Rafael Estevam

"Macapa"
3-1
Record
Age / DOB 29
(Aug 10, 1996)
Height 5' 8"
Weight 125 lbs.
Reach 69.0"
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages
2.4 Sig. Strikes / Min
39.0% Sig. Strike Acc.
3.9 Absorbed / Min
45.0% Strike Defense
4.91 TD Avg / 15 min
33.0% TD Accuracy
66.0% TD Defense
0.2 Sub. / Fight
Win Methods (3)
KO/TKO 0
Submission 0
Decision 3
Loss Methods (1)
KO/TKO 1
Submission 0
Decision 0

Fight History

Result / Opponent
Event & Date
Method/Round
Links
Comments
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ethyn Ewing 1 114 of 197 57% 116 of 200 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Rafael Estevam 0 44 of 185 23% 45 of 186 0 of 8 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ethyn Ewing 0 20 of 47 42% 21 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Rafael Estevam 0 17 of 63 26% 17 of 63 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Ethyn Ewing 0 67 of 109 61% 68 of 110 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Rafael Estevam 0 14 of 79 17% 15 of 80 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Ethyn Ewing 1 27 of 41 65% 27 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Rafael Estevam 0 13 of 43 30% 13 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ethyn Ewing 114 of 197 57% 88 of 168 20 of 21 6 of 8 107 of 187 5 of 8 2 of 2
Rafael Estevam 44 of 185 23% 35 of 165 3 of 5 6 of 15 44 of 184 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ethyn Ewing 20 of 47 42% 16 of 42 1 of 1 3 of 4 17 of 42 2 of 4 1 of 1
Rafael Estevam 17 of 63 26% 13 of 54 1 of 2 3 of 7 17 of 63 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Ethyn Ewing 67 of 109 61% 49 of 89 16 of 17 2 of 3 64 of 105 3 of 4 0 of 0
Rafael Estevam 14 of 79 17% 13 of 74 1 of 2 0 of 3 14 of 78 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Ethyn Ewing 27 of 41 65% 23 of 37 3 of 3 1 of 1 26 of 40 0 of 0 1 of 1
Rafael Estevam 13 of 43 30% 9 of 37 1 of 1 3 of 5 13 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Ethyn Ewing vs. Rafael Estevam (136.5: Missed Weight)
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ewing (-160); Estevam (+135)

Round 1
Even though the fight happened in November 2025, Ewing (9-2, 1-0 UFC) still has some hype about him for shutting down then-unbeaten Malcolm Wellmaker in a surprise thriller. “The Professor Finesser” stares down another undefeated opponent, this time former flyweight Estevam (14-0, 3-0 UFC). The Brazilian could not be bothered to make weight at this new, higher category, suffering a 20% fine as a not-so-bantamweight. Guarding over the catchweight contest will be referee Chris Tognoni. The fighters elect not to bump fists.
The two are cautious to engage, with only one strike in the first 20 seconds landing—a low kick from the Brazilian. Ewing paws out his jab and is kicked again in the front leg. Estevam kicks from his read leg, and he allows Ewing to swing so he can dodge and counter with a left hand. Estevam keeps working on the front leg, and Ewing kicks him back far heavier. Ewing doubles up on his jab out of range, hopping back from a low kick but not away from a left hook. Estevam spins with a back fist and nearly topples over, and he gathers himself and braces for impact from the American. When Ewing engages, Estevam shoots in for a single. Ewing sprawls, and Estevam redoubles his effort but is unable to secure the takedown. Estevam lets it go and parries a jab, and a shovel uppercut and low kick get through. Estevam ducks and dips to offer out an uppercut, narrowly missing the target. Estevam tries this combination again, and he gets closer but still only manages to strike with an overhand right.
Ewing deftly shuts down the takedown shot that comes, and he takes two punches off the guard and a third on the chin. Estevam leaps out for a flying knee, and Ewing intercepts him on the way up with a knee that bangs into the cup. Estevam lands and protests, and Tognoni calls time. Estevam takes 40 seconds to get his bearings, and he reintroduces himself with a calf kick and a sharp jab. Ewing slides out of the way and pulls back before throwing his punches, with Estevam beating him to the punch with everything but a hard right hand. Estevam staggers back, possibly stunned or at least off-balance, and he shoots in for a takedown and gets sprawled like a pancake. Ewing gets right in his face and lets his head movement keep him safe, busting Estevam in the chops with a few punches. Ewing fearlessly walks his opponent down, staying just out of range from the worst flying at his head. Ewing laughs off a takedown and knocks Estevam to his seat with a flurry of fists, and time expires to save Estevam. Happy as a clam, Ewing shimmies after the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ewing
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ewing
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ewing

