UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy

Daniel picks Conor McGregor to win by knockout, likely in the first round. He notes that McGregor's left hand is a huge factor and that Cerrone has historically folded under big lights. However, he questions McGregor's motivation and fatigue issues, but believes this is a tune-up fight for McGregor.

The host picks Conor McGregor to win by first-round KO, citing McGregor's range, speed, in-and-out movement, and left hand as key advantages. He believes Cerrone will struggle to deal with these attributes and that McGregor will set up a trap and land a clean left hand. However, he notes that if Cerrone's odds reach +300, he might place a small bet on Cerrone due to value, but his official prediction remains McGregor by first-round KO.

The host strongly favors Conor McGregor, citing his first-round focus and accuracy against Donald Cerrone's lack of head movement and slow starts. He notes Cerrone's recent KO loss to Justin Gaethje and the short turnaround (4 months), which raises chin concerns. He believes McGregor's takedown defense is underrated and that Cerrone's wrestling won't be effective. He predicts a first-round KO by McGregor.

Daniel picks Raquel Pennington to edge out a close decision. He notes that Pennington is the more active fighter moving forward and that Holm has gone 4-5 since their first fight while Pennington is 5-2. He also mentions that Pennington is younger at 31 vs Holm pushing 40.

The host is confident in Holly Holm, having already placed 2.5 units at -122. He believes Holm won the first fight easily and that her counter-striking, fight IQ, and power left head kick will be too much for Pennington. He argues that Holm is better at getting off the cage and landing damaging shots, while Pennington's forward movement plays into Holm's game. He dismisses concerns about Holm's recent record, noting she lost to elite fighters, and sees Pennington as a step below.

The host picks Raquel Pennington, citing her thickness and ability to take damage, as seen in her performance against Amanda Nunes. He criticizes Holly Holm's damage-taking ability and age (38), suggesting her prime is over. He predicts Pennington wins by decision.

Daniel picks Aleksei Oleinik via rear-naked choke finish, but admits he's been going back and forth on this fight. He notes that Oleinik has 40+ submissions and is a total badass, while Greene has power and length but questionable grappling. He says someone is most likely getting finished.

The host picks Maurice Greene to win by TKO, likely in the second round, but expresses low confidence, stating he doesn't trust Greene. He notes Greene's speed and footwork as advantages, but worries about Oleinik's jiu-jitsu and the possibility of both fighters gassing. He sees the fight as risky and is not planning to bet on it.

The host is surprised this fight is on the main card but picks Maurice Greene. He notes Greene's size and difficulty to take down, and Oleinik's age (42) and history of KO losses. He predicts Greene will land a good combo on Oleinik's chin and finish him in the first round.

Daniel picks Ode' Osbourne to finish Brian Kelleher early. He notes Osbourne's athleticism, speed, and 7-inch reach advantage, as well as his slick jiu-jitsu. He believes Kelleher's confidence was destroyed after the Lineker loss and subsequent knockout by Montel Jackson, and that Osbourne will touch Kelleher's chin and put him away.

The host briefly mentions picking Ode' Osbourne over Brian Kelleher in quick picks, but admits he hasn't looked into the fight much and may do so later. No detailed reasoning is provided.

The host notes that Brian Kelleher has been knocked out recently and is getting older, while Ode' Osbourne is taller, rangier, and younger. Despite Osbourne's record being only 6-2, the host is willing to bet on him to get the job done.

Daniel picks Carlos Diego Ferreira to win, likely by decision or submission. He highlights Ferreira's superior volume, boxing, wrestling, and jiu-jitsu, noting that Pettis has a history of quitting when pressured. He believes Ferreira will break Pettis with pressure and get his arm raised.

The host is very confident in Diego Ferreira, planning to bet 4 units at -230. He highlights Ferreira's pressure, consistent one-two combinations, and improvements, contrasting with Pettis's tendency to conform to opponents' pace and gas out. He believes Pettis's only path to victory is a flash knockout, as Ferreira is superior on the ground. He notes that Ferreira's loss to Mairbek Taisumov was due to a hard shot, but Pettis doesn't hit as hard.

