Career Averages - T.J. Brown
Career Averages - Kai Kamaka III
T.J. Brown
Kai Kamaka III
T.J. Brown - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Elkins | 0 | 11 of 33 | 33% | 95 of 146 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 2 | 1 | 8:09 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 15 of 50 | 30% | 45 of 86 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 1:29 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Darren Elkins | 0 | 2 of 11 | 18% | 53 of 80 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:32 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 11 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:37 | |
| 2 | Darren Elkins | 0 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 28 of 43 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 1 | 2:49 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 9 of 29 | 31% | 32 of 53 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 0:44 | |
| 3 | Darren Elkins | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 14 of 23 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1:48 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Elkins | 11 of 33 | 33% | 8 of 29 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 11 of 32 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| T.J. Brown | 15 of 50 | 30% | 11 of 45 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 15 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Darren Elkins | 2 of 11 | 18% | 2 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| T.J. Brown | 4 of 13 | 30% | 2 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Darren Elkins | 7 of 16 | 43% | 4 of 13 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| T.J. Brown | 9 of 29 | 31% | 7 of 26 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 3 | Darren Elkins | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| T.J. Brown | 2 of 8 | 25% | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo leans T.J. Brown despite his suspect takedown defense and chin, because he believes Brown's pressure and grappling will be enough to outwork the aging Elkins. He notes Brown has never been knocked out and expects him to win, but he wants to wait for the line to tighten before betting.
Big Brady picks Darren Elkins for the upset by third-round finish. He notes T.J. Brown has poor fight IQ and takedown defense, and often makes mistakes. He worries about Elkins' age and recent injuries but expects Brown to gas out or make a mistake, allowing Elkins to take over late.
Cody picks Elkins, arguing that Brown has a history of losing when favored and that Elkins finds ways to win. He notes that Brown fades in later rounds and has poor takedown defense, while Elkins has a grinding style and excellent cardio. Cody believes Elkins can take Brown down and wear him out, especially after the first round.
The host picks T.J. Brown to win inside the distance, expecting him to bite down on his mouthpiece and land big shots early. He notes Brown's speed and power advantage over the aging Elkins, and suggests avoiding the moneyline in favor of the plus money prop. He predicts a first-round stoppage.
Paul picks Elkins, citing his toughness and ability to grind out wins. He notes that Brown has a fast start but fades, and that Elkins has fought much tougher competition. Paul believes Elkins' wrestling and cardio will be too much for Brown, and that Elkins can survive the early storm and take over.
The MMA Guru picks T.J. Brown over Darren Elkins. He praises Brown's performance against Bill Algeo despite the loss, and notes Brown trains with Bryce Mitchell in grappling, so he won't be outwrestled. He criticizes Elkins as a geriatric old man at 39 who has taken too much damage, citing his loss to Jonathan Pearce. He believes Brown is in his prime and can go three hard rounds, winning by decision or big shots.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Algeo | 1 | 64 of 110 | 58% | 77 of 123 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:42 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 46 of 91 | 50% | 49 of 94 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 0:39 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bill Algeo | 0 | 45 of 85 | 52% | 48 of 88 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:03 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 39 of 77 | 50% | 42 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:19 | |
| 2 | Bill Algeo | 1 | 19 of 25 | 76% | 29 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:39 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 7 of 14 | 50% | 7 of 14 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Algeo | 64 of 110 | 58% | 44 of 81 | 6 of 13 | 14 of 16 | 48 of 94 | 5 of 5 | 11 of 11 |
| T.J. Brown | 46 of 91 | 50% | 34 of 78 | 8 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 33 of 76 | 13 of 15 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bill Algeo | 45 of 85 | 52% | 26 of 59 | 6 of 12 | 13 of 14 | 43 of 83 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| T.J. Brown | 39 of 77 | 50% | 28 of 65 | 8 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 27 of 64 | 12 of 13 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Bill Algeo | 19 of 25 | 76% | 18 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 11 |
| T.J. Brown | 7 of 14 | 50% | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 12 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks T.J. Brown as an underdog, citing his high pace, solid striking, and good grappling with almost 4 takedowns per fight. He notes Algeo's takedown defense is poor (38%) and that Algeo doesn't use his wrestling offensively. He expects Brown to get takedowns, set the pace, and win a decision. He has a quarter-unit bet on Brown at +140.
Big Brady picks Bill Algeo to win by submission in the second or third round. He notes Algeo's poor takedown defense but excellent get-up game and scrambling. He expects Brown to have early success with takedowns but tire, allowing Algeo to take over and potentially submit him, as Brown has been submitted before.
Cody notes Algeo's takedown defense is poor (55%) but his cardio and BJJ are excellent. He expects Brown to get early takedowns but fade, allowing Algeo to take over with volume. He sees Algeo winning by decision or late stoppage.
Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Algeo's strong start doesn't walk him into danger and that Algeo's pressure and range control will allow him to rack up damage early. He also mentions Algeo's height advantage and active kicking game.
Algeo's unorthodox striking and scrambling ability will be too much for Brown. Brown's path to victory is grappling, but Algeo is hard to hold down and creates scrambles. Algeo's cardio and striking volume should win rounds. Expect a decision, as both are durable and finishes are unlikely.
Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing Algeo's cardio and Jiu-Jitsu. He thinks Brown's wrestling will be effective early but he'll tire, and Algeo will take over in later rounds.
The MMA Guru picks Bill Algeo, citing his unorthodox striking, length, and takedown defense (55%). He believes Algeo will keep the fight standing and outpoint Brown, who relies on wrestling. He notes Brown's recent win over Eric Silva but thinks Algeo's tricky style and output will edge a close fight.
Zane picks Algeo because he starts strong and puts too much information into TJ Brown's computer for him to adjust in time. He notes Algeo's hyper-aggressive style, good kicking game, and height advantage, and believes Brown's slow starts will cost him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 24 of 38 | 63% | 82 of 109 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 1 | 2 | 9:43 |
| Erik Silva | 0 | 21 of 29 | 72% | 32 of 42 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 1 | 2:35 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | T.J. Brown | 0 | 10 of 14 | 71% | 21 of 29 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 1 | 3:01 |
| Erik Silva | 0 | 9 of 11 | 81% | 14 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 1:35 | |
| 2 | T.J. Brown | 0 | 7 of 14 | 50% | 36 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 3:14 |
| Erik Silva | 0 | 10 of 15 | 66% | 14 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:00 | |
| 3 | T.J. Brown | 0 | 7 of 10 | 70% | 25 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:28 |
| Erik Silva | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 4 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Brown | 24 of 38 | 63% | 20 of 33 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 25 | 6 of 7 | 5 of 6 |
| Erik Silva | 21 of 29 | 72% | 12 of 19 | 6 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 20 | 7 of 7 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | T.J. Brown | 10 of 14 | 71% | 8 of 11 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 8 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Erik Silva | 9 of 11 | 81% | 5 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | T.J. Brown | 7 of 14 | 50% | 6 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Erik Silva | 10 of 15 | 66% | 6 of 10 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | |
| 3 | T.J. Brown | 7 of 10 | 70% | 6 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 6 |
| Erik Silva | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Erik Silva because he believes Silva's grappling pressure and control will be too much for T.J. Brown. He notes that Brown has poor takedown defense (41%) and makes poor decisions in fights, creating scrambles he can't win. Silva is an aggressive grappler who marches forward and looks to get the fight to the ground, where he controls opponents. Angelo expects Silva to bully Brown and win via control.
Big Brady picks Erik Silva, citing Silva's impressive grappling and ground-and-pound, while criticizing T.J. Brown's poor fight IQ and lackluster performances. He notes Silva has faced weaker competition but Brown has been knocked out and submitted multiple times. He expects Silva to catch Brown in a submission in the second round, but admits he is not very confident.
Cody leans Silva, citing his explosiveness and power. He notes Brown's cardio and durability issues, and that Brown may tire himself out with takedowns. He thinks Silva can exploit Brown's low hands and lack of head movement. He suggests under 1.5 rounds as a prop.
Daniel Levi picks Erik Silva, despite Silva's untested competition. He criticizes T.J. Brown for being prone to getting dropped and submitted, calling him 'not the brightest.' Levi likes Silva's size, ground-and-pound, elbows, and kicks. He notes Silva has been past the first round before. While he wishes he knew more about Silva, he trusts him over Brown, who he says will likely get dropped and choked out.
Lock favors T.J. Brown because he is more proven and represents a step up in competition for Erik Silva. He notes that Silva has only finishes on his regional record but may falter against decent competition, showing cardio issues or being unable to handle being the nail instead of the hammer. Lock does not have a bet on it himself, as he doesn't see Brown as super reliable, but from a narrative and PredictionStrike perspective, he thinks Brown has the edge.
Paul leans Silva, noting Brown's inconsistency and the turmoil at Glory MMA. He thinks Silva's power and explosiveness could be the difference, but acknowledges it's a coin flip. He is not confident and considers it a pass for now.
