UFC on ESPN: Rodriguez vs. Waterson

Big Brady likes Rodriguez's striking advantage and size at flyweight, but is concerned about her poor takedown defense (59%). He notes Waterson will likely get takedowns but Rodriguez is dangerous off her back, landing elbows and strikes. Brady thinks the five-round fight favors Rodriguez, as she has more time to land damaging shots. He predicts a decision win for Rodriguez, but says the ground game scares him and he wants to see weigh-ins first. He might consider a parlay but is not fully confident.

Cody picks Rodriguez but is not confident due to the high price tag of 9200 on DraftKings. He notes Rodriguez's size and reach advantage, and her ability to trap Waterson as the fight progresses. However, he acknowledges Waterson's path to victory through lateral movement and point fighting, and recommends hedging lineups evenly because the value on Waterson is tempting. He sees Rodriguez's win as likely but not a lock, and suggests it's okay to leave this fight out of some lineups.

Daniel Levi picks Marina Rodriguez, citing her one-punch knockout power and superior striking. He acknowledges Michelle Waterson's judo throws and takedown ability but believes Rodriguez will win most stand-up exchanges. He worries about Rodriguez's takedown defense and get-up game, but thinks she can avoid being taken down for three rounds. He expects Rodriguez to piece Waterson up and win a decision or late finish.

The host picks Michelle Waterson as a live underdog, citing her underrated wrestling, jiu-jitsu, and cardio. He believes she can avoid Rodriguez's power early and then take over with takedowns and submissions in later rounds. He likes Waterson by submission and under 4.5 rounds props.

The MMA Guru picks Michelle Waterson over Marina Rodriguez, citing Rodriguez's tendency to gas out in three-round fights and her lack of five-round experience. He notes Waterson has five-round experience and will use her kicks to stay at range, winning rounds three through five. He also mentions Rodriguez is taking the fight on short notice and cutting weight, which favors Waterson.

Big Brady believes Cerrone is the better fighter everywhere, despite being past his prime. He notes Cerrone has fought much better competition and should have an edge on the feet and on the mat. Brady thinks Cerrone can mix in takedowns against Morono's poor takedown defense (47%). He predicts a decision win for Cerrone but says the line at -185 is too high to bet. He acknowledges Morono's high volume but thinks Cerrone's level of competition gives him the edge.

Daniel Levi picks Donald Cerrone, stating there are levels to this and Morono is not a top 25 guy. He highlights Cerrone's superior striking, grappling, and cardio, and notes Morono's inability to get up from bottom. He expects Cerrone to outclass Morono, possibly via blast double or high kick, and predicts a decision win. He mentions Cerrone's durability in the Nico Price fight as a positive sign.

The host is confident in Donald Cerrone, believing he has advantages in striking, wrestling, and jiu-jitsu. He expects Cerrone to piece up Morono and win a decision, noting Morono's cardio issues and short notice. He likes Cerrone by decision prop.

Big Brady thinks Neal's power will be the difference, as he hits like a truck and Magny has been dropped many times. He notes Neal has 92% takedown defense, so Magny will struggle to take him down. Brady expects Neal to land the harder shots and eventually find a knockout, predicting a third-round finish. He says the line at -190 is a bit high and would prefer -150, so he's not betting it but picks Neal to win.

Daniel Levi picks Geoff Neal but expresses hesitation due to Neal's near-death experience and subsequent loss to Wonder Boy. He questions Neal's mental and physical state but believes if Neal is the same fighter, he has the speed and power to beat Magny. He notes Neal's grappling ability and body lock takedowns as potential tools. He hopes Neal is healthy and can get back on track.

The host likes Neil Magny as a live underdog, citing his unorthodox style, reach, and cardio. He believes Magny will frustrate Neal with his jab and clinch work, and that Neal's hesitation from the Wonderboy fight will carry over. He expects a decision win for Magny.

