UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana · Jun 10, 2023 · Middleweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana Next Fight
Age 30
Height 6' 3"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 38
Height 5' 10"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Nassourdine Imavov
4.28 SLpM
54.0% Str. Acc.
3.17 SApM
58.0% Str. Def.
0.74 TD Avg
32.0% TD Acc.
81.0% TD Def.
1.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Chris Curtis
5.52 SLpM
50.0% Str. Acc.
5.75 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
64.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Nassourdine Imavov
Moneyline
BetWay -163
KO/TKO
BetWay +525
Submission
FanDuel +750
Decision
BetMGM +165
Chris Curtis
Moneyline
Caesars +160
KO/TKO
BetRivers +430
Submission
FanDuel +2300
Decision
FanDuel +380
Nassourdine Imavov - Fight History
WIN vs Caio Borralho
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · Sep 06, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nassourdine Imavov 0 81 of 162 50% 89 of 170 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
Caio Borralho 0 66 of 166 39% 89 of 190 0 of 5 0% 0 0 1:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nassourdine Imavov 0 10 of 18 55% 15 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Caio Borralho 0 6 of 22 27% 13 of 30 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:51
2 Nassourdine Imavov 0 13 of 26 50% 13 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Caio Borralho 0 7 of 30 23% 7 of 30 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Nassourdine Imavov 0 13 of 31 41% 14 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Caio Borralho 0 17 of 38 44% 21 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:22
4 Nassourdine Imavov 0 24 of 44 54% 26 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
Caio Borralho 0 12 of 32 37% 20 of 40 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
5 Nassourdine Imavov 0 21 of 43 48% 21 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Caio Borralho 0 24 of 44 54% 28 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nassourdine Imavov 81 of 162 50% 53 of 118 14 of 26 14 of 18 79 of 160 2 of 2 0 of 0
Caio Borralho 66 of 166 39% 39 of 109 14 of 38 13 of 19 59 of 159 7 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nassourdine Imavov 10 of 18 55% 3 of 6 3 of 5 4 of 7 9 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0
Caio Borralho 6 of 22 27% 1 of 10 4 of 8 1 of 4 3 of 19 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Nassourdine Imavov 13 of 26 50% 9 of 20 3 of 4 1 of 2 13 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Caio Borralho 7 of 30 23% 3 of 16 1 of 11 3 of 3 7 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Nassourdine Imavov 13 of 31 41% 10 of 24 2 of 6 1 of 1 13 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Caio Borralho 17 of 38 44% 8 of 22 7 of 13 2 of 3 14 of 35 3 of 3 0 of 0
4 Nassourdine Imavov 24 of 44 54% 17 of 35 3 of 5 4 of 4 24 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
Caio Borralho 12 of 32 37% 10 of 26 0 of 3 2 of 3 12 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Nassourdine Imavov 21 of 43 48% 14 of 33 3 of 6 4 of 4 20 of 42 1 of 1 0 of 0
Caio Borralho 24 of 44 54% 17 of 35 2 of 3 5 of 6 23 of 43 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 31, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Angelo leans towards Nassourdine Imavov, citing his superior striking, footwork, and gas tank. He acknowledges Borralho's improvements and toughness but believes Imavov has more ways to win. He trusts Imavov's takedown defense over five rounds and notes that Borralho might be distracted by his world tour. He calls it a razor-thin 50-50 fight.

"I am going to lean Nasser Imov here because I think he has more ways to win."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Caio Borralho

Big Brady picks Caio Borralho, citing his grappling upside and the 'Fighting Nerds' aura. He expects a close fight going 25 minutes, with Borralho winning minutes in the clinch and with takedowns. He notes both have good cardio but favors Borralho slightly.

Borralho by decision
"I'm going to go Kyle Baja to win this fight by a close decision, winning some minutes in the clinch, having the slightly better cardio, and then mixing in some takedowns."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Sep 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Caio Borralho

Connor also picks Borralho, citing that Imavov's game may struggle against a southpaw and that Borralho's low kicks and body work will pay dividends. He notes that Imavov still tends to gas, especially if he wrestles, and that Borralho's conditioning is superior. However, he admits that Borralho's one good performance against Cannonier may be stylistic and that Imavov could have a definitive round.

"I tend to agree because even if it's not that good a performance, I do kind of suspect a lot of that had to do with Jared Cannonier as a stylistic matchup for him."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Caio Borralho

The host views Borralho as the far superior fighter in fight IQ and overall MMA approach. He acknowledges Imavov can be competitive in striking but expects Borralho to mix it up well, get his grappling going, and win at least four out of five rounds on the scorecards.

"I think Bajalio is just the far superior fighter from fight IQ to an overall MMA approach. But Hayo can definitely be competitive in the striking realm, and I think we'll see him mix it up well to eventually get …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

The Guru picks Nassourdine Imavov as an underdog, arguing the odds are incorrect and Imavov should be a 2-to-1 favorite. He praises Imavov's striking, footwork, and speed, while noting Borralho's grappling advantage may not materialize. He predicts a TKO finish in round three or four, citing Imavov's moments of excellence and Borralho's inactivity.

TKO finish in round three or four
"I'm going with Nasadin Mav. And he's an underdog here."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Sep 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Caio Borralho

Zane leans toward Borralho because he believes Borralho has shown improved striking and pace, particularly in the Jared Cannonier fight, and can push a better pace for more rounds. He notes that Imavov tends to gas and relies on wrestling, which may not be effective against Borralho's conditioning. However, he acknowledges that Imavov could have a definitive round or land a damaging shot, making it a close fight.

"I think for me, I'm still going to lean towards picking Caio Borralho just because if I imagine the shape of the fight, I don't think like Imavov when he finishes people, it always just kind of comes out of …"
KO R2 0:30 · UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · Feb 01, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Israel Adesanya 0 26 of 50 52% 32 of 56 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Nassourdine Imavov 1 15 of 31 48% 18 of 34 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Israel Adesanya 0 20 of 44 45% 26 of 50 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Nassourdine Imavov 0 8 of 21 38% 10 of 23 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:40
2 Israel Adesanya 0 6 of 6 100% 6 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Nassourdine Imavov 1 7 of 10 70% 8 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Israel Adesanya 26 of 50 52% 9 of 28 6 of 8 11 of 14 26 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nassourdine Imavov 15 of 31 48% 9 of 21 0 of 3 6 of 7 10 of 25 0 of 0 5 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Israel Adesanya 20 of 44 45% 8 of 27 3 of 5 9 of 12 20 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nassourdine Imavov 8 of 21 38% 3 of 13 0 of 2 5 of 6 8 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Israel Adesanya 6 of 6 100% 1 of 1 3 of 3 2 of 2 6 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nassourdine Imavov 7 of 10 70% 6 of 8 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 6
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jan 26, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Angelo picks Israel Adesanya but is getting less confident. He notes that Adesanya's striking looked great in his last fight against Dricus du Plessis, but he was ultimately finished. He believes Adesanya is the better striker and if the fight stays on the feet, he wins. However, he worries about Imavov's wrestling and the possibility of Adesanya's decline. He will not bet on Adesanya.

Will not bet on Adesanya.
"I will not be betting on Israel at asagna I don't quite know if his career is about to fall off a cliff"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 27, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Big Brady is not overly excited for this fight but picks Israel Adesanya. He notes Adesanya looked bad against Strickland but good against Du Plessis before getting submitted. He thinks Imavov can wrestle but lacks the cardio to do so effectively, and will slow down as the fight goes on. Brady expects Adesanya to pick him apart late and win a decision. He has no betting interest.

decision
"I got to go aagna here and osani to win this fight by decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Connor picks Adesanya, arguing that Imavov lacks the pressure and cardio to exploit Adesanya's age. He notes that Adesanya's jab and kicking game remain effective, and Imavov has never shown the ability to maintain a high pace or wrestle consistently enough to trouble Adesanya. Connor believes Imavov would need a radically new approach to win, which he hasn't demonstrated.

"I just kind of have to pick Otis on you by default here and unless he has completely fallen apart or Imavov has leveled up or come up with a really good strategy then."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

James picks Imavov to win, citing Adesanya's decline in durability, reaction time, and motivation. He notes Imavov has advantages in wrestling and grappling, and that Adesanya's recent submission loss to Dricus du Plessis showed poor defensive grappling. He believes Imavov can win by submission, decision, or even knockout due to Adesanya's declining chin. However, he admits it's not his most confident pick.

Imavov by submission at +850 mentioned as a possible play; also suggests Imavov decision as a potential prop.
"I'm going to pick nasad imov to win this fight I think that he's catching Iz he at the right time"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Adesanya is facing a kickboxer that allows him to showcase his high-level performances, unlike the wrestling-heavy styles of Strickland and du Plessis. He will set traps, spring them on Imavov, and prove he is still one of the best middleweights. Expect a 25-minute decision win.

"I believe this is the type of kickboxer that Adesanya has been wanting to go against so that he can showcase that he's still capable of high level performances... look for Adesanya to pick apart Imavov over the course of …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

The MMA Guru picks Nassourdine Imavov to win by submission in the third round, possibly an arm triangle. He believes Imavov's grappling and clinch work will be key, as Adesanya has weaknesses in the clinch and on the ground. He notes Imavov nearly beat Sean Strickland and has good takedown entries. He thinks Adesanya's motivation may be lacking after his losses.

submission, third round arm triangle
"I'm going to go with nasad Nam mov and I'm actually going to take him by submission third round arm triangle"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Zane picks Adesanya, agreeing with Connor that Imavov's style doesn't match up well. He emphasizes that Imavov is not a pressure fighter and struggles with pace, while Adesanya's kicking and jab are still effective. Zane notes that Imavov would need to wrestle consistently, but his takedowns are often from clinch exchanges, which Adesanya handles well.

"I don't think that he's ever shown really the late cardio to make out of Sonia like flow down and really pay for putting on a great performance."
WIN vs Brendan Allen
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · Sep 28, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nassourdine Imavov 0 57 of 86 66% 79 of 114 0 of 0 --- 0 0 5:47
Brendan Allen 0 30 of 52 57% 56 of 82 1 of 10 10% 0 0 6:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nassourdine Imavov 0 1 of 3 33% 5 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Brendan Allen 0 4 of 5 80% 21 of 24 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:45
2 Nassourdine Imavov 0 23 of 33 69% 31 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:32
Brendan Allen 0 8 of 19 42% 11 of 23 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:17
3 Nassourdine Imavov 0 33 of 50 66% 43 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:15
Brendan Allen 0 18 of 28 64% 24 of 35 0 of 6 0% 0 0 1:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nassourdine Imavov 57 of 86 66% 51 of 80 5 of 5 1 of 1 37 of 59 7 of 9 13 of 18
Brendan Allen 30 of 52 57% 20 of 41 4 of 5 6 of 6 20 of 38 6 of 10 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nassourdine Imavov 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Brendan Allen 4 of 5 80% 3 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 3
2 Nassourdine Imavov 23 of 33 69% 19 of 29 3 of 3 1 of 1 12 of 18 2 of 3 9 of 12
Brendan Allen 8 of 19 42% 4 of 14 1 of 2 3 of 3 5 of 15 2 of 3 1 of 1
3 Nassourdine Imavov 33 of 50 66% 31 of 48 2 of 2 0 of 0 24 of 38 5 of 6 4 of 6
Brendan Allen 18 of 28 64% 13 of 23 3 of 3 2 of 2 14 of 21 4 of 7 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Brendan Allen vs. Nassourdine Imavov

Round 1
On practically any other Fight Night card, this middleweight pairing would serve as the main attraction—and it could use the five-round treatment, as the winner might not be far from a title shot. Imavov (14-4, 1 NC; 6-2, 1 NC UFC) is coming off the biggest win of his career, having knocked out Jared Cannonier. His opponent Allen (24-5, 13-2 UFC) is riding a dynamite seven-fight win streak on his own ledger, and someone’s momentum will grind to a halt in the next 15 minutes or less. Referee Herb Dean will know first before anyone else, and he tells the fighters to fight as they acknowledge him and do not bump fists. Imavov takes to the center of the cage, and lets Allen come to him. Allen does just that, leaping in to land a few punches. Imavov pushes him away, getting away with an eye poke, and finds himself staring down the barrel of a takedown attempt. Allen easily lands the body lock, putting the Frenchman on his back and landing in side control. Allen imposes heavy shoulder pressure on the side of Imavov’s face, holding him tightly while Imavov signals to Dean that he is just holding him. Dean asks for more activity, leading to Allen shoulder-checking the local fighter. Imavov tries to buck and shift his hips, and he sits up and is otherwise stuck. Allen looks to assume full mount, and he gets caught and pulled into half guard. Allen opens up with short, stay-busy strikes, and he lowers himself down with a possible arm-triangle setup. Dean claps several times to prompt more action, and Imavov reassumes full guard. Allen postures himself up to land a single right hand, and it is one-and-done and makes Dean ask for more fighting a few times. Imavov sets up an armbar, but he lets it go and gets tagged with a hard right hand. Allen connects with a left while Imavov scoots his way closer to the fencing, and Dean is not overly thrilled by the lack of face-punching thus far. Allen allows Imavov to turn over to his knees, working the body with a knee and planting an elbow on the eyebrow before the grinder of a round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Allen

Round 2
Allen sprints out of his corner to engage, and he fires off a big right hand only to get poked squarely in the eye. Allen signals to Dean that he has gotten poked again, and Dean calls time. Allen frowns and takes a few seconds before resuming, and Dean tells Imavov to be careful. Allen shoots from one side of the cage to the other with a single, and Imavov defends this time and drops to his knees to sprawl effectively. Allen turns to his back, and Imavov lets him stand up. Allen fires off two low kicks and a left hook, and Imavov counters with a right hand over the top. Imavov rings two punches off and waves Allen on, who connects cleanly and shoots for a double. Imavov stuffs this shot masterfully, and he rolls Allen to his back and gets to north-south position. Imavov moves himself to side control, and Allen turns to his knees and starts absorbing fierce punches from the position. Allen’s small rubber bands holding his hair braids start breaking and shooting off his head, and a pile of them forms beneath him. Imavov postures up and batters “All In” with devastating right hands, and Allen is stunned and still with it. Allen explodes back to his feet and directly into a head kick, but he turns around and lets Imavov have it with counters. Imavov strings a combination together and stops a deep shot from Allen, dropping to his knees and considering a guillotine choke of his own to keep Allen honest. Allen breaks out of the choke and dives after the hips, and he twists and turns to not get tagged. This allows the Frenchman to mount him, and Allen turns to give his back up and surrenders both hooks. Allen hand-fights to protect his neck, and Imavov rolls for an armbar with 10 seconds left in the round. Allen defends properly and flips over, landing a few punches before time expires. Allen flashes a wide grin to his opponent after several minutes of grappling.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Imavov
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Imavov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Imavov

Round 3
The last round kicks off with Allen again pushing the pace, and after landing a few punches, Allen is driven back with a one-two. Imavov flicks a jab out and follows with a right hand, and Allen leaps after a single. Imavov defends with a sprawl in the center of the cage, pulling his leg out and letting Allen roll to his back so he can club him with right hands. Imavov, in guard, drops down a few punches to bloody the nose of the surging contender. Imavov’s left hands continue to find their home, and Allen pushes off the chest with his feet. Imavov dives after him with a right hand, and Allen sits up and spins around to pursue a double. The Frenchman defends with his back to the fencing, elbowing Allen on the side of the head when Allen turns it to a single. Imavov’s defense in the second and third rounds is immaculate, and Allen is the one getting tossed around at this point. Imavov loads up on short punches from inside, and Allen shoves him away and throws caution to the wind. Allen punches his way in close, and he blasts Imavov in the face with a knee. Imavov waves him on, and Allen tries to throw him to the mat. Allen walks Imavov down when they both are upright, and he overswings and ends up in a clinch. Allen informs Dean that Imavov is holding his gloves, and Dean looks closely but does not see anything. They break out of the clinch, and Allen whips an elbow up top and a clean knee on the chin. Allen shoots for a single with a minute to go, and when that fails, they start slugging it out. Imavov tags Allen, and Allen fires back hard. Allen tackles his foe down, but Imavov squirms away. Allen walks him down, gets clinched and spins with an elbow that misses. Imavov lands a few punches, and the nailbiter of a middleweight contest draws to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Imavov (29-28 Imavov)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Imavov (29-28 Imavov)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Imavov (29-28 Imavov)

The Official Result
Nassourdine Imavov def. Brendan Allen via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 22, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Angelo picks Nassourdine Imavov, though he thinks the -200 favorite line is a bit wide. He believes Imavov's size and wrestling will be too much for Brendan Allen, who has improved but struggled with Chris Curtis until he wrestled. Allen won't be able to outwrestle Imavov, and Imavov's striking will give Allen trouble. He also likes the over 2.5 rounds.

over 2.5 rounds
"Nasser Imavov is going to be my pick... the fact that this is three rounds instead of five only helps Nasser here... I do think the over two and a half is pretty solid."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Big Brady picks Nassourdine Imavov by second-round knockout, citing Imavov's superior striking and takedown defense. He notes Allen has been on a streak but has poor striking defense (47%) and has been knocked out before. He expects Imavov to land significant shots and finish Allen.

