Fight card

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan

April 04, 2026 Meta Apex Enterprise, Nevada, United States
Renato Moicano

Renato Moicano W

21-7-1
Submission R2 3:14
Fight 1 VS Lightweight Completed

Renato Moicano

No odds available.

Chris Duncan

No odds available.

Fighter Stats

Renato Moicano

Age37
Height5' 11"
Reach72.0"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Chris Duncan

Age33
Height5' 10"
Reach71.0"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Renato Moicano

4.1SLpM
49.0%Str. Acc.
3.55SApM
59.0%Str. Def.
1.68TD Avg
40.0%TD Acc.
64.0%TD Def.
0.6Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Chris Duncan

4.83SLpM
45.0%Str. Acc.
4.57SApM
50.0%Str. Def.
2.92TD Avg
40.0%TD Acc.
55.0%TD Def.
0.6Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (10)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 29, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Angelo picks Chris Duncan, noting his durability and never-quit attitude. He acknowledges Moicano is more technical and experienced but believes Moicano is old and used up. He points out that Duncan has a history of winning fights he's not supposed to and that Moicano's recent focus may not be enough. Angelo has no bet on this fight.

"Chris Duncan is going to be the pick. I think Moano is a little too old and used up at this point."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Big Brady picks Chris Duncan to win by third-round knockout. He notes that Moicano is dangerous in the first round but fades after that, citing the Dariush fight where Moicano did nothing in the last 10 minutes. He believes Duncan has better cardio, durability, and power, and that his takedown defense has improved since the Manuel Torres loss. He expects Duncan to drop the first round but take over and eventually knock out Moicano.

Duncan by KO in round 3
"I'm going to take Chris Duncan to win this fight. I'll take him to win this fight by third round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Cody picks Duncan due to his momentum, youth, and ability to take over in later rounds. He notes Moicano's losing streak and potential lack of focus, but acknowledges the fight could be competitive early. He expects Duncan's superior striking and work rate to secure a win.

"Personally, I'm going to end up going Duncan just being that he's the younger guy. He's got a whole lot of momentum right now."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked Apr 4, 2026 (fight day)
No clear pick

The host finds it difficult to bet pre-fight. He notes Duncan is easy to take down, which plays into Moicano's strength, but Moicano's chin and cardio are questionable in a five-round fight. He sees value on neither side and will watch for live betting. He also notes the odds for 'fight doesn't go to decision' are terrible.

Odds for fight not to go to decision are terrible, so no bet.
"So for me, it's a very difficult for a pre-fight bet. And I'll probably give this one a miss pre-fight. Um, difficult fight to pre-fight. Hopefully we can live bet it."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 1, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

James is rooting for his friend Chris Duncan and has released a full breakdown video with him. He mentions Chris is his friend and he will be rooting for him against Moicano, indicating a clear pick for Duncan.

"I'm definitely going to be rooting for him against Moicano this week"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Lucrative James picks Chris Duncan to win, citing Duncan's upward trajectory, age advantage (32 vs 36), superior cardio, durability, and will to win. He notes Moicano's possible decline due to outside interests and a longer camp. James expects a war but believes Duncan's physicality and recoverability will carry him, especially in later rounds. He mentions Duncan's power and takedown defense as key factors, though he acknowledges Moicano's early speed and submission threat. James states he won't bet publicly due to friendship bias but will have 'beer money' on Duncan.

No public bet; beer money on Duncan moneyline
"I'm picking Chris to win this one. I think it's going to be a good fight. I think it's going to be another war, honestly."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Lucrative James picks Chris Duncan to win, citing his durability and power advantage over Moicano. He believes Duncan's momentum and shorter camp have him in peak form, and he predicts a fourth-round TKO finish. James also notes that Duncan's confidence is high from training with Moicano and seeing his own improvement.

Fourth round TKO
"I definitely think you got a durability advantage here. I think you got a power advantage. So, those two put together."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 31, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

The host expects Duncan to counter Moicano effectively, showcase good grappling defense, and eventually break Moicano for a finish inside the distance. He notes Moicano's recent struggles, poor durability, and questionable gas tank, while Duncan is on a four-fight winning streak with evolving skills. The host predicts a second-round TKO or submission for Duncan.

under 2.5 rounds at -125
"I look for Duncan to counter Moano effectively... I think at a certain point within 10 maybe 12 and a half minutes we will see one of these guys get a finish. And I'm expecting it to be …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Paul leans towards Duncan, citing that Moicano struggles when outwrestled. He expects Duncan to use takedowns and control to win, though he's not heavily invested and plans to live bet.

"Duncan minus 170. Um, it's how I'd play it if I were to click the button right now."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2026 (fight day)
Chris Duncan

The MMA Guru picks Chris Duncan, admitting he has doubted him before but is now convinced. He believes Duncan's durability, grit, and damage output will overcome Moicano, especially if the fight gets scrappy. He notes Moicano hasn't looked himself and that Duncan has good submission defense. He predicts a third-round TKO.

Third-round TKO predicted
"I'm taking Duncan to win. I'm done doubting him. I'm done doubting Dunk."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Virna Jandiroba

Virna Jandiroba W

23-4
Decision R3 5:00
Fight 2 VS Women's Strawweight Completed

Virna Jandiroba

No odds available.

Tabatha Ricci

No odds available.

Fighter Stats

Virna Jandiroba

Age38
Height5' 3"
Reach64.0"
Weight115 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Tabatha Ricci

Age31
Height5' 1"
Reach61.0"
Weight115 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Virna Jandiroba

2.27SLpM
41.0%Str. Acc.
2.86SApM
55.0%Str. Def.
3.13TD Avg
39.0%TD Acc.
72.0%TD Def.
1.4Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Tabatha Ricci

4.0SLpM
37.0%Str. Acc.
4.83SApM
57.0%Str. Def.
2.51TD Avg
37.0%TD Acc.
65.0%TD Def.
0.1Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 29, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Angelo picks Virna Jandiroba, believing she is the better wrestler and can control the fight. He criticizes Tabatha Ricci's striking, saying she thinks she's a boxer but isn't, and her takedowns are poor. He notes Jandiroba is one judge away from being champion and expects her to grind out a win. He placed a half-unit bet on Jandiroba at +115.

Angelo says 'I threw a half a unit on Verna at plus 115.'
"Vera's going to get all the takedowns, have all the control time."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 30, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Big Brady leans toward Tabatha Ricci but with low confidence. He acknowledges Jandiroba is a higher-level grappler but thinks Ricci is stronger, has better wrestling, and is the better striker. He sees a path where Ricci stuffs takedowns and wins on the feet. He also notes Jandiroba's age (37) and potential lack of motivation after a title loss. He will not bet this fight.

No bet
"I'm leaning Ricci here. Not with a ton of confidence cuz Verna is a tricky tricky fighter to pick and bet against. I will not be betting this fight."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Cody picks Ricci because she is the better striker and has excellent takedown defense, making it hard for Jandiroba to hold her down. He believes the judges will favor damage over control time, and Ricci's striking will leave a lasting impression.

