Jake Hadley

Angelo picks Cameron Smotherman (referred to as Brady Hiestand, but the fight is Smotherman vs Hadley; likely a transcript error) because he believes Smotherman's wrestling, size, and strength will be too much for Jake Hadley. He notes Hadley's win over Ken Laramie was more about Laramie's poor performance than Hadley's skill. He thinks Smotherman's grit and takedown ability will dominate, and he expects the odds to widen further.

Big Brady picks Jake Hadley by second-round submission. He notes Smotherman has a questionable chin and non-existent takedown defense. Hadley can take him down easily and has a big BJJ advantage. He expects Hadley to make it look easy, possibly finishing by submission in the second round.

Connor also picks Hadley, emphasizing that Smotherman's lack of movement and poor defense make him a perfect opponent for Hadley's slick offensive boxing. He notes that Smotherman's only path to victory is if opponents let him pressure them, but Hadley will pour on volume and not be intimidated.

This fight was not discussed in the transcript.

Hadley has a big grappling advantage and Smotherman is taking this fight on short notice, having to cut to 135 lbs and flying from Abu Dhabi. Hadley is the better grappler and should have no problems taking the fight to the ground where Smotherman has shown issues. Look for Hadley to get a submission.

The Guru picks Smotherman (referred to as Brady Hiestand) despite acknowledging that picking against Jake Hadley often backfires. He notes Smotherman is bigger and has more experience, and expects him to lead the dance with pressure and cardio, winning a 29-28 decision by taking over in the last two rounds. He doubts Hadley's offensive grappling and sees him looking for submissions from bottom.

Angelo picks Caolán Loughran due to the size advantage, as Jake Hadley is moving up on short notice. He notes that Loughran will use his size to bully Hadley against the cage and slow the pace. Angelo acknowledges that Hadley is the better technical striker but believes the weight difference and Loughran's pressure will be decisive. He also mentions a potential plus 3.5 round bet on Hadley.

Cody picks Caolán Loughran, citing his physicality, pressure, and durability. He notes that Jake Hadley has looked defeated in recent fights, has poor cardio, and is moving up on short notice. Cody believes Loughran's constant forward pressure and takedowns will overwhelm Hadley, who has shown no ability to overcome adversity.

Daniel picks Caolán Loughran, citing his physical strength and the fact that Hadley is moving up a weight class on short notice. He notes Hadley has been inconsistent and struggled in his last two fights, and doesn't think he'll fare better against a stronger opponent.

Daniel thinks Caolán Loughran is the more physical fighter who can bully Jake Hadley with takedowns and top control. He notes Hadley's takedown defense issues and Loughran's durability, though Loughran is hittable. He picks Loughran to win by grinding out a decision.

Paul also picks Loughran, noting that Hadley's pace is unsustainable and that Loughran's volume (140 significant strikes in his last fight) will be too much. He believes Hadley will get outmuscled and that Loughran's wrestling and pressure will secure the win.

Angelo leans towards Jake Hadley because he cannot trust Charles Johnson's one phenomenal showing over several mediocre ones. He notes Hadley has good takedowns and BJJ, though his takedown accuracy is low due to bailing on attempts. He acknowledges that if the version of Johnson that beat Azat Maksum shows up, he wins, but that version has only appeared once.

Big Brady picks Charles Johnson, citing the hometown advantage in St. Louis and the possibility that Johnson can do enough on the feet while mixing in takedowns. He notes that Johnson has been taken down in every UFC fight but that Hadley has zero takedowns in the UFC, so the fight likely stays standing. He is not confident because Johnson can be low volume and hesitant, but if the version that fought Maxim shows up, he can win. He expects a decision and thinks the hometown rub could help Johnson in a close fight.

Cody picks Johnson as a confident underdog. He argues that Hadley is overhyped, with poor cardio, weak striking, and a questionable chin. Johnson has excellent get-up game, having been taken down many times but always getting back up. He also has superior boxing and volume. Cody believes Johnson can stuff takedowns or get up quickly, and outwork Hadley on the feet. He notes that Hadley has looked bad against wrestlers and grapplers, and Johnson is a tough veteran.

