Drew Dober

Big Brady picks Drew Dober as a slight underdog over Michael Johnson, but with very low confidence. He notes Johnson is inconsistent and his recent wins are against weak competition, while Dober's chin may be fading after brutal KO losses. However, Brady thinks Dober hits harder and could catch Johnson, predicting a second-round KO. He acknowledges the fight is a toss-up and trusts neither fighter.

Cody picks Johnson, citing his better speed, boxing, and reach advantage. He notes Dober's recent knockout losses and regression, while Johnson is on a three-fight win streak. He expects Johnson to win by knockout or decision.

Connor picks Johnson, citing Dober's clear decline in recent fights, especially the Kyle Propolek fight where Dober looked slow and unfocused. He notes that Johnson has maintained a consistent level and still has sharp counterpunching and good first-level takedown defense. Connor believes Dober's durability has faded and his pressure style leaves him open to counters, which Johnson can exploit.

Daniel Vreeland leans toward Drew Dober as an underdog, expecting an early scare followed by a late knockout. He notes that Michael Johnson's speed fades with age, and Dober's durability and power can turn the tide. Vreeland compares it to Dober's fight against Bobby Green, where he took punishment early and finished later.

James picks Michael Johnson because he is faster and hits just as hard as Dober, and he expects Johnson to land first. He notes Dober's declining durability and hittability, making him vulnerable to a knockout. James predicts a KO finish, likely by Johnson, and suggests betting on the fight ending via KO.

Johnson is the better technical striker with cleaner counters. Dober is explosive but vulnerable to counters. Johnson's speed and power should allow him to land a big shot and put Dober away. Johnson by knockout.

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Johnson due to his power, volume, and footwork. He mentions Dober's durability issues and Johnson's ability to fight to his opponent's level. He expects Johnson to either knock Dober out or win a decision.

The MMA Guru picks Drew Dober, believing he will walk through Johnson's shots and land a KO. He compares it to the Bobby Green fight and predicts a second-round TKO. He mentions Dober's whiteboard and obsession with finishing Johnson.

Angelo picks Drew Dober to win, citing his technical striking and ability to grapple if needed. He notes Dober's recent chin issues but believes Kyle Prepolec is not a UFC-caliber fighter and lacks power. He expects Dober to find a finish, making him a good fantasy play at $9,400.

Big Brady is concerned about Drew Dober's age, fight mileage, and recent chin issues, but believes the skill gap is massive in Dober's favor. He notes Prepolec has never been knocked out and is likely more durable at this stage. He picks Dober by decision, staying away from the -550 price.

Cody picks Prepolec, citing value. He notes Dober's chin is declining and he has been knocked out recently. Prepolec has never been knocked out and has a full camp. Cody believes Prepolec can catch Dober and win by knockout, but admits it's a value play.

Connor picks Drew Dober but is hesitant, acknowledging that Dober seems to have lost his confidence and timing after the Manuel Torres loss. He notes that Prepolec is a tough slugger who has never been knocked out, and that Dober's usual brawling approach may not work anymore. However, Connor still expects Dober to win because Prepolec is a step down in competition.

James picks Dober to win but notes value on Prepolec as an underdog. He questions Dober's recent chin issues after knockouts by Jean Silva and Matt Frevola, while Prepolec has never been knocked out. James expects a striking battle where Prepolec could land a head kick, but ultimately favors Dober's speed and experience.

The host is not a big fan of Dober at the super chalky line given his recent form and Prepolec being a striker himself. However, he still thinks Dober is the better all-around fighter and should mix striking and grappling to win on the scorecards, provided his durability holds up.

Paul leans Prepolec, agreeing with Cody on value. He notes Dober's durability is a question and Prepolec has power. Paul says he'll have a small bet on Prepolec but has low conviction.

The MMA Guru picks Drew Dober over Kyle Prepolec. He acknowledges Dober's recent KO loss to Manuel Torres but attributes that to Torres being a genetic freak with nasty power. He believes Dober still has it and will beat Prepolec easily, noting Prepolec shouldn't be in the UFC. He predicts a TKO in the second round.

Angelo picks Jean Silva, having bet on him at +105. He believes Silva is the better striker and would win with a full camp, but cautions about the quick turnaround (fighting two weeks after UFC 303) and moving up in weight. He notes that Silva opened as an underdog but has become the favorite, and advises that betting at plus money was good but at current minus odds may not be worth it. He acknowledges Drew Dober's durability and chin.

Cody picks Jean Silva, impressed by his power and durability shown against Charles Jourdain. He believes Dober's chin is declining and that Silva's pressure and power will be too much. He notes Silva's camp at Fighting Nerds and his ability to generate power from any position.