"Rei just maybe lands a few more damaging blows. Reachi's last fight with Hebas, you saw those elbows from the clinch, big shots against the cage. That's probably what's going to be the lasting impression on the judg's …"
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked Apr 4, 2026 (fight day)
No clear pick

The host is torn on the winner, seeing strong cases for both. He initially leaned Ricci due to youth and volume, but after research, he sees Jandiroba's power and ground advantage as significant. He concludes the fight is too close to bet pre-fight and prefers live betting. However, he does bet Ricci +3.5 on the fight spread.

Bet on Tabatha Ricci +3.5 (fight spread).
"I do like Richie plus 3.5 just because I think with how much Janderroa slows down and the pace at which Richie fights at, I think no matter what happens, Richie will make Jander Robba work very hard."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Apr 1, 2026 (3 days before fight)
No clear pick

James mentions the co-main event but does not give a pick for either fighter. He only describes the matchup as interesting.

"We have a co-main event that doesn't light your hair on fire, but it's probably going to be a interesting match-up at least."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Mar 30, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

James leans toward Virna Jandiroba as the underdog, surprised by the odds given Jandiroba's recent title fight and superior grappling. He believes Jandiroba's top control and submission threat are the best in the division, and that Ricci hasn't faced such a test. He notes Ricci's striking advantage but doubts her power, calling her knockout of Amanda Ribas a fluke. However, he hesitates due to Jandiroba's age (37) and potential post-title-fight letdown, and mentions he might bet the over instead. He picks Jandiroba via decision but is not confident enough to bet.

Considering over 2.5 rounds; no bet placed
"I have to pick Vera for that reason. I don't know if I'm going to bet her though honestly, boys."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 31, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

The host believes Jandiroba's grappling will be too much for Ricci, as she can get takedowns and keep Ricci in defensive positions. He notes Ricci's improved striking but doubts she can provide enough danger to keep Jandiroba from her game. He expects Jandiroba to win by decision, controlling the fight with top pressure.

"I think Janji Doba is a good enough grappler that she'll be able to keep Reachi in defensive positions for the most part... I like Jangidoba here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Paul leans towards Ricci, noting that Jandiroba's grappling-heavy style may not score well if judges prioritize damage. He acknowledges Jandiroba's takedown ability but thinks Ricci's striking and ability to get back up will be key.

"I don't know. It's basically a pick them and it's going to be a fight for who can get top control and really nobody's been getting top control and and and being able to win that type of …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2026 (fight day)
Tabatha Ricci

The MMA Guru picks Tabatha Ricci, predicting a controversial decision win. He believes Ricci will be out-grappled but the judges will favor her, possibly setting up a future fight with Mackenzie Dern. He notes Jandiroba looked bad against Dern and that Ricci is coming off a TKO win.

Controversial decision predicted
"I'm going to go with Tabatha Ricci, man. I can see this being a weird scorecard, 29-28. They give it a win."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev

Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev W

9-0
Submission R1 2:52
Fight 3 VS Light Heavyweight Completed

Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev

No odds available.

Brendson Ribeiro

No odds available.

Fighter Stats

Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev

Age25
Height6' 2"
Reach78"
Weight205 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Brendson Ribeiro

Age29
Height6' 3"
Reach81.0"
Weight205 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev

7.4SLpM
67.0%Str. Acc.
2.3SApM
57.0%Str. Def.
11.49TD Avg
75.0%TD Acc.
100.0%TD Def.
7.7Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Brendson Ribeiro

3.04SLpM
42.0%Str. Acc.
3.91SApM
53.0%Str. Def.
0.85TD Avg
42.0%TD Acc.
21.0%TD Def.
0.6Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock picked Mar 29, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev

Angelo is extremely confident in Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev, calling it the easiest pick on the card. He notes Yakhyaev is a good prospect with wrestling, striking, and power, while Brendson Ribeiro is hitable and has a quit button. However, he strongly advises against betting at -1400 odds, calling it not worth the risk.

Angelo mentions the odds -1400 and says 'Do nothing with this. You cannot bet on a minus400 favorite.' He suggests finding a prop instead.
"Yakayv, no discussion. He wins this fight 10 out of 10 times."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lock picked Mar 30, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev

Big Brady is extremely confident Yakhyaev will win, calling it 'dumb matchmaking.' He expects Yakhyaev to knock out Ribeiro within the first minute, as he has done in recent fights. He notes Ribeiro has no chin and that Yakhyaev finishes fights quickly.

Yakhyaev by KO in first minute
"Yakhyaev's going to come forward and he's going to knock out Brendson Ribeiro in the first a minute of the fight."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev

Cody is confident Yakhyaev wins by first-round knockout, given Ribeiro's history of first-round KO losses. He notes Yakhyaev's well-rounded skills and the mismatch, but warns about the prohibitive moneyline.

first round knockout +130
"I got first round knockout for Yaki being that he is probably he's wellrounded. He can submit you just as easily can knock you out. But I think in Brenson Rivero's case, his last five knockout or his …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 1, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev

James is very high on Yakhyaev, calling him one of the greatest fighters in the division and predicting he will steamroll Ribeiro and become a champion. He compares his confidence to his previous correct call on Loena Cavana.

"I think this guy is going to steamroll Brener Ribeiro and I think he's going to become either a champion or fight for the belt in the next 3 years."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lock picked Mar 30, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev

James is extremely confident in Yakhyaev, calling it a 'murder scene.' He highlights Yakhyaev's explosiveness, wrestling, and finishing ability, while noting Ribeiro's lack of durability and short-notice camp. He predicts a round one KO, stating Yakhyaev is a legitimate prospect who will run through Ribeiro. He mentions the odds are too high to bet but is certain of the outcome.

Round 1 KO prediction
"I'm calling a round one finish for Yaky. The guy is minus 1,400 on a money line. I don't really want to speak too much in depth about this one, boys."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 31, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev

The host is extremely confident in Yakhyaev, citing his insane ceiling, dangerous grappling and striking, and a horrible stylistic matchup for Ribeiro. He expects a first-round finish and advises against parlaying the heavy chalk, instead looking for props. He notes Ribeiro's recent losses and lack of success against similar competition.

under 1.5 rounds at -380; round 1 prop on Yakhyaev
"I think Yaky runs through him as well. I think he finishes him in the first round."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev

Paul is confident Yakhyaev wins, likely by submission or KO in the first round. He notes the price is prohibitive but suggests playing the round one prop or parlay.

round one prop
"Maybe maybe the move is just eat the chalk on the the round one prop, which is super like minus 227 is the best I can play on that. Um I can parlay that up. That's probably how …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2026 (fight day)
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev

The MMA Guru confidently picks Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev, citing his undefeated record, fast starts, and nasty finishes. He notes that Brendson Ribeiro has been finished multiple times early in fights and expects Yakhyaev to secure a first-round TKO.

