UFC on ESPN: Blachowicz vs. Rakic

Cody leans toward Rakić but is hesitant due to the price. He notes that Jan Błachowicz has a good body of work, striking, and takedown ability, but is concerned about a potential neck injury from the Glover fight. He thinks Rakić is young and hungry, but the value isn't there at -195, and he can't pull the trigger on the dog because he believes Jan is damaged goods.

Paul is undecided, calling it a dogger pass. He acknowledges a case for Rakić's wrestling not being tested and Jan's fantastic chin and cardio. He wants to wait for weigh-ins and interviews before making a pick. He leans toward Jan as a live dog if he drags Rakić into deep waters and takes him down multiple times.

Cody is confident in Cuțelaba, citing his improved cardio and game planning from the Devin Clark fight. He believes Cuțelaba has a wrestling edge, is stronger, and can take Spann down. He notes Spann is a one-round fighter with poor cardio and ground game, while Cuțelaba is putting it together at American Top Team. He thinks the -220 price is fair.

Paul picks Cuțelaba, noting he is more aggressive, tenacious, and has a wrestling edge. He thinks Spann is a one-round bust and Cuțelaba is durable outside the Ankalaev fight. He believes Cuțelaba is a rightful favorite.

Cody is confident in Davey Grant, citing his durability, cardio, power, and improved striking. He notes Grant has been fighting more frequently and showing heart, while Smolka has durability issues, poor wrestling, and was knocked out by Vince Morales. He thinks Grant is much stronger and will march Smolka down, though the -300 price is rich.

Paul agrees with Grant, struggling to see where Smolka wins unless by submission. He notes Grant is making up for lost time, has made significant improvements, and is an Ultimate Fighter winner. He thinks Grant's style and effort make him the pick despite the high price.

Cody picks Chookagian, agreeing she is a rightful favorite. He notes Ribas has been matched softly and showed limitations against Marina Rodriguez. He thinks Chookagian will out-volume Ribas on the outside, stuff takedowns, and win a decision. He mentions Chookagian's grappling has improved.

Paul is very confident in Chookagian by decision, calling it one of his first bets. He notes she out-volumes everyone, only gets finished by elite fighters, and Ribas's wrestling isn't good enough. He says 95% of her win probability is tied to a decision, and the decision prop at +120 is great value.

Cody picks Camacho but with very low confidence. He notes Camacho has more experience, a BJJ black belt, and looks in great shape on social media after a year off. However, he acknowledges Camacho's recent loss to Justin James and fight pullouts. He says there's not a shred of confidence in the selection.

Paul is undecided, calling it a 50-50 stay-away fight. He notes there's not enough footage on Torres and Camacho's last performance was poor. He mentions the line is close and he doesn't have enough confidence to pick either side.

Cody picks Nascimento as a live underdog. He notes Nascimento is tricky off his back, has good cardio, and keeps fights close. He mentions Hadley missed weight, has attitude issues, and is still adjusting to North America. He thinks the plus money is worth a shot.

Paul also picks Nascimento, calling it a dogger pass. He notes Nascimento is competitive, has good striking volume, and attacks non-stop off his back. He thinks Hadley is talented but has red flags like missing weight and rubbing matchmakers the wrong way. He likes the plus money.

Cody picks Andrea Lee, noting her improved takedown defense and cardio. He thinks Araújo has cardio issues and fades in the third round. He believes Lee will push the pace, tire Araújo out, and win by volume. He mentions Lee's training with Tony Kelley and her social media showing hard work.

Paul is cautious, warning that Araújo is more of a wrestler and Lee's takedown defense is her kryptonite. He says it could be a situation where Araújo takes Lee down and holds top control, making it risky. He advises not putting this on a top ticket.

Cody picks Johnson but is hesitant, noting Johnson is a serial 'stunt artist' who finds ways to lose. He acknowledges Johnson's takedown defense is poor and Patrick could take him down. However, he thinks Patrick quit in his last fight and Johnson at least goes out on his shield. He says it's a dogger pass and not a top ticket fight.

Paul leans slightly toward Johnson but is very hesitant. He notes Johnson's pattern of losing fights he should win, but thinks the UFC is giving him a winnable fight against Patrick, who quit in his last outing. He says there are better dogs on the card and it's a pass for him unless weigh-ins change his mind.

Cody picks Hill as a dog, noting her fights are always close and competitive. He thinks Jandiroba's cardio is suspect and she may not be able to maintain takedown pressure for three rounds. He believes Hill can out-volume her on the feet and make it a close decision, though he's not highly confident.

Paul also leans toward Hill, calling it a dogger pass. He notes Hill's volume striking and that Jandiroba struggles to get takedowns against good grapplers. He thinks if Hill can keep it standing, she wins the volume game. However, he acknowledges Jandiroba's BJJ from top is nasty and she could bank the first two rounds.

Cody picks Candelario as a dog, noting he had him at +225 originally. He thinks Taira is unproven against properly sized flyweights and has never fought outside Japan. He believes Candelario has high-level BJJ and can make it competitive. He plans to line shop and may bet Candelario again.

Paul flips to Taira after Cody's argument about the extra two weeks in Vegas being beneficial. He notes Taira is a 22-year-old prospect who has never fought outside Japan, but the extra time to acclimate could help. He thinks Taira's back-taking ability and body triangle control will be key. He says Cody made him a believer.

Cody is confident in Maximov, comparing him to Jake Shields. He notes Maximov has collegiate wrestling, a BJJ black belt, and a relentless grinding style. He thinks Petroski gasses out due to his muscular build, as seen in losses to Aaron Jeffery and Brian Battle. He believes Maximov will push a pace and grind Petroski down.

Paul takes a shot on Petroski at +380, calling it a price play. He notes Maximov's game is not well-rounded and he struggles to finish. He thinks Petroski has decent wrestling and could be competitive early, but acknowledges he gasses out. He says it's a dangerous bet but the odds are too high to ignore.