Kyle Nelson

Angelo picks Terrance McKinney despite acknowledging his cardio and chin issues. He believes McKinney is the better striker, wrestler, and more powerful, and hopes he puts on a show at home. He admits he went against his own rule of not betting on McKinney and placed a half-unit bet at -141.

Big Brady picks Terrance McKinney to win by first-round knockout. He expects a car crash of a fight, noting both fighters lack durability and have been finished often. He believes McKinney's early pressure and power will be too much for Kyle Nelson, who has been finished in four losses. He thinks McKinney will knock him out in the first few minutes.

Cody picks Nelson, believing McKinney's early explosiveness will fade and Nelson's durability and cardio will take over. He also mentions inside information from Nelson's training partner.

Connor picks Nelson, noting that McKinney is only dangerous in the first round and concedes when he can't get an immediate finish. He points out that McKinney has only won one fight outside the first three minutes in his entire career. Nelson is susceptible early but if he survives, McKinney gives up. Connor says you can't pick a competent fighter to lose to McKinney.

Daniel acknowledges McKinney's first-round finishing ability but is wary of his tendency to fade if he doesn't get the early KO. He picks McKinney but suggests live betting Nelson if the fight goes past two minutes.

The host sees this as a coin flip: McKinney is explosive and dangerous early but has terrible cardio and has never been to a decision; Nelson is slow and hittable but has power and can survive the first round. The implied probabilities (65-40) offer no margin on either side, so the host passes entirely.

The host expects McKinney's explosive power and early aggression to overwhelm Nelson, leading to a first-round knockout. He notes McKinney's tendency to finish early and that all his UFC fights have ended under 1.5 rounds. He is less confident in betting McKinney straight due to his style's volatility but likes the under 1.5 rounds prop.

Paul agrees, noting McKinney's history of gassing and Nelson's ability to survive early storms. He expects Nelson to win after the first round.

The MMA Guru picks Kyle Nelson using reverse psychology, as he often picks McKinney to win by first-round TKO but McKinney fumbles. He believes McKinney will wobble Nelson early but then fade, allowing Nelson to take over in the second and third rounds with elbows and pressure. He notes McKinney's inconsistency.

Angelo leans Matt Frevola as the better fighter with good wrestling and power, but acknowledges Kyle Nelson's durability and power. He expects a finish either way and calls it a 50/50 fight. He picks Frevola but with low confidence.

Big Brady doubts Frevola will wrestle and expects a stand-up brawl. He questions both fighters' chins but thinks Nelson has the better chin and power. He predicts Nelson lands a big shot in the first round, picking a first-round KO.

Cody picks Frevola, citing his wrestling advantage and power. He notes Nelson is moving up from 145 and has struggled against wrestlers. Frevola can take Nelson down and ground-and-pound. Cody believes Frevola's size and grappling will be decisive, but admits low conviction.

Connor picks Nelson, agreeing that Frevola has shown bad signs recently. He notes that Frevola has not looked like he wants to fight in his last few outings. Connor believes Nelson's composure and range fighting will be effective, but acknowledges that Nelson has a history of melting down. He thinks Nelson should be a slight favorite.

James favors Frevola due to his wrestling, cardio, and natural lightweight frame, while Nelson is moving up from featherweight. He acknowledges Frevola's chin issues but believes his wrestling and pace will overwhelm Nelson. James predicts a decision win for Frevola.

The host thinks this fight could be a car crash, but if Frevola plays it safely and avoids Nelson's power, he can easily take the fight to the ground and rinse and repeat that style. He expects Frevola to win by submission or on the scorecards.

Paul picks Nelson, but with zero conviction. He notes both fighters love to brawl and have power. Paul thinks it's a pick'em and expects a finish. He leans Nelson but says it's a coin flip.

The MMA Guru picks Matt Frevola over Kyle Nelson. He acknowledges both are coming off losses but believes Frevola's competition has been tougher and his good moments are better. He thinks Frevola can mix in grappling and takedowns, and that Nelson is too rigid and simple. He predicts a decision win, 30-27.

Angelo picks Steve Garcia because he hits very hard, has good wrestling, and is on a four-fight knockout streak. However, he is hesitant because Kyle Nelson has been looking good lately and has power and toughness. He plans to have very little exposure on this fight if he bets.

Big Brady picks Steve Garcia to win by knockout in round one. He highlights Garcia's four-fight knockout streak and his dog mentality, but acknowledges Garcia gets dropped often. Brady thinks Garcia will get dropped but get back up and finish Nelson. He favors Garcia more as the fight goes into later rounds.

Cody picks Nelson on the moneyline, citing Garcia's poor chin and tendency to get dropped, while Nelson has improved cardio, wrestling, and durability. He notes Garcia's wins are often against tired or compromised opponents, and that Nelson's pressure and pace can overwhelm Garcia. He sees value at plus money and is confident Nelson can win.

Daniel acknowledges Kyle Nelson's improved style but thinks Garcia's kill-or-be-killed pressure will force Nelson to fight, potentially bringing back his old issues. He admits he hasn't been good at predicting the new Kyle Nelson, but he picks Garcia to extend his knockout streak. He notes Garcia is a killer who either knocks you out or gets knocked out.