First-round TKO predicted
"Against someone like Yakhyaev who starts so fast and so dangerous, it's a recipe for a first round TKO for him."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Ethyn Ewing

Ethyn Ewing W

10-2
KO R3 1:44
Fight 4 VS Catchweight (136.5 lb) Completed

Ethyn Ewing

No odds available.

Rafael Estevam

No odds available.

Fighter Stats

Ethyn Ewing

Age30
Height5' 6"
Reach69"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Rafael Estevam

Age29
Height5' 8"
Reach69.0"
Weight125 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Ethyn Ewing

7.44SLpM
55.0%Str. Acc.
4.53SApM
63.0%Str. Def.
1.68TD Avg
60.0%TD Acc.
100.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Rafael Estevam

2.4SLpM
39.0%Str. Acc.
3.9SApM
45.0%Str. Def.
4.91TD Avg
33.0%TD Acc.
66.0%TD Def.
0.2Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 29, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Rafael Estevam

Angelo picks Rafael Estevam, citing recency bias in the line. He notes Estevam is a high-pressure grappler with relentless takedowns, while Ethyn Ewing's takedown defense is unproven. He believes Estevam will overwhelm Ewing with wrestling and control. Angelo mentions he bet on Estevam and would be shocked if he doesn't flip to favorite.

Angelo says 'I bet on Estam here.'
"Estav is the pick. I bet on Estam here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Mar 30, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Rafael Estevam

Big Brady picks Rafael Estevam as an underdog. He notes Estevam is a dominant grappler who takes opponents down and controls them for entire fights, averaging over six takedowns per 15 minutes. He thinks Ewing can be taken down and that Estevam's cardio may improve at bantamweight. He acknowledges Ewing's hype but believes Estevam's style is a tough matchup.

Estevam by decision
"I'm leaning Estevam here. A lot of money is coming in on Ethan Ewing. And I could see a path like stuff the takedowns, but that's going to be hard."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Ethyn Ewing

Cody picks Ewing because Estevam's grappling-heavy style is boring and may not score well with judges trending towards damage. He notes Estevam's weight misses and move up in weight, and believes Ewing's scrambling and striking will earn a decision.

"I got Ethan E-wing. The money line's close enough. I I would think that Rafael Aston being that he's undefeated in the UFC and a little more experience and Brazilian guy that that he should have maybe been …"
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2026 (fight day)
Ethyn Ewing

The host likes Ewing because he is more well-rounded and has multiple paths to victory, while Estevam only has one path (grappling). Ewing showed great cardio and takedown defense in his debut, and Estevam's inefficient wrestling style leads to fatigue. The host caps Ewing at 65% chance to win, seeing value at -148.

Ewing is the only pre-fight bet on the card.
"So yeah, I like Euan in this matchup and hopefully he will come through for us."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 1, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Ethyn Ewing

James picks Ethyn Ewing as his 'Hammer of the Week' moneyline bet. He believes Ewing's striking, cardio, and ability to extend combinations will overcome Estevam's wrestling. He expects Ewing to win, possibly by finish in later rounds as Estevam tires.

Ethan Ewin round 2 (+650 projected), Ethan Ewin round 3 (+1200 projected)
"I still like Ethan Ewing at this price... I think Ethan Ewing gets it done for us this weekend with a bang, emphatically, maybe even via finish."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Ethyn Ewing

James picks Ethyn Ewing as the underdog, praising his boxing combinations, cardio, and ability to extend strikes in the pocket. He believes Ewing will weather Estevam's early wrestling, win rounds two and three, and potentially secure a late TKO. He notes Estevam's cardio issues and weight cut struggles, and thinks Ewing's calf kicks and defensive improvements will be key. He predicts a round three TKO.

Round 3 TKO prediction
"I have Ethan Ewing to win this fight via round three TKO."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 31, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Rafael Estevam

The host believes the hype on Ewing is driving the line, but Estevam's grappling will be the difference. He notes Estevam's 14-0 record, ability to take down dangerous strikers, and submission threat. He expects Estevam to get the fight to the ground and submit Ewing, referencing Ewing's previous submission loss. He took a shot on Estevam at plus money.

Estevam by submission
"I expect Astan to get to his grappling positions. I expect him to probably even pull off a submission here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Ethyn Ewing

Paul sides with Ewing, noting Estevam's style is ill-suited for a move up in weight. He expects Ewing to stuff takedowns and win on the feet, possibly via live betting.

"Yeah, and I I I've been waiting for the Estav train to kind of fall off the tracks. So, I will side with uh with Yuing here as well."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2026 (fight day)
Ethyn Ewing

The MMA Guru picks Ethyn Ewing, noting his impressive performance on short notice against Malcolm Wellmaker and his full camp advantage. He believes Ewing's grappling, cardio, and volume will overwhelm Rafael Estevam, who missed weight and faces pressure. He predicts a third-round finish.

Third-round finish predicted
"I'm going to go with Ethan Ewing. Full camp, got to do better than two days' notice."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Tommy McMillen

Tommy McMillen W

10-0
KO R1 3:57
Fight 5 VS Featherweight Completed

Tommy McMillen

No odds available.

Manolo Zecchini

No odds available.

Fighter Stats

Tommy McMillen

Age28
Height6' 0"
Reach74"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Manolo Zecchini

Age29
Height5' 8"
Reach68.0"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Tommy McMillen

9.87SLpM
53.0%Str. Acc.
5.54SApM
58.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
83.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Manolo Zecchini

3.72SLpM
28.0%Str. Acc.
12.82SApM
45.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
0.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 29, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Tommy McMillen

Angelo picks Tommy McMillen, viewing it as a showcase fight set up by the UFC. He notes McMillen is exciting and tough but also very hitable. He believes McMillen will win spectacularly but warns he may be a busted prospect in future fights. Angelo does not see Manolo Zecchini winning.

"Tommy's the pick. I do not see Monolo winning this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lock picked Mar 30, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Tommy McMillen

Big Brady is extremely confident McMillen will win, calling Zecchini a 'bum' who hasn't fought in three years. He expects McMillen to take Zecchini down and submit him in the first round, as Zecchini has no ground game.

McMillen by first-round submission
"Tommy McMillan McMillan by first round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Tommy McMillen

Cody picks McMillen by TKO, expecting him to overwhelm Zecchini with pressure and striking. He notes McMillen's wrestling and tenacity, and believes Zecchini will fold under pressure.

TKO prop
"I feel like this is a good spot for him to just kind of show off his striking, let his hands go, and then against an opponent that really can't take those shots should be able to crumple …"
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked Apr 4, 2026 (fight day)
No clear pick

The host says McMillen is a huge favorite but unplayable due to terrible odds. He notes McMillen is tough and well-rounded, but the odds are too aggressive. He suggests only Zecchini is worth a bet as a dog, but he doesn't take it because McMillen is better everywhere. He will look for live betting opportunities.

Will look for live betting opportunities.
"So this is obviously dog or pass. If you want to bet this fight, you must take Zakini. H. But just know if you do that, he is facing a guy that is better than him everywhere."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Apr 1, 2026 (3 days before fight)
No clear pick

James mentions Tommy McMillon as a high prospect but does not give a pick for the fight. He only notes the matchup exists.