The MMA Guru picks Erik Silva over T.J. Brown, arguing that Silva is a step above bottom-level UFC featherweights and has shown good potential. He criticizes Brown for only beating very low-level opponents and barely scraping by, while Silva is more experienced and has a good record. He predicts a decision win for Silva.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 1 | 47 of 79 | 59% | 86 of 121 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 0 | 2 | 7:32 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 42 of 99 | 42% | 58 of 125 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 4 | 2 | 2:54 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 1 | 22 of 42 | 52% | 30 of 50 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:17 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 24 of 49 | 48% | 29 of 55 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 3 | 0 | 0:05 | |
| 2 | Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 0 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 17 of 20 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 1 | 2:47 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 2 of 9 | 22% | 7 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:39 | |
| 3 | Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 0 | 20 of 29 | 68% | 39 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 2:28 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 16 of 41 | 39% | 22 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 2 | 1:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 47 of 79 | 59% | 41 of 73 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 5 | 32 of 61 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 16 |
| T.J. Brown | 42 of 99 | 42% | 30 of 86 | 9 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 36 of 92 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 22 of 42 | 52% | 18 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 | 17 of 37 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 |
| T.J. Brown | 24 of 49 | 48% | 15 of 39 | 6 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 20 of 45 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 5 of 8 | 62% | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 6 |
| T.J. Brown | 2 of 9 | 22% | 2 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Shayilan Nuerdanbieke | 20 of 29 | 68% | 19 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 7 |
| T.J. Brown | 16 of 41 | 39% | 13 of 38 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
Angelo picks T.J. Brown, believing he can win either the grappling or kickboxing exchanges. He notes both fighters have poor takedown defense, so the fight may come down to who shoots first. He worries about Brown's defensive wrestling but expects Brown to initiate and get takedowns, leading to a win.
Big Brady picks T.J. Brown to win by first-round submission. He believes Brown's grappling is superior and that Nuerdanbieke is one-dimensional (wrestling only) with poor takedown defense (33%) and has been submitted six times. He notes Brown's submission skills (arm triangle) and that he nearly submitted Charles Rosa. He warns that Brown's fight IQ and cardio are questionable, but expects an early submission. He calls it a bad matchup for Nuerdanbieke.
Cody thinks Brown is the better wrestler and grappler, and has a striking advantage. He notes Nuerdanbieke's poor striking and inability to finish takedowns. He expects Brown to win by decision.
Paul agrees, pointing out Nuerdanbieke's low output and poor takedown stats. He thinks Brown's pressure and striking will look better to the judges.
The host picks T.J. Brown, citing his training with Bryce Mitchell as beneficial for grappling. He believes Brown will stuff takedowns as Shayilan slows down, and win the second and third rounds via decision. He notes Shayilan's wins are not impressive and he lost clearly to Joshua Culibao.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 58 of 99 | 58% | 88 of 141 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 3 | 2 | 7:39 |
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 46 of 107 | 42% | 71 of 132 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 2:42 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | T.J. Brown | 0 | 35 of 67 | 52% | 38 of 70 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 1 | 0 | 1:36 |
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 34 of 73 | 46% | 39 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 | |
| 2 | T.J. Brown | 0 | 16 of 23 | 69% | 29 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 2 | 3:34 |
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 9 of 24 | 37% | 24 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 0:26 | |
| 3 | T.J. Brown | 0 | 7 of 9 | 77% | 21 of 28 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:29 |
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 3 of 10 | 30% | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Brown | 58 of 99 | 58% | 46 of 85 | 10 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 49 of 87 | 2 of 5 | 7 of 7 |
| Charles Rosa | 46 of 107 | 42% | 21 of 76 | 5 of 10 | 20 of 21 | 42 of 99 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | T.J. Brown | 35 of 67 | 52% | 26 of 56 | 8 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 31 of 60 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 2 |
| Charles Rosa | 34 of 73 | 46% | 14 of 49 | 5 of 9 | 15 of 15 | 34 of 72 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | T.J. Brown | 16 of 23 | 69% | 14 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
| Charles Rosa | 9 of 24 | 37% | 4 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 6 | 7 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | |
| 3 | T.J. Brown | 7 of 9 | 77% | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Charles Rosa | 3 of 10 | 30% | 3 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 |
Big Brady questions T.J. Brown's fight IQ, recalling his poor game plan against Danny Chavez. However, he notes Brown's striking improvements and training at Glory MMA with Bryce Mitchell. He thinks Brown can win if he mixes in takedowns against Benitez's 56% takedown defense, but he cannot trust Brown enough to bet him. He picks Brown as a dog pick but is not confident.
Cody leans toward Brown, citing the blueprint of taking Rosa down and holding him there. He notes Brown's wrestling should be effective. However, he is wary of Brown's low fight IQ and the short notice change. He calls -280 too risky for parlays.
Daniel Levi picks T.J. Brown, though he is uncomfortable laying -250. He notes that Brown is better than he has shown, but his chin is questionable and he gets dropped often. However, Levi believes Brown will outwork Charles Rosa, who is on short notice and has poor takedown defense. He thinks Brown's physicality and wrestling will be key, and that Rosa's best days are behind him. Levi expects Brown to win, possibly by finish.
