Carlos Candelario

"The Cannon"
0-2
Record
Age / DOB 35
(Jun 04, 1991)
Height 5' 8"
Weight 125 lbs.
Reach 68.0"
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages
3.97 Sig. Strikes / Min
46.0% Sig. Strike Acc.
5.17 Absorbed / Min
44.0% Strike Defense
2.28 TD Avg / 15 min
36.0% TD Accuracy
53.0% TD Defense
0.3 Sub. / Fight
Loss Methods (2)
KO/TKO 0
Submission 1
Decision 1

Fight History

Result / Opponent
Event & Date
Method/Round
Links
Comments
Submission (triangle choke) R2 2:39
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jake Hadley 0 69 of 148 46% 69 of 148 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:39
Carlos Candelario 0 90 of 169 53% 107 of 188 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jake Hadley 0 58 of 123 47% 58 of 123 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carlos Candelario 0 50 of 116 43% 50 of 116 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jake Hadley 0 11 of 25 44% 11 of 25 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:39
Carlos Candelario 0 40 of 53 75% 57 of 72 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jake Hadley 69 of 148 46% 31 of 100 22 of 31 16 of 17 67 of 146 2 of 2 0 of 0
Carlos Candelario 90 of 169 53% 45 of 118 24 of 30 21 of 21 65 of 142 2 of 3 23 of 24
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jake Hadley 58 of 123 47% 26 of 83 17 of 24 15 of 16 57 of 122 1 of 1 0 of 0
Carlos Candelario 50 of 116 43% 15 of 76 19 of 24 16 of 16 50 of 115 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Jake Hadley 11 of 25 44% 5 of 17 5 of 7 1 of 1 10 of 24 1 of 1 0 of 0
Carlos Candelario 40 of 53 75% 30 of 42 5 of 6 5 of 5 15 of 27 2 of 2 23 of 24
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Jake Hadley

Angelo picks Jake Hadley, calling him the cleaner, more technical fighter with solid boxing, takedowns, and BJJ. He notes Candelario is gritty and a dog, but hasn't been the same since a four-year layoff. He warns that if Hadley gets sucked into a scrap, he could have trouble, but overall likes Hadley to get it done.

"I like Jake to get it done he's definitely the pick but if Carlos comes out looking like he did in 2017 he's going to be where the smart money goes"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 1, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jake Hadley

Big Brady views this as a tailor-made matchup for Hadley, citing Candelario's historically poor takedown defense. He believes Hadley's wrestling and grappling will dominate, and he can grind out a decision. The only concern is Hadley's UFC debut where he failed to take down Nascimento, but Candelario's takedown defense is much worse. He expects Hadley to dictate where the fight takes place and win by decision.

Hadley wins by decision
"I think this is a tailor-made matchup for for Jake Hadley here and I think the UFC is really trying to push this guy"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Candelario

Cody picks Carlos Candelario as an underdog. He notes that Candelario has good defensive grappling, surviving against high-level BJJ guys like Ronald Candido and Tatsuya Taira. He thinks Candelario has better volume and offensive wrestling, as seen against Victor Altamirano (5 takedowns). Hadley has shown poor grappling off his back, getting taken down by Alan Nascimento and unable to get up. Cody thinks Candelario can take Hadley down and grind him out, but acknowledges Hadley may be stronger. He is leaning towards Candelario but not fully locked in.

"candelario the dogs are barking this week Cody or at least I hope they do uh candelario for me"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Candelario

Connor agrees, noting that Candelario is difficult to submit and control, and his aggressive style will force mistakes from Hadley. Hadley's guard game is unlikely to succeed at flyweight, and Candelario's cardio and scrambling should win out. Connor acknowledges Hadley could win if he improves, but needs to see it first.

"I'm with you. I don't like it. I do like Candelario."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Nov 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jake Hadley

Daniel Levi leans Jake Hadley, noting he may be more physically imposing and should scrape by. He acknowledges Candelario's toughness but sees Hadley as the better fighter. He is not interested in laying -255 on him.

"I'm a lean Hadley uh just not interested laying a price like that on him"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Oct 31, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jake Hadley

The host likes Hadley's offensive grappling but is cautious about the wide line (-275). He notes Hadley struggled against opponents who could contend on the ground, and Candelario showed good submission defense in his last fight. He expects Hadley to control the fight via grappling but likely go to decision, as Candelario may survive submission attempts. He prefers to wait for over/under totals rather than play the moneyline.