The MMA Guru picks Geoff Neal over Neil Magny, criticizing Magny's recent performance against Michael Chiesa as embarrassing. He believes Neal is more technically sound and will chop down Magny's legs, work body shots, and eventually get a third-round TKO. He notes Neal's ability to pour it on in the third round, as seen in the Belal Muhammad fight.

Big Brady likes de Lima's power and leg kicks, and thinks Greene's poor striking defense (45%) and chin issues will be exploited. He notes Greene has zero takedowns in the UFC, so he won't exploit de Lima's weak takedown defense. Brady predicts de Lima will win by first-round knockout, as de Lima is dangerous early but fades after the first round. He says the under and de Lima in round 1 are good looks, but he wouldn't lay -190 on the moneyline.

Daniel Levi picks Maurice Greene as a dog, citing de Lima's tendency to get submitted or panic on the ground. He notes Greene's length, volume, and opportunistic submission ability. He acknowledges de Lima's power and early-round threat but thinks Greene can survive and find a finish, possibly via submission. He calls de Lima a 'stunt machine' and expects a volatile fight.

The host picks de Lima to win by TKO, expecting his power to be too much for Greene. He notes de Lima's poor cardio and jiu-jitsu but believes his power will get the job done early. He suggests live betting Greene if he survives the first round.

The MMA Guru picks Maurice Greene over Marcos Rogério de Lima, expressing surprise that Greene is a nearly 2-to-1 underdog. He believes Greene's range management with oblique kicks and jabs will neutralize de Lima's counter-punching style. He predicts a unanimous decision win, possibly 30-27, and notes de Lima's only chance is a KO, which he doesn't see happening.

Big Brady believes Gillespie's wrestling will be the difference, as he averages 7.02 takedowns per 15 minutes with 47% accuracy. He notes Ferreira has 68% takedown defense and was taken down five times in his last fight. Brady thinks Gillespie will control the fight on the mat with top control and superior cardio, winning a decision. He is not worried about Ferreira's submission threat off his back, as Ferreira has only two UFC submissions. He says the moneyline at -175 is worth a look.

Daniel Levi picks Carlos Diego Ferreira, calling him the best jiu-jitsu guy in the division besides Oliveira and Dariush. He argues that Gillespie is overrated, citing his 50/50 fight with Jason Gonzalez and his loss to Kevin Lee. He believes Ferreira's jiu-jitsu will be too much for Gillespie, predicting a submission win. He notes Ferreira's ability to get back to his feet and his improved boxing, and thinks Gillespie will struggle to hold him down.

The MMA Guru picks Gregor Gillespie over Carlos Diego Ferreira, acknowledging it's a risky pick. He trusts Gillespie's wrestling style, which avoids being submitted by staying in body lock positions rather than full guard. He also notes Ferreira took the fight on short notice and Gillespie had a full camp, which benefits Gillespie. He predicts a unanimous decision win.

Big Brady picks Hawes but is not confident, noting Hawes is typically first-round-or-bust. He thinks Hawes needs to land an early knockout, otherwise Daukaus will take over. Brady likes the prop 'fight doesn't go to decision' and suggests live betting Daukaus if Hawes doesn't finish in the first round. He mentions Hawes's last fight went to decision but that was an anomaly. He picks Hawes by first-round knockout.

Daniel Levi picks Phil Hawes, arguing that Hawes is underappreciated and has been rushed against tough competition. He notes Hawes' D1 wrestling, freak athleticism, and one-punch knockout power. He believes Hawes learned from his past mistakes and will win a decision, as he did against Imavov. He views Daukaus as an average athlete and black belt, and thinks Hawes can lean on him and get takedowns.

The host favors Kyle Daukaus, believing his jiu-jitsu and cardio will be the difference. He expects Daukaus to survive Hawes' early power and then submit him later. He likes the under 2.5 rounds and Daukaus by submission prop.

The MMA Guru picks Kyle Daukaus over Phil Hawes, noting that Daukaus is the slight favorite. He believes Daukaus's smothering clinch game and technical stand-up will overwhelm Hawes, who showed a hole in his last fight against the cage. He predicts a 29-28 unanimous decision, with Daukaus winning the second and third rounds.