The host picks Gabriel Benitez, praising his southpaw striking, body kicks, and leg kicks. He expects Benitez to use his technical striking to outwork T.J. Brown, who is more chaotic and less technical. The host notes Brown's power and BJJ but believes Benitez's cardio and striking accuracy will secure a decision. He compares the matchup to Brown's loss to Danny Chavez, where leg kicks were effective.
Paul leans toward Rosa as a dog, citing his win-loss streak pattern and submission threat. He notes Rosa's takedown defense is poor but Brown's fight IQ is low. He expects Rosa might catch Brown in a submission. He advises waiting for weigh-ins and possibly better odds.
The MMA Guru picks Charles Rosa (Gabriel Benitez) to win by first-round TKO. He notes that Benitez has devastating kicks, especially calf kicks, which will slow Brown down early. Brown has shown problems with kicks in the past (e.g., against Danny Chavez). He expects Benitez to chop at the legs and body, then clip Brown with a big shot when Brown tries to make something happen. He predicts a first-round TKO, with Brown getting dropped with no base.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Brown | 1 | 61 of 128 | 47% | 85 of 155 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 5:38 |
| Kai Kamaka III | 0 | 82 of 211 | 38% | 110 of 243 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:36 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | T.J. Brown | 0 | 22 of 47 | 46% | 23 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
| Kai Kamaka III | 0 | 34 of 88 | 38% | 35 of 91 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | T.J. Brown | 1 | 26 of 49 | 53% | 40 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:44 |
| Kai Kamaka III | 0 | 24 of 69 | 34% | 40 of 87 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:25 | |
| 3 | T.J. Brown | 0 | 13 of 32 | 40% | 22 of 42 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:09 |
| Kai Kamaka III | 0 | 24 of 54 | 44% | 35 of 65 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Brown | 61 of 128 | 47% | 38 of 100 | 14 of 17 | 9 of 11 | 51 of 115 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 12 |
| Kai Kamaka III | 82 of 211 | 38% | 54 of 174 | 19 of 26 | 9 of 11 | 77 of 204 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | T.J. Brown | 22 of 47 | 46% | 11 of 34 | 4 of 4 | 7 of 9 | 18 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 |
| Kai Kamaka III | 34 of 88 | 38% | 17 of 63 | 9 of 15 | 8 of 10 | 33 of 85 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | T.J. Brown | 26 of 49 | 53% | 18 of 40 | 7 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 20 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 9 |
| Kai Kamaka III | 24 of 69 | 34% | 19 of 63 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 69 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | T.J. Brown | 13 of 32 | 40% | 9 of 26 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kai Kamaka III | 24 of 54 | 44% | 18 of 48 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 20 of 50 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
Big Brady picks T.J. Brown to win by decision, taking a shot on the underdog. He believes Brown's wrestling and grappling are superior, and that Brown can take Kamaka down and wear him out. Brady notes that Kamaka slows down as fights progress and has poor grappling off his back. He also mentions Brown's full training camp at Glory MMA with James Krause, which he sees as a positive. Brady thinks the line should be closer to a pick'em.
Cody sees T.J. Brown as a live underdog now that he is training with James Krause at Glory MMA. He notes that Brown has a submission game and grappling prowess, but his cardio is a major concern. He thinks if Brown uses a proper game plan and doesn't gas out, he can take down Kamaka and submit him. He points out that Kamaka has looked unimpressive, with losses to low-level opponents and a close win over Tony Kelley. He believes Krause's coaching can help Brown manage his energy and fight smart.
Daniel Levi picks Kai Kamaka III to win, citing his potential as a prospect and the fact that T.J. Brown has a weak chin and poor fight IQ. He notes that Kamaka's last loss was on short notice with a bad weight cut, and that he has since moved to a better training camp. Levi believes Kamaka can outwork Brown if he stays off his back.
The host picks T.J. Brown by submission, expecting him to take down Kai Kamaka and wear him out. He notes Kamaka's poor cardio and lack of power, while Brown is a grappler who can chain wrestle. He believes Brown will eventually find a submission in the second or third round.
Paul does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses both fighters' cardio issues and the difficulty in capping the fight. He mentions that Brown's game falls apart if he doesn't finish early, and that Kamaka has looked poor. He does not commit to a side.