Garcia is on a four-fight KO streak and has awkward angles that could trouble Nelson. Nelson is also on a roll but Garcia's power is a threat. The under 1.5 rounds is the preferred bet, as Garcia tends to finish early. Garcia by first-round KO is the pick.

Paul likes the over 1.5 rounds at +140, believing Nelson's improved cardio and fight IQ will avoid an early knockout. He thinks Nelson can make it competitive and potentially win a decision. He is not confident in betting Garcia at nearly -200, so he leans Nelson but prefers the over prop.

Angelo leans Bill Algeo but is not very confident. He highlights Algeo's karate-style striking, high volume, and BJJ black belt, but notes he gets hit a lot. He thinks Kyle Nelson's forward pressure could be tricky. He suggests the over 2.5 rounds as a safer bet, expecting a decision.

Big Brady picks Bill Algeo to win by third-round finish. He notes Algeo is a fast-paced striker who lands over six significant strikes per minute, and expects him to push a pace that Kyle Nelson cannot keep up with. Brady believes Nelson's recent fights have been slow and boring, but Algeo will force him to work and break him late.

Cody likes Algeo's volume, cardio, and durability, believing he can outwork Nelson. He notes Nelson's improved cardio but thinks Algeo's pace and output will be too much, likely winning by decision or late finish.

Daniel Vreeland picks Bill Algeo, citing his high volume and pace. He thinks Algeo's pressure and output will overwhelm Nelson, who has a history of gassing. He notes Nelson's recent style change but believes Algeo won't give him space to rest. He predicts Algeo by decision or late finish.

Algeo is on a 4-1 run with unorthodox movement and effective leg kicks. He picks opponents apart from distance and has solid BJJ. Nelson has improved but still relies on crashing the pocket; Algeo's lateral movement and counters should cause Nelson to chase and slow down. Algeo by decision is likely, with potential for a late finish.

Paul compares this fight to Algeo's win over Corano, expecting Algeo to overwhelm Nelson with volume. He mentions a potential round 3 prop for Algeo but sees decision as most likely.

Angelo picks Fernando Padilla, noting his accuracy and clinch work will be the difference. He mentions both fighters like gritty pocket fights, which favors Padilla. He wishes the value were better at -241 and plans to monitor the line movement before betting.

Big Brady is confident in Padilla, criticizing Nelson's recent inactivity and poor performances. He believes Padilla will force the action and that Nelson will revert to his old ways of gassing and getting finished. He notes Padilla's power, cardio, and grappling skills, and predicts a third-round knockout.

Cody considers Nelson a live dog due to his durability, wrestling, and experience. He notes Nelson's low volume is a concern but thinks he can make fights close and has power. However, he is not confident enough to bet and may pass, preferring Giagos as a better dog play.

Daniel Levi picks Fernando Padilla but with low confidence, as he is still unsure what Padilla truly is at the UFC level. He notes Padilla's length and toughness but questions his durability over three rounds. Levi believes Kyle Nelson is a known quantity and that Padilla has the power and reach to win, but he did not bet the fight because the jury is still out on Padilla's long-term potential.

Padilla is a finisher with 13 of 15 wins inside the distance, showcasing pinpoint striking and accuracy. Nelson is on a resurgence but relies on striking and has been inconsistent. Padilla has advantages in reach, speed, and jiu-jitsu if the fight goes to the ground. I expect Padilla to utilize combination striking from distance and get a finish, likely by submission in the second round.

Paul picks Padilla but is not confident. He notes Padilla's dynamic offense and volume, but worries about unknowns and Nelson's durability and wrestling. He sees value in Nelson as a dog but ultimately sides with Padilla's speed and finishing ability.

Angelo picks Blake Bilder, citing his superior grappling and technical striking. He notes that Bilder is an aggressive grappler who doesn't take unnecessary risks, and that he should be able to control the fight. He acknowledges Kyle Nelson's decent losses and recent grappling improvements, but still believes Bilder gets the win. He considers Bilder for a safety parlay.

Big Brady picks Blake Bilder to win by third-round TKO. He notes that Bilder is extremely tough and has a high pace, while Kyle Nelson has cardio issues and tends to gas in fast-paced fights. Bilder often gets dropped early but comes back, and Nelson's best chance is wrestling, but his cardio will fail. He expects Bilder to take over late and finish.

Cody picks Blake Bilder, but suggests live betting him after the first round because Nelson may come out aggressively and could knock Bilder out early. He notes that Bilder has good cardio and a solid one-two, but his defense is shaky. He expects Bilder to take Nelson down and outwork him as Nelson tires. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds in this fight.

Connor picks Blake Bilder but is hesitant, noting that the test will come immediately while Bilder is still cold, which could be a prospect loss. He points out that Nelson is a very hard puncher with long reach, and that Bilder's only good sign was against Shane Young, who is not a high-level test. Connor acknowledges that Nelson's opponents tend to be fragile and get knocked out early, but since Bilder hasn't been knocked out yet, he won't pick against him. He thinks the odds movement toward Bilder is notable.

