Career Averages - Yuneisy Duben
Career Averages - Carli Judice
Yuneisy Duben - Fight History
The host picks Chavez, noting that she is the better striker and better in the clinch, with effective elbows. He believes that as the fight drags on, Chavez's elbows will back off Dubin. He also notes that Dubin is not a big takedown threat, so Chavez's poor takedown defense may not be exposed.
AJ favors Chavez due to her superior technical striking, athleticism, and Muay Thai background, despite Duben's knockout power. He notes Duben's head movement issues and wild volume, while Chavez showed good recovery and body work. AJ expects Chavez to outwork Duben, likely by decision, but a late finish is possible.
Angelo is very confident in Jeisla Chaves, calling her a 'dog' with aggressive Muay Thai and good durability. He notes that Duben is one-dimensional and only has a puncher's chance. He mentions that Chaves' opening odds were -900 and feels -400 is still great value, even joking about taking a mortgage out on the house.
Big Brady picks Jeisla Chaves to win by first round knockout. He is not convinced about Duben's durability, cardio, or ground game, and sees Duben as a one-big-shot fighter. He likes Chaves' boxing, toughness, and heart, and expects her to overwhelm Duben with volume and power.
Both fighters have knockouts over nobodies, but Jeisla Chaves has proven she can go the distance with a decent opponent in Sophia Montenegro. Yuneisy Duben is knockout or bust, and Chaves can take a decision win. However, Chaves is a heavy favorite at minus 500, which the host disagrees with.
Jeisla Chaves is picked but with low confidence. She is the better striker with good leg kicks, but she is hittable and has been dropped before. Yuneisy Duben has power but is unproven and has a year layoff. The host advises against betting this fight due to unpredictability, but expects Chaves to win by knockout or decision.
Chaves is slightly better overall, with a size and reach advantage. Duben has never been tested deep into a fight, while Chaves has gone the distance and has late finishes. Chaves should win by third-round TKO via ground and pound.
Lucrative James picks Jeisla Chaves, considering her the much better fighter overall with superior cardio and striking. He acknowledges Yuneisy Duben's power and the volatility of the fight, but expects Chaves to win via knockout. He suggests the under 2.5 rounds or 'fight doesn't go to decision' prop as a potential bet.
Chaves is the better overall mixed martial artist with good Muay Thai skills and athleticism. Duben has power but poor striking and grappling defense. Chaves should find openings to finish by knockout or submission. The under 2.5 rounds at -120 is a good play.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yuneisy Duben | 0 | 14 of 41 | 34% | 14 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carli Judice | 1 | 17 of 43 | 39% | 19 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yuneisy Duben | 0 | 14 of 41 | 34% | 14 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carli Judice | 1 | 17 of 43 | 39% | 19 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yuneisy Duben | 14 of 41 | 34% | 8 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 9 | 14 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carli Judice | 17 of 43 | 39% | 12 of 34 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yuneisy Duben | 14 of 41 | 34% | 8 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 9 | 14 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carli Judice | 17 of 43 | 39% | 12 of 34 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Judice (-380), Duben (+300)
Round 1
Of all the fight cards the UFC has ever held, UFC Fight Night 254 is certainly one of them. With 10 of the 26 combatants sporting UFC records above .500, this could be one of those shows where the cut list will reach five or more players. We kick things off in the women’s flyweight division with one of those types of matches where a fighter has their back against the wall. Unbeaten Venezuelan Duben (6-0, 1 NC; 0-0 UFC) may have a bit of a gaudy record, but her first five wins came against ladies with a combined record of 0-0 (and a no contest). Standing in her way with a lot on the line will be Judice (3-2, 0-1 UFC), who earned her spot on the roster with a
loss
on the Contender Series. Fists are soon to fly, and before they do, referee Mark Smith checks them in. There is a quick fist bump that precedes the action. Judice takes to the center of the cage, and Duben walks right towards her and kicks her several times on the lead leg. Judice jabs her way out of an engagement, and she snaps up a question mark kick that surprises her opponent. The Venezuelan plants her feet and throws hands, and when she scores, she circles away. Judice plants her fist on her foe’s face, and she appears more technical than Duben as her strikes are straight while Duben’s are winging and a bit sloppy. Judice cracks Duben with a straight punch combo, and she makes Duben bounce off the fencing. Duben responds with a spinning back fist, and Judice blocks the worst of it and comes out swinging. Duben ricochets off the wall again, and she punches her way out of a tough situation. Judice resets, and she marches the newcomer down and chambers her left leg.
