vs
+120 -142
UFC on ESPN: Rodriguez vs. Waterson · May 08, 2021 · Middleweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: Rodriguez vs. Waterson Next Fight
Age 37
Height 6' 0"
Reach 77.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 33
Height 6' 3"
Reach 76.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Phil Hawes
5.33 SLpM
59.0% Str. Acc.
3.72 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
2.11 TD Avg
34.0% TD Acc.
90.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Kyle Daukaus
3.32 SLpM
53.0% Str. Acc.
2.9 SApM
42.0% Str. Def.
2.08 TD Avg
25.0% TD Acc.
82.0% TD Def.
2.1 Sub. Avg
Phil Hawes
Moneyline
FanDuel +120
KO/TKO
BetWay +210
Submission
BetWay +1600
Decision
BetWay +500
Kyle Daukaus
Moneyline
FanDuel -142
KO/TKO
BetWay +500
Submission
BetWay +240
Decision
BetWay +275
Phil Hawes - Fight History
LOSS vs Brunno Ferreira
KO (punches) R1 4:55 · UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · Jan 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brunno Ferreira 0 13 of 27 48% 13 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Phil Hawes 1 19 of 43 44% 24 of 49 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:37
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brunno Ferreira 0 13 of 27 48% 13 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Phil Hawes 1 19 of 43 44% 24 of 49 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:37
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brunno Ferreira 13 of 27 48% 8 of 18 4 of 7 1 of 2 12 of 24 1 of 3 0 of 0
Phil Hawes 19 of 43 44% 18 of 38 0 of 4 1 of 1 15 of 33 0 of 3 4 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brunno Ferreira 13 of 27 48% 8 of 18 4 of 7 1 of 2 12 of 24 1 of 3 0 of 0
Phil Hawes 19 of 43 44% 18 of 38 0 of 4 1 of 1 15 of 33 0 of 3 4 of 7
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jan 6, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Angelo leans Phil Hawes despite his suspect chin, believing he is the better fighter overall with superior wrestling and athleticism. He fears Hawes will get caught striking with Brunno Ferreira, who hits hard. He hopes Hawes uses his wrestling to take Ferreira down. He advises not betting on this fight due to volatility.

"I am still going to Pi Phil I just have a soft spot for my highlevel wrestlers."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jan 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

Big Brady acknowledges Phil Hawes is better in every skill except durability. He notes Hawes has a questionable chin and has been knocked out brutally. Ferreira has power, and Brady fears Hawes will get caught despite likely winning early. He picks Ferreira by first-round knockout, unable to trust Hawes' chin.

first round knockout
"I'm GNA take Bruno Ferrera first round knockout H is probably looking good up until he's not"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jan 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Cody picks Hawes despite historically fading him, because he sees a path to victory via wrestling. He notes that both fighters have similar power and durability issues, but Hawes has a wrestling background that could allow him to take Ferreira down and maul him. He admits it's a risky pick and expects Hawes might still find a way to lose.

"I'm gonna take Phil HW"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

Daniel Vreeland picks Brunno Ferreira to knock out Phil Hawes. He praises Hawes's athleticism and skills but notes his weak chin, predicting Hawes will school Ferreira until he gets caught. Vreeland believes Ferreira's power and Judo background will be enough to finish Hawes, as Hawes has been knocked out repeatedly.

"I think Phil Hawes is going to look really good until Bruno Ferrera knocks him out unfortunately."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Oct 1, 2025 (fight day)

James does not discuss this fight in the transcript.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jan 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

Brunno Ferreira is a BJJ black belt with power in his hands, but he was knocked out in his last fight against Nursulton Ruziboev. Phil Hawes has durability issues and has been finished in his last two fights, but he starts fast with explosive power. Both fighters have knockout power and questionable chins, making this a coin flip. I lean slightly to Ferreira because I trust his durability a bit more, but this fight likely ends in the first round. I'm passing on a moneyline bet and might play the 'fight doesn't start round 2' prop.

Fight doesn't start round 2 (under 1.5 rounds)
"I'm going to go with faera and FAA by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

Paul picks Ferreira by first-round KO, noting that Hawes has a weak chin and Ferreira has devastating power. He believes the fight will end early, either by Ferreira knockout or Hawes taking him down, but he prefers the KO prop. He took the bet at +275 early in the week.

Brunno Ferreira KO round 1 +275
"I'm taking Bruno Ferrera ko1 plus 275"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

The MMA Guru picks Brunno Ferreira, focusing on Phil Hawes' weak chin. He lists Hawes' KO losses to Chris Curtis, Roman Dolidze, and Ikram Aliskerov, noting that one clean shot puts him out. He believes Ferreira can land at least five clean punches and one will knock Hawes out cold.

"I'm going to bet that Bruno FAA can land at least five clean punches on the chin of Phil hores in this fight and I think if he lands five of them one of them is going to put him …"
LOSS vs Ikram Aliskerov
KO (punches) R1 2:10 · UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · May 06, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ikram Aliskerov 0 17 of 28 60% 17 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Phil Hawes 1 20 of 33 60% 20 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ikram Aliskerov 0 17 of 28 60% 17 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Phil Hawes 1 20 of 33 60% 20 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ikram Aliskerov 17 of 28 60% 4 of 14 10 of 11 3 of 3 17 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Phil Hawes 20 of 33 60% 13 of 24 6 of 8 1 of 1 19 of 31 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ikram Aliskerov 17 of 28 60% 4 of 14 10 of 11 3 of 3 17 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Phil Hawes 20 of 33 60% 13 of 24 6 of 8 1 of 1 19 of 31 1 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 30, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Angelo picks Phil Hawes but admits it's probably a bad pick. He bases his decision on Hawes' Division I national champion wrestling background and superior striking power and speed. The key question is whether Hawes can defend Aliskerov's relentless wrestling; if he does, he should win clearly. Angelo is concerned about Hawes' suspect chin and Aliskerov's non-stop pressure. He threw 0.2 units on Hawes at +175 for patriotic reasons, noting it's easier to finish a takedown than defend one.

0.2 units at +175 for America
"I'm gonna ride or die with American wrestling here Phil Hall's gonna be the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Big Brady picks Hawes but with low confidence, noting Hawes has a questionable chin and cardio. He believes Hawes has the wrestling to stuff Aliskerov's takedowns and the striking advantage. He predicts a first-round knockout for Hawes, but admits he's not betting this fight because Hawes is unreliable.

First round knockout prediction; probably not betting this fight
"I'm gonna pick Phil Hawes and you can never have confidence in in Phil Hawes honestly ever against anybody but I'm gonna take him to the stuff the takedown's here keep it on the feet and do the better work …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 3, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Cody sees Aliskerov as the pick but suggests live betting after the first round for a better price. He notes Hawes has explosive power but poor cardio and durability, and tends to fade. Aliskerov is a Russian grappler who can drag Hawes into deep waters. He expects Aliskerov to win by taking over in later rounds.

Over 1.5 rounds at even money; live betting Aliskerov after round 1
"I think -210 pre-flop yeah I would bet him because I think he's gonna win but I think we can get a much better price on that after the first"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 4, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Connor picks Aliskerov more confidently, arguing that Hawes' main problem is he doesn't think during fights and gets surprised. Aliskerov's pressure and grappling will force Hawes to think, which breaks his flow. He notes Hawes has not solved his core issue.

Aliskerov opened -309, now -189; Hawes opened +261, now +167.
"I feel pretty okay actually about picking Aliskerov. Phil Hawes just doesn't have it, man."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

The host picks Ikram Aliskerov to win inside the distance, likely in round two. He believes Aliskerov's wrestling and cardio will wear down Phil Hawes, who has durability and cardio issues. He notes Hawes' only chance is an early knockout, but expects Aliskerov to take over as the fight progresses.

Aliskerov inside the distance, round 2
"I'm picking the Russian fighter to get his hand raised and I think he does it inside the distance let's call it round two"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 3, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Paul picks Aliskerov but is not confident enough to bet at -210. He notes Hawes has a wrestling background and power, but his chin and cardio are suspect. He thinks Aliskerov's path is to survive the first round and then take over.

"I think ikram is the side at minus 210 I don't know if I'm going to attack it from a betting perspective though"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

The Guru picks Aliskerov, citing Hawes' terrible chin and recent leg injury from Roman Dolidze. He believes Aliskerov will have a wrestling advantage as the fight goes on, targeting Hawes' compromised leg. He notes Hawes hasn't looked good since the injury and is 34-35 years old.

"I'm gonna side with ikramalisker of here I just think he's going to be smart to shoot on one of the legs and make Phil Hall's balance on the other leg"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked May 4, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Zane picks Aliskerov hesitantly, citing Hawes' tendency to get caught and his mindless flow state. He notes Aliskerov's pressure and takedown threat could break Hawes' rhythm. However, he worries Aliskerov's striking is limited and he may not be able to finish Hawes.

Aliskerov opened -309, now -189; Hawes opened +261, now +167.
"I'm going to pick him. I hate to do it, but got to happen."
LOSS vs Roman Dolidze
KO (punches) R1 4:09 · UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · Oct 29, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Roman Dolidze 0 11 of 26 42% 15 of 31 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:46
Phil Hawes 1 18 of 42 42% 29 of 57 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Roman Dolidze 0 11 of 26 42% 15 of 31 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:46
Phil Hawes 1 18 of 42 42% 29 of 57 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Roman Dolidze 11 of 26 42% 5 of 15 5 of 9 1 of 2 11 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Phil Hawes 18 of 42 42% 15 of 38 2 of 3 1 of 1 14 of 36 2 of 4 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Roman Dolidze 11 of 26 42% 5 of 15 5 of 9 1 of 2 11 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Phil Hawes 18 of 42 42% 15 of 38 2 of 3 1 of 1 14 of 36 2 of 4 2 of 2
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Oct 25, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Big Brady picks Phil Hawes to win by decision, but expresses concern about Hawes' chin. He believes Hawes is the better fighter and will stuff Dolidze's takedowns and have success on the feet, but notes that Dolidze hits hard and Hawes has been knocked out before. He says Hawes should be the minute winner but cannot be overly confident due to durability issues.

