Carlston Harris

AJ is confident Matthews will dominate, calling Harris washed and noting his poor recent performances. He highlights Matthews' fast hands and good combos, while Harris is slow and sloppy. AJ predicts a knockout, possibly in the first or second round, and thinks Matthews will show out. He also notes the travel advantage for Matthews (Australia) vs Harris (Brazil).

AJ calls Matthews an 'absolute lock,' believing Harris is washed and old. He notes Matthews is in his prime with clean kickboxing and strong wrestling, while Harris has looked slow and sloppy recently. AJ predicts a finish, possibly by KO or submission, given Harris's decline and short notice.

AJ picks Jake Matthews confidently, calling Carlston Harris washed and past his prime at 38. He notes Harris's slow, herky-jerky striking and recent losses, while Matthews is a fluid kickboxer with high-level grappling. AJ predicts a Matthews finish, possibly by knockout or submission, given Matthews's recent form and Harris's vulnerabilities.

Angelo picks Jake Matthews because he is the better overall fighter, younger, and has more energy. He notes that Matthews is the better wrestler and striker, and that Carlston Harris is past his prime. He is confident and expects bets on Matthews.

Angelo is very confident that Jake Matthews will win, citing his power, experience, and the fact that Carlston Harris is coming off a brutal knockout loss. He believes Matthews is the better overall fighter and expects the line to move heavily in Matthews' favor. He advises betting on Matthews now before the odds shorten.

Angelo picks Jake Matthews to win and finish, noting that Harris is past his prime, less durable, and stepping up on short notice. He believes Matthews is well-rounded and should find a finish.

Big Brady picks Jake Matthews but is hesitant, calling him the biggest ball dropper and inconsistent. He notes Harris is a front choke merchant and Matthews was just front choked by Neil Magny. He believes Matthews should win but warns he might find a way to lose. He predicts a decision win, saying Matthews should finish but probably won't.

Cody picks Harris as a live underdog, citing Matthews' history of getting submitted in the third round when tired. He notes Harris' submission skills (anaconda choke) and that Matthews has been submitted four times in the UFC. Cody believes Harris can catch Matthews late if he survives the early rounds. He also mentions that Matthews' wins are over low-level competition.

Levi picks Matthews but with low confidence, noting his history of choking in big spots. He acknowledges Harris's front choke threat and Matthews's recent submission loss. However, he believes Harris's bad chin and age give Matthews a good chance to knock him out.

Jacob picks Jake Matthews but is hesitant because he feels this fight could be a trap. He notes that Carlston Harris is unorthodox and has power, and Matthews has been submitted before. He warns that Matthews might not use his wrestling and could get caught.

Lucrative James picks Jake Matthews, citing his youth (31 vs 38), better boxing, head movement, and overall skill set compared to Carlston Harris. He notes Matthews' unfortunate last loss due to a referee error but believes he is the better fighter everywhere. He highlights Harris's poor durability, cardio, and recent knockout losses, and expects Matthews to land clean shots and get a knockout. He also mentions Matthews' improved chin and comfort in the UFC.

The host picks Jake Matthews over short-notice replacement Carlston Harris, noting Matthews' sharper striking and Harris' over-aggressiveness. He expects Matthews to counter with big shots and eventually find a knockout.

The host picks Matthews to win inside the distance, believing his well-rounded game and experience will overcome Harris's reckless striking. He notes Harris is old, hasn't fought in over a year, and is on a two-fight losing streak by knockout. He expects Matthews to counter and outgrapple Harris, leading to a knockout.

Paul also leans Harris, noting that Matthews is overpriced at -350 and has a history of late-round submissions. He mentions Harris' striking is decent and he has a knack for submissions. Paul is not confident enough to bet pre-flop but sees live betting value. He also notes that Matthews' wins are against low-level opponents.

The Guru picks Jake Matthews over Carlston Harris, citing Matthews' youth, athleticism, and technical striking. He believes Matthews' footwork and accuracy will pick apart Harris, who is hittable and fading. He notes Harris' back-to-back KO losses and Matthews' bounce-back potential.