Imavov by second round knockout
"I'll say he knocks out Allen here I'll say he knocks out brenon Allen in the second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Brendan Allen

Cody sees Brendan Allen as a live underdog due to his superior wrestling and grappling. He notes that Imavov has been protected from wrestlers and has shown defensive grappling vulnerabilities. Allen's game plan of takedowns and top control should neutralize Imavov's striking, and the three-round format favors Allen's approach.

"I'm going to take unders on Brendon Allen... the plus money definitely makes sense"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Connor picks Imavov because he believes Allen's defensive deficiencies on the feet will be exploited by Imavov's size, range, and power. He notes that Allen's best wins have come against grapplers or lower-level strikers, and he has struggled against fighters who can keep him at range. Connor also points out that Allen tends to be cautious against strikers he respects, which will play into Imavov's hands. He acknowledges that Allen could win if he pressures relentlessly, but doubts he will do so effectively.

Odds: Imavov -209, Allen +182. Connor mentions the odds are reasonable.
"I'm picking Nasri and Ymavov here."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Daniel Vreeland picks Imavov to win, but is not confident he covers the -210 price. He thinks Imavov's speed, power, and distance management will be key, and that he has a good chance to knock out Allen. However, he believes if Imavov doesn't finish, the fight will be close and Allen has value as a dog. He ultimately picks Imavov but notes the price is high.

"I think imov has a good chance to knock out Allen here in this fight but if he doesn't knock him out I don't think he's GNA cover this price tag"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

JP picks Nassourdine Imavov because he thinks the three-round format favors Imavov's striking. He notes Brendan Allen has a grappling advantage but Imavov throws harder, more accurate strikes and is more mobile. He says if it were five rounds, he'd pick Allen, but in three rounds Imavov should edge it out by decision.

"I am going to go am MAV as well though I I think he can uh I think it'll go all three I think both of them are good enough but uh yeah I think he'll Edge it out"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Brendan Allen

Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing Allen's seven-fight win streak and his ability to take down Chris Curtis six times. He believes Allen's grappling advantage is clear and that Imavov's defensive wrestling is suspect. Paul also notes that the line doesn't reflect the competitive nature of the fight, making Allen a good dog pick.

"I'm with you 100%... he's on a seven fight winning streak taking down Chris Curtis six times is a massive massive feat"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

The MMA Guru picks Nassourdine Imavov over Brendan Allen, citing Imavov's technical striking and ability at all ranges. He notes Imavov's good takedown defense and performance against Strickland. He predicts Imavov will win a decision, possibly 30-27 or 29-28, and that Allen may get frustrated.

"I'm going to go nasaden mavo decision win 30 27 maybe 29 28"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Zane picks Imavov because he sees Allen's striking defense as a major liability, especially against a rangy, powerful striker like Imavov. He notes that Allen's recent wins have come against grapplers or lower-tier competition, and he barely squeaked by Chris Curtis. Zane also points out that Imavov is durable and can maintain a steady pace, while Allen tends to struggle when forced to fight off the back foot. He believes this is the point where Allen's upward trajectory plateaus.

Odds: Imavov -209, Allen +182. Zane mentions the odds are reasonable.
"Me too. This is the point where Alan's upward trajectory just plateaus..."
TKO (punches) R4 1:34 · UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Imavov · Jun 08, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nassourdine Imavov 0 64 of 109 58% 102 of 152 1 of 1 100% 0 0 6:18
Jared Cannonier 0 82 of 134 61% 106 of 159 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nassourdine Imavov 0 21 of 32 65% 38 of 52 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:05
Jared Cannonier 0 14 of 30 46% 16 of 32 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:10
2 Nassourdine Imavov 0 17 of 32 53% 27 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:16
Jared Cannonier 0 28 of 46 60% 36 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Nassourdine Imavov 0 18 of 30 60% 29 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:57
Jared Cannonier 0 21 of 32 65% 33 of 45 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:46
4 Nassourdine Imavov 0 8 of 15 53% 8 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Cannonier 0 19 of 26 73% 21 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nassourdine Imavov 64 of 109 58% 42 of 81 9 of 11 13 of 17 58 of 100 6 of 9 0 of 0
Jared Cannonier 82 of 134 61% 61 of 112 16 of 17 5 of 5 64 of 114 17 of 19 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nassourdine Imavov 21 of 32 65% 13 of 23 2 of 2 6 of 7 20 of 31 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jared Cannonier 14 of 30 46% 7 of 23 4 of 4 3 of 3 12 of 28 1 of 1 1 of 1
2 Nassourdine Imavov 17 of 32 53% 12 of 25 3 of 4 2 of 3 15 of 30 2 of 2 0 of 0
Jared Cannonier 28 of 46 60% 19 of 37 7 of 7 2 of 2 17 of 34 11 of 12 0 of 0
3 Nassourdine Imavov 18 of 30 60% 12 of 23 2 of 2 4 of 5 15 of 25 3 of 5 0 of 0
Jared Cannonier 21 of 32 65% 18 of 28 3 of 4 0 of 0 21 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Nassourdine Imavov 8 of 15 53% 5 of 10 2 of 3 1 of 2 8 of 14 0 of 1 0 of 0
Jared Cannonier 19 of 26 73% 17 of 24 2 of 2 0 of 0 14 of 20 5 of 6 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 7, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Jared Cannonier

Angelo picks Jared Cannonier, citing his impressive performance against Marvin Vettori where he showed forward pressure, takedowns, and cardio. He acknowledges that Imavov is good and just dominated Roman Dolidze, but he is impressed with Cannonier's last fight. He thinks the best version of Cannonier wins, and he is crossing his fingers that version shows up.

"I am going to slightly pick Jared caner and the only reason I'm picking him is based off of that last fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jared Cannonier

Big Brady picks Jared Cannonier to win by split decision. He notes that Cannonier is 40 but looks better than ever, with impressive wins over Marvin Vettori and Sean Strickland. He expects Imavov to have early success but fade, while Cannonier's five-round cardio and takedown defense will allow him to take over. He predicts a close 48-47 split decision.

"I'm going caner I'm going with the 40-year-old caner to get it done maybe losing the first round two rounds but taking over as the fight goes on and and winning a very close 4847 type Split Decision fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jared Cannonier

Cody picks Cannonier based on his proven cardio, durability, and experience against top competition. He notes Cannonier's ability to maintain high volume over five rounds, as seen in the Marvin Vettori fight where he landed 241 significant strikes. Cody acknowledges the concerns about Cannonier's age (40) and the two-year layoff due to an MCL tear, but believes his gas tank and power will be too much for Imavov, who has shown cardio issues in the past. He expects Cannonier to win a competitive decision.

"I got to go with the back class I got to go with the experience I got to go with the proven cardio The Proven durability The Proven experience the competition level all of that stuff Fades towards Jared koner …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Daniel leans towards Imavov due to his youth, speed, and improved defense since the Strickland fight. He worries about Imavov's high-energy style causing a late fade, allowing Cannonier to take over in the championship rounds. He notes Cannonier's durability and high output, especially in the Vettori fight, but sees Imavov's early movement and speed as key to banking rounds. Ultimately, he calls it a tough fight that could go either way.

"I'm leaning a little bit towards Nasser just a little bit but you know it's this is one where you can realistically see it going either way"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 7, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Jared Cannonier

Jacob is very confident in Jared Cannonier, stating he will not pick against him until someone beats him over five rounds. He notes that Imavov might have early success, but Cannonier's veteran savvy and cardio will take over. He predicts Cannonier wins a decision and makes another title run. He considered Cannonier as lock of the week but the odds were too close.

Jared Cannonier wins by decision
"until I see somebody beat Jared Canon there across five rounds I'm not picking against him"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jared Cannonier

Cannonier has power, speed, and explosiveness to crash the pocket and disrupt Imavov's range striking. Imavov may get demoralized when his range control fails, as seen against Strickland. Cannonier can land big shots, change levels for takedowns, and grind out a decision or even a KO. At +105, he's a solid underdog bet.

straight up at +105
"final prediction Jared cir by decision but straight up at plus 105 I think he's that's a that that's a good enough spot to take a trade bet on"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jared Cannonier

Paul leans towards Cannonier but is hesitant due to the injury and layoff. He notes that Cannonier's price at plus money seems like good value given his resume, but the torn MCL and age are concerns. Paul thinks Cannonier's reach advantage and pressure will be key, and he expects Imavov to struggle with Cannonier's volume and power as the fight goes on. He predicts a competitive fight but sees Cannonier getting the nod.

"I'm still going to go with cener based off of the body of work and that you know pre-injury ability to land insane volume over the course of five rounds against some of the top guys in the division but …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jared Cannonier

The Guru picks Cannonier because Imavov slows down in fights and lacks finishing instinct, as seen against Roman Dolidze and Buckley. He notes Cannonier gets better as the fight goes on and can walk Imavov down, chew up his legs, and work him against the cage in the later rounds. He says if it were a three-rounder he'd take Imavov, but in a five-rounder Cannonier builds into it and wins a split decision. He also mentions Cannonier looked phenomenal against Vettori and that Imavov hasn't shown he's clearly better than that level of middleweight.

Split decision prediction; says if three rounds would pick Imavov
"if this was a threee rounder I actually do take a mov to win five rounder I think caner will build into this and I think he'll actually beat imov by decision"
WIN vs Roman Dolidze
Decision (majority) (49–44, 47–47, 48–46) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov · Feb 03, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nassourdine Imavov 0 34 of 152 22% 59 of 190 0 of 4 0% 0 1 10:11
Roman Dolidze 1 112 of 189 59% 154 of 248 0 of 0 --- 1 0 3:52
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nassourdine Imavov 0 8 of 33 24% 8 of 35 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:28
Roman Dolidze 1 51 of 75 68% 69 of 109 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:10
2 Nassourdine Imavov 0 5 of 30 16% 17 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:43
Roman Dolidze 0 9 of 22 40% 14 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
3 Nassourdine Imavov 0 8 of 29 27% 15 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:17
Roman Dolidze 0 20 of 33 60% 26 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
4 Nassourdine Imavov 0 6 of 31 19% 11 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:33
Roman Dolidze 0 14 of 26 53% 22 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
5 Nassourdine Imavov 0 7 of 29 24% 8 of 30 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:10
Roman Dolidze 0 18 of 33 54% 23 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:34
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nassourdine Imavov 34 of 152 22% 14 of 113 8 of 13 12 of 26 32 of 145 2 of 7 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 112 of 189 59% 71 of 132 24 of 38 17 of 19 67 of 129 13 of 16 32 of 44
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nassourdine Imavov 8 of 33 24% 1 of 20 3 of 3 4 of 10 7 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 51 of 75 68% 35 of 54 9 of 13 7 of 8 18 of 31 5 of 6 28 of 38
2 Nassourdine Imavov 5 of 30 16% 4 of 26 0 of 0 1 of 4 4 of 29 1 of 1 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 9 of 22 40% 4 of 16 3 of 4 2 of 2 9 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Nassourdine Imavov 8 of 29 27% 4 of 22 1 of 2 3 of 5 8 of 25 0 of 4 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 20 of 33 60% 9 of 18 7 of 10 4 of 5 16 of 29 4 of 4 0 of 0
4 Nassourdine Imavov 6 of 31 19% 3 of 27 2 of 3 1 of 1 6 of 30 0 of 1 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 14 of 26 53% 10 of 19 1 of 4 3 of 3 12 of 23 1 of 1 1 of 2
5 Nassourdine Imavov 7 of 29 24% 2 of 18 2 of 5 3 of 6 7 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
Roman Dolidze 18 of 33 54% 13 of 25 4 of 7 1 of 1 12 of 24 3 of 5 3 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Angelo picks Nassourdine Imavov but also bets on Roman Dolidze inside the distance. He explains that Dolidze has the power and submissions to finish but cannot be trusted to grapple, as seen in his last fight. He expects Imavov to win by decision, using movement and striking. He places a bet on Dolidze inside the distance with decision no action.

Bet on Roman Dolidze inside the distance (decision no action)
"nardin's going to be the pick... I'm going to do inside the distance decision no action on Roman deled"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 29, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Big Brady picks Nassourdine Imavov to win a close decision. He notes that Imavov is a minute winner with high volume, while Dolidze is a moment winner with low volume but big shots. The five-round fight favors Imavov, as Dolidze has never gone five rounds and slows down. Brady expects Imavov to outland Dolidze and win a decision, though Dolidze could pull off a surprise finish.

decision, five rounds
"I'm GNA take the imav to win a pretty close decision here I think this does go the full five rounds"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 31, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Cody acknowledges both fighters are hard to read but leans to Dolidze as a plus money underdog. He notes Dolidze's Georgian toughness, improved cardio, and power, but worries about his low striking volume and reluctance to wrestle. He thinks if Dolidze stands and trades, Imavov's volume could outpoint him, but the dog price is worth a shot.

"plus 170 Roman deletes I'll take that Underdog shot"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jan 29, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Imavov has cleaner technique and more paths to victory, but Dolidze's forward pressure in a five-round fight could be the difference maker. Imavov needs to stay within himself, pick his shots from distance, and possibly cut Dolidze to sway judges. The host is hesitant due to the line and the five-round duration, but officially picks Imavov by decision.

Dolidze as a potential dog is mentioned, but no specific prop bet.
"I always like going with a fighter that has the cleaner technique more paths to victory... but at minus 160 it's a tough line... at five rounds Del's forward pressure could be the Difference Maker."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 31, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Paul is torn on the main event, calling it a pass from a betting perspective. He sees Imavov's cardio issues and Dolidze's size and strength advantages, but notes Dolidze's low output and questionable fight IQ. He slightly leans to Dolidze at plus money but says he likely won't bet it.