Round 2
Estevam starts out aggressively, throwing punches and low kicks before shooting for a takedown. Ewing stands him up and knees him flush in the face. Estevam shakes it off and surges forward, unable to pin Ewing down but throwing nonetheless. Ewing dances back from big swings and throws back with accurate blows, bloodying up the Brazilian’s nose and forcing him to shoot awkwardly. Estevam hurls a big punch, and Ewing slips it and jams him in the ribs with a left. Estevam has his back to the wall and takes a clean right hand that shakes him up, and two more big hooks from Ewing pound off his melon. Estevam is throwing back with a vengeance, but Ewing cannot miss. Estevam tries to catch Ewing coming in with an elbow, and Ewing gives him a taste of his own medicine and proceeds to knee him as well. Estevam comes into clinch in hopes of setting up some grappling, and Ewing tosses him aside and boxes him up with a number of jabs. Ewing slips with a crisp uppercut, and Estevam turns away, not a fan of that blow. He goes to the lead leg with kicks, and he is in his flow state at this point.
Estevam peppers Ewing’s guard with punches and takes a hard one on the chin that makes him step back, with the American staying out of the way when Estevam leaps towards him. Ewing’s combinations are quick and pinpoint accurate, as he loops his right hand over the arm of his foe to bang it into Estevam’s temple time and again. Estevam is tough but is taking serious damage, the power on the side of Ewing. Ewing rocks the Brazilian with a bomb of a right hand, and Estevam desperately shoots for a takedown only to get completely shut down. Ewing stalks Estevam down, stumbles him and raises his arms defiantly. Estevam gathers himself and slugs his way forward, but this only opens him up to Ewing’s fluid combos and surprising power. Estevam’s takedown shot is met with a submission trap, and he stands up to take four punches right in the face. Estevam is hanging in there as Ewing rolls downhill on him, with the American swaying and dodging practically everything while putting a beating on the undefeated athlete. The round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ewing
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ewing
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ewing

Round 3
The two meet in the pocket in the center of the cage and proceed to trade hands. Ewing dances on the outer edge of Estevam’s strikes, slipping them and countering while the crowd chants for either “Ethyn” or “Defense.” Ewing walks through anything hurled at him, including a kick to his groin, so that he can further pressure the unbeaten fighter. Ewing checks a kick and goes upstairs with a right hand, and he stumbles his man with a clubbing right hook. Estevam gathers his thoughts, albeit fleeting at this point, and backs himself to the fence in hopes of countering off of it.
Ewing does not let him do it, instead boxing Estevam up with a magnificent combination of punches. In his element, Ewing concludes his combo with a devastating left to the liver, and Estevam folds like a flan in a cupboard, falling to his back totally defeated. As Tognoni sprints in to stop the fight, Ewing rains down a single standing-to-ground crushing-yet-unnecessary hammerfist
, and that’s all the work he needs to put in tonight. That marks two undefeated opponents, two victories for the rising star Ewing, who appears to be one to watch going forward in the talent-stacked bantamweight division.

The Official Result
Ethyn Ewing def. Rafael Estevam R3 1:44 via KO (Punch to the Body)
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 29, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Rafael Estevam

Angelo picks Rafael Estevam, citing recency bias in the line. He notes Estevam is a high-pressure grappler with relentless takedowns, while Ethyn Ewing's takedown defense is unproven. He believes Estevam will overwhelm Ewing with wrestling and control. Angelo mentions he bet on Estevam and would be shocked if he doesn't flip to favorite.

Angelo says 'I bet on Estam here.'
"Estav is the pick. I bet on Estam here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Mar 30, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Rafael Estevam

Big Brady picks Rafael Estevam as an underdog. He notes Estevam is a dominant grappler who takes opponents down and controls them for entire fights, averaging over six takedowns per 15 minutes. He thinks Ewing can be taken down and that Estevam's cardio may improve at bantamweight. He acknowledges Ewing's hype but believes Estevam's style is a tough matchup.

