UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana

Angelo picks Amanda Nunes but expresses hesitation. He notes that Nunes is the GOAT and should win, but questions her motivation due to her age, wealth, and new family. He thinks she may need to rely on wrestling, and hopes she is in shape. He acknowledges Irene Aldana's technical boxing and takedown defense, but believes Nunes' power and wrestling will prevail.

Big Brady picks Amanda Nunes to win by first-round submission. He believes Nunes is the far superior fighter and that Aldana's wins are against lower-level competition. Aldana struggled with Macy Chiasson and had her back taken. Even if Nunes is not fully motivated, she should dominate. He advises against betting Nunes due to the high price and potential motivation issues, but still picks her to finish early.

Cody picks Amanda Nunes, citing her wrestling game plan as the key. He notes that Holly Holm and Macy Chiasson both took Aldana down multiple times, and if Nunes sticks to that approach, it should be easy work. He acknowledges Aldana's boxing and lateral movement but believes Nunes's takedowns will neutralize her. He also mentions that Nunes's motivation and conditioning looked career-best in the Peña rematch.

Connor believes Nunes will win due to her athletic advantage and wrestling. He notes that Aldana is easy to take down and has a bad habit of pulling guard, similar to Dern. He expects Nunes to use her wrestling to control the fight, as she did against de Randamie.

Daniel Levi picks Amanda Nunes, citing that all film and stats point to Nunes having Aldana covered in every part of the game. He notes that the line is driven down by the first Pena fight, but Nunes dominated the rematch. He acknowledges Aldana's power and cleaner hands than Pena, but believes Nunes is the better fighter with more ways to win, including superior wrestling, Jiu-Jitsu, striking, and power. He sees the grappling gap as 10 worlds apart and expects Nunes to finish the fight.

James picks Amanda Nunes to win but is hesitant due to volatility. He notes Nunes is 35, talking about retirement, and had an off night against Pena. He thinks if Nunes is focused, she submits Aldana within three rounds. Aldana is a good boxer but weak elsewhere. James prefers not to bet the moneyline at -350, suggesting props instead. He predicts Nunes finishes in round four or five.

Nunes has a clear grappling advantage and should take Aldana down repeatedly. Aldana's best chance is a knockout on the feet, but Nunes will likely close the distance and control the fight on the mat. The over 2.5 rounds is likely as Aldana is tough off her back. Nunes by decision is the most probable outcome, though the moneyline is accurate.

Paul picks Amanda Nunes, acknowledging the line already factors in her inconsistency. He notes that Nunes has a minus-500 skill set but the line is discounted due to her personal life and past performances. He highlights that Aldana doesn't have big KO power, so if Nunes closes distance and gets takedowns, she should dominate. He suggests hedging by betting Nunes and then taking Aldana live after a couple rounds if Nunes fades.

The MMA Guru picks Amanda Nunes, acknowledging Aldana's KO power but citing a skill gap. He notes Aldana was schooled by Holly Holm and struggled against Macy Chiasson, while Nunes is a different level. He predicts Nunes will mix in takedowns and finish Aldana via standing TKO in the second round after some back-and-forth on the feet.

Zane agrees with Connor that Nunes will win. He emphasizes that Aldana's wrestling is a huge problem, as she gave up three takedowns to Macy Chiasson. He notes that Nunes is not a great wrestler but Aldana is worse, and her instinct to pull guard will be exploited.

Angelo picks Beneil Dariush, having placed 1.5 units on him at -125. He argues that Dariush is the better wrestler and grappler, and that his no-gi BJJ world championship credentials give him an edge. He believes Dariush can avoid Charles Oliveira's submission threats by staying controlled and not creating scrambles. He thinks Dariush's power and wrestling will be key.

Big Brady picks Beneil Dariush to finish Charles Oliveira in the first round. He notes that Dariush has the wrestling to dictate where the fight goes and has heavy hands. Oliveira is hittable and has been dropped in recent fights. Dariush's power and grappling should overwhelm Oliveira early. He predicts a knockdown followed by a submission or TKO.

Cody picks Beneil Dariush despite being a fan of Oliveira. He argues that Dariush is a thinking man's fighter with high ring IQ, underrated power, and a nasty liver kick. He notes that Oliveira's reckless approach and durability issues (gets knocked down often) play into Dariush's precision. He also believes Dariush's wrestling and BJJ are good enough to grapple with Oliveira, and he can win standing or on the ground. He expects the fight to end inside the distance.

Connor picks Dariush confidently, citing his superior grappling and pressure. He believes Dariush can out-grapple Oliveira and that Oliveira's submission threat is overrated. He notes that Dariush is willing to grapple and has the skills to neutralize Oliveira's guard. However, he acknowledges the risk of Oliveira's power and chaos.