"I'll ever so slightly just go with that plus money"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

The MMA Guru picks Nassourdine Imavov over Roman Dolidze, predicting a third or fourth round TKO. He notes Dolidze is a slugger who struggles against fighters with good footwork on the back foot, which is Imavov's strength. He cites Imavov's performance against Sean Strickland and his wrestling ability to take down Chris Curtis. He believes Imavov will work Dolidze over with front kicks and low kicks, eventually catching him with a one-two down the pipe.

third or fourth round TKO
"I'm gonna go with nasaden mov over Roman delzy... I'll say third or fourth round TKO for nasaden mavo."
LOSS vs Chris Curtis
No Contest (accidental clash of heads) R2 3:04 · UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana · Jun 10, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nassourdine Imavov 0 57 of 84 67% 59 of 86 3 of 4 75% 1 0 2:22
Chris Curtis 0 26 of 61 42% 34 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nassourdine Imavov 0 29 of 36 80% 31 of 38 3 of 4 75% 1 0 2:07
Chris Curtis 0 15 of 32 46% 20 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Nassourdine Imavov 0 28 of 48 58% 28 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Chris Curtis 0 11 of 29 37% 14 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nassourdine Imavov 57 of 84 67% 27 of 48 8 of 12 22 of 24 54 of 80 3 of 4 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 26 of 61 42% 4 of 28 8 of 18 14 of 15 26 of 60 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nassourdine Imavov 29 of 36 80% 11 of 16 4 of 6 14 of 14 28 of 35 1 of 1 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 15 of 32 46% 1 of 12 5 of 10 9 of 10 15 of 31 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Nassourdine Imavov 28 of 48 58% 16 of 32 4 of 6 8 of 10 26 of 45 2 of 3 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 11 of 29 37% 3 of 16 3 of 8 5 of 5 11 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 4, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Angelo picks Nassourdine Imavov, but with hesitation. He notes that Chris Curtis is a great counter-striker but often backs up, which could lead to a decision loss. He believes Imavov's size and forward pressure will earn him a close decision. However, he admits he has never picked a Chris Curtis fight correctly, so he is fading his own pick.

"I picked nasridine which means Chris is going to win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jun 3, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Big Brady leans towards Imavov because Chris Curtis is a slow starter who often loses the first round. He notes that both fighters are durable with only one KO loss combined, so the fight likely goes to decision. Imavov's early activity should win him the first round, and the later rounds will be close. He picks Imavov by decision.

fight goes to decision
"I do lean towards the Nazarene imove offside is going to be this reason... Chris Curtis is a very slow starter... I don't see him knocking out nazarethov... this fight is Going the Distance more often than not"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Cody picks Imavov, arguing that Curtis has taken too much damage recently (319 significant strikes in 4 fights) and is fighting too frequently. He notes that Curtis' style has reverted to a Philly shell, and he struggles against rangy fighters who stay on the outside. Imavov has speed, youth, and a long jab, and can fight at range. He expects Imavov to stay on the outside and pick Curtis apart.

"I think he just stays at the outside and paints a picture"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Jun 9, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Chris Curtis

Connor agrees with Zane and picks Chris Curtis, though he is hesitant. He likes the way Curtis fights, describing him as a systematic pocket boxer with great hands and defense. Connor worries that Imavov could frustrate Curtis in short bursts, but notes that it's a three-round fight, so two rounds of Imavov's bursts might be enough. He ultimately sides with Curtis because he is a better fighter and more capable of closing doors when momentum shifts.

Curtis over 2.0 +105, currently +131; Imavov opened -116, now -146
"I'll pick I'll I'll stick with you and pick Chris Curtis here. I don't like it, but yeah, you see what I'm saying."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Daniel Levi picks Chris Curtis, agreeing with the co-host that Imavov does not have the volume or gas tank to implement the blueprint to beat Curtis. He notes that Curtis has excellent boxing, takedown defense, and body shots that can sap Imavov's cardio. He points out that Imavov has historically low output and has faded in fights, while Curtis is a dangerous counter-puncher. He believes the line offers value on Curtis.

"I really like Chris Curtis here"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Jun 10, 2023 (fight day)
Nassourdine Imavov

James picks Imavov to win by 29-28 decision. He thinks Imavov's range control and lead leg work will be key, and that Curtis struggles with fighters who don't stand in the pocket. He expects Imavov to win rounds one and two, with Curtis possibly taking round three. James notes Curtis is a good counter-striker but may take time to find his timing. He suggests live betting Curtis after round one if he loses it, as Curtis will likely be a bigger underdog then.

Chris Curtis KO round 3 at +2100 (small sprinkle)
"I'm calling it about a 29-28 win for a Marvel van"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jun 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Imavov's distance striking and kicking game should keep Curtis at range, frustrating his pocket boxing. Curtis has a significant size disadvantage (5-inch height difference) and may struggle to close distance. However, Curtis has KO power and could turn the fight if he drags Imavov into exchanges. Low confidence due to Curtis's finishing ability.

"I feel as though he is just more equipped to win this stylistic matchup not to mention the size disadvantage that Chris Curtis will be at"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Paul leans toward Imavov, agreeing with Cody's assessment. He notes that Curtis struggles to get into the pocket against fighters who stay at range, as seen in the Hermansson fight. The big cage in Vancouver will give Imavov room to move. However, Paul admits he cannot bet against Curtis with his own money because he likes him as a fighter.

"I'm with you I'm picking imov but I couldn't I couldn't I couldn't better but against our guy uh Chris Curtis with my actual money"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

The MMA Guru picks Chris Curtis as an underdog, noting Imavov slows down in fights and has cardio issues. He believes Curtis has great takedown defense and can stop Imavov's takedowns, making Imavov worry. He also mentions Curtis trains with Sean Strickland, who recently beat Imavov. He predicts Curtis wins by decision, possibly with a third-round TKO.

underdog pick, noted odds
"I am going to be picking Chris Curtis as an underdog here over nasadena mavov"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Jun 9, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Chris Curtis

Zane picks Chris Curtis despite acknowledging that Imavov has the stylistic advantages to frustrate Curtis like Jack Hermansson did. He notes that Imavov is tall, rangy, and faster than Hermansson, but lacks consistency and tends to gas. Zane trusts Curtis's ability to hang around and snatch momentum if Imavov loses a step, and he prefers Curtis's boxing and pocket fighting. He admits it's a bad style matchup but thinks Curtis is the better fighter.

Curtis over 2.0 +105, currently +131; Imavov opened -116, now -146
"I'm gonna pick Curtis here. I think the big the other big thing here is the buckley fight... Curtis is much more capable of taking small swings of momentum and using them to close doors than buckley is."
LOSS vs Sean Strickland
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 49–46, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov · Jan 14, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sean Strickland 0 182 of 405 44% 194 of 420 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:12
Nassourdine Imavov 0 123 of 269 45% 131 of 277 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sean Strickland 0 24 of 74 32% 24 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Nassourdine Imavov 0 19 of 50 38% 19 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Sean Strickland 0 22 of 72 30% 27 of 78 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:49
Nassourdine Imavov 0 22 of 58 37% 27 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Sean Strickland 0 47 of 78 60% 48 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Nassourdine Imavov 0 24 of 45 53% 24 of 45 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
4 Sean Strickland 0 57 of 100 57% 60 of 103 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:50
Nassourdine Imavov 0 23 of 51 45% 23 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
5 Sean Strickland 0 32 of 81 39% 35 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:19
Nassourdine Imavov 0 35 of 65 53% 38 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sean Strickland 182 of 405 44% 134 of 347 38 of 48 10 of 10 175 of 396 7 of 9 0 of 0
Nassourdine Imavov 123 of 269 45% 67 of 207 41 of 46 15 of 16 104 of 248 19 of 21 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sean Strickland 24 of 74 32% 16 of 64 5 of 7 3 of 3 24 of 74 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nassourdine Imavov 19 of 50 38% 8 of 36 8 of 10 3 of 4 19 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Sean Strickland 22 of 72 30% 13 of 60 8 of 11 1 of 1 21 of 70 1 of 2 0 of 0
Nassourdine Imavov 22 of 58 37% 14 of 50 4 of 4 4 of 4 19 of 54 3 of 4 0 of 0
3 Sean Strickland 47 of 78 60% 31 of 61 12 of 13 4 of 4 47 of 78 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nassourdine Imavov 24 of 45 53% 12 of 33 9 of 9 3 of 3 23 of 44 1 of 1 0 of 0
4 Sean Strickland 57 of 100 57% 47 of 87 8 of 11 2 of 2 56 of 99 1 of 1 0 of 0
Nassourdine Imavov 23 of 51 45% 10 of 36 8 of 10 5 of 5 21 of 49 2 of 2 0 of 0
5 Sean Strickland 32 of 81 39% 27 of 75 5 of 6 0 of 0 27 of 75 5 of 6 0 of 0
Nassourdine Imavov 35 of 65 53% 23 of 52 12 of 13 0 of 0 22 of 51 13 of 14 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Nassourdine Imavov vs. Sean Strickland
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Imavov (-115), Strickland (-105)

Round 1
We have reached the main event of the evening, one that the organization did not have in mind coming into 2023. Instead of Kelvin Gastelum, rising Frenchman Imavov (12-3, 4-1 UFC) will be battling Strickland (25-5, 12-5 UFC). Rather than fighting at middleweight, the two will be competing at light heavyweight. The weight difference is fairly stark, with Imavov clocking in at 194 pounds, a whole 10 pounds lighter than Strickland (204). Strickland will try to turn things around, as he is currently riding the first losing skid of his career, while Imavov has earned three straight wins on his own ledger. The last fight of the card will be joined by referee Mark Smith, and the two men are happy to be competing tonight and touch gloves. Strickland gets right in his foe’s face, but Imavov is the one striking first with a few straight punches and a low kick. The Frenchman connects with a left hook, and Strickland responds with a one-two down the pipe. Strickland uses his outstretched jab to parry a few punches, and he absorbs a punch at the end of it. Imavov winds up with a huge right hand over the top, and Strickland takes it flush and rolls to fire back with a one-two. Strickland prepares to shoulder roll, and he strings three punches together including a left hand straight down the middle. Strickland throws a front kick, and the two are warned for outstretched fingers while they come together. They hand-fight with long reaches, and Strickland finds an opening to kick the liver. Strickland slaps at the lead calf, and he hops away when Imavov charges. Imavov reaches Strickland with a right, and Strickland responds cleanly in kind to stun Imavov. Strickland reaches his man with punches in bunches, and Imavov tries to spin with a no-look elbow to no avail. Strickland rushes forward, pushing the pace and throwing hands, and he eats a few punches and swings much harder than he has in several fights. The wild swings of “Tarzan” lead into a clinch, and he presses Imavov to the wall and scores a short left on the break. Strickland leans back from a jab, and he absorbs a front kick and swats away a leaping right hand. Strickland gets in a jab as he works his way forward, and he wings a huge right hand that skims off the Frenchman’s hair. Imavov ducks and uses the top of his skull to block a punch, and Strickland does not blink and continues to walk forward. The American sees a telegraphed overhand right come at him so that he can counter with three or four punches, and these two overcommit to several powerful blows that blow back the hair of those seated in the first row of the Apex. Strickland plods forward, landing two punches and getting tied up right before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Strickland

Round 2
The middleweight expats meet right in the center of the cage to begin the second round, and they continue practically right where they left off. Strickland leads the dance, coming forward and pressuring the Frenchman actively. Imavov swings wildly, with a huge right hand skimming past Strickland’s shoulder. Strickland kicks the body and strings a few punches into the combination to follow, and this leads to a clinch. Strickland protests that Imavov is grabbing his glove, but Smith does not intervene or remark on it. The fighters split up, and Strickland puts a one-two together and unloads with a hellacious right hand on the button. Imavov absorbs it surprisingly, and he starts swinging back dangerously. Both men are wearing it and slightly hurt from the brief brawl that ensued. Strickland changes levels suddenly to trip Imavov to the mat, but he cannot hold him there for long. Imavov walks up the wall with it at his back, and he pushes off with a front kick to gain some space. Imavov lands a right hand, and Strickland replies with a one-two and a wild right hand. Neither fighter appears quite the technical wizard as per usual as they flail and swing awkwardly arcing punches at one another, and this results in one more clinch. Imavov eventually escapes, and he times a Strickland jab to smash him in the face with a right hand. Strickland gets shoved back with a knee, elbow and punch, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Imavov
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Imavov
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Imavov

Round 3
Round 3 begins with tit-for-tat strikes from one man and the other. Strickland breaks up this exchange with a leg kick, and he nails the Frenchman with a left hand and a right to follow. Imavov welcomes the brief brawl, and they both score with punishing blows and either budge an inch. They break away from their proverbial phone-booth fight to let Imavov circle on the outside, and he flirts with a high kick and suddenly reaches with a straight right hand. Strickland rolls with a punch and scores a left, and he cannot get out of the way from a left on the jaw. With his chin tucked, Strickland does not bat an eye, and the two proceed to stand right in front of one another punching the other in the face. Strickland catches the hands of his opponent and swipes out a left hand, and he marches forward to snap out a few jabs. Imavov dives into a single that misses by a mile, and Strickland lets him back up and shrugs off a few punches. When Imavov kicks low, Strickland counters him with a left over the top. Strickland jabs his way in to closer exchanges, and he scoops a right hand that slugs right into Imavov’s chops. Imavov bounces on his feet to shake things off, and they trade front kicks to the belly. Strickland times a counter on the jaw, and the pace has understandably slowed after how hard the two not-middleweights were throwing for the first few rounds. Strickland jabs, Imavov responds, and this spurs Strickland into action with a big right hand and a left. Imavov cannot dodge a body kick, and he lets Strickland grab him and tries to spin with an elbow. Strickland ducks it after landing a front kick, and the round comes to an end.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Strickland

Round 4
The championship rounds have been reached, and this is a first for France’s Imavov. Strickland flusters him out of the gate with a low kick, a body kick and several jabs. Strickland pushes out a one-two before Imavov can respond, and Imavov pushes forward but only hand-fights. Strickland kicks the ribs and smacks Imavov with another fierce one-two, and this leads to Imavov grabbing his hands standing. Imavov presses forward with his shoulder into a clinch situation, but Strickland shrugs it off and gets back to his preferred striking range. Strickland paws out a few punches and gets his head snapped back with a left, but he drives the ball of his foot to the body in response. Imavov swats kicks his foe’s way, but they are half-hearted. Imavov absorbs a few punches from up top, and he answers by throwing fire. Strickland pops Imavov with a right hand, and his sheer momentum knocks Imavov to his back. Strickland does not want to take him to the ground, and instead they return to the clinch up against the cage wall. Strickland uses his full body weight as a weapon, as if he wanted to squeeze Imavov through the fence like French Play-Do. Imavov manages to break off and escape with a right hand over the guard, and Strickland makes him pay with a short combination. Strickland is confident in his approach, calmly walking the French fighter down and smacking him upside the head with his fists. Imavov flails and tries to parry the blows with his outstretched arms, but Strickland still manages to find his dome repeatedly. Imavov bends over upon receipt of a body kick, and Strickland pours it on with several more unanswered blows. Imavov goes for a clinch, and Strickland walks him from one side of the cage to the other before releasing him gingerly. The round ends, and both men appear spent.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Strickland

