UFC on ESPN: Reyes vs. Prochazka

Big Brady picks Dominick Reyes to win by first-round knockout, taking the underdog. He criticizes Procházka's striking defense, noting that he was tagged multiple times by Volkan Oezdemir and fights with his hands down. Brady believes Reyes is motivated after a bad loss and has the power to exploit Procházka's defensive flaws. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds, expecting an early finish. He acknowledges that both can knock each other out but favors Reyes due to Procházka's recklessness.

Cody is a huge Jiří Procházka fan and has backed him before. He notes that Procházka comes out berserk and is always looking to bet the under on his fights. He believes Procházka will bomb rush Reyes and win the early rounds, and questions Reyes' durability after being flatlined by Jan Błachowicz. He also mentions that Reyes' output falls off in later rounds, which favors Procházka's aggressive style. However, he acknowledges that if Reyes survives the early onslaught, the fight could turn in his favor in a five-round fight.

Daniel Levi picks Jiří Procházka to win, citing Procházka's high confidence, unique style, and toughness. He notes that Reyes is a point fighter who may be mentally deflated after the Jones fight and lacks one-punch power. Levi believes Procházka's offensive arsenal and ability to recover from adversity will be the difference.

The host picks Jiří Procházka by KO, citing his power and unorthodox style. He notes that Reyes is more technical but has shown durability issues and a tendency to fade. He expects Procházka's constant pressure to eventually overwhelm Reyes and get a finish in the second round.

Paul has backed Dominick Reyes in every fight but was let down in the Jan fight. He thinks Reyes' best performance was against Jon Jones, but that might be due to Jones fighting down to his level. He notes that Reyes has low output outside of that fight and that Procházka's aggression could exploit Reyes' potential chin issues. He leans toward Procházka but is not confident, saying the fight could go either way. He also mentions he'd rather bet under 2.5 rounds if available.

The MMA Guru picks Jiří Procházka to win by second-round TKO over Dominick Reyes. He notes that Reyes is coming off a broken nose and rib, and that Procházka's awkward movement and power could break Reyes' nose early. He believes Procházka has momentum and a reach advantage, and that Reyes may not have improved enough. He also mentions that if Reyes wins, it will likely be by head kick.

Big Brady picks Giga Chikadze to win a close decision, but he is hesitant and hates the line. He acknowledges Chikadze's improvements, especially in takedown defense and striking output, as seen in the Morales fight. However, he notes that Swanson is durable and on a roll, and that Chikadze has been taken down in the past. Brady thinks the line should be closer and that Swanson could be live if he wrestles more, but he ultimately goes with Chikadze's flashier strikes.

Cody sees Cub Swanson as a live underdog with many variables in his favor: savvy veteran experience, ground game advantage, and a history of performing well as an underdog. He notes that Swanson has a BJJ black belt and wrestling advantage, and that Giga has not faced a grappler who actually uses their ground game. However, he is concerned that Giga is tall for the division and a tricky striker, and that Swanson needs to use his wrestling to win. He labels this a 'dogger pass' situation and mentions DraftKings still has +160 available.

Daniel Levi picks Giga Chikadze to win, emphasizing that Chikadze is a superior striker with better range and footwork. He believes Cub Swanson's style of swinging big hooks plays into Chikadze's straight shots down the middle. Levi also notes that Swanson's recent win over Pineda is overrated and that Chikadze's cardio held up in his last fight.

The host picks Giga Chikadze by decision, citing his striking advantage and reach. He expects Giga to fight safe and outpoint Swanson, who may look for takedowns. He notes that Swanson is a veteran but believes Giga's kicking game will be too much.

Paul does not have a strong lean on this fight. He notes that Giga has been given favorable matchups and that Swanson has the ground game advantage, but he is not confident enough to make a pick. He mentions that the action is coming in on Swanson and that he can understand why, but he doesn't commit to a side.

The MMA Guru picks Giga Chikadze over Cub Swanson, citing Chikadze's size advantage, reach, and improving MMA skills. He notes that Swanson is a natural bantamweight and took damage in his last fight against Daniel Pineda. He predicts Chikadze will chop at Swanson's legs and jab his way to a 30-27 unanimous decision.

Big Brady picks Ion Cuțelaba to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Cuțelaba has faced tough competition and has good takedown accuracy, while Jacoby is coming in on short notice and had a close fight with Maxim Grisham. Brady expects the fight to end early, likely by Cuțelaba's ground-and-pound. He mentions that both fighters have cardio concerns, but Cuțelaba's takedown game will be key.