Her shin smashes square into the chin, and Duben goes down on her side in a heap. A few follow-up punches from “Crispy” are merely academic, as Smith is rushing in between them to stop the fight.
This is a heck of a way to start the night, with Duben ejected violently out of the ranks of the unbeaten while Judice concludes her losing streak with a bang. Headkicks MMA is her team, and she represented it well with that performance.
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The Official Result
Carli Judice
def.
Yuneisy Duben
R1 1:40 via TKO (Head Kick and Punches)
Angelo picks Yuneisy Duben over Carli Judice. He acknowledges Judice is technically better but Duben's chaotic aggression and finishing ability sway him. He is concerned about Duben's cardio since she has never gone to a decision. He suggests an under bet as a possibility.
Big Brady picks Carli Judice over Yuneisy Duben. He notes that Duben's level of competition is extremely low, with her opponents having almost no wins combined, and that her only notable win was a huge upset on the Contender Series where she was a +1000 underdog. In contrast, Judice's two UFC losses were competitive against solid fighters like Ernesta Kareckaite and Gabriella Fernandes. Brady believes Judice's volume, cardio, and top game will be too much for Duben, who has never seen a third round. He predicts a second-round TKO finish for Judice.
Cody does not make a clear pick for this fight, as it was added late and not discussed in detail. He mentions the fight briefly but does not give a pick.
Daniel does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses the matchup briefly but does not state a preference or bet.
The host believes Judice is the superior striker with better combinations, footwork, and range management. He expects her to set up a trap and knock out Duben within two rounds.
Paul does not make a clear pick for this fight, as it was added late and not discussed in detail. He mentions the fight briefly but does not give a pick.
The MMA Guru picks Yuneisy Duben as an underdog, citing her undefeated record (6-0), training with Rosam Unas and Miranda Maverick, and her power to knock people out. He notes Carli Judice is rangy but lacks power in her punches, comparing her striking to early Yan Xiaonan but not at that level. He also mentions Duben's nasty KO win on the Contender Series and that she was sick three days before that fight, showing resilience. He admits he also picks her because she's attractive, but emphasizes she's well-rounded and dangerous.
Carli Judice - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carli Judice | 0 | 36 of 122 | 29% | 46 of 138 | 2 of 13 | 15% | 1 | 0 | 3:38 |
| Juliana Miller | 0 | 79 of 185 | 42% | 104 of 214 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:07 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carli Judice | 0 | 10 of 25 | 40% | 15 of 32 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:58 |
| Juliana Miller | 0 | 18 of 40 | 45% | 37 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:52 | |
| 2 | Carli Judice | 0 | 17 of 58 | 29% | 18 of 61 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Juliana Miller | 0 | 35 of 89 | 39% | 36 of 91 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Carli Judice | 0 | 9 of 39 | 23% | 13 of 45 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 1:40 |
| Juliana Miller | 0 | 26 of 56 | 46% | 31 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carli Judice | 36 of 122 | 29% | 24 of 100 | 11 of 20 | 1 of 2 | 29 of 109 | 7 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
| Juliana Miller | 79 of 185 | 42% | 53 of 143 | 20 of 34 | 6 of 8 | 75 of 180 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carli Judice | 10 of 25 | 40% | 6 of 19 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 19 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Juliana Miller | 18 of 40 | 45% | 11 of 29 | 5 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 36 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Carli Judice | 17 of 58 | 29% | 12 of 50 | 4 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 53 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Juliana Miller | 35 of 89 | 39% | 26 of 72 | 8 of 14 | 1 of 3 | 35 of 88 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Carli Judice | 9 of 39 | 23% | 6 of 31 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 37 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Juliana Miller | 26 of 56 | 46% | 16 of 42 | 7 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 26 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Carli Judice, citing her superior striking, good volume, and takedown defense. He notes Juliana Miller has heart but lacks skill and hasn't improved. He mentions a potential prop bet on Miller plus 3.5 if she wins a round, but his clear pick is Judice.
