vs
+163 -166
UFC on ESPN: Rodriguez vs. Waterson · May 08, 2021 · Welterweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: Rodriguez vs. Waterson Next Fight
Age 38
Height 6' 3"
Reach 80.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 35
Height 5' 11"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Neil Magny
3.4 SLpM
46.0% Str. Acc.
2.44 SApM
51.0% Str. Def.
2.17 TD Avg
39.0% TD Acc.
55.0% TD Def.
0.3 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Geoff Neal
5.02 SLpM
50.0% Str. Acc.
5.5 SApM
57.0% Str. Def.
0.54 TD Avg
45.0% TD Acc.
87.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Neil Magny
Moneyline
BetWay +163
KO/TKO
BetWay +900
Submission
BetWay +800
Decision
BetWay +240
Geoff Neal
Moneyline
FanDuel -166
KO/TKO
BetWay +163
Submission
BetWay +1600
Decision
BetWay +200
Neil Magny - Fight History
LOSS vs Yaroslav Amosov
Submission R1 3:14 · UFC on ESPN: Royval vs. Kape · Dec 13, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Neil Magny 0 5 of 11 45% 15 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Yaroslav Amosov 0 9 of 19 47% 13 of 27 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Neil Magny 0 5 of 11 45% 15 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Yaroslav Amosov 0 9 of 19 47% 13 of 27 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:56
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Neil Magny 5 of 11 45% 2 of 8 2 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Yaroslav Amosov 9 of 19 47% 3 of 12 0 of 0 6 of 7 8 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Neil Magny 5 of 11 45% 2 of 8 2 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Yaroslav Amosov 9 of 19 47% 3 of 12 0 of 0 6 of 7 8 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Yaroslav Amosov vs. Neil Magny
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Amosov (-400); Magny (+300)

Round 1
Your guess is as good as ours as to what the deal was today with this welterweight pairing. Once buried on the prelims, it now headlines them in open defiance of a rumor swirling that Magny was forced out of the fight. Still very much on the card, grizzled veteran and proud trap fight setter Magny (31-13, 23-12 UFC) may be the biggest underdog on the card despite being on his first win streak since 2022. The reason for the odds discrepancy is because he is facing once-beaten former Bellator king Amosov (28-1, 0-0 UFC), who had a de facto tune-up fight in March against Curtis Millender on the regionals before bouncing into the UFC. Grappling is likely about to be the name of the game for the next 15 minutes or fewer, and referee Herb Dean will oversee the proceedings. There is no sign of a glove touch between the two.
Magny leads the dance with a leg kick, and Amosov throws one back that is checked. Magny jabs the body with the ball of his foot, and he dodges to avoid a looping counter. Magny sticks and moves, and he leans as a head kick grazes the side of his melon. Magny’s jab puts him too close to the wrestler, who grabs hold of him and tries to perform a double from behind. He chains it into a single, and Magny breaks out of it all and pops Amosov with a jab and a knee. They tie up, and Amosov looks for a short shot but takes a few more knees. The clinch leads to Amosov going for a single, and Magny falls to his back as Amosov establishes half guard. Amosov wraps his left arm around the head, possibly setting up an arm-triangle choke while simultaneously looking to pass guard with his legs. Magny controls his foe’s left arm to thwart a submission coming together, as well as a guard pass.
Amosov nails his foe with a short left, and he climbs up and over to grab hold of an anaconda choke while skipping straight past mount. The Ukrainian rolls through it to hold on in a nearly north-south posture, and the submission is now ironclad. Magny pushes off on his adversary’s ankle, arm and anything else he can grab hold of, hoping to get some space and save himself, to no avail.
Before he goes out on his shield, Magny taps out on Amosov’s posterior. Just like that, “Dynamo” has passed his first UFC test with flying colors, putting away a longtime veteran in just a couple minutes. On the microphone, Amosov introduces himself to his new company, saying “hi” to the other men at 170 pounds that he can dance with soon.

The Official Result
Yaroslav Amosov def. Neil Magny R1 3:14 via Submission (Anaconda Choke)
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Yaroslav Amosov

Cody picks Amosov, citing his elite takedown defense and striking. He acknowledges Magny's experience and cardio but thinks Amosov's skills will prevail. He expects Amosov to win the first two rounds and possibly finish.

"Give me Amosov here."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident pick date unknown
Yaroslav Amosov

Connor also picks Amosov, but notes that Amosov has cut back on his striking and become more grappling-focused, which could be a problem against certain opponents. However, he believes Magny is a good matchup for Amosov's style. He foresees a dominant win but warns that Amosov may struggle against fighters like Ian Garry who can stuff takedowns.

"I think this will be a good fight for him. I foresee him having a dreadful fight with ian gary... but I'm glad he's here."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident pick date unknown
Yaroslav Amosov

Lucrative James picks Yaroslav Amosov confidently, highlighting his elite wrestling and submission skills. He notes Neil Magny's history of being submitted and outgrappled, and believes Amosov will pass the 'Neil Magny test' with a submission. He projects Amosov as a -300 favorite.

"I'm actually going to go out there and pick Yarislav Amos to submit him, you know, to finish what Jake Matthews started."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean pick date unknown
Neil Magny

Paul leans toward Magny as a live dog, citing too many question marks with Amosov's activity and motivation. He thinks Magny's experience and cardio could pay off if Amosov fades, but is not confident enough to lay the price. He suggests live betting Magny.

"Dog or pass. Neil Magny at plus 300 is never... Live bet him after the first round and you get a better price."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Yaroslav Amosov

Zane picks Amosov confidently, predicting a dominant grappling performance. He notes that Magny is bad off his back and that Amosov's wrestling and top pressure will be too much. He compares it to Magny's losses against strong wrestlers like Gilbert Burns and RDA. He expects Amosov to get a takedown early and transition to a submission.

Odds: Amosov opened -500, now -400; Magny opened +375, now +300. Zane is okay with the odds.
"I do think he's gonna run shop on the Omegne. I think this is actually the kind of fight where this is gonna look a lot more like Neil Magni versus Gilbert Burns."
WIN vs Jake Matthews
Submission R3 3:08 · UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · Sep 28, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jake Matthews 0 18 of 44 40% 28 of 54 0 of 1 0% 3 1 4:43
Neil Magny 0 31 of 57 54% 73 of 103 3 of 5 60% 1 0 2:46
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jake Matthews 0 9 of 20 45% 10 of 21 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:22
Neil Magny 0 18 of 32 56% 24 of 38 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:08
2 Jake Matthews 0 7 of 16 43% 14 of 23 0 of 0 --- 1 0 3:53
Neil Magny 0 7 of 14 50% 22 of 29 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Jake Matthews 0 2 of 8 25% 4 of 10 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:28
Neil Magny 0 6 of 11 54% 27 of 36 2 of 2 100% 1 0 1:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jake Matthews 18 of 44 40% 11 of 36 4 of 4 3 of 4 15 of 37 2 of 4 1 of 3
Neil Magny 31 of 57 54% 28 of 52 1 of 2 2 of 3 29 of 52 2 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jake Matthews 9 of 20 45% 4 of 14 3 of 3 2 of 3 8 of 18 1 of 2 0 of 0
Neil Magny 18 of 32 56% 16 of 30 0 of 0 2 of 2 18 of 31 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Jake Matthews 7 of 16 43% 5 of 14 1 of 1 1 of 1 6 of 13 0 of 0 1 of 3
Neil Magny 7 of 14 50% 7 of 12 0 of 1 0 of 1 7 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jake Matthews 2 of 8 25% 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 6 1 of 2 0 of 0
Neil Magny 6 of 11 54% 5 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 7 2 of 4 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jake Matthews vs. Neil Magny
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Matthews (-475); Magny (+350)

Round 1
Two of the most experienced welterweights in the company wage battle as the main card rolls on, with betting lines a lot wider than most would expect. A substantial favorite of -400 or above, the younger Matthews (22-7, 15-7 UFC) is on his first three-fight win streak in five years. On the other side of the coin, the 38-year-old Magny (30-13, 23-12 UFC) has dropped two of three, all knockouts. The respectful gentlemen will not likely need any refs to keep things clean, but they nevertheless will be joined by referee Jim Perdios. A cordial fist bump is exchanged.
The two swat at one another early with single distant strikes, and Matthews have wider arcs on them but are less accurate. Magny bounces off the cage wall to let go with a low kick, and he is knocked back from a right hand. Magny recovers and flicks out his jab, and he takes a strong calf kick that gives him pause. Magny’s jab bounces off the forehead, and he pushes off the face and his finger grazes the eye. Perdios tells them to be careful, and they carry on.
Matthews chips at the front leg, and Magny spurs into action with a long flurry of punches that largely miss the mark. “The Haitian Sensation” goes after a takedown, and Matthews stops it in its tracks and backs Magny off with a clubbing right hand. Matthews digs a left to the liver and two rights to the head, and he lets Magny unload on him so he can counter back. Magny stays behind his jab, and when Matthews closes in, Magny ties him up. Matthews gets free, and Magny shoots in deep for a double. Matthews tries to defend with a guillotine on the way down, and Magny fights the hand to alleviate the pressure. Magny cannot fight off the choke, and Matthews rolls him over to full mount with one arm holding tight. Matthews squeezes with all his weight, and Magny relaxes and his right arm starts to fall to the side. Perdios waves the fight off right at the bell for a technical submission while saying, “he’s out,” and Magny immediately shouts “No” several times as he stands back up to declare that he is not out. Despite that Perdios called off the fight, he goes back on his decision and says that the fight is still on and that the round is over. This is extremely confusing, as Perdios came into contact with the fighters a moment before the horn sounded, so by definition it should go down as a tech sub or possibly a no contest due to a premature stoppage. Magny catches a serious break here, and he goes back to his corner mad as can be.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Matthews