"We have a very high prospect, Tommy McMillon, on this card."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Tommy McMillen

James picks Tommy McMillen to win easily, predicting a round one submission via front choke. He notes McMillen's hype but questions his striking defense, though he believes Zecchini is not UFC-level and has been out since 2023. He expects McMillen's grappling to be the difference, possibly setting up a submission after hurting Zecchini on the feet.

Round 1 submission prediction
"I will actually call a front choke finish in round one for Tommy McMillan here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 31, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Tommy McMillen

The host expects McMillen to win via submission, likely in the first round and a half, given his BJJ skills and Zecchini's layoff and unimpressive striking. He notes the UFC is giving McMillen a favorable matchup to push him. However, he has low confidence due to the heavy chalk and advises against parlaying such a short price.

McMillen by submission at -150; under 1.5 rounds
"I think McMillan wins. I think he eventually finds uh a submission opportunity and forces the tap from the Italian."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Tommy McMillen

Paul picks McMillen by submission, noting his guillotine and rear-naked choke wins. However, he acknowledges Zecchini may not shoot takedowns, so McMillen might win by TKO instead.

submission prop
"McMillan by sub. Yeah, McMillan by whatever he wants."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2026 (fight day)
Tommy McMillen

The MMA Guru confidently picks Tommy McMillen, highlighting his wrestling pedigree, striking similar to Sean O'Malley, and his dominant Contender Series win. He notes that Manolo Zecchini was easily finished by Morgan Charriere and expects McMillen to win by TKO or submission.

TKO or submission predicted
"I'm going to say that he wins this one by like guillotine or something... I'm going to go a TKO."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

JO

Jose Delgado W

Decision R3 5:00
Fight 6 VS Featherweight Completed

Jose Delgado

No odds available.

Robert Ruchała

No odds available.

Fighter Stats

Jose Delgado

Age28
Height5' 11"
Reach73.0"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Robert Ruchała

Age28
Height5' 8"
Reach72"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Career Averages - Jose Delgado

7.48SLpM
54.0%Str. Acc.
4.95SApM
50.0%Str. Def.
1.51TD Avg
40.0%TD Acc.
50.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Robert Ruchała

3.37SLpM
34.0%Str. Acc.
5.2SApM
45.0%Str. Def.
1.0TD Avg
22.0%TD Acc.
71.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 29, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Jose Delgado

Angelo picks Jose Delgado, praising his footwork, tight guard, and ability to stay at range. He acknowledges Robert Ruchała's pressure and toughness but believes Delgado's superior technique and movement will allow him to avoid trouble and win. He notes the odds are -400 and that it could get weird if Ruchała's pressure frustrates Delgado, but he is squarely on Delgado.

"Jose Delano is going to be the pick. Minus 400. I'm honestly that could get weird fast."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Jose Delgado

Big Brady picks Jose Delgado by decision. He praises Delgado as a great prospect with well-rounded skills, good striking, cardio, and takedown defense. He expects Delgado to stuff takedowns and out-strike Ruchała over 15 minutes, noting Ruchała is tough but outmatched.

Delgado by decision
"Give me De Leon. Give me De Leon by decision in this one."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Jose Delgado

Cody picks Delgado due to his high-volume, accurate striking and takedown defense. He expects Delgado to outwork Ruchała on the feet and win a decision, as Ruchała is tough but slower and lower volume.

"Delano is a guy to me that I do think is a legitimate prospect and and a guy that's going to have some success, but this is not an easy UFC debut. This is one where you're going …"
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked Apr 4, 2026 (fight day)
No clear pick

The host finds the odds wide but is not interested in betting pre-fight. He notes Delgado is more technical on the feet but Ruchała is tough and mixes in grappling, which could cause problems. He sees it as a good live betting fight but not for pre-fight.

"So, it's a good one for live betting but a difficult one from a pre-fight betting point of view."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Jose Delgado

James confidently picks Jose Delgado, stating he is better everywhere and should dominate. He notes Delgado's composure, decision wins, and ability to read opponents, while Ruchała is limited outside of top position. He predicts a decision win but expects a beatdown in round three. He mentions Delgado's past fight where a corner stoppage didn't happen due to Contender Series rules.

Decision win prediction
"We have to pick Jose Delano in this fight. I mean, he's the biggest favorite on the card."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 31, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Jose Delgado

The host believes Delgado's striking edge will be too much for Ruchała, who will struggle to get takedowns and will get countered. He expects Delgado to win by decision, as Ruchała is durable but outmatched on the feet. He likes the over 2.5 rounds as a betting spot instead of taking the heavy chalk on Delgado.

over 2.5 rounds at -150
"I think Dulano's uh striking edge is going to be too much for Rutala here... I expect this to go 15 minutes."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Jose Delgado

Paul picks Delgado, noting his accuracy and volume. He believes Delgado's footwork and striking will be too much for Ruchała, who is flat-footed and slower.

"I got Jose Delino. When you watch him fight uh you know, a lot of his LFA run, it's like the guy's a very accurate striker. He's high volume, but just like he has a very good high …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2026 (fight day)
Jose Delgado

The MMA Guru picks Jose Delgado, praising his skills as an LFA champion and noting his close loss to Gabriel Santos. He believes Delgado's experience and recent wins make him the better fighter, predicting a decision victory.

Decision win predicted
"I think I'm going to go with Jose Delano by decision."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Fight 7 VS Heavyweight Completed
Thomas Petersen

Thomas Petersen W

11-4
Decision R3 5:00

Guilherme Pat

No odds available.

Thomas Petersen

No odds available.

Fighter Stats

Guilherme Pat

Age32
Height6' 6"
Reach81"
Weight265 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Thomas Petersen

Age31
Height6' 1"
Reach74.0"
Weight264 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Career Averages - Guilherme Pat

2.7SLpM
61.0%Str. Acc.
2.03SApM
51.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
100.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Thomas Petersen

3.1SLpM
59.0%Str. Acc.
2.61SApM
54.0%Str. Def.
3.01TD Avg
43.0%TD Acc.
87.0%TD Def.
0.4Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 29, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Thomas Petersen

Angelo picks Thomas Petersen despite acknowledging his poor striking, because Petersen is a strong wrestler with good top control. He notes that Guilherme Pat has poor takedown defense and can be held against the cage. Angelo believes Petersen can absorb Pat's strikes, close the distance, and grind out a win on the ground. He cautions that picks are not bets but thinks Petersen can get the takedowns.

"I'm going to pick Thomas to win this fight. Picks are not bets."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 30, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Thomas Petersen

Big Brady picks Thomas Petersen but with low confidence. He notes Petersen has good wrestling but is inconsistent. He thinks Petersen needs to wrestle hard for 15 minutes to win, and that Pat is a solid striker but can be controlled. He expects a greasy decision win for Petersen.

