UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos

Angelo picks Rodriguez, expecting her volume to be the difference. He notes she needs to avoid Lemos's power and stay technical, following the blueprint Angela Hill almost used. He acknowledges Lemos is dangerous with 7 stoppage wins and considers a no-action bet on Lemos by stoppage.

Big Brady cites Lemos's cardio concerns in a five-round fight, noting she has never gone past three rounds. He believes Rodriguez has improved takedown defense and better cardio, and will take over as the fight progresses. He predicts Rodriguez will finish a tired Lemos in the third or fourth round by knockout.

Cody picks Marina Rodriguez, citing her recent run as a viable title challenger, experience in five-round fights, and superior striking volume and power. He notes her takedown defense and ability to survive on the ground, as seen against MacKenzie Dern. He is not sold on Amanda Lemos, pointing to her age, lack of a big win, and close split decision against Angela Hill. He predicts Rodriguez wins by decision, but is not running to the book to bet at the current line.

Daniel Levi leans Marina Rodriguez, citing her durability and ability to pull away in later rounds (third, fourth, fifth) as Lemos fades. He notes Rodriguez's slow starts and vulnerability to takedowns, as she struggles to get up from bottom, but believes her volume and cardio advantage will overcome Lemos's early power. He mentions the line (-210) is a bit wide and does not have a bet on this fight.

The host believes Rodriguez's durability, cardio, and disciplined striking will overcome Lemos's early power. He notes Lemos fades after round one and telegraphs her shots, while Rodriguez has experience going five rounds. He predicts a late TKO (round 5) as Lemos fades, but also sees decision as likely.

Paul agrees with Cody's points but struggles with the -220 price, which implies nearly 69% win probability. He thinks 7-3 Rodriguez is reasonable but not a betting opportunity. He does not like the decision prop because he questions Lemos's cardio in five rounds, noting she has been finished or finished early in previous five-round fights. He is considering the under on total rounds, possibly getting plus money, and will wait for weigh-ins to see if Lemos has a bad weight cut. He picks Rodriguez for the show but will not attack the -220 line.

The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez, noting Lemos's power has been absorbed by durable opponents like Michelle Waterson and Angela Hill. He believes Rodriguez's boxing, chin, and own power will surprise Lemos. He predicts a decision win (48-47 or 49-46) as Lemos may hesitate in a five-round fight, while Rodriguez's grappling defense is a concern but not an issue if it stays standing.

Angelo picks Magny, citing his well-roundedness and the many factors against Rodriguez: a close fight many thought he lost, a quick turnaround, and a staph infection that prevented training. He notes Magny is more well-rounded overall and expects him to get it done.

Big Brady favors Rodriguez's striking speed and volume, expecting him to stuff Magny's takedowns and keep the fight at range. He notes concerns about Rodriguez's recent injury and weight cut but believes he will win a decision. He sees Magny's path to victory as a grinding fight, but doubts he can implement it.

Cody picks Daniel Rodriguez to edge a close competitive decision. He notes that Magny relies heavily on wrestling and controlling opponents against the cage, but at 35, his takedown success is declining, as seen against Max Griffin (1 for 8) and Shavkat Rakhmonov. Rodriguez has good takedown defense and pops back up quickly, as shown against Jingliang and Kevin Lee. Rodriguez also has superior volume, landing high significant strikes in his fights, while Magny's output is lower because he focuses on grappling. In the Apex, the acoustics favor the volume striker, so Rodriguez should win by decision.

Daniel Levi picks Daniel Rodriguez, noting he bet him at +100 for two units. He believes Rodriguez has crisper, more meaningful strikes and that Magny may be on the decline, citing the Max Griffin fight where Magny was dropped and the Shavkat fight where he had no success. He warns that Rodriguez must avoid being lulled into Magny's clinch-heavy game, but thinks Rodriguez's cardio and boxing give him the edge.

The host likes Magny's pace, pressure, and cardio, believing he can outwork Rodriguez. He notes Magny's win over Jeff Neal (a better striker) as a positive indicator. He expects Magny to use dirty clinch, kicks, and volume to win a decision, and sees value on the moneyline.