Over 1.5 or 2.5 rounds if at decent price; Hadley by decision
"I do like Jake Hadley here I think the line is just a little bit too wide"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Candelario

Paul picks Candelario and has already bet him at +225. He notes that Hadley got exposed against Nascimento, who negated his grappling. Candelario has proven he can survive on the ground and has better striking volume. Paul thinks Candelario's offensive wrestling could be key, as he scored takedowns against Taira. He sees Candelario as a live underdog.

"Carlos candelario money line plus 225 I'm taking the shot there"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jake Hadley

The MMA Guru picks Jake Hadley, noting he is a 3-to-1 favorite with 92% of tapology picks. He believes Hadley should beat Candelario if he initiates grappling early rather than striking. He criticizes Candelario's performance against Tatsuro Taira and notes Hadley's strong competition outside the UFC. He predicts a submission win in the second round, but disagrees with the wide odds, suggesting Candelario is not bad.

submission in round 2; odds gap too wide
"I'm gonna go with Jake Hadley getting this one done I think he'll be able if he goes first with the grappling... I'll say in the second round weirdly strong in those possessions."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Candelario

Zane picks Candelario because Hadley showed poor takedown defense in his debut, easily giving up takedowns and playing guard, which is disastrous at flyweight. Candelario is aggressive, hard to submit, and will push a high pace over three rounds. Hadley's willingness to fight off his back is a major liability.

"I think I'm going to pick Carlos Candelario."
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tatsuro Taira 1 57 of 87 65% 89 of 132 1 of 5 20% 3 2 6:57
Carlos Candelario 0 9 of 34 26% 21 of 47 2 of 5 40% 1 3 3:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tatsuro Taira 0 13 of 24 54% 15 of 27 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:45
Carlos Candelario 0 5 of 24 20% 10 of 29 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:44
2 Tatsuro Taira 1 15 of 19 78% 31 of 40 0 of 0 --- 1 1 3:13
Carlos Candelario 0 4 of 6 66% 11 of 14 0 of 1 0% 0 2 1:16
3 Tatsuro Taira 0 29 of 44 65% 43 of 65 0 of 0 --- 2 1 2:59
Carlos Candelario 0 0 of 4 0% 0 of 4 1 of 1 100% 1 1 1:28
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tatsuro Taira 57 of 87 65% 45 of 74 5 of 6 7 of 7 15 of 30 2 of 2 40 of 55
Carlos Candelario 9 of 34 26% 6 of 27 3 of 6 0 of 1 9 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tatsuro Taira 13 of 24 54% 3 of 13 3 of 4 7 of 7 13 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Candelario 5 of 24 20% 4 of 19 1 of 4 0 of 1 5 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Tatsuro Taira 15 of 19 78% 14 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 4 2 of 2 11 of 13
Carlos Candelario 4 of 6 66% 2 of 4 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Tatsuro Taira 29 of 44 65% 28 of 43 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 29 of 42
Carlos Candelario 0 of 4 0% 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Carlos Candelario (126.5: Missed Weight) vs. Tatsuro Taira
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Taira (-240), Candelario (+195)

Round 1
Two weeks after we thought we would see it, we will kick this fight card off with a bout between promotional newcomers, when Japanese hotshot Taira (10-0, 0-0 UFC) battles it out with the Stephan Bonnar of Dana White’s Contender Series in Candelario (8-1, 0-0 UFC) – the latter earned a contract off of a thrilling defeat, much like how Bonnar still pocketed the contract at the end of TUF 1 due to his legendary scrap with Forrest Griffin. Even with two men making their UFC debuts, it could be a fun one to start things off. Candelario did miss weight, coming in half a pound heavy at 126.5 pounds, and it plays a factor as they do not touch gloves while referee Mike Beltran watches on. Candelario crashes in straight away to clinch up and pursue a possible takedown, but Taira shoves his man away to gain some space and look for something on the feet. Taira absorbs a solid overhand right, and he keeps his guard up while Candelario strings a few punches together. Taira turns the momentum of his opponent against him, tying Candelario up and hunting for a trip takedown. The Japanese fighter trips his man to a knee, but Candelario is able to power up and out. As he looks to break, Taira scores a left hand and a body kick. Candelario gathers himself and dives forward for a single, and Taira pushes him off again where he can work with his kicks. A leg kick scores, but a body kick is blocked from the unbeaten fighter, and he uses his own range-finding strikes to keep Candelario and an increasingly reddening nose at bay. Taira steps forward with a right hand down the pipe, staggering Candelario for a second but not backing him off, as Candelario comes back quickly with a head kick that is swatted away. Taira marks up the body with a kick, and Candelario just misses with a counter. Taira kicks high, and his counters fall short. Taira shoots in from an unorthodox single-leg takedown approach, and he trips Candelario up and puts him on the mat. Candelario works back up using the fence behind him. Taira cannot keep him there for long, but he does rip the body with a left when Candelario stands. Taira backs off and hammers the lead leg with a kick, but it is one-and-done as Candelario checks one on the outside. Candelario presses forward with punches, and he turns the corner with a single and plants the Japanese fighter on the canvas. Taira nearly defends with a choke on his way down, but Candelario is able to yank his neck free and ride out the remainder of the round on top.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Taira
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Taira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Taira

