UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · Mar 15, 2025 · Heavyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 Next Fight
Age 34
Height 6' 4"
Reach 78"
Weight 260 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 34
Height 6' 5"
Reach 79.0"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Waldo Cortes Acosta
5.54 SLpM
49.0% Str. Acc.
3.38 SApM
56.0% Str. Def.
0.44 TD Avg
57.0% TD Acc.
72.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Ryan Spann
3.19 SLpM
39.0% Str. Acc.
4.14 SApM
43.0% Str. Def.
1.3 TD Avg
34.0% TD Acc.
52.0% TD Def.
1.8 Sub. Avg
Waldo Cortes Acosta - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 328 · May 09, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexander Volkov 0 88 of 143 61% 88 of 143 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 54 of 130 41% 54 of 130 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexander Volkov 0 33 of 44 75% 33 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 15 of 33 45% 15 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Alexander Volkov 0 34 of 56 60% 34 of 56 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 22 of 47 46% 22 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Alexander Volkov 0 21 of 43 48% 21 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 17 of 50 34% 17 of 50 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexander Volkov 88 of 143 61% 22 of 70 23 of 29 43 of 44 88 of 143 0 of 0 0 of 0
Waldo Cortes Acosta 54 of 130 41% 30 of 91 6 of 13 18 of 26 53 of 129 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexander Volkov 33 of 44 75% 4 of 14 8 of 8 21 of 22 33 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
Waldo Cortes Acosta 15 of 33 45% 7 of 21 2 of 4 6 of 8 15 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Alexander Volkov 34 of 56 60% 13 of 31 7 of 11 14 of 14 34 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Waldo Cortes Acosta 22 of 47 46% 8 of 29 3 of 6 11 of 12 22 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Alexander Volkov 21 of 43 48% 5 of 25 8 of 10 8 of 8 21 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
Waldo Cortes Acosta 17 of 50 34% 15 of 41 1 of 3 1 of 6 16 of 49 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Volkov (-180), Cortes-Acosta (+150)

Round 1
Although the UFC’s heavyweight title picture is in flux with Tom Aspinall still recovering, Jon Jones suggesting that Elvis has left the building and Ciryl Gane battling Alex Pereira for the interim strap, this next one might end up serving as a de facto eliminator match. Volkov (39-11, 13-5 UFC) may have questionably come up on the wrong end of the scorecards in his rematch with Gane, and a win could propel him back to gold. Standing in his way will be surging former pitcher Cortes-Acosta (17-2, 10-2 UFC), who has won three straight. Referee Mike Beltran will take charge of the big men, standing back as they lumber towards one another without a glove touch in sight.
Volkov starts off with kicks to the lead leg and body. He alternates them while Cortes-Acosta tries to get a read on his way in. Volkov keeps pecking away with these distance-keeping kicks, and he takes a flush jab on the nose. Cortes-Acosta whiffs on a right hand follow-up, but his low kick scores with an audible thud. Cortes-Acosta chases after the Russian, coiling back his right hand to attack. Volkov keeps to his preferred range, bringing up a foot just short of the face and going right back to the front leg. Volkov lands a low kick, and Cortes-Acosta charges him behind four punches that largely careen off the raised guard. Cortes-Acosta again tries to swarm, but Volkov slips and clips him with a left hook while escaping.
Volkov peppers the midsection with his foot as fans chant his name, and he is in range for just one punch before strafing to the side. Volkov beats on the lead leg a few more times, doing so until Cortes-Acosta leans down to try to catch it. Cortes-Acosta does not get the leg, so he wings power punches that miss the mark. Volkov slams his shin in the body, and he is met with a jab and sees the overhand coming at him. Volkov pushes off the belly and spins away before absorbing anything of merit. Cortes-Acosta blitzes him and lands a left hand flush, and Volkov splits off and continues his decimation of the front leg. Volkov’s one-two misses, and Cortes-Acosta rallies with his own jab. Cortes-Acosta digs a left hand to the side, and his overhand right misses while Volkov is resetting. Volkov lands a few more kicks as the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Volkov

Round 2
The heavyweights do not break their gaze when leaving their corners, and Volkov picks up where he left off with a slapping body kick. Cortes-Acosta smacks his side to draw more on, and he wings a right hand that buzzes the tower. Volkov ducks a monster punch to clinch up, and Cortes-Acosta lashes out with an elbow that is an inch away from doing damage. Volkov works the inside of the front leg, and he stays planted too long and is clubbed with a right hand. Volkov circles off and plants a front kick on the stomach and another to the front leg. Volkov offers a high kick up and dances away from the counters he knows are coming, and he does not slow on working the front leg with his kicks. Cortes-Acosta kicks him back a few times, but the impact of the swings differs significantly. Volkov lances Cortes-Acosta with a one-two, moving to the side as he is more intent on breaking his foe down than outright knocking him flat.
The low kicks are starting to have an impact, with Cortes-Acosta tripping up on his way in. Cortes-Acosta lobs a bomb of a right hand, and Volkov shifts to the side. Cortes-Acosta points to the ground to try to initiate a brawl, angrily shouting at his opponent. Volkov welcomes this by blasting Cortes-Acosta in the face with a left hand that staggers him. Cortes-Acosta backs off and tries to lure his foe in, but Volkov is smart and just tags him on the outside. Volkov’s body kick gets through, and he leans away as Cortes-Acosta telegraphs his swings. He scores a low kick, and a frustrated Cortes-Acosta turns his hips into one coming back at him. Volkov flicks out a body kick and brushes Cortes-Acosta’s hair with his shin, catching a leaning Cortes-Acosta with a long right hand. A think trickle of blood leaks from the top of Volkov’s cheek, and he does not change his game plan one iota as he rips the body. Cortes-Acosta crashes at him with heavy punches, only to be jabbed back by the Russian. Volkov’s final inside low kick of the round draws a noteworthy reaction out of his opponent, with Cortes-Acosta limping back to lean on his corner.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Volkov

Round 3
Cortes-Acosta is the aggressor to start the final frame, whether he is tied on the scorecards or down on them, it does not matter. He flicks a low kick at the Russian, slowly working his way to crowd forward. Volkov chambers and looses a kick to the ribs, and he goes upstairs and then to the sternum in rapid succession. Cortes-Acosta’s own counter kick does not land, and he gets his leg kicked out from beneath him when rushing forward. Cortes-Acosta lunges with his fingers outstretched and jams one in Volkov’s eye, and Beltran is about to have them play through it but calls time instead to let Volkov recover. When they resume, Cortes-Acosta is angry. The Dominican starts hurling bombs, and Volkov suddenly freezes him with a jab directly into the eye socket. Volkov’s nose is pouring blood out after absorbing a bomb or two, but Cortes-Acosta is the one who appears to be struggling more as Volkov pecks away at him. Volkov digs a kick to the body and leans as a right hand upstairs brushes past his hair. Cortes-Acosta loads up on big firepower, further bloodying up the Russian’s nose as he headhunts. Volkov stands in the pocket too long to absorb a flush uppercut, but his position allows him to jab out with a front kick that sucks some of the air out of Cortes-Acosta’s lungs.
Cortes-Acosta rushes forward for a takedown, and Volkov stonewalls him and shoves him to the fence. Cortes-Acosta breaks off with a knee to the body. Volkov backs off, breathing hard as he struggles to get any air through his bloodied nostrils, and he offers up a body kick. Volkov hammers the front leg with a kick, and Cortes-Acosta has his right hand coiled and ready to launch. Cortes-Acosta uses power jabs, targeting the beacon that is Volkov’s red and shiny nose. Volkov jabs him back, and he dodges a missile of a right hand by a whisker. Volkov pins a one-two on the nose and lands two low kicks, the second of which staggering Cortes-Acosta. Cortes-Acosta still goes out swinging furiously, and he tries to get one last brawl with seconds left. Volkov gets on his bike after jabbing and chopping at the front leg, and he stays out of range as time runs out.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (29-28 Volkov)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (29-28 Volkov)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (29-28 Volkov)

The Official Result
Alexander Volkov def. Waldo Cortes-Acosta via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Angelo picks Waldo Cortes Acosta, betting on him at +160. He cites Waldo's athleticism, youth, and power, and notes that Volkov doesn't hit very hard. He thinks Waldo's footwork and takedown threat will be key, and that Volkov's only path is to wrestle, which Waldo can defend.

bet on Waldo at plus 160
"I'm picking Waldo here. I even bet on Waldo at plus 160."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 3, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Angelo picks Waldo Cortes Acosta as a dog, citing his athleticism, speed, and power. He notes Volkov has no takedown defense and Waldo can close distance without fear of Volkov's power. He mentions Waldo's win over Derrick Lewis and his ability to out-strike and out-grapple. He is concerned about Volkov's offensive wrestling but still picks Waldo. He likes the dog odds.

Angelo mentions Waldo is a dog and he likes a good amount of dogs on this card.
"I'm still picking him. He's a dog. I'm going to run with that. I think the athleticism is really going to be the difference here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Big Brady leans Alexander Volkov, noting his better volume and tools on the feet. He questions Waldo's performances in decisions and thinks Volkov's chin is solid. Brady expects Volkov to win by decision, as Waldo is tough and can eat shots, but Volkov should outpoint him.

"I'm leaning Volkov here. I'm going to take Volkov to win this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Cody picks Acosta as an underdog, citing his speed, boxing, and youth advantage over the older Volkov. He notes Volkov's inconsistency and questionable durability, and believes Acosta can win on the feet. Cody acknowledges the risk but likes the plus money value.

"I only got a handful of underdogs that I'm going to back on this card. And sadly, Waldo is one of them."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 7, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Connor picks Volkov, agreeing with Zane. He highlights Volkov's improved confidence and mean streak in his third act, and notes Acosta's lack of adjustments. Connor believes Volkov's jab and reach will be too much, and Acosta has no way out when stuck in a bad style matchup.

Odds: Volkov opened -185, now -160; Acosta opened +160, now +140. Connor says it should be wider.
"It's gotta be a Volkov one."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked May 8, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Daniel picks Acosta despite acknowledging Volkov's veteran skills and potential for a clinic. He notes Acosta's athleticism, confidence, and recent wins, and admits he has been wrong about Acosta before. Daniel feels he must pick Acosta now, even though he fears Volkov will win as a result.

"I just feel bad that I've counted this guy out so many times. He keeps proving me wrong. I feel like I got to pick him here. And now obviously Volkov's going to win as a result, but I'm gonna …"
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked May 8, 2026 (1 day before fight)

The host does not bet this fight. He sees it as competitive on the feet, with Volkov having a grappling edge if he chooses to use it. He notes both have bad takedown defense and ground games, but Volkov's top game is heavy. He passes because if it stays standing, it's razor close, and if Volkov grapples, he could dominate. He also mentions the over/under but does not bet.

No bet. Mentions over 1.5 rounds at 3.50 as tempting but passes.
"I'm not going to touch this one from a betting point of view because I think if it does stay standing... this one will be razor close."
FI
FightingPost AI Expert Lean picked May 9, 2026 (fight day)
Alexander Volkov

Predicted method: Decision. Volkov's significant height and reach advantage (6'7", 80" reach) allows him to control distance with his jab and long strikes against the shorter Cortes Acosta. Cortes Acosta has power (recent KOs over Derrick Lewis and Shamil Gaziev) but tends to be hittable (3.38 SApM) and may struggle against Volkov's technical striking. Volkov's takedown defense (68%) is adequate, and he has shown improved grappling. However, Cortes Acosta's momentum and KO power make this a dangerous fight. Volkov should win by decision if he keeps it standing.

Volkov by decision +155
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Jacob picks Volkov, noting that Volkov rarely loses striking matches and is excellent at keeping range. He thinks the fight will look like the Pavlovich fight where Waldo backs up and can't land enough. He believes the odds should be closer to 50/50 and that Volkov is the better striker.

"Volkov, I don't know if you heard me when he walked away, but he really lose striking matches. So, I got to go Volkov."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked May 3, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Lucrative James leans towards Alexander Volkov because he believes Volkov's kickboxing and experience will outpoint Cortes-Acosta over three rounds. He notes that Cortes-Acosta has struggled in longer kickboxing fights against Sergey Spivac and Sergey Pavlovich, and that Volkov is a true kickboxer. He also mentions Cortes-Acosta's recent hamstring injury as a concern. He predicts Volkov by decision.

"I lean to the Alexander Volkov side in this fight. ... I got Vulov winning via decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked May 5, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

The host picks Volkov but is hesitant due to Cortes Acosta's speed advantage. He believes Volkov has advantages in striking, grappling, and experience, and should outwork Cortes Acosta. He expects a decision win, but notes the speed difference gives him pause. He may wait for a better line.

"I'll go Volkov and Volkov by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Paul picks Volkov, citing his size, reach, and wrestling ability. He thinks Volkov can take Acosta down and control him, as Acosta has not faced elite wrestlers. Paul also mentions a small bet on Volkov by submission at plus 2000, noting Volkov's submission skills.

Volkov by submission (plus 2000)
"I still like Volkov here. There's been some money coming in on Waldo. I understand Waldo's pretty fast on the feet."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 7, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

The MMA Guru picks Alexander Volkov, praising his underrated resume and recent performances. He notes Volkov's wins over Pavlovich and close fight with Gane. He believes Volkov's low kicks, clinch work, and body attacks will be key against Cortes Acosta, who he sees as a 'blob'. He predicts Volkov will pick him apart, possibly with a body kick KO.

"I am going to go with Alexander Vulov, but I love this matchup."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 7, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Zane picks Volkov, citing his resurgence and stylistic advantage. He notes Volkov's jab and reach will trouble Acosta, who is an artless slugger with few ideas. Zane points out that Acosta has no wrestling threat, which is Volkov's historical weakness. He expects Volkov to control the fight with his jab and counters, though it's heavyweight so anything can happen.