Daniel Vreeland picks Charles Johnson, noting that the fighters who beat Johnson are relentless wrestlers, which Hadley is not. He believes Johnson's cardio and volume will be key, and that Hadley's weight cut (walking around 160 lbs) will be a factor. He predicts a unanimous decision win for Johnson.

Paul picks Johnson, echoing Cody's reasoning. He notes that Johnson showed improved takedown defense in his last fight and has never been submitted. Hadley's cardio and striking are suspect, and Johnson's volume should win rounds. Paul thinks Johnson's get-up game and durability will be key. He is confident in the underdog.

Angelo leans toward Cody Durden for the upset, despite Jake Hadley being a near 2-1 favorite. He notes Durden's heavy hands and relentless wrestling pace, but acknowledges Hadley is the better overall fighter with dangerous BJJ. He points out that Hadley has been taken down in almost every fight and given up control time. Angelo plans to wait for line movement and may bet Durden if he becomes a bigger underdog, comparing it to missing out on CJ Vergara.

Big Brady is confident in Hadley, citing his improved striking, volume, and BJJ black belt. He notes Durden has been submitted three times (twice in UFC) and is taking this fight on short notice. He expects Hadley to break Durden and submit him in the second round, possibly after Durden makes a mistake on the mat.

Cody picks Hadley, citing his superior boxing, power, and opportunistic submission game. He notes Durden's short notice and tendency to make mistakes leading to submissions. He believes Hadley can survive Durden's wrestling early and take over in later rounds. He also likes Hadley by submission at +225.

Daniel Levi picks Cody Durden, citing his relentless wrestling, pace, and improvements training with champion Alexandre Pantoja. He notes that Durden's balls-to-the-wall style can leave openings for submissions, but believes if Durden avoids those, his path to victory is clear via wrestling and pressure. Levi acknowledges Hadley's opportunistic finishing ability but thinks Durden's grappling and cardio will overwhelm Hadley over three rounds. He is biased as Durden's friend but still makes a strong case.

James is confident Jake Hadley wins, either by submission or on the feet. He notes Hadley's jiu-jitsu is elite and can counteract Durden's wrestling, and that Durden has been submitted before. He also favors Hadley in striking, matching power. He expects Durden to shoot takedowns and put himself in bad positions.

Hadley is the better striker and has good defensive grappling to counter Durden's wrestling. Durden is fragile against resistance. I like the under 2.5 rounds more than the moneyline because Hadley is likely to finish Durden, though there's a chance Durden grinds out a decision. I'm going with Hadley by finish under 2.5 rounds.

Paul leans towards Durden as an underdog, citing his wrestling and ability to control the fight. He notes Hadley's takedown defense issues and believes Durden can grind out a decision. However, he is not confident and sees it as a live bet opportunity.

Angelo is confident Jake Hadley wins and thinks the odds should be wider. He notes Hadley has solid boxing and aggressive BJJ, while Malcolm Gordon is chinny and gets finished. He thinks Gordon's performance against Makayev is misleading because Makayev is not dangerous. He expects Hadley to beat Gordon up on the feet and survive any submission attempts.

Big Brady picks Jake Hadley, citing Malcolm Gordon's poor durability (all losses inside distance) and 9% takedown defense. He notes Hadley's takedown defense is a concern (37%), but believes Hadley can finish via KO or submission. He predicts a second-round submission, but acknowledges Gordon is a solid fighter otherwise.

Cody picks Hadley, citing his significant advantages in boxing and wrestling. He notes Gordon has durability issues and has been submitted recently. He thinks Hadley can dictate where the fight goes and will likely finish Gordon by knockout or submission. He says Hadley is more refined and has beaten better competition.

Connor picks Hadley, citing Gordon's severe durability issues. He notes that Gordon's aggressive style leaves him open to counters, and Hadley has the chin to absorb punishment and keep fighting. Connor believes Hadley's pressure and volume will eventually break Gordon, who has a history of getting knocked out.