The MMA Guru picks Kai Kamaka III over T.J. Brown, noting that Kamaka is younger and more committed to his career, while Brown has been beaten eight times and seems to be Bryce Mitchell's sparring partner. He expects Brown to get takedowns in the first round but fade in the later rounds, allowing Kamaka to win the last two rounds and take a 29-28 decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Chavez | 0 | 43 of 139 | 30% | 59 of 156 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:03 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 49 of 110 | 44% | 52 of 113 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Danny Chavez | 0 | 12 of 42 | 28% | 12 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 17 of 36 | 47% | 17 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 2 | Danny Chavez | 0 | 12 of 45 | 26% | 18 of 52 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 20 of 43 | 46% | 23 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:59 | |
| 3 | Danny Chavez | 0 | 19 of 52 | 36% | 29 of 62 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:51 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 12 of 31 | 38% | 12 of 31 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Chavez | 43 of 139 | 30% | 25 of 103 | 12 of 24 | 6 of 12 | 38 of 132 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| T.J. Brown | 49 of 110 | 44% | 23 of 81 | 8 of 9 | 18 of 20 | 40 of 97 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 13 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Danny Chavez | 12 of 42 | 28% | 4 of 29 | 5 of 9 | 3 of 4 | 12 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| T.J. Brown | 17 of 36 | 47% | 4 of 21 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 13 | 17 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Danny Chavez | 12 of 45 | 26% | 7 of 33 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 7 | 12 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| T.J. Brown | 20 of 43 | 46% | 13 of 35 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 14 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 8 | |
| 3 | Danny Chavez | 19 of 52 | 36% | 14 of 41 | 4 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 45 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| T.J. Brown | 12 of 31 | 38% | 6 of 25 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
Big Brady likes T.J. Brown's wrestling and ground game, expecting him to dominate and possibly get a submission. He notes Brown's chin is a concern but thinks Chavez's ground game is inferior. He would bet if the line gets closer.
Daniel Levi picks Danny Chavez by finish. He notes that T.J. Brown has durability issues, often getting knocked out or submitted even when winning. He believes Chavez's black belt is legit and that he can catch Brown. However, he admits he knows little about Chavez beyond a head-kick knockout and a photo with a black belt. He feels Brown is mentally fragile and prone to getting finished.
The MMA Guru picks T.J. Brown, citing his dangerous grappling and training with Bryce Mitchell. He expects Chavez to come out overzealous looking for a quick finish, which will allow Brown to secure a takedown and control the fight on the ground.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Griffin | 0 | 15 of 23 | 65% | 20 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 3 | 0 | 0:05 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 32 of 47 | 68% | 91 of 119 | 7 of 7 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 7:31 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jordan Griffin | 0 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 7 of 10 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0:05 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 18 of 24 | 75% | 56 of 70 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:30 | |
| 2 | Jordan Griffin | 0 | 10 of 15 | 66% | 13 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 14 of 23 | 60% | 35 of 49 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Griffin | 15 of 23 | 65% | 13 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 17 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 |
| T.J. Brown | 32 of 47 | 68% | 26 of 39 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 9 of 22 | 10 of 10 | 13 of 15 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jordan Griffin | 5 of 8 | 62% | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| T.J. Brown | 18 of 24 | 75% | 13 of 18 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 6 | 7 of 7 | 9 of 11 | |
| 2 | Jordan Griffin | 10 of 15 | 66% | 8 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 |
| T.J. Brown | 14 of 23 | 60% | 13 of 21 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 16 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 4 |
Kai Kamaka III - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai Kamaka III | 0 | 105 of 159 | 66% | 144 of 199 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Dakota Hope | 1 | 106 of 258 | 41% | 155 of 312 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kai Kamaka III | 0 | 21 of 36 | 58% | 31 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Dakota Hope | 1 | 42 of 89 | 47% | 66 of 117 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:35 | |
| 2 | Kai Kamaka III | 0 | 41 of 54 | 75% | 59 of 72 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Dakota Hope | 0 | 32 of 83 | 38% | 44 of 95 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:19 | |
| 3 | Kai Kamaka III | 0 | 43 of 69 | 62% | 54 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Dakota Hope | 0 | 32 of 86 | 37% | 45 of 100 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai Kamaka III | 105 of 159 | 66% | 44 of 94 | 47 of 51 | 14 of 14 | 83 of 131 | 22 of 28 | 0 of 0 |
| Dakota Hope | 106 of 258 | 41% | 62 of 201 | 43 of 54 | 1 of 3 | 61 of 197 | 44 of 57 | 1 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kai Kamaka III | 21 of 36 | 58% | 4 of 17 | 10 of 12 | 7 of 7 | 18 of 31 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Dakota Hope | 42 of 89 | 47% | 23 of 68 | 19 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 56 | 22 of 29 | 1 of 4 | |
| 2 | Kai Kamaka III | 41 of 54 | 75% | 18 of 30 | 19 of 20 | 4 of 4 | 32 of 45 | 9 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Dakota Hope | 32 of 83 | 38% | 19 of 64 | 13 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 20 of 71 | 12 of 12 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Kai Kamaka III | 43 of 69 | 62% | 22 of 47 | 18 of 19 | 3 of 3 | 33 of 55 | 10 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
| Dakota Hope | 32 of 86 | 37% | 20 of 69 | 11 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 22 of 70 | 10 of 16 | 0 of 0 |
Cody picks Kamaka, citing his experience and ability to win close decisions. He expects Kamaka's striking and takedown defense to edge out Hope, who may gas due to his explosive style.