Round 2
We have reached Round 2 despite the stoppage-non-stoppage. Magny appears fine again, and Matthews lays into him with early offense. The punches and elbows from Matthews lead to a takedown from him, and he drags the grizzled veteran to the floor. From there, Matthews starts to impose his grappling game, comfortably shifting from position to position. “The Celtic Kid” relocates himself into a mounted triangle, with Perdios watching on closely. Magny hangs on tight, not giving up even in a bad, bad way. Magny manages to break out of the sub, but he still finds himself on his back absorbing strikes when not dealing with a submission attempt, setup or trap. Matthews softens up the midsection and moves to half guard, and he hunts for an arm-triangle choke at the same time. The dueling actions allow Magny to get out of the choke and wrap up his opponent. Matthews rides out the remainder of the round on top.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Matthews

Round 3
The elder statesman presses the action to start the final round, and he strikes his way into a trip attempt. Matthews remains upright without issue, and he pushes Magny back to reset. Magny tackles his man to the canvas, and Matthews clings to a guillotine choke like before. With the choke in, Matthews uses his feet to walk across the cage wall and flip himself over, but Magny frees himself before getting mounted. Both stand up, and Magny knees the Aussie in the body a few times. Magny presses Matthews down to knee him in the face in the clinch, and he does work with body shots. Matthews busts out of the clinch and retreats, and Magny chases after him and hurts him with a combination of punches. Magny strikes his way into securing a takedown, and he steps into full mount. Matthews scrambles and turns over to get Magny off of him, and he counters with a single as Magny stands up. Magny lifts Matthews up during a takedown and was going to perform a pro wrestling move but spiking is illegal so he thinks twice.
Using his long arms, Magny laces them beneath Matthews’ armpits and under the throat with a surprise brabo choke. Matthews does not panic, even though he has taken some shots and may be fading. As Magny exerts heavy chest pressure with the choke tight as a drum, Matthews has no way out. Before long, he taps out, and Magny has staged the incredible comeback that would only be shocking if it was not Neil “Expletive Deleted” Magny.
Think back to Magny vs. Hector Lombard, or when he snared Daniel Rodriguez in a choke. For the latter, that was the last time Magny landed a submission—and it was a brabo choke then, too. The victor walks back to his corner grinning from ear to ear, even as the crowd does not like it. The story on this match may not be done here, depending on if there is an official review or appeal of the actions in the first round. For the time being, Magny has done it again, pulling off a third-round victory after taking a beating. Matthews is the first fighter repping Oceania tonight to come up short, with their record currently 7-1 with three more to go tonight.

The Official Result
Neil Magny def. Jake Matthews R3 3:08 via Submission (Brabo Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jake Matthews

Angelo picks Jake Matthews, the biggest favorite on the card, citing his well-rounded skills and high level of competition. He believes Matthews will avoid Magny's clinch game and use takedowns and busy hands to win. He notes that Magny struggles against younger, faster fighters and that Matthews is not stupid enough to engage in a clinch battle.

"Jake Matthews is the pick. That's why he's a five to one favorite here. He was a six to1 favorite, so it did tighten a little bit, but I don't think that's a reflection of people losing confidence as much …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jake Matthews

Big Brady picks Jake Matthews to win by second-round submission. He believes Matthews has finally put it together and is well-rounded with good boxing, wrestling, and BJJ. He thinks Magny is on the decline and has been submitted in six of his UFC losses.

second round submission
"Give me Jake Matthews. Give me Jake Matthews by second round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jake Matthews

Cody picks Matthews, noting he has finally become consistent and is putting his skills together. He believes Matthews is a better striker than Magny now and can defend takedowns, forcing a striking match where Matthews should outland Magny. He also cites the hometown advantage and Magny's recent struggles against leg kicks and younger fighters.

"I got Jake Matthews at this line. He's the biggest favorite on the card, right?"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jake Matthews

Connor also picks Matthews, agreeing that Magny's jab-dependent pressure game has faded. He notes that Magny's recent wins have come against opponents who fell apart, and that Matthews's improved combination punching and wrestling could exploit Magny's vulnerabilities. Connor is cautious because Matthews has a history of reverting to a bad back-foot boxing style, but he thinks Matthews's recent performances show he has moved past that.

"I think I'll go with Matthews."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jake Matthews

James picks Jake Matthews confidently, stating he is better everywhere—striking, wrestling, and power. He notes Matthews is in his prime at 31 and on the best run of his career, while Magny is an aging veteran with a poor ground game. He expects Matthews to take Magny down at will and possibly finish, but predicts a clear decision (30-27 or 29-28) as most likely.

"Jake Matthews is pretty confident pick here for me."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jake Matthews

James confidently picks Jake Matthews, noting he is the biggest favorite on the card. He predicts a finish, possibly by arm triangle, as Magny is older and has been finished recently. He believes Matthews is in his prime and should win easily.

by submission (arm triangle) or inside the distance
"I'm actually going to predict the finish here now."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jake Matthews

The host expects Matthews to take a grapple-heavy approach like his last fight. He acknowledges Magny could have an advantage if the fight goes into deeper water, but thinks Matthews will do enough in the first 10-12 minutes to win on the scorecards.

"I'm expecting Matthews to take another grapple heavy approach just like he did last time around against Chitty and Jakuani. I think he might meet some resistance here and should this fight go into deeper water, it could start to …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jake Matthews

The Guru picks Jake Matthews, believing his well-rounded game and experience against long fighters like Neil Magny will pay off. He notes Matthews' recent submission win and thinks he can replicate that success. He predicts a TKO via low kicks and follow-up shots, calling it a coming-out party.

TKO via low kicks
"I'm going to go with Jake Matthews getting this one done."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jake Matthews

Zane picks Matthews, citing his recent improvements in combination punching and assertiveness. He notes that Magny looks vulnerable on the feet now and has lost his ability to put pressure with his jab. Zane thinks Matthews's wrestling and willingness to mix it up could be key, as Magny has historically struggled against wrestlers. He acknowledges that Matthews's past struggles are a concern, but believes the current version of Matthews is better.

"I think I'll go with Matthews."
KO/TKO R2 4:39 · UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · Aug 02, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Neil Magny 0 42 of 67 62% 80 of 113 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:19
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 20 of 42 47% 42 of 69 1 of 5 20% 0 0 4:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Neil Magny 0 17 of 36 47% 29 of 50 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:16
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 18 of 36 50% 24 of 42 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:03
2 Neil Magny 0 25 of 31 80% 51 of 63 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:03
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 2 of 6 33% 18 of 27 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:37
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Neil Magny 42 of 67 62% 38 of 61 4 of 4 0 of 2 19 of 43 3 of 3 20 of 21
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 20 of 42 47% 5 of 24 4 of 5 11 of 13 17 of 38 3 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Neil Magny 17 of 36 47% 13 of 30 4 of 4 0 of 2 16 of 35 1 of 1 0 of 0
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 18 of 36 50% 5 of 20 4 of 5 9 of 11 15 of 32 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Neil Magny 25 of 31 80% 25 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 8 2 of 2 20 of 21
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 2 of 6 33% 0 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident pick date unknown
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Connor picks Zaleski, noting that Magny has looked increasingly hurtable and gun-shy, while Zaleski still has power and violence in his game. He acknowledges both fighters may be declining, but Zaleski's underlying physicality and scrambling ability give him the edge. Connor doubts Magny can replicate his past comeback wins.

"I got to pick Zaleski at that point."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Zane also picks Zaleski, pointing out that Magny's recent performances show a decline in output and durability. He notes that Zaleski has historically struggled against rangy strikers, but Magny's current form may not pose that threat. Zane believes Zaleski's wrestling and scrambling will be too much for Magny to handle.

"I mean, Zaleski's just more dangerous competitive wrestler and scrambler."
CANCEL vs Gunnar Nelson
LOSS vs Carlos Prates
KO (punch) R1 4:50 · UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · Nov 09, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carlos Prates 0 10 of 20 50% 23 of 33 0 of 7 0% 0 0 1:31
Neil Magny 2 12 of 21 57% 13 of 22 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carlos Prates 0 10 of 20 50% 23 of 33 0 of 7 0% 0 0 1:31
Neil Magny 2 12 of 21 57% 13 of 22 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carlos Prates 10 of 20 50% 7 of 17 2 of 2 1 of 1 9 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0
Neil Magny 12 of 21 57% 9 of 17 1 of 1 2 of 3 10 of 19 0 of 0 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carlos Prates 10 of 20 50% 7 of 17 2 of 2 1 of 1 9 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0
Neil Magny 12 of 21 57% 9 of 17 1 of 1 2 of 3 10 of 19 0 of 0 2 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Neil Magny vs. Carlos Prates
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Prates (-650), Magny (+470)