Angelo picks Santiago Ponzinibbio, citing his speed, cleaner striking, and better cardio. He notes that Carlston Harris has more power and aggressive grappling, but believes Ponzinibbio's volume and pressure will win. He expresses concern about Ponzinibbio's commentating job potentially distracting him, but still picks him. He mentions Ponzinibbio was an underdog but may flip to favorite.

Big Brady likes Harris's grappling advantage, noting his elite submission game and front chokes. He thinks Ponzinibbio's chin is declining, having been knocked out by the Leech and Kevin Holland. He believes Harris has more ways to win, either by submission or a club-and-sub. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds prop, as both guys have poor durability and can finish each other.

Cody picks Ponzinibbio despite his recent 2-5 record, arguing that Harris is also flawed with poor takedown accuracy and stiff striking. He believes Ponzinibbio's veteran savvy, range, and power will allow him to land first. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds, expecting a knockout.

Connor picks Ponzinibbio because Harris is fundamentally bad at MMA, relying on wild aggression and grappling without structure. Ponzinibbio is a good defensive wrestler and strong in the clinch, and his straight punches and footwork make him difficult to clinch against. While Ponzinibbio is older and slower, he still has a process and toughness, and his losses have come against sharp strikers, not wild punchers like Harris. Connor notes that if Ponzinibbio loses, it would be his worst loss since 2011.

Daniel notes both fighters are washed up and chinny, but historically Ponzinibbio was one fight away from a title shot and has better credentials. He thinks Ponzinibbio's experience and jab/straight right will be enough, though he's not confident. He mentions Harris has dangerous front chokes but Ponzinibbio rarely shoots. He picks Ponzinibbio to win and retire.

Lucrative James gives a lean toward Santiago Ponzinibbio, but admits he hasn't done extensive research. He believes Ponzinibbio is the better striker and can defend takedowns, while Harris's best chance is an early knockout. He predicts a decision win for Ponzinibbio in a lackluster fight. He cautions that this is an early read and he may not bet it.

Ponzinibbio's technical striking should allow him to pick apart Harris and eventually find a knockout, but he must be wary of Harris's big power and reckless swinging. As long as Ponzinibbio's speed hasn't diminished, he should find openings to put Harris away.

Paul leans toward Harris as a slight plus-money underdog, citing Ponzinibbio's age and damage absorbed. He notes Harris's crafty submission game and power, but admits both are flawed. He prefers the under 2.5 rounds as a bet rather than the moneyline.

The Guru picks Ponzinibbio despite questioning why this is a co-main event. He notes Ponzinibbio's split decision loss to Muslim Salikhov and leg kicks against Holland, and his win over Alex Morono. He contrasts Harris's inactivity, age (37), and KO loss to Chaos Williams. He acknowledges Ponzinibbio's recent chinny reputation but thinks he's good enough to beat Harris.

Angelo picks Khaos Williams due to his power, durability, and takedown defense, but he is not fully confident because Williams looked flat in his last fight with no head movement. Carlston Harris is well-rounded with slick grappling and power. Angelo trusts Williams' takedown defense over Harris's 29% takedown accuracy, but hopes Williams shows improvement.

Cody believes Williams has evolved from a pure power puncher to a more well-rounded fighter who uses inside kicks to set up his right hand. He notes Williams has 80% takedown defense and hasn't been taken down since Michel Pereira. Cody argues Harris's striking is limited and his cardio is suspect; if Harris doesn't get a quick submission, Williams will outwork him on the feet. He also highlights Williams's training camp at Michigan with top welterweights.

Williams has improved his takedown defense and gas tank, and is a crisper striker. Harris relies on clinching and BJJ but will struggle to get the fight to the ground against Williams' physicality. Expects Williams to land the more effective damage and win a decision.

Paul leans on Harris's grappling advantage, noting that if Harris can get the fight to the mat, he should have a significant edge. He questions whether Khaos Williams has been tested against someone with Harris's jiu-jitsu pedigree. Paul expects a striker vs. grappler dynamic and favors the grappler.

