício Rua

Daniel Levi picks Shogun Rua as a slight underdog, acknowledging he is a fanboy but also seeing a path to victory. He thinks Shogun has the better process and technique, and may be more motivated after being knocked out quickly in their first fight. However, he is not confident because Shogun's durability is a major concern. He considers a small half-unit bet on Shogun moneyline but does not commit to a bet in the transcript.

Daniel mentions he is not comfortable laying -250 on OSP. He considers a small bet on Shogun but does not confirm placing it. He notes OSP by KO at +250 is a decent prop but prefers moneyline.
"I'm picking Shogun to win this fight. I don't hate it man, and if you are gonna bet the fight, I mean with you if you're betting the money line no chance I'm laying chalk on OSP."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 6, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Ovince Saint Preux

The host picks Ovince Saint Preux to win by knockout, likely early. He references their first fight where OSP starched Shogun in 34 seconds. He notes Shogun's age and slowed striking, and OSP's desire to replicate the finish. He prefers betting 'fight doesn't go to decision' at similar odds to OSP moneyline, and likes OSP round 1 at +200. He expects OSP to land on Shogun's chin and put him out.

fight doesn't go to decision; OSP round 1 +200
"same proof decide here he's going to go out there he's going to land on the chin and put him out"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked May 4, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Paul does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses OSP's weight issues and Shogun's decline, noting that OSP hasn't looked great and Shogun is a shell of himself. He considers it a dogger pass situation and cannot pull the trigger on Shogun. He does not express a preference for either fighter.

"i guess it's a dogger pass situation again for me here like osp hasn't been looking great himself he's super slow it's probably pretty good matchmaking but like are you really gonna have the cajones to pull the trigger on …"
LOSS vs Paul Craig
TKO (submission to punches) R2 3:36 · UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez · Nov 21, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Paul Craig 0 10 of 28 35% 25 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:44
Maurício Rua 0 29 of 57 50% 54 of 88 4 of 8 50% 0 1 3:46
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Paul Craig 0 6 of 15 40% 14 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:44
Maurício Rua 0 8 of 24 33% 21 of 39 2 of 3 66% 0 1 1:45
2 Paul Craig 0 4 of 13 30% 11 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Maurício Rua 0 21 of 33 63% 33 of 49 2 of 5 40% 0 0 2:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Paul Craig 10 of 28 35% 6 of 22 2 of 4 2 of 2 9 of 26 0 of 0 1 of 2
Maurício Rua 29 of 57 50% 17 of 38 4 of 9 8 of 10 16 of 35 4 of 11 9 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Paul Craig 6 of 15 40% 3 of 11 1 of 2 2 of 2 5 of 13 0 of 0 1 of 2
Maurício Rua 8 of 24 33% 3 of 15 1 of 4 4 of 5 5 of 15 3 of 9 0 of 0
2 Paul Craig 4 of 13 30% 3 of 11 1 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Maurício Rua 21 of 33 63% 14 of 23 3 of 5 4 of 5 11 of 20 1 of 2 9 of 11
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 18, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Paul Craig

Big Brady picks Paul Craig to win by first-round knockout. He notes Craig is improving and has a 100% finish rate, while Shogun is on his way out and looked poor in his last fight. He thinks Craig is the better striker now and will finish early.

"i'm going to say paul craig knocks out shogun in the first round"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Maurício Rua

Daniel picks Shogun as an underdog, citing his one-punch knockout power and experience. He notes Shogun's durability is waning but believes if he avoids an early finish, he can win on the scorecards. He sees Paul Craig's submission threat as less effective against Shogun, who survived Craig's guard in their first fight.

knockout
"i'm going to pick him to win outright and i think at the betting window it is a dogger pass situation i'm not going to disrespect the legend i'm gonna go with mauricio shogun hua to knock out paul craig"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Nov 17, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Paul Craig

The host picks Paul Craig to win by submission, but is not confident due to Craig's gas tank issues and the line being too high. He thinks Shogun's durability is fading and Craig's jiu-jitsu could get the finish, but recommends passing on betting this fight.

