UFC on ESPN: Whittaker vs. Till

Big Brady picks Whittaker because he believes Whittaker is the more talented fighter and will throw more volume. He notes Whittaker's chin is a concern after the Adesanya KO, but thinks if it holds up, Whittaker runs away with it. He is not impressed with Till's recent win over Gastelum and sees Till as basic. He predicts a decision win for Whittaker.

Daniel leans Whittaker, citing his power and strength, but acknowledges Till's late-round success and hunger. He notes Whittaker's defensive flaws and Till's limited but effective striking. He sees a possible second-round knockout for Whittaker but is not confident, calling it a dog-or-pass fight from a betting perspective.

Whittaker is the better overall striker with superior movement and combination punching. He will be able to cover range effectively and land blitzes, while Till may struggle with Whittaker's speed and variety. Whittaker's chin is not completely shot despite the Adesanya KO, and he should shake off rust and finish Till in the third or fourth round.

The MMA Guru picks Darren Till, arguing that elite strikers beat Robert Whittaker, citing Whittaker's losses to Israel Adesanya and Stephen Thompson. He notes Whittaker's chin is a concern after wars with Romero and the Adesanya KO, while Till has had time to recover and adjust to middleweight. He predicts Till will catch Whittaker lunging in with a left hand and finish him by TKO in the second round.

Big Brady picks Shogun because he expects him to be the busier fighter and use takedowns, as he did in their previous fights. He acknowledges that Lil Nog has power and could knock Shogun out, especially given Shogun's poor performance against Paul Craig. He calls the fight ugly and says he wouldn't bet it, but leans Shogun by decision.

Daniel leans Shogun because he has beaten Little Nog twice before and can revert to takedowns. He notes both are on the decline but Shogun's low kicks and takedowns should be the difference. He advises passing at the betting window and just enjoying the fight.

Shogun is six years younger and has shown better cardio, going three rounds with younger fighters and even finishing some late. Nogueira has been inactive and finished early in recent fights. Expect a tentative fight with clinching and takedowns, likely going over 1.5 rounds. Shogun should win by decision or late stoppage.

The MMA Guru picks Shogun Rua, believing he still has something left, while Nogueira looks damaged and stiff from his career. He notes Nogueira is coming off a KO loss and shows signs of CTE. He predicts Shogun will get a TKO in the second round, but acknowledges both are old and anything can happen.

Big Brady picks Gustafsson based on better cardio, speed, and striking advantage. He is concerned about Werdum's size and potential takedowns, but notes Gustafsson has good takedown defense. He calls the fight weird and says the line is too wide to parlay, predicting a decision win for Gustafsson.

Daniel is confident in Werdum as a plus-270 underdog. He argues the line is off because Gustafsson looked poor in his last two fights and retired after the Anthony Smith loss. He believes Werdum's takedowns and submission threat will be decisive, especially if the fight gets dirty and grimy. He notes Werdum had a full camp this time unlike his last fight.

Gustafsson has the striking advantage and good takedown defense, but there are too many question marks about his mental state after retirement and his layoff. Werdum looked poor against Oleynik and is 42. The under 2.5 rounds is attractive, but the moneyline is a pass due to uncertainty.

The MMA Guru picks Alexander Gustafsson to win by TKO, despite concerns about Gustafsson looking overweight and happy in interviews. He believes Gustafsson's speed and reach advantage will be too much for Werdum, who looked deflated after his USADA suspension. He predicts an early TKO.

Big Brady picks Rodriguez because of her huge striking advantage and high output. He notes Esparza's path is takedowns, but thinks Rodriguez can be active off her back and get up. He placed a bet on Rodriguez at -160 and predicts a third-round knockout, though he acknowledges Esparza could win if she controls on the ground.

Daniel is confident in Marina Rodriguez, citing her striking advantage, length, and viciousness. He believes she will stuff takedowns and light up Esparza on the feet, similar to Joanna's win over Esparza. He notes Rodriguez's improvements in getting up from takedowns and her mental toughness. He sees a dominant decision win.