Round 5
The last round commences, and Strickland strikes first with a front kick and a few punches. Imavov swings back as his punches careen off the guard, and Strickland snipes him from afar. When Imavov tries to come out swinging, Strickland intercepts him with a front kick to the belly. Imavov unloads with heavy blows, and Strickland wears them well and greets him in the middle of the cage with a flurry of his own. The two close in as they fatigue after an exchange, and they clinch up. Imavov changes his offense to slashing elbows from up tight, and Strickland dodges the brunt of them and splits. Strickland punches his way to close the distance, and Imavov catches him and tries to slice him with elbows. Strickland breaks off and connects with a jab, before going back to the clinch to frustrate the Frenchman. “Tarzan” takes the most dangerous tools away from a desperate Imavov with the clinches, and he uses his jabs and twos to keep Imavov honest. Imavov tries to break off when Strickland latches on to him, or gets off a singular elbow, but they are not enough to stave Strickland off. Imavov breaks off and looses a fury of blows, and Strickland retaliates with a slow but steady barrage. Imavov smashes two elbows on the orbital, and he pushes Strickland to the wall and breaks free. Strickland ducks down and right into an elbow, and Imavov meets him with a knee up the middle. Imavov throws with everything he has, swinging recklessly and wildly while Strickland is doing some of the same. Imavov ducks two booming hooks, and Strickland nods and motion down to the floor. The two fighters give it everything they have with an exhausted swarm of punches, knees, elbows and anything else they come up with. Strickland bullies Imavov back to the wall, and the final horn blares to signal an end to the fight card. The short turnaround appeared to work in his favor, as he should right the ship after this 25-minute affair. Next week, the UFC takes to Brazil for the first time in years. Two belts will be on the line, including one in the UFC’s very first tetralogy match, and we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Imavov (48-47 Strickland)
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Imavov (48-47 Strickland)
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Imavov (48-47 Strickland)

The Official Result
Sean Strickland def. Nassourdine Imavov via Unanimous Decision (49-46, 49-46, 48-47)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Angelo picks Imavov because he believes Sean Strickland is a broken fighter after the Alex Pereira knockout. He notes Strickland's recent losses and short notice, while Imavov has power and grappling. He thinks Strickland's jab-heavy style won't be enough and Imavov controls the pace. He mentions Imavov's cardio concerns are overblown and that Strickland's only path is if Imavov tires.

"I gotta go with imov off here and I think you get some really good money on him at minus 109"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jan 9, 2023 (5 days before fight)

Big Brady picks Kelvin Gastelum for the upset, citing concerns about Imavov's cardio over five rounds. He notes that Imavov faded in the third round of his fight against Buckley and has never gone five rounds, while Gastelum has championship-round experience against top competition. He believes Gastelum's wrestling could be a key path to victory, taking Imavov down to tire him out and avoid striking exchanges. However, he admits he doesn't feel great about the pick and likely won't bet on the fight.

Not betting on this fight; Gastelum by decision
"I'm gonna take a gaslim here for the upset I don't feel great about it like I said I'm very high in imovob but the five rounds scares the crap out of me"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

Cody picks Strickland, citing his durability, high striking volume (e.g., 152 against Cannonier), and takedown defense. He notes Imavov's questionable cardio and level of competition (outside top 15). He expects a 25-minute fight or a late stoppage by Strickland, but acknowledges the line is 50/50 and not a high-confidence play.

"I think I'm gonna lean towards Sean Strickland think this one probably goes to 25 minutes if not like a late fourth or fifth round stoppage by Sean Strickland"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

Connor picks Strickland because Imavov has yet to look like a comfortable three-round fighter, often fading in the third round due to inefficient movement and tension. He notes that Strickland is insanely durable, calm, and consistent round to round, and that Imavov's style of head-hunting and inefficient striking will be a problem against Strickland's pressure. Connor also mentions that Imavov has feasted on shorter opponents and struggled against fighters who can get into range and trade, which Strickland does well. He acknowledges the short notice and weight change but believes Strickland's constant training mitigates those factors.

Odds: Strickland opened +145, dropped to -120, currently -110. Imavov opened -170, jumped to +100, currently -112. Connor says he's okay with even odds given the short notice and last-minute change.
"I'm going to bank with you that he's a guy who always stays ready. Who's always sparring. He doesn't need to gameplay and he's not going to come in with something wildly different."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Jacob is confident in Imavov, having bet him at +100. He argues Strickland is overrated and not the same after the Pereira loss, citing his inactivity in the Cannonier fight. He believes Imavov's power at 205 will be too much and Strickland will be tentative. He sees Strickland's only path to victory if Imavov gasses, but thinks Imavov showed heart against Buckley.

Bet at +100 for premium members
"I jumped on at plus 100 I don't think you're gonna see that again"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Paul leans towards Imavov because he has been preparing for this card while Strickland is coming off a short-notice fight and the holidays. He questions Strickland's training and notes that judges are crediting damaging strikes more than volume jabs. However, he is not rushing to bet this fight, calling it a 50/50 main event.

"I'm gonna ever lean ever so slightly towards Nassar Dean imov he's been getting ready for this exact card I don't know what Strickland's really been up to"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

Zane picks Strickland because he believes Imavov's style is a bad matchup for him. He notes that Imavov is dependent on physically bullying opponents and hasn't experienced someone who pushes back in physical tie-ups like Strickland. Zane also points out that Imavov's cardio issues are likely due to being too tense and inefficient, not weight cutting, and that Strickland doesn't give anything away. He acknowledges the size difference but thinks Strickland's consistency and pressure will be key.

Odds: Strickland opened +145, dropped to -120, currently -110. Imavov opened -170, jumped to +100, currently -112. Zane says he's okay with even odds.
"I got to pick Strickland here. Like I if I'm just thinking about this fight from a base point, like thinking of the tape I've been watching, thinking of how much him evolve is willing to let his opponents dictate …"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuivasa · Sep 03, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nassourdine Imavov 0 51 of 109 46% 68 of 142 2 of 7 28% 2 0 3:56
Joaquin Buckley 0 46 of 174 26% 55 of 183 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nassourdine Imavov 0 15 of 35 42% 21 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:43
Joaquin Buckley 0 10 of 48 20% 13 of 51 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:22
2 Nassourdine Imavov 0 14 of 30 46% 25 of 56 1 of 1 100% 2 0 2:10
Joaquin Buckley 0 10 of 45 22% 12 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Nassourdine Imavov 0 22 of 44 50% 22 of 44 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:03
Joaquin Buckley 0 26 of 81 32% 30 of 85 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nassourdine Imavov 51 of 109 46% 40 of 90 9 of 13 2 of 6 36 of 88 8 of 10 7 of 11
Joaquin Buckley 46 of 174 26% 27 of 145 8 of 13 11 of 16 44 of 171 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nassourdine Imavov 15 of 35 42% 11 of 29 4 of 5 0 of 1 6 of 21 4 of 5 5 of 9
Joaquin Buckley 10 of 48 20% 3 of 35 1 of 4 6 of 9 10 of 47 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Nassourdine Imavov 14 of 30 46% 12 of 24 1 of 3 1 of 3 12 of 28 0 of 0 2 of 2
Joaquin Buckley 10 of 45 22% 4 of 37 3 of 5 3 of 3 10 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Nassourdine Imavov 22 of 44 50% 17 of 37 4 of 5 1 of 2 18 of 39 4 of 5 0 of 0
Joaquin Buckley 26 of 81 32% 20 of 73 4 of 4 2 of 4 24 of 79 2 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Joaquin Buckley vs. Nassourdine Imavov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Imavov (-255), Buckley (+215)

Round 1
On fight day, this relatively high-stakes middleweight tilt shifted from the prelims to the “featured fight of the night” slot, as proud Frenchman Imavov (11-3, 3-1 UFC) is a member of the top 15 in his division. Buckley (15-4, 5-2 UFC), the owner of a number of highlight-reel victories including one of the greatest knockouts in the history of the sport, will face him as he seeks to make the Parisian audience sad and chalk up one more name on his ledger. This potentially violent clash at 185 pounds will draw officiating from referee Marc Goddard, who is nearly forced to step in when the two angrily meet in the middle of the cage before what might be a magnificent melee. Buckley is already the least popular man in the building right now, and he starts off aggressively with a high kick that bounces off the shoulder. Imavov shrugs it off and comes forward, with a more traditional martial arts stance, prepared for the head kick that will almost certainly come towards him. One more does fly, and Imavov ignores it and tries to reach out with his jab. While they measure one another with range strikes, commentator Michael Bisping gives his best Mr. T impression. Buckley throws a low kick, and the Frenchman meets him with a straight right hand over the top. Imavov aims an uppercut when Buckley closes the distance, but the American plays it off and clinches up. Buckley separates, and Imavov follows him enraged. They slug it out, and a front kick from Imavov sends Buckley’s mouthpiece goes flying. Goddard steps in to allow Buckley to replace it, and Imavov ignores him and wants to keep fighting. Goddard lays down the law, shoving the French fighter back until they reset. When they resume, Imavov kicks and falls over, and he springs back up to attack with a right hand that drops Buckley to a knee against the wire. Buckley powers his way back up and throws and elbow, and he wings a pair of punches as Imavov talks at him. “New Mansa” kicks the leg, and he swarms forward with punches that Imavov rolls with. Imavov sticks him with a jab, and he uses his head movement and footwork to evade the lion’s share of a long combination from Buckley. The American does land a punch as he surges forward, but Imavov escapes largely untouched and resets. Buckley comes up short with a low kick, and Imavov comes in with a knee to intercept a high kick. Buckley pushes Imavov against the fence, and he fires off an elbow as Imavov responds in kind. Imavov counters a rushing takedown from Buckley to push the American on his back, and he climbs right to full mount and begins to batter Buckley with unanswered punches. Buckley turns over to his belly and shells up, but before the stoppage can materialize, Buckley is saved by the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Imavov
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Imavov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Imavov

Round 2
Imavov keeps both hands outstretched as the second round opens, with neither man committing to much of a strike in the first 30 seconds. Buckley lands a low kick, and as he rushes forward, Imavov pops him with a pair of right hands that send Buckley running to the side. Buckley gathers himself and darts in with an overhand left, and Imavov pushes him off with his hand and jams him in the eye with his thumb. Goddard issues a hard warning to Imavov for his fingers outstretched and eye pokes, and they get back to it after a few seconds. Buckley is fired up and throws big punches, and Imavov stays moving and away from the worst of the strikes. Imavov catches Buckley on the way in with longer punches, with his range and footwork giving Buckley fits. Buckley walks through a left hand so that he can clip the Frenchman with a pair of huge left hands, and Imavov rolls with the punches and escapes out the side as the back of his head bumps a cameraman. Buckley throws caution to the wind as he jumps in and out, and his strike attempts force him to move quickly in and out so that Imavov cannot snipe him from a distance. Imavov times a lunging strike to duck down and hit a double, and he puts Buckley down on the mat with emphasis. Imavov steps over to half guard on the side to start blasting Buckley in the face, and Buckley turns in hopes of standing but ends up giving up his back. Imavov is quick to hook in the body triangle without crushing it tightly, and he hunts for a rear-naked choke. The Frenchman cannot get his forearm under the chin, so he crushes on the face, but Buckley grits it out and turns his head enough to lessen the squeeze. Imavov starts talking to Buckley as he goes for chokes, and he belts him with an elbow that slashes a cut open as blood sprays from the side of Buckley’s head. Imavov squeezes for another choke, and Buckley’s mouthpiece squirts out of his mouth. Imavov slaps Buckley on the side of the head repeatedly with an open palm until the round ends, and he does not immediately get up and let Buckley go, forcing Goddard to once more get involved.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Imavov
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Imavov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Imavov

Round 3
Cooler heads prevail to start off the last round, and Buckley opens up as the immediate aggressor, knowing he is down on the scorecards. Buckley chops down the lead leg of his opponent on both sides, and he shrugs off an uppercut that catches him about as cleanly as one can so that he can brawl. Buckley leaps forward into action, and he tags Imavov several times and knocks the Frenchman back to the wire. Imavov breaks free of a clinch and threatens with a takedown, but Buckley is upright and able to keep coming strong. Buckley starts swinging wildly, with Mortal Kombat-esque uppercuts and ridiculously arcing punches that slam into Imavov’s guard again and again. Buckley is putting everything he has into the punches, and Imavov is able to slip most of them and block many of the others. A few get through, but Imavov’s chin is able to tank them, and he is able to counter effectively and keep Buckley honest. Buckley telegraphs with wide swings, and they come in combinations and not as single strikes. Buckley puts his foot on the gas, lobbing bombs, and Imavov is able to wear them as he begins to fatigue. The Frenchman attempts to take the fight down, and Buckley has none of it and keeps winging haymakers. Imavov tries his best to slow the fight down, and Buckley cracks him with an elbow and fires off an eight-punch hook combination. Buckley stuffs a takedown and fires a blistering knee that would have felled lesser men, but Imavov is ironclad in front of him. Buckley pushes off of a clinch with sheer muscle, tripping Imavov to the mat, but he does not follow. He lets Imavov back up so that he can load up on one last series of punches. Imavov showboats and salutes the crowd as he ducks and dips most of Buckley’s wild strikes, and he pops Buckley in the chops a few times just to keep active on his own end. As the last few seconds tick off the clock, “New Mansa” pours it on to chase a finish, and Imavov is simply too evasive to absorb much of the onslaught. The fight ends, and Buckley collapses to his back, totally spent. What a brawl this turned into. As the 15-minute furious fight comes to a close, the two appear to squash their beef, and for good reason, as they just threw down for three hard rounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Buckley (29-28 Imavov)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Buckley (29-28 Imavov)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Buckley (29-28 Imavov)

The Official Result
Nassourdine Imavov def. Joaquin Buckley via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 27, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

Angelo picks Joaquin Buckley as a lean because he believes Buckley is faster, more powerful, and more dangerous in a kickboxing match. He notes Imavov doesn't use takedowns much, so it becomes a striking fight. He suggests betting under on rounds or fight doesn't go the distance, and recommends a win inside distance decision no action prop for Buckley.

Under on rounds (1.5); fight does not go the distance; win inside distance decision no action
"i do like buckley here and even though he's a good grappler imam doesn't really have those takedowns"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Big Brady picks Nassourdine Imavov to win by knockout in the second round. He believes Imavov is the better striker and more durable, while Buckley gets hurt often and has been knocked out multiple times. He expects Buckley to have moments, but Imavov will eventually land a big shot and finish him.

second round knockout
"give me involved to win by knockout i say second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Cody leans toward Nassourdine Imavov but is not confident. He notes that Imavov has looked better recently, but his takedown defense and cardio are questionable. Buckley is physically strong and has power, but he is inconsistent and has poor cardio. Cody thinks the fight could go either way and prefers the 'fight goes to decision' prop at +155.

Fight goes to decision (+155)
"I'm leaning towards notre dame imav to get the win but actually what i think is actually the best value um of this fight his fight goes to decision is plus 155."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Daniel Levi leans toward Nassourdine Imavov but thinks the -275 price is too steep. He acknowledges Buckley's improvements and power, but believes Imavov is the better fighter with reach and straight punches. He does not bet.

