Charles Johnson

AJ picks Almabayev by decision, expecting his elite wrestling and positional control to neutralize Johnson's striking. Johnson is inconsistent and has been outwrestled before. Almabayev should land multiple takedowns and control the fight on the ground.

Angelo picks Asu because Charles Johnson tends to take rounds off and fights on the outside, which won't score well with judges overseas. He notes that Asu looked bad in his last fight but that was due to Alex Perez's pressure, which Charles doesn't replicate. He is rooting for Charles but thinks Asu will get the win.

Big Brady picks Asu Almabayev to win by decision. He notes Charles Johnson's grappling vulnerability, having been taken down 11 times by Cody Durden and controlled by Raphael Assuncao. Almabayev is a much better grappler with three-round cardio. Brady expects Almabayev to take Johnson down and control him for a decision win, though he acknowledges Johnson can knock out anyone on his best day.

Cody picks Johnson, agreeing with Paul. He highlights Johnson's reach and height advantages, better striking, and improved takedown defense. He sees Almabayev as low-volume and one-dimensional, and believes Johnson's plus-money price is a value spot.

Daniel Levi confidently picks Asu Almabayev, criticizing Charles Johnson's ego and recent performances. He believes Johnson's wins over Josh Van and Looney Kavanaugh were flukes and that he is on a decline, citing his knockout loss to Alex Perez. Levi praises Almabayev's relentless pressure and heart, expecting him to push a pace and win two rounds, with Johnson likely complaining afterward.

Jacob picks Almabayev, citing his grappling pressure and Johnson's tendency to engage in whatever fight style is presented. He thinks Johnson will spend too time grappling with Almabayev and eventually lose a decision. He expects Almabayev to get multiple takedowns.

Lucrative James picks Asu Almabayev because he believes Almabayev is an elite wrestler who can take Charles Johnson down consistently, exploiting Johnson's weakness against wrestlers. He notes that Johnson has struggled against grapplers like Cody Durden and Muhammad Mokaev, and that Almabayev has a short flight to Azerbaijan while Johnson travels from America. He predicts a competitive fight but expects Almabayev to win via decision, possibly hurting Johnson on the feet as well.

Almabayev's ability to mix takedowns with striking should get him the win, but Johnson's defensive grappling and ability to get back to his feet will keep it close. The line is too wide; passing on the fight unless Almabayev drops to -150.

Paul picks Johnson as a plus-money underdog, citing his improved takedown defense, striking advantage, and size. He notes Almabayev's one-dimensional wrestling and low volume, and believes Johnson's damage output will win rounds. He sees value at plus money.

Angelo picks Charles Johnson but admits nervousness due to Bruno Silva's one-punch knockout power. He notes Johnson's excellent footwork, hand speed, and cardio, and believes if Johnson gets going early, he can avoid the big shot and win a decision. He acknowledges Johnson has been knocked out before but thinks his high IQ will prevail.

Big Brady picks Charles Johnson to win by third-round knockout, but expresses wariness due to Johnson's recent knockout loss and chin concerns. He likes the stylistic matchup, noting Silva's front-loaded power and tendency to fade, but worries Johnson might get knocked out early. He calls Johnson inconsistent.

Cody picks Bruno Silva as a dog, citing his wrestling, power, and durability. He notes Johnson's takedown defense issues and recent knockout loss. He thinks Silva can win by decision or submission.

Connor also picks Charles Johnson, emphasizing that Bruno Silva lacks the ability to adjust strategically, while Johnson can figure out his opponent as the fight progresses. He notes that Silva's wins come from opponents making the same mistakes, which Johnson does not do. Connor sees Johnson's adaptability as the key factor.

James picks Charles Johnson to win by decision, but expresses concern about Johnson's quick return after a knockout loss. He notes Johnson's superior cardio, volume, and tools, but worries about his durability and potential recklessness. He believes Johnson is the better fighter overall but is uncertain how he will approach the fight.

The host picks Johnson to win by decision, expecting him to outclass Silva on the feet. He highlights Johnson's reach advantage, defensive grappling, and ability to get back to his feet quickly. He believes Johnson's striking will be too much for Silva, and that Silva's power and grappling won't be enough to overcome Johnson's technical edge.