Daniel Levi picks Beneil Dariush in a coin-toss fight, citing momentum and Dariush's time to get a title shot. He notes that Dariush has paid his dues and is on a win streak, while Oliveira has been dropped in his last three fights. He believes Dariush will not be afraid to follow Oliveira to the ground, unlike previous opponents, and that Dariush's calm, pressure-based Jiu-Jitsu can neutralize Oliveira's non-stop attacking style. However, he acknowledges Oliveira's offensive potency and the possibility of Dariush getting hurt.

James picks Beneil Dariush, believing Oliveira's time at the top is done. He thinks Dariush's distance control with his left kick and technical striking can make Oliveira look amateur on the feet, similar to how Islam Makhachev did. He also believes Dariush can get takedowns and has elite jiu-jitsu to avoid submissions. However, he notes Dariush's chin is vulnerable and he could be dragged into a brawl, where Oliveira has an edge. James sees Dariush winning by decision or submission, and considers the moneyline value good.

Dariush has a well-rounded game with improved striking and excellent defensive grappling. Oliveira is dangerous everywhere but has shown vulnerability to pressure and wrestling. Dariush's ability to stuff takedowns and land on the feet should lead to a finish, likely by KO. The under 2.5 rounds is a strong play given both fighters' finishing rates.

Paul leans toward Dariush, citing his technical striking and smart approach. He thinks Oliveira could do crazy things early, but once Dariush susses out the situation, he will take over and find his advantage. Paul is not betting this fight but is interested in a PrizePicks play on under 1.5 takedowns for Dariush, reasoning that Dariush may not want to go to the ground with Oliveira.

The MMA Guru picks Beneil Dariush over Charles Oliveira, despite wanting Oliveira to win. He notes Dariush's consistent recent performances, great takedown defense, and improving hands. He worries about Oliveira's tendency to get dropped and his injury layoff. He believes Dariush can control where the fight goes and may finish or win a decision.

Zane also picks Dariush, emphasizing that if Dariush can scramble with Oliveira on the ground, he can win. He notes that Dariush's defensive wrestling and scrambling were impressive against Gamrot and Ferreira. He acknowledges the danger of Oliveira's striking but believes Dariush's grappling advantage is key.

Angelo picks Mike Malott, believing he is better everywhere except straight wrestling. He notes that Malott is a well-rounded prospect with three stoppage wins in the UFC. He expects a fun fight and thinks Malott will get it done. He plans to bet on Adam Fugitt to have more takedowns when prop lines drop.

Big Brady picks Mike Malott to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Malott is dangerous everywhere, with solid striking and high-level BJJ, while Fugitt is hittable and not as skilled. Malott has never been past the first round (all wins in round 1), and Brady expects an early finish. However, if the fight extends, Fugitt could take over if Malott gasses.

Cody picks Mike Malott, highlighting his well-rounded skills (BJJ black belt, good striker) and smart fight IQ. He thinks Malott will use his speed advantage and stay on the outside, avoiding wrestling with Fugitt. He notes that Malott's cardio is unproven beyond the first round, as most of his wins are early finishes. He expects Malott to land a big shot or secure a submission if the fight goes to the ground.

Connor picks Malott, noting that Fugitt reacts poorly to getting hit and has bad body language when eating strikes. He believes Malott's aggressive pocket boxing will overwhelm Fugitt, who is technically limited. He also notes that Malott is a credible submission threat on the ground.

Daniel Levi picks Mike Malott but with almost zero faith, acknowledging that Malott has holes in his striking defense and that the fade is coming. He notes that Malott is a better athlete and has first-round finishing upside, but he sees openings that could be exploited. He mentions that he played Fugitt at plus odds for value, but thinks Malott will still find a way to win. He warns against parlaying Malott heavily.

James picks Adam Fugitt, despite having lost money fading Malott in the past. He thinks Fugitt has a good chance to win, especially if the fight goes past round one. Malott is a strong round-one finisher but tends to fade. James believes Fugitt is the perfect archetype to break Malott. He sees the fight as a pick'em: Malott has a 50% chance to win early, Fugitt 50% to win late. He also includes Fugitt inside the distance in a degenerate parlay.

Malott has a Muay Thai base and improving jiu-jitsu, and he's on a hot streak since moving to welterweight. Fugitt is a solid fighter but may be capped at this level. Both have finishing upside, making the under 2.5 rounds attractive. Malott should find a submission after getting the fight to the ground, but Fugitt's power makes this a risky chalk play.