Hawes wins by decision
"I'll go with Haws you can't be too confident in it because the chin but I do think he wins this fight I'll say he wins it by decision here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 26, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Cody leans toward Roman Dolidze as an underdog, believing he can land a big shot in the clinch. He notes Dolidze's power and the fact that Phil Hawes has durability issues. Cody mentions Dolidze by knockout at +500 as a possible small sprinkle, but is not confident overall.

Dolidze by knockout at +500 (small sprinkle)
"I think the leads is gonna land like just once like I think he's gonna knock him out"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Connor picks Phil Hawes confidently, arguing that Hawes's single-minded offense and ability to recover from being hurt are key. He notes that Dolidze is not a good striker and relies on clinching and grinding, but Hawes has the strength to stall in clinch situations. Connor believes Hawes's recent improvements at Sanford MMA and his proven durability against tough opponents give him the edge.

"I'm Dave. I'm taking Phil. I'm happy."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Oct 26, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Daniel Levi picks Phil Hawes but is hesitant due to Hawes' questionable chin. He praises Hawes' physical attributes, wrestling, and power, but notes he has been knocked out before. He expects Hawes to win unless he gets knocked out. He does not mention a bet.

"I'm gonna pick Phil Haas to win the fight but uh you know if he gets knocked out you know you can't act surprised."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Jacob picks Phil Hawes, believing he should be the better striker with a quick jab and can withstand Dolidze's grappling. He acknowledges Dolidze's relentless pressure and scrambling ability but thinks Hawes can win on the feet. He mentions possibly looking at Hawes by points.

Phil Hawes by points
"my official pick is Phil Hawes"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 27, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Hawes has improved his pacing and cardio, using grappling to grind out opponents. Dolidze is durable and aggressive, but Hawes is the better wrestler and should be able to control the fight. However, there are still questions about Hawes going the full 15 minutes. The decision prop at +210 is interesting but the moneyline is the safer play.

Hawes by decision +210
"the pick is Phil Hawes I'm going to be sitting back and just watching this one as a spectator but I think that Phil Haas is the side"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Paul picks Phil Hawes, noting his improved cardio, wrestling pedigree, and recent smarter fighting. He criticizes Dolidze's low volume, poor ring IQ, and reliance on leg locks. Paul believes Hawes can stuff takedowns and win a striking battle, though he admits he rarely picks Hawes and may curse him.

"I honestly just feel like he's fighting way smarter these days he's gonna be faster he's going to be able to stop this the takedowns get this fight standing and just chip away at him or land something big"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

The MMA Guru picks Phil Hawes over Roman Dolidze, believing Hawes' strength and wrestling will prevent Dolidze from controlling him against the cage. He notes Hawes' improved striking in his last fight against Roman, where he showed great defense. He thinks Dolidze loads up his shots, making them easier to see, and predicts Hawes will finish Dolidze in the third round as Dolidze slows down.

"I'm going to be going with Phil Hawes here over Roman Deliza"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 27, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Zane picks Phil Hawes but is hesitant, acknowledging Hawes's tendency to get hurt and his single-minded offense. He notes that Hawes has lost only to good fighters and that Dolidze's style is clingy and boring, but Hawes's lack of defense and tendency to get chin-checked are concerns. Zane ultimately trusts Hawes's offensive output and durability recovery over Dolidze's grinding approach.

"I'll go with you. I'll pick Phil Hall's, which it sounds like you're doing."
WIN vs Deron Winn
TKO (elbows) R2 4:25 · UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Emmett · Jun 18, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Phil Hawes 1 118 of 175 67% 126 of 191 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:47
Deron Winn 0 32 of 111 28% 34 of 114 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Phil Hawes 1 55 of 87 63% 56 of 88 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Deron Winn 0 17 of 44 38% 17 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Phil Hawes 0 63 of 88 71% 70 of 103 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:43
Deron Winn 0 15 of 67 22% 17 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Phil Hawes 118 of 175 67% 99 of 152 17 of 21 2 of 2 89 of 138 14 of 18 15 of 19
Deron Winn 32 of 111 28% 24 of 101 4 of 6 4 of 4 29 of 100 3 of 11 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Phil Hawes 55 of 87 63% 43 of 71 10 of 14 2 of 2 49 of 77 3 of 6 3 of 4
Deron Winn 17 of 44 38% 13 of 40 1 of 1 3 of 3 15 of 41 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Phil Hawes 63 of 88 71% 56 of 81 7 of 7 0 of 0 40 of 61 11 of 12 12 of 15
Deron Winn 15 of 67 22% 11 of 61 3 of 5 1 of 1 14 of 59 1 of 8 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 12, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Angelo picks Phil Hawes despite acknowledging Deron Winn's superior offensive wrestling stats (almost 5 takedowns per fight, 52% accuracy vs Hawes' 33%). He compares it to the Brendan Allen vs Jacob Malkoun fight, where the more talented fighter (Hawes) can lose if he doesn't initiate takedowns first. He notes Hawes is the better mixed martial artist but Winn has a clear path if he shoots first.

"i am gonna pick phil hawes here because he is the better mixed martial artist but there is a clear path for duron win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Big Brady picks Phil Hawes to win by first-round knockout. He acknowledges Hawes has a questionable chin and cardio, but believes Hawes is much bigger with a six-inch height and 7.5-inch reach advantage, and has 100% takedown defense to stuff Winn's wrestling. He expects Hawes to knock out Winn early, likely in the first round.

first round knockout
"I think phil haas finishes the wrong win in that very first round so phil has first round knockout to kick off the banger of a card"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Cody picks Hawes but is cautious due to Hawes' chin and cardio. He thinks Hawes' striking and power are advantages, and Winn's weight cuts and cardio issues are problematic. He suggests waiting for weigh-ins to see Winn's condition.

"i think he's able to maybe get the job done down the stretch"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 16, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Daniel Levi picks Phil Hawes confidently, stating Hawes has everything except a chin: D1 wrestling, one-punch power, and physicality. He believes Deron Winn is too short (5'4") and will struggle to take Hawes down. Levi thinks Hawes wins everywhere unless he gets knocked out, which is possible given his suspect chin. He expects Hawes to dominate and win, possibly by knockout.

Hawes -270; expects domination; Winn's only chance is a puncher's chance
"phil haas don't get knocked out and you win this fight literally everywhere it goes"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Paul leans toward Hawes but is not confident. He notes both fighters are untrustworthy and the fight could be ugly. He thinks Hawes' reach and power are key, but Winn's wrestling could be a factor if he makes weight.

"i don't know i i would say both guys are not trustworthy"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

The MMA Guru picks Phil Hawes despite worrying about his weak chin, as seen in the Chris Curtis fight. He believes Hawes is much bigger and stronger than Deron Winn, who is too small for middleweight. He predicts Hawes will neutralize Winn's wrestling and land a knockout via a knee to the face in the second round.

ko in second round
"i'm going to be going with phil hawes here i worry... i do worry about his chin... phil gets a ko with a knee to the face in the second round"
LOSS vs Chris Curtis
KO (punches) R1 4:27 · UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · Nov 06, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Curtis 0 48 of 90 53% 49 of 91 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Phil Hawes 1 21 of 36 58% 22 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Curtis 0 48 of 90 53% 49 of 91 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Phil Hawes 1 21 of 36 58% 22 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Curtis 48 of 90 53% 24 of 63 15 of 18 9 of 9 46 of 85 2 of 5 0 of 0
Phil Hawes 21 of 36 58% 15 of 27 5 of 8 1 of 1 18 of 33 2 of 2 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Curtis 48 of 90 53% 24 of 63 15 of 18 9 of 9 46 of 85 2 of 5 0 of 0
Phil Hawes 21 of 36 58% 15 of 27 5 of 8 1 of 1 18 of 33 2 of 2 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Angelo picks Phil Hawes, highlighting his wrestling, power, and improved cardio. He notes that Hawes turned down a short-notice fight earlier, showing he takes his career seriously. He believes Hawes should win by using his wrestling to control Curtis, who is a welterweight moving up. He also mentions that Curtis has poor takedown defense and fades against wrestlers.

More more on monkey knife fight (strikes)
"phil has power phil has the wrestling phil should absolutely win this fight but chris could potentially stick and move his way to a decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Cody picks Curtis as a dog, citing his excellent cardio, technical boxing, and defensive wrestling. He notes Hawes is a fast starter who tires, and Curtis specializes in taking opponents into deep waters. He expects Curtis to win by late TKO, possibly round 3.

Curtis round 3
"we're going chris curtis"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 4, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Daniel Levi picks Phil Hawes to win, stating that Hawes is on a different level than Chris Curtis. He notes that Hawes has knockout power, D1 wrestling, and has improved significantly since his early losses. Levi believes Curtis's only path to victory is a lucky knockout, and that Hawes can win by decision or knockout. He mentions that Curtis is a welterweight moving up and that historically, Curtis loses to UFC-caliber opponents.

decision or knockout
"give me a phil haas for the dub"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Jacob picks Phil Hawes, emphasizing that Curtis has awful takedown defense and is a pure boxer. He urges Hawes to wrestle rather than strike, as Curtis has real power. He believes Hawes will take Curtis down and get a TKO finish in the first round. He also likes Hawes in DraftKings for takedowns.

Less less on monkey knife fight (strikes)
"if you're phil halls just wrestle man just wrestle get your win get out of there... i'm telling you phil if you try to strike with this guy it could be a problem"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Nov 5, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Phil Hawes

The host picks Hawes to win by decision, but he is not confident enough to bet him at -320. He notes Hawes gets hurt in fights and Curtis has knockout power. He considers a small sprinkle on Curtis round 3 at +1800-2500.