Daniel Vreeland picks Drew Dober over Jean Silva. He cites Dober's experience, power, and size advantage as a true lightweight, while Silva is moving up from featherweight. He notes Dober's status as a lightweight KO king and that he lives in Colorado, giving him an altitude advantage. He acknowledges Silva's impressive performances but thinks the quick turnaround and elevation may affect him. He leans with the veteran Dober.

Drew Dober is the more technical striker. If he can stay competitive early, Jean Silva will slow down due to altitude and whiffing. Dober's solid striking defense will allow him to turn up the pace and potentially put Silva away in the second or third round.

Angelo picks Drew Dober, trusting his chin and brawling ability. He notes that Moicano is chinny and hasn't fought in a year. He believes Dober can bait Moicano into a firefight and knock him out. He has a half-unit bet on Dober at +125.

Big Brady picks Renato Moicano to win by first-round submission. He notes that Moicano has a huge advantage on the ground, and Dober has been submitted multiple times. However, Moicano sometimes falls in love with striking, which would be dangerous against Dober's power. Brady thinks Moicano will take Dober down and submit him, but acknowledges it's a 50-50 fight.

Cody picks Moicano, citing Dober's declining durability and Moicano's superior grappling and angles. He notes Dober's chin is fading after the Fialho knockout, and Moicano can set up takedowns with his jab. He sees Moicano by submission as a strong prop.

Moicano has a tremendous BJJ black belt and should be able to drag Dober to the ground and sink in a rear naked choke. However, the host is hesitant due to Moicano's long layoff and knee surgery at 34 years old. Dober has power and good cardio, but is at a skill disadvantage on the ground. The host expects the fight not to go to decision, with Moicano winning by submission.

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Moicano. He highlights Dober's reckless pressure and suspect takedown defense, while Moicano's jab and movement should set up takedowns. He notes Moicano's losses are to elite fighters, and Dober has never been at that level.

Angelo picks Drew Dober confidently, citing his technical kickboxing, power, and willingness to brawl. He notes that Ricky Glenn struggles when opponents bring a brawl. However, he expresses concern about Dober's chin after his knockout loss to Matt Frevola, wondering if it's the beginning of the end. He has Dober in a parlay with Kanako Murata, calling it risky.

Big Brady is very confident in Drew Dober, calling the matchup questionable and noting Ricky Glenn's poor performance in his last fight. He believes Glenn looks washed and has had long layoffs due to injuries. He expects Dober's power to be too much, predicting a first-round knockout despite Glenn only being knocked out once in his career.

Cody picks Dober but is hesitant, noting that Dober's chin may be compromised after his knockout loss to Matt Frevola. He acknowledges Glenn's sneaky power and low activity, but believes Dober's experience and power give him the edge. He does not like the line and sees better value elsewhere.

Daniel Levi picks Drew Dober, noting that Dober has always been a step ahead of Ricky Glenn in competition. He highlights Dober's power and his record for most KOs in the lightweight division, but also acknowledges Glenn's durability (only one KO loss in over 30 fights). He thinks Dober should get back on track but doesn't guarantee a KO.

Lucrative James predicts Dober wins by knockout in round two or three. He thinks the line is wide but Dober should get the finish. He notes Dober has good takedown defense but struggles to get back up if taken down. He believes Glenn is slowing down and Dober will eventually crack his chin.

Dober has power and speed advantages, and Glenn has durability concerns after a long layoff and surgeries. However, Dober is unreliable as a heavy favorite and Glenn can also knock him out. The fight likely ends inside the distance, with Dober getting a KO, but the odds are too high to trust. I predict Dober by KO but won't bet the moneyline.

Paul picks Ricky Glenn as a value play, citing Dober's recent knockout loss and Glenn's volatility. He notes that Glenn has sneaky power and could catch Dober. However, he is not highly confident, calling it a high-volatility fight. He prefers the under 2.5 rounds prop as a safer bet.

Angelo picks Matt Frevola, citing his recent knockout power and wrestling ability. He thinks Drew Dober's chin may finally be wearing out from accumulated damage, and that Frevola is smart enough to mix in takedowns rather than brawl. Angelo notes Frevola's confidence from back-to-back KO wins and believes he can land, shoot, and grind to victory. He has a quarter unit on Frevola at +185, calling it great odds for a guy with power and wrestling.

Big Brady picks Dober, expecting a stand-up war. He notes Frevola has power but tends to brawl, and Dober has one of the best chins in the UFC. He believes if Frevola stands and trades, Dober will knock him out. He predicts a first-round knockout, as Frevola has been knocked out before and Dober's durability is elite.