Paul picks Mike Malott but with hesitancy, noting that Fugitt is being overlooked. He points out that Malott's cardio is unproven beyond the first round, and Fugitt is a bigger, rugged welterweight with a reach advantage. However, he believes Malott's superior footwork and striking will allow him to chip away or find a finish. He expects Malott to win but is not fully confident.

The MMA Guru picks Mike Malott, noting he is a Canadian prospect given a favorable matchup. He praises Malott's easy wins over tricky opponents and his great grappling. He believes Fugitt lacks the ability to knock out or out-grapple Malott. He predicts a first-round submission via arm triangle.

Zane picks Malott, citing that Fugitt's wrestling is not reliable enough to implement a game plan. He notes that Malott is aggressive on the ground and can scramble, making it hard for Fugitt to hold him down. He also mentions that Fugitt's striking is a mess and Malott will have opportunities.

Angelo picks Dan Ige, but is cautious about betting. He acknowledges Ige is the better fighter skill-for-skill, but Nate Landwehr's relentless pressure and unpredictability could cause problems. He compares it to the Jaime Malarkey situation where a favorite was put in parlays and lost. He will keep Ige out of parlays and not bet on this fight.

Big Brady picks Nate Landwehr to win a close decision. He notes that Landwehr is higher volume and can mix in takedowns, while Ige is more skilled but lower volume. Both are tough, but Landwehr's pace and wrestling could edge rounds. He expects a back-and-forth war and thinks Landwehr's activity will earn him the nod.

Cody picks Dan Ige by knockout, citing Ige's durability (Hawaiians don't get knocked out) and power advantage. He notes that Landwehr can get wobbled, as seen in the Julian Erosa fight. He believes Ige's quick hands and combinations will be too much for Landwehr, who tends to brawl recklessly. He took Ige by KO at +205, expecting a finish in round 2.

Connor picks Ige, emphasizing his technical improvement and durability. He notes that Ige has a great chin and has weathered shots from big punchers. He believes Ige's counter-punching and takedown ability will capitalize on Landwehr's reckless aggression. He also notes that Landwehr is not a technical fighter and often leaves himself open.

Daniel Levi picks Dan Ige, citing Ige's crisp boxing and power, and noting that Nate Landwehr has poor striking defense and gets chinned in almost every fight. He references that Korean Zombie said Ige was the hardest hitter he ever fought. He believes Ige will knock Landwehr out, especially given Landwehr's tendency to get tagged up early. He mentions that if Landwehr survives the early onslaught, he could take over late, but he sees Ige as the cleaner, more experienced fighter.

James picks Dan Ige to win, either by knockout in round one or by decision. He believes Ige is a level above Landwehr in MMA, with sharper boxing and heavier hands. Landwehr is a brawler who gets hit often and has been knocked out before. James thinks Ige's veteran savvy will prevent him from being dragged into a wild war, and that Ige will land the cleaner, more damaging shots. He notes Ige is four years younger and has faced better competition.

Ige's tight boxing and counter-striking should exploit Landwehr's wild aggression. Landwehr has durability concerns and has been knocked out before. Ige's power and accuracy should find a finish, likely in the second round. Landwehr could win if he overwhelms Ige with output and takedowns, but Ige's well-rounded game gives him the edge.

Paul picks Dan Ige, emphasizing Ige's endless cardio, speed, and experience against elite competition. He notes that Landwehr's wild brawling style leaves him open, and Ige's quick hand speed and combinations will clip him. He believes Landwehr's takedown threat is minimal because Landwehr prefers to stand and brawl. He expects Ige to win by decision or knockout, but his gut says knockout.

The MMA Guru picks Dan Ige despite being a fan of Nate Landwehr, citing Ige's knockout power and Landwehr's tendency to get hit with his chin up. He notes Ige has finished fighters like Damon Jackson and Gavin Tucker, while Landwehr has been caught before. He predicts a late first-round KO for Ige, though he hopes Landwehr wins.

Zane picks Ige, noting that Landwehr's style is to build momentum without a foundation, which can be exploited by a disciplined fighter like Ige. He believes Ige will have many opportunities to counter Landwehr's wild attacks and that Ige's takedowns will be effective. He also notes that Landwehr is not as fast as Ige.

Angelo picks Marc-André Barriault to win, but plans to bet on Eryk Anders by inside the distance. He explains that Barriault is more well-rounded and technical, but Anders is more dangerous and powerful. He expects Anders to either finish Barriault or lose a decision, so he will bet on Anders inside the distance (no action if decision).

Big Brady picks Marc-André Barriault by decision. He notes that Barriault is high volume (6 significant strikes per minute) while Anders is low volume and will likely try to wrestle, but his takedown attempts are inefficient and will tire him. Barriault should win the striking exchanges and take over as the fight goes on, winning the second and third rounds.