Odds: Volkov opened -185, now -160; Acosta opened +160, now +140. Zane says it should be wider.
"It's gotta be a Volkov one."
WIN vs Derrick Lewis
KO R2 3:14 · UFC 324 · Jan 24, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Waldo Cortes Acosta 1 44 of 62 70% 46 of 64 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:28
Derrick Lewis 0 8 of 43 18% 8 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 12 of 16 75% 14 of 18 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:16
Derrick Lewis 0 4 of 22 18% 4 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Waldo Cortes Acosta 1 32 of 46 69% 32 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Derrick Lewis 0 4 of 21 19% 4 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Waldo Cortes Acosta 44 of 62 70% 35 of 53 5 of 5 4 of 4 27 of 45 1 of 1 16 of 16
Derrick Lewis 8 of 43 18% 6 of 37 2 of 5 0 of 1 8 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Waldo Cortes Acosta 12 of 16 75% 7 of 11 3 of 3 2 of 2 11 of 15 0 of 0 1 of 1
Derrick Lewis 4 of 22 18% 3 of 17 1 of 4 0 of 1 4 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Waldo Cortes Acosta 32 of 46 69% 28 of 42 2 of 2 2 of 2 16 of 30 1 of 1 15 of 15
Derrick Lewis 4 of 21 19% 3 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Derrick Lewis
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Cortes-Acosta (-355), Lewis (+280)

Round 1
Faces are about to get punched by fists the size of lunchboxes. Heavyweights ready and willing to inflict some serious damage will trade bungalows, and only one man expects to be standing when it is all said and done. Cortes-Acosta (16-2, 9-2 UFC) has momentum behind him as well as a six-year age advantage, but he has to throw down with Lewis (29-12, 1 NC; 20-10 UFC). Whether Lewis will suffer another defeat against a tough talent or spring yet another brutal upset knockout, we will know in the next 15 minutes or fewer. Referee Jason Herzog has donned his proverbial hard hat ahead of the mighty swings about to come. There is no plan for a glove touch.
Lewis says hello with a jumping front kick, and Cortes-Acosta easily swats it out of the air. Lewis then kicks low, and the Dominican ignores it and slowly walks down his opponent before kicking him back. Cortes-Acosta jabs with the ball of his foot to the stomach, and he aims a jab to the same spot before leaning back to dodge a left hook. Lewis pitches a jumping head kick that bangs into the guard, and Cortes-Acosta looks surprised that the relative elder statesman and 264-pounder can get his leg up there repeatedly. Cortes-Acosta does not stick his face in the hornet’s nest, instead peeking out behind his jab occasionally. The lack of activity has made fans immediately restless, so Lewis calms them briefly with a failed head kick while touching Cortes-Acosta at the end of a reaching right hand.
There is a lull in the action as no one wants to commit, with Lewis always threatening that he is going to unleash something but pulling back more often than not. When Lewis does lunge forward, Cortes-Acosta bats him back with a counter as he stays in his preferred range chopping away at the front wheel. Cortes-Acosta fires off a one-two that grazes the side of the dome, and Lewis’ counter goes wide. Lewis lets rip a body kick, and Cortes-Acosta catches it and hangs onto it until Lewis flops to his back. Cortes-Acosta lords over him kicking the legs, and he hangs onto an ankle to punch the body a few times. Herzog tells him to choose whether he wants to let Lewis up, and he does. Lewis gingerly gets back to his feet, and walks right into a jab. Lewis lets fly a kick, and Cortes-Acosta slips when dodging it to bounce off the cage. Lewis lashes out with looping punches, and the younger man dodges and weaves away from every one. Cortes-Acosta’s jab ends the tepid round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta

Round 2
The heavyweights pick up where they left off, with Cortes-Acosta probing with jabs while Lewis tries high-amplitude, generally inaccurate offense. Lewis scores a body kick in the midst of a surge, but Cortes-Acosta is no worse for wear and keeps the jab right in Lewis’ face. Lewis walks face-first into a clean right hand that surprises him, and he lumbers forward to grab hold of his foe who is out of the way. Cortes-Acosta lets him bounce off the fencing so he can keep pecking at him, and he jams the front leg with a kick. Lewis wades forward with his hands down, taking the jab on the forehead so he can close in. He lobs a big left and a bigger right, but Cortes-Acosta is already two steps ahead of him. Cortes-Acosta snaps the head back with his jab, and he follows one with a right hand down the pipe. “Salsa Boy” keeps probing with his flustering jab, disrupting what Lewis has to offer before it gets thrown.
Cortes-Acosta walks Lewis down fearlessly, and he rolls with a looping left hook and puts his hand in the air to signal that he dodged it. Cortes-Acosta jabs the head and body, and he leans back to take the sting out of a Lewis overhand right.
When absorbing a jab, Lewis slips and feebly falls to his back. The frustrated Lewis turns to his knees under fire, seemingly out of the fight. Lewis turtles up as the Dominican pelts him with right hands, and Herzog urges Lewis to fight on but Lewis will not.
Punches continue to mount until Herzog waves the fight off, and the building does not respond positively to the stoppage or the victor.

The Official Result
Waldo Cortes-Acosta def. Derrick Lewis R2 3:14 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Angelo picks Waldo Cortes Acosta, citing his athleticism, speed, and technical striking. He acknowledges Derrick Lewis's knockout power but believes Waldo's chin and volume will carry him. He notes Waldo was rocked in his last fight but trusts his durability. He says the odds are probably accurate but warns it's a Derrick Lewis fight where anything can happen.

"Waldo's going to be the pick. He's going to have to be careful here. And I'm medium level confidence. ... minus 330. Honestly, probably accurate, but it's a Derrick Lewis fight and anything could happen."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2026 (9 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Big Brady highlights Waldo's durability, noting he ate bombs from Pavlovich and smiled. He thinks Lewis is knockout-or-bust and Waldo is a much better minute-winner. He expects Waldo to cruise to a decision win, as Lewis likely can't knock him out.

Cortes Acosta by decision
"I think Waldo is extremely durable. I think between the two, Waldo's a million times more durable than Lewis."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jan 21, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Cody picks Waldo Cortes-Acosta but is hesitant due to the price tag. He notes Waldo's jab and footwork could give Lewis problems, but worries about Waldo's tendency to be hesitant against power punchers. Cody sees Waldo winning more often than not but prefers not to lay the heavy price.

"I kind of went the other way. But uh you know how we make picks on every single fight, but the bottom line is some of those you can pass on."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Jan 22, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Derrick Lewis

Connor picks Derrick Lewis, relying on his proven ability to change a fight with one punch or a wild technique (e.g., flying knee). He argues that Waldo Cortes Acosta is not a consistent fighter and can be drawn into brawls, as seen against Ryan Spann. Connor also notes that Lewis has a history of winning fights he's losing (e.g., Volkov, Hunt) and that his dynamism is a constant threat. However, he admits Lewis's calm has eroded in recent years.

Waldo opened at -205, now -330; Lewis opened at +175, now +270. Connor says the odds are a little wide given Lewis's danger.
"I gotta have the heavyweight dynamic finisher."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Jan 8, 2026 (16 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Daniel Vreeland picks Waldo Cortes-Acosta but is hesitant. He notes that he has been wrong about Cortes-Acosta before, picking against him in his last two fights. He acknowledges Lewis's knockout power and get-up game, but believes Cortes-Acosta has momentum and is coming into his own. Vreeland warns that Lewis is always dangerous and that this is a tough fight to call.

"I'm going to go Waldo Cortez Aosta. He's got the momentum on his side. Seems like he's coming into his own."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2026 (10 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

James picks Cortes-Acosta via decision, citing his superior boxing and durability. He notes Lewis is on a downtrend, often quitting when tired, and that Cortes-Acosta is smart enough to avoid Lewis's power bursts. He mentions the over 1.5 rounds as a potential prop.

over 1.5 rounds
"I'm pretty [ __ ] confident on Waldo Cortez A Costa here. I think he's the better striker."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 20, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

The host expects Cortes Acosta to use his pesky jab and body work to slow down Derrick Lewis, eventually leading to a TKO finish. He notes Cortes Acosta's improved chin and durability, believing he can eat Lewis's best shots. However, he hesitates to play the -350 line, suggesting the method of victory might be a better bet. He predicts the fight won't go to the scorecards.

Cortes Acosta by TKO, fight doesn't go to decision
"I feel like he can eat the best shot from Derrick Lewis. Still come forward, still land his pesky jab, really just stay on uh Lewis and I think that eventually leads to a TKO finish for Waldo Cortez Acasta."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 21, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Derrick Lewis

Paul picks Derrick Lewis by KO, viewing it as a system play. He acknowledges Waldo is more likely to win but believes Lewis's power is a game-changer. Paul notes Lewis's age and cardio issues but says power is the last to go, and he likes the plus money on Lewis by KO.

Derrick Lewis by KO
"Lewis by KO. I it's just it's just more of a system play at this point in his career. He's 41. Yes. He's you know I think he's given up certain skills and abilities, but he's got the one thing …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 23, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

The MMA Guru picks Waldo Cortes Acosta, citing his talented hands and recent activity. He believes Derrick Lewis's one-dimensional striking will be countered, and that Lewis will quit after getting cracked. He predicts a first-round TKO.

first round TKO
"I think this is going to be a Waldo Cortez Aosta first round TKO."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Jan 22, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Zane leans toward Waldo Cortes Acosta, citing his youth (34) and calm, consistent approach. He notes that Derrick Lewis has lost his composure in recent fights and tends to brawl recklessly, which plays into Waldo's patient counter-striking. However, Zane acknowledges that Lewis has dynamic fight-changing power and could land a lucky shot. He also mentions that Waldo is not a consistent finisher and could be outpointed if Lewis fights smart.

Waldo opened at -205, now -330; Lewis opened at +175, now +270. Zane says the odds are a little wide given Lewis's danger.
"I'm leaning towards Waldo here, but just because he's a young man and he's 34."
WIN vs Shamil Gaziev
KO R1 1:22 · UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · Nov 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Waldo Cortes Acosta 2 10 of 21 47% 15 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Shamil Gaziev 0 6 of 15 40% 6 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Waldo Cortes Acosta 2 10 of 21 47% 15 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Shamil Gaziev 0 6 of 15 40% 6 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Waldo Cortes Acosta 10 of 21 47% 8 of 19 1 of 1 1 of 1 9 of 18 0 of 1 1 of 2
Shamil Gaziev 6 of 15 40% 4 of 13 1 of 1 1 of 1 6 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Waldo Cortes Acosta 10 of 21 47% 8 of 19 1 of 1 1 of 1 9 of 18 0 of 1 1 of 2
Shamil Gaziev 6 of 15 40% 4 of 13 1 of 1 1 of 1 6 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Shamil Gaziev
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Cortes-Acosta (-160); Gaziev (+130)

Round 1
It’s time for the big boys again. Let us hope it is nothing like the travesty of the curtain jerker today, and that there is no eye poke silliness to speak of. Looking to become the heavyweight version of Donald Cerrone, Cortes-Acosta (15-2, 8-2 UFC) steps in on short notice to replace Serghei Spivac. In an amusing twist of fate, “Salsa Boy” previously replaced Gaziev (14-1, 3-1 UFC) against Spivac earlier this year. While Cortes-Acosta wants to fight six times this year—meaning, he wants to serve as a replacement fighter for one of the next two final UFC cards in 2026 providing he gets out of this unscathed—he will have to handle the Bahraini first. Referee Lukasz Bosacki has his hands full as these big lugs tipped the scales at a combined 527 pounds on Friday, but he takes a breath of relief as they touch gloves and do not appear to hold any ill will towards one another.
Gaziev fearlessly marches forward to start the fight, putting Cortes-Acosta’s back to the fence and aiming straight punches at him. Cortes-Acosta flicks a few jabs back at him, and Gaziev smiles at him and sways from most. Gaziev clubs Cortes-Acosta with a left hand, and Cortes-Acosta snaps into action and counters Gaziev with a balance-destroying right. Cortes-Acosta tries to pound out Gaziev when he hits the floor, but Gaziev stands and backs off, shaking off the cobwebs. Cortes-Acosta, smelling blood in the water, starts to set something up as he flashes jab after jab.
When the opening presents itself, he hurls a fastball of a right hand that crashes square into Gaziev’s temple. The Bahrain native collapses to his back and clutches his face, still with it but no longer defending himself. Cortes-Acosta drops to a knee to deliver one final hammerfist, but it glances off Bosacki’s protective arm as he has already stepped in to wave things off given Gaziev’s sign of physical surrender.
The fight over, Gaziev slowly rolls to his knees, and he is beside himself after getting smoked like that. That marks four wins in 2025 for Cortes-Acosta, who still wants one more—on December 13 at the year-end Fight Night—and dons his eye patch and bandana to represent his pirate self.

The Official Result
Waldo Cortes-Acosta def. Shamil Gaziev R1 1:22 via KO (Punch)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Shamil Gaziev

Angelo picks Shamil Gaziev over Waldo Cortes Acosta, despite mocking Gaziev's appearance. He notes Gaziev is a much better striker with power and capable wrestling, while Acosta is a grappler who can be outworked and out-athleted. Gaziev should dominate on the feet and keep the fight standing, leading to a win.

"The pick is because he's the much better striker. I think he's a very capable wrestler and he can keep this fight standing."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Shamil Gaziev

Big Brady leans Shamil Gaziev by first-round knockout, despite acknowledging Spivak's inconsistency. He believes Gaziev's power and forward pressure will overwhelm Spivak, who has been knocked out by lesser fighters. He notes Spivak's path via grappling but can't count on him to execute.

first round KO
"Give me Gaziev to win this fight and I think it's by first round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Shamil Gaziev

Cody picks Shamil Gaziev but is not confident. He notes both fighters have awful cardio, but Gaziev has better wrestling and power. Cody believes Gaziev can knock out Spivac early, as Spivac gasses quickly and has poor takedown defense. He mentions the location in Qatar might favor Gaziev.

"I'm going to take Shil, maybe a Shil by TKO if you want to get degenerate with it."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Connor picks Spivak (Waldo Cortes Acosta), predicting that Gaziev will gas after an early takedown attempt, allowing Spivak to take over with his clinch and jab. He notes Gaziev's poor defensive striking and tendency to fade, while Spivak manages fights well. Connor acknowledges Gaziev's speed and power could lead to an early KO.

Spivak by decision or late TKO; Gaziev could win early
"I'll take Spivak too. But he might also just crush, Ghaziv might also just crush him in the first round."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Shamil Gaziev

Lucrative James picks Shamil Gaziev, citing his power striking and durability. He notes Sergey Spivac's questionable mentality and recent poor performances. He believes Gaziev's power will be too much and predicts a knockout win. He also mentions Spivac's camp change as a potential negative.

"I think Gazv is probably going to finish him to be honest, man."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Nov 18, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Shamil Gaziev

Gaziev has knockout power and physicality. Spivac is on a losing streak and may struggle with Gaziev's strength. Gaziev should land a big shot and finish Spivac by the second round.