Petersen by decision
"I'm going to pick him here to win this fight. I'm going to take him to, you know, cage push here, get some control time against the the cage, mix in the takedowns, and win a very greasy …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Thomas Petersen

Cody picks Petersen, expecting him to use his wrestling to control Pat on the ground. He notes Petersen's wrestling background and Pat's inexperience, and believes Petersen will secure a decision or late finish.

"I'm expecting him to do the right thing. And uh and just keep this guy chest to chest for as long as you can. Kill out the clock, pick up the dub. So it's going to be a …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Apr 3, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Thomas Petersen

Connor leans toward Peterson, citing his reproducible approach and ability to beat better athletes. He notes Peterson is a reasonable wrestler and better than Fry, which could neutralize Pat. However, he admits Pat could come in much better and that Peterson has been knocked out before, making it a low-confidence pick.

Odds should be dead even; Peterson opened -130, now -113.
"Peterson has a reproducible approach to fights that has allowed him to beat better athletes already."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Mar 30, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Thomas Petersen

James hesitantly picks Thomas Petersen, predicting he will get outskilled early but come back to win via finish in round three or a close decision. He notes Pat's superior athleticism and footwork but criticizes his lack of finishing instinct and tendency to gas. He believes Petersen's wrestling, grit, and size advantage will wear on Pat as the fight progresses. He admits he needs to watch more tape and is not fully confident.

Round 3 finish or decision prediction
"I'm going to say Peterson gets styled on for 7 and 1/2 minutes and then he comes back and gets a finish in round three."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 31, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Thomas Petersen

The host picks Petersen, citing his wrestling, cardio, and top control as kryptonite to Pat's power. He notes Pat's lackluster UFC debut and reliance on power, while Petersen has better grappling and gas tank. However, he has mediocre confidence due to the possibility of Pat landing a big shot early. He predicts Petersen by decision.

Petersen by decision
"I like Peterson here. I'll I'll I'll muzzle my confidence a bit... I think he wins this fight."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Thomas Petersen

Paul leans towards Petersen, noting his wrestling advantage and Pat's struggles against cage pressure. He expects Petersen to grind out a win, though he's not fully confident.

"Thomas Peterson, lock of the century. Um, kidding, but he should be able to get to the hips."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Apr 4, 2026 (fight day)
Thomas Petersen

The MMA Guru picks Thomas Petersen, citing his crafty wrestling and size advantage. He notes that Guilherme Pat was held against the cage by a lesser opponent and that Petersen has good boxing and grappling. He seems somewhat uncertain but leans towards Petersen.

"I'm going to go Thomas Peterson, I think. I'm going to go with Thomas Peterson because you know what? He actually does have a crafty wrestling game."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Apr 3, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Guilherme Pat

Zane picks Pat but is hesitant, noting that Pat lands bigger shots but gets mashed on the cage. He sees Pat as the better athlete and believes he could come in improved, but acknowledges Peterson's reproducible approach and wrestling advantage. The fight is likely a slog with Pat winning rounds on the feet but losing time in clinch.

Odds should be dead even; Pat opened +110, now -107; Peterson opened -130, now -113.
"I'll take Pat too, but this fight sucks... Pat lands the bigger shots in every round and then just gets mashed on the cage for three minutes per round."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Alessandro Costa

Alessandro Costa W

15-5
KO R2 4:56
Fight 8 VS Flyweight Completed

Alessandro Costa

No odds available.

Stewart Nicoll

No odds available.

Fighter Stats

Alessandro Costa

Age30
Height5' 4"
Reach67.0"
Weight125 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Stewart Nicoll

Age30
Height5' 5"
Reach65.0"
Weight125 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Alessandro Costa

3.73SLpM
45.0%Str. Acc.
3.72SApM
56.0%Str. Def.
0.79TD Avg
26.0%TD Acc.
86.0%TD Def.
0.4Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Stewart Nicoll

3.63SLpM
39.0%Str. Acc.
5.84SApM
49.0%Str. Def.
1.63TD Avg
11.0%TD Acc.
28.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (10)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 29, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Angelo picks Alessandro Costa, believing he is better than his record and will bust up Stewart Nicoll. He notes Costa's power, leg kicks, and striking accuracy, while Nicoll is hitable on the feet and his takedowns are desperate. Angelo dismisses Costa's last loss due to a freak foot injury and expects Costa to be well-prepared for Nicoll's wrestling.

"I'm going to pick him with confidence and I'm going to see him bust this dude up."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Big Brady picks Alessandro Costa by second-round knockout. He likes Costa's power, opportunistic jiu-jitsu, and takedown defense. He criticizes Nicoll's wrestling, noting he went 2-for-20 on takedowns against Lucas Rocha, who has no takedown defense. He expects Costa to knock out Nicoll on the feet.

Costa by KO in round 2
"I'll take Costa to win this fight by second round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Cody picks Costa, citing his takedown defense and power. He expects Costa to stuff Nicoll's takedowns and land heavy shots, winning by decision or late TKO.

"I think Costa is the better play. He's the better guy. And when you're looking at the big favorites on this card, he's not minus 2,000 like Yakv. He's not minus 1,200 like McMillan. He's minus 400."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Costa confidently. He emphasizes that Nicoll is too excitable and not technical enough, often making wrong moves and allowing opponents to dictate. Costa's aggression and physicality should overwhelm Nicoll, who has shown a tendency to leapfrog into submissions and get overexcited.

Costa opened -450, now -400; Nicoll opened +350, now +330.
"I don't see anything in Nicoll's game that can technically hold Costa off."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked Apr 4, 2026 (fight day)
No clear pick

The host sees potential value on Nicoll due to Costa's weakness on the ground, but is not confident enough to bet pre-fight. He notes Nicoll's persistent wrestling could exploit Costa's poor ground game, but Costa's power and takedown defense make it risky. He prefers to watch for live betting.

Interesting for live betting.
"So for me, this is a very interesting fight from a live betting point of view. I can't pre-fight bet this one because, you know, based on Nicholls last fight against Rosher, he will likely stroll to get …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

James picks Alessandro Costa via TKO in round two, citing Costa's athleticism, striking power, and training with Diego Lopez. He notes Nicoll's limited striking and tendency to be submitted, but warns Costa has poor round threes and has been knocked out twice. He believes Costa's physicality and finishing ability will be enough to get the job done inside the distance, as he has in his other UFC wins.

Round 2 TKO prediction
"Aleandro Costa knockout in round two is my official prediction."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 31, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

The host believes Costa is the better striker with a nasty calf kick and good enough grappling to neutralize Nicoll. He notes Nicoll's two-fight losing streak and struggles in the UFC. He expects Costa to win inside the distance, possibly via TKO from the calf kick. He is willing to parlay Costa.

Costa inside the distance
"I think Costa wins. I think he actually does enough damage to Nicola, especially with that calf kick and that he works himself to a finish here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Paul picks Costa, noting Nicoll's poor wrestling and durability issues. He expects Costa to win, possibly by KO, but warns the moneyline is steep.

"Costa for me, am I going to let Costa minus 400 ruin my week? I don't think so."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2026 (fight day)
Alessandro Costa

The MMA Guru picks Alessandro Costa, noting he dropped Erceg and has finishes, while Stewart Nicoll looked incapable of causing harm in his last fight. He believes Costa's explosiveness will lead to a TKO victory.