"I do lean nazarian imavov man for sure I just don't know if I minus 275 is not a lean price"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

The host likes Imavov's recent improvements, especially his takedown defense and range striking. He believes Imavov will keep the fight at distance, use his kicks, and avoid Buckley's power. He expects Imavov to win by decision, though he notes the -255 price is a bit steep. He also considers the over 1.5 rounds if the line is favorable.

over 1.5 rounds (minus 160 to minus 150)
"I like Imavov here minus 255 a little bit out of my price range honestly."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Paul also leans toward Imavov but is hesitant. He agrees with Cody that the line is scary and that Buckley has a puncher's chance. Paul mentions that Imavov is fighting in France, which could be an advantage, but he is not confident enough to bet the moneyline.

"I kind of agree... i just think the line kind of scares me off of it."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 29, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

The MMA Guru picks Joaquin Buckley as an underdog over Nassourdine Imavov. He believes Buckley has improved significantly since his early UFC losses and has momentum, while Imavov has been inactive and may overlook Buckley. He compares Buckley's style to Mike Tyson's head movement and hooks, which he thinks will trouble Imavov's inside game. He predicts Buckley will win a 29-28 decision, winning the first two rounds and losing the third.

Buckley wins by decision 29-28
"i'm gonna go with joaquin buckley here over nasa dina mavov i like a nice joaquin buckley underdog pick"
Chris Curtis - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · Mar 14, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Curtis 0 12 of 31 38% 57 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Myktybek Orolbai 0 20 of 28 71% 83 of 102 19 of 24 79% 0 0 12:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Curtis 0 2 of 10 20% 12 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Myktybek Orolbai 0 16 of 21 76% 49 of 65 7 of 8 87% 0 0 4:02
2 Chris Curtis 0 6 of 13 46% 20 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Myktybek Orolbai 0 2 of 3 66% 25 of 26 7 of 9 77% 0 0 4:13
3 Chris Curtis 0 4 of 8 50% 25 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Myktybek Orolbai 0 2 of 4 50% 9 of 11 5 of 7 71% 0 0 4:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Curtis 12 of 31 38% 6 of 25 6 of 6 0 of 0 9 of 28 2 of 2 1 of 1
Myktybek Orolbai 20 of 28 71% 13 of 18 3 of 4 4 of 6 5 of 10 1 of 1 14 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Curtis 2 of 10 20% 1 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Myktybek Orolbai 16 of 21 76% 13 of 16 2 of 2 1 of 3 3 of 5 0 of 0 13 of 16
2 Chris Curtis 6 of 13 46% 4 of 11 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 11 1 of 1 1 of 1
Myktybek Orolbai 2 of 3 66% 0 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 1
3 Chris Curtis 4 of 8 50% 1 of 5 3 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 7 1 of 1 0 of 0
Myktybek Orolbai 2 of 4 50% 0 of 1 1 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Angelo confidently picks Myktybek Orolbai, believing his relentless wrestling and pressure will be too much for Chris Curtis. He notes that Curtis had the highest takedown defense in middleweight but was taken down easily by Brendan Allen, and expects Orolbai to do the same. He thinks Orolbai will cruise to a decision win.

"I don't see Chris Curtis winning this fight. ... Motorbec's going to be the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Big Brady picks Myktybek Orolbai to win by decision. He is concerned about Chris Curtis's age (38), layoff, and recent close fight with Max Griffin. He believes Orolbai is younger, hits harder, has wrestling upside, and is durable. He thinks Curtis's takedown defense, while good, hasn't been tested by wrestlers like Orolbai.

"I'm definitely going to My Titty Back here. I'm going to take My Titty Back to win this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Cody leans Curtis as a dog, citing his superior striking and takedown defense. He notes Orolbai's clunky technique and hittability. He thinks Curtis can outpoint him or catch him, but acknowledges Curtis is 39 and declining.

"I think I'm going to take a small little shot down the action man for old time sake."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Mar 13, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Connor picks Orolbai, citing Curtis's tendency to lose focus and get distracted in fights, especially as he ages. He notes that Orolbai's relentless pressure could frustrate Curtis, leading to him arguing with the ref instead of fighting. He also mentions that Curtis has a history of finding ways to lose.

Orolbai opened at -250, currently -265; Curtis opened at +210, currently +225
"I think he is very clearly losing focus as he gets older and finding little distractions to get mad about in fights. ... And when a fighter gets to that point, unless they're in a really generous matchup, I just …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

James picks Myktybek Orolbai to win by decision, citing his volume, grappling upside, and the fact that Curtis often underperforms. He notes Curtis is a better striker but may be outworked and taken down. He calls it a strange fight and a potential stayaway for betting.

"I'm going to pick Oro to win the fight via decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 10, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

The host picks Orolbai to win by decision but is hesitant due to the high price. He expects Orolbai's aggression and output to overwhelm Curtis, but acknowledges Curtis is the better striker and could land a knockout. He notes that Orolbai's grappling may not be as effective against Curtis's defensive grappling, so the fight likely stays standing where Orolbai's pressure could edge him rounds. He suggests a hedge on Curtis by KO in round 3.

Curtis round 3 KO hedge
"I think Oro still gets the win here. I think he wins by decision. But I would think twice about this level of chalk against a veteran like Chris Curtis."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Paul picks Orolbai, citing his size, power, and youth. He notes Curtis' age and recent split decisions. He thinks Orolbai can bully Curtis and get a finish or decision.

"Oro by a minus 285 favorite to come back on. Your boy the action man plus 245."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2026 (fight day)
Myktybek Orolbai

The Guru picks Myktybek Orolbai, citing his lightweight-level skills and toughness. He notes that Curtis struggled against Jack Hermansson, who Orolbai destroyed, and that Curtis's move to welterweight may not help. He predicts a TKO win for Orolbai.

Prediction: TKO
"I think Myktybek Orolbai is going to handle Chris Curtis... by TKO."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Mar 13, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Chris Curtis

Zane picks Chris Curtis despite being burned by him before. He believes Orolbai's unhampered aggression and lack of management tools will play into Curtis's counterpunching style. He notes Curtis's defensive wrestling and ability to catch Orolbai coming in, but acknowledges Curtis's tendency to lose focus and get frustrated.

Orolbai opened at -250, currently -265; Curtis opened at +210, currently +225
"I'll, I'll take Chris Curtis here. I just think a Ralby's unhampered aggression and complete lack of like management tools around that."
WIN vs Max Griffin
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Teixeira · Jul 12, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Max Griffin 0 59 of 178 33% 63 of 185 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:03
Chris Curtis 0 64 of 155 41% 71 of 162 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Max Griffin 0 21 of 48 43% 22 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:34
Chris Curtis 0 8 of 32 25% 11 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Max Griffin 0 17 of 58 29% 19 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
Chris Curtis 0 21 of 52 40% 23 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
3 Max Griffin 0 21 of 72 29% 22 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Curtis 0 35 of 71 49% 37 of 73 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Max Griffin 59 of 178 33% 38 of 147 14 of 21 7 of 10 58 of 175 1 of 3 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 64 of 155 41% 44 of 132 18 of 21 2 of 2 61 of 149 3 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Max Griffin 21 of 48 43% 14 of 38 4 of 6 3 of 4 20 of 47 1 of 1 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 8 of 32 25% 5 of 29 3 of 3 0 of 0 8 of 31 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Max Griffin 17 of 58 29% 12 of 51 2 of 3 3 of 4 17 of 57 0 of 1 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 21 of 52 40% 15 of 46 4 of 4 2 of 2 19 of 50 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Max Griffin 21 of 72 29% 12 of 58 8 of 12 1 of 2 21 of 71 0 of 1 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 35 of 71 49% 24 of 57 11 of 14 0 of 0 34 of 68 1 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Max Griffin vs. Chris Curtis
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Curtis (-310); Griffin (+250)

Round 1
One win away from getting his .500 UFC record back, Griffin (20-11, 8-9 UFC) will be staring across the cage from Curtis (31-12, 1 NC; 5-4, 1 NC UFC). There are no more rules in MMA, as Curtis was able two weeks ago to violate one of the most seemingly inviolable rules of corner interference by
outright attacking his defeated fighter’s opponent
without so much as a whimper from the Nevada State Athletic Commission. “The Action Man” was so starved for action that he recently crashed Luis Hernandez’ victory party at Tuff-N-Uff 145, helping teammate Sean Strickland put hands on Hernandez. It’s time for these welterweights to bang it out with referee Justin Brown watching on. They don’t touch gloves.
Griffin springs after Curtis, pawing out short left hands that do not land. This continues for about 30 seconds, until “Pain” releases a painful calf kick. Curtis checks the second, and he eats a right hand down the pipe when countered. Curtis lunges with a single left hand, pulling back to reset. He stands still waiting for Griffin to come to him, suddenly releasing a pair of punches. Griffin launches a low kick, clacking square into Curtis’ cup loudly. The crowd unleashes boos, possibly doubting he took the illegal blow, but the replay confirms the contact. Brown gives Curtis time to recover, and after a minute, he is good to go. Griffin pump-fakes several times with his legs, but no one is really actually engaging. Curtis steps in to attack, and he complains to Brown that he was headbutted.
Brown tells him to fight on, blood flowing from the wound on Curtis’ head, and Curtis is fired up. He rushes at Griffin hurling punches, his vision partially obscured from the leaking head wound. He strings three punches together, and Griffin snaps his head back and makes Curtis smile. Curtis stalks after Griffin, enjoying himself now, and he takes a left hand so he can pound Griffin in the stomach and temple. Griffin sticks him with a right hand, getting on his bike to move and stay off the gunnery range. Curtis backs him to the wall, and Griffin springboards to get out. Curtis pins him down with a few punches, and he is grappled by “Pain.” Griffin pushes him to the fencing, separating with seconds left and taking a knee to the jaw. Curtis lashes out, grinning like a banshee, but nothing cleanly connects as the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Griffin

Round 2
The cut across Curtis’ eyebrow is sealed between rounds, but it is deep and wide. The two chatter at one another while trading hands, chasing one another around with momentum shifts. Curtis drills Griffin with a right hook, and Griffin has to hurry to get away before taking further damage. Griffin lets loose with a head kick that stuns Curtis, and as he tries to finish the job, Curtis nails him with a counter to put Griffin down. Griffin jumps back up, and Curtis is on him, swinging harder and with meaner intentions. The right hand from “The Action Man” splits a cut on the side of Griffin’s left eye, and he swings at the same spot when lunging. Griffin strafes to the side and looses a few punches to keep Curtis honest. Curtis slips as he engages, but is no worse for wear.
Curtis misses a massive uppercut by a matter of inches, and he continues to march after the older fighter. Curtis misses on a body kick, and he lands to put a right hand in Griffin’s face. Griffin kicks Curtis in the face, and Curtis completely ignores it but tells Brown that Griffin headbutted him again. The clinch results in a stalemate, and the spoiled fans in the building start booing quickly. The fighters trade knees when tied up before breaking apart, where Griffin gets off a one-two on the break. Curtis goes right after him, headhunting all the while, and Griffin tags him with a right. A second nearly stumbles Curtis, with his own strikes drawing no reaction from “Pain.” Griffin steps in to drive a shovel right hand to the torso, and Curtis grimaces and fires back with a knee. He then activates a reaching combination of punches, with Curtis knocking Griffin back and off the wall. They clinch up again, and Curtis catches him on the way out with a left hand. They hurl fists at one another until the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Curtis
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Curtis
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Curtis

Round 3
Curtis introduces himself with a pair of tight jabs, using them to break up the big swings from the advancing Griffin. Griffin fires right back, ending a salvo with a head kick that rebounds off the raised guard. Curtis walks his man down, and Griffin tags him a few times on the way in. Curtis ducks face-first into a right hand, and he takes a solid body kick that slips beneath his guard. He walks Griffin down to stab him in the torso with a long punch, and he keeps swinging until Griffin knocks him back with a right hand. The head movement from Curtis keeps him safe as he tries to remain in the pocket with his opponent, putting short combos together to decent effect. Griffin looses a few body shots and a head kick, and Curtis retaliates with similar punches.
When Curtis ducks again, Griffin times a head kick, but it is the body shot of Curtis that is doing some damage. Griffin backpedals, sucking wind a little, and Curtis lays into him with unanswered strikes. Griffin ducks and counters one with a right hand over the top, and he tries to answer Curtis back with his firepower. The short hooks do not have the same effect as Curtis’ wide swings, but they are effective at keeping Curtis from walking over him. Curtis lands with a hard right, and he finds his home with a left before Griffin tries to tie him up. Griffin marches forward, and Curtis trips him to the mat and smiles at him from ear-to-ear. It takes Griffin a moment to get up, and the two proceed to let one another have it. Knees, head kicks and plenty of fists fly as they ride out the remainder of the clock waging battle. Time expires, and they leave this in the hands of the judges.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Curtis (29-28 Curtis)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Curtis (29-28 Curtis)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Curtis (29-28 Curtis)

The Official Result
Chris Curtis def. Max Griffin via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 6, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Angelo picks Chris Curtis but expresses concern about his weight cut to welterweight at 37 years old, especially after a recent knockout. He thinks Curtis is the cleaner striker with good takedown defense, but worries about his chin durability after cutting weight. He notes that if the fight is actually at 185, he would be more confident and would bet on Curtis.