Round 1
Ever the “trap fight” connoisseur, Magny (29-12, 22-11 UFC) would like nothing more than to derail the quick rise of power-punching Prates (20-6, 3-0 UFC). The durable New Yorker by way of Colorado may be susceptible to getting blitzed early, but he also has the unearthly ability to outlast opponents and turn on the jets. Ask Hector Lombard, Mike Malott or Daniel Rodriguez, to name but a few. With five rounds to get things done, it could be a lot of fun until what could be a dramatic end. Referee Mark Smith is in it for the long haul, and he brings the welterweights to the center of the cage to bump fists. They do not bump fists. It’s on with the show. Magny strides into the middle of the Octagon to get going, where he uses his length with low kicks and jabs to surprise the Brazilian with a sudden level change. Magny goes after a single-leg takedown, pressing Prates to the cage but falling to his back. Magny lands on his back and closes his guard, with Prates posturing up for a second before Magny wraps him up again. Prates looks for one big right hand when he finds space, and Magny boxes his ears and tries to keep him tight. Prates works his way out of the grappling and stands back up, and he launches a leg kick only to have to deal with three lunging punches flying back his way. Magny come up close and elbows his opponent, looking for a trip and letting it go to chase Prates while dinging him with a right hand. Magny drops down for a single, and Prates hops out of danger and finds himself dealing with a second attempt as soon as he spins around. Magny lifts the limb up, and Prates’ balance is immaculate as he not only stays on his feet but lowers his leg back down. Prates gets off a single knee with his back to the wall, and Magny hangs on until Prates explodes out. Magny jabs from afar, and he leans to avoid a looping left hand. Prates has his left hand chambered, and he stops a double-leg entry and kicks Magny’s rear leg. Prates whips a left to Magny’s chest, and he knocks Magny down with a fierce short right hand. Magny is told to stand back up, and Prates walks him down, swarming him with punches. Magny bounces off the cage wall, kicking out with front kicks to keep distance before selling out for a single. Prates defends it, frees his trapped arm and walks Magny down. Magny snipes him from a long way out, with his reaching limbs effectively keeping “The Nightmare” at bay…until they don’t.
Prates unloads a monstrous left hand that does not even connect flush but buzzes the top of the veteran’s head. This is all it takes, with Prates apparently possessing “dim mak” as Magny falls to his face, unconscious. Prates walks off, knowing his work here is done, and everyone in the Apex is stunned as they may not have seen the mighty sleep-inducing blow.
“Breakthrough Fighter of the Year” may be well and truly sewn up, with Prates making his promotional debut in 2024 and scoring four knockouts, none greater than his annihilation of tricky vet Magny. The perennial contender comes to as Smith tends to him, and Prates dons the trademark Fighting Nerds glasses to celebrate his terrific handiwork. The Brazilian calls his shot, with very specific plans in mind: Jack Della Maddalena at UFC 312 in Australia. If this is too big of a gap, dispatching the UFC’s #15 Magny and moving on to a top-five adversary, he is reasonable and suggests he and Geoff Neal would engage in a wild one. No matter what the heavy-handed rising fighter gets next, we will be here for it—just like we will be ready for UFC 309 next week. We hope you are too.

The Official Result
Carlos Prates def. Neil Magny R1 4:50 via KO (Punch)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Carlos Prates

Angelo picks Carlos Prates despite Neil Magny's vast experience. He believes Prates is too accurate with good footwork to be caught in a takedown. He notes Prates' power and finishing streak (9-fight KO streak). He thinks Magny would need to wrestle without getting hit, which is unlikely. He expects Prates to make it 10 KOs in a row.

"Carlos prattes is the pick the odds do seem to be long gone though maybe they'll start to correct themselves"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Carlos Prates

Big Brady is confident in Prates, citing his speed, power, and range. He believes Magny is on the decline and will struggle to get the fight to the ground. He predicts Prates will land a knockout in the second round.

Prates by KO/TKO, round 2
"I'll say second round for Carlos press there by knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Carlos Prates

Cody agrees Prates is the favorite but warns about the wide money line. He notes Prates' unique style and finishing ability, but also points out that Magny has a grappling and cardio advantage if the fight goes past two rounds. Cody suggests a live bet on Magny if Prates doesn't finish early, but ultimately picks Prates.

Prates by KO, under 2.5 rounds, live bet on Magny if fight goes past two rounds
"Carlos Prates by knockout the under two and a half and yet the guy's been smoking darts and breaking hearts."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident pick date unknown
Carlos Prates

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Magny's recent performances show a decline in activity and that Prates is smart enough to kick the legs and avoid Magny's clinch. He thinks Magny's only path is if Prates makes a mistake, but he doesn't see that happening. Connor is confident Prates will win, likely by knockout.

"I think I will actually be surprised here if Neil Magny does not get knocked out."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident pick date unknown
Carlos Prates

Daniel Vreeland is confident in Carlos Prates to win by knockout, citing Prates' calf kicks and Muay Thai as key weapons against Neil Magny. He notes that Magny's reach advantage won't be an issue because Prates is a big welterweight who can fight at range and in the clinch. Vreeland expects a finish, possibly in round four, referencing the Santiago Ponzinibbio fight where Magny was finished late. He also mentions Prates' jiu-jitsu black belt but predicts a KO.

Prates by KO (-300), Prates round 1 (+200), round 2 (+350), round 3 (+450), round 4 (+900), under 2.5 rounds (-215)
"I am gonna pick Carlos Prates to come out here and put Neil Magny as another member of his highlight reel, it's going to be a 16th knockout in my opinion."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident pick date unknown
Carlos Prates

Lucrative James picks Carlos Prates to win by KO, noting that Neil Magny's best days are behind him and that Prates has a strong win streak. He acknowledges that Prates has shown some vulnerabilities, such as being wobbled and dropping rounds, but believes Prates will eventually land a kill shot. He also mentions that Magny does well against southpaws, which could make the fight closer early, but ultimately expects Prates to finish him.

by KO
"Carlos pratez via KO is the final prediction"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Carlos Prates

Prates is a -750 favorite and the perfect fighter to cause Neil Magny issues. He will use leg kicks to slow Magny down, then open up with combinations to find a big shot and finish him in the second or third round.

wins inside distance, round 2-3, odds -750
"prates finding himself as a minus 750 favor going into this matchup and it completely makes sense as he is the perfect architect of fighter that causes Neil Magny issues look for a lot of light kicks from proess to …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Carlos Prates

Paul believes Prates is an absolute sniper with devastating power, as shown by knocking out Jin Jin Leang Lee. He thinks Neil Magny's only path is wrestling, but if he can't get takedowns, his striking won't scare Prates. Paul sees a knockout as almost inevitable and recommends the under 2.5 rounds or Prates by KO prop.

Prates by KO, under 2.5 rounds
"Carlos Prates by knockout seems like it's almost inevitable."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Carlos Prates

The Guru picks Carlos Prates to win by TKO, citing Prates' Muay Thai style, low kicks, and finishing ability. He notes Neil Magny's poor leg kick defense and recent TKO loss two and a half months ago, suggesting Magny is vulnerable. He expects Prates to chew up Magny's leg early and finish with body shots in round two or late round one.

TKO win, low kicks, body shots finish, round 2 or late round 1
"I'm going to go with Carlos prattes getting this one done with prattes people are say are you Gary couldn't finish nil magnet dude mag Gary doesn't have power like that"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Carlos Prates

Zane is very high on Prates, calling him his favorite striker in MMA. He praises Prates' understanding of range, active defense, and ability to cut off opponents' offense. He believes Prates will outclass Magny, who has become inactive and is vulnerable to leg kicks and pressure. Zane expects a knockout.

"I'm picking Pratas very confidently here."
LOSS vs Michael Morales
TKO (punches) R1 4:39 · UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Borralho · Aug 24, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michael Morales 0 5 of 11 45% 13 of 19 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:05
Neil Magny 1 34 of 40 85% 39 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michael Morales 0 5 of 11 45% 13 of 19 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:05
Neil Magny 1 34 of 40 85% 39 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:16
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michael Morales 5 of 11 45% 1 of 7 2 of 2 2 of 2 3 of 8 1 of 2 1 of 1
Neil Magny 34 of 40 85% 30 of 35 0 of 0 4 of 5 4 of 5 0 of 0 30 of 35
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michael Morales 5 of 11 45% 1 of 7 2 of 2 2 of 2 3 of 8 1 of 2 1 of 1
Neil Magny 34 of 40 85% 30 of 35 0 of 0 4 of 5 4 of 5 0 of 0 30 of 35
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Michael Morales

Angelo picks Michael Morales confidently, calling himself a 'big Michael Morales guy.' He highlights Morales' national championships in freestyle wrestling and Muay Thai, his fantastic footwork, and his clean takedowns. He believes Morales is better than Magny everywhere and will win with accurate striking and takedowns. He notes Magny's age and recent comeback win but thinks Morales is the superior fighter.

"I think Morales is better than Magny literally everywhere literally everywhere I can't think of a single aspect in MMA where Neil Magny is better"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Michael Morales

Cody picks Morales because he is a young, talented prospect with a judo background and power. He thinks Morales will outwork Magny and possibly get a finish. He notes that Magny has looked slow and flat-footed in recent fights and has been outworked by lesser fighters. He believes Morales' cardio is good and he won't fade like some prospects.

Michael Morales by decision
"sign me up for Michael Morales but at 850 at 850 we got to be talking about this thing like it is a slam dunk Surefire thing"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident pick date unknown
Michael Morales

Daniel Vreeland confidently picks Michael Morales, arguing that Morales thrives in the clinch where Magny often beats opponents. He notes Morales' improving hands and wrestling background, and believes he will beat Magny at his own game and possibly get a finish.

finish
"I think is going to actually beat Magny at his own game and possibly get a finish along the way"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Neil Magny

Brevin picks Magny as a big underdog, citing his experience against top competition, his size and reach advantage, and his grappling edge. He thinks Morales is overhyped and will get fraud-checked. He notes Magny is a gatekeeper who often wins these matchups. JP disagrees, picking Morales, calling Magny a 40-year-old gatekeeper who goes to decision and has shown his ceiling. JP thinks Morales is better and younger.

Magny by submission (potential)
"I'm gonna take another big Underdog here give me Neil Magny wow give me Neil Magny to get done"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean pick date unknown
Neil Magny

Paul takes a small shot on Magny at +600 because he thinks the line is too wide. He notes that Morales has looked good but has dropped rounds and hasn't faced a veteran like Magny. He thinks Magny's cardio and clinch work could give Morales problems if the fight goes deep. He admits Morales likely wins but the price is worth a small bet.

"I took a small poke on Neil magn at plus 600 um it's not going to kill me either way"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Michael Morales

The MMA Guru picks Michael Morales because he believes Neil Magny is past his prime at 37 and does not check low kicks. He notes Morales is young (25), talented, and has good wins over Jake Matthews and Max Griffin. He expects Morales to attack the low kicks and stuff takedowns, winning on the feet.