"I'm going to go with Paul Craig I'm going to go with the youth um I'm going to go with the potential of that Jiu-Jitsu"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 15, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Paul Craig

The MMA Guru picks Paul Craig to win by TKO in the first round. He believes Craig's youth will be a huge factor, and that Craig almost finished Shogun in the first fight. He expects Craig to be more explosive and get the finish standing.

first round tko
"i think he'll get the job done against shogun hua by tko in the first round"
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Whittaker vs. Till · Jul 26, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Maurício Rua 0 54 of 103 52% 78 of 129 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:57
Antônio Rogério Nogueira 0 46 of 100 46% 75 of 129 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Maurício Rua 0 16 of 36 44% 24 of 46 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:29
Antônio Rogério Nogueira 0 13 of 30 43% 23 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Maurício Rua 0 15 of 31 48% 15 of 31 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:11
Antônio Rogério Nogueira 0 15 of 39 38% 34 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:21
3 Maurício Rua 0 23 of 36 63% 39 of 52 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:17
Antônio Rogério Nogueira 0 18 of 31 58% 18 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Maurício Rua 54 of 103 52% 27 of 72 11 of 14 16 of 17 45 of 91 6 of 6 3 of 6
Antônio Rogério Nogueira 46 of 100 46% 39 of 91 7 of 9 0 of 0 41 of 95 1 of 1 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Maurício Rua 16 of 36 44% 8 of 26 0 of 1 8 of 9 11 of 31 5 of 5 0 of 0
Antônio Rogério Nogueira 13 of 30 43% 13 of 29 0 of 1 0 of 0 13 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Maurício Rua 15 of 31 48% 7 of 22 5 of 6 3 of 3 14 of 30 1 of 1 0 of 0
Antônio Rogério Nogueira 15 of 39 38% 10 of 34 5 of 5 0 of 0 10 of 34 1 of 1 4 of 4
3 Maurício Rua 23 of 36 63% 12 of 24 6 of 7 5 of 5 20 of 30 0 of 0 3 of 6
Antônio Rogério Nogueira 18 of 31 58% 16 of 28 2 of 3 0 of 0 18 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 22, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Maurício Rua

Big Brady picks Shogun because he expects him to be the busier fighter and use takedowns, as he did in their previous fights. He acknowledges that Lil Nog has power and could knock Shogun out, especially given Shogun's poor performance against Paul Craig. He calls the fight ugly and says he wouldn't bet it, but leans Shogun by decision.

Shogun by decision; if betting, take a shot on Lil Nog by KO
"I'm gonna go with shogun here you know just because he's going to be the busier fighter the more active fighter"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 23, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Maurício Rua

Daniel leans Shogun because he has beaten Little Nog twice before and can revert to takedowns. He notes both are on the decline but Shogun's low kicks and takedowns should be the difference. He advises passing at the betting window and just enjoying the fight.

pass at the betting window
"i'm a lean with shogun he's beat him twice before he knows what he's got to do and he can always revert back to the takedowns to get it done so i'ma lean with shogun here but at the betting …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Maurício Rua

Shogun is six years younger and has shown better cardio, going three rounds with younger fighters and even finishing some late. Nogueira has been inactive and finished early in recent fights. Expect a tentative fight with clinching and takedowns, likely going over 1.5 rounds. Shogun should win by decision or late stoppage.

Over 1.5 rounds (-125)
"i like shogun to win this fight by decision or even third round stoppage"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Maurício Rua

The MMA Guru picks Shogun Rua, believing he still has something left, while Nogueira looks damaged and stiff from his career. He notes Nogueira is coming off a KO loss and shows signs of CTE. He predicts Shogun will get a TKO in the second round, but acknowledges both are old and anything can happen.