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Magny's jabs are often not counted as significant strikes, so his total strikes may be misleading. He points out that judges are rewarding bigger, cleaner shots over volume of jabs, which favors Rodriguez. He also questions whether Magny can dominate the grappling, as he has struggled against better grapplers. Paul picks d-rod for the same reasons.

The MMA Guru picks Daniel Rodriguez, believing Magny's prime is past due to injuries and recent performances. He notes Rodriguez has underrated takedown defense and will outbox Magny, who relies on straight punches. He predicts a KO in round two, citing Magny's loss to Max Griffin and Rodriguez's full camp advantage.

Angelo picks Nuerdanbieke, impressed by his fight IQ and ability to initiate and control grappling. He notes Minner is better than his record but was outstruck by Ryan Hall, which is embarrassing. He expects Nuerdanbieke to bully forward and control on the mat. He mentions he got the moneyline at -200.

Big Brady sees Minner as a live dog due to his dangerous submission game and Nuerdanbieke's history of being submitted. He notes Minner's improvements with coach James Krause and his ability to survive submissions (e.g., against Ryan Hall). He predicts Minner will find a first-round submission, though he acknowledges Minner could gas out if it goes longer.

Cody picks Darrick Minner as an underdog, noting his one-dimensional submission game, especially a nasty guillotine. He thinks Minner could catch Nuerdanbieke early in transition, as Nuerdanbieke has shown poor wrestling and Jiu-Jitsu in his UFC debut against Josh Culibao and was taken down by Sean Soriano. Minner's cardio is questionable, but if he doesn't finish in the first round, Cody suggests live betting Nuerdanbieke. He sees Minner as a live underdog who could snatch a submission.

Connor picks Minner because Nuerdanbieke has six submission losses, four in the first round, and Minner is a fast, opportunistic grappler who capitalizes on mistakes. He acknowledges that if the fight goes past the first round, Nuerdanbieke likely wins, but Minner's early explosiveness and submission threat are decisive. Connor notes that Nuerdanbieke's losses to T.J. Brown and Sean Soriano show he can be broken by aggressive fighters like Minner.

Daniel Levi picks Shayilan Nuerdanbieke, citing his strength and top control. He notes that Darrick Minner is dangerous early with submissions but tends to fatigue, and once Shayilan neutralizes those early threats, he can dominate the second and third rounds.

The host sees Minner as sub-round-one-or-bust, with a dangerous submission threat early. He expects Shayilan to survive the early danger, use his strong clinch and grappling to grind Minner down, and win by decision. He notes the line is typical for a fighter with a wider path to victory but warns Minner could catch a desperation guillotine. He passes on betting.

Paul is more drawn to the under 2.5 rounds than the moneyline. He notes that Nuerdanbieke has been submitted by nobodies on the Chinese regional scene, and while he survived four submission attempts against TJ Brown, that's not high-level competition. Minner tends to gas if he doesn't get the early finish, but Paul thinks the fight ends inside the distance. He prefers the under 2.5 rounds prop over the moneyline.

The MMA Guru picks Shayilan Nuerdanbieke, citing his weird strength, improved cardio, and methodical style. He notes that Minner has pulled off upsets but against wild opponents, while Nuerdanbieke is technical and low-risk. He predicts a 29-28 decision in a competitive fight, respecting Minner's abilities.

Zane favors Nuerdanbieke because Minner is a first-round finish machine who often gasses if he doesn't get the early stoppage. Nuerdanbieke is durable, pushes a high pace, and has good transitional skills, which should wear Minner down as the fight goes on. Zane notes that Minner's recent decision win over Charles Rosa was more about Rosa's passive style than Minner's improvement, and Nuerdanbieke's aggression will break him.

Angelo picks Maness as a heavy underdog, citing his better boxing, takedown defense, and ability to stick to a game plan. He notes Ulanbekov looked bad against Tim Elliott, not wrestling enough and being taken down easily. He considers a half-unit moneyline bet or a +3.5 prop.

Big Brady likes Ulanbekov's grappling and control, expecting him to take Maness down and keep him there. He notes Maness's poor get-up game and the fact that Maness is cutting to flyweight for the first time, which could affect his cardio. However, he is wary of Maness's ability to pull off wins and plans to stay away from betting on this fight.