Paul picks Bruno Silva, noting he bets him every fight. He likes his wrestling and power, and thinks he can outgrapple Johnson. He expects a close fight but Silva has value at plus money.

The Guru picks Charles Johnson, believing he will walk down Bruno Silva as the fight progresses. He notes Johnson's size advantage (5'9" vs 5'4") and reach, and that Silva fights in bursts and lacks consistent finishing ability. He predicts a TKO in the second round.

Angelo picks Alex Perez despite his four-fight losing streak, arguing the losses are to elite fighters and he was winning against Asu Almabaev before a mistake. He praises Perez's striking, low kicks, and wrestling. He notes Charles Johnson is a friend of the show but believes Perez can pull off the upset. He is very low confidence, rating it 51 out of 100.

Big Brady notes Perez finds ways to lose, often getting finished when he's winning. He expects Perez to win round one but fade as Johnson works into the fight. He predicts Johnson will finish Perez, likely by submission, as Perez has been submitted many times.

Cody picks Charles Johnson, citing Perez's poor cardio and tendency to make mistakes. He notes Johnson's improved takedown defense and striking volume, and believes Johnson will win the later rounds. Cody sees Johnson as a live underdog and expects him to win by decision or late stoppage.

Connor questions whether Alex Perez is actually a good flyweight, noting his record of 1 win in 6 fights over 5 years. He sees Perez as a bully on the front foot who lacks durability and defensive striking. Johnson, on the other hand, is clicking better, finding his timing earlier, and has a persistent, awkward style that can frustrate opponents. Connor believes Johnson can survive Perez's hot start and take over, possibly getting a finish.

Daniel Vreeland picks Charles Johnson to finish Alex Perez. He notes that Perez has lost five of his last six and has questionable heart and fight IQ. Vreeland believes Johnson's slow-starting style matches up well against Perez, who tends to fade. He predicts Johnson will find the chin or neck of Perez for a finish.

James picks Johnson, citing his superior striking, cardio, and durability. He notes Perez often gets finished and that Johnson is more locked into MMA. He predicts a finish, possibly by submission or knockout.

The host picks Perez as an underdog, citing his forward pressure, leg kicks, and gas tank. He believes Perez can dictate the pace and outwork Johnson, who can be gunshy. He notes Perez's recent losses are to high-level competition and sees value at +175. He predicts Perez by decision or knockout.

Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing Johnson's improvements and Perez's bad luck. He notes Johnson's knockout power and volume, and believes Perez's cardio will fail him. Paul likes Johnson on the money line and also considers the knockout prop.

The MMA Guru picks Charles Johnson, citing his win over Joshua Van and his range advantage. He notes that Johnson's uppercut game will be effective against Perez's head-tucking hooks. He predicts a close decision, possibly with Perez having a good third round.

Angelo picks Lone'er Kavanagh but is hesitant, noting that Charles Johnson is a friend of the show and a good fighter. He praises Kavanagh's speed, power, and ability to transition to wrestling instantly. He thinks the odds are too wide and that Johnson is not a 2-to-1 underdog. He says he'll be rooting for Johnson but thinks Kavanagh probably gets it done due to speed and volume.

Big Brady picks Lone'er Kavanagh to win a close decision, noting that Kavanagh is a real prospect with power and takedown ability. He criticizes Charles Johnson for consistently losing first rounds and being takedown-prone. He believes Kavanagh will win rounds one and two, while Johnson may take round three, leading to a decision for Kavanagh.

Connor picks Kavanagh largely on vibes, citing Kavanagh's ability to understand what wins rounds and his good footwork. He notes that Kavanagh is an impactful kicker and can neutralize opponents, and that Johnson may lose track of the fight in a slow-paced bout. However, he acknowledges the matchup is close and could go either way.

The host notes that Kavanagh is usually at super chalky odds but here at -180, it's a great entry point. He thinks Johnson may not have the power to get Kavanagh's respect, and while Johnson may have an advantage in output and volume, Kavanagh should mix martial arts well with power strikes, speed, and takedowns to win on the scorecards.