Big Brady picks Carli Judice to defeat Juliana Miller, calling it a 'sanctioned murder.' He notes Miller has terrible striking defense (36%) and was pieced up by Luana Santos, who is not a good striker. He believes Judice is physically strong, has good takedown defense, and superior striking with phenomenal volume. He predicts a first-round knockout, possibly by head kick or knee, and thinks it could be a mercy stoppage.
Cody thinks Judice's striking and athleticism will be too much for Miller. He notes Miller's poor wrestling and linear movement. He expects Judice to win by decision or TKO.
Connor picks Judice, comparing her technical footwork to Duane Ludwig. He notes she shifts to cut angles and outmaneuver opponents, which has improved since her debut. Miller is tough but can't strike or wrestle, and Judice will easily outclass her.
James picks Carli Judice to win by knockout, citing her massive striking advantage over Miller. He notes that Miller is multiple levels below Judice on the feet and that her only hope is grappling, which Judice has defended well. James expects Judice to land a TKO.
Judice is a talented striker with good takedown defense, as shown in her recent wins. She should be able to keep the fight standing and pick apart Miller, who is mediocre on the feet. Miller will try to grapple, but Judice has improved her grappling defense and should get back to her feet. Expect a TKO in the second or third round as Miller fades.
Paul agrees, citing Judice's improvement and Miller's lack of wrestling. He thinks Miller's only path is takedowns, but Judice's striking will be too much. He expects Judice to win comfortably.
The MMA Guru believes Carli Judice is a much more technical fighter with a significant striking advantage over Juliana Miller. He notes that Judice arguably won her Contender Series fight and her UFC debut, and has since finished her last two opponents via TKO. He expects Judice to break Miller down with body work, specifically knees, front kicks, and teeps, leading to a second or third round TKO.
Zane picks Judice emphatically, noting she has improved dramatically as a technician, especially her footwork. She runs circles around opponents and negates power disadvantages. Miller can't strike or wrestle, and Judice will tear her apart. Zane expects Judice to style on Miller.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carli Judice | 1 | 109 of 225 | 48% | 117 of 235 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 0 | 32 of 101 | 31% | 35 of 104 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 1:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carli Judice | 0 | 38 of 78 | 48% | 44 of 86 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:43 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 0 | 11 of 40 | 27% | 13 of 42 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 | |
| 2 | Carli Judice | 0 | 47 of 108 | 43% | 49 of 110 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:25 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 0 | 16 of 51 | 31% | 17 of 52 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 3 | Carli Judice | 1 | 24 of 39 | 61% | 24 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 0 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 5 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carli Judice | 109 of 225 | 48% | 85 of 193 | 24 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 96 of 210 | 10 of 12 | 3 of 3 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 32 of 101 | 31% | 26 of 85 | 3 of 12 | 3 of 4 | 30 of 98 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carli Judice | 38 of 78 | 48% | 26 of 62 | 12 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 32 of 70 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 11 of 40 | 27% | 8 of 32 | 2 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 37 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Carli Judice | 47 of 108 | 43% | 41 of 101 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 46 of 107 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 16 of 51 | 31% | 13 of 44 | 1 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 16 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Carli Judice | 24 of 39 | 61% | 18 of 30 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 33 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 5 of 10 | 50% | 5 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Judice (-278), Caliari (+225)
Round 1
It’s time for another pay-per-view, this time with no divisional belt on top. While there may be a “BMF Title” exchange at night’s end, the promotion has already shown that it can be taken and bestowed to any match that needs a marketing boost. Additionally, its holder does not surrender it on a loss like a linear belt, making it a shiny, expensive trophy that tends to involve a celebrity draping it around the victor. That celebrity tonight will likely be Lil Wayne. Before all that, we have a bakers’ dozen matchups to plow through. Flyweights will be first to the cage, as head kick aficionado Judice (4-2, 1-1 UFC), who trains out of Headkicks MMA, battles Brazil’s Caliari (8-3, 0-1 UFC). The ladies will receive oversight from referee Bassel Mahgoub to start things off, and they bump gloves to seal the cage around them.