Cody picks Nate Maness as a live underdog. He notes that Ulanbekov has not looked impressive in the UFC, with close split decisions against Bruno Silva and Alan Nascimento, and a loss to Tim Elliott where he was taken down and outstruck. Maness has shown heart and takedown defense, surviving Tony Gravely's wrestling and knocking him out in the second round. At 125 pounds, Maness may have better takedown defense and striking. Cody thinks Maness can keep the fight standing and land combinations, making Ulanbekov desperate and shooting takedowns. He recommends waiting for weigh-ins to see Maness at 125.

Daniel Levi picks Tagir Ulanbekov, having bet him at -175 for two units. He believes Ulanbekov's grappling and top control will be too much for Nate Maness, who struggles to get up from bottom. He notes Ulanbekov's toughness and recent training with Khabib's team, and expects a dominant performance.

The host is concerned about Ulanbekov's inability to control opponents on the ground and his close fights. He acknowledges Maness's durability and striking power, but thinks Ulanbekov can land enough takedowns and clinch work to win a decision. He is not confident enough to bet at -190 and will stay away.

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Nate Maness as an underdog. He highlights Maness's takedown defense against Johnny Munoz (2 for 16) and Tony Gravely (1 for 6), and his ability to come back from adversity, as seen against Gravely where he broke his jaw and still won. Paul notes that Maness is moving down to 125, which could be an X-factor, as he may be stronger and have better takedown defense. He thinks Maness's striking is superior to Ulanbekov's, and that Ulanbekov's camp may underestimate Maness because Umar Nurmagomedov beat him easily. Paul locks in Maness as an underdog pick.

The MMA Guru picks Tagir Ulanbekov, criticizing Maness's performance against Umar Nurmagomedov where he accepted being on bottom. He notes Ulanbekov's quality grappling, evidenced by a split decision win over Allan Nascimento. He predicts Ulanbekov will control the fight, winning 29-28 by taking dominant positions in later rounds.

Angelo picks Dawson, citing his better overall striking and wrestling. He notes Madsen is an Olympic wrestler but doesn't always use it, and Dawson has takedowns in every fight. He thinks the extra week of preparation helps Dawson. He does not bet the moneyline but considers a prop on Madsen +3.5.

Big Brady believes the line is off and Madsen is being disrespected. He highlights Madsen's Olympic-level wrestling, improved striking, and cardio, while Dawson is hittable and coming in on short notice. He expects Madsen to keep the fight on the feet, stuff takedowns, and out-strike Dawson to win a decision.

Cody picks Mark Madsen as an underdog, but is on the fence. He notes that Dawson has struggled against strong grapplers, like Leo Santos (close fight) and Ricky Glenn (gassed and got a 10-8 round). Madsen has superior wrestling and could be the one getting takedowns and grinding on Dawson. Cody points out that Madsen's fight against Vince Pichel was close, and he thinks Madsen could win a tight decision by mixing in takedowns and using his jab and leg kicks, as he did against Clay Guida. He sees this as a dog or pass spot.

Daniel Levi picks Mark Madsen as an underdog, citing his top control and ability to neutralize Grant Dawson's guard pulls. He notes Dawson's suspect gas tank in later rounds, as seen in the Rick Glenn fight, and believes Madsen's Olympic-level wrestling and slightly better striking pop can secure a win. He is not super convicted but likes the dog odds.

The host favors Dawson due to youth, athleticism, and superior grappling. He notes Madsen's improved striking but believes Dawson's wrestling and BJJ will be too much. He expects Dawson to mix output on the feet with grappling, potentially getting a late finish or decision. He sees Dawson as parlay material at -230.

Paul is also on the fence but picks Madsen for the show. He argues that Madsen could be live because MMA judging often rewards control time, as seen in the Pichel fight where Madsen got the decision despite being outstruck. In the Apex, Madsen can lay on top and tick away the clock. He thinks Dawson should win, but Madsen's style could lead to a close decision. Paul considers it a dog or pass spot.

The MMA Guru picks Grant Dawson, citing Madsen's close wins and age (38). He believes Dawson's unorthodox striking and kicks will give Madsen problems, and that Madsen won't be able to take him down. He predicts a 29-28 decision, noting the age difference favors the younger fighter.