Round 2
The flyweights meet in the middle of the cage to start the second frame, but they are hesitant to engage early on. They paw at one another with jabs, and a left to the body from Candelario nearly bumps into the cup. They trade high kicks, and Candelario chases a takedown but cannot get him there. A lightning-quick right hand from Taira drops Candelario down to the mat, and Taira looks to finish the job with ground-and-pound and slams him with several unanswered punches. Candelario explodes back to his feet, and Taira jumps on his back quickly and ties up a body triangle before fishing for a choke. Candelario lowers himself to the mat so that he does not have to carry the weight of another person, and Taira hangs on tight and is softening him up with punches and the occasional elbow. Taira fishes for a rear-naked choke, and Candelario considers tapping but decides not to so that he can tough it out. He miraculously slips his neck free from danger, and Taira answers him by rising up and blasting him with an elbow. Taira is relentless with his back control, threatening with chokes or staying busy with strikes, and thwarting a reversal as Candelario appears to have cleared out the cobwebs. Candelario hangs on tight to the wrists of his foe so that a choke or crank cannot materialize, and he rolls to present an unusual position that sees them both on their back somehow. Taira nails him with a right hand, and Candelario powers through to turn Taira over. Taira is slick, and thanks in part to his body triangle, he is able to take Candelario’s back again. The twisting and turning continues, with Candelario again reversing him to wind up in Taira’s guard. Taira sits up as Candelario pounds on him like a drum, and he grinds his elbow a few times for good measure in hopes of ending the round on a positive note. A few more strikes from the American conclude the second round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Taira
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Taira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Taira

Round 3
The last round opens with a great deal of caution, and the first strike is a groin kick from Taira as Candelario rolls his eyes in frustration. Candelario is given ample time to recover from Beltran, but he only takes 30 seconds before getting back to it. Candelario is on the attack after the foul, swinging his way into a single. Candelario successfully drags his foe down to the canvas, but Taira turns a corner and goes after his own takedown. When Taira hits it, Candelario snatches hold of a guillotine choke. Candelario uses the choke to turn Taira over to take mount, and he releases it when he finds himself in half guard. Candelario is warned for an elbow to the back of the head, as Taira sits up to pursue a takedown. This cycle continues, as Candelario defends with a guillotine once more, but he does not have the same leverage nor steam in his arms to make it tight and dangerous. Taira does find himself in possible Von Preux position, but Candelario turns him over and falls into a triangle choke. Taira rolls all the way through to mounted triangle position, and the wild scramble that ensues leads to Taira taking the back with a tight body triangle. The unbeaten fighter never gives Candelario a moment to breathe, hunting for a neck crank or slamming Candelario with elbows and punches. Taira, comfortable in full mount with one of Candelario’s hands trapped, begins to unload ground-and-pound. Beltran keeps a close eye on the fight, and every time Candelario sits up, Taira drags him down and batters him more. Although he does not get the finish he was seeking, Taira was quite close to a stoppage toward the end and more than likely won the fight going away.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Taira (30-27 Taira)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Taira (30-27 Taira)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Taira (30-27 Taira)

The Official Result
Tatsuro Taira def. Carlos Candelario via Unanimous Decision (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
Expert Picks (2)
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 11, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Candelario

Cody picks Candelario as a dog, noting he had him at +225 originally. He thinks Taira is unproven against properly sized flyweights and has never fought outside Japan. He believes Candelario has high-level BJJ and can make it competitive. He plans to line shop and may bet Candelario again.

"i'm gonna go with candelario dogger pass situation again uh we'll check out weigh-ins cause i don't think i'm getting better than plus 200"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 11, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tatsuro Taira

Paul flips to Taira after Cody's argument about the extra two weeks in Vegas being beneficial. He notes Taira is a 22-year-old prospect who has never fought outside Japan, but the extra time to acclimate could help. He thinks Taira's back-taking ability and body triangle control will be key. He says Cody made him a believer.

"now you gotta board that plane now i gotta come to north america i gotta sell into las vegas you have a translator with you the weight cuts different the food you eat at the store is different everything around you is different okay now you gotta get on the scales that's a pressure situation... ah [ __ ] you made a believer out a little cody"