Estevam by decision
"I'm leaning Estevam here. A lot of money is coming in on Ethan Ewing. And I could see a path like stuff the takedowns, but that's going to be hard."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Ethyn Ewing

Cody picks Ewing because Estevam's grappling-heavy style is boring and may not score well with judges trending towards damage. He notes Estevam's weight misses and move up in weight, and believes Ewing's scrambling and striking will earn a decision.

"I got Ethan E-wing. The money line's close enough. I I would think that Rafael Aston being that he's undefeated in the UFC and a little more experience and Brazilian guy that that he should have maybe been the favorite, but I was just looking to get a better price on E-wing than this minus 130 minus 145 kind of out there on the books."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2026 (fight day)
Ethyn Ewing

The host likes Ewing because he is more well-rounded and has multiple paths to victory, while Estevam only has one path (grappling). Ewing showed great cardio and takedown defense in his debut, and Estevam's inefficient wrestling style leads to fatigue. The host caps Ewing at 65% chance to win, seeing value at -148.

Ewing is the only pre-fight bet on the card.
"So yeah, I like Euan in this matchup and hopefully he will come through for us."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Ethyn Ewing

James picks Ethyn Ewing as the underdog, praising his boxing combinations, cardio, and ability to extend strikes in the pocket. He believes Ewing will weather Estevam's early wrestling, win rounds two and three, and potentially secure a late TKO. He notes Estevam's cardio issues and weight cut struggles, and thinks Ewing's calf kicks and defensive improvements will be key. He predicts a round three TKO.

Round 3 TKO prediction
"I have Ethan Ewing to win this fight via round three TKO."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 1, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Ethyn Ewing

James picks Ethyn Ewing as his 'Hammer of the Week' moneyline bet. He believes Ewing's striking, cardio, and ability to extend combinations will overcome Estevam's wrestling. He expects Ewing to win, possibly by finish in later rounds as Estevam tires.

Ethan Ewin round 2 (+650 projected), Ethan Ewin round 3 (+1200 projected)
"I still like Ethan Ewing at this price... I think Ethan Ewing gets it done for us this weekend with a bang, emphatically, maybe even via finish."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 31, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Rafael Estevam

The host believes the hype on Ewing is driving the line, but Estevam's grappling will be the difference. He notes Estevam's 14-0 record, ability to take down dangerous strikers, and submission threat. He expects Estevam to get the fight to the ground and submit Ewing, referencing Ewing's previous submission loss. He took a shot on Estevam at plus money.

Estevam by submission
"I expect Astan to get to his grappling positions. I expect him to probably even pull off a submission here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Ethyn Ewing

Paul sides with Ewing, noting Estevam's style is ill-suited for a move up in weight. He expects Ewing to stuff takedowns and win on the feet, possibly via live betting.

"Yeah, and I I I've been waiting for the Estav train to kind of fall off the tracks. So, I will side with uh with Yuing here as well."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2026 (fight day)
Ethyn Ewing

The MMA Guru picks Ethyn Ewing, noting his impressive performance on short notice against Malcolm Wellmaker and his full camp advantage. He believes Ewing's grappling, cardio, and volume will overwhelm Rafael Estevam, who missed weight and faces pressure. He predicts a third-round finish.

Third-round finish predicted
"I'm going to go with Ethan Ewing. Full camp, got to do better than two days' notice."
Expert Picks (1)
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Oct 27, 2025 (5 days before fight)
No clear pick

Lucrative James mentions this fight in the intro as a grapplers' delight but does not provide a breakdown or pick for it. He does not discuss the matchup in detail later in the transcript.