Gaziev by knockout in round 2
"Give me Gaz and Gaz by knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Shamil Gaziev

Paul leans towards Gaziev, citing his wrestling and power. He notes that Spivac has poor cardio and has been finished when tired. Paul believes Gaziev can take Spivac down or knock him out early, but acknowledges it's a greasy fight.

"I'll side with Gazv but um don't love it."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Shamil Gaziev

The MMA Guru picks Shamil Gaziev over Waldo Cortes Acosta, citing Gaziev's pressure and ability to barrage opponents. He notes Spivak's vulnerability when pressured. He expects a close decision, with Gaziev undeniable as the fight goes on.

Shamil Gaziev to fight for more than 1.5 total rounds (from earlier prizepicks segment)
"I'm going to go with Shamil Gaziev getting this one done by decision."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Spivak. He notes that Gaziev's cardio is a major issue and that Spivak's reach and jab will become factors as the fight progresses. Zane sees Spivak as a competent heavyweight who can survive early danger and take over late.

Spivak by decision; Gaziev likely to fade
"I'm going to pick him to survive and take over. But yeah, he just might not."
WIN vs Ante Delija
KO R1 3:59 · UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · Nov 01, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Waldo Cortes Acosta 1 12 of 17 70% 18 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:37
Ante Delija 0 16 of 36 44% 18 of 38 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:25
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Waldo Cortes Acosta 1 12 of 17 70% 18 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:37
Ante Delija 0 16 of 36 44% 18 of 38 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:25
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Waldo Cortes Acosta 12 of 17 70% 9 of 11 2 of 5 1 of 1 4 of 8 2 of 3 6 of 6
Ante Delija 16 of 36 44% 13 of 33 2 of 2 1 of 1 15 of 33 1 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Waldo Cortes Acosta 12 of 17 70% 9 of 11 2 of 5 1 of 1 4 of 8 2 of 3 6 of 6
Ante Delija 16 of 36 44% 13 of 33 2 of 2 1 of 1 15 of 33 1 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Ante Delija
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Cortes-Acosta (-105); Delija (-115)

Round 1
Heavyweights will test the structural integrity of this smaller cage in the co-main event of this Apex card. While Dominican Republic native Cortes-Acosta (14-2, 7-2 UFC) approached the divisional limit by weighing about 263 pounds, former PFL champ Delija (26-6, 1-0 UFC) is in the butter zone of the weight class at 238. Together with referee Mark Smith, they will easily surpass 600 pounds in the cage, but it hardly makes a groan from their weight. Before the two hurl their large fists at one another, they opt to tap their gloves together.
Smith has to tell the two to close their fists right after the fist bump, because they are outstretched towards one another and pushed out those directions. Delija walks Cortes-Acosta down looking for a big right hand, and he takes a clubbing right on the chest for his effort. Delija crashes the pocket and drills “Salsa Boy” on the temple, and Cortes-Acosta responds with a takedown effort that only puts the Croatian man against the wall. Cortes-Acosta digs knees to the body, and when they slow down, Smith asks for more activity. Cortes-Acosta winds up with an effective knee to the ribs, and Delija calmly waits until there is a moment to escape and does it.
Delija flicks out a jab and shoots for a double, and he now has “Salsa Boy” with his back against the wire, dealing with his weight pressed. The larger Cortes-Acosta spins his man around before long, and he raps an elbow on the forehead when otherwise staying close. Delija fights out of the tie-up and wants to box up Cortes-Acosta, marching the Dominican fighter down and busting him in the chops with a furious combination of punches. Delija keeps slugging Cortes-Acosta in the face, hurting him badly, and he pushes out with a left hand to jab Cortes-Acosta in the eyeball before letting loose with a massive stream of punches. Smith gets between them and shouts “stop!” several times, but then has to call the replay official of Herb Dean to check on whether Cortes-Acosta’s eye was poked or if they were all punches landing cleanly and legally. Teammates, medical professionals and commissioners all flood the cage to figure out what happened. The video shows that Delija’s finger slid into the eye socket, and no five-minute clock starts for recovery time. Instead, Smith states that if Cortes-Acosta is able to continue, he does have the ability to restart the fight. It is a bizarre scene, one that is growingly and frustratingly common in the promotion, and it gives Cortes-Acosta one of two options. If he cannot continue, it will be a no contest. If he says he can keep going, the fight will actually resume. Throw out the rulebook at this point. Smith warns Cortes-Acosta for the foul, and with 90 seconds left in the first round, they start fighting again.
They are cautious to engage, both jabbing at one another with their fists firmly closed.
Delija sits down on a jab, and Cortes-Acosta counters him with a brilliant right hand over the top knocking him down to the canvas. Cortes-Acosta leaps on top to pound out Delija, and Smith only lets Cortes-Acosta drum away for a few seconds before waving things off.
This is ridiculous. Cortes-Acosta walks back to his corner and collapses to the mat in pain, clutching his eye and keeping a towel pressed on it for several minutes. He just accomplished an absolutely wild comeback, albeit one that will come with a great deal of scrutiny and review. To say this whole debacle flew in the face of protocols, regulations and procedure is an understatement. We’ll see what happens.

The Official Result
Waldo Cortes-Acosta def. Ante Delija R1 3:59 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Ante Delija

Angelo picks Ante Delija, believing he is more well-rounded and slightly better everywhere than Waldo Cortes Acosta. He highlights Delija's forward pressure, striking, takedowns, and grit, and notes his win over Marcin Tybura. He thinks Delija will get takedowns, grind, and strike with Waldo, and that Waldo is finally fighting someone better everywhere. He will spend $8,000 on Delija in his DraftKings lineup.

"I think he will get the takedowns. I think he will grind. I think he will strike with Waldo."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Big Brady picks Waldo Cortes Acosta, citing his excellent chin and durability, having eaten shots from heavy hitters like Sergey Pavlovich. He notes Ante Delija knocked out Martin Tybura, but Tybura has a weak chin. He expects a competitive fight going the distance, with Waldo's volume and pressure taking over in the later rounds. He predicts a decision win for Waldo.

decision, plus 115 underdog
"I'm going to pick Waldo Cortez A Costa to get the job done. ... Waldo by decision in that one."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Connor also picks Waldo, noting that even in the Pavlovich loss, Waldo settled in and made it competitive. He thinks Waldo's fights trend toward the mean and that Delija's win over Tabora doesn't mean much. He expresses distrust in Delija and believes Waldo's unearned confidence will carry him.

"I'll take Waldo."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Ante Delija

Lucrative James picks Ante Delija as the underdog, citing his training at a top European heavyweight camp with Tom Aspinall and others, which gives him advantages in sparring and preparation. He believes Delija has knockout power and a grappling edge, especially in clinch positions. While Cortes-Acosta is a better technical boxer with more UFC experience, James favors Delija's early finishing ability and motivation.

"I'm going to take the undernog in this one. I'm going to take Ante Dea."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Ante Delija

Delija started as underdog but now is around -140. He mixes his game up better than Spivac, throws harder punches, and masks takedowns and clinch attempts well. This will cause Cortes Acosta problems, leading to a decision win for Delija.

odds movement from underdog to -140
"Delia started off as the underdog, but now finds himself around that minus 140 range and for good reason. ... That should lead to Dio winning this fight on the scorecards."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Ante Delija

The MMA Guru picks Ante Delija, believing he has improved massively and will use low kicks and teeps to outwork Waldo Cortes Acosta. He doubts Waldo's reach and thinks Delija's conditioning and game plan will secure a 29-28 decision. He notes Delija's training with Tom Aspinall.

"I'm going to go with Ante Delija here. I said he's improved massively. I said he would beat Tybura... And he proved me right."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Zane picks Waldo because he believes Delija is a stiff, awkward fighter who relies on one big moment, and Waldo's defining characteristic is not screwing up badly. He thinks Waldo will stay ahead by not making major mistakes and that Delija lacks clear tools to be better. He notes Waldo is the underdog but still picks him.

"So I have to pick Waldo over at Andy Delia."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · Aug 23, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sergei Pavlovich 0 61 of 133 45% 63 of 136 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:08
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 45 of 117 38% 45 of 117 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sergei Pavlovich 0 9 of 28 32% 11 of 31 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 11 of 34 32% 11 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Sergei Pavlovich 0 22 of 43 51% 22 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 20 of 37 54% 20 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Sergei Pavlovich 0 30 of 62 48% 30 of 62 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:02
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 14 of 46 30% 14 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sergei Pavlovich 61 of 133 45% 35 of 104 12 of 14 14 of 15 60 of 131 1 of 2 0 of 0
Waldo Cortes Acosta 45 of 117 38% 27 of 88 4 of 10 14 of 19 45 of 114 0 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sergei Pavlovich 9 of 28 32% 6 of 24 1 of 1 2 of 3 8 of 26 1 of 2 0 of 0
Waldo Cortes Acosta 11 of 34 32% 5 of 20 1 of 4 5 of 10 11 of 31 0 of 3 0 of 0
2 Sergei Pavlovich 22 of 43 51% 13 of 32 5 of 7 4 of 4 22 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
Waldo Cortes Acosta 20 of 37 54% 15 of 32 2 of 2 3 of 3 20 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Sergei Pavlovich 30 of 62 48% 16 of 48 6 of 6 8 of 8 30 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
Waldo Cortes Acosta 14 of 46 30% 7 of 36 1 of 4 6 of 6 14 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Sergei Pavlovich vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta

Round 1
Next up is the lone heavyweight bout of the evening—despite Brian Ortega’s best efforts—as Cortes-Acosta will look to build on his five-fight win streak and certify himself a legitimate title contender. Opposite the surging “Salsa Boy” will be Pavlovich, who seeks to reaffirm his own contender status after righting the ship against Jairzinho Rozenstruik back in February. Tasked with keeping things nice and clean will be referee Marc Goddard. Both big men are in orthodox stance, and both send out tentative jabs in the opening moments. They end up doing some lead-hand jousting as neither seems to want to be the first to go. Pavlovich is calmly maneuvering Cortes-Acosta into the cage. He comes off the fence swinging and there is an inadvertent clash of heads, but both men keep on fighting. They meet near the center of the cage and exchange a flurry of punches, with both men landing cleanly. Cortes-Acosta, far from being backed off by the Russian’s vaunted power, seems emboldened, stepping into the pocket and unloading. He lands several solid punches and takes a big one from Pavlovich in return. Cortes-Acosta lands a hard leg kick and gets countered hard with a right hand over the top. A minute left in the round and both fighters have taken some serious fire but neither is backing down. Cortes-Acosta surges forward and eats a right uppercut. The horn sounds.
10-9 Pavlovich.

Round 2
Cortes-Acosta and Pavlovich pick up right where they left off, and Pavlovich catches his man with another sneaky uppercut as he exits the pocket. Cortes-Acosta lands a good jab, and Pavlovich flicks out a front kick up the middle. Cortes-Acosta wades into range with a pair of haymakers, which Pavlovich slips. Pavlovich lands a big left-right combo that hurts the Panamanian. Cortes-Acosta stumbles back into the fence but recovers quickly, and they go back to work. Cortes-Acosta scores with a hard calf kick, and Pavlovich is showing the damage from that one and the several he took in Round 1. Pavlovich cuts off the cage nicely, walks Cortes-Acosta to the warning track and nails him with two hard punches. Cortes-Acosta takes a kick to the midsection, gestures at his cup and appears to want the foul called, but Goddard tells them it was on the belt and to keep fighting. Pavlovich is gradually taking over this fight on the feet, as he is starting to find Cortes-Acosta’s head with his jab and cross over and over again.
10-9 Pavlovich.

Round 3
The final frame opens up, as the first two did, with the heavyweight contenders measuring each other for big right hands in the pocket. Cortes-Acosta lands another hard leg kick and Pavlovich responds with one of his own. Pavlovich cracks Cortes-Acosta with a huge right hand that staggers him, but he recovers in a flash and makes the universal “that didn’t hurt” hand sign. Pavlovich calmly steps forward and appears to have taken his foe’s measure. Cortes-Acosta is reaching and lunging to land his punches, while Pavlovich is composed, squarely over his feet and catching him with clean counters. He is outclassing Cortes-Acosta at this point, and short of some heavyweight weirdness, the main question remaining is whether he will score the knockout. Pavlovich tags Cortes-Acosta with a pair of huge hooks that make him stumble, but doesn’t press the issue. Cortes-Acosta rebounds from the fence, wades back in and gets clocked again. Cortes-Acosta hears the 10-second clapper and gestures at the floor, but Pavlovich is not particularly interested in being on the wrong side of any last-second heroics. The final horn sounds on a quietly dominant performance by the Russian.
10-9 Pavlovich (30-27 Pavlovich).

The Official Result
Sergei Pavlovich def. Waldo Cortes-Acosta via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Angelo is confident in Waldo Cortes Acosta as a dog, calling him more well-rounded, athletic, and durable. He notes that Pavlovich is one-dimensional as a boxer and that Waldo can shoot takedowns and has a giant chin. He has a moneyline bet on Waldo at +225, which he thinks is crazy. He references Waldo's toughness and evolution as a fighter.

Has a moneyline bet on Waldo at +225.
"I have a moneyline bet on him. Plus 225 seems absolutely crazy to me. Waldo's gonna be the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Sergei Pavlovich

Big Brady picks Sergei Pavlovich to win, but with hesitation due to Pavlovich's recent lack of killer instinct since being knocked out by Aspinall. He notes that Pavlovich has been hesitant in recent fights, but if the old Pavlovich shows up, he will knock out Cortes Acosta in the first round. He is worried Pavlovich might stick at range or wrestle, making the fight harder.

Pavlovich by first round knockout if he comes forward
"I'm gonna go Pavlovich here, but I'm not sure I'm that confident."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Sergei Pavlovich

Connor is confident Pavlovich should win, as he is the first elite-level heavyweight Cortes Acosta has faced. He notes that Pavlovich has better punching mechanics, more power, and a significant reach advantage (84 inches vs 78). However, he worries that Pavlovich might get deer-in-the-headlights against Cortes Acosta's size and durability, leading to a staring contest. Connor also mentions that Pavlovich looked good in his last fight, showing improved wrestling and striking choices.