Daniel Levi picks Blake Bilder, citing that Bilder has better boxing, pace, and conditioning than Kyle Nelson. He notes that Nelson has low output and fades, while Bilder has shown a dog mentality and can push a high volume. He acknowledges that Bilder has a questionable chin and has been dropped before, but believes Nelson is too slow and telegraphed to capitalize. He warns against using Bilder as a heavy parlay piece.

James picks Blake Bilder to win but is not confident at -250. He thinks Bilder is more well-rounded and should get takedowns, possibly finding a submission in round two. However, he notes Kyle Nelson has more UFC experience, hits hard early, and is fighting for his job in Canada. James wouldn't be surprised if Nelson gets an early knockout or a split decision. He advises against laying -250 on Bilder as he's not a minus-250 type fighter.

Bilder has excellent lateral movement and a well-rounded game, while Nelson's only path is a puncher's chance. Nelson's attempts to grapple have failed due to poor cardio, and Bilder is the superior grappler. Expect Bilder to use his movement to set up takedowns, eventually finding a late submission. The stylistic matchup heavily favors Bilder.

Paul picks Blake Bilder, noting that Nelson has poor cardio and wrestling. He believes Bilder is the better wrestler and will take Nelson down, especially as Nelson fades. He expects a finish in the second or third round. He also mentions that Nelson's best chance is an early KO, but he thinks Bilder will survive and take over.

The MMA Guru picks Blake Bilder over Kyle Nelson, arguing that Nelson has shown his limit with poor performances and losses to low-level competition. He notes Bilder is undefeated and well-rounded, with a good ground and stand-up game. He believes Bilder's potential is unknown and worth gambling on, expecting him to outpoint Nelson.

Big Brady is wary of Choi's long layoff and recent losses. He thinks Nelson has power and a chance to knock out Choi early. He picks Nelson by first-round knockout but says he is not betting on the moneyline, only interested in the under.

Cody picks Choi, citing his superior skill set and speed. He notes that Choi's four-year layoff may actually benefit him by allowing his body to heal from previous damage. He believes Choi is a better striker, grappler, and wrestler than Nelson. He expects Choi to win by knockout or clear decision, and likes the under 2.5 rounds at -175.

Connor picks Dooho Choi, citing more concrete reasons to distrust Kyle Nelson. He notes that Nelson is self-defeating, with a tendency to fade after an initial burst, and that Choi is a good scrambler who won't be held down. However, he acknowledges Choi's long layoff and chin concerns, making this a low-confidence pick.

Paul picks Choi, emphasizing his skill advantage and the fact that Nelson is being fed as an easy opponent. He notes that Choi has always looked good early in fights but faded, and the layoff may help. He thinks Nelson's only path is to grind, but Choi's speed and accuracy should prevail. He also mentions the time zone advantage for Asian fighters.

Angelo picks Jai Herbert but expresses concern about Kyle Nelson's two-year layoff, noting it's hard to know what version of Nelson will show up. He highlights Herbert's technical striking and movement, and that he looked sharp before being knocked out by Ilia Topuria. He advises leaving Herbert out of parlays due to the uncertainty.

Big Brady picks Jai Herbert to win by first-round knockout. He loves Herbert's striking and power but notes his poor striking defense and chin. He thinks Kyle Nelson has power but a bad gas tank, and if the fight goes past the first round, Herbert takes over. He expects a knockout in the first round.

Cody picks Jai Herbert, citing his length, reach advantage, and excellent jab. He notes Nelson has been inactive for two years, moving up in weight, and has poor cardio and takedown defense. Cody thinks Herbert will dictate the outside and jab Nelson's face off. He predicts a first or second round knockout for Herbert.

Daniel Levi picks Jai Herbert, noting that this is a massive step down in competition for Herbert, who has been fighting tough opponents. He believes Herbert has better technique, length, and shot selection. Levi points out that Kyle Nelson is essentially knockout or bust, having only one KO since 2018, and questions Nelson's toughness relative to other UFC fighters.

Herbert is technically better, has a six-inch reach advantage, and should touch Nelson up. However, Herbert has a glass chin and Nelson has power. I think Herbert finishes him in the second or third round. The fight doesn't go to decision is a good parlay piece.

Paul picks Kyle Nelson at +235, calling it a dogger pass. He notes Nelson throws absolute hammers and Herbert's chin is questionable. Paul thinks the fight is high variance and Herbert has been rocked many times. He likes Nelson inside the distance at +350 or by KO at +600.

Big Brady is very high on Billy Quarantillo, citing his unreal heart, toughness, and cardio. He notes Quarantillo tends to drop the first round but if he survives, he will win convincingly. He recommends getting the fight to the ground to tire Nelson, and predicts a second-round submission.

The host believes Quarantillo's pace, pressure, and black belt jiu-jitsu will be too much for Nelson, who has cardio issues and poor takedown defense. He expects a submission victory, likely in the second round, and likes the inside the distance prop at +110 as better value than the moneyline.