Caliari gets right to business, chasing after “Crispy” with a combination of punches and ending it with a head kick. She pitches a similar flurry when Judice backpedals to defend herself. Judice parries the worst of the attacks and jabs out with her lead fist and front kick. Caliari crashes forward with a left hand, and Judice responds with a body kick and an overhand left. Judice splits the guard with a second punch, and she steps in to stun Caliari with a knee. Caliari responds with a tackling takedown, dragging the American to her knees for a moment. Judice wall-walks to get upright despite Caliari clinging around her waist from behind, and she fights off a few mat return efforts while leaned on the cage. The fans are quick to express restlessness, letting the flyweights have it with boos until Judice breaks away. When they reset, Judice jams Caliari in the jaw with a sharp knee.
Caliari shakes it off and pursues a half-baked takedown, and Judice stops her subsequent head-and-arm throw to put Caliari on her face. Caliari now is the one having to work to her feet, and Judice frames off by pegging her with elbows and a knee. Caliari takes a few steps back, and Judice gives chase with a front kick and a barrage of fists. Caliari tries to respond with power strikes, reddening up Judice’s nose, but she finds herself dealing with the counters that quickly come. Caliari rushes after a takedown, and Judice slings her to the floor defensively and hovers over her before standing up. Caliari thinks about another, but she is stonewalled and takes jabs on the nose. Justice sticks and moves, walking into a big right hand but giving Caliari a clean left down the middle and following it with a powerful knee. Caliari ties her up, but Judice turns her around and holds her there to the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Judice
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Judice
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Judice
Round 2
The flyweights bop fists to get going, where Judice is quick to fight behind her sharp jab. She targets the damaged right eye of the Brazilian with it, working on it to make it swell more with every blow. Caliari takes a body kick and tries to catch it to get a takedown, but Judice recoils her limb and keeps peppering the face with jabs and quick follow-ups. Judice slips to the left and tags Caliari in the swollen eye socket, and she is rarely missing her strikes while her volume easily triples that of her adversary. Judice is basically engaging in target practice, with Caliari offering little resistance more than a takedown shot. Judice shuts it down quickly and pushes Caliari to the wall, where she knees her in the midsection several times. Caliari races forward for a takedown, and Judice pushes her to the floor before Caliari can even go after a leg.