Curtis round 3 (+1800-2500)
"i'm gonna go phil haas to win this fight via decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Curtis as a dog. He mentions Curtis's story and motivation, and believes Hawes is vulnerable if the fight goes past the first round. He also likes Curtis round 3 as a prop.

Curtis round 3
"curtis round three as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

The Guru picks Phil Hawes, citing his size, reach, and power advantages over Chris Curtis, who is moving up from welterweight on short notice. He notes Hawes' KO wins and believes Curtis is not ready for this matchup. The Guru predicts a first-round KO for Hawes.

first round ko
"I'm going to be going with phillip hawes here um i get you can pick chris curtis but it's not smart to do so."
WIN vs Kyle Daukaus
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–26, 29–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Rodriguez vs. Waterson · May 08, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Phil Hawes 0 66 of 101 65% 157 of 210 2 of 4 50% 1 0 5:34
Kyle Daukaus 0 28 of 82 34% 52 of 113 0 of 7 0% 0 1 4:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Phil Hawes 0 16 of 22 72% 32 of 39 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:33
Kyle Daukaus 0 5 of 21 23% 18 of 37 0 of 2 0% 0 1 2:56
2 Phil Hawes 0 29 of 45 64% 48 of 65 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:35
Kyle Daukaus 0 22 of 51 43% 30 of 60 0 of 5 0% 0 0 1:17
3 Phil Hawes 0 21 of 34 61% 77 of 106 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:26
Kyle Daukaus 0 1 of 10 10% 4 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Phil Hawes 66 of 101 65% 42 of 75 23 of 25 1 of 1 33 of 57 18 of 19 15 of 25
Kyle Daukaus 28 of 82 34% 20 of 68 6 of 11 2 of 3 26 of 78 2 of 3 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Phil Hawes 16 of 22 72% 10 of 15 5 of 6 1 of 1 6 of 11 10 of 11 0 of 0
Kyle Daukaus 5 of 21 23% 2 of 15 2 of 5 1 of 1 4 of 18 1 of 2 0 of 1
2 Phil Hawes 29 of 45 64% 15 of 30 14 of 15 0 of 0 21 of 37 8 of 8 0 of 0
Kyle Daukaus 22 of 51 43% 17 of 44 4 of 5 1 of 2 21 of 50 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Phil Hawes 21 of 34 61% 17 of 30 4 of 4 0 of 0 6 of 9 0 of 0 15 of 25
Kyle Daukaus 1 of 10 10% 1 of 9 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Phil Hawes vs. Kyle Daukaus

Round 1
The new main card opener sees a middleweight clash between representatives of rival states New Jersey and Pennsylvania, as Hawes (10-2, 2-0 UFC) will ply his knockout-friendly trade against submission specialist Daukaus (10-1, 1-1 UFC). The third man in the cage for a fight that may not last long is referee Mark Smith, and there is no serious glove touch before the two get down to business. The blonde-haired Hawes comes out aggressively, throwing bombs and backing Daukaus up immediately. Hawes has a kick clip the cup, and there is a pause for just a second or two. Daukaus adjusts himself and throws back with heavy leather, and Hawes is either hurt or off-balance, as he slips back. Hawes interrupts an advancing Daukaus with a front kick, and he goes back to stalking the Philadelphia native down and throwing big strikes. Out of nowhere, Hawes ducks down, scoops Daukaus up and slams him down. Daukaus defends off his back with a guillotine choke, but he is immediately in danger for the Von Preux choke. Hawes recognizes this and presses his shoulder down, but he cannot finish it. Instead, Daukaus uses pure power to roll Hawes over and put him on his back. “Megatron” slides right into danger with a choke attempt from Daukaus, but he scrambles and gets out of harm’s way. When he gets to his knees, Daukaus takes his back. Hawes defends the hooks, powers back to his feet, and is quick to fight off a single leg takedown attempt from Daukaus. When he does not land it, Daukaus drops to his knees for a double, and that too comes up short. Hawes, while keeping himself upright, is landing short strikes to the body and head to make Daukaus think twice about his position. Hawes lifts Daukaus up with a knee to the chest, but he cannot get the Pennsylvanian off of him. Daukaus embraces the grind, pressing Hawes into the wire and putting his full body weight on his man. Both men try to get off elbows, but neither are successful. Daukaus sells out for a double, and Hawes sprawls against the cage and keeps his balance to fight off this attempt. Hawes introduces his knee to Daukaus’ torso, and the two separate with seconds to spare. Neither throw anything of note until the bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Daukaus
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Daukaus
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Daukaus

Round 2
The middleweights rush out of their corners to meet in the middle, but it does not take long for Hawes to push the pace and start backing Daukaus up against the fence. Daukaus tries to spring forward with a kick to the body, and Hawes interrupts him and lands a few punches. Daukaus swings a spinning strike, and Hawes does not completely avoid it. “Megatron” is suddenly rocked, and Daukaus lays into him with a salvo of punches to try to finish the job. Hawes gains the wherewithal to embrace the grappling, and even though he cannot get the takedown, he gains valuable time clearing his head. The two clinch briefly, and push off, where both men trade heavy shots. Daukaus gets the better of an exchange, and Hawes bends over and slams his right hand into the torso. A cracking right hand puts Daukaus on roller skates for a moment, and the Philadelphia native crashes in to clinch and try to take the fight down. Daukaus looks to trip his man down, attack singles or otherwise plant Hawes on his back, but the Sanford MMA fighter stands tall and looks frustrated. Hawes frames off to nail Daukaus with a stern elbow, and this forces Daukaus to backpedal quickly. Hawes parries a strike to fire back at Daukaus, and he mixes things up with body strikes and head shots. “Megatron” notices his body work is starting to make a difference, and he lifts up a knee to the body. The knee does not rise high enough, and it clunks straight into Daukaus’ cup. Thirty seconds are all Daukaus needs to catch his breath, and Hawes picks up where he left off with body shots. As he targets the body and again with impunity, Daukaus shoots in low for a takedown to stop this. Hawes stuffs it and pushes Daukaus back, where he drills Daukaus with a right hand and a front kick that nails Daukaus in the head when Daukaus bends over. Hawes hunts Daukaus down with strikes until the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hawes
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Hawes
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hawes

Round 3
Smith calls in the doctor between rounds to check a cut around Daukaus’ eye, but there is no concern and the fight clocks in normally. Hawes loads up on several big shots to begin the round, alternating between the head and body with punches and kicks. Hawes works the body, catches a body kick, and puts Daukaus on his back. Daukaus throws up his legs quickly to defend with a triangle choke off his back, but “Megatron” laughs it off, breaks the position and postures up in Daukaus’ guard. There may have been an eye poke for Hawes, but he is warned in passing as Daukaus complains. Daukaus opens and closes his guard to try to find a better way out, all while Hawes pounds on him with short strikes. Individually, they may not be especially damaging, but they are adding up quickly as time ticks off the clock. Daukaus punches the back of the head a few times in passing, and he grimaces when his own blood trickles into his eye. Hawes steps into half guard, where he begins to unleash a series of punches to try to pound Daukaus out. Daukaus twists and nearly climbs to his feet, but Hawes pushes him back over and continues to work him over with left hands. Smith asks for Daukaus to keep moving and defend himself, and Hawes uses this as an opportunity to start slamming down elbows. Hawes continues to batter Daukaus with punches and elbows, and once more, Hawes appears to scrape the eye with his fingers. Daukaus appears miserable as blood is in his eyes, Hawes relentlessly punches him, and he cannot do anything but get Hawes back to his full guard. The 10-second clapper leads Daukaus to close his guard to lock Hawes down, where he survives and does not take much more punishment until the fight is over.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Hawes (29-27 Hawes)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Hawes (29-27 Hawes)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Hawes (29-27 Hawes)

The Official Result
Phil Hawes def. Kyle Daukaus via Unanimous Decision (30-26, 30-26, 29-27)
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 6, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Big Brady picks Hawes but is not confident, noting Hawes is typically first-round-or-bust. He thinks Hawes needs to land an early knockout, otherwise Daukaus will take over. Brady likes the prop 'fight doesn't go to decision' and suggests live betting Daukaus if Hawes doesn't finish in the first round. He mentions Hawes's last fight went to decision but that was an anomaly. He picks Hawes by first-round knockout.

Fight doesn't go to decision; live bet Daukaus if Hawes doesn't finish first round
"I'm going to take cause to get that first round knockout might be a live betting situation but the prop i really do like is that fight doesn't go to decision."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 6, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Daniel Levi picks Phil Hawes, arguing that Hawes is underappreciated and has been rushed against tough competition. He notes Hawes' D1 wrestling, freak athleticism, and one-punch knockout power. He believes Hawes learned from his past mistakes and will win a decision, as he did against Imavov. He views Daukaus as an average athlete and black belt, and thinks Hawes can lean on him and get takedowns.