Cody believes Cuțelaba has the wrestling and grappling advantage, and that Jacoby's cardio is not good either. He notes that if Cuțelaba makes it an MMA fight and uses his grappling, he can land big bombs and toss Jacoby to the ground. He points out that Jacoby's path to victory is striking, but Cuțelaba can exploit his grappling deficiency. He gives Cuțelaba the benefit of the doubt at 27 years old, while Jacoby is 33 and not making vast improvements.

Daniel Levi picks Dustin Jacoby to win, reasoning that Cuțelaba is a front-runner who gasses after the first round. He notes Jacoby's kickboxing background and ability to weather the early storm. Levi also mentions that Cuțelaba's wrestling is rarely used and that Jacoby's experience against elite kickboxers gives him an edge in later rounds.

The host picks Ion Cuțelaba by KO, expecting him to use his wrestling to take Jacoby down and finish with ground and pound. He notes Jacoby's poor cardio and recent performance against Maxim Grishin. He likes the over 1.5 rounds as well.

Paul agrees with Cody that Cuțelaba is the rightful favorite. He notes that Cuțelaba is aggressive, throws heat, and has decent wrestling, but his cardio is poor. However, Jacoby's cardio is also not good. He thinks Cuțelaba can use his grappling to win, and that Jacoby's wrestling deficiency is well-known. He mentions that the line is close to even money and his heart leans toward Cuțelaba.

The MMA Guru picks Ion Cuțelaba to win by first-round TKO over Dustin Jacoby. He believes Cuțelaba is not just a brawler but has good grappling, as shown in his fight against Khalil Rountree. He notes that Jacoby is a stand-up fighter who relies on leg kicks, which could be dangerous against a grappler. He also mentions that Jacoby is taking the fight on short notice.

Big Brady picks Sean Strickland to win by comfortable decision. He praises Strickland's boxing, volume, and takedown defense, noting that Jotko's low output will be a disadvantage. Brady believes Strickland is the better fighter everywhere and that Jotko's takedown attempts will be stuffed. He mentions that Strickland's losses are to elite competition, while Jotko has been knocked out by lesser fighters. A knockout would not surprise him.

Cody is high on Sean Strickland since his return from injury. He notes that Strickland shook off rust in the Jack Marshman fight and then looked even better against Brendan Allen, landing 94 significant strikes before a knockout. He praises Strickland's takedown defense (81% career, not taken down in 4 years) and his sharp jab. He thinks Jotko will try to grapple but Strickland's training at Dan Henderson's gym will help him keep it standing and butcher Jotko on the feet. However, he acknowledges the -260 price tag is too high for a top ticket play.

Daniel Levi picks Sean Strickland to win, citing his higher output, better boxing, and renewed confidence since moving to middleweight. He acknowledges Jotko's footwork and point-fighting style but believes Strickland's volume and pressure will be decisive. Levi also notes that the line is wide but still favors Strickland.

The host picks Sean Strickland by decision, expecting him to out-strike Jotko and stuff takedowns. He notes Jotko's recent losses by finish and his tendency to grind, but believes Strickland's striking and takedown defense will prevail. He also mentions a possible TKO.

Paul likes Strickland to win but is not excited about the -260 price. He agrees with Cody's assessment of Strickland's improvements and takedown defense. He thinks Jotko is serviceable but slowing down, and that Strickland's striking will be too much. He notes that Jotko's durability seems to be an issue and he is more tentative now, relying on grappling. Paul sees Strickland as the better fighter but the odds are prohibitive.

The MMA Guru picks Sean Strickland to win by second-round TKO over Krzysztof Jotko. He praises Strickland's takedown defense and boxing, noting that no one has taken him down since Kamaru Usman in 2017. He believes Jotko's chin is suspect and that Strickland will piece him up on the feet, eventually finishing him.

Big Brady picks Merab Dvalishvili to win by decision. He highlights Merab's relentless pace, pressure, and takedown volume, even if he can't hold opponents down. He believes Merab will wear Stamann down with constant takedown attempts and cage pressure. Brady notes that both fighters are not finishers, so he expects the fight to go to decision. He also suggests Merab by decision as a parlay piece.

Cody is intrigued by Cody Stamann as an underdog. He notes that Merab's takedowns are often stuffed by better competition, as seen in the John Dodson fight (2 for 20). He thinks Stamann has the better striking and can stuff takedowns, making it a close competitive fight. He also mentions that Merab's main training partner Aljamain Sterling is out with surgery, which could affect his preparation. He acknowledges the sweat because Merab's grinding style is tough to bet against, but at +215 he finds it generous enough.