Concerned about weight cut; if fight is at 185, would bet on Curtis.
"Chris Curtis is going to be the pick. I don't love these odds going down in weight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Big Brady likes Chris Curtis as the better striker with higher volume and power. He notes Curtis has elite takedown defense and the fight will stay standing. He mentions Curtis went toe-to-toe with Roman Kopylov. He picks Curtis by decision but warns the line is wide and judges could be an issue.

decision
"Curtis by decision for me."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 9, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

The host is high on Curtis moving down to 170 lbs, where he spent most of his career before the UFC. He thinks this will be a great matchup for Curtis to showcase his danger at welterweight and expects him to finish Griffin in the second or third round. The pick is based on Curtis's experience at the weight and his finishing ability.

finish in round 2 or 3
"Curtis going down to 170 lbs, which is where he has spent the majority of his career before joining the UFC. I think this will be a great uh sign for him that he's going to start moving up. I …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

The MMA Guru picks Chris Curtis, noting he is a 3-to-1 favorite. He criticizes Max Griffin's split decision win over Tim Means and believes Curtis would finish Means. He highlights Curtis' experience (12 more pro fights) and his competitive performances against Brendan Allen and Roman Kopylov. He expects Curtis to keep the fight standing, use body shots, and finish Griffin by TKO in the second or third round.

second or third round TKO, body shot related
"I'm going with Chris Curtis over Max Griffin. He is the favorite here. 3 to one favorite."
LOSS vs Roman Kopylov
TKO (head kick) R3 4:59 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · Jan 11, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Roman Kopylov 0 142 of 261 54% 146 of 265 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Curtis 1 130 of 307 42% 133 of 310 1 of 6 16% 0 0 0:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Roman Kopylov 0 42 of 83 50% 42 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Curtis 0 48 of 110 43% 48 of 110 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Roman Kopylov 0 58 of 104 55% 59 of 105 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Curtis 0 38 of 96 39% 38 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Roman Kopylov 0 42 of 74 56% 45 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Curtis 1 44 of 101 43% 47 of 104 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:49
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Roman Kopylov 142 of 261 54% 107 of 204 30 of 52 5 of 5 142 of 261 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 130 of 307 42% 91 of 266 14 of 16 25 of 25 124 of 300 4 of 5 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Roman Kopylov 42 of 83 50% 32 of 62 8 of 19 2 of 2 42 of 83 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 48 of 110 43% 33 of 93 6 of 8 9 of 9 46 of 108 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Roman Kopylov 58 of 104 55% 42 of 78 14 of 24 2 of 2 58 of 104 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 38 of 96 39% 25 of 83 3 of 3 10 of 10 38 of 96 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Roman Kopylov 42 of 74 56% 33 of 64 8 of 9 1 of 1 42 of 74 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 44 of 101 43% 33 of 90 5 of 5 6 of 6 40 of 96 2 of 3 2 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Chris Curtis vs. Roman Kopylov

Round 1
Fresh off a close five-rounder against rival Brendan Allen, Curtis (31-11, 1 NC; 5-3, 1 NC UFC) takes a step down in competition against Russian striker Kopylov (13-3, 5-3 UFC). While Kopylov has not been ranked, he is as dangerous as any, with knockouts accounting for four of his five triumphs in the Octagon. Keeping a lid on the middleweights will be referee Mark Smith, who clocks the fighters in as they opt for a glove touch. Curtis fights behind a jab, while Kopylov unleashes the first of likely many body kicks. Curtis crowds him with his hands, hoping to take some of those kicks away, but Kopylov chambers and fires off another. Kopylov kicks low and jabs high, and he circles when Curtis backs him up. Kopylov kicks low and is met with a body kick, and Curtis paws out three jabs in rapid succession. Kopylov scores a one-two, and jabs fly from both sides. Curtis kicks the body and gets his bell rung with a right hand, and the snapping jab that follows from Kopylov further stings him. Curtis shakes it off but absorbs another power jab, and he wipes his hands off to reset. Curtis prods out his own effective jab, doubling and tripling up on when he chooses. Curtis keeps his guard up after throwing, but Kopylov still manages to split it with a flurry. Kopylov pounds the front leg with a kick, and he fires off a one-two down the pipe. Curtis walks through it and hand-fights to get his way in. Kopylov flicks out numerous jabs, and Curtis gets tired of dealing with them and crashing forward with an uppercut. Curtis scores a right hand, and Kopylov grabs a leg and lets it go to score a body shot. Kopylov goes for another takedown, and bails on it before Curtis can properly defend. Kopylov kicks the body and dings “The Action Man” with a counter, but Curtis’ left hand lands flush as well. Curtis snaps the head back with an uppercut, reddening the Russian’s nose and forcing him to backpedal. Curtis walks him down behind a series of jabs, and he is ready to block the high kick he expects is coming. Curtis partially deflects a leg kick and puts out a left hand to counter another, and he mixes up jabs and kicks to keep Kopylov guessing. Kopylov strings together four punches that all bounce off the raised guard, and he takes a deep breath and loses his mouthpiece. Before Curtis can reach him, the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Curtis
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Curtis
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov

Round 2
The fighters touch gloves before getting right back to it, with volume striking on both sides. Curtis digs a few to the body when not jabbing up high, and he zips a right hand over the top after eating a left hook from the Russian. Curtis slams another right to the midsection, and he keeps walking Kopylov down and scoring cleanly. A clean left hand from Curtis shreds open a cut on Kopylov’s right eyebrow, and blood pours from it as soon as it opens. Curtis is in his groove, jabbing and setting up strikes after the jabs. The damage mounts fast from Curtis, who has also bloodied up Kopylov’s nose. Curtis does not take his foot off the gas, proving with jab after jab. Kopylov swings back with a looping right hand, but it ricochets down to Curtis’ cup. This is fortuitous for Kopylov, but Curtis takes just a few seconds to recover after Smith calls time. Curtis stays in Kopylov’s face, walking through body kicks and jabs so he can score his own strikes. Curtis dips and tags Kopylov with a right hand, and after an exchange, Kopylov reaches out with a right hand and pokes Curtis square in the eye. Curtis turns away and asks for a towel to wipe his eye out, trying to hurry so he does not let Kopylov have time to catch his breath. Smith warns the Russian for his second foul, and they touch gloves. Curtis puts his jab in Kopylov’s face time and again, ignoring a calf kick so he can pepper Kopylov with right hands. Kopylov winds up and cracks Curtis with a left hand that stuns “The Action Man,” and Curtis momentarily has to stop and recover. He is quick back to his all-volume approach, and he puts a knuckle in Kopylov’s eye to make him blink it out. Curtis flashes his jabs, and his guard is high and effective but Kopylov keeps throwing back valiantly. Curtis turns and rolls with most of the worst of them, and he puts three punches on the chin. Kopylov returns fire with a few jabs and a body kick, and he connects hard with a left hand that would have felled lesser fighters. The second stanza comes to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Curtis
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Curtis
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Curtis

Round 3
There is a double glove touch to commence the final frame, and unsurprisingly the middleweights want to hit one another in the face furiously and frequently. Kopylov keeps his range with a body kick, and he finds home with an uppercut as Curtis is chasing him. Curtis’ guard is up, but Kopylov is still connecting on him at least in part. Curtis doubles his jab up, and Kopylov puts more mustard behind his strikes. Curtis brings up an uppercut, and Kopylov steels himself and winds up with a left hand that staggers “The Action Man.” Kopylov blasts the body and works the lead leg, and Curtis shakes his head but may be fading. Curtis jabs his way into range, and he kicks Kopylov in the ribs and uppercuts him as well. Kopylov pins a one-two on the chin, and blood sprays from his mouth, nose and cut when he takes strikes. Kopylov is warned for outstretched fingers, and he gives Curtis the business with another uppercut to the body. When Curtis advances, Kopylov times a double to plant the veteran on his back. Curtis scrambles like a madman to get to his knees and wall-walk upright, and Kopylov wrenches him back down. Curtis recovers again, takes a partial head kick and lays into Kopylov. The Russian lets his fists fly, knocking Curtis’ head around, and somehow Curtis is not only still in the fight but firing back with a vengeance. Kopylov backs off, fatigue setting in hard, and he takes a deep breath and shoots for a takedown. Kopylov sells out for the single, and Curtis defends with the guillotine choke and pushes off with seconds to spare. Putting everything behind their final blows, they swing it out for one bit flurry.
Kopylov looses a head kick at the tail end of the match and walks away, stumbling Curtis and putting him down to the ground. Smith looks closely at Curtis and decides to wave the fight off with about a second to go
, and Curtis is incensed at the stoppage as Kopylov walked off and was not laying into him with finalizing blows. It is a bitter pill to swallow for “The Action Man,” who firmly believes Smith should not have intervened and that it should have gone to the scorecards, where he had a chance at winning. The complaints are not heard, as the referee is the sole arbiter of the bout and the fight is over. Kopylov has just earned the biggest win of his career, doing it over an iron-chinned competitor that had only been knocked out once.

The Official Result
Roman Kopylov def. Chris Curtis R3 4:59 via TKO (Head Kick)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 5, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Angelo picks Roman Kopylov, stating he is the better striker in a matchup that will likely stay on the feet. He acknowledges Chris Curtis is the more well-rounded fighter but notes Curtis rarely uses his wrestling. He expects Kopylov's kickboxing to outpoint Curtis, leading to a decision win. He mentions the odds have widened from -180 to -245.

"Roman kopilov is the better Striker so Roman kopilov has to be the pick it's that simple Striker versus Striker I'm going with the better Striker"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Big Brady expects a striker's delight with both guys likely not looking for takedowns. He notes Kopylov has more tools on the feet, including kicks, volume, and power. He points out Curtis is knockout-reliant and not a minute-winner, while Kopylov is durable with a big head. He predicts Kopylov wins by decision, as both are durable and have only one knockout loss combined.

"I like kopov here I think kopov probably wins this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Cody is all in on Curtis as a +210 underdog, citing Kopylov's cardio issues and Curtis's experience and body work. He expects Kopylov to fade in rounds 2-3, allowing Curtis to take over. He also dismisses the 'spygate' drama as gamesmanship.

"sign me up for action man he this might be our last big cash on action man you know but uh I'm here for it dude I'm absolutely here for it so plus 210 sign me up for Chris Curtis"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Connor picks Kopylov because Curtis is an emotional fighter who struggles when frustrated, and Kopylov is a momentum builder who can take over as the fight goes on. Curtis's counter-punching style and predictable footwork make him vulnerable to Kopylov's kicking game and pressure. While Curtis has a path to victory by pressuring and leading, Connor doubts he will execute it consistently. Kopylov's ability to build momentum and his improved game after early UFC struggles are key factors.

"So I got to pick Koppelov here, I just, yeah, I'm my inclination is to pick Koppelov as well."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Jan 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Daniel believes Kopylov has the tools to keep Curtis at distance with jabs and body kicks, but worries about Kopylov's cardio in later rounds. He notes Curtis is a durable southpaw pocket boxer with elite takedown defense. He thinks Kopylov can win a decision if he avoids pocket exchanges, but it could get sketchy late. He picks Kopylov but is concerned about the -250 price.

"I think Roman kopov is going to come out here and pick him apart but it could get sketchy late second round late third round"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Lucrative James confidently picks Roman Kopylov, stating he has all the tools to win. He highlights Kopylov's kicking, footwork, and potential grappling advantage, noting that Chris Curtis refuses to wrestle. He believes the blueprint to beat Curtis is the Jack Hermansson game plan, which Kopylov can replicate. He warns that Curtis is a better boxer and can crack, but outside of a big shot, he sees Kopylov winning clearly.

"I think Roman copy love has all the tools to win in this one if he doesn't get caught with a big shot in the middle of the Octagon tradeing I think that he's going to win the fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jan 10, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Kopylov is a superior striker and should be able to touch up Curtis, who is at a disadvantage fighting at middleweight. However, Kopylov's cardio can falter in deep water, which Curtis could exploit. Still, Kopylov has enough power to be the second person to finish Curtis by knockout in 43 professional fights.

by knockout
"I still have to lean with copil love as I think he's a superior Striker and has enough sting on his shots to be the second person to finish Chris Curtis by knockout and 43 professional fights"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Paul initially picked Kopylov but flipped to Curtis after Cody's argument. He agrees that Kopylov's wrestling won't be effective and that Curtis has cardio and volume advantages. He notes the line is too high on Kopylov.

"I'm flipping my pick we all go down together with the action man"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

The Guru confidently picks Kopylov, calling Curtis a 'crybaby' and criticizing his basic style. He believes Kopylov's striking versatility (head, body, leg kicks) will outclass Curtis's boxing-heavy approach. He notes Curtis's age (37), recent leg injury, and the spy controversy as signs of weakness. He expects a striking match where Kopylov sets patterns and breaks Curtis down.

"I'm going Roman copy love to win this one"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Zane also picks Kopylov, noting that Curtis is a smart fighter but often gets in his own head. Kopylov is weak going backwards, but Curtis is weak going forward and cutting off the cage. Zane envisions a neutral fight where both struggle to impose their game, but Kopylov's ability to build momentum and Curtis's tendency to be inactive give Kopylov the edge. Zane does not trust Curtis to fight smart consistently.

"But I am also going to take Koppelov because much as I love him and respect him. I do not trust Chris Curtis."
LOSS vs Brendan Allen
Decision (split) (47–48, 48–47, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · Apr 06, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brendan Allen 0 112 of 222 50% 128 of 242 6 of 13 46% 0 0 6:05
Chris Curtis 0 124 of 241 51% 141 of 261 0 of 0 --- 0 2 1:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brendan Allen 0 22 of 40 55% 24 of 42 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:17
Chris Curtis 0 13 of 41 31% 16 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
2 Brendan Allen 0 29 of 66 43% 29 of 66 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
Chris Curtis 0 46 of 80 57% 46 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Brendan Allen 0 23 of 42 54% 31 of 52 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:03
Chris Curtis 0 23 of 45 51% 23 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Brendan Allen 0 25 of 39 64% 28 of 44 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:24
Chris Curtis 0 21 of 44 47% 21 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:05
5 Brendan Allen 0 13 of 35 37% 16 of 38 2 of 7 28% 0 0 1:14
Chris Curtis 0 21 of 31 67% 35 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brendan Allen 112 of 222 50% 72 of 172 25 of 34 15 of 16 108 of 214 4 of 8 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 124 of 241 51% 96 of 205 25 of 33 3 of 3 122 of 237 2 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brendan Allen 22 of 40 55% 12 of 26 7 of 10 3 of 4 22 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 13 of 41 31% 8 of 34 5 of 7 0 of 0 13 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Brendan Allen 29 of 66 43% 20 of 55 6 of 8 3 of 3 28 of 64 1 of 2 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 46 of 80 57% 36 of 67 8 of 11 2 of 2 46 of 80 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Brendan Allen 23 of 42 54% 14 of 31 4 of 6 5 of 5 22 of 40 1 of 2 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 23 of 45 51% 18 of 38 5 of 7 0 of 0 22 of 43 1 of 2 0 of 0
4 Brendan Allen 25 of 39 64% 16 of 30 6 of 6 3 of 3 25 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 21 of 44 47% 17 of 39 3 of 4 1 of 1 21 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Brendan Allen 13 of 35 37% 10 of 30 2 of 4 1 of 1 11 of 31 2 of 4 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 21 of 31 67% 17 of 27 4 of 4 0 of 0 20 of 29 1 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 31, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Angelo picks Chris Curtis because he already knocked out Brendan Allen in under two minutes in their first fight. He believes Allen's recent win streak is impressive but that he can only win by getting the fight to the ground, which is very difficult against Curtis's takedown defense. Angelo also notes that Curtis on short notice may be better because he doesn't overthink. He mentions that underdogs have won 63% of main events in 2024 and expects that trend to continue.

underdogs have won 63% of main events in 2024
"I got to go Chris here... Chris Curtis is going to be the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Big Brady picks Chris Curtis as the underdog, noting that he doesn't understand why Allen is a 2-to-1 favorite. He highlights Curtis's elite takedown defense, durability, and cardio, and believes the fight will take place on the feet, where Curtis is more defensively sound and durable. He thinks Allen is hitable and has been knocked out before, and predicts Curtis will find Allen's chin over 25 minutes and win by third-round knockout.

win by third round knockout
"I'm taking Chris Curtis here I'm taking Chris Curtis to win this fight by third round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Cody agrees with Paul, noting that Allen's wins have come against one-dimensional grapplers, while Curtis is a sprawl-and-brawl boxer who works the body and legs. He points out that Curtis has looked midling lately but still has the style to beat Allen. Cody also highlights that Curtis knows Allen from sparring and took the first fight on short notice, and that the five-round fight favors Curtis's power and cardio. He expects Curtis to win by TKO again.

likely by TKO
"I think asman does it again... Chris Curtis likely by TKO"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Brendan Allen

Daniel Vreeland picks Brendan Allen but is hesitant due to Allen's ego and past knockout loss to Curtis. He notes Allen has improved since their first fight, with a six-fight win streak and better grappling as a black belt. However, he worries Allen might get distracted by Sean Strickland's trash talk and engage in pocket exchanges where Curtis excels. Vreeland believes Allen has more paths to victory if he fights smart, using kicks and distance to avoid brawling, and can win by volume or submission if he gets top control.