"I'm going to go with Michael Morales um he beat Jake Matthews I think that's a decent win Max Griffin a decent win"
WIN vs Mike Malott
TKO (punches) R3 4:45 · UFC 297: Strickland vs. du Plessis · Jan 20, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Neil Magny 0 57 of 102 55% 110 of 159 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:47
Mike Malott 0 45 of 67 67% 100 of 128 4 of 6 66% 0 0 6:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Neil Magny 0 5 of 25 20% 12 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Mike Malott 0 20 of 31 64% 20 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
2 Neil Magny 0 6 of 15 40% 18 of 29 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Mike Malott 0 21 of 30 70% 67 of 79 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:08
3 Neil Magny 0 46 of 62 74% 80 of 98 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:44
Mike Malott 0 4 of 6 66% 13 of 18 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:36
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Neil Magny 57 of 102 55% 52 of 95 3 of 3 2 of 4 13 of 44 0 of 2 44 of 56
Mike Malott 45 of 67 67% 19 of 40 4 of 4 22 of 23 30 of 49 0 of 0 15 of 18
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Neil Magny 5 of 25 20% 4 of 22 0 of 0 1 of 3 5 of 24 0 of 1 0 of 0
Mike Malott 20 of 31 64% 2 of 13 1 of 1 17 of 17 20 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Neil Magny 6 of 15 40% 4 of 13 1 of 1 1 of 1 6 of 14 0 of 1 0 of 0
Mike Malott 21 of 30 70% 14 of 22 3 of 3 4 of 5 9 of 17 0 of 0 12 of 13
3 Neil Magny 46 of 62 74% 44 of 60 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 44 of 56
Mike Malott 4 of 6 66% 3 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 5
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Neil Magny vs. Mike Malott
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Malott (-340), Magny (+270)

Round 1
With Malott looking to show he is a Top 15 fighter, and Magny aiming to prove that he can do more than man the velvet rope for that category even at age 36, only one is likely to get his wish. Kevin Macdonald is the referee. Both fighters are in orthodox stance, and Malott lands a front kick to Magny’s lead leg immediately. Magny comes forward behind a high guard and Malott goes back to the lead leg with another push kick. Moments later, he hits Magny with a calf kick to that leg, then another. A strategy appears to be emerging. Malott steps in behind an overhand right, and Magny meets him, grabbing a clinch. Malott immediately shoves him off. Malott surges forward with a pair of big looping hooks. They fall short but succeed in backing Magny straight to the fence. Malott throws a lightning-fast head kick, but Magny just as quickly steps inside and takes the clinch again. Malott drives Magny to the fence and pummels his way out of the position, moving away from the cage and forcing Magny to follow. Malott goes back to the leg kicks, all aimed at the lead left leg of Magny. Malott is now getting Magny to bite on hip feints, indicating the effect the kicks have had so far. Malott lands a glancing low kick at the 10-second clapper, the last offense of the round.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Malott

Round 2
Magny throws a low kick to open the round, which Malott checks. Magny stalks forward and Malott gives ground, then plants and catches Magny with a clean two-punch combination that stings. Malott lands an inside kick to the lead leg, followed by a body kick on the other side. Magny comes crashing forward, but Malott uses a body lock to take him down, landing in full guard. Magny works to create some space to escape, but Malott more or less lets him up. Malott closes the distance again and uses a body lock and trip to dump the taller man to the floor at the base of the fence. Malott is in a sort of loose half guard, hovering over Magny, and when he dives in with an elbow strike, Magny locks down his right leg. Malott gets a few shots in from half guard, then stands over Magny. Magny throws a upkick and Malott jumps right back onto him, moving to mount. Magny spins to put his feet against the fence, looking to use the cage to bridge and escape, but Malott scoots him away from the cage and stays in mount, throwing methodical, heavy elbows and forearms. Malott isolates Magny’s left arm, perhaps considering a submission, but at the 10-second clapper gives up on it and throws strikes until the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Malott

Round 3
Malott throws a leg kick and backs Magny up with punches, then changes levels and more or less bowls him over for a fast takedown, landing in mount. Magny wraps his arms around Malott, keeping him from posturing up and doing major damage, then bucks and returns to his feet. Malott follows him across the cage and launches himself at his hips, scoring another easy takedown. Magny gets to full guard, then grapevines the legs, trying to keep Malott from going anywhere. Malott throws some short strikes before standing up out of guard and dives back in, but ends up in full guard again. Magny stands and Malott grabs a guillotine, pulling guard as he does, but Magny pops his head out and ends up on top, where he starts throwing punches with some urgency. Malott is suddenly looking exhausted and Magny is all over him. Malott turns to his side, but otherwise offers no real defense as Magny continues throwing a stream of unblocked punches with both hands. There’s less than 30 seconds left. Referee Macdonald is looking on closely, and as motivated as he might be to avoid any possibility of a quick stoppage, after at least two dozen unanswered blows, he interposes himself for the TKO with just 15 seconds left on the clock. What a comeback by the ageless, indefatigable Neil Magny.

The Official Result
Neil Magny def. Mike Malott R3 4:45 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mike Malott

Angelo picks Malott, viewing this as a showcase for the Canadian prospect. He acknowledges Magny's experience and toughness but notes Magny has looked declining in recent fights. He warns against overexposure on Malott since this is his toughest opponent, but plans to have some action on him.

Will have some action on Malott; avoid overexposure
"this has to be a Mike mot pick this is the matchup in Canada for a reason"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mike Malott

Big Brady is very confident in Malott, calling it a setup fight. He notes Malott is dangerous everywhere with 100% finish rate, while Magny is 36, has taken damage, and has been submitted six times. He expects Malott to get a takedown and submit Magny in the first round.

first round submission
"give be Mike mot to win this fight by first round sub"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mike Malott

Cody is confident Malott wins, citing his size, strength, power, and well-rounded skills. He notes Malott's quick finishes but acknowledges Magny's durability and cardio. He suggests Malott by decision as a prop because Magny is tough to finish.

Malott by decision at +400 to +450
"Mot definitely the pick... the prop is a little tricky... maybe mot by decision."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Mike Malott

Daniel Vreeland picks Mike Malott to win but is hesitant due to Malott's unproven ceiling and Magny's veteran tactics. He acknowledges Malott's dangerous finishing ability and guillotine series, but worries about Magny's clinch game and length. He notes Magny has been fading but has also been a tough fade historically. He passes on betting the -400 line.

"I'm going to pick Mike mot to continuous streak and show out"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident pick date unknown
Neil Magny

Vreeland picks Magny as a dog, citing the massive step up in competition for Malott. He notes Magny's size, reach advantage, and ability to impose his game plan. Vreeland questions Malott's path to victory, doubting he can outwrestle Magny or overcome the reach disadvantage on the feet. He sees value in the plus money.

plus 310 dog money
"I am going dog that's going to surprise you probably right Neil Magny I had a feeling you Neil Magny big step up like this is this is a real big step up from lot unless Magny is totally from …"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident pick date unknown
Neil Magny

Fox also picks Magny, agreeing with Vreeland on the step up in competition. He notes Magny's reach advantage and good wrestling defense. Fox doesn't see a clear path for Malott, as Magny is a tall fighter who knows how to use his reach. He likes the dog money.

plus 310 dog money
"I don't really like the pass to Victory here from a lot do you think he's like gonna out wrestle Neil Magny like mag's got pretty good wrestling right like he he's at least defensively seems like he's got good …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert pick date unknown

This fight is not discussed in the transcript. The host does not mention Magny vs Malott.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mike Malott

I fully expect Malott to play with Magny on the feet, eventually drag the fight to the ground, and strangle him with a submission. Malott's grappling advantage is huge, and Magny has historically struggled against strong grapplers. The -365 line is a bit wide for a prospect against a veteran, but I think the fight will look like a cakewalk for Malott. I'm looking for a first-round submission.

submission victory, first round finish
"I fully expect Mike mot to play with Magny on the feet a little bit eventually drag this fight to the ground and strangle Neo Magny on route to a submission Victory"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mike Malott

Paul agrees Malott wins but won't bet the -400 moneyline. He thinks Malott has the power and grappling advantage but Magny is durable and has gone the distance with top guys. He considers Malott by decision as a possible prop.

Malott by decision (mentioned as a possibility)
"I think mot wins... there's no way I touch the minus 400."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mike Malott

The MMA Guru picks Mike Malott, citing Magny's age and recent KO loss to Ian Garry. He trusts Malott's pressure and leg kicks, and predicts a submission via arm triangle in round two. He also mentions Magny's personal issues (custody battle) as a potential distraction.

submission, round 2
"I'm going to go with Mike Mallet I was going I was honestly hedging the idea of picking Neil Magny here"
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–26, 30–24) R3 5:00 · UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · Aug 19, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ian Machado Garry 0 27 of 66 40% 51 of 93 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:10
Neil Magny 0 91 of 150 60% 111 of 171 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ian Machado Garry 0 8 of 24 33% 22 of 40 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:05
Neil Magny 0 20 of 32 62% 33 of 45 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:07
2 Ian Machado Garry 0 11 of 27 40% 15 of 32 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:05
Neil Magny 0 31 of 53 58% 35 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
3 Ian Machado Garry 0 8 of 15 53% 14 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Neil Magny 0 40 of 65 61% 43 of 69 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ian Machado Garry 27 of 66 40% 10 of 41 7 of 11 10 of 14 25 of 61 2 of 5 0 of 0
Neil Magny 91 of 150 60% 32 of 90 16 of 17 43 of 43 84 of 140 4 of 5 3 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ian Machado Garry 8 of 24 33% 3 of 15 1 of 2 4 of 7 7 of 21 1 of 3 0 of 0
Neil Magny 20 of 32 62% 5 of 17 4 of 4 11 of 11 19 of 30 1 of 1 0 of 1
2 Ian Machado Garry 11 of 27 40% 5 of 20 3 of 4 3 of 3 10 of 25 1 of 2 0 of 0
Neil Magny 31 of 53 58% 9 of 30 6 of 7 16 of 16 28 of 49 3 of 4 0 of 0
3 Ian Machado Garry 8 of 15 53% 2 of 6 3 of 5 3 of 4 8 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Neil Magny 40 of 65 61% 18 of 43 6 of 6 16 of 16 37 of 61 0 of 0 3 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Ian Machado Garry

Angelo is confident in Ian Garry, believing his striking speed and timing will keep Neil Magny at range and prevent him from using his grappling. He notes that Magny is stepping up on short notice and that Garry has shown he can overcome adversity, as in the Song Kenan fight. He expects a clear decision win similar to Garry's win over Darian Weeks.