Cody picks Barriault, expecting a close competitive fight that will likely go to a decision. He notes that Anders relies heavily on clinch work, but Barriault thrives in the clinch and has better cardio. He thinks Anders will slow down in the third round, allowing Barriault to pull ahead. He also mentions that Canadian judging may favor Barriault in a close fight.

Connor picks Anders, citing his recent technical improvement and physical advantages. He notes that Anders has learned to put combinations together and use his jab effectively. He believes Anders' strength and wrestling will be too much for Barriault, who is not a power puncher. He acknowledges Barriault's improvement but thinks Anders' ceiling is higher.

Daniel Levi picks Eryk Anders in a coin-flip fight, noting that Anders looked good against Dacus and has better defense, while Barriault has more volume but is slower. He is unsure about Canadian judges and the fact that Anders is no longer at Fight Ready, which could affect his conditioning. He sees this as a close fight that could go either way, so he takes the dog, but warns against making Anders a heavy play.

James has no strong opinion on this fight. He sees both fighters as similar and expects a close fight if it goes to decision. He notes it could finish inside the distance due to pace, but he is leaning towards the fight going over. He passes on betting because he doesn't like betting on fights he expects to be very close unless there is a big number.

Barriault's cardio and forward pressure are his key weapons; he wears opponents down with volume and durability. Anders relies on physical advantages but has shown limited technical improvements. Barriault should outwork Anders, especially in later rounds, and could even secure a late finish. Anders' only path is an early KO, but Barriault's durability is underrated.

Paul picks Barriault, citing volume as the key factor. He notes that Anders will need to make it ugly with takedowns, but he is not confident in Anders' wrestling to hold Barriault down. He expects Barriault to outwork Anders over three rounds, similar to the Daukaus fight. He also likes the over on Barriault's significant strikes.

The MMA Guru picks Marc-André Barriault, criticizing Eryk Anders for being stiff and having a history of injuries and beatings. He notes Barriault is fluid and coming off a great performance, and that Anders must finish early or he fades. He expects Barriault to pick up the pace and win by decision or late finish in front of his Canadian home crowd.

Zane picks Anders, emphasizing his physicality and improved striking. He notes that Anders' strength makes him difficult to take down and that he has become more fluid. He believes Barriault's volume will not be enough to overcome Anders' power and wrestling. He also mentions that Barriault is not a power puncher.

Angelo picks Nassourdine Imavov, but with hesitation. He notes that Chris Curtis is a great counter-striker but often backs up, which could lead to a decision loss. He believes Imavov's size and forward pressure will earn him a close decision. However, he admits he has never picked a Chris Curtis fight correctly, so he is fading his own pick.

Big Brady leans towards Imavov because Chris Curtis is a slow starter who often loses the first round. He notes that both fighters are durable with only one KO loss combined, so the fight likely goes to decision. Imavov's early activity should win him the first round, and the later rounds will be close. He picks Imavov by decision.

Cody picks Imavov, arguing that Curtis has taken too much damage recently (319 significant strikes in 4 fights) and is fighting too frequently. He notes that Curtis' style has reverted to a Philly shell, and he struggles against rangy fighters who stay on the outside. Imavov has speed, youth, and a long jab, and can fight at range. He expects Imavov to stay on the outside and pick Curtis apart.

Connor agrees with Zane and picks Chris Curtis, though he is hesitant. He likes the way Curtis fights, describing him as a systematic pocket boxer with great hands and defense. Connor worries that Imavov could frustrate Curtis in short bursts, but notes that it's a three-round fight, so two rounds of Imavov's bursts might be enough. He ultimately sides with Curtis because he is a better fighter and more capable of closing doors when momentum shifts.

Daniel Levi picks Chris Curtis, agreeing with the co-host that Imavov does not have the volume or gas tank to implement the blueprint to beat Curtis. He notes that Curtis has excellent boxing, takedown defense, and body shots that can sap Imavov's cardio. He points out that Imavov has historically low output and has faded in fights, while Curtis is a dangerous counter-puncher. He believes the line offers value on Curtis.

James picks Imavov to win by 29-28 decision. He thinks Imavov's range control and lead leg work will be key, and that Curtis struggles with fighters who don't stand in the pocket. He expects Imavov to win rounds one and two, with Curtis possibly taking round three. James notes Curtis is a good counter-striker but may take time to find his timing. He suggests live betting Curtis after round one if he loses it, as Curtis will likely be a bigger underdog then.