Angelo is very confident in Maverick, expecting her to come forward, get takedowns, and bully her way to a win similar to her last fight. He notes Young is a solid boxer but lacks takedowns in the UFC and has BJJ gaps. He calls Maverick a parlay piece and says the odds will be stupid wide, advising to bet early.

Big Brady recalls their previous fight where Maverick submitted Young in the first round in Invicta. He believes Maverick is the better striker and grappler, and Young's takedown defense is not enough to stop Maverick. He expects a repeat performance with a first-round submission.

Cody picks Miranda Maverick, noting that she already finished Young in the first round in Invicta. He acknowledges that Young has improved since moving to Las Vegas and getting a win over Gina Mazany, but he doesn't see where Young wins. Maverick is more physical, has superior ground game, and is training with top competition. He predicts Maverick will submit Young, likely in the second or early third round. He is not excited about the -650 moneyline but likes Maverick by submission.

Connor agrees with Zane, adding that Maverick is comfortable pressuring and converting clinch into takedowns. He notes that Shanna Young is a poor matchup for Maverick because she lacks the defensive wrestling to stop takedowns, and Maverick's recent improvements make this a gimme.

Daniel Levi picks Miranda Maverick, stating she is simply outmatched and the odds reflect that. He notes Maverick's country girl strength, improved striking-to-takedown flow, and intelligence, while Shanna Young may be hungry but is outclassed.

The host is very high on Maverick, citing her improving skills, new gym (Elevation Fight Team), and superior ground game. He expects her to dominate Young, who is a decent striker but weak on the ground. He predicts a finish inside the distance and may bet the under 2.5 rounds if plus money.

Paul agrees with Cody and is loading up on the 'fight doesn't go to decision' prop at -110. He notes that Maverick already finished Young in the first round, so he likes the prop over the moneyline. He thinks Maverick will get the job done inside the distance again.

The MMA Guru picks Miranda Maverick, calling her underrated and noting she clearly beat Maycee Barber. He highlights her training at Elevation Fight Team, age 25, and wrestling skills. He dismisses Shanna Young's win over Gina Mazany and believes Maverick will win a 30-27 unanimous decision, outclassing Young.

Zane is confident Maverick will dominate, citing her pressure, clinch work, and takedowns. He notes that Shanna Young was easily controlled by Gina Mazany, and Maverick is a better athlete and grappler. Maverick's recent move to a new camp had a rough transition but looked better against Mazo, and Young will give her free rein to work her clinch and takedowns.

Angelo picks Bautista, noting his high volume, forward pressure, and submission threat. He acknowledges Lopez's three-year layoff is a major concern, and while Lopez is wild and fun, that style can lead to takedowns and submissions. He says he tries not to bet on long layoff fights.

Big Brady notes Lopez's three-year layoff and questionable training, while Bautista is improving and training at MMA Lab. He expects Bautista to have better cardio and the ability to mix in takedowns. He predicts an exciting first round but Bautista will take over and submit Lopez in the second round.

Cody picks Mario Bautista, calling him a stud. He notes Bautista's wrestling, striking power, better footwork, and quicker hands compared to Lopez. He acknowledges Bautista's vulnerability when fights get dirty, as seen against Trevin Jones, but thinks he can stay at the outside and use leg kicks and combinations. He also notes Bautista's submission win over Brian Kelleher showed new wrinkles. Lopez has been inactive (3.5-year layoff) and has only two UFC fights since 2017, with questionable improvements. Cody is confident Bautista wins but finds the -290 price a bit trappy.

Connor picks Bautista, noting that Lopez is a pure brawler who relies on hooks and has poor clinch and wrestling. Bautista has options: he can brawl, clinch, or wrestle, and he lands harder shots. Lopez's layoff and tendency to get hit clean make him vulnerable to Bautista's more technical striking and grappling transitions.

Daniel Levi picks Mario Bautista, having bet him at -225 for two units. He believes Bautista's activity, grit, and volume will overwhelm Benito Lopez, who is coming off a three-year layoff and has shown durability issues. He notes Lopez is live for a flashy finish but if that doesn't happen, Bautista will chip away and possibly get a finish of his own.