Big Brady is very impressed with Klein, calling him an absolute stud with heavy hands and a nasty head kick. He notes Klein has a 94% finish rate and knocked out Shane Young in the first round. Brady is concerned about Trizano's nearly two-year layoff and potential cage rust. He predicts Klein will get a first-round knockout, though he admits the fight could be semi-competitive if Klein doesn't finish early. He says he wants nothing to do with the fight from a betting perspective.

Daniel Levi picks Ľudovít Klein, citing his power, explosiveness, and well-rounded game. He notes Klein's head kick knockout of Shane Young and his developing grappling. He expects Klein to land the more impactful shots and win a unanimous decision, though he acknowledges Trizano's toughness and technical striking. He thinks Klein's firepower will be the difference.

The host leans towards Michael Trizano as a live underdog, believing the line is out of whack. He thinks Trizano is durable, has good movement, and will outpoint Klein in a striking fight. However, he is concerned about Trizano's layoff and may not bet it. He likes the over 2.5 and fight goes to decision props.

The MMA Guru picks Ľudovít Klein over Michael Trizano, citing Klein's superior competition, youth, and power. He notes Klein has three consecutive head kick KOs and is a fast starter, while Trizano has been inactive for two years and has unimpressive wins. He predicts a first-round KO, specifically a head kick.

Big Brady likes Park's durability and chin, noting he has never been knocked out. He thinks Park will mix in takedowns to wear out Nchukwi, who may have cardio issues despite a good gas tank in his last fight. Brady is concerned about Nchukwi's striking defense after being hit by Pickett. He calls it a close fight that can go either way but leans Park by decision. He explicitly says no bet for him.

Daniel Levi picks Tafon Nchukwi, arguing that African power can make up for experience and technique. He notes Nchukwi's good technique, cardio, and ability to go the distance as seen in the Pickett fight. He believes Nchukwi's takedown defense and get-up game will neutralize Park's wrestling, and that Nchukwi will outstrike Park. He respects Park but thinks Nchukwi is the better athlete.

The host favors JunYong Park as a live underdog, citing his durability, cardio, and ability to push the pace. He believes Nchukwi is one-dimensional and will struggle if he doesn't get an early knockout. He likes the over 2.5 rounds, fight goes to decision, and Park by decision props.

The MMA Guru picks Tafon Nchukwi over JunYong Park, acknowledging it's a tough fight to predict. He thinks Nchukwi's size and strength will allow him to stop Park's takedowns and win by decision, possibly 30-27. He notes Nchukwi showed he can go three rounds in his last fight, which alleviates cardio concerns.

Big Brady likes Harris's wrestling and top control, believing he will take Aguilera down and grind out a decision. He notes Aguilera is dangerous on the feet early but has a suspect chin and has been dropped multiple times. Brady expects Harris to survive the first round and then take over with his grappling, winning a clear decision. He mentions Harris's gas tank is on point and his striking is not bad, but there are question marks due to lack of recent tape.

Daniel Levi picks Carlston Harris, citing his wrestling-heavy game plan and ability to implement his style. He notes Harris' wins over good regional competition and expects him to take Aguilera down and control the fight. He acknowledges Aguilera's power but thinks Harris' wrestling will be too much. He predicts a decision win for Harris.

The host believes Carlston Harris is the real deal, with good striking defense, cardio, and the ability to get the fight to the ground. He expects Harris to grind out a win, possibly by decision, but also likes the over 1.5 rounds and Harris by decision prop. He is slightly cautious due to being burned by Anthony Ivy's debut but overall confident in Harris.

The MMA Guru picks Carlston Harris over Christian Aguilera, citing Harris's recent evolution as a fighter. He notes Harris used to brawl but now uses takedowns and control, as seen in his win over a 17-1 Dagestani opponent. He predicts a second-round submission, specifically a rear-naked choke, as Harris will take Aguilera down and neutralize his power.