"i think phil has is so underappreciated to a point where like when this guy was three and noah as a pro they put him in there with andrew sanchez like what"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 7, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

The host favors Kyle Daukaus, believing his jiu-jitsu and cardio will be the difference. He expects Daukaus to survive Hawes' early power and then submit him later. He likes the under 2.5 rounds and Daukaus by submission prop.

under 2.5 -150, Daukaus by sub +250
"i really like dalkist in the spot kind of surprised at the land movement as in terms of making it closer of a pickum fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 3, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

The MMA Guru picks Kyle Daukaus over Phil Hawes, noting that Daukaus is the slight favorite. He believes Daukaus's smothering clinch game and technical stand-up will overwhelm Hawes, who showed a hole in his last fight against the cage. He predicts a 29-28 unanimous decision, with Daukaus winning the second and third rounds.

unanimous decision, 29-28
"i'm gonna be going with kyle alkaus here ... i just think it's a bad matchup"
Decision (majority) (28–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis · Feb 20, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Phil Hawes 0 31 of 54 57% 101 of 128 4 of 7 57% 0 0 11:06
Nassourdine Imavov 0 57 of 93 61% 87 of 124 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Phil Hawes 0 16 of 24 66% 41 of 50 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:38
Nassourdine Imavov 0 9 of 19 47% 20 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Phil Hawes 0 6 of 11 54% 36 of 44 1 of 4 25% 0 0 4:15
Nassourdine Imavov 0 16 of 25 64% 30 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Phil Hawes 0 9 of 19 47% 24 of 34 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:13
Nassourdine Imavov 0 32 of 49 65% 37 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Phil Hawes 31 of 54 57% 13 of 31 7 of 9 11 of 14 23 of 42 7 of 11 1 of 1
Nassourdine Imavov 57 of 93 61% 39 of 71 14 of 17 4 of 5 29 of 62 27 of 30 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Phil Hawes 16 of 24 66% 5 of 12 3 of 4 8 of 8 11 of 18 4 of 5 1 of 1
Nassourdine Imavov 9 of 19 47% 3 of 11 4 of 5 2 of 3 4 of 14 5 of 5 0 of 0
2 Phil Hawes 6 of 11 54% 3 of 6 2 of 2 1 of 3 4 of 8 2 of 3 0 of 0
Nassourdine Imavov 16 of 25 64% 8 of 17 6 of 6 2 of 2 9 of 17 6 of 7 1 of 1
3 Phil Hawes 9 of 19 47% 5 of 13 2 of 3 2 of 3 8 of 16 1 of 3 0 of 0
Nassourdine Imavov 32 of 49 65% 28 of 43 4 of 6 0 of 0 16 of 31 16 of 18 0 of 0
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Phil Hawes

Daniel Levi argues that Phil Hawes's early career was mismanaged, being thrown in with tough opponents too soon, but now he has matured and learned to pace himself. He highlights Hawes's D1 wrestling, one-punch knockout power, and improved defense. Levi believes Hawes will be too physical and explosive for Imavov, who fights with his hands down. He predicts a first-round knockout, noting that Imavov was pushed around by the smaller Jordan Williams.

first round knockout
"i'm going phil has to be a first round knockout"
WIN vs Jacob Malkoun
KO (punches) R1 0:18 · UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · Oct 24, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Phil Hawes 0 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jacob Malkoun 1 7 of 11 63% 7 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Phil Hawes 0 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jacob Malkoun 1 7 of 11 63% 7 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Phil Hawes 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jacob Malkoun 7 of 11 63% 7 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 9 0 of 0 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Phil Hawes 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jacob Malkoun 7 of 11 63% 7 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 9 0 of 0 2 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Phil Hawes vs. Jacob Malkoun

Round 1
In a matchup that might seem out of place on the main card among other bouts containing top-ranked fighters, exciting prospects Hawes (8-2, 0-0 UFC) and Malkoun (4-0, 0-0 UFC) nevertheless make their UFC debuts against one another at middleweight. Watching on to see which one pans out will be referee Jason Herzog, and a respectful glove touch begins the fight. Hawes pushes the pace early, chasing after Malkoun and landing a few serious punches. A right hand hurts Malkoun, and “Megatron” smells blood and unleashes a thunderous barrage of strikes. When Malkoun falls back to the fence, a right and a left hook put the Aussie not just down, but out cold as he falls face-first to the canvas. What a way to introduce yourself to the organization in your debut, doing so on one of the biggest of stages imaginable in lightning-quick fashion. Wow.

The Official Result
Phil Hawes def. Jacob Malkoun R1 0:18 via KO (Punches)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Big Brady picks Phil Hawes, citing his power and finishing ability (75% of wins by KO). He notes Malkoun's lack of experience (4-0) and that Hawes has faced better competition. He predicts a first-round knockout, but advises staying away from betting at -260.

first round knockout
"give me haws here you know seen him face some pretty decent competition i think better competition than malcoon here um i think he's going to get him out of there in that first round probably a first round knockout"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Oct 23, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Phil Hawes

Daniel Levi slightly leans with Phil Hawes based on experience and athleticism, noting that Hawes has paid his dues with tough fights against Luis Taylor and Julian Marquez. He questions Malkoun's level of competition, as he is only 4-0 against subpar opponents. Levi thinks it might be a dog-or-pass situation at the betting window, but as a pure pick he goes with Hawes.

Dog or pass situation; can't lay -240 on Hawes but picks him based on experience
"i'll slightly lean with the experience of phil haas and the athleticism but i wouldn't be surprised either way"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 19, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

The host picks Phil Hawes but with low confidence, citing his athleticism and power. He notes that Hawes has cardio and durability concerns, while Malkoun is inexperienced. He prefers the under 2.5 rounds if the line is favorable.

under 2.5 rounds
"i'm gonna go with my [ __ ] to win by tko in round two"
Kyle Daukaus - Fight History
SCHED vs Bo Nickal
UFC Freedom 250 · Jun 14, 2026
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert picked Jun 3, 2026 (11 days before fight)

AJ is hesitant on picking Daukaus because Nickal is a freak athlete and elite wrestler. He mentions Daukaus is tricky out of southpaw but does not commit to a pick.

"The reason I'm hesitant on picking Dawis is Bone Nickel is still a freak athlete and an elite elite level wrestler."
Submission R1 0:50 · UFC 322 · Nov 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kyle Daukaus 1 8 of 11 72% 8 of 11 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:17
Gerald Meerschaert 0 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kyle Daukaus 1 8 of 11 72% 8 of 11 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:17
Gerald Meerschaert 0 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kyle Daukaus 8 of 11 72% 8 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 1 4 of 7 0 of 0 4 of 4
Gerald Meerschaert 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kyle Daukaus 8 of 11 72% 8 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 1 4 of 7 0 of 0 4 of 4
Gerald Meerschaert 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kyle Daukaus vs. Gerald Meerschaert
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Daukaus (-375), Meerschaert (+295)

Round 1
Herb Dean is the referee. Daukaus immediately tags Meerschaert with a straight left. Daukaus wades in with a straight left hand that rocks Meerschaert, who is already in retreat mode. Meerschaert falls to the floor after absorbing another shot. Daukaus follows him down and tees off with hammerfists before locking in a brabo choke.
Daukaus powers Meerschaert to his back and applies the squeeze, and it’s only a matter of moments before the veteran middleweight is forced to tap out.
Daukaus now has back-to-back first round finishes since returning to the UFC.

The Official Result
Kyle Daukaus def. Gerald Meerschaert via Submission (Brabo Choke) R1 0:50
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

Angelo picks Kyle Daukaus, noting that Gerald Meerschaert has poor takedown accuracy and hasn't taken anyone down in three fights. Daukaus is a good grappler with length and solid takedown defense. Angelo is confident but questions the -325 odds, suggesting Daukaus' last win was against a distracted opponent.

"Kyle's going to be the pick, but I hate that this dude could even be in the same room as these odds."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

Big Brady picks Kyle Daukaus, noting his improved striking and power since being cut from the UFC. He criticizes Gerald Meerschaert's chin as 'dust' and his recent poor performances, including gassing out badly. Brady believes Daukaus is the better grappler and striker at this point and predicts a first-round knockout, referencing Daukaus's own claim that he will knock out Meerschaert.

first round knockout
"I'm going to go Kyle Dawkins to win this fight by first round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

Cody agrees with Paul, noting that Meerschaert is on a losing streak and has been knocked out multiple times. He points out that Daukaus is bigger and has better striking. Cody thinks Daukaus will finish the fight inside the distance, possibly by TKO in the first round. He is confident in the pick.

inside the distance by TKO
"Daukaus is the guy to put that nail in the coffin, so inside the distance by TKO possibly in the first round."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

Connor also picks Daukaus, agreeing with Zane. He notes that Meerschaert has lost a step and that Daukaus showed aggression and certainty in his last fight. However, he warns that Daukaus might get overly ambitious and get submitted, but overall trusts Daukaus to win.

Odds: Daukaus opened -260, currently -500.
"I think it's possible we might be getting a Kyle Dawkins, a young veteran run here."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

Daniel believes Daukaus is on a resurgence with newfound confidence and power, as shown in his knockout of Michelle Pereira. He expects Daukaus to feast on an aging Meerschaert, who has been finished in recent fights. He predicts a first-round knockout for Daukaus.

first round knockout
"I think that DACA is going to come out here and feast on the carcass again. And so for that reason, I'm going to go Kyle Dawkins to come out here and actually get a first round knockout."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

Lucrative James picks Kyle Daukaus to win, stating that Gerald Meerschaert is washed and Daukaus has better striking and grappling. He notes Daukaus' resurgence after a first-round KO in his return fight, and believes his takedown defense and top control will neutralize Meerschaert's submission threats. He predicts a finish or clear decision for Daukaus.

"I think Doras is going to win this one, boys."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

Daukaus is a better and younger version of Meerschaert. He can win whichever way he chooses, whether by knockout or submission. He wins inside the distance.

inside the distance
"I think Dawis can pretty much win this fight whichever way he chooses. ... I'm just going to go with the broad finishing method here and say inside the distance."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

Paul picks Daukaus, citing his size, striking, and submission defense. He notes that Meerschaert has poor durability and has been knocked out frequently. Paul believes Daukaus will win by TKO, possibly in the first round. He also mentions that Daukaus has looked good on the regional scene and is a big middleweight.

Daukaus by KO +215
"Daukaus by KO plus 215. I I just I just hit submit."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

The Guru picks Kyle Daukaus to win by TKO in round two. He notes that Gerald Meerschaert is on a three-fight losing streak and aging, while Daukaus is coming into his prime with improved striking and grappling. Daukaus' clinch work and power should be too much for Meerschaert, who may no longer have the craftiness to pull off a submission.

TKO in round 2
"I'll say TKO win in round two for Dorcas. I reckon he'll get a finish here over Mot."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

Zane picks Daukaus confidently, noting that Meerschaert has lost a step and never had much physical edge. He thinks Daukaus has surprisingly fast hands and is too willing to grapple, but that he can be fast and slick. He believes Daukaus might be starting a veteran run and that Meerschaert is past his prime.