Esparza is the superior wrestler and grappler, and Rodriguez has shown clear flaws in takedown defense. Esparza's chain wrestling and ability to secure takedowns should be the difference. Rodriguez has a striking advantage but Esparza can nullify it with relentless grappling. Esparza likely wins by decision.

The MMA Guru picks Carla Esparza, arguing that Marina Rodriguez has failed in her step-ups in competition, while Esparza is a better version of Tecia Torres, stronger and more smothering. He believes Esparza's wrestling and pressure will be too much for Rodriguez.

Big Brady picks Paul Craig because he has better cardio and can survive Antigulov's early storm. He notes Antigulov gasses quickly and hasn't been out of the first round since 2014. He expects a finish inside the distance and predicts Craig by submission. He says the fight is ugly and not worth betting either side.

Daniel leans Paul Craig because Antigulov fades after the first round and Craig is a comeback finisher. He notes Craig's improving stand-up but poor takedown defense. He thinks if it goes past the first round, Antigulov's gas tank issues favor Craig. However, he admits laying chalk on Craig is sketchy.

Antigulov has terrible cardio and will likely gas quickly if he doesn't get an early finish. Craig is durable and dangerous off his back with submissions. The fight is expected to end inside 1.5 rounds due to Antigulov's aggressive but low-gas style. Craig can capitalize on Antigulov's fatigue and secure a submission.

The MMA Guru picks Paul Craig, citing his youth, size, and grappling skills. He notes Antigulov is coming off two TKO losses and a long layoff, and is not a big light heavyweight. He predicts Craig will rock Antigulov and then submit him, finishing in the first or second round.

Big Brady picks Sobotta as an underdog because he believes Sobotta has a huge ground advantage with his BJJ. He thinks the fight will hit the ground and Sobotta can win there, either by submission or decision. He is concerned about Oliveira's power but thinks Sobotta's striking has improved and the gap is not large.

Daniel picks Sobotta for the upset, citing his jiu-jitsu and improved boxing. He believes Sobotta can take Oliveira's back and submit him if he avoids early damage. He acknowledges Oliveira's physicality and danger but thinks Sobotta's path to victory via submission is viable. He is worried about Oliveira bullying Sobotta early.

Sobotta is the more technical fighter with superior grappling and submission skills. Oliveira is wild and has a poor gas tank, often fading in the third round. Sobotta can take Oliveira down and submit him late, or outpoint him on the feet. The line should be closer, and Sobotta offers value at plus money.

The MMA Guru picks Alex Oliveira, noting his activity and momentum from a win over Max Griffin. He points out that Sobotta hasn't fought since March 2018 and lost to Leon Edwards. He also mentions Oliveira's reach advantage and jiu-jitsu, and believes Oliveira will get the job done.

Big Brady is very confident in Chimaev, noting his dominance in his last fight and the massive size advantage. He says McKee is small for the weight class and has been taken down by low-level opponents. He predicts a first-round knockout via ground and pound. He advises against parlaying the moneyline but suggests using 'wins inside the distance' instead.

Daniel is confident in Chimaev, believing his takedown defense and overall game are too much for McKee. He notes Chimaev looked amazing in his debut but cautions that John Phillips is not a top test. He expects Chimaev to run through McKee and thinks the line is warranted.

Chimaev is a massive welterweight with incredible wrestling and ground-and-pound. McKee is a striker with poor takedown defense and no answers off his back. Chimaev will take him down immediately and finish within the first round via TKO or submission. The under 1.5 rounds is the play.

Big Brady picks Herbert as his first underdog of the card, citing Herbert's speed, volume, and youth. He thinks Trinaldo is on the decline and doesn't throw enough. He is concerned about Trinaldo's takedowns but notes Trinaldo rarely uses them. He predicts Herbert wins a decision by outworking Trinaldo.