Daniel Levi picks Merab Dvalishvili to win, emphasizing his relentless pressure, takedown volume, and improved striking. He notes that Stamann is solid but tends to be a point fighter who may be outworked. Levi believes Dvalishvili's aggression and cardio will lead to a decision win.

The host picks Merab Dvalishvili by decision, citing his relentless pace and takedown volume. He notes that Stamann is a good wrestler but expects Dvalishvili's motor to be too much. He believes the fight goes the distance and Dvalishvili wins on volume.

Paul is leaning toward Merab, noting that he has made tons of improvements and is a grinding machine. He acknowledges that Stamann is a better striker and has decent wrestling, but Merab's relentless takedown pace could overwhelm him. He mentions that Merab's takedown numbers are impressive (11-13 per fight) and that even if Stamann gets up, Merab will drag him back down. However, he is not convinced Merab can dominate wrestling exchanges against Stamann, and he prefers the 'Merab by decision' prop at -125.

The MMA Guru picks Merab Dvalishvili over Cody Stamann, citing Dvalishvili's superior grappling and pace. He notes that Dvalishvili controlled John Dodson, who has great takedown defense, and that Stamann has struggled in grappling exchanges. He predicts Dvalishvili will win a 29-28 unanimous decision, with Stamann possibly winning the first round on strikes but Dvalishvili taking over in the later rounds.

Big Brady picks Luana Pinheiro to win by decision, but expresses hesitation about betting on Contender Series fighters, especially in women's MMA. He likes Pinheiro's aggression, power, and ability to take the fight down, noting Markos's poor takedown defense. However, he acknowledges that Contender Series favorites often fail to cover the price tag. He ultimately picks Pinheiro but says he won't bet on it.

Cody thinks Pinheiro is a strong prospect with hands and a judo background, training at ATT with her boyfriend Matheus Nicolau. He notes that Randa Markos has lost three in a row and seems to be on a downswing, possibly thinking about retirement. He believes Pinheiro can exploit Markos in many areas and that -170 is a fair price. However, he has low confidence due to the unpredictability of women's MMA and the veteran vs. debutant dynamic.

Daniel Levi picks Luana Pinheiro to win, citing her finishing ability and jiu-jitsu credentials. He acknowledges the risk of a debut egg but believes Randa Markos is declining mentally and physically. Levi notes that Pinheiro's path to victory is takedowns and top control, as Markos has been dominated on the ground recently.

The host picks Randa Markos as an underdog, citing her experience and durability. He questions Pinheiro's cardio since all her wins are first-round finishes on the regional scene. He expects Markos to take the fight into deeper waters and grind out a decision.

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Markos has seen better days and is on a losing streak. He points out that Markos has never won back-to-back fights in the UFC and is getting older. He thinks Pinheiro is a natural finisher with good grappling and striking, and that she looks strong for 115 pounds. He believes Pinheiro can exploit Markos' telegraphing and suspect wrestling. He agrees that -170 is fair but has low confidence due to the level of competition.

The MMA Guru picks Luana Pinheiro over Randa Markos, expressing frustration with Markos' poor decision-making and lack of effort. He highlights Pinheiro's power and finishing ability, noting she has first-round finishes in her recent fights. He predicts Pinheiro will win by first-round finish, either by submission or KO.

Big Brady picks T.J. Brown to win by decision, taking a shot on the underdog. He believes Brown's wrestling and grappling are superior, and that Brown can take Kamaka down and wear him out. Brady notes that Kamaka slows down as fights progress and has poor grappling off his back. He also mentions Brown's full training camp at Glory MMA with James Krause, which he sees as a positive. Brady thinks the line should be closer to a pick'em.

Cody sees T.J. Brown as a live underdog now that he is training with James Krause at Glory MMA. He notes that Brown has a submission game and grappling prowess, but his cardio is a major concern. He thinks if Brown uses a proper game plan and doesn't gas out, he can take down Kamaka and submit him. He points out that Kamaka has looked unimpressive, with losses to low-level opponents and a close win over Tony Kelley. He believes Krause's coaching can help Brown manage his energy and fight smart.

Daniel Levi picks Kai Kamaka III to win, citing his potential as a prospect and the fact that T.J. Brown has a weak chin and poor fight IQ. He notes that Kamaka's last loss was on short notice with a bad weight cut, and that he has since moved to a better training camp. Levi believes Kamaka can outwork Brown if he stays off his back.