Connor picks Kamaka, noting that Hope is aimless and doesn't build attacks. He expects Kamaka to make the fight harder than necessary but still win. Kamaka's experience and short-notice readiness are advantages, though he acknowledges Kamaka can get trapped into weird fights.
Paul leans towards Hope, noting his physicality and wrestling. He expects Hope to take Kamaka down and control him, though he acknowledges Kamaka's experience.
The MMA Guru picks Kai Kamaka III, citing his experience as a crafty veteran who has fought tough competition like Brendan Loughnane and Bubba Jenkins. He dismisses Dakota Hope's record as padded against lesser opponents and notes that Hope lost to a 9-7 fighter. He believes Kamaka's veteran savvy will be the difference.
Zane picks Kamaka confidently, noting that Kamaka is a more experienced professional who is likely to be ready on short notice. He sees Hope as a good athlete but without much MMA game, aimless and one-and-done as a striker. Kamaka's front-foot pressure and wrestling should overwhelm Hope.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai Kamaka III | 0 | 41 of 110 | 37% | 53 of 122 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Danny Chavez | 0 | 48 of 77 | 62% | 80 of 114 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:33 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kai Kamaka III | 0 | 9 of 31 | 29% | 9 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Danny Chavez | 0 | 14 of 19 | 73% | 14 of 19 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Kai Kamaka III | 0 | 15 of 47 | 31% | 15 of 47 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Danny Chavez | 0 | 22 of 39 | 56% | 22 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 3 | Kai Kamaka III | 0 | 17 of 32 | 53% | 29 of 44 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Danny Chavez | 0 | 12 of 19 | 63% | 44 of 56 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:27 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai Kamaka III | 41 of 110 | 37% | 25 of 81 | 7 of 14 | 9 of 15 | 28 of 91 | 10 of 16 | 3 of 3 |
| Danny Chavez | 48 of 77 | 62% | 9 of 28 | 15 of 20 | 24 of 29 | 42 of 68 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kai Kamaka III | 9 of 31 | 29% | 2 of 18 | 3 of 6 | 4 of 7 | 9 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Danny Chavez | 14 of 19 | 73% | 3 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 8 of 9 | 14 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Kai Kamaka III | 15 of 47 | 31% | 9 of 35 | 2 of 5 | 4 of 7 | 14 of 45 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Danny Chavez | 22 of 39 | 56% | 3 of 13 | 6 of 9 | 13 of 17 | 21 of 36 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Kai Kamaka III | 17 of 32 | 53% | 14 of 28 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 15 | 9 of 14 | 3 of 3 |
| Danny Chavez | 12 of 19 | 63% | 3 of 8 | 6 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 13 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Kai Kamaka III in what he calls the toughest fight to call on the card. He favors Kamaka's youth and higher volume, noting that Chavez is low-volume and was exposed by Jared Gordon. However, he acknowledges both fighters have flaws and can be taken down. He predicts a decision win for Kamaka.
Cody leans towards Danny Chavez, citing Kamaka's poor cardio and Chavez's leg kicks and smart game plan. He notes that Kamaka starts strong but fades, and Chavez has shown he can exploit that. Cody believes Chavez can win a decision or even get a finish if Kamaka gasses. He sees value in Chavez at near pick'em odds.
Levi thinks Kamaka has a couple of physical advantages and believes he will edge out a close fight. He references Kamaka's controversial loss to TJ Brown as a robbery, suggesting Kamaka deserved the win. Levi acknowledges Chavez's durability and calf kicks but leans with Kamaka to get it done, though he admits the fight could be close and competitive.
Chavez trains at MMA Masters and uses calf kicks effectively. Kamaka struggles when opponents push the pace and get their own game going. Chavez should target the calf kick early to slow Kamaka, then mix in striking and takedowns. Kamaka is on short notice, which favors Chavez. Even money is a slight advantage for Chavez.
Paul also picks Danny Chavez, agreeing with Cody's reasoning. He notes that Chavez has a clear path to victory with leg kicks and takedowns, and that Kamaka's cardio is a major liability. Paul is not extremely confident but sees Chavez as the slight favorite in a close fight.