The host likes Bautista's overall game and believes he can grind Lopez on the ground. He notes Lopez's 3.5-year layoff and real estate career as concerns, but acknowledges Lopez's herky-jerky style could cause problems. He recommends using Bautista as a parlay piece and expects a finish inside the distance.

Paul picks Bautista, impressed by his performances outside the Trevin Jones fight. He notes Bautista's submission win over Kelleher showed improved grappling. He has no idea what to expect from Lopez after a three-year layoff and wasn't impressed by his past performances. Paul thinks Bautista could even get a submission, but the price on that prop (+600) is decent. He picks Bautista for the show.

The MMA Guru picks Mario Bautista, impressed by his last win over Brian Kelleher where he looked confident and crisp. He notes Bautista trains at MMA Lab and is 29, while Lopez returns after a two-year layoff. He predicts a first-round TKO, believing Bautista's recent form and confidence will overwhelm the rusty Lopez.

Zane favors Bautista because he is more than a brawler; he uses brawling as a transition to clinch and takedowns, while Lopez's brawl is the entire fight. Bautista is a more impactful puncher with better defense and exits exchanges with crisp shots. Lopez has a three-year layoff and tends to get wild when pressured, which plays into Bautista's hands.

Angelo picks Frey, citing her physicality, veteran savvy, and well-roundedness. He expects Frey to slow the pace, hold Viana against the cage, and avoid ground threats. He notes Viana is dangerous with submissions but relies on opponents to get to the ground. He is on the fence about betting, waiting for prop bets.

Big Brady criticizes Frey's low volume and poor cardio, while noting Viana's dangerous submission game and 100% finish rate. He expects Viana to pull guard and get the fight to the mat, where she is very dangerous with arm bars and triangles. He predicts a first-round submission, though he acknowledges Frey's takedown defense is strong.

Cody picks Polyana Viana by submission. He notes that Viana is the 'armbar queen' and that submission is very much on the table. He references the Kate Hanson fight where Frey was submitted by armbar, and thinks Viana can do the same. He acknowledges that Viana has had travel issues from Brazil but still likes her to find a submission. He prefers Viana by sub at +350 over the moneyline.

Connor agrees, noting that Frey's cautious style and lack of confidence make her unlikely to take advantage of Viana's chaotic approach. Viana will insist on making the fight happen, and Frey has historically frozen under pressure. Viana's finishes (12 inside the distance) contrast with Frey's lack of finishing ability.

Daniel Levi picks Polyana Viana, citing her will to win and opportunistic armbar from guard. He notes Jinh Yu Frey is more polished standing, but Viana's aggression and submission threat on the mat give her the edge. He is not laying chalk on it.

The host sees this as a difficult fight but leans Viana due to her chaotic style and submission threat. He notes Frey could grind out a decision, but Viana's aggression and BJJ make her dangerous. He prefers the under 2.5 rounds prop rather than the moneyline, expecting a finish from Viana.

Paul picks Jinh Yu Frey as an underdog. He argues that Frey is a BJJ black belt and has not been submitted lately, surviving against Ashley Yoder and Vanessa Demopoulos. He thinks Frey is better standing, with improved volume (88 significant strikes against Yoder, 62 against Demopoulos). He criticizes Viana as one-dimensional, with poor striking and a tendency to get controlled on the ground, as seen against Tabatha Ricci. He believes Frey can win a decision by outworking Viana.

The MMA Guru picks Polyana Viana, noting Frey's submission loss to Kay Hansen and decision loss to Vanessa Demopoulos. He believes Viana, at 30, is in her prime and has submission skills, particularly armbars. He predicts Viana will get a submission, likely an armbar or triangle, after making Frey shoot for takedowns.

Zane picks Viana because Frey is too tentative and cautious, lacking the aggression to capitalize on Viana's defensive lapses. Viana is aggressive, throws from all ranges, and will force the action. Frey's inability to pull the trigger, as seen in her loss to Vanessa Demopoulos, makes her unreliable even against a flawed opponent like Viana.

Angelo gives a slight lean to Muñoz because he has more ways to win, citing his BJJ black belt and harder strikes. However, he calls it a razor-thin fight, noting Sholinian has better takedowns and relentless pressure, and is very live as an underdog. He mentions Muñoz can be low volume and slow with kicks.