"We also have an absolute grapplers delight at flyweight. We have Alan Nasamento taking on Raphael Estan."
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rafael Estevam 0 33 of 70 47% 128 of 204 5 of 9 55% 0 0 10:42
Felipe Bunes 0 26 of 56 46% 38 of 75 0 of 1 0% 2 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rafael Estevam 0 8 of 19 42% 12 of 26 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:48
Felipe Bunes 0 7 of 14 50% 8 of 16 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:03
2 Rafael Estevam 0 17 of 35 48% 47 of 83 2 of 4 50% 0 0 4:01
Felipe Bunes 0 9 of 17 52% 13 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Rafael Estevam 0 8 of 16 50% 69 of 95 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:53
Felipe Bunes 0 10 of 25 40% 17 of 33 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rafael Estevam 33 of 70 47% 22 of 50 5 of 14 6 of 6 25 of 57 1 of 1 7 of 12
Felipe Bunes 26 of 56 46% 15 of 39 5 of 11 6 of 6 25 of 54 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rafael Estevam 8 of 19 42% 1 of 9 2 of 5 5 of 5 7 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 1
Felipe Bunes 7 of 14 50% 1 of 6 2 of 4 4 of 4 7 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Rafael Estevam 17 of 35 48% 13 of 25 3 of 9 1 of 1 10 of 24 0 of 0 7 of 11
Felipe Bunes 9 of 17 52% 6 of 13 2 of 3 1 of 1 8 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Rafael Estevam 8 of 16 50% 8 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0 8 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Felipe Bunes 10 of 25 40% 8 of 20 1 of 4 1 of 1 10 of 24 0 of 1 0 of 0
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rafael Estevam 0 11 of 30 36% 60 of 96 11 of 19 57% 0 0 9:22
Jesus Aguilar 0 35 of 87 40% 41 of 95 2 of 5 40% 2 0 1:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rafael Estevam 0 2 of 2 100% 23 of 28 5 of 6 83% 0 0 3:54
Jesus Aguilar 0 2 of 2 100% 3 of 3 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:30
2 Rafael Estevam 0 1 of 2 50% 29 of 42 5 of 7 71% 0 0 4:30
Jesus Aguilar 0 5 of 10 50% 5 of 11 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:00
3 Rafael Estevam 0 8 of 26 30% 8 of 26 1 of 6 16% 0 0 0:58
Jesus Aguilar 0 28 of 75 37% 33 of 81 2 of 4 50% 0 0 0:44
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rafael Estevam 11 of 30 36% 6 of 20 5 of 10 0 of 0 9 of 28 1 of 1 1 of 1
Jesus Aguilar 35 of 87 40% 26 of 75 4 of 5 5 of 7 31 of 76 3 of 10 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rafael Estevam 2 of 2 100% 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1
Jesus Aguilar 2 of 2 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Rafael Estevam 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jesus Aguilar 5 of 10 50% 4 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 7 2 of 2 1 of 1
3 Rafael Estevam 8 of 26 30% 4 of 17 4 of 9 0 of 0 8 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jesus Aguilar 28 of 75 37% 21 of 65 3 of 4 4 of 6 27 of 67 1 of 8 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jesus Santos Aguilar vs. Rafael Estevam
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Estevam (-360), Aguilar (+285)

Round 1
A pair of fighters separated by about five months and five inches of height come to blows in the on-fire flyweight category. While he debuted with a win over Charles Johnson, inactivity has plagued Estevam (12-0, 1-0 UFC) as that victory came in November 2023 and he has not fought since. Since then, Aguilar (11-2, 3-1 UFC) has competed and prevailed on two separate occasions, giving him momentum leading up to their engagement. The third man in the Octagon is referee Chris Tognoni, who observes the sporting clap of hands from the fighters to get going. Aguilar says hello with a low kick, and he charges in with a looping left that allows him to close the distance. Estevam defends the throw setup and prevents Aguilar from tossing him, but the ensuing grappling results in Estevam somehow taking Aguilar’s back. The two jockey for position and threaten with submission setups, and Aguilar sells out for a takedown and winds up pulling Estevam on top of him instead. Estevam smothers from half guard, staying well busy enough to stave off Tognoni. The Brazilian fighter loops his foe’s legs beneath his to further trap him, but Aguilar still times an explosion to power back to his feet. Aguilar grabs hold of a guillotine choke and jumps for it, and he hooks his leg around the back but is unable to fasten the other. “Macapa” calmly works his way out of the sub and he remains on top, following Aguilar every time he tries to scramble. When Aguilar gets to his feet, Estevam has him from behind, and he hunts for a high back ride to drag his man down. Aguilar tries to shoot in, but Estevam controls him until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Estevam
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Estevam
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Estevam