TKO victory predicted
"I'm going to say that Alessandro Costa puts him away by TKO."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Zane picks Costa confidently, noting that Costa is a reliable action fighter who dictates the pace with aggression and physicality. He sees Nicoll as too excitable and not technical enough, prone to making wrong moves and getting overwhelmed. Costa's determination to go forward and toughness should overcome Nicoll's lack of composure.

Costa opened -450, now -400; Nicoll opened +350, now +330.
"I will take Costa as well."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Fight 9 VS Catchweight (156.5 lb) Completed
Darrius Flowers

Darrius Flowers W

13-8-1
KO R2 0:52

Lando Vannata

No odds available.

Darrius Flowers

No odds available.

Fighter Stats

Lando Vannata

Age34
Height5' 9"
Reach71.0"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Darrius Flowers

Age31
Height5' 9"
Reach71.0"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Lando Vannata

4.52SLpM
45.0%Str. Acc.
4.71SApM
54.0%Str. Def.
1.24TD Avg
36.0%TD Acc.
66.0%TD Def.
0.3Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Darrius Flowers

3.13SLpM
50.0%Str. Acc.
5.35SApM
42.0%Str. Def.
1.65TD Avg
44.0%TD Acc.
66.0%TD Def.
0.4Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 29, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Darrius Flowers

Angelo picks Darrius Flowers primarily because Lando Vannata hasn't fought in three years and was on a losing streak before the layoff. He acknowledges that no one can intelligently break down this fight due to the unknowns, but Flowers has fought recently and will move forward and swing. Angelo is not confident and advises against betting on this fight.

No prop bets or odds mentioned; Angelo explicitly says 'you should do literally nothing with that information'.
"I got to go with Darius Flowers. I'll pick the guy that has fought in this century."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Mar 30, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Lando Vannata

Big Brady picks Lando Vannata despite his long layoff and losing streak. He criticizes Flowers as one of the worst fighters, with many KO and submission losses. He expects Vannata to win by second-round submission, noting Flowers has no chin and poor grappling.

Vannata by submission in round 2
"Give me Leonardo to win this fight by second round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Lando Vannata

Cody hesitantly picks Vannata, acknowledging his superior skills but concerns about a three-year layoff and injuries. He suggests waiting for weigh-ins and considers a submission prop.

submission +370
"I'm going to take Lando, but I'm taking a little Lando sub plus 370, which is available to me right now."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Lando Vannata

Connor also picks Vannata, noting that Flowers fights like a Vegas strip impersonation of Rampage Jackson with no footwork and is stiff and awkward. He points out that Flowers got undressed by Evan Elder and doesn't seem to like fighting. Vannata, despite his own issues, should win easily.

Vannata opened -170, now -210; Flowers opened +145, now +180.
"Flowers got undressed by Evan Elder though."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Mar 30, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Lando Vannata

James picks Lando Vannata, calling it a weird fight. He notes Vannata's superior striking and level of competition, but is unsure due to both fighters' inactivity. He predicts a spinning wheel kick knockout in round two when Flowers gasses. He expresses confusion about the matchup and low confidence.

Spinning wheel kick knockout in round 2 prediction
"I'll pick Lando Fanata here boys. I'll pick Vanata via spinning wheel kick finish."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 31, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Lando Vannata

The host expects Vannata to win, likely by finish in round 2 or 3, as Flowers has poor cardio and a tendency to fade. He notes Vannata's unorthodox striking and BJJ black belt, while Flowers gasses out and has been submitted before. He advises caution due to Vannata's three-year layoff but still picks him.

under 1.5 rounds at +175; under 2.5 rounds if line improves
"I expect Vanata to win. I don't mind the chalk on him just cuz I don't think Flowers is that good of a fighter... he should go out there and get the finish in round two or round …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Lando Vannata

Paul leans towards Vannata, noting Flowers' poor record and takedown defense. He expects Vannata to win if he uses wrestling, but is cautious due to the layoff.

"Lando's going to be the side for me because like I don't think I would ever bet Darius Flowers in the UFC against just about anybody."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2026 (fight day)
Lando Vannata

The MMA Guru picks Lando Vannata, recalling his past highlights like the wheel kick KO of John Makdessi. He believes Vannata's rangy striking and teeps will be effective against Darrius Flowers, who has been easily handled by Michael Johnson and Jake Matthews. He predicts a decision win.

Decision win predicted
"Lando Vannata is probably going to win this one. Close decision, 29-28."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Lando Vannata

Zane picks Vannata confidently despite his flaws, because Flowers is even worse. He describes Flowers as a Rampage Jackson impersonator with no footwork, stiff and awkward, who got undressed by Evan Elder. Vannata, though inconsistent and prone to bad habits, is still good enough to beat a low-level opponent like Flowers.

Vannata opened -170, now -210; Flowers opened +145, now +180.
"The thing is she's gonna beat Darius flowers. Yeah, that is the ultimate fucking tragedy, isn't it?"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Alice Pereira

Alice Pereira W

7-1
KO R2 4:24
Fight 10 VS Women's Bantamweight Completed

Alice Pereira

No odds available.

Hailey Cowan

No odds available.

Fighter Stats

Alice Pereira

Age20
Height5' 8"
Reach71"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Hailey Cowan

Age34
Height5' 8"
Reach67.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Career Averages - Alice Pereira

2.83SLpM
36.0%Str. Acc.
3.11SApM
66.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
75.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Hailey Cowan

2.66SLpM
43.0%Str. Acc.
2.92SApM
40.0%Str. Def.
1.95TD Avg
42.0%TD Acc.
80.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 29, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Alice Pereira

Angelo picks Alice Pereira, impressed by her striking and range management. He notes that Hailey Cowan relies on athleticism but lacks technical skills and hasn't improved. He believes Pereira will stay safe, manage range, and finally get her first UFC win. He is surprised the odds are close.

"We're picking Alice. I'm surprised these odds are staying this close."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Mar 30, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Hailey Cowan

Big Brady picks Hailey Cowan as an underdog. He is unimpressed with Alice Pereira, noting she fought in shopping malls and lost to Montserrat Rendon. He thinks Cowan is physically strong and can win by cage pushing and takedowns, possibly by decision. He believes the wrong fighter is favored.

Cowan by decision
"Give me Hailey Cowan to win this fight by decision with the cage pushing, with the takedowns."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Alice Pereira

Cody picks Pereira, citing her length, striking, and youth. He expects her to outwork Cowan on the feet and win a decision, as Cowan is older and less skilled.

"I'll go with Elise Pereira. I just She's a Yeah, she's much longer. I She's got a better striking acumen."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Apr 3, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Hailey Cowan

Connor leans toward Cowan, noting that Pereira has bad footwork and no grappling, and Cowan's wrestling could be effective. He mentions that if Pereira weren't so liable to be dragged out of the fight she needs, he might pick her, but Cowan's grinding style should work.