Odds: Daukaus opened -260, currently -500. Meerschaert opened +220, currently +385.
"I got to pick that cause he's always had surprisingly fast hands."
KO R1 0:43 · UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · Aug 23, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kyle Daukaus 0 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michel Pereira 1 5 of 8 62% 7 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kyle Daukaus 0 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michel Pereira 1 5 of 8 62% 7 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kyle Daukaus 2 of 4 50% 0 of 1 2 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michel Pereira 5 of 8 62% 5 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kyle Daukaus 2 of 4 50% 0 of 1 2 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michel Pereira 5 of 8 62% 5 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 7
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Michel Pereira vs. Kyle Daukaus

Round 1
The younger Daukaus brother returns to the UFC after a mixed first run in the Octagon followed a second middleweight title win in
Cage Fury Fighting Championships
after his release. Tasked with getting Daukaus’ second stint off to a bad start will be noted Brazilian madman Pereira. The referee on duty is Marc Goddard. Daukaus is southpaw, Pereira orthodox. Daukaus stalks forward and Pereira gives ground. Pereira nails Daukaus with a huge body kick, but he wears it well.
Seconds later, Daukaus clips the onrushing “Demolidor” with a short right hook to the jaw that drops him to his butt. Pereira tries to rally, but Daukaus pounces with a couple of glancing fists, then three jackhammer elbows that spur Goddard into action for the save.
Sensational knockout and a triumphant return for “The D’Arce Knight,” and for those keeping track at home, that makes two sub-minute finishes in the first four fights at UFC Shanghai. Yes, please.

The Official Result
Kyle Daukaus def. Michel Pereira R1 0:43 via KO (Punches and Elbows)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Angelo is very confident in Michel Pereira, calling him an absolute beast with insane athleticism, real power, and solid wrestling and BJJ. He notes that Pereira is a better hammer than nail and that his recent loss was uncharacteristic, partly due to personal life issues. He dismisses Kyle Daukaus as not good at the UFC level despite regional wins, and expects Pereira to beat the brakes off him. He even says if Pereira doesn't win, cut them both.

"I think Michelle Pa comes in here, beats the absolute breaks off of Kyle Dawkins, and gets back on track."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Big Brady picks Michel Pereira to win by first-round knockout, despite Pereira's recent poor performance against Abus Magomedov. He believes the matchup is favorable for Pereira because Daukaus is hittable and fragile, and Pereira has the striking advantage. He notes that Daukaus will struggle to take Pereira down and that Pereira should finish early with a body shot or flying knee.

Pereira by first round knockout
"Give me Michelle Pereira. I'll take him to win by first round knockout. Hopefully he doesn't bet against himself again."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

The host acknowledges it's tough to trust Pereira after his last gunshy performance, but thinks he has a good opponent here to show off his power. He notes that Daukaus has crumbled under power before and expects Pereira to find a knockout.

win by KO/TKO
"I think he has a good enough partner here that he can show off his power once again. And we've seen Dawkins crumble under plenty of power before and Pereira can provide that and I think we'll see Pereira find …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Michel Pereira

The MMA Guru picks Michel Pereira to win, expecting an easy first-round finish. He believes Pereira is on another level compared to Kyle Daukaus, who is decent but lacks standout ability in any area. He notes that Pereira is much better at striking and moves well, which should carry him past Daukaus. However, he acknowledges that if the fight goes later, Daukaus could find success in the clinch.

first round finish
"This should be a pretty easy first round finish for Muel Preer. I think he's on another level to Kyle Dorcas."
LOSS vs Eryk Anders
TKO (punches) R2 2:45 · UFC on ESPN: Thompson vs. Holland · Dec 03, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Eryk Anders 1 49 of 94 52% 97 of 159 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:26
Kyle Daukaus 0 37 of 79 46% 38 of 83 0 of 8 0% 0 0 0:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Eryk Anders 1 29 of 62 46% 36 of 75 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:58
Kyle Daukaus 0 33 of 63 52% 33 of 63 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:06
2 Eryk Anders 0 20 of 32 62% 61 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:28
Kyle Daukaus 0 4 of 16 25% 5 of 20 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Eryk Anders 49 of 94 52% 27 of 70 14 of 14 8 of 10 23 of 55 6 of 8 20 of 31
Kyle Daukaus 37 of 79 46% 14 of 55 8 of 9 15 of 15 35 of 76 2 of 2 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Eryk Anders 29 of 62 46% 12 of 43 9 of 9 8 of 10 20 of 46 5 of 7 4 of 9
Kyle Daukaus 33 of 63 52% 13 of 43 8 of 8 12 of 12 31 of 61 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Eryk Anders 20 of 32 62% 15 of 27 5 of 5 0 of 0 3 of 9 1 of 1 16 of 22
Kyle Daukaus 4 of 16 25% 1 of 12 0 of 1 3 of 3 4 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Eryk Anders vs. Kyle Daukaus
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Daukaus (-215), Anders (+185)

Round 1
Middleweights open up the main card in a fight that will get one man back up to .500 inside the Octagon. Whether that is former light heavyweight Anders (14-7, 1 NC; 6-7, 1 NC UFC) or submission specialist Daukaus (11-3, 1 NC; 2-3, 1 NC UFC), that remains to be seen. They bump fists in front of referee Keith Peterson, who clocks them in right after ejecting nonsense from the Amway Center. Anders strikes first with a body kick, and Daukaus strides forward with two punches and two low kicks in response. Anders stutter-steps his way forward, and Daukaus intercepts him with a few punches and makes Anders turn around. As they trade leather, commentators Michael Bisping and Daniel Cormier talk about popular television shows. Daukaus gets off a knee to the body, and he shoots in for a double but is stuffed by the brick wall former football player. Daukaus sticks out a jab, and when he kicks the body, Anders lifts him up and throws him to the ground like a sack of potatoes. Anders lords over his grounded opponent with several slapping low kicks, and Daukaus considers a leglock before Anders hops away. Daukaus allows his opponent to adjust his shorts, and they touch ‘em up before re-engaging. Daukaus feints and gets kicked, and he wings a left hand over the top that slams into the side of Anders’ head. Anders backs his man up and punches the body, prompting Daukaus to spring into action. The Philadelphia native leaps forward, and after landing a few, Anders clips him with a right hand and sends Daukaus tumbling to the mat. Anders considers kicking the legs a few times before letting Daukaus back up, and Daukaus takes a few deep breaths when coming back to his feet. Anders is swinging heavily, and Daukaus does not shy away from these exchanges as he similarly slugs back. Daukaus scores thudding hooks on the side of Anders’ head, but Anders is tough and throws back with a ferocious uppercut that snaps the head back. Anders reddens the nose with a one-two, and he continues to push the pace as he works the body and head. The fighters rush together, and the crown of Anders’ head slams square into Daukaus’ face and drops him to his knees. Peterson sees it and immediately calls it, and he informs the outside officials that it was an accidental clash of heads. Daukaus takes the time he needs and gets right back to it, but Anders is on him and belts him with a few punches with a left hand that send Daukaus straight back to the floor. As Daukaus attempts to scramble and look for some kind of late submission, the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Anders
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Anders
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Anders

Round 2
Anders senses that Daukaus may not be fully recovered, and he immediately pushes the pace to start Round 2 with a vengeance. A few heavy strikes prompt “The D’Arce Knight” to shoot for a takedown, and he chains singles into doubles as Anders gets away with a fence grab. Anders slugs Daukaus on the side of the head, and these punches may be hurting Daukaus, as he lets go and flops to his back. Anders kicks the legs a few times, and this time, he lowers himself to the ground to drop a few hammerfists. Anders lands several standing-to-ground punches in rapid succession, and Daukaus kicks him back. Peterson lets Daukaus stand back up, and
Anders coils his fist and cracks Daukaus in the face with a brutal left hand. Daukaus awkwardly slumps to his knees and half-heartedly pursues a low single takedown, only to get shoved to his back, as Anders beats him down with right hand after merciless right hand. The hammerfists and punches continue to get through while Daukaus is shelled up, and Peterson has no choice but to call it on account of rain.
The knockout victory for Anders is his first finish in almost three and a half years, while he also snaps a two-fight skid in the process.

The Official Result
Eryk Anders def. Kyle Daukaus R2 2:45 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 27, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Eryk Anders

Angelo picks Eryk Anders as a solid underdog, expecting him to bully Kyle Daukaus with better wrestling and power. He criticizes Daukaus's chin and mediocre striking, calling him a 'jiu jitsu nerd' who can snatch submissions but lacks wrestling control. He believes Anders will avoid submissions and take Daukaus's head off with strikes.

Calls Anders one of the best underdogs on the card
"I am going to go Eric Anders though I think he's going to come in here just bully the hell out of Kyle Dawkins he's gonna Big Brother him"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Eryk Anders

Big Brady picks the underdog Anders, citing his takedown defense (75%) and power advantage on the feet. He notes Daukaus is hittable (40% striking defense) and not a great wrestler. He expects Anders to keep the fight standing and win a close decision, though he acknowledges it could go either way.

Anders wins by decision
"I actually like the dog here in Eric Anders... I will take him to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

Cody provides a detailed breakdown of Anders' career, calling him untrustworthy. He thinks Daukaus will land combinations and has a grappling advantage. He expects a boring decision win for Daukaus.

"I just feel like delkus is going to land the combinations when it is in the open field when it's up against the cage he's going to be landing those short shots"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Nov 30, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

Daniel Levi leans Daukaus to slightly out-hustle Anders, but he has concerns about Daukaus not putting a stamp on fights and Anders' physicality. He notes Anders' lack of activity and tendency to not pull the trigger. He picks Daukaus but is not confident.