Imavov's distance striking and kicking game should keep Curtis at range, frustrating his pocket boxing. Curtis has a significant size disadvantage (5-inch height difference) and may struggle to close distance. However, Curtis has KO power and could turn the fight if he drags Imavov into exchanges. Low confidence due to Curtis's finishing ability.

Paul leans toward Imavov, agreeing with Cody's assessment. He notes that Curtis struggles to get into the pocket against fighters who stay at range, as seen in the Hermansson fight. The big cage in Vancouver will give Imavov room to move. However, Paul admits he cannot bet against Curtis with his own money because he likes him as a fighter.

The MMA Guru picks Chris Curtis as an underdog, noting Imavov slows down in fights and has cardio issues. He believes Curtis has great takedown defense and can stop Imavov's takedowns, making Imavov worry. He also mentions Curtis trains with Sean Strickland, who recently beat Imavov. He predicts Curtis wins by decision, possibly with a third-round TKO.

Zane picks Chris Curtis despite acknowledging that Imavov has the stylistic advantages to frustrate Curtis like Jack Hermansson did. He notes that Imavov is tall, rangy, and faster than Hermansson, but lacks consistency and tends to gas. Zane trusts Curtis's ability to hang around and snatch momentum if Imavov loses a step, and he prefers Curtis's boxing and pocket fighting. He admits it's a bad style matchup but thinks Curtis is the better fighter.

Angelo picks Jasmine Jasudavicius as a significant underdog. He highlights her high-level wrestling credentials as a Canadian national champion, and believes she can outwrestle Miranda Maverick. He notes that Miranda's game plan will be to outwrestle a national champion, which he doubts will work. He placed a quarter unit bet on Jasmine at +250.

Big Brady picks Miranda Maverick but is hesitant due to the high price. He notes that Jasudavicius has a path to victory via takedowns and top control, which is concerning. However, Maverick is younger, a better striker, and a black belt in BJJ. He expects Maverick to keep the fight standing or scramble back up if taken down, winning a decision. He cautions against betting at -290.

Cody picks Miranda Maverick, citing advantages in speed, distance management, and wrestling. He notes that Jasudavicius likes to stand and brawl, but Maverick is fleet-footed and can stay in and out of the pocket. He believes Maverick can win standing or on the ground, and expects a decision. He also likes the over on Maverick's significant strikes.

Connor also picks Miranda Maverick, emphasizing her physical edge: she is harder hitting, stronger, and more mobile. He notes that Maverick has a straightforward game plan to win easily and can afford to make more mistakes than Jasudavicius. However, he warns that if Jasudavicius gets underhooks first and takes Maverick down, she will do a lot of damage and narrow the room for error. Connor believes Maverick's athleticism and improved instruction will carry her.

Daniel Levi picks Jasmine Jasudavicius for value, noting that she moves better than Maverick and has a longer reach. He thinks if she can stuff takedowns, she can win with volume. He is concerned about her cardio in round three, but sees Maverick's striking as awkward and slow. He believes the line is too wide and that Jasudavicius has a real path to victory, possibly by decision.

James picks Jasmine Jasudavicius as a live underdog at +250. He thinks the line is inflated; he would line Maverick at -165. He acknowledges Maverick is better or equal in most areas but by slim margins. Jasudavicius has higher pace and aggression, and James believes she can win rounds and possibly land takedowns. He expects a close back-and-forth fight that could go to a split decision. He also mentions the plus-3.5 spread as a potential bet.

Jasudavicius has a size and wrestling advantage, and she showed improved striking setups in her last fight. Maverick struggles against grapplers who can take her down, as seen in the Blanchfield loss. However, Maverick's jiu-jitsu off her back is dangerous, and Jasudavicius must maintain top pressure without gassing. The odds are closer than implied, making Jasudavicius a live underdog.

Paul picks Miranda Maverick, noting that Jasudavicius' typical clinch and wrestling advantages won't work against Maverick's strength and leverage. He believes Maverick's speed and footwork will allow her to outpoint Jasudavicius on the feet, and she can also score takedowns. He expects a decision win for Maverick.

The MMA Guru picks Miranda Maverick, citing her solid grappling and competitive losses to top fighters like Erin Blanchfield and Macy Barber (where he believes she was robbed). He thinks Jasudavicius is primarily a striker and cannot out-grapple Maverick. He expects Maverick to mix in grappling and win a decision.

Zane picks Miranda Maverick, citing her physical advantages: she is faster, stronger, and more mobile than Jasudavicius. He notes that Maverick has a lot of room for error due to her athleticism, and that she has shown good signs of taking her career seriously at Team Elevation. However, he worries that Jasudavicius has figured out her game faster—using pressure and body lock takedowns—and that if she gets top position, she can do a lot of damage. Zane thinks Maverick can win by staying at range and not letting Jasudavicius tie up.