Cowan opened +120, now +110; Pereira opened -111, now -130.
"If Padilla wasn't so liable to be completely and immediately dragged out of the kind of fight she needs to have, I would probably consider picking her."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Mar 30, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Alice Pereira

James leans toward Alice Pereira, citing her youth, height, and striking power. He believes she can win on the feet, but acknowledges Cowan's wrestling advantage could lead to takedowns and control. He calls it an ugly fight and predicts a decision win for Pereira, but is not confident and passes on betting.

"I'm going to go with Alice Pereira here. Not confidently."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 31, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Alice Pereira

The host picks Pereira but with very low confidence, calling it a horrible fight. He notes Pereira's raw potential and recklessness, while Cowan is 0-2 in the UFC and relies on strength. He expects Pereira to land damage and win by decision, but warns against betting either fighter.

"I'm going to go Pira here and Pa by decision but very very low confidence."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Hailey Cowan

Paul leans towards Cowan or pass, noting Pereira's lack of experience and questionable UFC readiness. He thinks Cowan could win by clinch control and takedowns.

"For me it would be cowen or pass. I just don't know if I hate myself to lose money on this fight."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2026 (fight day)
Alice Pereira

The MMA Guru picks Alice Pereira despite her loss in her debut, noting she is only 20 years old with promise. He dismisses Hailey Cowan as a fighter who should not be in the UFC, implying Pereira's youth and potential outweigh Cowan's experience.

"I'm going to go Alice Pereira here, guys. Just accept that, AND WE'LL MOVE ON."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Apr 3, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Hailey Cowan

Zane picks Cowan reluctantly, noting that Cowan is big and strong and only wants to hold opponents down. He thinks Cowan's wrestling and size could neutralize Pereira, who has bad footwork and no grappling. However, he acknowledges Pereira could knock Cowan out with one shot, making it a low-confidence pick.

Cowan opened +120, now +110; Pereira opened -111, now -130.
"I'll take Haley Cowan. I don't like Haley Cowan but..."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Fight 11 VS Middleweight Completed
Tresean Gore

Tresean Gore W

7-4
Submission R3 3:27

Azamat Bekoev

No odds available.

Tresean Gore

No odds available.

Fighter Stats

Azamat Bekoev

Age30
Height6' 0"
Reach72.0"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Tresean Gore

Age31
Height6' 0"
Reach75.0"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Career Averages - Azamat Bekoev

4.57SLpM
52.0%Str. Acc.
6.83SApM
31.0%Str. Def.
3.48TD Avg
43.0%TD Acc.
62.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Tresean Gore

3.41SLpM
49.0%Str. Acc.
7.0SApM
40.0%Str. Def.
1.91TD Avg
72.0%TD Acc.
83.0%TD Def.
1.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (10)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock picked Mar 29, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Azamat Bekoev

Angelo is extremely confident in Azamat Bekoev, calling him a bargain at -550 and stating he should be -550,000. He notes Bekoev is well-rounded with powerful strikes and solid takedown defense, while Tresean Gore is inconsistent and has not proven himself at this level. Angelo believes Bekoev dominates everywhere and that Gore has no path to victory.

Angelo mentions the odds are -550 and says 'He should be minus550,000' and 'He dominates. Like this is not a close fight.'
"Azmat Bukoyv is minus550. He should be minus550,000."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Azamat Bekoev

Big Brady picks Azamat Bekoev by first-round knockout. He criticizes Tresean Gore's striking defense and notes he was knocked out by Cody Brundage and out-struck by Rodolfo Vieira. He expects Bekoev to knock out Gore rather than wrestle, as Gore has good takedown defense.

Bekoev by KO in round 1
"I got Bikov by first round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Azamat Bekoev

Cody picks Bekoev but warns against the -650 line, noting Bekoev's cardio issues and Gore's potential to survive early rounds. He expects Bekoev to win if he gets an early KO, but considers live betting Gore.

"I am going to take Boev. I just wanted to make note that at minus 650, he's not even on the top three lines."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Azamat Bekoev

Connor picks Bekoev confidently, emphasizing that Gore has no confidence or comfort, and panics under pressure. He notes that Bekoev's style of rushing into a tie-up and making the fight miserable will be effective, and that Bekoev is not at a size disadvantage. Gore's record and tendency to lose to anyone who pushes him make this an easy pick.

Bekoev opened -850, now -650; Gore opened +625, now +475.
"Bekoev is just like you should just be able to pull Trishon Gore out of his element anywhere."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked Apr 4, 2026 (fight day)
No clear pick

The host discusses the wide odds, noting Bekoev is a heavy favorite but unplayable due to poor value, while Gore is a tempting underdog but his recent poor performance against Vieira makes him too risky. He concludes that pre-fight betting is not viable, but he will watch for live betting opportunities.

Will watch for live betting opportunities.
"So, it's a bad stylistic match up for Gore. Beev obviously can can confuse Gore with the threat of his takedown. And Beckov is a reasonably technical striker, a much better striker than Ralpho Vieier in my opinion. …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Azamat Bekoev

James picks Azamat Bekoev, expecting him to rebound after a loss. He notes Bekoev's wrestling and training with Russian freestyle team, while Gore has been undisciplined and inconsistent. He predicts a decision win, but acknowledges Gore's power and weird fight outcomes make it uncertain. He believes Bekoev's takedowns and control will be the difference.

Decision win prediction
"Asamat Beco decision is my official prediction."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 31, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Azamat Bekoev

The host expects Bekoev to win, likely by decision, due to his grappling and improved striking. He notes Gore's takedown defense could make it close, but trusts Bekoev's ability to mix grappling and keep Gore defensive. He advises against betting the heavy chalk or sprinkling on Gore, preferring to pass.

"I still expect the Russian to get the job done here. I think he wins by decision, but the odds have me a little bit twisted."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Azamat Bekoev

Paul leans towards Bekoev but is wary of the price. He notes Bekoev's power and wrestling defense, but thinks Gore could make it competitive if he survives the first round.

"I ain't bet no minus 650 but go is all I'm saying."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2026 (fight day)
Azamat Bekoev

The MMA Guru confidently picks Azamat Bekoev, criticizing Tresean Gore's 6-4 record and questioning why he's still in the UFC. He believes Bekoev's grappling and striking are superior and predicts a TKO finish as Gore lowers his hands after defending takedowns.

TKO finish predicted
"Beko is ever going to win. And he's going to defeat Trae Shawn Gholar. By TKO maybe."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Azamat Bekoev

Zane picks Bekoev confidently, noting that Bekoev is a dangerous front-foot fighter with strong wrestling and ground-and-pound. He contrasts Gore, who panics and gets overwhelmed when dragged into deep water. Bekoev is more technical and well-rounded, and at 20-4 against a 5-4 fighter, the pick is clear.

Bekoev opened -850, now -650; Gore opened +625, now +475.
"You just have to take back. Oh have absolutely. Yeah."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Dione Barbosa

Dione Barbosa W

9-4
Decision R3 5:00
Fight 12 VS Women's Flyweight Completed

Dione Barbosa

No odds available.