Daniel leans Trinaldo but acknowledges Herbert's knockout power. He thinks Trinaldo will mix in takedowns and have success on the mat if Herbert can't knock him out. He notes Trinaldo's experience and toughness but also that Herbert's right hand is a real threat. He sees Trinaldo winning a decision.

Herbert is a good striker with movement and kicks, and Trinaldo is 41 and may start to slow down. Herbert can manage distance and avoid Trinaldo's power shots. However, Trinaldo has power and experience, making this a tough fight to cap. Herbert likely wins by decision if he stays safe.

The MMA Guru picks Jai Herbert, citing his good wins, training with Leon Edwards, and his amateur career showing seriousness. He notes Herbert has quick KOs and a gas tank for later rounds. He predicts Herbert will have big moments and win a decision, as Trinaldo has never been TKO'd and has a good chin.

Big Brady picks Dalby because of his wrestling advantage, expecting him to control Ronson against the cage or on the ground. He notes Ronson has lost three split decisions in the UFC and hasn't been impressive outside. He predicts a decision win for Dalby and considers him a parlay piece.

Daniel picks Dalby by decision, citing his well-rounded MMA game, high fight IQ, and ability to outwork opponents. He notes Dalby's chinny nature and tendency to charge in, but believes he will switch stances, press Ronson against the cage, and outwork him. He thinks Ronson is a good striker but struggles in decisions.

Dalby is a larger welterweight grappler who will have a significant size and grappling advantage over Ronson, who is a lightweight moving up. Ronson is a good striker but poor grappler, and Dalby can take him down and control him. However, the line is too steep at -255, so no bet recommended.

The MMA Guru is confident in Nicolas Dalby, calling Jesse Ronson a 'free win' and noting that Ronson has lost every step up in competition. He praises Dalby's recent wins and believes he will rock Ronson on the feet and then submit him, predicting a rear-naked choke in the first or second round.

Big Brady picks Aspinall, citing his power, BJJ black belt, and training with high-level partners. He is concerned about Collier's three-year layoff and move to heavyweight. He wants to see weigh-ins but thinks Aspinall has the advantage everywhere. He predicts a second-round knockout, noting Collier may gas.

Daniel leans Aspinall but is not fully convinced. He notes Aspinall's power and well-roundedness but questions his takedown defense and experience. He thinks Collier could be competitive if he shows up in shape, but the three-year layoff is a concern. He sees potential for a stoppage for Aspinall or a close fight.

Collier has better cardio and durability, and Aspinall's gas tank is unproven beyond the first round. Collier can survive the initial onslaught and take over in later rounds with takedowns and control. However, Collier has a long layoff and Aspinall could finish early. Collier by decision is the pick.

The MMA Guru is high on Tom Aspinall, praising his quick hands and footwork for a heavyweight. He notes Aspinall had a full camp while Collier is on short notice and not a big heavyweight. He predicts a first-round TKO, citing Aspinall's training with Tyson Fury and his overall skills.

Big Brady picks Evloev, impressed by his striking improvement and wrestling. He thinks Grundy is overhyped after the Nad Narimani KO and notes Grundy doesn't throw enough volume. He expects the wrestling to cancel out and Evloev to win by decision based on volume. He plans to bet if the line gets closer to -175.

Daniel picks Grundy for the upset, citing his size, power, and physicality. He believes Evloev may struggle with Grundy's strength and could tire in later rounds. He notes Evloev's volume but thinks Grundy's power and wrestling could be the difference. He thinks the line should be closer.

Evloev has superior chain wrestling and cardio, and his striking is improving. Grundy is a one-dimensional wrestler who may struggle to get takedowns against Evloev's wrestling. Evloev can outwork Grundy over three rounds, mixing in takedowns and striking. A late finish is possible but decision is more likely.

The MMA Guru picks Movsar Evloev due to his undefeated record, better competition, youth, and size advantage. He questions Mike Grundy's level of competition and notes that Grundy's win over Nad Narimani was not dominant and had an early stoppage. He predicts a close decision, 29-28, with Grundy stealing a round.