The MMA Guru picks Danny Chavez over Kai Kamaka III, noting that Chavez's main weakness is grappling, but Kamaka is not a grappler. He expects Chavez to chop at Kamaka's lead leg with calf kicks, as Kamaka sits heavy on his lead leg. He predicts Chavez will win by unanimous decision 29-28, with Kamaka possibly winning the first round but fading as the fight goes on.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Brown | 1 | 61 of 128 | 47% | 85 of 155 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 5:38 |
| Kai Kamaka III | 0 | 82 of 211 | 38% | 110 of 243 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:36 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | T.J. Brown | 0 | 22 of 47 | 46% | 23 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
| Kai Kamaka III | 0 | 34 of 88 | 38% | 35 of 91 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | T.J. Brown | 1 | 26 of 49 | 53% | 40 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:44 |
| Kai Kamaka III | 0 | 24 of 69 | 34% | 40 of 87 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:25 | |
| 3 | T.J. Brown | 0 | 13 of 32 | 40% | 22 of 42 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:09 |
| Kai Kamaka III | 0 | 24 of 54 | 44% | 35 of 65 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Brown | 61 of 128 | 47% | 38 of 100 | 14 of 17 | 9 of 11 | 51 of 115 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 12 |
| Kai Kamaka III | 82 of 211 | 38% | 54 of 174 | 19 of 26 | 9 of 11 | 77 of 204 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | T.J. Brown | 22 of 47 | 46% | 11 of 34 | 4 of 4 | 7 of 9 | 18 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 |
| Kai Kamaka III | 34 of 88 | 38% | 17 of 63 | 9 of 15 | 8 of 10 | 33 of 85 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | T.J. Brown | 26 of 49 | 53% | 18 of 40 | 7 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 20 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 9 |
| Kai Kamaka III | 24 of 69 | 34% | 19 of 63 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 69 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | T.J. Brown | 13 of 32 | 40% | 9 of 26 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kai Kamaka III | 24 of 54 | 44% | 18 of 48 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 20 of 50 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
Big Brady picks T.J. Brown to win by decision, taking a shot on the underdog. He believes Brown's wrestling and grappling are superior, and that Brown can take Kamaka down and wear him out. Brady notes that Kamaka slows down as fights progress and has poor grappling off his back. He also mentions Brown's full training camp at Glory MMA with James Krause, which he sees as a positive. Brady thinks the line should be closer to a pick'em.
Cody sees T.J. Brown as a live underdog now that he is training with James Krause at Glory MMA. He notes that Brown has a submission game and grappling prowess, but his cardio is a major concern. He thinks if Brown uses a proper game plan and doesn't gas out, he can take down Kamaka and submit him. He points out that Kamaka has looked unimpressive, with losses to low-level opponents and a close win over Tony Kelley. He believes Krause's coaching can help Brown manage his energy and fight smart.
Daniel Levi picks Kai Kamaka III to win, citing his potential as a prospect and the fact that T.J. Brown has a weak chin and poor fight IQ. He notes that Kamaka's last loss was on short notice with a bad weight cut, and that he has since moved to a better training camp. Levi believes Kamaka can outwork Brown if he stays off his back.
The host picks T.J. Brown by submission, expecting him to take down Kai Kamaka and wear him out. He notes Kamaka's poor cardio and lack of power, while Brown is a grappler who can chain wrestle. He believes Brown will eventually find a submission in the second or third round.
Paul does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses both fighters' cardio issues and the difficulty in capping the fight. He mentions that Brown's game falls apart if he doesn't finish early, and that Kamaka has looked poor. He does not commit to a side.