Big Brady highlights Muñoz's elite grappling and BJJ black belt, expecting a significant advantage on the mat. He notes Sholinian's wrestling background but unimpressive striking and grappling. He believes the fight will hit the mat at some point, and when it does, Muñoz will be very live for a submission. He predicts a second-round submission.

Cody picks Johnny Muñoz Jr., noting his superior BJJ and wrestling compared to Sholinian. He thinks Muñoz showed promise in his debut against Nate Maness (outstruck him 49-21, got two takedowns) and finished Jamie Simmons. He acknowledges Muñoz got knocked out by Tony Gravely, but Gravely is explosive. Sholinian has been inactive (14 months) and showed nothing against Jack Shore, landing only 19 significant strikes. Cody thinks Muñoz can take him down and control him, but he hates the -235 price and may consider Sholinian as a dog.

Connor picks Sholinian, believing he can shut down Munoz's wrestling better than Shore did. Munoz is not as deft a wrestling threat as Shore, and Sholinian's aggression and striking volume should carry him. Connor notes that Munoz's boxing is basic and he gets hit often.

Daniel Levi leans Johnny Muñoz Jr., citing his jiu-jitsu black belt and ability to land takedowns. He notes Sholinian is tough but not physically imposing, lacks power and submission threat, and Muñoz should be able to dominate positionally. He passed on betting due to the price (-225).

The host is high on Sholinian as a dog, citing his pressure style, takedown defense (6/8 against Jack Shore), and grit. He notes Muñoz Jr. struggles to land takedowns (4/20 in UFC) and relies on kicks, while Sholinian will stay in his face and outwork him. He expects Sholinian to stuff takedowns and win via decision, possibly with a late finish.

Paul picks Sholinian as an underdog, but is hesitant. He notes that Muñoz's only UFC win is over Jamie Simmons, a layup, and he took until the second round to finish him. Sholinian is a big bantamweight and was only taken down twice by Jack Shore, a top British wrestler. Paul added 'Muñoz Jr. under 2.5 takedowns' to his PrizePicks card, thinking Muñoz may not get many takedowns. He is considering Sholinian but will watch weigh-ins.

The MMA Guru picks Johnny Muñoz Jr., citing Sholinian's poor performance against Jack Shaw, who fought with one arm. He notes Muñoz has a decent win over Jamie Simmons and is a big bantamweight with good jiu-jitsu. He predicts a submission finish, specifically a rear-naked choke, continuing his trend.

Zane leans Sholinian because he is more aggressive and has some power, and he may shut down Munoz's wrestling better than Jack Shore did. Munoz's boxing is rudimentary, and Sholinian's pressure could overwhelm him. However, Zane admits it's a coin flip and not a good fight.

Angelo picks Jake Hadley, calling him the cleaner, more technical fighter with solid boxing, takedowns, and BJJ. He notes Candelario is gritty and a dog, but hasn't been the same since a four-year layoff. He warns that if Hadley gets sucked into a scrap, he could have trouble, but overall likes Hadley to get it done.

Big Brady views this as a tailor-made matchup for Hadley, citing Candelario's historically poor takedown defense. He believes Hadley's wrestling and grappling will dominate, and he can grind out a decision. The only concern is Hadley's UFC debut where he failed to take down Nascimento, but Candelario's takedown defense is much worse. He expects Hadley to dictate where the fight takes place and win by decision.

Cody picks Carlos Candelario as an underdog. He notes that Candelario has good defensive grappling, surviving against high-level BJJ guys like Ronald Candido and Tatsuya Taira. He thinks Candelario has better volume and offensive wrestling, as seen against Victor Altamirano (5 takedowns). Hadley has shown poor grappling off his back, getting taken down by Alan Nascimento and unable to get up. Cody thinks Candelario can take Hadley down and grind him out, but acknowledges Hadley may be stronger. He is leaning towards Candelario but not fully locked in.

Connor agrees, noting that Candelario is difficult to submit and control, and his aggressive style will force mistakes from Hadley. Hadley's guard game is unlikely to succeed at flyweight, and Candelario's cardio and scrambling should win out. Connor acknowledges Hadley could win if he improves, but needs to see it first.