Odds: Pavlovich opened -350, now -227; Cortes Acosta opened +285, now +192. Connor is surprised Cortes Acosta is getting underdog takers.
"Pavlovich is big enough and strong enough and powerful enough in the way speevok isn't to just get takedowns by merely being there."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Sergei Pavlovich

The host initially thought he would like the plus money on Cortes Acosta, but after seeing the confidence and discipline from Pavlovich in his last fight, he thinks Pavlovich can shut down the jab of Cortes Acosta and land big shots leading to knockdowns, knockouts, or takedowns. He expects Pavlovich to be in the driver's seat and win on the scorecards.

odds comment: initially liked plus money on Cortes Acosta
"Going into this, I thought I would love the plus money on Cortez Acasta, but seeing the confidence and discipline from Pavlovich from his last fight, I think he can bring that here against Cortez Aosta, shut down the jab …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Sergei Pavlovich

The MMA Guru picks Sergei Pavlovich to win by first-round KO. He highlights Pavlovich's 14-inch reach advantage and believes he is more athletic, faster, and more powerful than Cortes Acosta. He criticizes Cortes Acosta's close decisions against unranked opponents and notes that Pavlovich has finished similar fighters quickly. He also mentions that Pavlovich can use grappling and low kicks if needed.

Sergei Pavlovich by first round KO; under 70.5 significant strikes combined (PrizePicks)
"I'm going to go with Sergey Pavlovich to win this fight by KO... Nasty KO win first round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Sergei Pavlovich

Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Cortes Acosta's style is a neutralizer that relies on not doing anything stupid, but Pavlovich's power and athleticism should overwhelm him. He points out that Pavlovich's wins often come from opponents freaking out, but he still has the tools to win. Zane is hopeful Pavlovich can make the fight entertaining.

"Hopefully pavlovich can make this fight as entertaining as we would like."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · Jun 07, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Serghei Spivac 0 48 of 119 40% 53 of 124 2 of 6 33% 0 0 2:25
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 110 of 235 46% 111 of 236 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Serghei Spivac 0 14 of 36 38% 17 of 39 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:36
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 27 of 59 45% 28 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Serghei Spivac 0 18 of 42 42% 18 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 36 of 77 46% 36 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Serghei Spivac 0 16 of 41 39% 18 of 43 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:34
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 47 of 99 47% 47 of 99 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Serghei Spivac 48 of 119 40% 39 of 109 4 of 5 5 of 5 45 of 115 3 of 4 0 of 0
Waldo Cortes Acosta 110 of 235 46% 76 of 196 16 of 20 18 of 19 105 of 225 5 of 10 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Serghei Spivac 14 of 36 38% 11 of 33 1 of 1 2 of 2 14 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Waldo Cortes Acosta 27 of 59 45% 12 of 41 8 of 11 7 of 7 26 of 58 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Serghei Spivac 18 of 42 42% 12 of 35 3 of 4 3 of 3 17 of 40 1 of 2 0 of 0
Waldo Cortes Acosta 36 of 77 46% 21 of 62 7 of 7 8 of 8 33 of 72 3 of 5 0 of 0
3 Serghei Spivac 16 of 41 39% 16 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0 14 of 39 2 of 2 0 of 0
Waldo Cortes Acosta 47 of 99 47% 43 of 93 1 of 2 3 of 4 46 of 95 1 of 4 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Serghei Spivac
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Spivac (-148), Cortes-Acosta (+124)

Round 1
Mike Beltran is once again the referee. Spivac opens the round with a strong jab and then misses an overhand right. Cortes-Acosta eats a right hand and then a head kick. Spivac is very aggressive early. Nice leg kick lands for Spivac. Cortes-Acosta throws a left hook, but it comes up very short. Spivac catches a low kick and clinches with Cortes-Acosta. Spivac goes to the body with left hands. Cortes-Acosta is trying to circle out but can't free himself of the clinch. They finally break. Cortes-Acosta resets after eating a jab and then lands a big right hand. Spivac is walking down Cortes-Acosta and keeping him against the cage. The two heavyweights trade jabs. Cortes-Acosta throws a front kick up the middle and then a leg kick. Spivac ends the round defending well as Cortes-Acosta gets more aggressive.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Spivac
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Spivac
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Spivac

Round 2
Spivac once again takes the center of the cage. A big overhand right connects for Cortes-Acosta, who then throws hard to the body. Despite losing the first round, Cortes-Acosta is finding his confidence inside the cage. Spivac is much less active this round. Spivac's jabs are landing. The two trade hooks, with Spivac landing. Hard leg kicks from Cortes-Acosta, who has the more varied attack. Spivac clinches but can't keep him there. Cortes-Acosta's shorts just ripped, but it isn't impacting the action. Cortes-Acosta lands another leg kick, but that allows Spivac to charge forward with a takedown attempt. Cortes-Acosta stays on his feet and then lands a 1-2. Spivac answers back with a high kick that doesn't quite land. Cortes-Acosta is jabbing and going to the body with his punches. Spivac looks to be slowing down as he's unable to match the volume of punches of Cortes-Acosta. 30 seconds left. The two trade jabs. A nice jab to the body by Cortes-Acosta. The round ends with Cortes-Acosta landing a hook to the body.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta

Round 3
Cortes-Acosta gets a new pair of shorts on between rounds, so that crisis is averted. Cortes-Acosta is working his jab well. A huge overhand right hand lands for Spivac. Cortes-Acosta pretends to be totally dazed by the punch, which glances off the side of his head, but Spivac doesn't bite. Cortes-Acosta tries to catch Spivac but eats a big elbow instead. Spivac has the momentum with three minutes left. A nice step-in knee for Cortes-Acosta. Spivac misses with a high kick and then looks to clinch. Cortes-Acosta slips out and answers with a 1-2 combination. Two minutes left. Spivac throws a big right hand, but he's being peppered away at by Cortes-Acosta. Cortes-Acosta is showing some fatigue, as he isn't throwing back after slipping punches like he was earlier. Spivac goes for another takedown and picks up Cortes-Acosta. However, Cortes-Acosta gets back to his feet before Spivac can take advantage of the situation. Spivac is eating jabs while whiffing overhand rights. A big straight right lands for Spivac right before the round expires, but it might be too little, too late.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Spivac (29-28 Spivac)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Spivac (29-28 Spivac)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Spivac (29-28 Spivac)

The Official Result
Waldo Cortes-Acosta def. Serghei Spivac via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Angelo picks Waldo Cortes Acosta as an underdog, citing his athleticism, speed, power, and improvements since his loss to Del Lima. He thinks Spivac is unathletic and lumbering, and Waldo's foot movement and power will be too much. He bet half a unit on Waldo because he likes betting dogs at that stake.

Bet half a unit on Waldo as a dog.
"I threw a half a unit on him as a bet cuz when I bet dogs, I only do a half a unit instead of a full."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 3, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Big Brady picks Spivac but is hesitant due to his inconsistency. He notes that when Spivac is on, he ragdolls opponents, but when he faces adversity, he folds. He thinks Spivac should be able to take down Cortes Acosta, who has been taken down by lesser wrestlers, and that Spivac can finish by submission or TKO. He predicts a second-round submission but says he probably won't bet it because of the risk.

Spivac by submission in round 2
"I'm going to take Spac, but my concern and and why I probably won't be betting him here is because there is a chance he shows up and it looks like he doesn't want to be there and he gets …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Spivac is expected to deal with Acosta's striking, take the fight to the ground, and keep Acosta on his back until a submission opportunity opens. The pick is for Spivac to win by submission.

win by submission
"I fully expect Spac to deal with Aosta's striking, eventually take this fight to the ground, keeping Cortez Aosta on his back until that submission opportunity opens itself, giving Spac the win by submission."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

The MMA Guru picks Serghei Spivac, believing his grappling will be the edge. He notes Spivac had moments against Jailton Almeida and submitted Marcin Tybura. He worries about Spivac's striking but thinks he can take Waldo down and finish by submission or TKO in the first two rounds. He acknowledges Waldo could win again but trusts Spivac's grappling.

Finish prediction: first round submission or second round TKO. Fight not going past two rounds.
"I'm going to go Sergey Spivac. I'm going to say that Sergey Spivac is going to get his grappling off here and be able to submit Waldo Cortez A Costa."
WIN vs Ryan Spann
KO R2 4:48 · UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · Mar 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Waldo Cortes Acosta 1 66 of 111 59% 77 of 123 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:57
Ryan Spann 0 23 of 86 26% 24 of 87 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 27 of 49 55% 31 of 53 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:49
Ryan Spann 0 12 of 33 36% 13 of 34 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:05
2 Waldo Cortes Acosta 1 39 of 62 62% 46 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Ryan Spann 0 11 of 53 20% 11 of 53 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Waldo Cortes Acosta 66 of 111 59% 56 of 97 4 of 6 6 of 8 59 of 100 1 of 2 6 of 9
Ryan Spann 23 of 86 26% 11 of 70 5 of 9 7 of 7 22 of 85 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Waldo Cortes Acosta 27 of 49 55% 21 of 40 1 of 3 5 of 6 25 of 45 1 of 2 1 of 2
Ryan Spann 12 of 33 36% 5 of 23 2 of 5 5 of 5 11 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Waldo Cortes Acosta 39 of 62 62% 35 of 57 3 of 3 1 of 2 34 of 55 0 of 0 5 of 7
Ryan Spann 11 of 53 20% 6 of 47 3 of 4 2 of 2 11 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Ryan Spann
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Cortes-Acosta (-166), Spann (+140)

Round 1
The preliminaries conclude with a heavyweight match that could provide a new contender when the dust settles. Cortes-Acosta (12-1, 5-1 UFC) has won five of six as a full-framed heavyweight, and his opponent Spann (22-10, 8-5 UFC) is introducing himself to the weight class by no longer cutting weight. The ex-205er weighed 249 pounds, so he will be adequately sized as he also stands an inch taller. Referee Mark Smith will be minding his P’s and Q’s as the big men throw down, and he stands by as they clap hands first. Spann strikes first with a heavy leg kick, and Smith tells the heavyweights to watch their extended fingers. Cortes-Acosta responds with his own low kick, but Spann’s has much more behind it. Cortes-Acosta whiffs on a left hook, and a big overhand right of his bangs into Spann’s raised guard. Spann kicks high and is blocked, and he kicks low but is not. Cortes-Acosta wades in with winging punches, and Spann is well out of harm’s way in time. Spann hammers the front leg with a kick, and he counters one coming his way with a thudding overhand right that stuns the man from Dominican Republic. Cortes-Acosta leans forward and the two clash heads, and Smith calls time to make sure no damage resulted from it. He resumes them, and the fighters trade punches. Cortes-Acosta catches Spann on the temple with a blistering right hand, and he uses his weight to drag Spann to the fence. Spann breaks free and plunks Cortes-Acosta with an overhand right, but Cortes-Acosta’s uppercut shakes him up again. Both men swing their fists from down beneath their hips, getting full torque into it. They both lash out with low kicks, and Cortes-Acosta checks it and draws a funny reaction from his opponent. Spann comes up short with a front kick, and Cortes-Acosta chews up his front leg with another kick. Spann goes to the body with his front kick, and Cortes-Acosta winds up with bad intentions looping his haymakers at the former light heavyweight. They clinch up, and Cortes-Acosta drives punches into Spann until Spann breaks away and launches some of his own. Spann gets off a low kick and slips out of the way from “Salsa Boy,” and Cortes-Acosta measures his man with a jab and a right hand that hurts Spann again. Cortes-Acosta’s forward momentum results in a tie-up, using his higher weight to toss Spann to his back. Spann tries to upkick him in the legs a few times until the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta

Round 2
The fighters lead off with a brief glove touch, and Spann is quick to fight behind his jab. Cortes-Acosta snaps his head back with a straight right hand, and he is met with a front kick to the belly. Cortes-Acosta jabs his man in the belly, but the fist goes low and bangs into Spann’s cup. Smith calls time, and Spann drops to his knees and takes a little under a minute to recover. They resume, and Cortes-Acosta flashes out his jab as Spann does the same. Cortes-Acosta scores a left and a right, and Spann indicates he was poked in the eye. Smith again pauses the action and checks the replay, and they get back to it after a few seconds. Spann jams the body with a kick, and he wings a huge right hand that Cortes-Acosta rolls with. Spann whiffs on another, and a third is met with a sharp jab from his foe. Spann is irritated about getting poked in the eye, and Smith issues a loud warning to Cortes-Acosta. Spann overthrows his punches, and the Dominican is beating him to the punch and clips the Fortis MMA fighter with his overhand right. Cortes-Acosta kicks the inner thigh, and the strike pounds square into his cup. Smith sighs heavily and calls time one more time. Spann crouches down and is not a happy camper after receiving these fouls, and Smith issues a final warning to Cortes-Acosta to keep things clean. The Texan takes more time than before to get his wind back, with Cortes-Acosta getting away with multiple fouls without a point deduction. The fighters get back to business after another 90-second break, and Spann returns to fighting behind his jab. Spann rifles off a calf kick, and Cortes-Acosta lands a powerful right hand across the forward bow. “Superman” dodges a check left hook but is unable to get away from the jab, and Cortes-Acosta loads up on his overhand right and sways the right direction to avoid one coming his direction. Cortes-Acosta prods with a jab until Spann bears down on him, and he uses the jab again to keep Spann honest. A one-two from Spann does not find its target, and he dances away from a similar pair of blows. Cortes-Acosta’s head movement and footwork keeps him safe, and he clubs Spann in the side of the dome. Spann spins with a back kick, and he shoots for a double that is met with 262 pounds of meat and several punches on the side of the head. Spann explodes back to his feet, and Cortes-Acosta is on him clubbing him with fists.
Spann swings back, still in trouble, and Cortes-Acosta sticks him with a jab and follows with a short left hook that levels Spann. When “Superman” hits the ground, Smith is already racing in towards the fighters, only to allow a few more punctuating hammerfists and punches to briefly shut Spann’s lights out.
Smith gets between them and allows Cortes-Acosta to reposition his foe’s legs who are tangled up with his, and Cortes-Acosta walks off to celebrate his handiwork. The ranked heavyweight calls for fights against either Tai Tuivasa or Derrick Lewis, and both are within his reach given his success in the division thus far.

The Official Result
Waldo Cortes-Acosta def. Ryan Spann R2 4:48 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Angelo picks Waldo Cortes Acosta over Ryan Spann. He believes Waldo is faster, has better movement, and cardio, while Spann's last win was his first in three years against an older opponent. He notes that public money might come in on Spann, making Waldo even better value.

"Waldo's the pick and that's not just because we were both in the movie the burden of Nine Lives."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Big Brady picks Waldo Cortes Acosta, reasoning that Ryan Spann is a round-one-or-bust fighter who fades after the first five minutes. He notes Spann's last win outside the first round was a split decision in 2020. Brady believes Cortes Acosta has good durability and cardio, and if he survives the first round, he will take over in the later rounds with higher output. He predicts a decision win for Cortes Acosta.

