UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez

Big Brady picks Deiveson Figueiredo to win inside the distance. He notes Figueiredo is a killer with heavy hands and a great submission game, while Perez has been submitted three times and is stepping up in competition. He thinks Perez will shoot takedowns and get caught.

Daniel picks Figueiredo, citing his killer instinct and improved nutrition. He notes Perez has a chin issue and was dropped by a head clash. He believes Figueiredo's power and pressure will be too much, and that he will be a long-reigning champion.

The host picks Alex Perez to win by decision, seeing value at plus 250. He believes Perez has the wrestling and calf kicks to trouble Figueiredo, and that the line is skewed by recency bias. He notes Perez's win over Formiga (who beat Figueiredo) and thinks he can implement a game plan of leg kicks and takedowns.

The MMA Guru picks Deiveson Figueiredo to win by first-round submission (guillotine choke). He believes Figueiredo will rock Perez, who will then shoot a bad takedown and get caught. He notes Perez's history of being guillotined and Figueiredo's power and submission skills.

Big Brady picks Valentina Shevchenko to win by third-round knockout. He states she is clearly the better fighter and arguably the women's GOAT behind Nunes. He expects her to finish Maia within the first few rounds.

Daniel picks Shevchenko to win by knockout, dismissing any chance of an upset. He notes Maia has been knocked out before and that Shevchenko is a dominant champion. He expects a finish, though he acknowledges a decision is possible.

The host picks Valentina Shevchenko to win by second or third round KO. He believes she is superior everywhere and will finish Maia, who he views as a lamb brought to slaughter. He recommends betting Shevchenko inside the distance rather than the moneyline.

The MMA Guru picks Valentina Shevchenko to win by unanimous decision (50-45). He expects a boring fight where Shevchenko outstrikes Maia on the feet and stuffs her takedowns. He criticizes Maia's competition and believes Shevchenko is the queen of a graveyard division.

Big Brady hesitantly picks Tim Means to win by decision. He thinks Means is the more technical and well-rounded fighter, but has durability concerns after being knocked out recently. He notes Perry's headspace is questionable and he didn't look great against Gall, but Means is on short notice.

Daniel picks Means, citing his superior boxing and overall MMA skills. He notes Perry's lack of head movement and poor corner situation. He believes Means can stay disciplined, use volume, and mix in takedowns to avoid Perry's power. He thinks Means should be the favorite.

The host picks Tim Means to win by decision, noting his superior skill set and ability to keep Perry at range with leg kicks and teeps. He is skeptical of Perry's power and thinks Means can outpoint him. He would only bet Means if the line reaches plus 150.

The MMA Guru picks Mike Perry to win by unanimous decision (29-28), but expresses worry. He notes Means took the fight on short notice, and Perry has a full camp now. He expects Perry to use takedowns and outwork Means in the later rounds, but admits Means is dangerous and a full-camp Means might beat Perry.

Big Brady picks Cynthia Calvillo to win by decision. He notes Calvillo has good wrestling and Chookagian has poor takedown defense (48%). He thinks Calvillo will take her down and control the fight, though the line is too wide for a close fight.

Daniel picks Calvillo, citing her toughness, improved striking, and ground game. He notes Chookagian has been talking about retirement and was stopped in her last fight. He believes Calvillo is hungrier and will impose her will, especially if she gets top position.

The host picks Katlyn Cerminara to win by decision, seeing massive value at plus money. He believes her movement and range will cause problems for Calvillo, and that she can keep the fight on the feet or hold her own on the ground. He thinks the line is too wide and that Cerminara has a good chance.

The MMA Guru picks Cynthia Calvillo to win by unanimous decision (30-27). He believes Calvillo's takedowns will be the difference, as she has evolved and has good grappling. He notes Chookagian may be coming back too soon after a body shot loss, and that Calvillo has wins over top flyweights like Joanne Calderwood.