"I uh I'm gonna lean with Kyle Dockers to come out here and just slightly out hustle Eric Anders"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Nov 29, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

The host leans towards Daukaus but is not confident enough to bet the minus 200 line. He thinks Daukaus may have a slight striking advantage and could win by decision, but he is concerned about Anders' strength and grappling. He prefers the over 2.5 rounds as a bet, expecting a clinch-heavy fight that goes to decision.

over 2.5 rounds -175; Daukaus by decision
"I do like Kyle docus to get his hand raise and for him to get his hand race via decision but I want none of that minus 200th line"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

Paul picks Daukaus, noting Anders' inconsistency and poor performances. He thinks Daukaus has a grappling edge and will land more strikes. He is cautious about betting but expects Daukaus to win cleanly.

"I'm just not betting Eric Anders um on the back on the back uh half of this part of his career"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

The MMA Guru picks Kyle Daukaus, believing Eryk Anders has lost his touch. He notes Anders looked bad against Jun Yong Park and Darren Stewart, while Daukaus has more potential and looked good against Jamie Pickett. He predicts Daukaus will win a decision with grappling and submission attempts.

Daukaus by decision (29-28)
"I'm gonna go with Kyle Dorcas"
LOSS vs Roman Dolidze
KO (knee and punches) R1 1:13 · UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Emmett · Jun 18, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Roman Dolidze 2 8 of 15 53% 10 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:36
Kyle Daukaus 0 4 of 9 44% 5 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Roman Dolidze 2 8 of 15 53% 10 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:36
Kyle Daukaus 0 4 of 9 44% 5 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Roman Dolidze 8 of 15 53% 8 of 14 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 4 3 of 3 5 of 8
Kyle Daukaus 4 of 9 44% 1 of 6 1 of 1 2 of 2 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Roman Dolidze 8 of 15 53% 8 of 14 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 4 3 of 3 5 of 8
Kyle Daukaus 4 of 9 44% 1 of 6 1 of 1 2 of 2 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kyle Daukaus vs. Roman Dolidze
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Daukaus (-240), Dolidze (+195)

Round 1
A 14-fight card – and admittedly a solid one for the ESPN airwaves, relative to recent offers on that flagship network – has dwindled to 13 with the co-main event scratched. We still begin the day’s festivities in the Texas capital city of Austin, with a middleweight matchup of power vs. technique starting things off. The massive Georgian Dolidze (9-1, 3-1 UFC) will battle it out against sneaky submission specialist Daukaus (11-2, 1 NC; 2-2, 1 NC UFC) in a matchup that could put one within spitting distance of the rankings, and referee Mike Beltran has the honors of the first fight of the card. There is a side glove touch to start the night, and Daukaus leads off with a slapping low kick. Dolidze walks through another as he stares down in opponent with bad intentions, and he ducks forward to throw a left hook only to bang into Daukaus’ head. There is no cut on either man, and Beltran lets him recover for a moment. When they reset, a short left hook from Dolidze shakes Daukaus up, and Daukaus falls to his back. As he recovers, Daukaus shoots in for a takedown while his legs simultaneously abandon him. Dolidze’s takedown defense holds up well as he jams Daukaus up against the wall, and Daukaus powers his way back up to his feet and may have grabbed the fence on the way.
After a clinch exchange, the Georgian lifts up a high knee that blasts into Daukaus’ chin, crashing into it with a sickening thud. Daukaus crumbles to the mat on his back, totally annihilated from the blow, and he instinctively covers his face with his arms even if he might not be with it. Dolidze seals the deal with a short barrage of punches, leading Beltran to step in and stop the fight.
That’s one heck of a way to start things off tonight.

The Official Result
Roman Dolidze def. Kyle Daukaus R1 1:13 via KO (Knee and Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Angelo picks Roman Dolidze because he is a world champion grappler, far superior to Kyle Daukaus in pure grappling. He notes Dolidze's power in his hands and believes the fight comes down to takedowns and takedown defense. He acknowledges Dolidze's cardio issues and low takedown defense (37%) but thinks Dolidze can win early rounds. He suggests a plus 3.5 round bet as a safer option.

plus 3.5 round bet (buy a round on judge's scorecard)
"i honestly i like roman here we have grappler versus grappler roman's the better pure grappler and he's got power in his hands plus 175 money line that's probably an okay bet if you agree with me but i plus …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

Big Brady picks Kyle Daukaus to win by decision. He notes Dolidze has power but lacks volume and cardio, while Daukaus has better striking volume, cardio, and fight IQ. He also highlights Dolidze's poor fight IQ, such as dropping for leg locks and giving up positions, which Daukaus can exploit as a black belt.

decision
"I think kyle dawkis has all the tools to win this fight he's younger he's bigger the cardio the volume the fight iq i think everything's checking out for kyle dawg is to go out here and get a decision …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

Cody picks Daukaus, citing his improving striking, BJJ, and takedown defense. He thinks Dolidze's striking is poor and his grappling is overrated. He expects Daukaus to win on the feet or survive on the ground and take over late.

"i got kyle dougas here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 16, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

Daniel Levi leans Kyle Daukaus, thinking his hands have improved and he can grind out a win if he avoids Dolidze's leg locks. He notes Dolidze has power and a leg lock game, but if he doesn't secure a submission, he ends up on his back. Levi sees Daukaus as slightly ahead but the -265 price demands domination, which he doesn't expect. He calls it a dog-or-pass situation, with Dolidze at +220 having value.

Daukaus -265 is too high; Dolidze +220 has value; dog or pass
"i need domination from -265 like i need guarantees of a finish i need guarantees of a 30-27 i don't have those guarantees that makes it a dog or pass situation"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Daukaus' improvements and Dolidze's lack of striking and cardio. He thinks Daukaus is the better fighter and should win.

"no no disagreements on my end"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Jun 13, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

The MMA Guru leans towards Kyle Daukaus, citing Dolidze's poor performance in his last fight where he struggled against an opponent he should have handled easily. He believes Daukaus is younger, improving, and capable in the clinch and at range. He predicts a close 29-28 decision win for Daukaus, noting that Dolidze's best wins have not been impressive.

"i am going to be leaning towards kyle dawkis here i think he's good against a cage that seems to be roman de lizzi's best part of his game"
WIN vs Jamie Pickett
Submission (D'Arce choke) R1 4:59 · UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill · Feb 19, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kyle Daukaus 0 6 of 9 66% 19 of 29 3 of 6 50% 2 0 4:12
Jamie Pickett 0 5 of 9 55% 5 of 9 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kyle Daukaus 0 6 of 9 66% 19 of 29 3 of 6 50% 2 0 4:12
Jamie Pickett 0 5 of 9 55% 5 of 9 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kyle Daukaus 6 of 9 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 3 5 of 7 1 of 2 0 of 0
Jamie Pickett 5 of 9 55% 2 of 5 3 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 5 4 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kyle Daukaus 6 of 9 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 3 5 of 7 1 of 2 0 of 0
Jamie Pickett 5 of 9 55% 2 of 5 3 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 5 4 of 4 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kyle Daukaus vs. Jamie Pickett

Round 1
Receiving an upgrade to the co-main event slot, Daukaus (10-2, 1 NC; 1-2, 1 NC UFC) and Pickett (13-6, 2-2 UFC) will handle their business at a pre-planned 195-pound catchweight due to the latter taking the fight on short notice. This fun stylistic clash will draw officiating from referee Herb Dean, and the fighters gladly touch gloves as they are happy to be fighting tonight. Pickett strikes first with few low kicks, and Daukaus replies in kind. Right after Daukaus wings a right hand, he changes levels to go after a takedown. Although Pickett stays upright on the first attempt, Daukaus sucks his legs out beneath him and drags him down. From his back, “The Nightwolf” holds on to a guillotine choke, and Daukaus wisely comes around with his own shoulder to set up a Von Preux shoulder choke. Pickett lets go of his arm grip so that he does not himself get submitted, and instead sits up and turns on his hip to try to stand back up. Daukaus keeps his man trapped beneath him, smacking him in the face with a few right hands, but Pickett explodes out of the position and powers back to his feet. Pickett tries to let his hands go when he gets upright, only to find Daukaus right on him to go hunting for a single. The Philadelphia native successfully lifts Pickett’s leg all the way up in the air before slamming him to the mat, and he is quick to secure half guard. When Pickett sits up and turns like before, Daukaus times this to try to take his back. Pickett simply stands up from this position, and he shucks Daukaus off of his back. Daukaus does not let up, remaining tied to Pickett until he lets go of his own accord. Out of nowhere, Daukaus drills Pickett with a few punches square on the chin, and when Pickett is shaken up, Daukaus leaps forward to snag another takedown.
Pickett falls to his back, and when he rolls to his side, Daukaus quickly attacks with a sneaky brabo choke from a difficult angle. In half guard, Daukaus keeps the choke snaked around Pickett’s neck and it is tight. With no way to get out, Pickett wriggles his arm free so that he can tap out on Daukaus’ side barely one second before the horn blares.
There is a bit of confusion as to the timing of the stoppage, or whether Pickett reached the end of the round, but it appears that he tapped out just before the bell. What a way to win a fight!

The Official Result
Kyle Daukaus def. Jamie Pickett R1 4:59 via Submission (Brabo Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Feb 13, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Jamie Pickett

Angelo leans toward Jamie Pickett, citing his recent performance against Joseph Holmes where he showed volume and mixed in takedowns. He notes that if Pickett fights aggressively and uses takedowns, he beats Daukaus almost every time. However, he acknowledges Pickett's gun-shy tendencies could be a problem.