The MMA Guru picks Charles Johnson to win by decision as an underdog (+170). He believes Johnson's experience and ability to survive and push the pace will be key. He notes that Kavanagh struggled in close fights against Jose Ochoa and Felipe dos Santos, and that Johnson is hard to outgrapple effectively. He expects Johnson to have a strong third round and win a close decision, though he acknowledges Kavanagh could land a knockout.

Angelo slightly leans towards Ramazan Temirov, citing his power and the judges' tendency to favor damage over clean technique. He acknowledges that Charles Johnson is more technical and could win a decision if he fights perfectly, but believes Temirov's power and aggression might sway the judges. He does not bet on this fight due to its razor-thin nature.

Big Brady picks Charles Johnson, citing his superior experience, cardio, and output. He notes that Ramazan Temirov relies on power shots but flyweight knockouts are rare, and Johnson has never been finished. He expects Johnson to win by decision, and even made a bet that if Johnson wins, he'll buy a 'Scallet Gang' t-shirt.

The host believes Temirov is a future title contender and will showcase his potential this weekend. He highlights Temirov's footwork, angle cutting, and explosive approach in the pocket, expecting his power shots to be more impactful. He predicts a knockout within the first two rounds.

Angelo is very confident in Charles Johnson, citing his high output, technical striking, and ability to maintain pace for 15 minutes. He notes Sumudaerji's takedown defense is untested (only one takedown attempt in UFC) and that Johnson has survived tough moments before. He expects Johnson to pressure forward, be the cleaner striker, and take over as the fight goes on. He also mentions Johnson's activity and recent success.

Big Brady picks Charles Johnson by second-round submission. He highlights Sumudaerji's poor takedown defense and six submission losses. Johnson has good wrestling and submission attempts, though no UFC submission wins. He warns that if Johnson strikes, it's a different fight, but expects him to mix in takedowns and submit Sumudaerji.

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Johnson as a craftsman who should handle Sumudaerji's straightforward style. He notes that Sumudaerji lacks footwork to be a true sniper and that Johnson is durable and calculating. He expects Johnson to get on his front foot and take over in round two.

This fight was not discussed in the transcript.

Both are strikers, but Johnson has a better gas tank, better discipline striking, and good enough footwork and defensive striking to stay away from Sumudaerji's power. Johnson will chip away and win by decision or get a late finish.

The Guru picks Charles Johnson despite not liking him personally, citing Johnson's recent momentum and wins over Joshua Van and Jake Hadley. He criticizes Sumudaerji's lack of power and relevant wins, noting he was dominated by Tim Elliott and struggled against Matt Schnell. He believes Johnson can take the fight to the ground if needed and predicts a later-rounds finish.

Angelo picks Charles Johnson as an underdog, citing his experience against higher-level competition and short-notice adaptability. He acknowledges Joshua Van's power and prospect status but believes Johnson's veteran savvy and awkward style could frustrate Van. Angelo has a small bet ($25, quarter unit) on Johnson at +170 and mentions a potential plus 3.5 round bet as a safer alternative.

Cody picks Van, citing his youth, volume, and cardio. He notes Van's slow starts but believes his pace will overwhelm Johnson, who tends to fade. He expects Van to win by decision or late finish.

Daniel Vreeland picks Charles Johnson to win a close decision. He notes that Johnson is a veteran who has been in tough battles and has prepared well for the altitude. He acknowledges Van's talent but thinks Van may face a roadblock. He likes the plus 180 underdog value and expects a split decision type fight.

Joshua Van's style is more reliable with consistent output. Despite a height and reach disadvantage, Van will crash the pocket and land body shots, setting up his striking game. The minus 200 line is a bit wide, but Van should win on the scorecards.

Angelo leans towards Jake Hadley because he cannot trust Charles Johnson's one phenomenal showing over several mediocre ones. He notes Hadley has good takedowns and BJJ, though his takedown accuracy is low due to bailing on attempts. He acknowledges that if the version of Johnson that beat Azat Maksum shows up, he wins, but that version has only appeared once.

Big Brady picks Charles Johnson, citing the hometown advantage in St. Louis and the possibility that Johnson can do enough on the feet while mixing in takedowns. He notes that Johnson has been taken down in every UFC fight but that Hadley has zero takedowns in the UFC, so the fight likely stays standing. He is not confident because Johnson can be low volume and hesitant, but if the version that fought Maxim shows up, he can win. He expects a decision and thinks the hometown rub could help Johnson in a close fight.