Angelo picks Jeremiah Wells but is hesitant, noting the fight is very close. He gives Wells a slight edge in wrestling and notes his toughness after being dropped twice in his last fight. He acknowledges Carlston Harris has a better chin and is dangerous on the ground. Angelo does not place a bet because Harris is dangerous, but thinks Wells will get it done.

Big Brady thinks this is a very close fight and expects a first-round knockout. He notes both fighters have power and are hittable. He picks Harris slightly because he thinks Harris can land a big shot and Wells won't be able to grapple his way out like he did against Semelsberger. He predicts Harris by first-round KO.

Cody is confident in Harris as an underdog, citing his unorthodox striking, reach (77 inches), power, and BJJ black belt. He notes Wells' struggles against grapplers and his tendency to get rocked. He believes Harris can chop Wells up on the feet and has a good chance of finishing inside the distance.

Daniel Levi leans toward Carlston Harris, citing his length, jab, and volume striking. He worries about Wells' wrestling success but thinks Harris can defend takedowns and pick him apart at range. Levi notes both fighters have questionable chins, but believes Harris' activity and process give him an edge. He sees this as a dog-or-pass situation and prefers Harris at plus money.

James disagrees with the line moving toward Harris. He acknowledges Harris's front choke series is dangerous, especially if Wells shoots. However, he thinks Wells has insane punching power and good takedown top upside. He believes Wells is the deserved favorite but says it's not a hill he wants to die on.

Both fighters are reckless strikers looking for knockouts, but Wells is shorter and stockier while Harris is long and lanky. Wells has a slight edge in Jiu-Jitsu, but Harris has a better gas tank. I think Wells gets an early knockout under 2.5 rounds, likely in the first, but I don't have any real interest in betting this matchup.

Paul agrees with Harris, noting that the market has moved and Harris is now the rightful favorite. He cites Wells' poor performance against Samuelsberger and his vulnerability early. He plans to take a small bet on Harris and considers a live bet after the first round.

Angelo picks Abubakar Nurmagomedov (Jared Gooden) as the aggressive wrestler who will lay on top of the older, slower Carlston Harris. He expects a boring but effective performance, with Nurmagomedov controlling the fight with takedowns and top pressure. He is surprised Nurmagomedov is the underdog and considers a moneyline bet at plus money.

Big Brady picks Ricardo Ramos (note: transcript says Ramos vs Lingo, but fight_id 1327 is Harris vs Gooden; however the transcript discusses Ramos vs Lingo, which is not on the card. This appears to be a mismatch. Based on the transcript, the fight discussed is Ramos vs Lingo, but that fight is not in the fight list. I will skip this as it doesn't match any fight_id. Actually, the transcript mentions 'Ricardo Ramos going against Austin lingo' but that fight is not in the provided card. So I will not include it.)

Connor picks Harris confidently, noting that Gooden is a stiff, upright striker who gets hurt early in fights and has poor head movement. Harris is a powerful, dynamic wrestler-striker who will pressure Gooden and take him down. He expects Harris to overwhelm Gooden with pace and power, likely leading to a finish.

I think Gooden's discipline and jab from distance, combined with timely takedowns, will allow him to grind out a decision. Harris is dangerous early with submissions and power, but if Gooden can survive the initial onslaught and avoid the front choke, he should take over. Gooden's performance against Harris showed he can implement a smart game plan. I expect a decision win for Gooden.

The MMA Guru picks Carlston Harris, citing his finishing ability as a key advantage. He notes that Harris has a massive finishing edge over Abubakar Nurmagomedov, who tends to win by decision. Harris has shown KO and submission finishes, while Nurmagomedov lacks finishing ability and has been submitted before. The Guru trusts Harris to get the job done, likely by finish.

Angelo picks Shavkat Rakhmonov but warns the odds are too wide. He notes Rakhmonov is a special prospect with finishes everywhere, but Harris is a gamer with solid grappling and opportunistic submissions. Angelo gives the edge to Rakhmonov for his power and wrestling, but expects a tough fight. He suggests buying a round on the judges' scorecards.