The MMA Guru picks Kai Kamaka III over T.J. Brown, noting that Kamaka is younger and more committed to his career, while Brown has been beaten eight times and seems to be Bryce Mitchell's sparring partner. He expects Brown to get takedowns in the first round but fade in the later rounds, allowing Kamaka to win the last two rounds and take a 29-28 decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Pearce | 0 | 51 of 100 | 51% | 113 of 172 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 1 | 0 | 3:26 |
| Kai Kamaka III | 0 | 47 of 83 | 56% | 48 of 84 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 1 | 0:33 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jonathan Pearce | 0 | 22 of 55 | 40% | 23 of 56 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Kai Kamaka III | 0 | 35 of 64 | 54% | 36 of 65 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:11 | |
| 2 | Jonathan Pearce | 0 | 29 of 45 | 64% | 90 of 116 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:51 |
| Kai Kamaka III | 0 | 12 of 19 | 63% | 12 of 19 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0:22 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Pearce | 51 of 100 | 51% | 34 of 76 | 12 of 19 | 5 of 5 | 27 of 71 | 6 of 9 | 18 of 20 |
| Kai Kamaka III | 47 of 83 | 56% | 20 of 51 | 20 of 25 | 7 of 7 | 44 of 79 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jonathan Pearce | 22 of 55 | 40% | 10 of 37 | 9 of 15 | 3 of 3 | 19 of 51 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Kai Kamaka III | 35 of 64 | 54% | 13 of 37 | 15 of 20 | 7 of 7 | 35 of 64 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jonathan Pearce | 29 of 45 | 64% | 24 of 39 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 20 | 3 of 5 | 18 of 20 |
| Kai Kamaka III | 12 of 19 | 63% | 7 of 14 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 15 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai Kamaka III | 0 | 114 of 185 | 61% | 138 of 216 | 5 of 5 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 5:09 |
| Tony Kelley | 0 | 114 of 226 | 50% | 185 of 298 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kai Kamaka III | 0 | 43 of 72 | 59% | 49 of 79 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:13 |
| Tony Kelley | 0 | 24 of 59 | 40% | 37 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Kai Kamaka III | 0 | 32 of 56 | 57% | 34 of 58 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:37 |
| Tony Kelley | 0 | 43 of 81 | 53% | 63 of 102 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Kai Kamaka III | 0 | 39 of 57 | 68% | 55 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:19 |
| Tony Kelley | 0 | 47 of 86 | 54% | 85 of 124 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai Kamaka III | 114 of 185 | 61% | 49 of 113 | 64 of 71 | 1 of 1 | 90 of 160 | 22 of 22 | 2 of 3 |
| Tony Kelley | 114 of 226 | 50% | 63 of 152 | 35 of 54 | 16 of 20 | 76 of 182 | 38 of 44 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kai Kamaka III | 43 of 72 | 59% | 22 of 49 | 21 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 34 of 62 | 8 of 8 | 1 of 2 |
| Tony Kelley | 24 of 59 | 40% | 5 of 35 | 9 of 14 | 10 of 10 | 22 of 57 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Kai Kamaka III | 32 of 56 | 57% | 12 of 32 | 19 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 30 of 54 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Tony Kelley | 43 of 81 | 53% | 29 of 56 | 11 of 20 | 3 of 5 | 24 of 60 | 19 of 21 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Kai Kamaka III | 39 of 57 | 68% | 15 of 32 | 24 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 26 of 44 | 13 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Kelley | 47 of 86 | 54% | 29 of 61 | 15 of 20 | 3 of 5 | 30 of 65 | 17 of 21 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady was impressed by Tony Kelley's performance against Kevin Aguilar, noting his crisp striking and takedowns. He thinks Kelley is the better defensive striker and has a size advantage. However, he admits the pick might change after more research and is not confident due to limited tape on Kamaka.
Daniel Levi picks Kai Kamaka III to win his UFC debut. He believes Kamaka is the superior athlete and more well-rounded fighter. He notes Kamaka's aggressive style, body work, and cardio from his LFA fight. He criticizes Tony Kelley's takedown defense and tendency to play off his back. He expects Kamaka to push the pace and win a decision or late finish.
Expert Picks (6)
Big Brady picks T.J. Brown to win by decision, taking a shot on the underdog. He believes Brown's wrestling and grappling are superior, and that Brown can take Kamaka down and wear him out. Brady notes that Kamaka slows down as fights progress and has poor grappling off his back. He also mentions Brown's full training camp at Glory MMA with James Krause, which he sees as a positive. Brady thinks the line should be closer to a pick'em.
Cody sees T.J. Brown as a live underdog now that he is training with James Krause at Glory MMA. He notes that Brown has a submission game and grappling prowess, but his cardio is a major concern. He thinks if Brown uses a proper game plan and doesn't gas out, he can take down Kamaka and submit him. He points out that Kamaka has looked unimpressive, with losses to low-level opponents and a close win over Tony Kelley. He believes Krause's coaching can help Brown manage his energy and fight smart.
Daniel Levi picks Kai Kamaka III to win, citing his potential as a prospect and the fact that T.J. Brown has a weak chin and poor fight IQ. He notes that Kamaka's last loss was on short notice with a bad weight cut, and that he has since moved to a better training camp. Levi believes Kamaka can outwork Brown if he stays off his back.
The host picks T.J. Brown by submission, expecting him to take down Kai Kamaka and wear him out. He notes Kamaka's poor cardio and lack of power, while Brown is a grappler who can chain wrestle. He believes Brown will eventually find a submission in the second or third round.
Paul does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses both fighters' cardio issues and the difficulty in capping the fight. He mentions that Brown's game falls apart if he doesn't finish early, and that Kamaka has looked poor. He does not commit to a side.
The MMA Guru picks Kai Kamaka III over T.J. Brown, noting that Kamaka is younger and more committed to his career, while Brown has been beaten eight times and seems to be Bryce Mitchell's sparring partner. He expects Brown to get takedowns in the first round but fade in the later rounds, allowing Kamaka to win the last two rounds and take a 29-28 decision.
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