TKO in the second round
"I think Shogun gets him in the second round by TKO."
LOSS vs Paul Craig
Draw (split) (29–28, 28–29, 28–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare · Nov 16, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Maurício Rua 0 25 of 66 37% 51 of 108 1 of 3 33% 0 0 8:21
Paul Craig 0 51 of 99 51% 106 of 160 1 of 4 25% 1 0 1:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Maurício Rua 0 7 of 24 29% 14 of 32 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:24
Paul Craig 0 31 of 58 53% 45 of 72 0 of 2 0% 1 0 1:05
2 Maurício Rua 0 9 of 24 37% 22 of 47 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:37
Paul Craig 0 10 of 16 62% 31 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Maurício Rua 0 9 of 18 50% 15 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:20
Paul Craig 0 10 of 25 40% 30 of 49 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:11
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Maurício Rua 25 of 66 37% 19 of 57 1 of 2 5 of 7 16 of 48 1 of 1 8 of 17
Paul Craig 51 of 99 51% 30 of 71 14 of 20 7 of 8 39 of 82 9 of 13 3 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Maurício Rua 7 of 24 29% 6 of 23 0 of 0 1 of 1 6 of 23 1 of 1 0 of 0
Paul Craig 31 of 58 53% 20 of 41 8 of 13 3 of 4 22 of 45 9 of 13 0 of 0
2 Maurício Rua 9 of 24 37% 8 of 22 0 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 13 0 of 0 5 of 11
Paul Craig 10 of 16 62% 6 of 11 3 of 4 1 of 1 8 of 14 0 of 0 2 of 2
3 Maurício Rua 9 of 18 50% 5 of 12 1 of 1 3 of 5 6 of 12 0 of 0 3 of 6
Paul Craig 10 of 25 40% 4 of 19 3 of 3 3 of 3 9 of 23 0 of 0 1 of 2
WIN vs Tyson Pedro
TKO (punches) R3 0:43 · UFC Fight Night: dos Santos vs. Tuivasa · Dec 02, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Maurício Rua 1 30 of 56 53% 62 of 94 3 of 5 60% 0 0 5:20
Tyson Pedro 0 31 of 44 70% 36 of 49 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Maurício Rua 0 10 of 21 47% 12 of 23 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:35
Tyson Pedro 0 30 of 41 73% 35 of 46 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:41
2 Maurício Rua 0 6 of 11 54% 36 of 47 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:33
Tyson Pedro 0 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Maurício Rua 1 14 of 24 58% 14 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Tyson Pedro 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Maurício Rua 30 of 56 53% 23 of 45 2 of 3 5 of 8 12 of 26 1 of 2 17 of 28
Tyson Pedro 31 of 44 70% 21 of 33 9 of 10 1 of 1 21 of 33 10 of 11 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Maurício Rua 10 of 21 47% 6 of 15 1 of 2 3 of 4 8 of 18 1 of 2 1 of 1
Tyson Pedro 30 of 41 73% 20 of 31 9 of 9 1 of 1 20 of 30 10 of 11 0 of 0
2 Maurício Rua 6 of 11 54% 4 of 9 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 7
Tyson Pedro 0 of 2 0% 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Maurício Rua 14 of 24 58% 13 of 21 0 of 0 1 of 3 2 of 4 0 of 0 12 of 20
Tyson Pedro 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
LOSS vs Anthony Smith
KO (elbow and punches) R1 1:29 · UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smith · Jul 22, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Anthony Smith 0 4 of 12 33% 4 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Maurício Rua 1 23 of 31 74% 23 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Anthony Smith 0 4 of 12 33% 4 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Maurício Rua 1 23 of 31 74% 23 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Anthony Smith 4 of 12 33% 0 of 7 1 of 1 3 of 4 4 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Maurício Rua 23 of 31 74% 21 of 29 0 of 0 2 of 2 23 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Anthony Smith 4 of 12 33% 0 of 7 1 of 1 3 of 4 4 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Maurício Rua 23 of 31 74% 21 of 29 0 of 0 2 of 2 23 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
WIN vs Gian Villante
TKO (head kick and punches) R3 0:59 · UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Gastelum · Mar 11, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Maurício Rua 2 94 of 173 54% 94 of 174 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:04
Gian Villante 0 55 of 151 36% 55 of 151 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Maurício Rua 1 39 of 77 50% 39 of 77 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:00
Gian Villante 0 25 of 69 36% 25 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
2 Maurício Rua 0 38 of 68 55% 38 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Gian Villante 0 27 of 68 39% 27 of 68 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Maurício Rua 1 17 of 28 60% 17 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gian Villante 0 3 of 14 21% 3 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Maurício Rua 94 of 173 54% 68 of 140 16 of 20 10 of 13 94 of 171 0 of 2 0 of 0
Gian Villante 55 of 151 36% 48 of 143 3 of 4 4 of 4 55 of 151 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Maurício Rua 39 of 77 50% 28 of 61 6 of 9 5 of 7 39 of 75 0 of 2 0 of 0
Gian Villante 25 of 69 36% 21 of 64 2 of 3 2 of 2 25 of 69 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Maurício Rua 38 of 68 55% 26 of 55 7 of 7 5 of 6 38 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gian Villante 27 of 68 39% 25 of 66 1 of 1 1 of 1 27 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Maurício Rua 17 of 28 60% 14 of 24 3 of 4 0 of 0 17 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gian Villante 3 of 14 21% 2 of 13 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0