Cortes Acosta by decision
"give me Waldo Cortez aosta by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)

Cody picks Julius Walker, noting that the UFC is giving him a bounce-back fight after a competitive debut against Alonzo Menifield. He believes Raphael Cerqueira is a low-level opponent with poor durability and that Walker will win easily. He acknowledges the high price but sees it as a safe play.

"I feel like Julius really puts it on him. And the UFC understands fully. We've seen guys like Martin Budai six and one in the UFC cut. We've seen guys, you know, talented prospects, maybe like a TJ Laramie, he …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Jan 31, 2024 (409 days before fight)

Daniel does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses the matchup briefly but does not state a preference or bet.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

The host believes Cortes Acosta's takedown defense will keep the fight standing, allowing him to run away with the matchup in deep water and win on the scorecards.

"I believe Cortez a Costa's ability to keep span at Bay utilizing some decent enough takedown defense keeping this fight in the stand up realm and I think that will see Cortez aosta start to run away with this matchup …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)

Paul also picks Walker, citing his athleticism and the favorable matchup. He notes that Cerqueira has a padded record and has been knocked out quickly. He believes Walker will roll and sees value in the win, despite the high price.

"Walker for me. You"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Ryan Spann

The MMA Guru picks Ryan Spann, believing in light heavyweights succeeding at heavyweight. He notes Spann has touch-of-death power and dangerous grappling, though he has bad IQ moments. He criticizes Waldo Cortes Acosta as a 'fat heavyweight' who nearly got fraud-checked by Jared Vanderaa and has poor takedown entries. He thinks Spann's experience against better competition gives him the edge, and he expects a knockout.

"I'm gonna go Ryan span I'm GNA go with Ryan span over wildo Cortez a Costa I believe in light heavyweights succeeding at heavyweight"
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Nascimento · May 11, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 52 of 101 51% 130 of 204 3 of 4 75% 1 0 9:49
Robelis Despaigne 0 26 of 52 50% 28 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 6 of 10 60% 34 of 49 1 of 1 100% 1 0 4:32
Robelis Despaigne 0 2 of 7 28% 4 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 25 of 54 46% 42 of 76 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:44
Robelis Despaigne 0 13 of 28 46% 13 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
3 Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 21 of 37 56% 54 of 79 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:33
Robelis Despaigne 0 11 of 17 64% 11 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Waldo Cortes Acosta 52 of 101 51% 44 of 92 0 of 0 8 of 9 15 of 24 0 of 1 37 of 76
Robelis Despaigne 26 of 52 50% 11 of 36 2 of 3 13 of 13 26 of 51 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Waldo Cortes Acosta 6 of 10 60% 5 of 9 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 6
Robelis Despaigne 2 of 7 28% 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Waldo Cortes Acosta 25 of 54 46% 22 of 51 0 of 0 3 of 3 8 of 12 0 of 1 17 of 41
Robelis Despaigne 13 of 28 46% 7 of 21 2 of 3 4 of 4 13 of 27 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Waldo Cortes Acosta 21 of 37 56% 17 of 32 0 of 0 4 of 5 5 of 8 0 of 0 16 of 29
Robelis Despaigne 11 of 17 64% 2 of 8 0 of 0 9 of 9 11 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Robelis Despaigne
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Despaigne (-192), Cortes-Acosta (+160)

Round 1
A heavyweight appetizer kicks off the main card before the main course between big men. Fastball-throwing Dominican Cortes-Acosta (11-1, 4-1 UFC) will ply his trade against skyscraping power puncher Despaigne (5-0, 1-0 UFC) in a pairing that may not go more than a minute or two. Referee Josh Stewart knows that danger is looming, but he is prepped and ready for what’s about to befall these two fighters. The large fists are not bumped before they get down to business. Despaigne keeps his hands low, and he walks through a leg kick and smashes Cortes-Acosta in the face with a left hand. Despaigne connects with a few more thunderous punches, and Cortes-Acosta answers his offense by shooting in and securing an easy takedown. Cortes-Acosta lands in half guard, where he holds down the taekwondo star and takes a few elbows on the side of the head. Cortes-Acosta is unable to maintain chest-to-chest pressure, but his sitting on the left leg of his foe prevents “The Bad Boy” from going anywhere. Cortes-Acosta starts softening up the body, and Despaigne flails off his back. Cortes-Acosta wrenches on Despaigne’s right arm to set up a keylock, and he begins to torque it on his second effort. Despaigne wriggles his arm free, turning to his side to prevent from being stuck flat on his back. This position allows him to also defend from the few strikes that come at him. Cortes-Acosta grinds his elbow on him and tries to present a forearm choke, but there is nothing to it. Cortes-Acosta rides out the round on top, dragging Despaigne to uncharted territory.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta

Round 2
Despaigne starts the round off with a long front kick, and he backs Cortes-Acosta off with long punches. Despaigne kicks low twice, and Cortes-Acosta responds with one of his own. Despaigne lunges forward with a single punch, and he gets caught backing off with a couple of long strikes from the former baseball player. The two trade leg kicks, and Despaigne unloads a head kick that gets blocked and fires one from the other side as well. Cortes-Acosta shoots for a takedown, and this time, the 6-foot-7 fighter stonewalls him. Despaigne breaks free, and the two big men start trading. Cortes-Acosta lands with heavy hands, and he pushes Despaigne back. Despaigne plods forward and whiffs on an overhand right, and the two are sucking wind two minutes into the second round. Despaigne kicks the ribcage, and wings two punches, and Cortes-Acosta signals to him that he has no sting on his punches. Cortes-Acosta nails his man with an uppercut, and Despaigne decides to tie them up. Cortes-Acosta uses the position to secure a body lock and toss Despaigne to the mat, and he climbs directly into full mount. Cortes-Acosta works the body a few times and lands some to the head, and he postures up and starts battering Despaigne with heavy fists. Despaigne twists and turns, only for Cortes-Acosta to sit heavily on top of his abdomen. Cortes-Acosta slams down a couple elbows and opens up with hammerfists and punches, but they are more for dramatic effect than actual stopping power. Cortes-Acosta drives home a few body shots and then goes to the head with punches until the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta

Round 3
The heavyweights have unexpectedly reached the third round, and their energy reserves are running low. Cortes-Acosta tosses out a half-hearted low kick, and he misses with another as Despaigne loads up on two of his own. Despaigne sticks out a jab that dislodges the mouthpiece of his opponent, and he reaches with a second. Cortes-Acosta checks a kick and mocks his undefeated adversary, and he easily blocks a jumping switch kick. Despaigne kicks his lead leg a few times, and Cortes-Acosta shrugs at him. Cortes-Acosta gives him one low kick back, and he surges into action with a right hook. Cortes-Acosta slaps a low kick on the front leg, and Despaigne counters him with a front kick that snaps the head back. As the crowd gasps, Cortes-Acosta waves in the air to signal he is fine. Despaigne’s mouth is wide open as his hands are down by his waist, and he walks forward without concern. Cortes-Acosta ties him up and turns him around to push him to the fence, and he scoops the taller man up and deposits him gingerly to the floor. Cortes-Acosta shifts to side control before deciding to move himself back to half guard for control purposes, and he smacks Despaigne a few times and starts talking to someone outside of the cage. Cortes-Acosta bops Despaigne with feeble hammerfists and some light punches, more to stay busy than try to conclude the pairing. Cortes-Acosta is shouting at Despaigne, who is totally defeated and has nothing left to offer. Cortes-Acosta sits up and rains down punches, and Despaigne turns all the way over to grab one leg and defend his mug from ground strikes. Cortes-Acosta keeps hold of Despaigne’s right arm and slams him in the face with his own right until the horrible heavyweight match concludes. Barring something horrendous, Despaigne will be leaving the ranks of the unbeaten, and any confidence of him going far at heavyweight has been shattered to pieces.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (30-27 Cortes-Acosta)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (30-27 Cortes-Acosta)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (30-27 Cortes-Acosta)

The Official Result
Waldo Cortes-Acosta def. Robelis Despaigne via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 5, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Robelis Despaigne

Angelo picks Robelis Despaigne due to his Olympic taekwondo background, size (6'7"), and insane power. He notes Despaigne's last four fights totaled 37 seconds, but admits there is no data on his chin or cardio. He acknowledges Waldo Cortes Acosta's toughness and durability but believes Despaigne's physical advantages are too much.

"I got to go rob Bellis he's athletic he's tremendous he hits insanely hard"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 8, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Robelis Despaigne

Big Brady picks Robelis Despaigne to knock out Waldo Cortes Acosta in the first round, likely in the first minute. He is impressed by Despaigne's size (6'7", 87" reach) and his 'death touch,' having knocked out opponents in seconds. He notes that Acosta is not a wrestler, so Despaigne won't have to worry about takedowns. He believes Despaigne is the real deal and passes this step-up in competition.

PrizePicks play: less than 4.75 minutes fight time
"I think rebellis hits Waldo Cortez a Costa so hard that he starts doing the salsa dance and eventually puts him out probably in in the first minute"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Robelis Despaigne

Cody picks Despaigne but is leaning, not confident. He notes that Despaigne has never been out of the first round and has massive power and reach. However, he is concerned about Despaigne's lack of grappling and cardio. Cody prefers the under 1.5 rounds prop, which he parlayed with other unders, as it covers both a Despaigne KO or a potential submission loss. He is not willing to bet Despaigne's moneyline due to the unknowns.

Under 1.5 rounds (-200) parlayed with other unders
"I feel like the under one and a half is probably robis is uh his money line is pretty much in tow with that like he either knocks Waldo out or he gets exposed in this spot"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 9, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Robelis Despaigne

Daniel Vreeland picks Robelis Despaigne, calling himself on the Despaigne hype train. He notes Despaigne's incredible reach (longest in UFC history), Olympic taekwondo background, and brutal knockouts. He acknowledges that Despaigne hasn't proven it against top competition but believes he will knock out Cortes-Acosta, who has been knocked out in a boxing match before.

by KO
"I'm on the Despaigne hype train now and again what does that truly mean I don't know what the ceiling is yet but I know that there's going to be a lot of brutal Knockouts along the way."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Robelis Despaigne

The host expects Despaigne to win by first-round knockout, citing his massive size, speed, and power advantage. He notes Cortes Acosta has never been KO'd in MMA but has been knocked out in boxing, and believes Despaigne's style will overwhelm him. He prefers the round 1 KO prop at even money rather than the moneyline at -200. The pick is confident for the finish, though he acknowledges Despaigne's one-dimensional style.

Round 1 KO prop at even money is the better play
"I think that this will be a bad match up for him as rebellis goes out there and finds The Knockout in the first round."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Paul picks Cortes Acosta as a confident underdog. He argues that Despaigne is a mystery with no proven grappling or cardio, while Cortes Acosta has multiple paths to victory: volume, cardio, takedowns, and durability. Paul notes that Cortes Acosta has never been knocked out in MMA and has fought tough competition. He believes Despaigne's lack of experience and training at a small gym will be exposed. Paul sees value at plus money and is willing to fade the hype.

"give me the plus money on Waldo aosta Cortez"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Robelis Despaigne

The MMA Guru picks Robelis Despaigne over Waldo Cortes Acosta, noting that Cortes Acosta nearly lost to Jared Vanderaa and has questionable wins. He believes Despaigne's reach and kicking background will be key, and that he can chew up Cortes Acosta's legs. He predicts a TKO win, though he acknowledges the odds are closer than expected.

TKO
"I'm going rebellious to Spain... I think he'll win this fight by TKO."
Ryan Spann - Fight History
KO R2 2:10 · UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · Apr 25, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marcus Buchecha 0 8 of 13 61% 8 of 13 1 of 7 14% 1 0 1:09
Ryan Spann 1 15 of 27 55% 20 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marcus Buchecha 0 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 1 of 6 16% 1 0 1:05
Ryan Spann 0 10 of 18 55% 15 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:29
2 Marcus Buchecha 0 4 of 7 57% 4 of 7 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Ryan Spann 1 5 of 9 55% 5 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marcus Buchecha 8 of 13 61% 4 of 8 1 of 1 3 of 4 7 of 12 0 of 0 1 of 1
Ryan Spann 15 of 27 55% 11 of 22 3 of 4 1 of 1 8 of 17 0 of 0 7 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marcus Buchecha 4 of 6 66% 1 of 3 1 of 1 2 of 2 3 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1
Ryan Spann 10 of 18 55% 7 of 14 3 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 8 0 of 0 7 of 10
2 Marcus Buchecha 4 of 7 57% 3 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 2 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ryan Spann 5 of 9 55% 4 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1 5 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Marcus Almeida vs. Ryan Spann
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Almeida (-150); Spann (+125)

Round 1
From one all-time great grappler in Vieira to another in “Buchecha” Almeida (5-2-1, 0-1-1 UFC) we go. The big man from Brazil is still seeking his first UFC victory, and he will be given the opportunity to do so at the expense of massive ex-light heavyweight Spann (23-11, 9-6 UFC). The Texan once weighed 205 pounds, and he bulked up to a sleek, svelte 264 pounds for this one, or about 11 pounds higher than the established heavyweight he is battling now. To maintain control of the big fellas, referee Herb Dean may need maximum effort. Gloves are touched before they are traded.
Almeida slams a low kick home, which lands with a resounding thud. Spann bounces back and forth to swing a one-two, and Almeida pushes off his face as a finger scrapes Spann’s eye. Spann signals to Dean that he was fouled, and Dean tells him to fight on. From across the cage, Almeida sprints at Spann to take the fight down, and Spann counters with a brief guillotine choke before letting it go to scramble. With Almeida not quite taking the fight down, Spann hovers over him bludgeoning him with his fists. Almeida fights out of the worst of it and turns to his knees to power back to his feet, and he immediately searches for a level change. Almeida wrenches his foe to the floor, and Spann’s attempted guillotine falls apart seconds after he tries for it. Almeida threatens with an arm-triangle choke, and Spann pulls out of it and rips himself back up to his feet. Spann runs towards the cage to escape, not knowing if Almeida is hot on his heels, and he bounces off of it and takes a deep breath. Spann re-engages, and he pushes on the back of Almeida’s neck when Almeida pursues a takedown.
Spann drills his foe with an uppercut and controls Almeida to push him to his back for a moment, and when Almeida turns to his knees, Spann lets him flip over so he can knee him in the ribs. Spann backs away, and Almeida slowly lumbers his way back to his feet. Spann offers up a front kick on the jaw, and “Buchecha” drills his front leg with a kick that makes Spann take a very funny step. Almeida goes for a one-two to set up a double, and when Spann shoves him to the mat, the American turns to escape a sudden heel hook that came out of nowhere. Almeida scrambles to hunt for a takedown, and Spann uses a guillotine to threaten just long enough to bulldoze Almeida over. With Almeida on his knees, Spann connects with a strong knee to the side. Almeida pushes him off, and Spann stands up and just waits until the oddball round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Spann
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Spann
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Spann

Round 2
A glove touch kicks off the round, both men breathing a big hard after a frenetic five-round stretch. Almeida pushes out with his fingers outstretched, and Spann complains about a poke as Dean calls time and issues a very hard warning to “Buchecha.” They resume shortly thereafter, with Spann standing in the pocket ready to throw hands. Before he can, Almeida once more leads with his fingers out, and Dean shows him how to close his fist. Almeida swings after the break, aiming for a takedown after it. Spann is wise to it and uses his guillotine to not threaten the actual submission but control the posture well enough to force Almeida to think about another angle. Almeida turns his way out of it and works his way back to his feet, as Spann does not want to chill out in the guard. On his feet again, Almeida prods out a solid jab.
Spann works around the jab, swinging all his might behind a left hook and a follow-up straight right hand that smash about as cleanly on the jaw as one can. Almeida crumples to this back, eyes staring off into space and not remotely ready to defend anything else as he is all done.
Dean rushes between them to make sure Spann is not about to batter his doomed opponent further. Spann knows his work here is done and proceeds to dance around the cage, as he has now become the first fighter in MMA to finish “Buchecha.”