Cody emphasizes Dober's incredible chin and power, noting that Frevola has been knocked out by lesser punchers. He points out that Dober survived a knockdown from Terence McKinney and came back to win, while McKinney knocked out Frevola in 7 seconds. He expects Dober to land big shots and knock Frevola out, possibly under 1.5 rounds.

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Dober's pressure and ability to come back from being hurt make him the pick. He notes Frevola has been knocked out too many times and that Dober's losses come only to elite wrestlers. Connor sees Frevola's path as unlikely.

The host picks Drew Dober, believing his speed and explosiveness will allow him to land cleanly on Matt Frevola. He notes Dober's defensive grappling should nullify Frevola's takedowns. He expects a knockout and recommends the fight doesn't go to decision as the best bet.

Paul agrees, calling Dober's chin one of the best in the game. He notes Frevola's path is to grapple early, but at range Dober has a clear advantage. He predicts Dober knocks him out, as Frevola has struggled against power punchers.

The Guru picks Dober, calling Frevola a scrappier, worse version of Dober. He notes Dober's chin and ability to survive storms, while Frevola has been finished by lesser fighters. He expects a stand-up fight with Dober finishing Frevola in the first round via being more technical and tough in the pocket.

Angelo picks Drew Dober hesitantly, acknowledging that this is a very tough fight to call. He notes Dober has a great chin and power, while Bobby Green is more technically sound with higher volume and better defense. He worries that Dober might get touched up like in the Nazrat fight. He plans to stay away from betting on this fight due to low confidence.

Big Brady picks Bobby Green as an underdog, citing his recent impressive performances and high volume. He worries about Green's fight IQ and the judges, but thinks Green will outland Dober. He notes Dober will land the harder shots but Green's volume should win rounds. He also mentions Green could wrestle but likely won't. He predicts a close decision win for Green.

Cody picks Dober, believing his power and durability will sway judges. He notes Dober sits down on his punches and has good leg kicks. He thinks Green's flat-footed boxing style and head-shaking may not impress judges. He expects a close decision win for Dober and considers Dober by decision.

Green is a solid spot here. Dober has recency bias from two straight KOs, but Green is much more durable than those opponents (Rafael Alves, Terrence McKinney). Green will outstrike Dober, throw more combinations, and take home a decision. The line stayed around +130 to +135.

Paul leans Green, thinking he is a cleaner, more dynamic boxer who can win on volume. He notes Green has insane durability and will outland Dober. However, he is hesitant because Dober lands bigger shots and judges may favor damage. He says if the lines were flipped he wouldn't touch it, but at plus money he considers it.

Big Brady picks Drew Dober to win by second-round knockout. He trusts Dober's durability, cardio, and improved takedown defense. He notes Alves is dangerous on the ground but has not wrestled in his UFC fights. He expects a war with Dober's chin holding up and Alves fading.

Cody picks Dober, noting his excellent chin, durability, and ability to come back from adversity. He acknowledges that Alves is dangerous early with power and opportunistic grappling, but thinks Dober's Muay Thai, precision, and cardio will take over after the first round. He mentions that Dober is a gatekeeper who can handle guys like Alves. He also notes that Alves is a good pick for fantasy because he's a two-to-one underdog with upside.

Daniel bet on Alves at +200, citing his athleticism, explosiveness, and guillotine threat. He notes Alves has outperformed his price tag in both UFC fights, including dropping Damir Ismagulov. He worries about Dober's chin after the Terence McKinney fight and thinks Alves can finish early if he doesn't blow his load. He acknowledges Dober's durability and veteran savvy, but believes Alves' experience (30 pro fights) and power give him the edge. He calls it a high-variance fight but likes the value.

Preet took a half-unit on Alves to win in round one at +650, citing Alves' quick-starting style and Dober's rough weight cut. He notes Alves nearly finished Damir Ismagulov and finished Marty Casey early. He believes Alves will club and sub Dober, capitalizing on Dober's deteriorating durability.

Paul leans Dober but is scared because Alves is dangerous on the ground. He notes that Dober's takedown defense is not great and Alves is opportunistic with submissions. He thinks Dober should win the striking exchanges, but if it goes to the mat, Alves could snatch a submission. He mentions that Alves by submission is a prop to monitor.

Angelo picks Terrance McKinney despite being a short-notice replacement. He notes that McKinney is a Juco All-American wrestler with power and length, and that Brad Riddell was able to take Drew Dober down five times to win. He advises McKinney to wrestle rather than stand and bang. Angelo placed a 1-unit moneyline bet on McKinney at +185 and expects the line to move further.