Jacob thinks Jake Hadley is the better fighter and should win, but he is worried about Malcolm Gordon's wildness and aggression. He notes Gordon goes out on his shield and takes chances, which could lead to a submission or scramble that catches Hadley. He has Hadley in a parlay but is a bit worried about it.

Hadley has crisp boxing and a dangerous submission game, as shown in his last win over Candelario. Gordon is a BJJ black belt but his striking is uncomfortable and he crashes the pocket recklessly to get takedowns. Hadley is the better striker and grappler, and should be able to dictate where the fight goes. A finish inside the distance is likely, either by knockout or club-and-sub.

Paul picks Hadley but is more interested in the plus money on fight goes to decision. He notes Hadley hasn't shown huge power and Gordon is durable enough to go the distance. He likes Hadley by decision at plus 400 and thinks it could grow to plus 500. He says Hadley at home should get the nod in a close fight.

The MMA Guru picks Jake Hadley to win by TKO or submission, praising his composure and improvement since his debut. He notes Gordon's chin is suspect and Hadley has the striking and grappling advantage. He predicts Hadley will pressure Gordon, hurt him on the feet, and potentially latch on a rear-naked choke after dropping him.

Angelo picks Jake Hadley, calling him the cleaner, more technical fighter with solid boxing, takedowns, and BJJ. He notes Candelario is gritty and a dog, but hasn't been the same since a four-year layoff. He warns that if Hadley gets sucked into a scrap, he could have trouble, but overall likes Hadley to get it done.

Big Brady views this as a tailor-made matchup for Hadley, citing Candelario's historically poor takedown defense. He believes Hadley's wrestling and grappling will dominate, and he can grind out a decision. The only concern is Hadley's UFC debut where he failed to take down Nascimento, but Candelario's takedown defense is much worse. He expects Hadley to dictate where the fight takes place and win by decision.

Cody picks Carlos Candelario as an underdog. He notes that Candelario has good defensive grappling, surviving against high-level BJJ guys like Ronald Candido and Tatsuya Taira. He thinks Candelario has better volume and offensive wrestling, as seen against Victor Altamirano (5 takedowns). Hadley has shown poor grappling off his back, getting taken down by Alan Nascimento and unable to get up. Cody thinks Candelario can take Hadley down and grind him out, but acknowledges Hadley may be stronger. He is leaning towards Candelario but not fully locked in.

Connor agrees, noting that Candelario is difficult to submit and control, and his aggressive style will force mistakes from Hadley. Hadley's guard game is unlikely to succeed at flyweight, and Candelario's cardio and scrambling should win out. Connor acknowledges Hadley could win if he improves, but needs to see it first.

Daniel Levi leans Jake Hadley, noting he may be more physically imposing and should scrape by. He acknowledges Candelario's toughness but sees Hadley as the better fighter. He is not interested in laying -255 on him.

The host likes Hadley's offensive grappling but is cautious about the wide line (-275). He notes Hadley struggled against opponents who could contend on the ground, and Candelario showed good submission defense in his last fight. He expects Hadley to control the fight via grappling but likely go to decision, as Candelario may survive submission attempts. He prefers to wait for over/under totals rather than play the moneyline.

Paul picks Candelario and has already bet him at +225. He notes that Hadley got exposed against Nascimento, who negated his grappling. Candelario has proven he can survive on the ground and has better striking volume. Paul thinks Candelario's offensive wrestling could be key, as he scored takedowns against Taira. He sees Candelario as a live underdog.

The MMA Guru picks Jake Hadley, noting he is a 3-to-1 favorite with 92% of tapology picks. He believes Hadley should beat Candelario if he initiates grappling early rather than striking. He criticizes Candelario's performance against Tatsuro Taira and notes Hadley's strong competition outside the UFC. He predicts a submission win in the second round, but disagrees with the wide odds, suggesting Candelario is not bad.

Cody picks Nascimento as a live underdog. He notes Nascimento is tricky off his back, has good cardio, and keeps fights close. He mentions Hadley missed weight, has attitude issues, and is still adjusting to North America. He thinks the plus money is worth a shot.