"Ian Gary is going to be the pick and I think this is going to look like when Ian beat Darian weeks... very confident in Ian especially with Neil magni stepping up on short notice."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Ian Machado Garry

Big Brady picks Ian Garry to win by third-round knockout, citing Garry's size, cardio, and power advantage. He notes Magny has been finished in 8 of 10 losses and struggled against Phil Rowe. Brady worries about Garry's striking defense but believes Magny lacks the power to exploit it.

win by KO, round 3
"give me Ian Gary to win this fight I'll take Ian Gary to win by third round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Ian Machado Garry

Cody acknowledges Garry's talent but notes his past struggles and poor takedown defense. He thinks Magny could pose problems with wrestling, but Magny looked washed in his last fight. He expects Garry to win, likely by decision, but doesn't love the -400 line. He suggests Garry may not add much value to parlays.

under 57.5 significant strikes for Garry; inside the distance possible but not confident
"I would take Gary now minus 400 again it's just not a money line that I love inside the distance if magnes completely washed sure inside the distance"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident pick date unknown
Ian Machado Garry

Daniel Levi is sold on Ian Machado Garry, calling him one of the best prospects in the welterweight division. He notes that Garry has good takedown defense, a solid get-up game, and has gone five rounds. Levi believes Garry will not fall into the trap of clinching with Magny, as other prospects have, because of his range management and footwork. He acknowledges the price is trash at -500 but still likes Garry to win.

Price is trash but Garry wins; minus 500 is too high but still a pick
"I've been sold since day one... the price is trash but I like Ian Gary in the spot"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident pick date unknown
Ian Machado Garry

Lucrative James picks Ian Garry to dominate, citing the 11-year age difference, Magny's short notice, and Magny's tendency to get finished when he loses. He believes Garry has a good chance of finishing Magny, though he notes Garry is more of a point striker. He prefers the finish prop over decision.

Ian Garry inside distance (plus 600)
"I honestly think Gary's gonna dominate this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Ian Machado Garry

Garry is the sharper striker and should land clean shots down the pipe. Magny struggles against technical strikers and has been finished before. Garry's ability to avoid the cage and pivot off will prevent Magny from grinding him. Expect a knockout finish, making the KO prop at even money a strong play.

Garry by KO
"I'd rather take a shot on that because if he's going to look that minus 400 in my opinion it's going to be with him getting his hand raised by finish in the spot I don't think it comes by …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Ian Machado Garry

The MMA Guru picks Ian Garry over Neil Magny. He notes Garry's rapid improvement, judo background, and takedown defense. He thinks Garry will pick at range, chop at the legs, and possibly finish early. He also mentions Magny taking the fight on short notice and at 170 lbs, which favors Garry. He predicts a first-round KO after leg kicks.

round one KO after leg kicks
"I think he smokes Neil Magnum round one after chewing up his leg for about three minutes"
Geoff Neal - Fight History
LOSS vs Uroš Medić
KO R1 1:19 · UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · Feb 21, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Geoff Neal 0 3 of 10 30% 3 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Uroš Medić 1 10 of 19 52% 10 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Geoff Neal 0 3 of 10 30% 3 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Uroš Medić 1 10 of 19 52% 10 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Geoff Neal 3 of 10 30% 1 of 6 1 of 3 1 of 1 3 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Uroš Medić 10 of 19 52% 4 of 10 6 of 9 0 of 0 10 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Geoff Neal 3 of 10 30% 1 of 6 1 of 3 1 of 1 3 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Uroš Medić 10 of 19 52% 4 of 10 6 of 9 0 of 0 10 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

Angelo picks Geoff Neal despite recent knockout loss, citing his overall experience and well-rounded skill set. He acknowledges Uroš Medić's power and finishing ability but notes Medić's questionable chin. He is hesitant because Neal is 35 and coming off a KO, but believes Neal is the better fighter.

"Geoff Neal's going to be the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

Big Brady picks Geoff Neal to defeat Uroš Medić, citing Medić's suspect chin and Neal's heavy hands. He notes that Medić has been dropped by lesser punchers like Gilbert Urbina, while Neal hits like a truck. He predicts a first-round knockout, possibly requiring a stretcher for Medić. He acknowledges Neal was knocked out in his last fight but calls that a fluke spinning elbow that would KO most of the division.

Geoff Neal by first-round knockout
"I think Geoff Neal's going to hit Medich very hard and I'm just not sure Medich is going to be able to take it. I got to go Geoff Neal here to win and I'm going to take Geoff Neal …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

Cody buys into Neal's sobriety narrative and thinks this is his easiest fight in a while. He notes Medić is an under machine who either finishes or gets finished, and expects Neal to win by KO early. He recommends under 1.5 rounds.

under 1.5 rounds
"Neil's the pick for me, but give me unders. Fight doesn't go to decision as parlay pieces."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

Connor picks Neal confidently, stating that Medić is a glass cannon who gets hurt easily and sells out on his shots, leaving him vulnerable to counters. He notes that Neal has been tested against much better competition and has always been competitive, while Medić's wins have aged poorly. He believes Neal's composure and athleticism will be too much for Medić.

Connor thinks the odds should be more like -400; Neal opened -180, now -212; Medić opened +155, now +182
"I'm going to be real honest. I think this should be like your plus minus 400 odds kind of fight."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert pick date unknown

The host rules out betting on Neal due to red flags from an interview where Neal discussed past issues with drugs, alcohol, and diet, making him unreliable at -225. He is tempted by Medic as a +178 underdog, noting Medic's dynamic striking and power, but passes because Medic has slowed in past fights and Neal has excellent cardio. He concludes it's an easy pass on both sides.

Neal's lifestyle red flags; Medic's cardio concerns
"There is no [__] way that anyone with a brain can bet Jeff Neil after he has literally told you his diet might not be the best and he has issues with drugs slash alcohol."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

James picks Geoff Neal to win by first-round KO, citing Neal's experience against elite competition and the step down in competition for Medic. He notes that Medic is volatile and prone to getting knocked out early, and that Neal's power and boxing should be enough to finish him. James also likes the under 1.5 rounds and doesn't go to decision props.

under 1.5 rounds at -175, doesn't go to decision
"I will pick Jeff Neil to get it done via KO in round one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

Neal is a crafty striker with good power and range management, and he has fought tougher competition. Medic is a Muay Thai specialist but has durability issues and poor grappling defense. Neal should be able to land a big shot and finish Medic, likely in the first round. The line is fair given Neal's experience and home crowd.

"I think Neil wins pretty easily here and I think he gets the knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

Paul thinks Neal's step up in competition is significant and that Medić's chin is suspect. He notes Neal has fought top welterweights and held his own, while Medić has been knocked out by lesser opponents. He expects Neal to win by KO, possibly in the first round.

Neal by KO -133
"Neil Neil KO minus 133 any round minus 133. Yeah, looks like the way to go."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

The MMA Guru hesitantly picks Geoff Neal, despite concerns about his chin and motivation after a KO loss. He believes Medić makes mistakes and is explosive but can be caught coming in. He predicts Neal will find a way to put Medić away in round two after Medić expends his energy.

TKO round two
"I'm going to go with Geoff Neal by TKO round two."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

Zane agrees with Connor, calling Medić a 'one hitter quitter' who is extremely vulnerable on the counter. He notes that Medić has no defense and gets hurt easily, even in fights he wins. He believes Neal is significantly better in the pocket and should be able to weather Medić's early power and then take over.

"I think Jeff Neil is significantly better and more composed in the pocket than Medic. If Jeff Neil doesn't absolutely dust rose Medic, then that'll be a huge shock."
LOSS vs Carlos Prates
KO R1 4:59 · UFC 319: du Plessis vs. Chimaev · Aug 16, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Geoff Neal 0 25 of 49 51% 26 of 50 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Carlos Prates 1 32 of 60 53% 32 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Geoff Neal 0 25 of 49 51% 26 of 50 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Carlos Prates 1 32 of 60 53% 32 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Geoff Neal 25 of 49 51% 16 of 38 4 of 6 5 of 5 23 of 45 2 of 4 0 of 0
Carlos Prates 32 of 60 53% 17 of 45 8 of 8 7 of 7 32 of 58 0 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Geoff Neal 25 of 49 51% 16 of 38 4 of 6 5 of 5 23 of 45 2 of 4 0 of 0
Carlos Prates 32 of 60 53% 17 of 45 8 of 8 7 of 7 32 of 58 0 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Geoff Neal vs. Carlos Prates
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Prates (-250), Neal (+205)