Round 2
Aguilar comes out of his corner like his hair is on fire, with a pair of looping hooks leading into a jump knee. Estevam catches the latter and tries to do something with it, but he lets it go and dives after a takedown. Aguilar is on his seat when defending it, with Estevam quick to lace the legs once more. Estevam sits up and the two slug it out from a seated position, with Aguilar’s back stuck against the wall as he spams elbows and punches with little on them. Estevam wrestles Aguilar back down and dings him with uppercuts, and every time he opens up, Aguilar fights to escape. Tognoni asks for more activity, and Aguilar stands up. Estevam chucks him back to the mat like a side of beef, and Aguilar climbs up, circles around and jumps for a guillotine choke. Estevam stuffs it and forces a 50/50 position, with Aguilar complaining that his glove is being grabbed. Estevam takes his foe’s back and clubs him in the side of the head, hitting a mat return when Aguilar fruitlessly works his way upright once more. Aguilar clings to any low-percentage move he can search for, while Estevam is running a wrestling clinic on him. Estevam wraps up an arm-triangle choke, and he jumps from one side to the other to complete the maneuver. Aguilar turns to his stomach to prevent the submission from completing, and the round closes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Estevam
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Estevam
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Estevam

Round 3
Aguilar is the fast aggressor in the last round, putting hooks behind kicks behind more hooks. Estevam slows his foe down with a slew of front kicks, and Aguilar shrugs them off and charges with looping strikes before pursuing a takedown. Estevam shakes out of the tie-up, and Aguilar walks him down kicking him high and low. Aguilar punches his way into a level change, and Estevam stonewalls him and threatens with his own single. Aguilar stifles it, and the two break apart. Aguilar clubs his opponent with power punches that stun him, and he times a perfect knee when Estevam shoots on him. Aguilar lets him up and starts laying into the unbeaten fighter with massive swinging strikes. Aguilar throws himself off-balance, but he has done some solid damage and likely rocked Estevam on at least one occasion. Estevam keeps a stiff upper lip and is ready for counters, but Aguilar’s aggression is starting to give him issues. Estevam just dodges a huge left hook in time, and Aguilar sits down on a low kick and lunges forward with a jab. Aguilar punches his way into a takedown, where he puts Estevam on the mat but does not establish top control. Instead, Aguilar lets him up and punches him a few times, and he lets Estevam shoot so he can defend with a guillotine. Aguilar climbs on the back—an issue plaguing him several times tonight—and slides off almost immediately. Estevam relishes this opportunity so he can slow Aguilar down, with his sights likely more on surviving than actually trying to put Aguilar away. A few more lather-rinse-repeat takedowns and mat returns come from the Brazilian until time expires.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aguilar (29-28 Estevam)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Aguilar (29-28 Estevam)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Aguilar (29-28 Estevam)

The Official Result
Rafael Estevam def. Jesus Santos Aguilar via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Expert Picks (4)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Rafael Estevam

Angelo is confident in Rafael Estevam, noting his high-pressure grappling and relentless takedowns. He acknowledges that Jesus Aguilar is a guillotine specialist but believes Estevam's offensive wrestling and Jiu-Jitsu defense will neutralize that threat. He trusts Estevam's cardio and thinks the odds are appropriate.

"haam is the pretty confident pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Rafael Estevam

Big Brady picks Estevam by second-round submission, citing his dominant wrestling and ground game. Aguilar is a guillotine specialist but has 0% takedown defense and defensive holes. Estevam must be cautious of the guillotine but should get takedowns easily and eventually submit Aguilar.

submission in round 2
"I like estom here I'm going to say he Subs Aguilar in the second round"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2025 (fight day)
Rafael Estevam

Estevam is undefeated and this is a great opportunity for him to get back on track. He will get Aguilar's back and find a rear-naked choke finish within two rounds.

Estevam by submission, inside 2 rounds
"I think Estevam will get his back eventually and find that rear naked choke and force him to tap within two rounds."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rafael Estevam

The MMA Guru picks Rafael Estevam over Jesus Aguilar, impressed by Estevam's grappling against Charles Johnson. He notes Aguilar has won in the UFC except for his debut loss, but believes Estevam's chain wrestling and ability to manipulate Aguilar's body will secure at least two rounds via grappling.