Daniel Levi leans Jake Hadley, noting he may be more physically imposing and should scrape by. He acknowledges Candelario's toughness but sees Hadley as the better fighter. He is not interested in laying -255 on him.

The host likes Hadley's offensive grappling but is cautious about the wide line (-275). He notes Hadley struggled against opponents who could contend on the ground, and Candelario showed good submission defense in his last fight. He expects Hadley to control the fight via grappling but likely go to decision, as Candelario may survive submission attempts. He prefers to wait for over/under totals rather than play the moneyline.

Paul picks Candelario and has already bet him at +225. He notes that Hadley got exposed against Nascimento, who negated his grappling. Candelario has proven he can survive on the ground and has better striking volume. Paul thinks Candelario's offensive wrestling could be key, as he scored takedowns against Taira. He sees Candelario as a live underdog.

The MMA Guru picks Jake Hadley, noting he is a 3-to-1 favorite with 92% of tapology picks. He believes Hadley should beat Candelario if he initiates grappling early rather than striking. He criticizes Candelario's performance against Tatsuro Taira and notes Hadley's strong competition outside the UFC. He predicts a submission win in the second round, but disagrees with the wide odds, suggesting Candelario is not bad.

Zane picks Candelario because Hadley showed poor takedown defense in his debut, easily giving up takedowns and playing guard, which is disastrous at flyweight. Candelario is aggressive, hard to submit, and will push a high pace over three rounds. Hadley's willingness to fight off his back is a major liability.

Angelo picks Ramona Pascual despite acknowledging she has lost previous picks. He notes Pascual is well-rounded and tough, with solid striking and takedown defense, but lacks cardio and elite skills. He questions why Vidal was signed, citing poor stand-up and takedowns, but admits Vidal could dominate if she gets takedowns. The pick is hesitant because he's been wrong on Pascual before.

Big Brady sees no reason for Vidal to be favored, calling this a low-level fight where neither fighter deserves to be the favorite. He notes Vidal's poor striking and questionable wins, while Pascual has UFC experience and better striking. However, he has no confidence in the pick and expects a greasy decision, acknowledging Vidal's submission threat from guard.

Cody picks Ramona Pascual, noting that Vidal's only win came via a sloppy heel hook at a very low level. He watched Vidal's fight against Eileen Perez, which was in a makeshift gym, and was unimpressed. Pascual has shown glimpses of improvement, getting three takedowns against Josiane Nunes and dropping Jocelyn Edwards with a body shot. At 135 pounds, Pascual may be more physical and have better Muay Thai and clinch work. Cody thinks Pascual is the better all-around fighter and is surprised she is the underdog.

Connor picks Vidal, noting that Pascual has never beaten anyone of note and is a dead end at 34. Vidal is younger and has room to grow, though her technique is raw. Connor acknowledges that Pascual has a better process but lacks the athleticism to execute.

Daniel Levi picks Ramona Pascual based on her UFC experience and success getting takedowns in her UFC fights. He admits he doesn't have much analysis for this low-level fight but goes with the underdog.

The host sees Vidal as overrated, noting her limited striking (mostly an overhand right) and reliance on grappling against weak competition. He highlights that Vidal's wins came against questionable opponents and she was losing on the feet in previous fights before getting takedowns. He believes Pascual has enough output and grappling to stay safe and grind out a decision, making the underdog line of +135 valuable.

Paul picks Pascual, noting that she opened at +200 and has since moved to +120. He has seen her Instagram and she looks more defined at 135. He thinks Vidal's performance against Perez was horrible and that Pascual has shown she can hang in there. He is not betting it heavily but picks Pascual for the show.

The MMA Guru picks Ramona Pascual as an underdog, citing her size advantage and experience against tougher competition. He notes that Tamires Vidal is unproven and lost to Karol Rosa, while Pascual trains at Syndicate MMA and has looked good against fighters like Josiane Nunes and Jocelyn Edwards. However, he admits uncertainty about Vidal's potential, making this a hesitant pick based on known factors.

Zane picks Vidal because she is more athletic and has finishing potential, while Pascual is slow and unathletic. Vidal's only loss is to a decent fighter, and she has beaten some opponents with wins. However, Zane notes that Vidal's striking is messy and she relies on overhands and takedowns.