Big Brady picks Drew Dober to win by second-round knockout. He highlights Dober's phenomenal chin, power, and durability, and thinks McKinney's best chance is an early finish. He doubts McKinney can submit Dober on short notice, and if McKinney wrestles, he may gas out (as seen in the Sean Woodson fight). He expects Dober to weather the early storm and knock McKinney out in the second round.

Cody is confident in Dober, citing his chin, power, and cardio advantage. He notes McKinney's early burst but believes Dober will weather it and take over in later rounds. He mentions Dober's takedown defense and ability to get up.

Daniel Levi picks Drew Dober but with hesitation, stating that his gut tells him it's a trap and he is staying away from betting. He thinks McKinney will take Dober down in the first round, but if Dober survives to the second and third, he can take over. Levi notes that Dober has improved his scrambling and escaped Islam Makhachev's armbar, but McKinney's momentum and power are concerns.

McKinney is a first-round finisher with power and submissions, and Dober has given up many takedowns recently. If McKinney doesn't finish early, Dober's cardio and striking could take over. However, the pick is McKinney via first-round submission, as his grappling and jiu-jitsu create sticky situations. The fight is expected to end inside the distance.

Paul is confident in Dober, citing his chin, power, and cardio. He notes McKinney's early threat but believes Dober will survive and finish late. He mentions Dober's takedown defense and ability to get up.

Big Brady picks Brad Riddell, emphasizing his better cardio, output, and potential takedown game against Dober's weak takedown defense (55%). He notes Riddell has secured a takedown in every UFC fight and expects him to win a close decision, possibly using wrestling to edge out rounds.

Cody leans towards Riddell as an underdog, citing his combination punching and volume. He thinks Riddell's takedown defense and get-up game will be enough to keep the fight standing, and that he will edge out a decision. He notes Dober's power but believes Riddell's slickness and output will win out.

Daniel Levi picks Brad Riddell by close decision, citing Riddell's better decision-making and counter-striking in later rounds. He acknowledges Dober's power and speed but thinks Riddell's kickboxing IQ and cardio will be key. He notes that Dober may fatigue and that Riddell has shown a second wind in fights. He calls it a 50-50 fight.

Dober has more experience and power, and he can mix in takedowns to disrupt Riddell's Muay Thai. Riddell is a talented striker but may struggle with Dober's pressure and clinch work. Dober's cardio and ability to land impactful shots should give him the edge. The fight likely goes to a decision, as both are durable.

Paul leans towards Dober but is not confident. He notes Dober's power and recent improvements, but acknowledges Riddell's skills. He sees it as a pick'em and is not betting it.

Big Brady picks Islam Makhachev confidently, citing Dober's 58% takedown defense and history of being submitted. He notes Dober's only path is a knockout, but Makhachev's game plan of clinching and taking down should prevail. He predicts a dominant decision win and mentions Makhachev as a parlay piece.

Daniel picks Islam Makhachev, citing his superior wrestling and takedowns, noting that Dober gets taken down even in wins. He acknowledges Dober's power but believes Makhachev will control the fight and win by decision or submission.

Makhachev has a huge grappling advantage and should be able to take Dober down at will. Dober's last three losses are by submission, and Makhachev is a high-level grappler. The host predicts a submission win in round one or two.

Big Brady picks Alexander Hernandez, citing recency bias in the line favoring Dober after two knockout wins. He believes Hernandez's wrestling is a glaring weakness for Dober and that Hernandez can take him down at will. He notes Dober is most dangerous in the first round and that Hernandez can control the fight on the ground, possibly winning by decision. He considers placing a bet at plus money.

Daniel Levi picks Drew Dober, emphasizing Dober's recent form, improved composure, and training with Justin Gaethje. He criticizes Hernandez's underwhelming performances since the Dariush knockout, calling him not a top-15 guy. He predicts Dober will knock out Hernandez, riding momentum from his team.

Daniel picks Nasrat Haqparast, noting his speed and left hand power. He acknowledges Dober's experience and toughness but believes Haqparast is the faster, higher-ceiling fighter. He warns that Dober could sneak up with a knockout, but leans toward Haqparast.

The host picks Nasrat Haqparast to win by knockout, agreeing with his guest's analysis. He praises Haqparast's speed, angles, and fight IQ, noting that he downloads opponents in the first round and finishes in the second. He believes Haqparast has top-five potential and that Dober will be forced to strike, leading to a finish. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds at +160.