Angelo picks Aiemann Zahabi as an underdog. He notes that Zahabi is well-rounded with big power, and that his performance against Ricky Turcios was impressive. He believes Zahabi will be more technical and a step ahead of Aoriqileng. He plans to monitor line movement and may bet if Zahabi becomes a larger underdog.

Big Brady picks Aiemann Zahabi because he is the more active striker, landing 6.07 significant strikes per minute compared to Aoriqileng's 3.01. He notes that Aoriqileng has low volume, doesn't use his BJJ, and has poor takedown attempts. Zahabi is younger, more experienced, and has never been knocked out. He expects Zahabi to outwork Aoriqileng over three rounds and win a decision.

Cody picks Aoriqileng, citing his volume and pressure style. He notes that Zahabi is a low-volume counter puncher who doesn't wrestle much, and Aoriqileng will come forward with blitzes and constant pressure. He believes Zahabi's wrestling is not good enough to neutralize Aoriqileng, and the volume difference should win rounds. He acknowledges the risk of a bad Canadian decision but still picks Aoriqileng.

Connor also picks Aoriqileng, noting that Zahabi's wins came against fighters who wouldn't engage or lacked physicality, while his losses to Vince Morales and Ricardo Ramos were not close. He points out that Aoriqileng is a little slow-paced but has more promise in his fights with Jeff Molina and Cody Durden, where a method was visible. Connor suggests it would be a good time for Zahabi to show wrestling, but Aoriqileng is not easy to keep down.

Daniel Levi does not make a pick for this fight, stating he has no interest in betting it. He notes that Aoriqileng has power but questionable takedown defense, while Zahabi has low activity and is older. He defers to the co-host who has a teammate in the fight.

James picks Aoriqileng, noting his momentum with two straight wins and improved takedown defense and striking. He contrasts Aoriqileng's aggressive pressure and volume with Zahabi's technical but low-volume outside fighting style. James believes Aoriqileng can land heavier shots and push the pace to win on the scorecards. He warns that if Aoriqileng reverts to a brawler style, Zahabi could catch him with straight shots, but overall he likes Aoriqileng's spot and the even-money price.

Aoriqileng has shown improved defensive grappling since moving to bantamweight and has a volume and output advantage. Zahabi is a technical striker but often too timid, and his low activity is a concern. Aoriqileng's pressure and accuracy should earn him a decision, though Zahabi could win if he uses his jiu-jitsu. Low confidence due to Zahabi's potential grappling edge.

Paul picks Aoriqileng, emphasizing the volume disparity: Aoriqileng averages 6.07 strikes per minute vs Zahabi's 3.01. He notes that Zahabi's fights are low-output, and Aoriqileng's constant pressure should win rounds. He expects a close fight but believes Aoriqileng's output will be enough, though a bad Canadian decision is possible.

The MMA Guru picks Aiemann Zahabi over Aoriqileng, praising Zahabi's fight IQ and game planning. He notes Aoriqileng is predictable with big power shots and telegraphs his moves, while Zahabi can figure out opponents and mix things up. He believes Zahabi's size and heat behind his shots will keep Aoriqileng honest, predicting a 30-27 decision.

Zane picks Aoriqileng, criticizing Zahabi's last fight as extremely technical but aimless, with fighters standing too far apart. He notes that Zahabi is a brawler who doesn't understand fighting without chaos, while Aoriqileng has a clear method: he works his way forward, applies pressure, and punishes mistakes with quick counters. Zane thinks Aoriqileng is better in a brawl and also better when it's not a brawl, making him the pick.

Angelo picks Blake Bilder, citing his superior grappling and technical striking. He notes that Bilder is an aggressive grappler who doesn't take unnecessary risks, and that he should be able to control the fight. He acknowledges Kyle Nelson's decent losses and recent grappling improvements, but still believes Bilder gets the win. He considers Bilder for a safety parlay.

Big Brady picks Blake Bilder to win by third-round TKO. He notes that Bilder is extremely tough and has a high pace, while Kyle Nelson has cardio issues and tends to gas in fast-paced fights. Bilder often gets dropped early but comes back, and Nelson's best chance is wrestling, but his cardio will fail. He expects Bilder to take over late and finish.

Cody picks Blake Bilder, but suggests live betting him after the first round because Nelson may come out aggressively and could knock Bilder out early. He notes that Bilder has good cardio and a solid one-two, but his defense is shaky. He expects Bilder to take Nelson down and outwork him as Nelson tires. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds in this fight.