"I'm gonna go Brendan Allen but I'd be remissed if I left this out... if Brennan's gonna fight with his ego... I'd move in on a Chris Curtis live bet."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Curtis has the striking advantage and an iron chin. Allen's wrestling isn't good enough to get Curtis down consistently. In the pocket, Curtis will land the bigger shots and likely knock Allen out again, as he did in their first fight. The line is too wide for Allen.

Curtis by KO (around +250)
"I'm going to go with Curtis here you know rematches normally don't always go the same as the first fight but considering the stylistic Clash that we have here and some of the shortcomings that Allen has with the wrestling …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Paul thinks Chris Curtis is a bad matchup for Brendan Allen again. He notes Allen has improved but Curtis is a brick wall with solid boxing, body work, and five-round cardio. Paul believes Curtis's sprawl-and-brawl style will stifle Allen's takedowns and that Curtis will eventually land his power, likely by TKO. He also mentions Curtis took the fight on short notice last time and still won, and that the five-round distance favors Curtis's pressure.

likely by TKO
"I still think that this is a bad match up for Brennan Allen... Chris Curtis likely by TKO"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Brendan Allen

The host provides a detailed breakdown, noting Allen was doing well in the first fight before getting caught. He highlights Allen's improved offensive grappling (submitting Paul Craig, holding his own against Jacob Malkoun) and striking. He sees Curtis regressing, losing power, and taking the fight on short notice. He predicts Allen will win by submission in the first round via rear-naked choke, using body kicks to set up takedowns and chain wrestling to take Curtis' back.

submission win predicted, first round rear-naked choke
"I'm going to say that he gets this one done by submission and I'm going to say that he gets it done in the first round actually I'm going to say first round rear naked choke for Brendan Allen"
Decision (split) (30–27, 28–29, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 297: Strickland vs. du Plessis · Jan 20, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Curtis 0 140 of 258 54% 144 of 262 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marc-André Barriault 0 122 of 243 50% 124 of 245 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Curtis 0 23 of 48 47% 23 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marc-André Barriault 0 18 of 46 39% 18 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Chris Curtis 0 51 of 99 51% 51 of 99 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marc-André Barriault 0 45 of 85 52% 45 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Chris Curtis 0 66 of 111 59% 70 of 115 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marc-André Barriault 0 59 of 112 52% 61 of 114 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Curtis 140 of 258 54% 101 of 210 35 of 44 4 of 4 116 of 230 24 of 28 0 of 0
Marc-André Barriault 122 of 243 50% 77 of 189 33 of 42 12 of 12 105 of 218 17 of 25 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Curtis 23 of 48 47% 15 of 36 5 of 9 3 of 3 23 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marc-André Barriault 18 of 46 39% 8 of 35 4 of 5 6 of 6 18 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Chris Curtis 51 of 99 51% 40 of 85 10 of 13 1 of 1 47 of 95 4 of 4 0 of 0
Marc-André Barriault 45 of 85 52% 28 of 64 14 of 18 3 of 3 45 of 84 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Chris Curtis 66 of 111 59% 46 of 89 20 of 22 0 of 0 46 of 87 20 of 24 0 of 0
Marc-André Barriault 59 of 112 52% 41 of 90 15 of 19 3 of 3 42 of 88 17 of 24 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jan 14, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

Angelo leans Barriault, citing his forward pressure, toughness, and Canadian home advantage. He worries that Curtis's counter-striking style may not impress judges if he's backing up. He notes Barriault must avoid Curtis's big hook. He has placed a quarter unit on Barriault at plus 150 and may add more if the line moves.

Quarter unit bet at +150; may add more if line moves to +200
"I am G to pick Mark Andre here I'm going to lean Mark Andre here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

Big Brady picks Barriault as a dog, saying the odds make no sense. He notes Curtis is a slow starter who gets outlanded in most fights, while Barriault has high volume and is fighting in Canada. He expects a close fight that goes to decision, with Canadian judges potentially favoring Barriault. He doubts either fighter gets a knockout.

split decision
"give me the dog here Mark andario I do not get this line whatsoever"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Cody picks Curtis due to his higher level of competition and power advantage. He notes Curtis is a slow starter but has nasty power and volume. He expects a third-round TKO or decision win for Curtis.

Curtis by TKO in round 3
"I think it's going to be a third round stoppage for by TKO for Action Man or a decision win."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jan 18, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

Vreeland picks Barriault as a home dog, noting his grappling and durability. He sees the fight as even but likes the plus money on Barriault. Vreeland acknowledges Barriault's cardio and durability as strengths, but doesn't elaborate on a specific path to victory beyond the value.

plus 165 dog money on home soil
"I'll go with bario I think it's worth a stab at at the dog money on his on his home soil um good Grappler doesn't doesn't rely on grappling very much better Striker but less power than than Curtis so …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jan 16, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

Daniel Vreeland picks Marc-André Barriault as a live dog. He notes that Curtis often needs a knockout to win, otherwise he loses decisions. Barriault is durable, has nasty uppercuts and elbows in the clinch, and can crack. Vreeland expects Barriault to win by decision if he survives Curtis's early power.

by decision
"I'm actually gonna pick him to win this fight probably by decision"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Fox picks Curtis, believing he is the right style to beat Barriault. He notes that Barriault's best weapons are cardio and durability, but Curtis doesn't overextend and stays within himself. Fox points to Curtis's defensive grappling against opponents like Brendan Allen and Nassourdine Imavov as evidence he can handle Barriault's grappling. He thinks Barriault gets hit a lot and isn't overly sharp on the feet, so Curtis should win if he doesn't get drawn into prolonged exchanges.

"I think Chris Curtis is the right kind of guy to beat Mark Andre bario uh if if you ask me what Bario's best weapon is I think it's pretty obvious it's disc cardio um it's cardio and his durability …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Feb 6, 2025 (fight day)

This fight is not discussed in the transcript. The host does not mention Curtis vs Barriault.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

I'm going with Barriault as an underdog. He is active, high pressure, high pace, and has great cardio. He can stick at distance, utilize kicks, and mix in the clinch. Curtis is reliant on a knockout to win, but Barriault's style should be tough for Curtis to overcome. I think Barriault puts together a better overall body of work and wins by decision.

decision victory
"as an underdog got to go with the guy bario here to go out there and put together their better overall body of workc to get his hand raised by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Paul picks Curtis by KO, citing his power advantage and Barriault's chinny history. He thinks Curtis will land a big shot after a slow start, possibly in round 2 or 3. He notes Barriault's cardio but believes Curtis's power is the difference.

Curtis by KO at +225
"I think Curtis by KO is how I see this fight playing out."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

The MMA Guru picks Chris Curtis, citing his body work and pressure. He notes Barriault's tendency to get overwhelmed by volume and gassing, and believes Curtis's body shots will be key. He mentions Curtis's power advantage and the motivation from training with Sean Strickland. He predicts a TKO via body shots in round two or three.

TKO via body shots, round 2 or 3
"I'm going with Chris Curtis here over Mark Andre barot"
No Contest (accidental clash of heads) R2 3:04 · UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana · Jun 10, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nassourdine Imavov 0 57 of 84 67% 59 of 86 3 of 4 75% 1 0 2:22
Chris Curtis 0 26 of 61 42% 34 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nassourdine Imavov 0 29 of 36 80% 31 of 38 3 of 4 75% 1 0 2:07
Chris Curtis 0 15 of 32 46% 20 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Nassourdine Imavov 0 28 of 48 58% 28 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Chris Curtis 0 11 of 29 37% 14 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nassourdine Imavov 57 of 84 67% 27 of 48 8 of 12 22 of 24 54 of 80 3 of 4 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 26 of 61 42% 4 of 28 8 of 18 14 of 15 26 of 60 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nassourdine Imavov 29 of 36 80% 11 of 16 4 of 6 14 of 14 28 of 35 1 of 1 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 15 of 32 46% 1 of 12 5 of 10 9 of 10 15 of 31 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Nassourdine Imavov 28 of 48 58% 16 of 32 4 of 6 8 of 10 26 of 45 2 of 3 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 11 of 29 37% 3 of 16 3 of 8 5 of 5 11 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 4, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Angelo picks Nassourdine Imavov, but with hesitation. He notes that Chris Curtis is a great counter-striker but often backs up, which could lead to a decision loss. He believes Imavov's size and forward pressure will earn him a close decision. However, he admits he has never picked a Chris Curtis fight correctly, so he is fading his own pick.

"I picked nasridine which means Chris is going to win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jun 3, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Big Brady leans towards Imavov because Chris Curtis is a slow starter who often loses the first round. He notes that both fighters are durable with only one KO loss combined, so the fight likely goes to decision. Imavov's early activity should win him the first round, and the later rounds will be close. He picks Imavov by decision.

fight goes to decision
"I do lean towards the Nazarene imove offside is going to be this reason... Chris Curtis is a very slow starter... I don't see him knocking out nazarethov... this fight is Going the Distance more often than not"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Cody picks Imavov, arguing that Curtis has taken too much damage recently (319 significant strikes in 4 fights) and is fighting too frequently. He notes that Curtis' style has reverted to a Philly shell, and he struggles against rangy fighters who stay on the outside. Imavov has speed, youth, and a long jab, and can fight at range. He expects Imavov to stay on the outside and pick Curtis apart.

"I think he just stays at the outside and paints a picture"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Jun 9, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Chris Curtis

Connor agrees with Zane and picks Chris Curtis, though he is hesitant. He likes the way Curtis fights, describing him as a systematic pocket boxer with great hands and defense. Connor worries that Imavov could frustrate Curtis in short bursts, but notes that it's a three-round fight, so two rounds of Imavov's bursts might be enough. He ultimately sides with Curtis because he is a better fighter and more capable of closing doors when momentum shifts.

Curtis over 2.0 +105, currently +131; Imavov opened -116, now -146
"I'll pick I'll I'll stick with you and pick Chris Curtis here. I don't like it, but yeah, you see what I'm saying."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Daniel Levi picks Chris Curtis, agreeing with the co-host that Imavov does not have the volume or gas tank to implement the blueprint to beat Curtis. He notes that Curtis has excellent boxing, takedown defense, and body shots that can sap Imavov's cardio. He points out that Imavov has historically low output and has faded in fights, while Curtis is a dangerous counter-puncher. He believes the line offers value on Curtis.

"I really like Chris Curtis here"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Jun 10, 2023 (fight day)
Nassourdine Imavov

James picks Imavov to win by 29-28 decision. He thinks Imavov's range control and lead leg work will be key, and that Curtis struggles with fighters who don't stand in the pocket. He expects Imavov to win rounds one and two, with Curtis possibly taking round three. James notes Curtis is a good counter-striker but may take time to find his timing. He suggests live betting Curtis after round one if he loses it, as Curtis will likely be a bigger underdog then.

Chris Curtis KO round 3 at +2100 (small sprinkle)
"I'm calling it about a 29-28 win for a Marvel van"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jun 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Imavov's distance striking and kicking game should keep Curtis at range, frustrating his pocket boxing. Curtis has a significant size disadvantage (5-inch height difference) and may struggle to close distance. However, Curtis has KO power and could turn the fight if he drags Imavov into exchanges. Low confidence due to Curtis's finishing ability.

"I feel as though he is just more equipped to win this stylistic matchup not to mention the size disadvantage that Chris Curtis will be at"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Paul leans toward Imavov, agreeing with Cody's assessment. He notes that Curtis struggles to get into the pocket against fighters who stay at range, as seen in the Hermansson fight. The big cage in Vancouver will give Imavov room to move. However, Paul admits he cannot bet against Curtis with his own money because he likes him as a fighter.

"I'm with you I'm picking imov but I couldn't I couldn't I couldn't better but against our guy uh Chris Curtis with my actual money"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

The MMA Guru picks Chris Curtis as an underdog, noting Imavov slows down in fights and has cardio issues. He believes Curtis has great takedown defense and can stop Imavov's takedowns, making Imavov worry. He also mentions Curtis trains with Sean Strickland, who recently beat Imavov. He predicts Curtis wins by decision, possibly with a third-round TKO.

underdog pick, noted odds
"I am going to be picking Chris Curtis as an underdog here over nasadena mavov"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Jun 9, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Chris Curtis

Zane picks Chris Curtis despite acknowledging that Imavov has the stylistic advantages to frustrate Curtis like Jack Hermansson did. He notes that Imavov is tall, rangy, and faster than Hermansson, but lacks consistency and tends to gas. Zane trusts Curtis's ability to hang around and snatch momentum if Imavov loses a step, and he prefers Curtis's boxing and pocket fighting. He admits it's a bad style matchup but thinks Curtis is the better fighter.

Curtis over 2.0 +105, currently +131; Imavov opened -116, now -146
"I'm gonna pick Curtis here. I think the big the other big thing here is the buckley fight... Curtis is much more capable of taking small swings of momentum and using them to close doors than buckley is."
LOSS vs Kelvin Gastelum
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · Apr 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kelvin Gastelum 0 70 of 201 34% 80 of 216 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Chris Curtis 0 83 of 188 44% 88 of 195 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kelvin Gastelum 0 13 of 48 27% 13 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Curtis 0 30 of 64 46% 30 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Kelvin Gastelum 0 20 of 65 30% 26 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Curtis 0 23 of 56 41% 27 of 62 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:55
3 Kelvin Gastelum 0 37 of 88 42% 41 of 94 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Chris Curtis 0 30 of 68 44% 31 of 69 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kelvin Gastelum 70 of 201 34% 44 of 164 21 of 30 5 of 7 63 of 193 7 of 8 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 83 of 188 44% 63 of 161 5 of 8 15 of 19 76 of 172 3 of 6 4 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kelvin Gastelum 13 of 48 27% 8 of 40 1 of 2 4 of 6 13 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 30 of 64 46% 20 of 51 0 of 0 10 of 13 30 of 64 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Kelvin Gastelum 20 of 65 30% 11 of 51 9 of 14 0 of 0 18 of 62 2 of 3 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 23 of 56 41% 20 of 51 1 of 2 2 of 3 19 of 44 0 of 2 4 of 10
3 Kelvin Gastelum 37 of 88 42% 25 of 73 11 of 14 1 of 1 32 of 83 5 of 5 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 30 of 68 44% 23 of 59 4 of 6 3 of 3 27 of 64 3 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Angelo picks Chris Curtis and has a moneyline bet on him. He notes that Kelvin Gastelum is a waste of talent with poor work ethic, while Chris Curtis is a clean boxer with solid takedown defense and power. He believes Curtis will win the striking exchanges and defend takedowns. He is confident because Gastelum hasn't shown his best day in years.

moneyline bet
"Chris Curtis is going to be the pick I do have a money line bet on him"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Big Brady picks Chris Curtis as the underdog, expecting a close decision. He notes both fighters are durable and have power, but he trusts Curtis's momentum over Gastelum's recent skid. He predicts a split decision and mentions the line has flipped to Gastelum as favorite, making Curtis the dog. He is not confident due to potential judging issues.

"I like I like Curtis to win ... I'll take Chris Curtis to win by like a split uh decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Cody agrees with Paul on Curtis. He highlights Curtis' takedown defense and notes that Gastelum's wrestling hasn't been effective recently. Cody likes Curtis by decision at +240 as his favorite bet on the card. He points out that Curtis doesn't have much jiu-jitsu, so a submission is unlikely, but a decision is probable. Cody also mentions Gastelum's staph infection and dental issues as potential factors.