The host picks T.J. Brown by submission, expecting him to take down Kai Kamaka and wear him out. He notes Kamaka's poor cardio and lack of power, while Brown is a grappler who can chain wrestle. He believes Brown will eventually find a submission in the second or third round.

Paul does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses both fighters' cardio issues and the difficulty in capping the fight. He mentions that Brown's game falls apart if he doesn't finish early, and that Kamaka has looked poor. He does not commit to a side.

The MMA Guru picks Kai Kamaka III over T.J. Brown, noting that Kamaka is younger and more committed to his career, while Brown has been beaten eight times and seems to be Bryce Mitchell's sparring partner. He expects Brown to get takedowns in the first round but fade in the later rounds, allowing Kamaka to win the last two rounds and take a 29-28 decision.

Big Brady picks Poliana Botelho to win by decision. He notes that Botelho is better everywhere except in the clinch, where Carolina is dangerous. He believes Botelho can mix in takedowns and smother Carolina on top. Brady mentions that Carolina is hittable at range and has poor striking defense. He would have bet the opener at -185 but passes at -225.

Cody picks Poliana Botelho, noting that she is only 27 and training at American Top Team, which should lead to improvements. He points out that her losses are to top-level fighters like Jillian Robertson and Cynthia Calvillo, while Luana Carolina has shown poor strength and grappling. He mentions a video of Carolina struggling to do push-ups and being easily taken down by Ariane Lipski. He expects Botelho to have the grappling advantage and to take Carolina down and control her. However, he dislikes the -220 price tag.

Daniel Levi picks Luana Carolina to win, citing her volume striking and Botelho's poor cardio. He notes that Botelho tends to gas after the first round (the 'Nova' phenomenon) and that Carolina can outwork her down the stretch. Levi also mentions that Botelho's takedowns are a threat but believes Carolina can avoid them and win a decision.

The host picks Poliana Botelho by decision, expecting her heavier shots to outscore Carolina's volume. He notes Carolina's questionable cardio and poor grappling, and that Botelho has takedown ability. He also mentions a possible TKO at +650.

Paul agrees with Cody, stating that Botelho should get the job done. He notes that Carolina is a Muay Thai fighter with volume but lacks physical strength and grappling. He thinks Botelho's training with Colby Covington (though not directly) and at ATT will help her implement a game plan to take the fight to the ground. He expects Botelho to be a better version of herself and get the win, but again the price is too high to bet.

The MMA Guru picks Luana Carolina as an underdog over Poliana Botelho, though he admits it's a worrying pick. He notes that Botelho is aging and looked poor in her last fight against Juliana Robertson, while Carolina is younger and has a longer reach. He expects Carolina to win a decision, but he is not very confident.

Big Brady picks Loma Lookboonmee to win by decision. He highlights Loma's dangerous clinch work with elbows and knees, and notes that Sam Hughes is very hittable and invites the clinch, which plays into Loma's strengths. Brady acknowledges Loma's size disadvantage but believes her striking is levels above Hughes. He mentions that Hughes needs takedowns to win, but Loma's takedown defense and get-up game are improving.

Cody is confident in Loma Lookboonmee, noting her extensive Muay Thai experience and excellent clinch game. He points out that she was competitive against Angela Hill, which counts for something. He thinks Sam Hughes looked amateurish in her debut against Tecia Torres and showed a lack of heart when she quit due to a cut. He believes Loma has the advantage in striking and clinch, and even if Hughes takes her down, she won't do it for 15 minutes. However, he dislikes the -375 price and would normally bet Loma by decision, but worries about a cut stoppage.

Daniel Levi picks Loma Lookboonmee to win, emphasizing her technical Muay Thai and the fact that Sam Hughes does not belong at this level. He notes that Hughes was finished quickly by Tecia Torres and submitted by Vanessa Demopoulos, while Lookboonmee has shown promise against tougher competition. Levi believes Lookboonmee will dominate on the feet.

The host picks Loma Lookboonmee by decision, citing her superior Muay Thai striking and clinch work. He notes that Sam Hughes is still green and that Loma has been working on her takedown defense and strength. He expects Loma to dominate on the feet and win a clear decision.

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Loma is a Thai fighter with tons of experience and a good clinch. He mentions that Sam Hughes quit in her debut and has a history of blowing leads. He thinks Loma's striking and clinch will be too much, and that Hughes' cardio is suspect. He also notes that Loma has been working on takedown defense. He picks Loma but does not love the price.