Big Brady picks Boser, citing his speed and leg kicks. He thinks Boser is the better striker and will attack Pessoa's lead leg. He is concerned about the quick turnaround and jet lag but still expects Boser to win a decision. He notes Pessoa has never been finished by KO.

Daniel picks Boser, citing his speed, sharpness, and striking knowledge. He thinks Pessoa is wild and sloppy, leaving openings. He notes Boser's quick turnaround but believes if Boser doesn't back up, he should find a knockout. He thinks the line is a bit high but still favors Boser.

Pessoa moves well for a heavyweight, has solid Muay Thai, and good cardio. The line should be much closer; Pessoa offers value at plus money. He can check leg kicks and match Boser's output. Pessoa likely wins a decision or possibly a late finish.

The MMA Guru is sold on Tanner Boser after his impressive KO of Felipe Lins, noting Boser's activity and improved shape. He acknowledges Pessoa has a good chin and doesn't get TKO'd, so he predicts a unanimous decision win for Boser. He sees no way Pessoa wins but admits Pessoa has a chance.

Big Brady picks Kianzad because she is faster and has a striking advantage. He notes Correia has fought better competition but is stiff and slow. He expects a close split decision and says he probably won't bet it.

Daniel picks Correia, citing her experience, toughness, and power. He thinks Kianzad may start well but fade, and Correia can win the later rounds. He notes Correia has fought the best and been competitive, while Kianzad's level of competition is lower. He expects a close decision.

Kianzad is the longer, more polished striker and can mix in takedowns. Correia is flawed technically and has lost to higher-level competition. Kianzad should outpoint Correia over three rounds, though the line offers little value at -155.

The MMA Guru picks Pannie Kianzad based on physical attributes like size and reach, and her recent clear win over Jessica-Rose Clark. He acknowledges both fighters have questionable losses but believes Kianzad's experience and physical advantages will lead to a unanimous decision victory. He is not highly confident, calling it a lean.

Big Brady picks Emeev because of his takedown and grappling advantage. He thinks the fight won't stay on the feet and Emeev will control Stolze against the cage. He predicts a decision win and considers Emeev a parlay piece.

Daniel is confident in Emeev, citing his clinch mastery and ability to win a lopsided decision. He thinks Stolze is not ready for this level and will be overwhelmed by Emeev's pressure and grappling. He expects Emeev to tie him up, calf kick, and win easily.

Emeev is efficient with his striking, gets in and out, and doesn't get hit much. Stolze is making his UFC debut against a tough veteran. Emeev should win a decision, but the line is too steep to bet.

The MMA Guru favors Ramazan Emeev due to his better resume and experience, noting that Emeev had a close fight with Anthony Rocco Martin and a win over Sam Alvi. He dismisses Niklas Stolze as a fighter who has failed in his big opportunities and is not ready for the UFC. He predicts Emeev will win by unanimous decision, possibly with a finish in the third round since Stolze is on short notice.

Big Brady picks Wood because he is the better overall fighter, especially in wrestling and grappling. He notes Castañeda has been taken down and controlled easily. He is concerned about Wood's chin after the Dodson KO but thinks Wood will fight smarter. He predicts a second-round submission.

Daniel is confident in Wood, citing his speed, sharpness, and overall superiority. He thinks Castañeda is being thrown in too soon and Wood will get a finish somewhere along the way. He notes Wood's chinny reputation but believes he is too much for Castañeda.

Wood is the more technical striker with better movement and versatility. Castañeda is hittable and tends to relax under pressure. Wood should piece him up and eventually secure a submission in the third round. However, the price is too high to bet.

The MMA Guru believes Nathaniel Wood will bounce back from his loss to John Dodson, noting that Wood showed he could compete with Dodson and that the stoppage may have saved his career. He sees Castañeda as not quite ready for prime time, having lost his two big step-up fights. He predicts Wood will win by submission, specifically a D'Arce choke in the second round, citing Wood's recent trend of getting submissions in the UFC.