Round 1
Welcome to what many are considering the “just bleed” matchup of the evening. Two welterweight flamethrowers will throw down mightily, and referee Jason Herzog gets the honor of handling it personally. Fortis MMA athlete Neal (16-6, 8-4 UFC) and Fighting Nerds representative Prates (21-7, 4-1 UFC) meet with 26 knockouts across their 37 total victories, and one more could be coming soon. Before they try to lop one another’s head off, Herzog has to usher them back to their corners. Despite that, they bump their fists together cordially.
Prates bounces up and down in the center of the Octagon, and Neal leads off with an inside calf kick. Prates jabs him back, and Neal kicks to the same spot before going high. Neal crowds a kicking Prates but goes not let his hands go, instead resetting to score a short but powerful left hook. Prates spins with a back kick to the stomach and kicks him in the front leg when planting, and Neal bull-rushes him. Prates tries for a jump knee, and Neal catches it and fires back with his right hand a few times. Prates reclaims his limb and resets, where he goes high with punches. Neal jabs him to the body and makes Prates back off with long punches, while Prates scores a few hard calf kicks. Prates darts in and out with a jab, and Neal crowds him with punches before Prates circles all the way around the cage. Prates sinks a leg kick home, and he is out of the way before Neal can get to him.
Both men connect with single left hands before bailing, and Prates calms himself down and looses two punches down the middle along with a step-in knee. Neal fires back with a vengeance, landing at least partially on his opponent and kicking him in the chest. Neal jacks Prates in the jaw with a left hand, and Prates responds with a crisp left to the body and then a knee to the same spot. Some swelling develops under Neal’s left eye, and Prates notices it and aims a spinning wheel kick at it. The kick pops off the guard, but Prates’ jab finds its target. Neal does not seem concerned, cracking Prates on the way in. Prates gathers a head of steam and loose a one-two, a body kick, a knee, two more punches and a jumping knee in one heck of a combination. Neal grabs him at the end of it to turn him to the cage, and Prates makes fun of him for trying to wrestle. Neal lets him go, and Prates blasts him with punches and chases him around the cage with an elbow strike. With seconds left on the clock, the Brazilian spins like a top and demolishes Neal with a spinning back elbow. The sound of the blow echoes through the United Center, and blood sprays from an open wound on the side of his temple. Herzog waves the fight off with a second to go on the clock, and Prates has bounced back from a tough loss with a spectacular knockout of an insanely durable Neal. On his post-fight interview, Prates gives it up for the Fighting Nerds team, remarks that he will be celebrating his birthday tomorrow, asks for a fight in Rio de Janeiro in October along with a post-fight bonus—which UFC chief Dana White grants both immediately—and pitches that the UFC sign up his training partner, LFA flyweight champ Marcos Degli.

The Official Result
Carlos Prates def. Geoff Neal R1 4:59 via KO (Spinning Back Elbow)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Carlos Prates

Angelo thinks Prates is the better striker with power, accuracy, and cardio, and expects a striking match. He notes Neal may shoot takedowns but Prates should be ready. He hopes for a showcase performance from Prates to build him back up after his loss to Ian Garry.

"Carlos should win here. I think he's the better striker. There should be mostly striking going on here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Carlos Prates

Big Brady picks Carlos Prates to win by first-round knockout. He notes Prates has long reach, power, and fast combinations, and when he gets going he is very dangerous. He worries about Prates' slow starts but thinks Neal will force him to engage. He mentions Prates' brutal knockouts of Trevin Giles and others. He doesn't love the moneyline but thinks Prates can knock out Neal, who has a solid chin but can be hit.

Prates by KO, round 1
"I'm going to take Pches to win this fight. I'm going to take him to win this fight by first round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean pick date unknown
Carlos Prates

Connor picks Prates, but with hesitation, acknowledging that Prates' game is limited and not built for elite competition, as seen in the Ian Garry fight. He notes that Neal is durable and will make it tough, but Prates' pressure and dangerous striking could overwhelm Neal, who tends to let opponents dictate the fight. Connor hopes Prates has learned from the Garry fight and can implement adjustments.

Neal opened at +330, currently +190; Prates opened at -400, currently -225
"I'm going to pick Prates just cause I'm not going to fall off the bandwagon. And I think this is a winnable fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

The host views Neal as underrated and tough, and believes his speed and explosiveness will allow him to land big shots on Prates throughout the fight. He expects Neal to win on the scorecards as the underdog.

"I think the speed and explosivity of Neil will allow him to land big shots on Proches throughout the 15 minutes here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Carlos Prates

The Guru picks Carlos Prates to finish Geoff Neal, citing Prates' lateral movement and ability to find outside foot position. He notes that Neal struggles against fighters who move side-to-side, as seen in his fight with Neil Magny. The Guru believes Prates will land knees up the middle and finish Neal in the late first or second round. He also mentions that Prates nearly finished Ian Garry and has shown finishing ability against stationary opponents.

Late first round or second round finish; knees up the middle
"I think we're going to see this get a little bit scrappy. And I actually think we're going to see this end up being a Carlos Pres late first round or second round finish over Jeff Neil."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

Zane is tempted to pick Neal, noting that Neal is durable, fast, and has a limited but effective game against elite opponents. He points out that Prates struggles with complex problems and has never faced a fellow southpaw. Zane believes Neal could pressure Prates and win rounds with his boxing and durability, but he is not fully confident due to Neal's tendency to let opponents dictate the fight.

Neal opened at +330, currently +190; Prates opened at -400, currently -225
"I'm tempted to take Geoff Neal. I think there's a bad version of this fight where Jeff Neil still makes it tough and might just take the rounds."
CANCEL vs Carlos Prates
TKO (knee injury) R1 1:30 · UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · Oct 26, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Geoff Neal 1 18 of 30 60% 21 of 34 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:27
Rafael dos Anjos 0 4 of 13 30% 4 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Geoff Neal 1 18 of 30 60% 21 of 34 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:27
Rafael dos Anjos 0 4 of 13 30% 4 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Geoff Neal 18 of 30 60% 12 of 24 3 of 3 3 of 3 13 of 24 0 of 0 5 of 6
Rafael dos Anjos 4 of 13 30% 2 of 10 1 of 1 1 of 2 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Geoff Neal 18 of 30 60% 12 of 24 3 of 3 3 of 3 13 of 24 0 of 0 5 of 6
Rafael dos Anjos 4 of 13 30% 2 of 10 1 of 1 1 of 2 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

Angelo picks Geoff Neal but is not confident enough to bet. He notes Neal is younger, has good takedown defense and hands, and should win if the fight stays standing. However, he acknowledges RDA could get takedowns and grind out a decision. He will leave this fight alone due to the risk.

Will leave this fight alone; no bet.
"I think Jeff Neil wins... but I just don't have the nuts to bet on him."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

Big Brady strongly favors Neal, calling it a bad matchup for RDA. He notes that RDA struggles at welterweight against bigger guys and that Neal has elite takedown defense (87%). He believes Neal is the much better striker with more power and that RDA won't be able to take him down. He predicts Neal wins by decision, stuffing takedowns and doing better work on the feet.

"give me Jeff Neil here I think he wins this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Rafael dos Anjos

Cody leans toward Rafael dos Anjos as an underdog, noting that RDA's wrestling and cardio could neutralize Neal's striking. He points out that Neal has struggled against wrestlers like Neil Magny, and that RDA's takedown-heavy approach could frustrate Neal. However, Cody is hesitant because RDA is 40 and has lost to superior grapplers. He suggests a small play or pass.

"I feel like I'm leaning Rd but I feel like that's also a bad pick"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

Connor picks Neal, agreeing that RDA at welterweight is not the same bully. He notes that RDA's game relies on being a physical bully, which he can't do at welterweight, and that Neal is capable of putting together moments of offense that win rounds. Connor also mentions that RDA is almost 40 and has a lot of mileage.

"And that is kind of my core read here against Jeff Neil is that RDA might have a lot of success running his kind of game against Jeff Neil. But if I have to think who is capable of putting …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

Daniel Vreeland picks Geoff Neal to win, citing significant advantages in size, speed, and youth. He notes that Neal has faced much larger opponents recently and that RDA is a smaller fighter who may struggle with Neal's reach and takedown defense. Vreeland acknowledges Neal's inconsistency but believes this is a favorable matchup.

"give me Jeff me"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

Daniel Vreeland picks Neal, citing his size, youth, and recent competition against top welterweights. He notes that RDA's wrestling has dropped off significantly, giving up 19 takedowns in his last two fights. Vreeland believes Neal's speed and game plan will be too much for the aging RDA.

"give me the much bigger much younger hands of Steel Jeff Neil"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

Jeff Fox also picks Neal, emphasizing RDA's declining wrestling. He notes that Neal has sneaky good wrestling and that RDA's takedown defense has worsened. Fox expects Neal to be faster on the feet and implement a better game plan.

higher than 64.5 significant strikes for Neal (Underdog fantasy pick)
"Jeff Neil gonna be faster on the feet going to put together a better game plan here uh I'll take him in this one"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

Welterweight is not the best weight class for dos Anjos, and Neal should stop his takedowns and utilize his striking advantage. It wouldn't surprise me if Neal knocks dos Anjos out, but I lean with Neal winning on the scorecards.

Neal wins by decision (lean); possible knockout
"ultimately lean with Neil winning this fight on the scorecards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

Paul picks Geoff Neal, believing his reach and boxing will keep the fight standing. He notes that RDA's wrestling has not been as effective at welterweight against bigger opponents. Paul thinks Neal can stuff takedowns and use his length to outpoint RDA. He is not highly confident but leans Neal.

"I will not be getting to RDA"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

The Guru picks Geoff Neal by TKO in the second round, arguing that Rafael dos Anjos at 39 is outmatched physically. He notes Neal's size, power, and takedown defense (citing the Belal Muhammad fight) will be too much for RDA. He believes RDA's only path is to brawl in the pocket, which favors Neal. The Guru predicts a vicious finish, possibly ending RDA's career.

TKO second round
"I'll say second round TKO for Geoff Neal potentially in the first though I can see a real nasty finish."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

Zane clearly favored Neal, describing the fight as a 'sad days fight' for RDA. He noted that RDA's game of physical bullying and pressure doesn't work at welterweight because guys are too big and hit too hard. Zane pointed out that RDA got crushed by the first shot and blew out his knee, calling it an old man way to lose. He praised Neal's performance but remains skeptical about Neal's title prospects.