Caliari stands up and starts swinging, clipping “Crispy” at the end of a left hand. She fires off a low kick, and this draws a combination in response from Judice. Caliari is putting more behind her punches, while Judice is more than happy touching her, pop pop pop and she slides to the side. The thumping sounds that echo through the building are the ferocious knees that Judice is planting on the torso, and Caliari takes them flush without flinching. Judice potshots her swelling foe with ease, ducking the counters and otherwise playing matador when Caliari winds up. Judice fakes a knee and strings together a series of punches, while dancing out of the way of the inevitable counters. Judice lets go with a high kick that is blocked, and her punches fly through the guard and onto the Brazilian’s jaw. The round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Judice
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Judice
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Judice
Round 3
There is one last glove touch to commence the final frame, and Caliari is wide-eyed and aware of the oncoming fire that she is about to receive. This allows her to dodge the nastiest of what Judice hurls at her, but the sheer volume from the American makes it difficult to avoid everything. Caliari plants her feet and loops a big left hand at her foe, only for Judice to ignore it and dig a few body shots. Caliari crashes the pocket in pursuit of a takedown, and she manages to ground her foe for a second. Judice explodes to her feet and starts boxing up Caliari. The combinations flow freely from “Crispy,” who is roasting her opponent from punching range. She backs Caliari up to the fencing, practically hitting a 125-pound heavy bag at this point, and
she lines up a knee up the middle. This time, Caliari ducks down for a takedown shot, and the contact is immediate and devastating. For one wild moment, Judice channels her inner Hannibal Lecter, feasting on Caliari’s liver with some fava beans and a nice Chianti. Somewhere in the world, Jason DeLucia screams due to phantom pains from his three encounters against Bas Rutten in years past. Judice has to do little more but drive down two academic hammerfists that make Mahgoub hurry up and stop the fight.
Just like that, Judice has earned her fifth pro victory, with all five of them coming by knockout.
The Official Result
Carli Judice def. Nicolle Caliari R3 1:30 via TKO (Knee to the Body)
Angelo picks Carli Judice as the better striker who will do more damage and try to finish. He notes that Judice can be taken down but scrambles well, while Caliari is a busy grappler who can lose positions by being too aggressive. He also factors in the Louisiana commission, which may value takedowns more, but still favors Judice's striking.
Big Brady favors Carli Judice due to superior striking, higher volume, and better defense. He acknowledges Nicolle Caliari's grappling and black belt but doubts she can get takedowns or outstrike Judice. He predicts Judice cruises to a decision win if she stuffs takedowns.
The host expects Judice to manage distance, utilize volume and output, and pick apart Caliari from distance en route to a decision victory. This suggests a clear confidence in Judice's ability to control the fight and win on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Carli Judice based on a common opponent comparison with Carrier Kate. He notes that Carrier Kate clearly beat Nicolle Caliari but was robbed by the judges, while Judice arguably beat Carrier Kate on the Contender Series. He also highlights Judice's height and reach advantages (5'7" vs 5'3", 68" vs 62" reach) and believes she will be better at dealing with Caliari's takedowns. He expects Judice to win by decision or TKO, citing her momentum from a headkick KO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yuneisy Duben | 0 | 14 of 41 | 34% | 14 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carli Judice | 1 | 17 of 43 | 39% | 19 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yuneisy Duben | 0 | 14 of 41 | 34% | 14 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carli Judice | 1 | 17 of 43 | 39% | 19 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yuneisy Duben | 14 of 41 | 34% | 8 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 9 | 14 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carli Judice | 17 of 43 | 39% | 12 of 34 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yuneisy Duben | 14 of 41 | 34% | 8 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 9 | 14 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carli Judice | 17 of 43 | 39% | 12 of 34 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Judice (-380), Duben (+300)
Round 1
Of all the fight cards the UFC has ever held, UFC Fight Night 254 is certainly one of them. With 10 of the 26 combatants sporting UFC records above .500, this could be one of those shows where the cut list will reach five or more players. We kick things off in the women’s flyweight division with one of those types of matches where a fighter has their back against the wall. Unbeaten Venezuelan Duben (6-0, 1 NC; 0-0 UFC) may have a bit of a gaudy record, but her first five wins came against ladies with a combined record of 0-0 (and a no contest). Standing in her way with a lot on the line will be Judice (3-2, 0-1 UFC), who earned her spot on the roster with a
loss
on the Contender Series. Fists are soon to fly, and before they do, referee Mark Smith checks them in. There is a quick fist bump that precedes the action. Judice takes to the center of the cage, and Duben walks right towards her and kicks her several times on the lead leg. Judice jabs her way out of an engagement, and she snaps up a question mark kick that surprises her opponent. The Venezuelan plants her feet and throws hands, and when she scores, she circles away. Judice plants her fist on her foe’s face, and she appears more technical than Duben as her strikes are straight while Duben’s are winging and a bit sloppy. Judice cracks Duben with a straight punch combo, and she makes Duben bounce off the fencing. Duben responds with a spinning back fist, and Judice blocks the worst of it and comes out swinging. Duben ricochets off the wall again, and she punches her way out of a tough situation. Judice resets, and she marches the newcomer down and chambers her left leg.