The Official Result
Ryan Spann def. Marcus Almeida R2 2:10 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 19, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Angelo picks Ryan Spann confidently, calling him the much better striker with better cage awareness and killer instinct. He notes that Marcus Buchecha needs to get the fight to the ground or pray that Spann fades, but Spann has power and takedown defense that should hold up. He dismisses Buchecha's UFC performances as unconvincing.

"Ryan Span is going to be the pick because of the power and hopefully the takedown defense holds up."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 21, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Marcus Buchecha

Big Brady picks Marcus Buchecha over Ryan Spann. He questions Spann's fight IQ and training habits, noting Spann is a light heavyweight moving up. He believes Buchecha's size and grappling will be too much, predicting a first-round submission as long as Buchecha fights smart.

Buchecha wins by first round submission
"Give me Buchecha by first round submission."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Hesitant picked Apr 25, 2026 (fight day)
Ryan Spann

The host is tempted to bet Spann as a slight underdog because Buchecha has terrible cardio and poor striking defense, while Spann has knockout power and better cardio. However, Spann has bad fight IQ, making it risky. He notes Buchecha is awful and he has made money betting against him before. He says if Spann wins, it will likely be inside the distance, so the moneyline is better than the fight spread.

If Spann wins, likely inside distance; over/under too risky; prefers moneyline over fight spread
"Spann's a very tempting bet as a slight underdog, and I may bet him this weekend, but obviously whenever you bet Ryan Spann, you are taking a big risk."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 19, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Marcus Buchecha

James picks Buchecha, citing Spann's poor cardio and tendency to fade after round one. He believes Buchecha's durability, submission defense, and will to win will allow him to survive early danger and take over in later rounds.

"I'm picking Marcus Betcha for that reason. ... I am confident on Betcha."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Apr 21, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Marcus Buchecha

Buchecha is a BJJ legend but has struggled to get takedowns and has poor striking. Spann has knockout power and a sneaky guillotine, but he has mental lapses and often gets finished early. Buchecha should be able to get Spann to the ground and submit him early, but the -145 price is not great value.

fight finishes under 7.5 minutes
"I'm expecting an early finish here. No matter who ends up getting their hand raised, I think it's going to be Buches who's going to get Span to the ground. And I think from there he'll be able to get …"
Submission R1 2:47 · UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · Jul 19, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ryan Spann 0 8 of 19 42% 8 of 19 1 of 1 100% 2 0 2:14
Łukasz Brzeski 0 5 of 8 62% 23 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ryan Spann 0 8 of 19 42% 8 of 19 1 of 1 100% 2 0 2:14
Łukasz Brzeski 0 5 of 8 62% 23 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ryan Spann 8 of 19 42% 8 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 10 0 of 0 6 of 9
Łukasz Brzeski 5 of 8 62% 1 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 4 5 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ryan Spann 8 of 19 42% 8 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 10 0 of 0 6 of 9
Łukasz Brzeski 5 of 8 62% 1 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 4 5 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Angelo picks Ryan Spann to win, noting his power, submissions, and wrestling. He compares Brzeski to Austin Lane as a finishable opponent. However, he expresses concern about Spann's heavyweight debut where he looked out of shape and not serious, making the -225 price a bit tricky.

"Ryan Span should win this fight. Ryan Span is going to be the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 15, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Big Brady picks Ryan Spann but expresses concern about Spann's inconsistency and motivation. He notes Spann looked terrible at heavyweight and hasn't posted training content. However, he believes Brzeski is not UFC caliber and Spann should win by first-round knockout if he shows up.

Spann by first round knockout
"I have to take Ryan Span. There's no way I'm ever picking Lucas Presky to win a UFC fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

The host thinks Spann will get his first heavyweight win but expects Brzeski to make it more difficult than the odds indicate. He predicts Spann finds the finish inside the distance, but the hesitation suggests some doubt about the ease of victory.

finish inside the distance
"I think Span ends up finding the finish inside the distance."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Łukasz Brzeski

The MMA Guru picks Łukasz Brzeski over Ryan Spann, citing Spann's low fight IQ and poor performance against Anthony Smith. He notes that Brzeski has experience in the cage and went to a decision with Volkan Oezdemir, which is respectable. The Guru also mentions that Brzeski is likely taller than Spann despite the listed height difference. He cannot trust Spann after his last performance and believes Brzeski will win.

"I'm going to go with Berserki um or however you pronounce his name."
KO R2 4:48 · UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · Mar 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Waldo Cortes Acosta 1 66 of 111 59% 77 of 123 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:57
Ryan Spann 0 23 of 86 26% 24 of 87 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 27 of 49 55% 31 of 53 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:49
Ryan Spann 0 12 of 33 36% 13 of 34 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:05
2 Waldo Cortes Acosta 1 39 of 62 62% 46 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Ryan Spann 0 11 of 53 20% 11 of 53 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Waldo Cortes Acosta 66 of 111 59% 56 of 97 4 of 6 6 of 8 59 of 100 1 of 2 6 of 9
Ryan Spann 23 of 86 26% 11 of 70 5 of 9 7 of 7 22 of 85 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Waldo Cortes Acosta 27 of 49 55% 21 of 40 1 of 3 5 of 6 25 of 45 1 of 2 1 of 2
Ryan Spann 12 of 33 36% 5 of 23 2 of 5 5 of 5 11 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Waldo Cortes Acosta 39 of 62 62% 35 of 57 3 of 3 1 of 2 34 of 55 0 of 0 5 of 7
Ryan Spann 11 of 53 20% 6 of 47 3 of 4 2 of 2 11 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Ryan Spann
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Cortes-Acosta (-166), Spann (+140)

Round 1
The preliminaries conclude with a heavyweight match that could provide a new contender when the dust settles. Cortes-Acosta (12-1, 5-1 UFC) has won five of six as a full-framed heavyweight, and his opponent Spann (22-10, 8-5 UFC) is introducing himself to the weight class by no longer cutting weight. The ex-205er weighed 249 pounds, so he will be adequately sized as he also stands an inch taller. Referee Mark Smith will be minding his P’s and Q’s as the big men throw down, and he stands by as they clap hands first. Spann strikes first with a heavy leg kick, and Smith tells the heavyweights to watch their extended fingers. Cortes-Acosta responds with his own low kick, but Spann’s has much more behind it. Cortes-Acosta whiffs on a left hook, and a big overhand right of his bangs into Spann’s raised guard. Spann kicks high and is blocked, and he kicks low but is not. Cortes-Acosta wades in with winging punches, and Spann is well out of harm’s way in time. Spann hammers the front leg with a kick, and he counters one coming his way with a thudding overhand right that stuns the man from Dominican Republic. Cortes-Acosta leans forward and the two clash heads, and Smith calls time to make sure no damage resulted from it. He resumes them, and the fighters trade punches. Cortes-Acosta catches Spann on the temple with a blistering right hand, and he uses his weight to drag Spann to the fence. Spann breaks free and plunks Cortes-Acosta with an overhand right, but Cortes-Acosta’s uppercut shakes him up again. Both men swing their fists from down beneath their hips, getting full torque into it. They both lash out with low kicks, and Cortes-Acosta checks it and draws a funny reaction from his opponent. Spann comes up short with a front kick, and Cortes-Acosta chews up his front leg with another kick. Spann goes to the body with his front kick, and Cortes-Acosta winds up with bad intentions looping his haymakers at the former light heavyweight. They clinch up, and Cortes-Acosta drives punches into Spann until Spann breaks away and launches some of his own. Spann gets off a low kick and slips out of the way from “Salsa Boy,” and Cortes-Acosta measures his man with a jab and a right hand that hurts Spann again. Cortes-Acosta’s forward momentum results in a tie-up, using his higher weight to toss Spann to his back. Spann tries to upkick him in the legs a few times until the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta

Round 2
The fighters lead off with a brief glove touch, and Spann is quick to fight behind his jab. Cortes-Acosta snaps his head back with a straight right hand, and he is met with a front kick to the belly. Cortes-Acosta jabs his man in the belly, but the fist goes low and bangs into Spann’s cup. Smith calls time, and Spann drops to his knees and takes a little under a minute to recover. They resume, and Cortes-Acosta flashes out his jab as Spann does the same. Cortes-Acosta scores a left and a right, and Spann indicates he was poked in the eye. Smith again pauses the action and checks the replay, and they get back to it after a few seconds. Spann jams the body with a kick, and he wings a huge right hand that Cortes-Acosta rolls with. Spann whiffs on another, and a third is met with a sharp jab from his foe. Spann is irritated about getting poked in the eye, and Smith issues a loud warning to Cortes-Acosta. Spann overthrows his punches, and the Dominican is beating him to the punch and clips the Fortis MMA fighter with his overhand right. Cortes-Acosta kicks the inner thigh, and the strike pounds square into his cup. Smith sighs heavily and calls time one more time. Spann crouches down and is not a happy camper after receiving these fouls, and Smith issues a final warning to Cortes-Acosta to keep things clean. The Texan takes more time than before to get his wind back, with Cortes-Acosta getting away with multiple fouls without a point deduction. The fighters get back to business after another 90-second break, and Spann returns to fighting behind his jab. Spann rifles off a calf kick, and Cortes-Acosta lands a powerful right hand across the forward bow. “Superman” dodges a check left hook but is unable to get away from the jab, and Cortes-Acosta loads up on his overhand right and sways the right direction to avoid one coming his direction. Cortes-Acosta prods with a jab until Spann bears down on him, and he uses the jab again to keep Spann honest. A one-two from Spann does not find its target, and he dances away from a similar pair of blows. Cortes-Acosta’s head movement and footwork keeps him safe, and he clubs Spann in the side of the dome. Spann spins with a back kick, and he shoots for a double that is met with 262 pounds of meat and several punches on the side of the head. Spann explodes back to his feet, and Cortes-Acosta is on him clubbing him with fists.
Spann swings back, still in trouble, and Cortes-Acosta sticks him with a jab and follows with a short left hook that levels Spann. When “Superman” hits the ground, Smith is already racing in towards the fighters, only to allow a few more punctuating hammerfists and punches to briefly shut Spann’s lights out.
Smith gets between them and allows Cortes-Acosta to reposition his foe’s legs who are tangled up with his, and Cortes-Acosta walks off to celebrate his handiwork. The ranked heavyweight calls for fights against either Tai Tuivasa or Derrick Lewis, and both are within his reach given his success in the division thus far.

The Official Result
Waldo Cortes-Acosta def. Ryan Spann R2 4:48 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Angelo picks Waldo Cortes Acosta over Ryan Spann. He believes Waldo is faster, has better movement, and cardio, while Spann's last win was his first in three years against an older opponent. He notes that public money might come in on Spann, making Waldo even better value.

"Waldo's the pick and that's not just because we were both in the movie the burden of Nine Lives."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Big Brady picks Waldo Cortes Acosta, reasoning that Ryan Spann is a round-one-or-bust fighter who fades after the first five minutes. He notes Spann's last win outside the first round was a split decision in 2020. Brady believes Cortes Acosta has good durability and cardio, and if he survives the first round, he will take over in the later rounds with higher output. He predicts a decision win for Cortes Acosta.

Cortes Acosta by decision
"give me Waldo Cortez aosta by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)

Cody picks Julius Walker, noting that the UFC is giving him a bounce-back fight after a competitive debut against Alonzo Menifield. He believes Raphael Cerqueira is a low-level opponent with poor durability and that Walker will win easily. He acknowledges the high price but sees it as a safe play.

"I feel like Julius really puts it on him. And the UFC understands fully. We've seen guys like Martin Budai six and one in the UFC cut. We've seen guys, you know, talented prospects, maybe like a TJ Laramie, he …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Jan 31, 2024 (409 days before fight)

Daniel does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses the matchup briefly but does not state a preference or bet.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

The host believes Cortes Acosta's takedown defense will keep the fight standing, allowing him to run away with the matchup in deep water and win on the scorecards.

"I believe Cortez a Costa's ability to keep span at Bay utilizing some decent enough takedown defense keeping this fight in the stand up realm and I think that will see Cortez aosta start to run away with this matchup …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)

Paul also picks Walker, citing his athleticism and the favorable matchup. He notes that Cerqueira has a padded record and has been knocked out quickly. He believes Walker will roll and sees value in the win, despite the high price.

"Walker for me. You"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Ryan Spann

The MMA Guru picks Ryan Spann, believing in light heavyweights succeeding at heavyweight. He notes Spann has touch-of-death power and dangerous grappling, though he has bad IQ moments. He criticizes Waldo Cortes Acosta as a 'fat heavyweight' who nearly got fraud-checked by Jared Vanderaa and has poor takedown entries. He thinks Spann's experience against better competition gives him the edge, and he expects a knockout.