"jeff neil hafel dos angeles another real sad days fight um i don't i've never liked rda at welter weight"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

Zane picks Neal because RDA at welterweight is not the same relentless pressure fighter he was at lightweight; he's more reluctant to apply pressure and gets hit harder. Neal is a puncher who can keep his output up and win rounds, even if he gets stalled for one. Zane notes that RDA's wrestling is deteriorating and he's almost 40.

"So yeah, take it, Neil. Same. But, uh, it's a good fight. Like it is, it is a fight where if RDA can get Neil down, he might just be able to like, to sub him out, you know, he's …"
Decision (split) (30–27, 28–29, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · Feb 17, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ian Machado Garry 0 46 of 89 51% 57 of 102 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:45
Geoff Neal 0 67 of 135 49% 80 of 148 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ian Machado Garry 0 18 of 27 66% 19 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:10
Geoff Neal 0 20 of 38 52% 22 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
2 Ian Machado Garry 0 17 of 34 50% 23 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:20
Geoff Neal 0 23 of 43 53% 31 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
3 Ian Machado Garry 0 11 of 28 39% 15 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:15
Geoff Neal 0 24 of 54 44% 27 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ian Machado Garry 46 of 89 51% 25 of 64 10 of 13 11 of 12 38 of 79 8 of 10 0 of 0
Geoff Neal 67 of 135 49% 39 of 96 18 of 27 10 of 12 65 of 133 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ian Machado Garry 18 of 27 66% 11 of 20 2 of 2 5 of 5 16 of 25 2 of 2 0 of 0
Geoff Neal 20 of 38 52% 10 of 24 7 of 10 3 of 4 20 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Ian Machado Garry 17 of 34 50% 10 of 24 4 of 6 3 of 4 11 of 26 6 of 8 0 of 0
Geoff Neal 23 of 43 53% 16 of 34 5 of 7 2 of 2 22 of 42 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Ian Machado Garry 11 of 28 39% 4 of 20 4 of 5 3 of 3 11 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Geoff Neal 24 of 54 44% 13 of 38 6 of 10 5 of 6 23 of 53 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Ian Machado Garry

Angelo picks Ian Garry, citing his superior striking, hand speed, and footwork. He notes Garry is hittable but believes he can control range and avoid Neal's power. He plans to bet Geoff Neal inside the distance decision no action, as Neal is durable and has finishing upside. He is rooting for Neal but thinks Garry wins.

Geoff Neal wins inside distance (decision no action)
"I do think Ian Gary wins though but he's not going to be anywhere near my safety parlay"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

Big Brady picks Geoff Neal as a dog to win by second-round knockout. He notes Gary's poor striking defense (53%) and history of getting dropped, while Neal has heavy hands (nicknamed 'Hands of Steel'). He acknowledges Gary is likely winning minutes but believes Neal's power gives him a live chance to land a big shot. He mentions Neal's past health issues but thinks if he's healthy, he can knock Gary out.

Neal by KO, round 2
"I'm actually G to take Jeff Neil here as a dog I'm gonna take Jeff Neil to to land a big shot and knock out and Gary here I'll say he knocks him out in the second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Ian Machado Garry

Cody picks Garry, emphasizing his speed and range management. He notes Neal is a one-dimensional boxer who struggles with lateral movement, as seen against Wonderboy. He expects Garry to use his jab and footwork to outpoint Neal, though he acknowledges Neal's power. He dislikes Garry's persona but believes he wins on volume.

"I think he wins more often than none on volume so could he clip Neil and put him away yeah but I think probably a decision stay to the outside pitter patter stay smart..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident pick date unknown
Ian Machado Garry

Daniel Vreeland picks Ian Machado Garry, citing his cleaner technical striking, better distance management, and superior striking defense. He notes Garry's leg kick heavy game plan against Magny (43/43 leg kicks) and believes Neal's hot-and-cold form since his near-death experience makes him unreliable. He also mentions Garry's takedown defense and five-round experience.

"I'm picking Ian Gary here... I think he's overall a cleaner technical striker."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

Neal is a deadly combination striker with power. He can close the pocket and exchange with Garry, opening a knockout opportunity. Garry relies on length and reach, but Neal's experience and technical advantages lead to a second-round KO.

"I think he can pull go out there and pull off the upset with a second round knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Ian Machado Garry

Paul picks Garry despite wanting him to lose due to his persona. He notes Garry's length, technical striking, and ability to stay at range. He thinks Neal is one-dimensional and struggles with mobile strikers, as seen in the Wonderboy fight. He expects Garry to outpoint Neal with volume and lateral movement, though he acknowledges Neal's power threat.

"the pick's going to be Gary I don't I I I want him to lose though so I I know you're not supposed to let your emotions get in the way of money but it's like I would feel dirty …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

The MMA Guru picks Geoff Neal, citing Ian Garry's vulnerability to being caught on the chin and his lack of KO power in the UFC. He notes Garry's short reach for his height and his recent camp disruptions. He believes Neal's high guard and toughness will allow him to survive and land hooks, predicting a late round one or round two KO.

"I'm going Jeff Neal... you can't get dropped by Tekashi Sato and expect me not to pick Jeff Neal to finish you off."
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 4:17 · UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · Mar 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 69 of 145 47% 69 of 145 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:12
Geoff Neal 0 113 of 179 63% 120 of 186 0 of 4 0% 1 0 3:43
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 29 of 54 53% 29 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:48
Geoff Neal 0 43 of 64 67% 46 of 67 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:37
2 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 20 of 57 35% 20 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
Geoff Neal 0 35 of 70 50% 35 of 70 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:51
3 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 20 of 34 58% 20 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Geoff Neal 0 35 of 45 77% 39 of 49 0 of 2 0% 1 0 2:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Shavkat Rakhmonov 69 of 145 47% 63 of 136 4 of 6 2 of 3 57 of 129 12 of 16 0 of 0
Geoff Neal 113 of 179 63% 69 of 130 39 of 44 5 of 5 74 of 131 39 of 48 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 29 of 54 53% 27 of 51 1 of 1 1 of 2 23 of 47 6 of 7 0 of 0
Geoff Neal 43 of 64 67% 26 of 44 17 of 20 0 of 0 32 of 50 11 of 14 0 of 0
2 Shavkat Rakhmonov 20 of 57 35% 18 of 53 1 of 3 1 of 1 19 of 55 1 of 2 0 of 0
Geoff Neal 35 of 70 50% 20 of 54 13 of 14 2 of 2 25 of 56 10 of 14 0 of 0
3 Shavkat Rakhmonov 20 of 34 58% 18 of 32 2 of 2 0 of 0 15 of 27 5 of 7 0 of 0
Geoff Neal 35 of 45 77% 23 of 32 9 of 10 3 of 3 17 of 25 18 of 20 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Angelo is confident in Shavkat Rakhmonov, calling him an absolute savage who can submit, knock out, or outwrestle opponents. He notes that Rakhmonov is on a different level and should get the job done. Angelo thinks -500 is fine for parlays.

"I love shaft cat here I think he's on an entirely different level I think he does what he wants I think he gets it done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Big Brady picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, citing his size, power, and submission game. He notes Neal has good takedown defense but was taken down by Neil Magny, and Rakhmonov is a better wrestler. He predicts a second-round submission for Rakhmonov, but acknowledges if the fight stays standing, it gets interesting.

second round submission
"I like shopkop by submission... I'll say second round submission win for shot rockmanov"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Cody is high on Rakhmonov, calling him 'the truth' and praising his well-rounded game, clinch work, and finishing ability. He thinks Neal's power is a threat but that Rakhmonov's grappling and fight IQ will be too much. He expects Rakhmonov to win but is unsure if he finishes Neal.

Over 1.5 takedowns for Rakhmonov; considers inside the distance but not confident
"I think he's the truth and he's extremely well-rounded"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident pick date unknown
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Connor picks Rakhmonov confidently, noting Neal's limited toolkit (left hand, left kick) and inability to adjust. He expects Rakhmonov to use his creativity and clinch work to overwhelm Neal, who will likely run into clinches where Rakhmonov can wrestle and land strikes. He acknowledges Neal's toughness and power but sees the matchup as stylistically poor for Neal.

Mentions Rakhmonov opened at -435, now -528; Neal +350 to +378.
"It's hard not to see Rakhmonov just sort of ending up in a winning position at some point."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident pick date unknown
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Jacob is confident in Shavkat Rakhmonov, noting that his toughest test on paper was Neil Magny, whom he dominated. He believes Rakhmonov is too rangy and skilled for Geoff Neal, who relies on power. Jacob expects a first or second round finish.

first or second round finish
"I think it's a first or second second round finish"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Rakhmonov is a pressure grappler with a 100% finish rate. Neal is a good striker but has struggled against pressure grapplers. Rakhmonov will take the fight to the ground and submit Neal. The fight doesn't go to decision.

fight doesn't go to decision, Rakhmonov by submission
"fight doesn't go to the decision is going to be my favorite spot for this matchup... I'm still going to end up going with the shot Cat Rock one outside to win this fight via submission"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Paul agrees with Cody that Rakhmonov is the truth and expects him to win. He notes Neal's takedown defense is good but thinks Rakhmonov is a different level. He likes the over 1.5 takedowns prop for Rakhmonov.

Over 1.5 takedowns for Rakhmonov (-155)
"I think shop costs the truth won't be backing Neil"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Shavkat Rakhmonov

The MMA Guru picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, despite noting the odds are too wide. He questions Neal's recent performances and believes Rakhmonov's wild style and grappling will be too much, though he acknowledges Neal's KO power.

Comments on odds being too wide
"I'm gonna go with shav cat rachmanov... I do not agree that he should be a six to one favorite here."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Zane agrees, highlighting Neal's predictability and lack of adaptability. He notes Rakhmonov's willingness to experiment and clinch, and that Neal's straight-line entries will lead to clinches where Rakhmonov can dominate. He sees Neal's only path as an early knockout, but Rakhmonov's size and confidence make that unlikely.