Big Brady picks Paul Craig to win by first-round knockout. He notes Craig is improving and has a 100% finish rate, while Shogun is on his way out and looked poor in his last fight. He thinks Craig is the better striker now and will finish early.

Daniel picks Shogun as an underdog, citing his one-punch knockout power and experience. He notes Shogun's durability is waning but believes if he avoids an early finish, he can win on the scorecards. He sees Paul Craig's submission threat as less effective against Shogun, who survived Craig's guard in their first fight.

The host picks Paul Craig to win by submission, but is not confident due to Craig's gas tank issues and the line being too high. He thinks Shogun's durability is fading and Craig's jiu-jitsu could get the finish, but recommends passing on betting this fight.

The MMA Guru picks Paul Craig to win by TKO in the first round. He believes Craig's youth will be a huge factor, and that Craig almost finished Shogun in the first fight. He expects Craig to be more explosive and get the finish standing.

Big Brady picks Brandon Moreno to win by decision. He thinks Moreno is the more technical striker and has improved his scrambling and ground game. He notes Royval is hittable and was rocked by Kara-France, but both fighters have never been finished.

Daniel picks Royval as an underdog, citing his impressive performance against Kai Kara-France and his relentless pace. He notes Moreno may be in a letdown spot after beating Formiga. He sees Royval's Muay Thai and jiu-jitsu as advantages, and believes Royval's momentum and volume will carry him.

The host picks Brandon Moreno to win, possibly by second round TKO or submission. He views Moreno as a slightly better version of Royval, with crisper striking and improved jiu-jitsu. He notes the fight is close and recommends the under 2.5 rounds as a bet rather than the moneyline.

The MMA Guru picks Brandon Moreno to win by unanimous decision (29-28). He cites Moreno's reach advantage, youth, and better competition (Askarov, Formiga). He questions Royval's durability after taking damage against Kai Kara-France and believes Moreno will outclass him with a jab from the outside.

Big Brady picks Joaquin Buckley to win by first-round knockout. He notes Buckley has better experience and competition, while Wright's early wins were against low-level opponents. He thinks Buckley's pressure and the small cage will be key, and Wright doesn't like being hit.

Daniel picks Buckley, citing his aggressive pressure and power. He notes the '50k curse' but believes Buckley's forward pressure will break Wright's karate style. He also mentions Buckley's wrestling and durability, though he expects a tougher fight than some anticipate.

The host picks Jordan Wright to win by first or second round KO, despite acknowledging it's a surprising pick. He thinks the line on Buckley is skewed by his viral knockout, and that Wright has a size advantage and better game plan. He recommends against parlaying Buckley.

The MMA Guru picks Joaquin Buckley to win by TKO (haymaker) in the first round. He notes Wright is moving down from light heavyweight and will have an adjustment period, and that Wright's competition has been weak. He expects Buckley to catch Wright with a big hook early.

Big Brady leans Antonina Shevchenko to win by decision. He thinks Shevchenko has a big advantage on the feet, but is concerned about her takedown defense after being dominated by Chookagian. He notes Lipski could win with a wrestling-heavy game plan, but Shevchenko is the pick if it stays standing.

Daniel picks Lipski as an underdog, citing Antonina's poor takedown defense and one-dimensional striking. He believes Lipski has paid her dues and can exploit Antonina's ground game. He notes Lipski's recent submission win shows improvement and that the fight should be a pick'em.

The host picks Antonina Shevchenko to win by decision. He believes she is cleaner on the feet and has a size advantage, and that Lipski will be outgunned on the feet and unable to have success on the ground. He notes the line is fair but not compelling to bet.

The MMA Guru picks Antonina Shevchenko to win by unanimous decision (30-27). He believes Shevchenko's losses are to better competition (Chookagian, Modafferi) and that Lipski doesn't shoot enough takedowns to pose a threat. He expects Shevchenko to outland Lipski on the feet and win every round.