Melissa Gatto

No odds available.

Fighter Stats

Dione Barbosa

Age34
Height5' 6"
Reach66.0"
Weight125 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Melissa Gatto

Age30
Height5' 5"
Reach69.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Dione Barbosa

2.21SLpM
45.0%Str. Acc.
2.4SApM
64.0%Str. Def.
2.4TD Avg
44.0%TD Acc.
63.0%TD Def.
1.7Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Melissa Gatto

3.47SLpM
49.0%Str. Acc.
2.67SApM
54.0%Str. Def.
1.77TD Avg
27.0%TD Acc.
58.0%TD Def.
0.4Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 29, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Dione Barbosa

Angelo picks Dione Barbosa, citing her superior takedown ability as a judoka. He notes that Melissa Gatto has poor takedowns and that Barbosa can close the distance, take her down, and control on top. He worries about potential judging bias similar to Barbosa's last loss but believes Barbosa will win a close decision.

"Dion Barbosa is going to be the pick. We probably end up in a 2928 type situation."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Mar 30, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

Big Brady picks Melissa Gatto as a slight underdog. He notes Barbosa has power and can get takedowns early, but fades as the fight goes on. He likes Gatto's cardio, volume, and kicks, and expects her to take over in later rounds. He predicts a close decision win for Gatto.

Gatto by decision
"I'll take Gatto here. I like the cardio, I like the kicks, I like the volume."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

Cody picks Gatto, citing her youth, improved skills, and ability to scramble and strike. He expects her to win a decision, as Barbosa's grappling-heavy style may not score well.

"It's got by decision for me."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Apr 3, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Dione Barbosa

Connor leans toward Barbosa, agreeing that she is more disciplined. He notes that Gatto's footwork is worse and she tends to collapse when pressured, leading her to wrestle. Barbosa is as big as Gatto and a better grappler, which should neutralize Gatto's advantages.

Barbosa opened +105, now -127; Gatto opened -125, now +107.
"Barboza actually has some a little bit of boxing footwork... Gatto just doesn't know how to like keep herself lined up."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Mar 30, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

James leans toward Melissa Gatto as the underdog, citing her striking kicks and cardio advantage, while noting Barbosa's tendency to tire. He admits he hasn't done tape study and is unsure about the grappling dynamics. He predicts a decision win for Gatto but emphasizes low confidence and the need for further analysis.

"I'll say Melissa Gate. She's the underdog. I lean to the underdog in a fight like this where I think it's very close."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 31, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

The host picks Gatto as a dog, citing her damage-based striking and grappling advantage. He notes Barbosa's recent loss where control wasn't enough, and trusts Gatto's volume and damage to win on the scorecards despite a two-year layoff. He sees a good stylistic matchup for Gatto.

"I feel like Gateau is the perfect dog to start off this card."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

Paul leans towards Gatto, noting her two-year layoff may have helped her improve. He expects her to win a close decision due to her striking and scrambling.

"I do have Melissa God. I think Melissa is a decent fighter."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Apr 4, 2026 (fight day)
Dione Barbosa

The MMA Guru picks Dione Barbosa but seems hesitant, acknowledging that her win over Diana Belbita isn't impressive. He notes that Melissa Gatto has a body kick KO win but lost to Tracy Cortez. He thinks Barbosa is slightly more well-rounded but doesn't sound fully convinced.

"I think she'll win this one, though. I think she'll beat Melissa Gatto, okay? Don't grill me on it."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Apr 3, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Dione Barbosa

Zane leans toward Barbosa, noting she is more disciplined and has better footwork. He thinks Gatto has good tools but doesn't stick to them, and tends to win when opponents make catastrophic mistakes. Barbosa's boxing footwork and grappling should allow her to keep the fight in her favor.

Barbosa opened +105, now -127; Gatto opened -125, now +107.
"I'm tempted to pick Barboza. I think she's a little more... she's just a more disciplined fighter."
Fight Notes
BR
brian 1 month, 4 weeks ago

both good, strange fight with the illegal strike,,, happy to pick either by finish in the future. Dione was on point. Tried an arm bar. Gatto good distance striking but was broken down by Dione everywhere. Good jiu jitsu from both. Steroid use from Gatto???

Kai Kamaka III

Kai Kamaka III W

18-7-1
Decision R3 5:00
Fight 13 VS Lightweight Completed

Kai Kamaka III

No odds available.

Dakota Hope

No odds available.

Fighter Stats

Kai Kamaka III

Age31
Height5' 7"
Reach69"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Dakota Hope

Age29
Height5' 6"
Reach68"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceN/A

Career Averages - Kai Kamaka III

5.4SLpM
59.0%Str. Acc.
5.67SApM
56.0%Str. Def.
1.51TD Avg
53.0%TD Acc.
55.0%TD Def.
0.2Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Dakota Hope

7.07SLpM
41.0%Str. Acc.
7.0SApM
33.0%Str. Def.
1.0TD Avg
33.0%TD Acc.
100.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (5)
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Kai Kamaka III

Cody picks Kamaka, citing his experience and ability to win close decisions. He expects Kamaka's striking and takedown defense to edge out Hope, who may gas due to his explosive style.

"So for me it's Kai Kamaka in this one."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Kai Kamaka III

Connor picks Kamaka, noting that Hope is aimless and doesn't build attacks. He expects Kamaka to make the fight harder than necessary but still win. Kamaka's experience and short-notice readiness are advantages, though he acknowledges Kamaka can get trapped into weird fights.

Kamaka opened -190, now -155; Hope opened +165, now +135. Short notice favors Kamaka.
"Kai kamaka is likely to go out there and get a finish always has been."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Dakota Hope

Paul leans towards Hope, noting his physicality and wrestling. He expects Hope to take Kamaka down and control him, though he acknowledges Kamaka's experience.

"I think Dakota Hope's a guy heading in the right direction and he's got a path to victory that could work for him here. So hope for me as a small underdog will be you."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2026 (fight day)
Kai Kamaka III

The MMA Guru picks Kai Kamaka III, citing his experience as a crafty veteran who has fought tough competition like Brendan Loughnane and Bubba Jenkins. He dismisses Dakota Hope's record as padded against lesser opponents and notes that Hope lost to a 9-7 fighter. He believes Kamaka's veteran savvy will be the difference.

"I think Kaik Kamaka's going to be a crafty vet out there... I'm going with Kaik Kamaka the third getting this one done."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Kai Kamaka III

Zane picks Kamaka confidently, noting that Kamaka is a more experienced professional who is likely to be ready on short notice. He sees Hope as a good athlete but without much MMA game, aimless and one-and-done as a striker. Kamaka's front-foot pressure and wrestling should overwhelm Hope.

Kamaka opened -190, now -155; Hope opened +165, now +135. Short notice favors Kamaka.
"I got it. Hey kai kamaka here. Yeah, I think so."
Fight Notes
BR
brian 1 month, 4 weeks ago

Dakota brawls and uses anaerobic gas.. Kai doesnt hit hard but does stalk