"Neil will also lead himself to the clinch. He's going to get wrestled in the clinch."
WIN vs Vicente Luque
KO (punches) R3 2:01 · UFC on ESPN: Santos vs. Hill · Aug 06, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Geoff Neal 0 97 of 203 47% 97 of 203 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Vicente Luque 2 121 of 211 57% 125 of 215 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Geoff Neal 0 30 of 80 37% 30 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Vicente Luque 1 52 of 93 55% 53 of 94 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
2 Geoff Neal 0 51 of 91 56% 51 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Vicente Luque 0 40 of 75 53% 43 of 78 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:40
3 Geoff Neal 0 16 of 32 50% 16 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Vicente Luque 1 29 of 43 67% 29 of 43 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Geoff Neal 97 of 203 47% 56 of 156 26 of 31 15 of 16 91 of 195 6 of 8 0 of 0
Vicente Luque 121 of 211 57% 113 of 202 5 of 6 3 of 3 103 of 186 17 of 22 1 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Geoff Neal 30 of 80 37% 20 of 67 8 of 10 2 of 3 29 of 79 1 of 1 0 of 0
Vicente Luque 52 of 93 55% 48 of 89 3 of 3 1 of 1 49 of 87 2 of 3 1 of 3
2 Geoff Neal 51 of 91 56% 28 of 68 15 of 15 8 of 8 46 of 85 5 of 6 0 of 0
Vicente Luque 40 of 75 53% 36 of 70 2 of 3 2 of 2 33 of 66 7 of 9 0 of 0
3 Geoff Neal 16 of 32 50% 8 of 21 3 of 6 5 of 5 16 of 31 0 of 1 0 of 0
Vicente Luque 29 of 43 67% 29 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0 21 of 33 8 of 10 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Vicente Luque

Angelo picks Vicente Luque, believing this will be a striking match since Geoff Neal rarely wrestles. He favors Luque's better striking differential, cleaner footwork, speed, and higher volume. He acknowledges Luque's grappling holes but doesn't think Neal will exploit them. He is pretty confident in Luque to get the win.

"strike for strike i like lucay to win not only does he have better striking differential but he's got cleaner footwork better speed and higher volume"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Vicente Luque

Big Brady picks Vicente Luque, citing his durability, chin, and willingness to brawl. He notes that Geoff Neal has looked off in his last three fights and may not be the same killer he was earlier in his UFC run. He believes Luque's submission game is dangerous if the fight goes to the mat, and that Neal's takedown defense is good but he is unlikely to wrestle. He predicts a competitive decision win for Luque, though he acknowledges Neal's power and the possibility of a finish.

decision win prediction
"i think luke does win this one i'm going to say by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Vicente Luque

Cody also picks Luque, citing his volume, footwork, and ability to work the body and legs. He notes that Luque is hittable but durable, and that Neal hasn't knocked anyone out since Mike Perry three years ago. Cody believes Luque's sharpness and output will be too much for Neal, who has looked unmotivated in recent losses.

Luque by decision (suggested at +625)
"I'm going to take Luque as well... he's got excellent footwork... I gotta go with Luque by decision because I do think Jeff Neal's super durable."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

Daniel Levi picks Geoff Neal as an underdog, believing the southpaw stance will neutralize Luque's calf kicks and open up liver kicks. He thinks Neal's speed and footwork can frustrate Luque, and if Neal is truly healthy again, he can win a decision or even score a knockout. Levi acknowledges Luque's power and finishing ability but likes the plus-155 price and sees this as a fight that could go either way.

Bet 2 units on Neal at +155; expects decision but open to KO
"I took the plus 155 odds on Jeff Neal I put two units on it"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Vicente Luque

Paul picks Luque, noting that Luque has more ways to win and is historically durable. He mentions that Luque hasn't landed a takedown since 2017 but is a great grappler in scrambles. Paul thinks Luque wins about 65-70% of the time and will wait for a better price. He also notes that Neal has looked unmotivated in recent fights.

Luque by decision (suggested at +625)
"I like Vicente Luque... he's got more options more ways to win this fight... I think Luque wins probably around 65 70 percent."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

The MMA Guru picks Geoff Neal as an underdog by 29-28 decision. He thinks Luque takes too long to get going in three-rounders and Neal's power will earn respect. He believes Neal can keep range and avoid brawling, similar to how Randy Brown and Nico Price had success. He predicts Neal wins the first round clearly, edges the second, and survives the third.

"i'm gonna go with jeff neal... i think luke takes too long to get going in three-rounders and neil's got a power that will make luke respect him"
Decision (split) (28–29, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · Dec 11, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Geoff Neal 0 85 of 161 52% 86 of 162 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Santiago Ponzinibbio 0 91 of 229 39% 91 of 229 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:23
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Geoff Neal 0 20 of 41 48% 21 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Santiago Ponzinibbio 0 26 of 63 41% 26 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Geoff Neal 0 19 of 47 40% 19 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Santiago Ponzinibbio 0 26 of 73 35% 26 of 73 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:23
3 Geoff Neal 0 46 of 73 63% 46 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Santiago Ponzinibbio 0 39 of 93 41% 39 of 93 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Geoff Neal 85 of 161 52% 73 of 145 5 of 9 7 of 7 85 of 161 0 of 0 0 of 0
Santiago Ponzinibbio 91 of 229 39% 62 of 195 12 of 17 17 of 17 90 of 228 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Geoff Neal 20 of 41 48% 13 of 33 2 of 3 5 of 5 20 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Santiago Ponzinibbio 26 of 63 41% 17 of 54 5 of 5 4 of 4 25 of 62 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Geoff Neal 19 of 47 40% 16 of 41 2 of 5 1 of 1 19 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
Santiago Ponzinibbio 26 of 73 35% 15 of 61 4 of 5 7 of 7 26 of 73 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Geoff Neal 46 of 73 63% 44 of 71 1 of 1 1 of 1 46 of 73 0 of 0 0 of 0
Santiago Ponzinibbio 39 of 93 41% 30 of 80 3 of 7 6 of 6 39 of 93 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

Big Brady picks Geoff Neal to win by knockout, but with low confidence due to Neal's recent DUI and gun possession arrest. He notes that Neal has a power advantage and reach advantage over Ponzinibbio, who is 35 and coming off a layoff and a knockout loss. However, Neal's preparation is a major concern. Brady says if Neal shows up focused, he has a good chance, but he is not sure the fight will even happen.

Neal by knockout in round 1
"i'll take neil to get the win i think a lot of people are counting them out i definitely understand why but i don't take neil to get the knockout here in the first round"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident pick date unknown
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Daniel Levi picks Santiago Ponzinibbio to win a war of attrition. He notes that both fighters nearly died from medical issues, but Ponzinibbio looked better in his last fight against Miguel Baeza, shaking off rust. Levi questions whether Geoff Neal has recovered from his sepsis and heart failure, citing poor performances against Wonderboy and Neil Magny. He believes Ponzinibbio's jab, straight right, calf kicks, and takedown defense will be too much. Levi expects Ponzinibbio to be more aggressive and meaner.

"give me santiago ponzinibio to win a war of attrition here once again"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

Neal is the more technical striker and will counter Ponzinibbio's aggressive pressure effectively. Ponzinibbio has defensive flaws and is hittable, especially against a counter-striker. Neal's straight right and speed should find the mark, and a knockout is possible. The underdog odds provide value.

by KO
"i'm going jeff neal again a couple contrarian picks compared to what i've been seeing out there recently but i feel decent about it here in jeff know especially at these underdog odds"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Santiago Ponzinibbio

The MMA Guru picks Santiago Ponzinibbio to win by decision, citing his experience, technical striking, and ability to pressure. He notes that Geoff Neal had a troubled training camp (jail time) and has shown vulnerability against pressure fighters. He predicts Ponzinibbio will win 30-27.

30-27 decision win
"i'm going to go with santiago ponzibio here over jeff neal um i was picking ponzinio anyway more experienced better technically on the feet"
Expert Picks (4)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

Big Brady thinks Neal's power will be the difference, as he hits like a truck and Magny has been dropped many times. He notes Neal has 92% takedown defense, so Magny will struggle to take him down. Brady expects Neal to land the harder shots and eventually find a knockout, predicting a third-round finish. He says the line at -190 is a bit high and would prefer -150, so he's not betting it but picks Neal to win.

Neal by knockout (third round)
"I'm going to take jeff neal to win i'm going to take him to win by i'll say knockout i'll say knockout here."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

Daniel Levi picks Geoff Neal but expresses hesitation due to Neal's near-death experience and subsequent loss to Wonder Boy. He questions Neal's mental and physical state but believes if Neal is the same fighter, he has the speed and power to beat Magny. He notes Neal's grappling ability and body lock takedowns as potential tools. He hopes Neal is healthy and can get back on track.

"if jeff is anything like the the hot prospect that i said was going to go on to be a top 10 guy and be a top five guy then i think he's got the speed i think he's got the power"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Neil Magny

The host likes Neil Magny as a live underdog, citing his unorthodox style, reach, and cardio. He believes Magny will frustrate Neal with his jab and clinch work, and that Neal's hesitation from the Wonderboy fight will carry over. He expects a decision win for Magny.

Magny by decision +265, fight goes the distance -125
"i think neil magni is a live underdog i think magni plus 265 by decision is a is a nice looking play"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Geoff Neal

The MMA Guru picks Geoff Neal over Neil Magny, criticizing Magny's recent performance against Michael Chiesa as embarrassing. He believes Neal is more technically sound and will chop down Magny's legs, work body shots, and eventually get a third-round TKO. He notes Neal's ability to pour it on in the third round, as seen in the Belal Muhammad fight.

third round tko
"i'm going with jeff neal i think jeffrey neal was gonna go out there get a ko ... i'd say third round tko for jeff now"