over 2.5 takedowns for Estevam (PrizePicks)
"I'm GNA go with Rafael estam getting this one done"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rafael Estevam 0 72 of 109 66% 116 of 161 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:43
Charles Johnson 0 18 of 43 41% 35 of 77 3 of 22 13% 1 0 9:23
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rafael Estevam 0 7 of 9 77% 34 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
Charles Johnson 0 8 of 18 44% 17 of 37 2 of 4 50% 0 0 3:49
2 Rafael Estevam 0 11 of 20 55% 20 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:07
Charles Johnson 0 1 of 7 14% 8 of 20 1 of 7 14% 1 0 3:55
3 Rafael Estevam 0 54 of 80 67% 62 of 88 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Charles Johnson 0 9 of 18 50% 10 of 20 0 of 11 0% 0 0 1:39
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rafael Estevam 72 of 109 66% 38 of 69 27 of 33 7 of 7 53 of 80 18 of 26 1 of 3
Charles Johnson 18 of 43 41% 10 of 28 6 of 12 2 of 3 11 of 31 3 of 5 4 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rafael Estevam 7 of 9 77% 0 of 2 1 of 1 6 of 6 1 of 2 6 of 7 0 of 0
Charles Johnson 8 of 18 44% 3 of 9 3 of 6 2 of 3 5 of 13 0 of 0 3 of 5
2 Rafael Estevam 11 of 20 55% 8 of 15 3 of 5 0 of 0 8 of 13 2 of 4 1 of 3
Charles Johnson 1 of 7 14% 1 of 6 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 4 0 of 1 1 of 2
3 Rafael Estevam 54 of 80 67% 30 of 52 23 of 27 1 of 1 44 of 65 10 of 15 0 of 0
Charles Johnson 9 of 18 50% 6 of 13 3 of 5 0 of 0 6 of 14 3 of 4 0 of 0
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Nov 12, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Rafael Estevam

Angelo picks Rafael Estevam with low confidence, citing Charles Johnson's recent lack of urgency and tendency to not do enough to impress judges. He notes Estevam's high-pressure grappling and relentless takedown attempts, though his takedowns are sloppy. He expects a decision and thinks Estevam will edge it.

"I'm GNA go ra rafhael estam here for the win low confidence pick here it's going to come down to the judges I don't see a finish"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Nov 17, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Rafael Estevam

Big Brady thinks people overrate Charles Johnson, noting he's been taken down frequently by wrestlers like Cody Durden and Mohammad Kayev. He believes Estevam is a solid wrestler who will stick to Johnson like glue and grind out a decision. However, he acknowledges this is Estevam's toughest fight by far and the decision could be close due to damage vs control arguments. He's staying away from betting on this fight.

"I think estom is going to kind of stick to this guy Like Glue I don't think he's going to give him any room to breathe and I think estom is going to kind of grind out a decision here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Rafael Estevam

Cody picks Rafael Estevam, citing his wrestling and takedown ability. He notes that Charles Johnson gives up takedowns frequently. Estevam can chain wrestle and control Johnson. Cody also mentions a PrizePicks play on Estevam over 2.5 takedowns.

Cody mentions a PrizePicks play on Estevam over 2.5 takedowns.
"eston will be the pick on the batting side for me"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Rafael Estevam

Estevam has the grappling advantage and cardio edge to control the fight. He will dictate the pace with relentless grappling and clinch control, neutralizing Johnson's volume striking. Estevam's takedown defense and get-ups are solid, but he gets pinned in bad spots. Estevam wins by decision, as he lacks finishing ability but can outwork Johnson.

"I believe minus 150 is a short line considering that estan will likely have the grappling advantage in this matchup he also has the cardio Edge which will allow him to set the pace and keep pushing on Johnson"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Paul initially leans towards Estevam but switches to Charles Johnson as an underdog. He notes Johnson's excellent get-up game and cardio advantage. Paul thinks if Estevam's debut nerves or weight cut issues arise, Johnson can out-strike him. He admits it's a risky pick and will wait for weigh-ins.

Paul mentions the fight going the distance as a possible play.
"I'm going to take Charles Johnson Underdog"
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The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

The MMA Guru picks Charles Johnson over Rafael Estevam, noting that Estevam's Contender Series win came against a fighter with a padded record and that Estevam relied on top position after escaping submissions. He highlights Johnson's experience against tough UFC opponents like Muhammad Mokaev, where Johnson out-struck Mokaev but was out-grappled. He believes Johnson's takedown defense, cardio, and ability to break Estevam in the third round will lead to a win.

"I'm going to go with Charles Johnson in this early prelim opener... I think he's going to get the win against Rafael Estevam because he's more experienced, he's got the cardio, he's got the takedown defense, and I reckon he can break Estevam in the third round."