Curtis by decision at +240; under 0.5 takedowns for Gastelum on PrizePicks
"Chris Curtis by decision I'll tell you that much"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Chris Curtis. He emphasizes that Curtis is a better counter puncher and that Gastelum is too hittable. Connor also mentions that Curtis has a better chance of landing clean shots that judges will notice, even if they don't hurt Gastelum.

"Yeah, same."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lock picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Jacob is locked and loaded on Chris Curtis, calling him a lock. He emphasizes that everyone who engages with Curtis gets knocked out because of his ability to read rhythm and find counter shots. He notes that Gastelum leaves himself open with low hands and gets dropped often. He believes Curtis can knock him out or win a decision.

"I'm locked and loaded on Chris Curtis"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Gastelum has been on a tough skid but is only 31 and now training with Fight Ready, known for great game plans. He has underrated wrestling and Jiu-Jitsu, and his durability should hold up against Curtis's power. Curtis is experienced but was out-gamed by Jack Hermansson's range. I think Gastelum's diversity and Fight Ready's plan lead to a decision win, though ring rust is a concern.

"I think this is probably the most favorable matchup that Calvin gaslim has had during this entire slump maybe with the exception of the Ian heinish fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Paul picks Curtis, citing his superior volume, cardio, and reach advantage. He notes Curtis has excellent takedown defense and has fought bigger middleweights. Paul criticizes Gastelum's recent low output and believes Curtis will outwork him. He expects a 15-minute standup fight and likes Curtis by decision at plus money. Paul also mentions Curtis' experience sparring with Sean Strickland and his ability to find openings.

Curtis by decision at +240; over 2.5 rounds at -220; under 0.5 takedowns for Gastelum on PrizePicks
"sign me up for Action Man"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2023 (fight day)
Chris Curtis

The MMA Guru picks Chris Curtis to finish Kelvin Gastelum in round three via body shot. He expects a war where both land big shots, but Curtis will dig to the body consistently, wearing Gastelum down. He notes Gastelum's poor shape and good chin, predicting that body shots will be the key. He describes a sequence where Gastelum slows down and Curtis finishes him against the cage.

round three finish, body shot
"I'm gonna say Curtis finishes him in round three"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Zane picks Chris Curtis because he believes Curtis will land the better, more memorable shots. He notes that Curtis is an accurate and powerful counter puncher, while Gastelum remains hittable with his chin up. Zane also points out that Curtis has been getting decisions lately and that Gastelum's prime started early and he has taken a lot of damage.

"I'm going to pick Chris Curtis because I think he's going to land the better shots."
KO (punches) R2 2:49 · UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · Dec 10, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Curtis 1 36 of 87 41% 36 of 87 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Joaquin Buckley 0 50 of 163 30% 50 of 163 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Curtis 0 19 of 49 38% 19 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joaquin Buckley 0 29 of 91 31% 29 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Chris Curtis 1 17 of 38 44% 17 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Joaquin Buckley 0 21 of 72 29% 21 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Curtis 36 of 87 41% 25 of 72 3 of 5 8 of 10 29 of 78 1 of 1 6 of 8
Joaquin Buckley 50 of 163 30% 27 of 134 15 of 20 8 of 9 48 of 159 2 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Curtis 19 of 49 38% 11 of 38 2 of 3 6 of 8 19 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joaquin Buckley 29 of 91 31% 12 of 71 11 of 13 6 of 7 27 of 87 2 of 4 0 of 0
2 Chris Curtis 17 of 38 44% 14 of 34 1 of 2 2 of 2 10 of 29 1 of 1 6 of 8
Joaquin Buckley 21 of 72 29% 15 of 63 4 of 7 2 of 2 21 of 72 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Joaquin Buckley vs. Chris Curtis
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Buckley (-155), Curtis (+135)

Round 1
The UFC 282 ESPN prelims chose violence to open them up, as middleweight strikers Curtis (29-9, 3-1 UFC) and Buckley (15-5, 5-3 UFC) are sure to throw leather with high intensity for as long as they can. With 27 knockouts combined, referee Jason Herzog and the smelling salts may be needed by the bout’s end if fight fans are lucky. The sluggers that have developed some bad blood before their match do not touch gloves, as they would rather introduce their fists to one another’s faces first. The fighters are tense and not willing to release much of note early, tossing single strikes at one another like head kicks. Curtis splits the guard with a jab, and he sits down on a low kick. Buckley answers with one of his own, and this back-and-forth of similar strikes continues. Buckley jabs to the head and body, and he hops back from a one-two that zips straight at him. Buckley crowds his man with a few short punches, and when Curtis escapes, Buckley whips a low kick that slaps hard on the lead leg. Curtis gets one-two through, and Buckley surges forward in hopes of getting that back after getting stung. Curtis stays light on his feet and escapes, while keeping a high guard to defend against the heavier strikes hurled at him. Buckley mixes his strikes up with a body shot, and he whiffs with the lion’s share of a combination that ends with a glancing head kick. Curtis intercepts an advancing Buckley with an inside thigh kick that skips into the groin, and the fans shower them with boos until realizing it was a foul. Curtis apologizes and Buckley recovers, and they return to throwing single strikes when resuming. Buckley just misses with a head kick, and Curtis starts talking to him. Curtis fires off a jab and a right hand, and Buckley tries to reply with five heavy punches that largely collide with the guard. The jabs from Curtis lead to Buckley pawing at his eye, and Buckley tries to chop down the lead leg. Buckley remains busy but walks into a body kick, and he gets cracked as he strikes. Curtis smiles at him and blocks a pair of hefty uppercuts, and he shells up when Buckley fires off a combo that concludes with a head kick. When Buckley’s punches up top miss, he goes after the body with a salvo. The round ends right as Buckley connects with a handful of body shots.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Buckley

Round 2
Curtis is quick to claim the center of the cage, and Buckley leads off with kicks to the body on the outside. Curtis walks Buckley down and jabs several times, eliciting reactions out of his opponent. Curtis walks through the heavy blows to snap the head back with straight punches, and Buckley is throwing everything he has into power shots. Curtis’ guard and head movement largely keep him out of harm, but Buckley crashes the pocket and catches him at the end of a left hook. Curtis looks to play counter, and Buckley beats him to the punch with a combo. Curtis snaps out a left hand, and Buckley strings three punches together before absorbing a low kick. They land alternating hooks at the same time, and Curtis rolls when retreating as Buckley pours on the pressure. Two nasty hooks to the body slam into Curtis’ side, but he catches Buckley leaping at him with a left. Buckley loads up and connects, forcing Curtis into action with a responsive head kick. Buckley chains a long series of punches together off the guard, and he is feeling himself.
Curtis blocks and catches a head kick and unloads a brutal left hand that knocks Buckley clean off his feet, and Buckley might be out when he hits the ground. “New Mansa” snaps back into action, and he throws his legs up and tries to swing off his back, but Curtis is measured and he drills his foe with ground-and-pound. Buckley goes out again, and the punches knock him back conscious once more as Herzog is paying close attention but giving Buckley a great deal of leeway. Knowing the finish is right there for the taking, Curtis hammers the nail with hammerfists, putting Buckley out once and for all.
Although Buckley comes back to seconds later and appears upset with Herzog about the stoppage, he was knocked out two or three times before the finish materialized. Curtis has bounced back from his first UFC defeat in big way, and he is all smiles after the back-and-forth battle.

The Official Result
Chris Curtis def. Joaquin Buckley R2 2:49 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Dec 4, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

Angelo picks Buckley but is hesitant, noting that Curtis has only fought grapplers in the UFC and knocked them out, while Buckley has fought strikers with mixed success. He acknowledges Curtis's short-notice loss to Hermansson may be excusable. He plans to wait for prop bets rather than betting the moneyline, comparing the matchup to Wonderboy vs Holland where a striker's true level was revealed.

No moneyline bet; waiting for prop bets.
"the pick I think is going to be Buckley at this point and this this is I may change his pick so make sure you watch the updated video"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Big Brady picks Chris Curtis as a dog, citing Curtis's superior durability and volume. He notes Buckley has been knocked out three times and knocked down often, while Curtis has only been knocked out once in 38 fights. He expects Curtis to find Buckley's chin and knock him out in the second round.

Curtis wins by second round knockout; Curtis is a dog at +135
"I like Chris Curtis to get this done um I like Chris Curtis to eventually find the chin of Joaquin Buckley and and knock this guy out and give him his fourth knockout loss"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Cody picks Chris Curtis, citing his takedown defense (100% in UFC), striking output, and experience. He notes Buckley's low volume and cardio issues, and that Curtis will double his output. He thinks Curtis' jab and right hand will be key, and that Buckley's power is a threat but Curtis can weather it. He expects a decision win for Curtis.

"I'm all action man Homer and so let's bring it back to the positive of why Chris Curtis wins this fight... takedown defense striking output"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

Daniel Levi picks Joaquin Buckley, citing his more varied path to victory. He criticizes Chris Curtis's poor attitude and limited offense outside the pocket. Levi believes Buckley should use movement, kicks, and feints to stay on the outside, and can mix in takedowns to exploit Curtis's historically weak bottom game. He thinks Curtis's only chance is a pocket boxing match, while Buckley can win by striking at range, takedowns, or even a knockout. Levi sees Buckley as the more explosive and versatile fighter.

"Buckley's got more ways to win... I think as long as Buckley uses a lot of movement uses a lot of kicks and doesn't stay stationary"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Dec 9, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

Lock picks Buckley to get his hand raised, but he wants nothing to do with the fight from a betting or PredictionStrike perspective. He thinks neither guy has a huge ceiling in the UFC, and Buckley's skill set is limited. He notes that Buckley is closer to Curtis in size compared to Curtis's previous fight against Jack Hermansson, but still sees Buckley as a guy who will trade wins and losses without breaking into the top 10.

"I do think Buckley gets his hand raised here but I think he's one of those guys that's going to go out there and continuously trade wins and losses"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Paul picks Chris Curtis, noting the plus money and that Curtis should be able to pick Buckley apart at range. He thinks Buckley's power is dangerous but Curtis has the boxing and experience. He is confident in Curtis as a dog.

"I'll be picking him but I'm more interested in what you have to say about this one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

The MMA Guru picks Joaquin Buckley over Chris Curtis, praising Buckley's underrated striking and athleticism. He notes that Curtis is 35 and relies on counter-wrestling and big shots, but Buckley is elusive and dangerous with head kicks and body kicks. He believes Buckley will out-scrap Curtis over three rounds, possibly winning 30-27 or by TKO, and that Curtis doesn't have the KO power to stop Buckley.

"I'm going with Joaquin Buckley here I think he gets a lot of stick because he was the highlight guy and he never really lived up to that potential but dude he gave nasadena mavov everything he could handle"
Expert Picks (10)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 4, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Angelo picks Nassourdine Imavov, but with hesitation. He notes that Chris Curtis is a great counter-striker but often backs up, which could lead to a decision loss. He believes Imavov's size and forward pressure will earn him a close decision. However, he admits he has never picked a Chris Curtis fight correctly, so he is fading his own pick.

"I picked nasridine which means Chris is going to win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jun 3, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Big Brady leans towards Imavov because Chris Curtis is a slow starter who often loses the first round. He notes that both fighters are durable with only one KO loss combined, so the fight likely goes to decision. Imavov's early activity should win him the first round, and the later rounds will be close. He picks Imavov by decision.

fight goes to decision
"I do lean towards the Nazarene imove offside is going to be this reason... Chris Curtis is a very slow starter... I don't see him knocking out nazarethov... this fight is Going the Distance more often than not"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Cody picks Imavov, arguing that Curtis has taken too much damage recently (319 significant strikes in 4 fights) and is fighting too frequently. He notes that Curtis' style has reverted to a Philly shell, and he struggles against rangy fighters who stay on the outside. Imavov has speed, youth, and a long jab, and can fight at range. He expects Imavov to stay on the outside and pick Curtis apart.

"I think he just stays at the outside and paints a picture"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Jun 9, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Chris Curtis

Connor agrees with Zane and picks Chris Curtis, though he is hesitant. He likes the way Curtis fights, describing him as a systematic pocket boxer with great hands and defense. Connor worries that Imavov could frustrate Curtis in short bursts, but notes that it's a three-round fight, so two rounds of Imavov's bursts might be enough. He ultimately sides with Curtis because he is a better fighter and more capable of closing doors when momentum shifts.

Curtis over 2.0 +105, currently +131; Imavov opened -116, now -146
"I'll pick I'll I'll stick with you and pick Chris Curtis here. I don't like it, but yeah, you see what I'm saying."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Daniel Levi picks Chris Curtis, agreeing with the co-host that Imavov does not have the volume or gas tank to implement the blueprint to beat Curtis. He notes that Curtis has excellent boxing, takedown defense, and body shots that can sap Imavov's cardio. He points out that Imavov has historically low output and has faded in fights, while Curtis is a dangerous counter-puncher. He believes the line offers value on Curtis.

"I really like Chris Curtis here"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Jun 10, 2023 (fight day)
Nassourdine Imavov

James picks Imavov to win by 29-28 decision. He thinks Imavov's range control and lead leg work will be key, and that Curtis struggles with fighters who don't stand in the pocket. He expects Imavov to win rounds one and two, with Curtis possibly taking round three. James notes Curtis is a good counter-striker but may take time to find his timing. He suggests live betting Curtis after round one if he loses it, as Curtis will likely be a bigger underdog then.

Chris Curtis KO round 3 at +2100 (small sprinkle)
"I'm calling it about a 29-28 win for a Marvel van"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jun 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Imavov's distance striking and kicking game should keep Curtis at range, frustrating his pocket boxing. Curtis has a significant size disadvantage (5-inch height difference) and may struggle to close distance. However, Curtis has KO power and could turn the fight if he drags Imavov into exchanges. Low confidence due to Curtis's finishing ability.

"I feel as though he is just more equipped to win this stylistic matchup not to mention the size disadvantage that Chris Curtis will be at"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Paul leans toward Imavov, agreeing with Cody's assessment. He notes that Curtis struggles to get into the pocket against fighters who stay at range, as seen in the Hermansson fight. The big cage in Vancouver will give Imavov room to move. However, Paul admits he cannot bet against Curtis with his own money because he likes him as a fighter.

"I'm with you I'm picking imov but I couldn't I couldn't I couldn't better but against our guy uh Chris Curtis with my actual money"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

The MMA Guru picks Chris Curtis as an underdog, noting Imavov slows down in fights and has cardio issues. He believes Curtis has great takedown defense and can stop Imavov's takedowns, making Imavov worry. He also mentions Curtis trains with Sean Strickland, who recently beat Imavov. He predicts Curtis wins by decision, possibly with a third-round TKO.

underdog pick, noted odds
"I am going to be picking Chris Curtis as an underdog here over nasadena mavov"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Jun 9, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Chris Curtis

Zane picks Chris Curtis despite acknowledging that Imavov has the stylistic advantages to frustrate Curtis like Jack Hermansson did. He notes that Imavov is tall, rangy, and faster than Hermansson, but lacks consistency and tends to gas. Zane trusts Curtis's ability to hang around and snatch momentum if Imavov loses a step, and he prefers Curtis's boxing and pocket fighting. He admits it's a bad style matchup but thinks Curtis is the better fighter.

Curtis over 2.0 +105, currently +131; Imavov opened -116, now -146
"I'm gonna pick Curtis here. I think the big the other big thing here is the buckley fight... Curtis is much more capable of taking small swings of momentum and using them to close doors than buckley is."