Her shin smashes square into the chin, and Duben goes down on her side in a heap. A few follow-up punches from “Crispy” are merely academic, as Smith is rushing in between them to stop the fight.
This is a heck of a way to start the night, with Duben ejected violently out of the ranks of the unbeaten while Judice concludes her losing streak with a bang. Headkicks MMA is her team, and she represented it well with that performance.
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The Official Result
Carli Judice
def.
Yuneisy Duben
R1 1:40 via TKO (Head Kick and Punches)
Angelo picks Yuneisy Duben over Carli Judice. He acknowledges Judice is technically better but Duben's chaotic aggression and finishing ability sway him. He is concerned about Duben's cardio since she has never gone to a decision. He suggests an under bet as a possibility.
Big Brady picks Carli Judice over Yuneisy Duben. He notes that Duben's level of competition is extremely low, with her opponents having almost no wins combined, and that her only notable win was a huge upset on the Contender Series where she was a +1000 underdog. In contrast, Judice's two UFC losses were competitive against solid fighters like Ernesta Kareckaite and Gabriella Fernandes. Brady believes Judice's volume, cardio, and top game will be too much for Duben, who has never seen a third round. He predicts a second-round TKO finish for Judice.
Cody does not make a clear pick for this fight, as it was added late and not discussed in detail. He mentions the fight briefly but does not give a pick.
Daniel does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses the matchup briefly but does not state a preference or bet.
The host believes Judice is the superior striker with better combinations, footwork, and range management. He expects her to set up a trap and knock out Duben within two rounds.
Paul does not make a clear pick for this fight, as it was added late and not discussed in detail. He mentions the fight briefly but does not give a pick.
The MMA Guru picks Yuneisy Duben as an underdog, citing her undefeated record (6-0), training with Rosam Unas and Miranda Maverick, and her power to knock people out. He notes Carli Judice is rangy but lacks power in her punches, comparing her striking to early Yan Xiaonan but not at that level. He also mentions Duben's nasty KO win on the Contender Series and that she was sick three days before that fight, showing resilience. He admits he also picks her because she's attractive, but emphasizes she's well-rounded and dangerous.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriella Fernandes | 0 | 169 of 323 | 52% | 186 of 345 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:04 |
| Carli Judice | 0 | 119 of 234 | 50% | 126 of 245 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:40 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gabriella Fernandes | 0 | 63 of 143 | 44% | 64 of 144 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carli Judice | 0 | 43 of 91 | 47% | 44 of 92 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 | |
| 2 | Gabriella Fernandes | 0 | 27 of 51 | 52% | 40 of 69 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
| Carli Judice | 0 | 41 of 67 | 61% | 45 of 73 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:52 | |
| 3 | Gabriella Fernandes | 0 | 79 of 129 | 61% | 82 of 132 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Carli Judice | 0 | 35 of 76 | 46% | 37 of 80 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriella Fernandes | 169 of 323 | 52% | 110 of 251 | 42 of 55 | 17 of 17 | 149 of 297 | 20 of 26 | 0 of 0 |
| Carli Judice | 119 of 234 | 50% | 89 of 198 | 21 of 25 | 9 of 11 | 95 of 200 | 24 of 34 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gabriella Fernandes | 63 of 143 | 44% | 41 of 114 | 14 of 21 | 8 of 8 | 55 of 133 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Carli Judice | 43 of 91 | 47% | 36 of 81 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 34 of 77 | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Gabriella Fernandes | 27 of 51 | 52% | 19 of 40 | 6 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 23 of 45 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Carli Judice | 41 of 67 | 61% | 32 of 58 | 7 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 28 of 51 | 13 of 16 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Gabriella Fernandes | 79 of 129 | 61% | 50 of 97 | 22 of 25 | 7 of 7 | 71 of 119 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Carli Judice | 35 of 76 | 46% | 21 of 59 | 9 of 11 | 5 of 6 | 33 of 72 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Gabriella but calls it a razor-thin fight that should be 50/50. He notes Gabriella is a powerful, technical striker but has poor takedown defense, though Carli is not a wrestler. He thinks Carli's volume and forward pressure could be effective, but Gabriella's power and experience should prevail. He advises caution after last week's underdog women wins.