Cody picks Johnson as a confident underdog. He argues that Hadley is overhyped, with poor cardio, weak striking, and a questionable chin. Johnson has excellent get-up game, having been taken down many times but always getting back up. He also has superior boxing and volume. Cody believes Johnson can stuff takedowns or get up quickly, and outwork Hadley on the feet. He notes that Hadley has looked bad against wrestlers and grapplers, and Johnson is a tough veteran.

Daniel Vreeland picks Charles Johnson, noting that the fighters who beat Johnson are relentless wrestlers, which Hadley is not. He believes Johnson's cardio and volume will be key, and that Hadley's weight cut (walking around 160 lbs) will be a factor. He predicts a unanimous decision win for Johnson.

Paul picks Johnson, echoing Cody's reasoning. He notes that Johnson showed improved takedown defense in his last fight and has never been submitted. Hadley's cardio and striking are suspect, and Johnson's volume should win rounds. Paul thinks Johnson's get-up game and durability will be key. He is confident in the underdog.

Angelo picks Azat Maksum but advises caution. He notes that Maksum's wrestling looked poor in his last fight (2 for 11 takedowns) but attributes it to debut jitters. He believes Maksum will need to take Johnson down to win, as Johnson is superior in volume striking. He does not bet on this fight.

Big Brady picks Azat Maksum to win by decision. He notes that Maksum is a good wrestler and grappler, while Charles Johnson has terrible takedown defense and has been taken down nearly 30 times in seven UFC fights. He believes this is a stylistic nightmare for Johnson, who has never been finished (all six losses by decision). Brady also thinks the judges will favor the undefeated fighter in a close fight.

Cody picks Maksum, citing Johnson's poor takedown defense and Maksum's chain wrestling. He notes Johnson's short-notice fights and Apex struggles, while Maksum showed grit against Nam. He expects Maksum to dominate with wrestling and win by decision or submission.

Maksum should show a better version of himself after his debut, utilizing his striking to set up takedowns. Johnson is on a three-fight losing streak and has issues with output and being controlled against the cage. Maksum's wrestling and pressure should earn him a decision win.

Paul picks Maksum, agreeing with Cody. He notes Johnson's takedown defense issues and the Apex favoring grapplers. He thinks Maksum's wrestling and improved comfort in his second UFC fight will be too much for Johnson.

Angelo picks Rafael Estevam with low confidence, citing Charles Johnson's recent lack of urgency and tendency to not do enough to impress judges. He notes Estevam's high-pressure grappling and relentless takedown attempts, though his takedowns are sloppy. He expects a decision and thinks Estevam will edge it.

Big Brady thinks people overrate Charles Johnson, noting he's been taken down frequently by wrestlers like Cody Durden and Mohammad Kayev. He believes Estevam is a solid wrestler who will stick to Johnson like glue and grind out a decision. However, he acknowledges this is Estevam's toughest fight by far and the decision could be close due to damage vs control arguments. He's staying away from betting on this fight.

Cody picks Rafael Estevam, citing his wrestling and takedown ability. He notes that Charles Johnson gives up takedowns frequently. Estevam can chain wrestle and control Johnson. Cody also mentions a PrizePicks play on Estevam over 2.5 takedowns.

Estevam has the grappling advantage and cardio edge to control the fight. He will dictate the pace with relentless grappling and clinch control, neutralizing Johnson's volume striking. Estevam's takedown defense and get-ups are solid, but he gets pinned in bad spots. Estevam wins by decision, as he lacks finishing ability but can outwork Johnson.

Paul initially leans towards Estevam but switches to Charles Johnson as an underdog. He notes Johnson's excellent get-up game and cardio advantage. Paul thinks if Estevam's debut nerves or weight cut issues arise, Johnson can out-strike him. He admits it's a risky pick and will wait for weigh-ins.

Cody picks Durden, having taken him at +170 earlier. He believes Durden's wrestling and pressure will be effective against Johnson, who gives up takedowns. He notes that Johnson's cardio may be compromised due to fighting frequently, and that Durden can grind out a win. He thinks the current +120 is fair but not great value.