The host strongly favors Carlos Diego Ferreira, citing Pettis's history of breaking bones in fights (hand, foot, rib) and the wear and tear on his body. He notes Ferreira's dominant decision win over Mairbek Taisumov and his clean record with only two losses. He cannot bet on Pettis due to his fragility and predicts Ferreira wins by clear-cut decision.

Daniel picks Maycee Barber to knock out Roxanne Modafferi in the first round. He praises Barber's punching power and her work at Rufus with Duke and GM3. He notes that Modafferi, despite her recent win over Shevchenko, was dominated by Jennifer Maia and is past her prime.

The host picks Maycee Barber to win but expects a tough fight, noting that Roxanne Modafferi will survive for at least 7.5 minutes. He plans to bet the over 1.5 rounds rather than Barber's moneyline, as he believes Barber wins but the fight goes over.

The host initially picks Maycee Barber but then switches to Roxanne Modafferi, reasoning that Modafferi is bigger and stronger and will hold Barber against the cage for three rounds. He notes that in female fights, holding against the cage often works, and predicts Barber loses by decision.

Daniel picks Sodiq Yusuff to win, likely by knockout. He highlights Yusuff's pure Nigerian power, calf kicks, and conditioning. He notes that Fili has been wobbled before and doesn't check leg kicks, and that Yusuff's fight IQ and calmness in the pocket will be key.

The host briefly mentions picking Sodiq Yusuff over Andre Fili in quick picks, but provides no detailed analysis. He later comments that the fight could be a letdown despite hype, and considers the under 2.5 rounds but is not sure if he'll bet it.

The host initially leans toward Sodiq Yusuff but changes his mind, picking Andre Fili as an underdog. He believes Fili will use his wrestling, training at Team Alpha Male, to take Yusuff down and win. He notes that Yusuff's hype is unproven and that Fili's wrestling advantage is too juicy to pass up.

Daniel picks Askar Askarov by split decision. He notes that Askarov has a similar scrambling style to Elliott but is younger and more motivated. He criticizes Elliott's recent performances, including a first-round loss to Deiveson Figueiredo, and believes Askarov wants it more.

The host briefly mentions picking Tim Elliott over Askar Askarov in quick picks, but provides no detailed reasoning. Later, during the guest segment, the guest discusses the fight in more depth, but the host does not add his own analysis.

The host criticizes Tim Elliott's motivation and negative attitude, referencing his behavior on The Ultimate Fighter. He believes Askar Askarov will get the job done, noting that Askarov's previous fight against Brandon Moreno was close and that Moreno is a beast, implying Askarov is competitive at a high level.

Daniel picks Nasrat Haqparast, noting his speed and left hand power. He acknowledges Dober's experience and toughness but believes Haqparast is the faster, higher-ceiling fighter. He warns that Dober could sneak up with a knockout, but leans toward Haqparast.

The host picks Nasrat Haqparast to win by knockout, agreeing with his guest's analysis. He praises Haqparast's speed, angles, and fight IQ, noting that he downloads opponents in the first round and finishes in the second. He believes Haqparast has top-five potential and that Dober will be forced to strike, leading to a finish. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds at +160.

The host acknowledges Drew Dober's power but picks Nasrat Haqparast, citing Haqparast's impressive win over Joaquim Silva. He predicts Haqparast will get a finish around the second round, similar to his shutout victory against Silva.

Daniel picks Aleksa Camur by split decision, but is very hesitant. He notes that Camur has power and athleticism but has faced low-level competition, while Ledet has seen a higher level of the sport. He mentions that contender series winners win 60% of the time in their UFC debut, but advises not going big until Camur proves himself.

The host criticizes the favoritism shown to Contender Series guys but picks Aleksa Camur because Justin Ledet has been knocked out twice in a row. He believes Camur, being younger and stronger, will land a knockout on Ledet's suspect chin, predicting a first-round finish.

Daniel picks JJ Aldrich to win by unanimous decision. He notes that Aldrich has fought better competition, has a brown belt in jiu-jitsu, and cleaner boxing. He criticizes Mazo's debut performance and believes Aldrich's experience and pairing will be key.

The host briefly mentions picking JJ Aldrich over Sabina Mazo in quick picks, but provides no detailed reasoning.

The host dismisses this fight as unimportant, stating 'no one cares' and quickly picks JJ Aldridge to win without any detailed reasoning. The pick is based on a lack of interest rather than technical analysis.