Connor picks Blake Bilder but is hesitant, noting that the test will come immediately while Bilder is still cold, which could be a prospect loss. He points out that Nelson is a very hard puncher with long reach, and that Bilder's only good sign was against Shane Young, who is not a high-level test. Connor acknowledges that Nelson's opponents tend to be fragile and get knocked out early, but since Bilder hasn't been knocked out yet, he won't pick against him. He thinks the odds movement toward Bilder is notable.

Daniel Levi picks Blake Bilder, citing that Bilder has better boxing, pace, and conditioning than Kyle Nelson. He notes that Nelson has low output and fades, while Bilder has shown a dog mentality and can push a high volume. He acknowledges that Bilder has a questionable chin and has been dropped before, but believes Nelson is too slow and telegraphed to capitalize. He warns against using Bilder as a heavy parlay piece.

James picks Blake Bilder to win but is not confident at -250. He thinks Bilder is more well-rounded and should get takedowns, possibly finding a submission in round two. However, he notes Kyle Nelson has more UFC experience, hits hard early, and is fighting for his job in Canada. James wouldn't be surprised if Nelson gets an early knockout or a split decision. He advises against laying -250 on Bilder as he's not a minus-250 type fighter.

Bilder has excellent lateral movement and a well-rounded game, while Nelson's only path is a puncher's chance. Nelson's attempts to grapple have failed due to poor cardio, and Bilder is the superior grappler. Expect Bilder to use his movement to set up takedowns, eventually finding a late submission. The stylistic matchup heavily favors Bilder.

Paul picks Blake Bilder, noting that Nelson has poor cardio and wrestling. He believes Bilder is the better wrestler and will take Nelson down, especially as Nelson fades. He expects a finish in the second or third round. He also mentions that Nelson's best chance is an early KO, but he thinks Bilder will survive and take over.

The MMA Guru picks Blake Bilder over Kyle Nelson, arguing that Nelson has shown his limit with poor performances and losses to low-level competition. He notes Bilder is undefeated and well-rounded, with a good ground and stand-up game. He believes Bilder's potential is unknown and worth gambling on, expecting him to outpoint Nelson.

Zane picks Blake Bilder, noting that Kyle Nelson is a heavy-handed puncher with good takedowns but tenses up and gasses quickly. He believes Bilder is not as breakable as Nelson's previous opponents, having shown grit against Shane Young by fighting back when pressured. Zane thinks Nelson's grappling safety valve won't work against Bilder, who is a good athlete with surprising power. He acknowledges that Bilder is raw and could face early scares, but trusts his durability.

Angelo picks David Dvořák, noting his solid striking, forward pressure, and takedown defense. He criticizes Steve Erceg's striking, calling it unimpressive with a wide stance and limited head movement. He believes Dvořák's experience and fundamentals will prevail, and mentions that if odds are around -175, he would bet on Dvořák.

Big Brady picks David Dvořák because he is a significant step up in competition for Steve Erceg, who is taking the fight on short notice. Dvořák has fought top flyweights and has good takedown defense and striking. Erceg has shown good grappling but is unlikely to take Dvořák down. Dvořák should win a decision by being the better striker and stuffing takedowns.

Cody picks David Dvořák, citing his experience and cardio advantage. He notes that Erceg has mostly first-round finishes and faded in his only decision win. Dvořák has gone the distance with top-10 opponents and has better striking and wrestling. He believes Erceg's short-notice debut and cardio issues will be his downfall.

Connor also picks David Dvořák, noting that Erceg is a good scrambler but his level of competition has been low. Dvořák is a much better striker and has solid takedown defense; Connor points out that Bruno Silva took Dvořák down three times but Dvořák spent only a minute and a half on the mat and had two sweeps. He thinks Erceg's awkward striking and tendency to get surprised by takedowns will be a problem against a well-rounded fighter like Dvořák.

Daniel Levi picks David Dvořák, arguing that Erceg is a first-round finish or bust fighter who gassed against a 2-0 opponent. He notes that Dvořák has fought top-5 competition and shown toughness, surviving a Kimura from Manel Kape. He believes Dvořák can win in multiple ways and will take over if the fight goes past the first round. He sees Erceg's cardio as a major liability.

James likes the value on Steve Erceg as a +235 underdog. He notes Erceg has good grappling, back takes, and submission ability, plus a height advantage and momentum with a 9-1 record. Dvořák is coming off two losses. James acknowledges Erceg might gas but showed he can push through. He thinks if it becomes a grindy grappling affair, it favors Erceg. However, he still believes Dvořák should win, so it's a value play rather than a strong conviction pick.