Big Brady picks Daniel Rodriguez to win by second-round knockout. He highlights Rodriguez's volume, power, and durability, while noting Dalby has been dropped in four of six UFC fights and has questionable chin. He also mentions Rodriguez's good ground game and takedown defense.

Daniel picks Rodriguez, citing his solid boxing, ability to survive adversity, and finishing instincts. He notes Dalby has a chin issue and has been dropped repeatedly. He expects Rodriguez to land a fight-ending blow after a competitive early going.

The host picks Daniel Rodriguez to win by first or second round KO. He notes Rodriguez has crisper hands and better durability, while Dalby has been hurt before and may struggle to get takedowns. He expects Rodriguez to time Dalby's entries and land big shots.

The MMA Guru picks Daniel Rodriguez to win by TKO in the first or second round. He criticizes Dalby's recent performance against Jesse Ronson and believes Rodriguez can fight going backwards and piece Dalby apart. He notes Rodriguez's ability to come back from being hurt.

Big Brady picks Jared Gooden to win by first-round knockout. He notes Jouban is 38 and has chin issues, while Gooden is younger and packs power. He thinks the small cage helps Gooden close distance, but if Gooden doesn't finish early, he may slow down.

Daniel picks his friend Jared Gooden, citing his forward pressure, volume striking, and youth advantage. He believes Jouban is aging and his chin is diminishing, and that Gooden's improved mindset and training will lead to a first-round knockout. He dismisses criticism of Gooden's past losses as due to weight class issues.

The host picks Alan Jouban but is not confident due to his age (38) and layoff. He thinks Jouban's durability is underrated and he has more ways to win, but is scared of the layoff and the hungry newcomer. He recommends staying away from betting this fight.

The MMA Guru picks Jared Gooden to win by KO in the first round. He cites Jouban's long layoff (since April 2019), age (38), and history of being KO'd. Gooden is younger, more active, and has power. He expects Gooden to crack Jouban early.

Big Brady picks Kyle Daukaus to win by decision. He notes Daukaus has excellent takedowns and ground control, while Stoltzfus can be taken down. He thinks Daukaus will have success on the mat but may not finish, as Stoltzfus has never been submitted or knocked out.

Daniel picks Stoltzfus as an underdog, believing he is underrated. He notes Daukaus has better striking and wrestling but Stoltzfus is a submission specialist with good wrestling. He thinks the line is too wide and that Stoltzfus has a real chance, especially if the fight goes deep.

The host picks Kyle Daukaus to win via submission, likely in the second round. He notes Daukaus has a reach advantage and strong jiu-jitsu, while Stoltzfus has takedown defense issues. He thinks the line is a bit wide but likes Daukaus to get it done on the ground.

The MMA Guru picks Kyle Daukaus to win by unanimous decision (29-28). He believes Daukaus has faced better competition and has superior grappling scrambles, as shown against Brendan Allen. He doubts Stoltzfus can submit Daukaus and expects a competitive back-and-forth fight where Daukaus edges out the rounds.

Big Brady picks Louis Cosce to win by first-round knockout. He notes Cosce has finished all his fights in the first round and is an absolute killer, while Palatnikov's competition level is suspect. He believes Cosce will stuff takedowns and dominate on the feet.

Daniel picks Louis Cosce, citing his explosive power and first-round knockout streak. He notes that Palatnikov has been past the first round but Cosce is the harder hitter. He hesitates on the heavy chalk because Cosce hasn't proven he can go past the first round.

The host believes Louis Cosce will continue his trend of first-round finishes, as he has finished all his fights in the first round. He notes that Sasha Palatnikov is hittable and crumbles under pressure, and that Cosce is stronger and quicker. He recommends the under 1.5 rounds as a better bet than the moneyline at -370.

The MMA Guru picks Louis Cosce to win by first-round TKO. He notes that Cosce is being spoon-fed an easier opponent than his Contender Series fight, and that Palatnikov has been KO'd twice by lesser fighters. He trusts Cosce to jump to the next level and finish early.