The MMA Guru picks Loma Lookboonmee over Sam Hughes, citing Lookboonmee's solid Muay Thai skills and takedown defense. He notes that Lookboonmee almost beat Angela Hill, which shows she is a decent MMA fighter. He expects Hughes to come out aggressively in the first round but predicts Lookboonmee will win a unanimous decision, 30-27, with the first round being close and the later rounds more dominant.

Big Brady picks Andreas Michailidis to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Michailidis is a dangerous finisher with 91% of wins by finish, while Bhullar looked terrible in his UFC debut with poor striking defense. Brady likes the under 2.5 rounds as a bet, expecting violence in the small cage. He mentions Bhullar's unknown factor but believes Michailidis's experience and finishing ability will prevail.

Cody picks Michailidis, noting that he looked okay in his debut despite a controversial stoppage. He points out that Bhullar is a thinking man who took a five-year layoff after seeing a teammate get hurt, and that he was starched by a jab from Tom Breese. He thinks Michailidis has better striking and grappling, and that Bhullar lacks the power to put him away. He expects Michailidis to chew him up from the outside. However, he dislikes the -230 price and notes that Michailidis is moving down from 205, so he advises watching the weigh-ins.

Daniel Levi picks Andreas Michailidis to win, citing his size, technique, and the fact that KB Bhullar is not UFC caliber. He acknowledges Michailidis's front-running style and tendency to fade, but believes Bhullar is an opponent he can style on. Levi also notes that Bhullar's only win was against a low-level opponent.

The host picks Michailidis, citing his aggressive style and better level of competition. He notes that Bhullar's only UFC fight was a loss to Tom Breese, and that Michailidis has shown ability to close distance and land shots. He expects Michailidis to break Bhullar and finish him in the second round.

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Bhullar's layoff and lack of high-level competition are concerns. He mentions that Bhullar got knocked out by a jab in his UFC debut. He thinks Michailidis has a grappling background and has improved his striking. He expects Michailidis to win but does not love the price. He also notes that Michailidis is dropping from 205 to 185, which could be a factor.

The MMA Guru picks Andreas Michailidis over KB Bhullar, expressing distrust in Bhullar's record and performance after his first-round TKO loss to Tom Breese. He notes that Michailidis' loss to Modestas Bukauskas was controversial due to illegal strikes and a strange stoppage, and he trusts Michailidis' resume and ability. He predicts Michailidis will win a unanimous decision by grinding against the cage and winning striking exchanges.

Big Brady picks Felipe Colares to win by submission in the third round. He notes that Luke Sanders is unreliable, often looking good before making a mistake and getting submitted, as seen in three of his four losses. Colares is a black belt in BJJ with excellent toughness and cardio, and Brady believes he can take Sanders down and exploit his questionable fight IQ. He also mentions Colares's youth and training camp shape as factors.

Cody picks Luke Sanders despite his history of blowing fights. He notes that Sanders has the skills: better striker and much better wrestler. He points out that Colares has poor takedown defense (34%) and low striking output (21, 23, 7 strikes in his three UFC fights). He thinks Sanders can march him down, beat him up, and cruise to a decision. However, he acknowledges that Sanders is untrustworthy and could do something stupid. He also mentions he bet under 2.5 rounds at +145, expecting Sanders to either finish or get finished.

Daniel Levi picks Felipe Colares to win by submission, specifically a guillotine choke in the second round. He notes that Luke Sanders tends to dominate fights but then gets caught in submissions or knocked out. Levi believes Sanders will dominate early but eventually get caught in a guillotine.

The host leans towards Colares due to Luke Sanders' tendency to make boneheaded mistakes and get caught. He notes that Colares has shown solid jiu-jitsu and durability, and he expects Sanders to have a 'banana peel moment' where he slips up. However, he is not confident, calling it a head-scratcher.

Paul picks Sanders, noting that the skills are there and the price is rare for Sanders. He mentions that Colares has a cast-iron chin and has never been knocked out, but his output is very low. He thinks Sanders can win a decision if he fights smart, but he is always worried about Sanders making a mistake. He also suggests live betting Colares after the first round if Sanders doesn't finish him, as Colares' durability could pay off.

The MMA Guru picks Felipe Colares over Luke Sanders, citing Sanders' recent poor performance and chin issues. He notes that Sanders took the fight on short notice and that Colares is the bigger fighter with a granite chin, having survived a beating from Montel Jackson. He predicts Colares will win a unanimous decision, 30-27, by jabbing and kicking from the outside, as Sanders is timid and unlikely to engage in a brawl.