"I'm gonna go Ryan span I'm GNA go with Ryan span over wildo Cortez a Costa I believe in light heavyweights succeeding at heavyweight"
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 1:35 · UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Oct 05, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ryan Spann 0 9 of 20 45% 9 of 20 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:03
Ovince Saint Preux 0 7 of 10 70% 7 of 10 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ryan Spann 0 9 of 20 45% 9 of 20 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:03
Ovince Saint Preux 0 7 of 10 70% 7 of 10 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ryan Spann 9 of 20 45% 5 of 13 2 of 5 2 of 2 9 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ovince Saint Preux 7 of 10 70% 2 of 3 0 of 2 5 of 5 7 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ryan Spann 9 of 20 45% 5 of 13 2 of 5 2 of 2 9 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ovince Saint Preux 7 of 10 70% 2 of 3 0 of 2 5 of 5 7 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 29, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Angelo picks Ryan Spann, citing his youth, danger, and finishing ability. He notes Ovince Saint Preux is older and hesitant. However, he is not betting on this fight due to the short notice and elevation, which could lead to a staring contest. He thinks the under 1.5 rounds line is tempting but unreliable.

Not betting due to uncertainty
"I'm going to pick Ryan span here... I'm not betting on this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Big Brady picks Ryan Spann to win by first-round knockout, acknowledging that Spann is dangerous early but fades if the fight goes past the first round. He notes that OSP is 41 and has been knocked out by lesser fighters like Tanner Boser and Philipe Lins, so Spann's power should be enough. He understands why people are betting OSP but trusts Spann's first-round finishing ability.

first round knockout
"I'm going take a Ryan span here to win this fight by first round knockout it's hard to trust him I see why people are betting OSP but I I mean I think Ryan span should I mean Ryan span …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ovince Saint Preux

Cody picks OSP, citing Spann's cardio issues and tendency to quit. He thinks OSP's durability and experience at altitude will allow him to outlast Spann. He expects a late finish or decision.

"OSP will be the pick"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Ryan Spann

Connor picks Spann, arguing that OSP's recent wins have come against smaller or slower opponents, while Spann is neither. Spann is fast and huge, and OSP's age and decline make him a poor bet. He notes that Spann's losses are bad, but he has the physical tools to beat OSP.

"I convinced you to pick Ryan's bond. Because OSP is... the fights that he's won are either against guys much smaller than him in the past or much slower than him."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ovince Saint Preux

Daniel Vreeland leans toward Ovince Saint Preux, citing his unorthodox style and veteran tactics. He notes that Ryan Spann is a talented flake with a weak chin and poor decision-making. Vreeland points out that OSP has beaten other Forest MMA fighters and had a career-high output in his last fight. He expects OSP to win if he survives the early rounds.

"I think ovince uh is going to complete the trifecta of the and be the forest MMA killer"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Ovince Saint Preux

The host believes Ovince Saint Preux will avoid the early finishing power of Ryan Spann and then chip away at him in the second and third rounds, winning on the scorecards. He notes that the moneyline is very juicy at the current price, indicating value.

moneyline is very juicy at the current price
"I do believe same PR will do a good enough job in terms of avoiding the early finishing power of Ryan span and then chipping away at him in the second and third rounds where he should be able to …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ovince Saint Preux

Paul picks OSP but with less confidence than before. He notes the altitude and Spann's cardio problems. He thinks OSP can find a finish or win a decision if he conserves energy.

"OSP will be the pick but I like it less"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

The MMA Guru picks Ryan Spann to KO Ovince Saint Preux, despite acknowledging Spann's poor decision-making. He believes Spann's explosive power and size will be too much for the 41-year-old OSP, who he considers finished. He expects Spann to land a brutal knockout on the early prelims, as OSP is unlikely to get takedowns and the fight will stay standing.

"I'm going to go with Ryan span you guys I've got a good feeling that he's going to KO oin St PR he's a big Power Striker he's very explosive"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Ryan Spann

Zane agrees with Connor, noting that OSP's recent wins are unimpressive and Spann has the size and speed advantage. He acknowledges Spann's inconsistency but believes he will win this matchup.

"Fine. I'll, I'll, you're gaslighting me right now. I'm quite sure I picked OSP. You're just lying to me, but you can pick him."
LOSS vs Bogdan Guskov
TKO (punches) R2 3:16 · UFC on ESPN: Nicolau vs. Perez · Apr 27, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bogdan Guskov 0 15 of 38 39% 20 of 44 1 of 3 33% 1 0 3:29
Ryan Spann 1 31 of 48 64% 49 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bogdan Guskov 0 6 of 10 60% 11 of 16 1 of 2 50% 1 0 3:29
Ryan Spann 0 3 of 8 37% 21 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Bogdan Guskov 0 9 of 28 32% 9 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Ryan Spann 1 28 of 40 70% 28 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bogdan Guskov 15 of 38 39% 10 of 30 3 of 6 2 of 2 11 of 34 2 of 2 2 of 2
Ryan Spann 31 of 48 64% 30 of 47 0 of 0 1 of 1 17 of 31 0 of 0 14 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bogdan Guskov 6 of 10 60% 3 of 6 2 of 3 1 of 1 2 of 6 2 of 2 2 of 2
Ryan Spann 3 of 8 37% 2 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Bogdan Guskov 9 of 28 32% 7 of 24 1 of 3 1 of 1 9 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ryan Spann 28 of 40 70% 28 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0 14 of 23 0 of 0 14 of 17
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Ryan Spann vs. Bogdan Guskov

Round 1
Herb Dean will oversee the co-main event. Both men show a lot of respect. Guskov throws an overhand right. Spann gets in on a takedown and then lands a knee to the groin. The fight is paused. They're put back in position oddly. Spann lands another low blow with a knee. Dean doesn't take a point despite two fouls in a row. They touch gloves as the fight continues. Spann lands an overhand right. Spann is able to get a takedown and lands in guard. Guskov gives up side control. Spann is able to get into mount and is looking to take the back. Guskov almost escapes, but Spann is able to get his hooks in and takes the back. Spann is looking for a rear-naked choke with a minute left. Guskov is flattened out, so Spann abandons the attempt and starts punching before the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Spann
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Spann
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Spann

Round 2
It is a slow start to the second round as both men are hesitant about the other's power. Both men miss with hooks. Guskov hurts Spann with a right hand and then a left hook. Spann dives for a takedown to no avail. Spann fires back with a right hand of his own. Guskov eats a giant overhand right. Spann lands another looping punch. Guskov comes forward with straight punches and is beating Spann to the punch.
A huge uppercut hurts Spann. A right hand floors Spann, who then eats a series of vicious right hands on the ground. Herb Dean finally steps in, and this is over!

The Official Result
Bogdan Guskov def. Ryan Spann TKO (Punches); R2, 3:16.
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Angelo picks Ryan Spann due to experience, size, and durability. He thinks Bogdan Guskov may have early success but will fade, while Spann will survive and take over. He notes Spann is dangerous everywhere (striking, submissions, wrestling) and has cardio for 15 minutes. He believes Spann likely wins by decision or late stoppage, but is not confident enough to bet on him.

"Ryan span is going to be the pick because of experience I don't know if I trust him enough to bet on him"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Bogdan Guskov

Cody leans toward Guskov as a doger pass, citing Spann's inconsistencies and poor durability. He thinks Guskov's power gives him a puncher's chance, especially if Spann's weight cut is rough. However, he admits Guskov is not very good and the pick is high variance.

by KO (estimated +200)
"it's a doger pass type of spot for me Goose can or Goose can that may actually be he could be I don't think this guy's very good whatsoever but you're laying a A plus 170 him by knockout would …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Daniel acknowledges Spann's talent and athleticism but calls him a 'talented flake' with mental issues and a history of getting knocked out the same way. He thinks Spann should win based on skills but can't lay -190 on him. He leans Spann but passes on betting.

"I lean Ryan span but minus 190 minus 200 is not a lean price so I think it's a dogger pass situation but pure pick I'm going go Ryan span here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Ryan Spann

Spann has the athleticism, power, and speed advantage. He should be able to hurt Guskov early and find a finish, likely in the first round. Guskov was knocked out in his UFC debut and may be vulnerable to Spann's power. I expect Spann to win by first-round knockout.

"I do think that we'll see Ryan span dictate the pace really put the pressure on gusov and then eventually find that early finish here give me span and span by first round knock"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Paul picks Spann despite his inconsistencies, arguing Spann has faced much better competition and is more skilled overall. He believes Spann's takedowns and grappling will be the difference, and that Guskov's padded record and lack of durability will be exposed.

"I got to go with span again he's just the better guy"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

The MMA Guru picks Ryan Spann, noting that Bogdan Guskov has never fought someone taller than him and keeps his hands down. He criticizes Guskov's style of throwing shovel hooks from the waist, which may not work against a longer opponent. He believes Spann's reach and low kicks will be effective, and mentions Spann's guillotine threat. He predicts Spann will win, possibly by low kicks.

"I'm going with Ryan span over Bogdan gusov"
LOSS vs Anthony Smith
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie · Aug 26, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Anthony Smith 0 91 of 147 61% 91 of 147 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:56
Ryan Spann 0 59 of 187 31% 62 of 191 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Anthony Smith 0 24 of 42 57% 24 of 42 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:45
Ryan Spann 0 10 of 41 24% 10 of 41 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Anthony Smith 0 22 of 36 61% 22 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Ryan Spann 0 22 of 60 36% 25 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:19
3 Anthony Smith 0 45 of 69 65% 45 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ryan Spann 0 27 of 86 31% 27 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Anthony Smith 91 of 147 61% 44 of 92 12 of 15 35 of 40 90 of 146 1 of 1 0 of 0
Ryan Spann 59 of 187 31% 39 of 158 14 of 23 6 of 6 50 of 174 0 of 0 9 of 13
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Anthony Smith 24 of 42 57% 9 of 25 1 of 1 14 of 16 23 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0
Ryan Spann 10 of 41 24% 5 of 32 4 of 8 1 of 1 10 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Anthony Smith 22 of 36 61% 10 of 22 4 of 4 8 of 10 22 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ryan Spann 22 of 60 36% 16 of 52 5 of 7 1 of 1 13 of 47 0 of 0 9 of 13
3 Anthony Smith 45 of 69 65% 25 of 45 7 of 10 13 of 14 45 of 69 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ryan Spann 27 of 86 31% 18 of 74 5 of 8 4 of 4 27 of 86 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 20, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Angelo believes Smith's best days are behind him, citing his recent loss to Johnny Walker where he was dropped and then headhunted. He thinks Spann will be too big, fast, and powerful for Smith. He has a full unit bet on Spann at -147, noting that the bet is more about Smith's decline than Spann's rise.

Full unit bet on Ryan Spann at -147
"I think that this is gonna be Ryan span all day I have a full unit on him"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Big Brady questions why this rematch is happening, noting Anthony Smith dominated the first fight. However, he believes Smith looks uninterested and has taken too much damage, citing his recent performances against Johnny Walker and Magomed Ankalaev. He thinks Spann is dangerous everywhere and will knock out Smith in the first round, as Smith's durability is declining.

first round knockout
"give me Ryan span to knock out Anthony Smith in the first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Smith

Cody picks Smith because he already beat Spann via submission and is getting plus money. He notes that Spann is a one-round fighter who fades under adversity, while Smith has better grappling and durability. Cody believes Smith can survive the early onslaught and take over later in the fight.

Smith by submission; under 1.5 rounds
"Smith beat him clean with the Striking last time and then finished the deal with the submission"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Daniel picks Ryan Spann, reasoning that Spann is an athletic freak who can catch Smith early. He notes that Smith is coming off a leg break and looked terrible against Johnny Walker. He acknowledges that Smith dominated the first fight, but believes Spann's power and explosiveness give him a chance to finish early. He is not confident, calling it a lean.

"I'm gonna go Ryan span to catch him early and just get him out of there kind of a front running loaded Victory"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Aug 26, 2023 (fight day)
Anthony Smith

James picks Anthony Smith, citing his cardio advantage and durability. He notes Smith hurt and submitted Spann in their first fight, and Spann's finishing equity drops after round one. He believes Smith is not as washed as some think and that the line is off. He also mentions Smith's historical durability and difficulty to submit.

"I'm all over the Smith side here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Anthony Smith

The host recalls Smith's submission win over Spann in their first fight and believes Smith's veteran experience and confidence will allow him to replicate that performance. He notes Spann is dangerous early but fades, and expects Smith to exchange in the pocket, hurt Spann, and submit him again. The host likes the under 1.5 rounds prop and finds Smith as a dog 'absolutely crazy'.

under 1.5 rounds
"Give me Smith as the dog which I find absolutely crazy considering this fight you know happened like two years ago not much has changed."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Paul initially picks Spann due to his recent wins and early explosiveness, but after Cody corrects him on the first fight result, he switches to Smith. However, his original pick was Spann, so we capture that. He notes Spann is dangerous early but fades, and Smith is durable enough to survive.

under 1.5 rounds
"I'll pick span because he already won seems to have a bit of a grappling Edge early"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

The MMA Guru picks Ryan Spann in the rematch, believing Anthony Smith has declined physically and mentally. He notes Smith's poor physique and lack of fast-twitch fibers, comparing him to a fighter past his prime. He thinks Spann's scrambling and power will be enough, and that Smith won't land the same hook again. He predicts Spann will catch Smith and finish him, possibly in round two, leading to Smith's retirement.