Dvořák is a solid all-around fighter with good striking combinations and underrated grappling, but his recent losses show he may have a ceiling. Erceg is a dangerous debutant with an 8-fight win streak and a black belt in BJJ, but the step up in competition is a question. The odds are too wide at -285; only a sprinkle on Erceg or a play on Dvořák if the line drops to -150/-160. Prediction is Dvořák by decision, but low confidence.

Paul leans toward Erceg as a dog, noting that he is tall for flyweight and a decent counterpuncher. He thinks Erceg's grappling is opportunistic and could give Dvořák problems. However, he is not confident enough to bet him, citing Erceg's cardio issues and short notice. He ultimately passes on betting but picks Erceg for the show.

The MMA Guru picks David Dvořák over debutant Steve Erceg, citing Dvořák's superior regional career and experience against top flyweights. He notes Dvořák submitted a dangerous opponent in the second round and has fought the best, keeping fights competitive. He believes Dvořák's experience will be the difference against a newcomer, predicting a 29-28 decision.

Zane picks David Dvořák, describing him as a very competent, well-rounded fighter with solid striking fundamentals (volume one-twos, low kicks) and good takedown defense. He notes that Erceg is a fun scrambling grappler but has poor wrestling and gets taken down easily early. Dvořák has never been submitted and is tough to outmaneuver on the ground. Zane thinks Erceg will have to outwrestle Dvořák to get the fight to the ground, which is unlikely given Dvořák's skills.

Angelo picks Maria Oliveira as an underdog. He notes that Diana Belbiţă has been out for over a year due to injuries, while Maria has fought three times in that span. He believes Maria's durability and forward pressure will be key, and that Diana may struggle with takedowns or slow down. He sees Maria winning a close fight.

Big Brady picks Diana Belbiţă because she can exploit Maria Oliveira's poor takedown defense with her judo and throws. Oliveira is the better technical striker, but Belbiţă throws high volume and can mix in takedowns to win close rounds. He also notes the Canadian factor may help in a close decision. He is not confident and has little interest in the fight.

Cody picks Diana Belbiţă, noting that Oliveira is willing to stand and trade, which plays into Belbiţă's hands. He believes Belbiţă has improved her cardio and counter-wrestling under Kruelion. He thinks Oliveira's lack of wrestling will allow Belbiţă to keep the fight standing and win a striking battle. He expects a decision win for Belbiţă.

Connor also picks Maria Oliveira, agreeing that Belbiţă lacks core strength and can be pushed around. He notes that Oliveira's losses are to very good athletes like Vanessa Demopoulos, Tabitha Ricci, and Kana Asakura, while Belbiţă is not at that level. Connor thinks the odds could be more skewed toward Oliveira, as Belbiţă has struggled against anyone who takes her out of her game.

Daniel Levi picks Diana Belbiţă, citing her higher volume and better cardio compared to Maria Oliveira, who he considers one of the worst fighters in the UFC. He notes that Oliveira pushes her punches and has poor fundamentals, while Belbiţă puts out a ton of volume and has shown grit. He believes Belbiţă will outwork Oliveira and win a decision, especially with the Canadian crowd behind her.

James picks Diana Belbiţă to win by decision. He notes that Belbiţă has better striking fundamentals with her hands up and sharp punches, while Maria Oliveira is wild with her chin up. He believes Belbiţă can also take Oliveira down if she wants, as Oliveira has a terrible ground game. He predicts the fight goes to decision but suggests betting on the fight ending inside distance at plus money due to the volatility of low-level women's MMA.

Belbiţă has an aggressive striking style with good body work and forward pressure. She's been improving her defensive grappling and should land more effective strikes than Oliveira, who was dropped multiple times in her last fight. The home crowd advantage in Vancouver may help her in a close decision. However, this is a low-confidence lean given both women are similar strikers.

Paul leans toward Maria Oliveira, citing her slight grappling advantage and reach. He notes that Belbiţă's big win over Hannah Goldie came with a significant reach advantage, and Oliveira is similarly sized. He thinks Oliveira's takedowns and submission threat could be the difference. He acknowledges it's a close fight and expects a decision.

The MMA Guru leans towards Maria Oliveira because she is faster and more talented on the feet, with a range advantage despite being shorter. He notes that Diana Belbiţă has poor grappling, having been submitted when attempting a takedown and out-grappled by Molly McCann. He expects a stand-up fight and predicts a close decision win for Oliveira.

Zane picks Maria Oliveira, citing Belbiţă's lack of core strength, which makes her easy to push around. He notes that Oliveira is a more comfortable, athletic striker who is faster and more confident. Belbiţă's striking has improved, but she lacks the athleticism to impose her will. Zane thinks Oliveira's losses have come against strong grapplers or athletes, and Belbiţă does not fit that mold, so Oliveira should win.