"i'm gonna do a slight lean to jamie pickett because we just saw that version of him three weeks ago"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 16, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

Big Brady picks Kyle Daukaus, noting Pickett has low output and has been outgrappled by lesser fighters. He believes Daukaus has advantages on the feet and on the ground, and predicts a submission in the first or second round.

win by submission in first or second round
"give me tylenol dawkis to submit jamie pickett I'll say in that first or second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

Cody picks Kyle Daukaus, citing his well-rounded skill set and superior grappling. He notes that Daukaus has shown good moments in his UFC fights, including a strong performance against Kevin Holland that was ruled a no contest due to an accidental headbutt. Cody believes Daukaus will have faster hand speed and should be able to take the fight to the mat, where he has a sizable advantage. He also mentions that Jamie Pickett's game is not well-rounded and relies on smothering opponents against the cage.

"yeah much of the same the only thing that could maybe cause for concern is if jamie pickett just spam clinches up against the cage"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Feb 17, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

Levi leans toward Daukaus but thinks the line is too wide, suggesting it should be around -175. He acknowledges Pickett's momentum and confidence from two wins, but notes Pickett's wins were over lower-level opponents. Levi expects Daukaus to win a close decision, possibly an ugly fight, and mentions Daukaus should finish but might not.

line should be -175 to -165; Daukaus by close decision
"i slightly lean them but not by that much i think it's a dog or pass situation but i'll take darkest by a close decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 17, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

Daukaus is better everywhere: clinch, grappling, and developing striking. Pickett has physical tools but lacks output and fight IQ. Daukaus should control the fight with takedowns and either submit or decision Pickett. The sub/decision combo at -165 is a great line. A knockout is unlikely, so the method is between submission and decision.

Daukaus by sub or decision (-165), Daukaus by decision (+120)
"fanduel has done buckets by sub or decision at -165 and i think that's a hell of a line"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

Paul picks Daukaus, noting that Pickett is low-volume and doesn't use his long reach well. He thinks Daukaus's path to victory is to take the fight to the mat, where he should have a clear advantage. Paul acknowledges that Pickett could spam clinches, but overall he sees Daukaus as a rightful favorite at -250.

"i think the real path to victory here for kyle dawkis is take this fight to the mat where he should have a sizable advantage"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

The MMA Guru picks Kyle Daukaus to win by 29-28 decision in a clinch-heavy fight. He believes Daukaus has better technique on the feet and superior jiu-jitsu, and can neutralize Pickett's cage-grappling game. He notes Daukaus has a good chin and has never been finished as a pro, so Pickett's power is less of a threat. He expects a boring clinch fest with Daukaus edging out the rounds.

decision 29-28
"i'm going to go with kyle dawkis here over jamie pickett ... i think he's going to be able to sort of neutralize the cage holding game of jamie picker"
LOSS vs Kevin Holland
No Contest (accidental clash of heads) R1 3:43 · UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · Oct 02, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kevin Holland 0 3 of 7 42% 24 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:04
Kyle Daukaus 0 9 of 13 69% 19 of 25 1 of 5 20% 3 0 2:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kevin Holland 0 3 of 7 42% 24 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:04
Kyle Daukaus 0 9 of 13 69% 19 of 25 1 of 5 20% 3 0 2:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kevin Holland 3 of 7 42% 2 of 6 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0
Kyle Daukaus 9 of 13 69% 5 of 9 3 of 3 1 of 1 2 of 4 4 of 4 3 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kevin Holland 3 of 7 42% 2 of 6 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0
Kyle Daukaus 9 of 13 69% 5 of 9 3 of 3 1 of 1 2 of 4 4 of 4 3 of 5
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kyle Daukaus vs. Kevin Holland

Round 1
In the co-main event, two middleweights who have struggled as of late in Holland (21-7, 8-4 UFC) and Daukaus (10-2, 1-2 UFC) will pair off in hopes of staying afloat on the ever-growing roster. Their finish rates are 1% apart, with Holland preferring the knockout while all of Daukaus’ wins inside the distance have come by submission, most of which from a brabo choke. Can Daukaus give Holland fits on the ground, or has “Trailblazer” ironed out those deficiencies? Like referee Dan Miragliotta, we are about to find out after the two touch gloves. Holland begins with a slapping low kick, and he darts forward with a big right hand. Daukaus responds with a few right hands, and he charges in for a takedown try. Holland is ready for it, and he gets pushed to the fence and possibly kneed low. Holland keeps himself upright as he starts talking to the commentary team, and he smiles and boxes Daukaus’ ears. Holland gets dragged to a knee, but he pops back up without concern. Daukaus looks to trip him down, and “Trailblazer” keeps his balance and starts talking more trash. Holland breaks free and finds himself in submission danger when Daukaus pulls for a standing guillotine choke. Holland provides humorous commentary to commentator Daniel Cormier’s commentary, making himself laugh while punching his foe in the side. Daukaus holds on in this stalemate position as neither can advance, and Holland stomps the toes several times until Miragliotta breaks them up.
Holland gets off a one-two, and when he leans forward to strike, the two clash heads and Holland falls forward to the ground in a heap. Miragliotta calls for a replay and Daukaus hunts for a brabo choke that he turns into a guillotine. Holland gets back to his knees and stands up, but Daukaus is on his back and he snares a rear-naked choke. The choke is incredibly tight, and Holland grimaces and taps out.
There is immediate controversy as Holland was clearly compromised by the clash of heads. There is no bad blood, as they hug it out while the referees and commission officials talk over the next steps. Replay official Herb Dean informs Miragliotta that he could assign the result as a no contest depending on how he feels and reviews the sequence. A lengthy period of confusion follows, and Holland asks for them to run it back no matter the final result. Daukaus is fine with this. It appears that this fight will not be a win for Daukaus, and it is good for the fighters involved that instant replay has been implemented.

The Official Result
Kyle Daukaus vs. Kevin Holland is ruled a No Contest (Accidental Clash of Heads) R1 3:43
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

Angelo picks Kyle Daukaus, believing his grappling will be enough to take down Kevin Holland, who has shown zero takedown defense. He notes that Daukaus is a very good grappler with solid jiu-jitsu, while Holland is a sniper on his feet with good BJJ but no wrestling. Angelo thinks Daukaus will stick to a game plan, get the fight to the ground, and control from there. He likes Daukaus at plus 120 moneyline and in DraftKings at $7,700. He hates the monkey knife fight line and will not touch it.

moneyline bet at +120, considering submission or inside the distance bets
"kyle dawkis is the pick i will probably throw a money line bet on him plus 120 i like"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 30, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Big Brady picks Kevin Holland to win by knockout, seeing this as a good bounce-back spot. He notes Holland's losses came against elite wrestlers (Marvin Vettori, Derek Brunson) who are far better than Daukaus. Daukaus has poor striking defense (39%) and is very hittable, while Holland is a black belt himself and has shown good grappling against Gerald Meerschaert. Brady thinks Holland will stuff takedowns or get back up, and on the feet it's night and day. He predicts a knockout due to Daukaus's poor striking defense.

Holland by KO
"i'll take kevin hall in a win okay kevin holland to win oh man i don't know i'll say knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

Cody picks Daukaus as a dog, citing Holland's poor takedown defense and mental fragility. He notes that Holland has shown no ability to keep fights standing and gets taken down easily, even by mediocre wrestlers. Daukaus has good grappling and should be able to take Holland down and control him on the ground. He also mentions that Holland's long frame makes it hard for him to scramble back to his feet.

"this is a dogger pass i know i consider the the main event to be a potential dog or pass but i'm taking challenge with santos this is a doctor pass and if you're going to give me a plus …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Kevin Holland

Daniel Levi picks Kevin Holland, believing he is in a different class than Kyle Daukaus. He acknowledges Holland's wrestling issues exposed by top-five opponents but thinks Daukaus is not at that level to exploit them. Levi notes Daukaus is tough and durable but expects Holland's dynamic striking and reach to be too much. He suggests the line is a discount due to Holland's recent losses and that he would be a bigger favorite otherwise.

"i kind of view kevin holland currently in a different class in a different league than kyle dawkins"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert picked Oct 1, 2021 (1 day before fight)

I'm staying away from this fight. Holland has huge grappling holes, but Daukaus isn't a great wrestler either. I think the over 2.5 rounds is interesting because both guys are durable and it might be a low-output fight. I don't have a strong pick either way.

Over 2.5 rounds -155
"This is a stay away fight all in all"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

Paul leans towards Holland but dislikes the -160 price. He acknowledges Holland's advantages on the feet but is concerned about his takedown defense and mental lapses. He notes that Daukaus is not a world-class wrestler but should be able to get the fight to the ground. He ultimately does not make a firm pick but seems to favor the dog.

"i'm leaning towards kevin holland here i just don't really like the the -160 price tag attached to it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

The MMA Guru picks Kevin Holland, citing his reach advantage and Daukaus' poor stand-up. He notes Daukaus was dominated by Phil Hawes and struggled to take him down. Holland has been training wrestling and should stuff takedowns. He predicts Holland will get a second-round KO.