Cody picks Gabriella Fernandes, arguing that she has been matched against wrestlers and spent most of her fights on her back, but against Judice, who is a brawler, she will have a chance to strike. He notes that Fernandes has cleaner striking and more power, while Judice has volume but may tire. Cody expects a competitive fight and thinks Fernandes can win a decision.
Daniel Vreeland picks Gabriella Fernandes, noting her physicality and knockout power. He acknowledges her weakness against wrestlers but believes Carli Judice is not a takedown threat. He expects Fernandes to have the bigger moments and win a decision, while Judice may outland in volume but lacks impact.
Jacob picks Gabriella, believing this fight is tailor-made for her as a striker against someone who won't shoot takedowns. He notes Carli showed toughness in her Contender Series fight but is inexperienced. He thinks Gabriella is the cleaner, more powerful striker and should win, though Carli could steal a round.
Fernandes' power, explosiveness, and physicality will be the difference in the striking realm. Both have holes in grappling, but the fight will stay standing and Fernandes will land more damage to get the victory.
Paul picks Judice by default (CF do - 'when in doubt, CF do'), but admits he has no strong opinion. He notes that Judice showed high volume in her Contender Series fight and that Fernandes has not faced a volume striker. However, he is not confident and calls it a pass.
The MMA Guru struggles with this pick, admitting he did research but can't remember details. He notes Carli Judice is younger (25) and has a reach advantage (68 inches vs 66), and that she had a great war on the Contender Series. He mentions Gabriella Fernandes has no takedowns in her career and is 30, but his reasoning is flimsy and he ultimately picks Judice almost arbitrarily.
Expert Picks (7)
Angelo picks Yuneisy Duben over Carli Judice. He acknowledges Judice is technically better but Duben's chaotic aggression and finishing ability sway him. He is concerned about Duben's cardio since she has never gone to a decision. He suggests an under bet as a possibility.
Big Brady picks Carli Judice over Yuneisy Duben. He notes that Duben's level of competition is extremely low, with her opponents having almost no wins combined, and that her only notable win was a huge upset on the Contender Series where she was a +1000 underdog. In contrast, Judice's two UFC losses were competitive against solid fighters like Ernesta Kareckaite and Gabriella Fernandes. Brady believes Judice's volume, cardio, and top game will be too much for Duben, who has never seen a third round. He predicts a second-round TKO finish for Judice.
Cody does not make a clear pick for this fight, as it was added late and not discussed in detail. He mentions the fight briefly but does not give a pick.
Daniel does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses the matchup briefly but does not state a preference or bet.
The host believes Judice is the superior striker with better combinations, footwork, and range management. He expects her to set up a trap and knock out Duben within two rounds.
Paul does not make a clear pick for this fight, as it was added late and not discussed in detail. He mentions the fight briefly but does not give a pick.
The MMA Guru picks Yuneisy Duben as an underdog, citing her undefeated record (6-0), training with Rosam Unas and Miranda Maverick, and her power to knock people out. He notes Carli Judice is rangy but lacks power in her punches, comparing her striking to early Yan Xiaonan but not at that level. He also mentions Duben's nasty KO win on the Contender Series and that she was sick three days before that fight, showing resilience. He admits he also picks her because she's attractive, but emphasizes she's well-rounded and dangerous.
Duben is a bad striker