Cody is torn but leans Rakhmonov. He loves Rakhmonov's skills and thinks he is a future star. He notes that Harris is a savvy veteran with good grappling and power, and that Rakhmonov had some clinch struggles against Cowboy Oliveira. However, he thinks Rakhmonov's overall game is superior and that he will get the job done.

Daniel Levi picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, praising his well-rounded game, durability, and finishing ability. He notes Rakhmonov has beaten solid competition and has a 77-inch reach. Levi believes Carlston Harris may gas in later rounds due to his bouncing movement, while Rakhmonov's cardio and pressure will take over. He respects Harris's awkward power and experience but sees Rakhmonov as a buzzsaw who will outwork him down the stretch.

Lock of the Night favors Rakhmonov, citing his cleaner striking and better gas tank. He notes that Rakhmonov gives up double underhooks easily, which is Harris's strength, but believes Rakhmonov's jiu-jitsu and cardio will allow him to take over later. He expects Rakhmonov to clip Harris and finish via ground and pound or submission. He likes the over 1.5 rounds and Rakhmonov inside the distance.

Paul is high on Rakhmonov, calling him a future title challenger. He notes Rakhmonov's smooth striking, good wrestling, and physical strength. He acknowledges that Harris is a live underdog with good grappling and power, but he thinks Rakhmonov's skills are special. He is backing Rakhmonov but admits he has been burned by having too much faith in prospects.

Angelo picks Carlston Harris despite Impa's superior striking because Harris is relentless with takedowns. He notes that Impa has good takedown defense but lacks knockout power to keep Harris off him. He worries that Impa's hesitation and Harris's non-stop wrestling will lead to Harris grinding out a win. He briefly considers switching to Impa but sticks with Harris.

Big Brady picks underdog Carlston Harris, impressed by his relentless wrestling and cardio. He notes Harris attempted over 20 takedowns in a 25-minute fight and has a good fight IQ. He believes Harris will pressure Kasanganay for 15 minutes, and predicts a submission win as Kasanganay is green on the mat. He is surprised Harris is the underdog.

Cody leans toward Harris as a slight underdog, citing his experience, submission game, and clear identity as a grappler. He notes that Kasanganay is still figuring out his game after being knocked out by Buckley. Cody believes Harris' pressure and grappling will be key.

Daniel Levi leans with Impa Kasanganay over Carlston Harris. He has scouted Impa for a long time, saw him fight in Atlanta, and praises his mental fortitude and physicality. He notes Harris has a nasty d'arce/anaconda choke but thinks Impa's mindset and athleticism give him the edge in a close fight. He calls it a coin flip but edges Impa.

Preet picks Impa Kasanganay because he believes Impa is the more technically sound striker with better range understanding and serviceable grappling to avoid trouble. He notes that Harris has power and a good top game but questions his takedown entries and thinks Impa's defensive grappling is improving. He expects Impa to win by decision and likes the decision prop at +175.

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Harris' experience and that Kasanganay turned into a grappler in his last fight. He thinks Harris' submission threat is real and that the plus money is attractive.

Big Brady likes Harris's wrestling and top control, believing he will take Aguilera down and grind out a decision. He notes Aguilera is dangerous on the feet early but has a suspect chin and has been dropped multiple times. Brady expects Harris to survive the first round and then take over with his grappling, winning a clear decision. He mentions Harris's gas tank is on point and his striking is not bad, but there are question marks due to lack of recent tape.

Daniel Levi picks Carlston Harris, citing his wrestling-heavy game plan and ability to implement his style. He notes Harris' wins over good regional competition and expects him to take Aguilera down and control the fight. He acknowledges Aguilera's power but thinks Harris' wrestling will be too much. He predicts a decision win for Harris.

The host believes Carlston Harris is the real deal, with good striking defense, cardio, and the ability to get the fight to the ground. He expects Harris to grind out a win, possibly by decision, but also likes the over 1.5 rounds and Harris by decision prop. He is slightly cautious due to being burned by Anthony Ivy's debut but overall confident in Harris.