Holland by KO in round 2
"i'm going to be going with kevin holland here i trust him to get this one done"
LOSS vs Phil Hawes
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–26, 29–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Rodriguez vs. Waterson · May 08, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Phil Hawes 0 66 of 101 65% 157 of 210 2 of 4 50% 1 0 5:34
Kyle Daukaus 0 28 of 82 34% 52 of 113 0 of 7 0% 0 1 4:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Phil Hawes 0 16 of 22 72% 32 of 39 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:33
Kyle Daukaus 0 5 of 21 23% 18 of 37 0 of 2 0% 0 1 2:56
2 Phil Hawes 0 29 of 45 64% 48 of 65 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:35
Kyle Daukaus 0 22 of 51 43% 30 of 60 0 of 5 0% 0 0 1:17
3 Phil Hawes 0 21 of 34 61% 77 of 106 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:26
Kyle Daukaus 0 1 of 10 10% 4 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Phil Hawes 66 of 101 65% 42 of 75 23 of 25 1 of 1 33 of 57 18 of 19 15 of 25
Kyle Daukaus 28 of 82 34% 20 of 68 6 of 11 2 of 3 26 of 78 2 of 3 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Phil Hawes 16 of 22 72% 10 of 15 5 of 6 1 of 1 6 of 11 10 of 11 0 of 0
Kyle Daukaus 5 of 21 23% 2 of 15 2 of 5 1 of 1 4 of 18 1 of 2 0 of 1
2 Phil Hawes 29 of 45 64% 15 of 30 14 of 15 0 of 0 21 of 37 8 of 8 0 of 0
Kyle Daukaus 22 of 51 43% 17 of 44 4 of 5 1 of 2 21 of 50 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Phil Hawes 21 of 34 61% 17 of 30 4 of 4 0 of 0 6 of 9 0 of 0 15 of 25
Kyle Daukaus 1 of 10 10% 1 of 9 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Phil Hawes vs. Kyle Daukaus

Round 1
The new main card opener sees a middleweight clash between representatives of rival states New Jersey and Pennsylvania, as Hawes (10-2, 2-0 UFC) will ply his knockout-friendly trade against submission specialist Daukaus (10-1, 1-1 UFC). The third man in the cage for a fight that may not last long is referee Mark Smith, and there is no serious glove touch before the two get down to business. The blonde-haired Hawes comes out aggressively, throwing bombs and backing Daukaus up immediately. Hawes has a kick clip the cup, and there is a pause for just a second or two. Daukaus adjusts himself and throws back with heavy leather, and Hawes is either hurt or off-balance, as he slips back. Hawes interrupts an advancing Daukaus with a front kick, and he goes back to stalking the Philadelphia native down and throwing big strikes. Out of nowhere, Hawes ducks down, scoops Daukaus up and slams him down. Daukaus defends off his back with a guillotine choke, but he is immediately in danger for the Von Preux choke. Hawes recognizes this and presses his shoulder down, but he cannot finish it. Instead, Daukaus uses pure power to roll Hawes over and put him on his back. “Megatron” slides right into danger with a choke attempt from Daukaus, but he scrambles and gets out of harm’s way. When he gets to his knees, Daukaus takes his back. Hawes defends the hooks, powers back to his feet, and is quick to fight off a single leg takedown attempt from Daukaus. When he does not land it, Daukaus drops to his knees for a double, and that too comes up short. Hawes, while keeping himself upright, is landing short strikes to the body and head to make Daukaus think twice about his position. Hawes lifts Daukaus up with a knee to the chest, but he cannot get the Pennsylvanian off of him. Daukaus embraces the grind, pressing Hawes into the wire and putting his full body weight on his man. Both men try to get off elbows, but neither are successful. Daukaus sells out for a double, and Hawes sprawls against the cage and keeps his balance to fight off this attempt. Hawes introduces his knee to Daukaus’ torso, and the two separate with seconds to spare. Neither throw anything of note until the bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Daukaus
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Daukaus
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Daukaus

Round 2
The middleweights rush out of their corners to meet in the middle, but it does not take long for Hawes to push the pace and start backing Daukaus up against the fence. Daukaus tries to spring forward with a kick to the body, and Hawes interrupts him and lands a few punches. Daukaus swings a spinning strike, and Hawes does not completely avoid it. “Megatron” is suddenly rocked, and Daukaus lays into him with a salvo of punches to try to finish the job. Hawes gains the wherewithal to embrace the grappling, and even though he cannot get the takedown, he gains valuable time clearing his head. The two clinch briefly, and push off, where both men trade heavy shots. Daukaus gets the better of an exchange, and Hawes bends over and slams his right hand into the torso. A cracking right hand puts Daukaus on roller skates for a moment, and the Philadelphia native crashes in to clinch and try to take the fight down. Daukaus looks to trip his man down, attack singles or otherwise plant Hawes on his back, but the Sanford MMA fighter stands tall and looks frustrated. Hawes frames off to nail Daukaus with a stern elbow, and this forces Daukaus to backpedal quickly. Hawes parries a strike to fire back at Daukaus, and he mixes things up with body strikes and head shots. “Megatron” notices his body work is starting to make a difference, and he lifts up a knee to the body. The knee does not rise high enough, and it clunks straight into Daukaus’ cup. Thirty seconds are all Daukaus needs to catch his breath, and Hawes picks up where he left off with body shots. As he targets the body and again with impunity, Daukaus shoots in low for a takedown to stop this. Hawes stuffs it and pushes Daukaus back, where he drills Daukaus with a right hand and a front kick that nails Daukaus in the head when Daukaus bends over. Hawes hunts Daukaus down with strikes until the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hawes
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Hawes
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hawes

Round 3
Smith calls in the doctor between rounds to check a cut around Daukaus’ eye, but there is no concern and the fight clocks in normally. Hawes loads up on several big shots to begin the round, alternating between the head and body with punches and kicks. Hawes works the body, catches a body kick, and puts Daukaus on his back. Daukaus throws up his legs quickly to defend with a triangle choke off his back, but “Megatron” laughs it off, breaks the position and postures up in Daukaus’ guard. There may have been an eye poke for Hawes, but he is warned in passing as Daukaus complains. Daukaus opens and closes his guard to try to find a better way out, all while Hawes pounds on him with short strikes. Individually, they may not be especially damaging, but they are adding up quickly as time ticks off the clock. Daukaus punches the back of the head a few times in passing, and he grimaces when his own blood trickles into his eye. Hawes steps into half guard, where he begins to unleash a series of punches to try to pound Daukaus out. Daukaus twists and nearly climbs to his feet, but Hawes pushes him back over and continues to work him over with left hands. Smith asks for Daukaus to keep moving and defend himself, and Hawes uses this as an opportunity to start slamming down elbows. Hawes continues to batter Daukaus with punches and elbows, and once more, Hawes appears to scrape the eye with his fingers. Daukaus appears miserable as blood is in his eyes, Hawes relentlessly punches him, and he cannot do anything but get Hawes back to his full guard. The 10-second clapper leads Daukaus to close his guard to lock Hawes down, where he survives and does not take much more punishment until the fight is over.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Hawes (29-27 Hawes)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Hawes (29-27 Hawes)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Hawes (29-27 Hawes)

The Official Result
Phil Hawes def. Kyle Daukaus via Unanimous Decision (30-26, 30-26, 29-27)
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 6, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Big Brady picks Hawes but is not confident, noting Hawes is typically first-round-or-bust. He thinks Hawes needs to land an early knockout, otherwise Daukaus will take over. Brady likes the prop 'fight doesn't go to decision' and suggests live betting Daukaus if Hawes doesn't finish in the first round. He mentions Hawes's last fight went to decision but that was an anomaly. He picks Hawes by first-round knockout.

Fight doesn't go to decision; live bet Daukaus if Hawes doesn't finish first round
"I'm going to take cause to get that first round knockout might be a live betting situation but the prop i really do like is that fight doesn't go to decision."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 6, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Daniel Levi picks Phil Hawes, arguing that Hawes is underappreciated and has been rushed against tough competition. He notes Hawes' D1 wrestling, freak athleticism, and one-punch knockout power. He believes Hawes learned from his past mistakes and will win a decision, as he did against Imavov. He views Daukaus as an average athlete and black belt, and thinks Hawes can lean on him and get takedowns.

"i think phil has is so underappreciated to a point where like when this guy was three and noah as a pro they put him in there with andrew sanchez like what"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 7, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

The host favors Kyle Daukaus, believing his jiu-jitsu and cardio will be the difference. He expects Daukaus to survive Hawes' early power and then submit him later. He likes the under 2.5 rounds and Daukaus by submission prop.

under 2.5 -150, Daukaus by sub +250
"i really like dalkist in the spot kind of surprised at the land movement as in terms of making it closer of a pickum fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 3, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

The MMA Guru picks Kyle Daukaus over Phil Hawes, noting that Daukaus is the slight favorite. He believes Daukaus's smothering clinch game and technical stand-up will overwhelm Hawes, who showed a hole in his last fight against the cage. He predicts a 29-28 unanimous decision, with Daukaus winning the second and third rounds.

unanimous decision, 29-28
"i'm gonna be going with kyle alkaus here ... i just think it's a bad matchup"
Expert Picks (4)
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 6, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Big Brady picks Hawes but is not confident, noting Hawes is typically first-round-or-bust. He thinks Hawes needs to land an early knockout, otherwise Daukaus will take over. Brady likes the prop 'fight doesn't go to decision' and suggests live betting Daukaus if Hawes doesn't finish in the first round. He mentions Hawes's last fight went to decision but that was an anomaly. He picks Hawes by first-round knockout.

Fight doesn't go to decision; live bet Daukaus if Hawes doesn't finish first round
"I'm going to take cause to get that first round knockout might be a live betting situation but the prop i really do like is that fight doesn't go to decision."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 6, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Daniel Levi picks Phil Hawes, arguing that Hawes is underappreciated and has been rushed against tough competition. He notes Hawes' D1 wrestling, freak athleticism, and one-punch knockout power. He believes Hawes learned from his past mistakes and will win a decision, as he did against Imavov. He views Daukaus as an average athlete and black belt, and thinks Hawes can lean on him and get takedowns.

"i think phil has is so underappreciated to a point where like when this guy was three and noah as a pro they put him in there with andrew sanchez like what"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 7, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

The host favors Kyle Daukaus, believing his jiu-jitsu and cardio will be the difference. He expects Daukaus to survive Hawes' early power and then submit him later. He likes the under 2.5 rounds and Daukaus by submission prop.

under 2.5 -150, Daukaus by sub +250
"i really like dalkist in the spot kind of surprised at the land movement as in terms of making it closer of a pickum fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 3, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

The MMA Guru picks Kyle Daukaus over Phil Hawes, noting that Daukaus is the slight favorite. He believes Daukaus's smothering clinch game and technical stand-up will overwhelm Hawes, who showed a hole in his last fight against the cage. He predicts a 29-28 unanimous decision, with Daukaus winning the second and third rounds.

unanimous decision, 29-28
"i'm gonna be going with kyle alkaus here ... i just think it's a bad matchup"