Connor also leans Johnson, citing Johnson's ability to adjust and finish strong, as seen against Osborne. He notes that Durden's takedowns may not work against Johnson's excellent takedown defense, and without that threat, Durden's boxing is limited. Connor sees a pattern where Johnson loses round one but comes back to win rounds two and three.

Paul picks Johnson but is hesitant, acknowledging that Durden's wrestling could be a problem. He notes Johnson's superior striking and volume, and hopes judges favor damage over control time. However, he is concerned about Johnson's activity level and potential fatigue, and admits he might get burned.

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Johnson. He highlights that Johnson has become a more aggressive fighter since his loss to Muhammad Mokaev, and that Osbourne is a tricky but fragile fighter who often loses by getting knocked out. He notes that Johnson is a big flyweight with good range and durability, and that Osbourne's style of gambling with strikes makes him vulnerable.

Angelo picks Johnson, citing his well-roundedness and cardio. He thinks Flick's two-year layoff will be a factor and Johnson's takedown defense and boxing will prevail. He notes Johnson's power and pressure, but acknowledges Flick's submission threat. He considers -305 appropriate.

Big Brady picks Charles Johnson confidently, citing Johnson's takedown defense shown against Muhammad Mokaev and his striking advantage. He notes that Jimmy Flick is a submission specialist but struggles to get fights to the mat, and if he can't, he fades after the first round. He believes Johnson will keep the fight standing and finish Flick by knockout in the second round, as Flick has been knocked out before.

Cody picks Johnson, citing his submission defense and cardio. He notes Flick's poor chin and tendency to fade after the first round. He expects Johnson to survive early submission attempts and win by TKO in rounds 2 or 3. He likes Johnson by TKO props.

Connor also picks Johnson, agreeing that Johnson has built-in advantages and is hard to outgrapple. However, he is not confident it will be decisive and notes that Flick could pull off a submission. Connor emphasizes that Johnson's passivity is a concern and that Flick's weird grappling could create opportunities.

Jacob picks Flick as an underdog, citing Johnson's overconfidence and potential grappling vulnerability. He notes Johnson's close fight with Zalgas and his cocky attitude. He thinks Flick's submission threat and layoff could lead to a surprise. He is not betting the moneyline but has bets on Flick for premium members.

Paul picks Flick as a value underdog, having bet him at +385 and +420. He notes Johnson's poor takedown defense and believes Flick's submission game can cause problems. He acknowledges the line has corrected and sees it as a hedge play.

Angelo picks Mokaev due to his dominant wrestling, but warns not to sleep on Charles Johnson who has solid submission defense and a fearless attitude. He notes Johnson will likely get taken down but is confident in his get-up game and will throw strikes. He says Mokaev's wrestling will likely be too much and he may include him in parlays.

Big Brady picks Muhammad Mokaev to win by decision. He notes the UFC is building up Mokaev, but Charles Johnson is not a bum; he has good chin and takedown defense. However, Mokaev should get the fight to the mat and control Johnson. He doesn't see a finish due to Johnson's toughness.

Cody leans towards Muhammad Mokaev but is not confident. He notes Mokaev is a bright prospect but still green. Cody thinks Johnson is durable and experienced, but Mokaev's wrestling could be the difference. He likes Mokaev over 2 takedowns on PrizePicks. Cody is not set in stone and may flip closer to fight time.

Daniel Levi leans towards Muhammad Mokaev, citing his impressive grappling and the way he handled Cody Durden. He acknowledges that Charles Johnson has good cardio and went the distance with Brandon Royval, but believes Mokaev's grappling edge will be decisive. Levi is not fully convicted because Mokaev hasn't fought anyone besides Durden, while Johnson has more experience.

Johnson is not a +370 dog; he should be closer to +150. He is the better striker, has good scrambling, and can stop takedowns. Mokaev's hype is overblown. Johnson will make this competitive and likely win. I'll likely lock in this bet after the stream.

Paul picks Charles Johnson at +375, calling it a dogger pass. He notes Johnson is experienced and well-rounded, and if the fight stays standing, it could be interesting. Paul is scared to lay -500 on Mokaev. He learned his lesson from betting against Mokaev last time and is passing on betting.