Finish in round 2 predicted
"I'm gonna go Ryan span at some point catches him in this fight and puts him away maybe round two"
LOSS vs Nikita Krylov
Submission (triangle choke) R1 3:38 · UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · Mar 11, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nikita Krylov 0 7 of 12 58% 24 of 31 2 of 2 100% 2 2 2:39
Ryan Spann 0 5 of 11 45% 5 of 11 1 of 2 50% 1 2 0:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nikita Krylov 0 7 of 12 58% 24 of 31 2 of 2 100% 2 2 2:39
Ryan Spann 0 5 of 11 45% 5 of 11 1 of 2 50% 1 2 0:32
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nikita Krylov 7 of 12 58% 2 of 7 2 of 2 3 of 3 3 of 7 3 of 4 1 of 1
Ryan Spann 5 of 11 45% 4 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nikita Krylov 7 of 12 58% 2 of 7 2 of 2 3 of 3 3 of 7 3 of 4 1 of 1
Ryan Spann 5 of 11 45% 4 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Nikita Krylov vs. Ryan Spann
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Krylov (-170), Spann (+145)

Round 1
Two weeks later than expected, fans in the building should soon be treated to an all-action slugfest in what was supposed to be the UFC Vegas 70 headliner. A combined 38 first-round finishes have come between Krylov (29-9, 10-7 UFC) and Spann (21-7, 7-2 UFC), with stellar stoppage rates of 93% for the former and 86% for the Texan. Referee Herb Dean better buckle up for this one, although he is able to take solace knowing it is still a matchup without any bad blood. With the cancelation a few weeks ago, this is no longer taking place at light heavyweight, and instead at 215 pounds. Fists are bumped before they throw down, and when they do, it should be one heck of a show. Spann reaches out with an early jab as Krylov kicks, and Spann follows it with a few punches that knock Krylov around. Krylov gains space after bouncing off the fence, and he pops Spann with a right hand to wobble the Texan’s legs. Krylov advances to try to keep swinging, and he ends up clinched up with his opponent. Spann throws Krylov down to the mat, and he lands on top and starts fishing for a submission. Krylov sits up and finds his neck in submission danger, but he shucks off the first guillotine choke try as Spann switches to a brabo choke. Krylov stays patient, and Spann adjusts his head and settles down with another guillotine. “The Miner” digs through the pain and discomfort to yank his neck free, and the two fighters work their way back upright. Krylov holds Spann from behind and kicks him in the side of the face awkwardly, and he drags Spann down to the ground. Spann turns the tables to take Krylov down, and Spann winds up in a guillotine choke threat on the other side. Spann slides out the back door and frees himself, and he grabs a two-on-one wrist lock in an attempt to scramble out. Krylov stays tightly pressed to him and lands a few punches that might have hit the back of the head. Spann stands up and Krylov falls over, and Spann jumps on top of him to drop hammers down.
When Spann lands on top, Krylov wraps his legs up around his opponent's head to tighten up a triangle choke. Spann knows this time, there is no way out, as he fell right into a trap. “Superman” is forced to surrender to the choke, as the crowd is silenced at the sudden conclusion of the mighty grappling battle.
This gives the victor, who is not representing a country given the Russian invasion of his home country of Ukraine, his 30th pro win and 28th by stoppage.

The Official Result
Nikita Krylov def. Ryan Spann R1 3:38 via Submission (Triangle Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Angelo originally picked Nikita Krylov due to his wrestling and grinding ability, but the illness has significantly reduced his confidence. He still thinks Krylov will win if he is 100%, but he is no longer betting on him. He suggests a prop bet on Ryan Spann inside the distance (decision no action) because Spann is dangerous and the fight is now three rounds instead of five.

Ryan Spann inside the distance (decision no action) bet suggestion
"I'm no longer gonna bet on the key to cry love I've lost that much confidence him I think he probably still wins this... but the bet is definitely going to be Ryan span inside the distance decision no action"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Big Brady picks Ryan Spann for the slight upset, noting both fighters have durability issues. He questions Krylov's submission defense (submitted six times) and Spann's chin. Brady expects a first-round finish, predicting Spann locks up a guillotine when Krylov shoots for takedowns. He has low confidence but thinks someone gets finished early.

win by submission in round 1
"I'm gonna say span locks up locks up a submission here in the very first round hard to be confident in picking a winner in this fight but I'll take span for the slight upset"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Cody flips to Ryan Spann, citing Krylov's recent illness and the change from five rounds to three rounds. He thinks Spann's cardio is less of a concern in a three-round fight and notes Spann's submission threat. He believes the narrative of Krylov pulling out is enough to take the underdog.

"I think I'm flip-flopping over to Ryan span and again it's for like nothing other than just bad juju narrative by Nikita Karlov pulls out of a fight two weeks ago"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Connor picks Krylov, emphasizing his durability and relentless wrestling. He notes that Spann has poor takedown defense (83% takedown defense when excluding the Enrique fight) and that Krylov will keep shooting takedowns. Connor also points out that Krylov has never been knocked out and is crafty in finding ways to win. He expects Krylov to survive Spann's early power and take over with grappling.

Odds mentioned: Krylov opened -170, now -172; Spann opened +145, now +143.
"I think the only reason I would ever pick Ryan Spann in this fight is on the idea that he would knock Nikita Krylov out and that has never happened. ... Krylov, he wrestles everyone. That is really truly how …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

I think Krylov's improved grappling and takedown game will be key. He should drag Spann to the ground and work from top position, but he must be careful of Spann's guillotine. Spann's early power is a threat, but if Krylov survives the first round, he can take over. I expect a submission or TKO in the latter rounds. However, the early threat from Spann makes me hesitant to bet this fight.

Krylov inside the distance, by submission
"give me krilloff inside the distance let's say by submission but that early threat from Ryan span is going to be it's going to be a lot which will likely keep me off of this fight completely"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Paul picks Krylov but with less confidence than two weeks ago due to Krylov pulling out of the previous fight. He notes Krylov's improvements and path to victory via takedowns, but questions why Krylov pulled out. He thinks the -170 price is about right and calls it a stay-away.

"crylove is still the pick but I'm even less confident in it this week than I was last week or two weeks ago"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

The MMA Guru picks Nikita Krylov, citing Ryan Spann's weight cut issues and the fact that Spann missed weight in his last fight. He believes Krylov's illness may help him keep weight down, while Spann will struggle with two weight cuts back-to-back. He predicts Krylov will push the pace, take Spann down, and get a TKO or submission in the later rounds.

by TKO or submission, second or third round
"I'm gonna trust in Nikita krylov even though he was Ill been two weeks he's definitely recovered since then I think the illness will help him keep his weight down"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Zane picks Krylov, agreeing with Connor's assessment. He highlights Spann's terrible takedown defense and Krylov's durability. Zane notes that Krylov is not a clean technician but makes good decisions and is flexible. He expects Krylov to take Spann down and grind out a win, as Spann is chinny and tense.

Odds mentioned: Krylov opened -170, now -172; Spann opened +145, now +143.
"I got a numbers like that. I mean, even with the 50%, how do you not pick Krylov? You know, he's going to keep trying."
KO (punches) R1 1:20 · UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · Nov 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ryan Spann 0 5 of 12 41% 5 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dominick Reyes 1 8 of 17 47% 8 of 17 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ryan Spann 0 5 of 12 41% 5 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dominick Reyes 1 8 of 17 47% 8 of 17 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ryan Spann 5 of 12 41% 1 of 8 4 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dominick Reyes 8 of 17 47% 7 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 16 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ryan Spann 5 of 12 41% 1 of 8 4 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dominick Reyes 8 of 17 47% 7 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 16 0 of 0 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Dominick Reyes vs. Ryan Spann (206.6: Missed Weight)
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Reyes (-205), Spann (+175)

Round 1
It’s been a rough stretch for Reyes, who was finished by Jiri Prochazka and Jan Blachowicz in back-to-back fights after a near-victory against Jon Jones in February 2020. He’ll look to right the ship against Spann, who missed weight by half a pound but has been victorious in six of eight promotional appearances. Marc Goddard gets the call to oversee the light heavyweight clash. Reyes with a front kick down the middle, and Spann misses a high kick. A right hand from Spann makes Reyes stumble, and Reyes answers. Reyes slips during an ensuing exchange and Spann latches onto a guillotine. He relents and they’re back at range. Spann counters a kick with a 1-2 combination and Reyes attempts to answer.
As he steps in, a short left hand from “Superman” — along with a glancing right — lays Reyes out stiff on the canvas. He dives in and lands one unnecessary blow before Goddard dives in to save Reyes.
Spann has his second straight first-round finish in the Octagon. Reyes’ struggles continue, as he loses his fourth straight.

The Official Result
Ryan Spann def. Dominick Reyes via KO (Punches) R1 1:20
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert picked Nov 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)

Angelo does not make a pick for this fight. He notes that Reyes is a former title challenger with suspect chin coming off two KO losses, while Spann is a powerful but slow striker. He says the odds favor Reyes at 2-1 but calls it a coin toss and advises against betting at those odds. He will wait for weigh-ins and a Tuesday breakdown before deciding.

"I'm gonna hold off on a pick here watch our Tuesday night breakdown maybe I'm more confident then"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Big Brady picks Dominick Reyes to win by first-round knockout, but expresses low trust due to Reyes' recent performances and mental state. He notes Reyes has looked awful since the Jon Jones fight, being hesitant and getting knocked out by Jan Blachowicz. However, he believes Reyes is the much better striker with phenomenal takedown defense, and that Spann has been dropped by lesser fighters (Sam Alvey, Anthony Smith). He says if Reyes loses this, it's inexcusable.

Reyes by KO in round 1; not recommended for betting
"give me Dominic Reyes give me Dominic Reyes by knockout in the first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Cody picks Ryan Spann as an underdog, citing narrative and speculation. He notes that Reyes' wins came against opponents who were past their prime or at a weight disadvantage, and that Reyes has lost three straight, including two knockouts. Cody points out that Reyes has been inactive for a year and a half and may have ring rust, while Spann is younger, active, and improving. He thinks Spann's power and reach could capitalize on Reyes' potential durability and confidence issues.

"I know this one's probably a bad call but I'll I'm spamming Underdog and I think on Ryan's fan... I just think on a card that I again agree with a lot of the favorites I feel like there's maybe …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Connor picks Dominick Reyes, arguing that despite Reyes' recent losses, Spann's messy style and lack of discipline play into Reyes' counter-punching strengths. He notes that Spann's entries are wild and he often leaves openings, while Reyes is a cool, technical counter puncher. Connor believes Spann is not capable of making Reyes as uncomfortable as Prochazka did, and that Reyes should be able to take him apart.

"Dominic Reyes should be able to take him apart at the seams."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Daniel Levi picks Dominick Reyes to knock out Ryan Spann, citing Reyes' superior distance game, straight left, and composure. He notes that Spann has been knocked out three times the same way (on takedown attempts) and has a questionable chin. Levi believes Reyes is on a different level and that Spann's mental fragility and tendency to get wild will be his downfall. He also mentions that Reyes has taken a year off and changed camps, which should help him refocus.

Predicts a knockout win for Reyes; odds mentioned: Reyes -225, Spann +190 at DraftKings
"I think Dominic Reyes gets back on track like the guys that have been beating Reyes are all Champions"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

The host sees Reyes as the better technical striker with good range and a clean left hand. He is concerned about the layoff and durability questions after recent KO losses, but believes Reyes can take his time and finish Spann in the latter half. He likes the over 1.5 rounds at -120 as Reyes may be cautious early. He won't bet the moneyline at -225 but picks Reyes by KO.

over 1.5 rounds (-120)
"I do lean Reyes here I just can't get past or behind that minus 225 line considering his layoff"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Paul picks Dominick Reyes, arguing that if the fight extends, Reyes will lap Spann in volume. He notes that Spann's decision wins are uninspiring (e.g., split decision over Sam Alvey) and that he has been knocked out by Johnny Walker. Paul believes Reyes' losses are to elite competition (Jones, Blachowicz, Prochazka) and that Spann hasn't fought anyone of that caliber. He thinks Reyes' volume and experience will be decisive.

"I'm gonna pick Dominic Reyes here I just think uh if this fight does get extended which a lot of spam fights do not Reyes should absolutely like lap lap em in uh in volume."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

The MMA Guru hesitantly picks Ryan Spann, expressing concern about Reyes' motivation and damage taken after the Jones fight and long layoff. He thinks Reyes may shell up under power and predicts Spann will rock him and secure a guillotine choke. He acknowledges Spann's glass chin but believes his bursts will be enough.

guillotine choke
"I think I'm gonna go over Ryan's bam"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Reyes. He notes that Spann is a dangerous but fundamentally limited fighter who relies on chaos, while Reyes has a thin but effective counter-punching game. Zane points out that Spann's wild entries and lack of durability make him vulnerable to Reyes' counters, and that Reyes' losses came against elite fighters who could exploit his weaknesses in ways Spann cannot.

"Unless the bond gets really lucky early, uh, Reyes should be able to take him apart at the seams."
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Angelo picks Waldo Cortes Acosta over Ryan Spann. He believes Waldo is faster, has better movement, and cardio, while Spann's last win was his first in three years against an older opponent. He notes that public money might come in on Spann, making Waldo even better value.

"Waldo's the pick and that's not just because we were both in the movie the burden of Nine Lives."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Big Brady picks Waldo Cortes Acosta, reasoning that Ryan Spann is a round-one-or-bust fighter who fades after the first five minutes. He notes Spann's last win outside the first round was a split decision in 2020. Brady believes Cortes Acosta has good durability and cardio, and if he survives the first round, he will take over in the later rounds with higher output. He predicts a decision win for Cortes Acosta.

Cortes Acosta by decision
"give me Waldo Cortez aosta by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)
No clear pick

Cody picks Julius Walker, noting that the UFC is giving him a bounce-back fight after a competitive debut against Alonzo Menifield. He believes Raphael Cerqueira is a low-level opponent with poor durability and that Walker will win easily. He acknowledges the high price but sees it as a safe play.

"I feel like Julius really puts it on him. And the UFC understands fully. We've seen guys like Martin Budai six and one in the UFC cut. We've seen guys, you know, talented prospects, maybe like a TJ Laramie, he goes 0 and2 in the UFC, gets cut."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Jan 31, 2024 (409 days before fight)
No clear pick

Daniel does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses the matchup briefly but does not state a preference or bet.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

The host believes Cortes Acosta's takedown defense will keep the fight standing, allowing him to run away with the matchup in deep water and win on the scorecards.

"I believe Cortez a Costa's ability to keep span at Bay utilizing some decent enough takedown defense keeping this fight in the stand up realm and I think that will see Cortez aosta start to run away with this matchup in deep water winning this fight on the scorecards."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)
No clear pick

Paul also picks Walker, citing his athleticism and the favorable matchup. He notes that Cerqueira has a padded record and has been knocked out quickly. He believes Walker will roll and sees value in the win, despite the high price.

"Walker for me. You"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Ryan Spann

The MMA Guru picks Ryan Spann, believing in light heavyweights succeeding at heavyweight. He notes Spann has touch-of-death power and dangerous grappling, though he has bad IQ moments. He criticizes Waldo Cortes Acosta as a 'fat heavyweight' who nearly got fraud-checked by Jared Vanderaa and has poor takedown entries. He thinks Spann's experience against better competition gives him the edge, and he expects a knockout.

"I'm gonna go Ryan span I'm GNA go with Ryan span over wildo Cortez a Costa I believe in light heavyweights succeeding at heavyweight"
Comments (2)
BR
brian 10 months, 3 weeks ago

Spann moving up weightclass?

BR
brian 10 months, 3 weeks ago

Waldo is hard to take down. Iron chin. Decent performance from Spann but he isn't a HW