Louie Sutherland

1-2
Record
Age / DOB 32
(Feb 08, 1994)
Height 6' 3"
Weight 264 lbs.
Reach 76"
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages
3.75 Sig. Strikes / Min
52.0% Sig. Strike Acc.
7.5 Absorbed / Min
22.0% Strike Defense
4.69 TD Avg / 15 min
33.0% TD Accuracy
0.0% TD Defense
0.0 Sub. / Fight
Win Methods (1)
KO/TKO 0
Submission 0
Decision 1
Loss Methods (2)
KO/TKO 1
Submission 1
Decision 0

Fight History

Result / Opponent
Event & Date
Method/Round
Links
Comments
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tai Tuivasa 0 13 of 22 59% 27 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:42
Louie Sutherland 0 21 of 25 84% 111 of 130 5 of 11 45% 0 2 11:45
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tai Tuivasa 0 6 of 9 66% 8 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Louie Sutherland 0 9 of 12 75% 32 of 38 1 of 4 25% 0 1 3:40
2 Tai Tuivasa 0 3 of 4 75% 9 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Louie Sutherland 0 7 of 7 100% 42 of 48 3 of 4 75% 0 0 4:36
3 Tai Tuivasa 0 4 of 9 44% 10 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:32
Louie Sutherland 0 5 of 6 83% 37 of 44 1 of 3 33% 0 1 3:29
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tai Tuivasa 13 of 22 59% 12 of 21 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 9 5 of 5 6 of 8
Louie Sutherland 21 of 25 84% 15 of 18 0 of 0 6 of 7 7 of 9 4 of 5 10 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tai Tuivasa 6 of 9 66% 5 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 3 2 of 2 3 of 4
Louie Sutherland 9 of 12 75% 7 of 9 0 of 0 2 of 3 2 of 4 4 of 5 3 of 3
2 Tai Tuivasa 3 of 4 75% 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 3 of 3 0 of 0
Louie Sutherland 7 of 7 100% 5 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 5
3 Tai Tuivasa 4 of 9 44% 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 0 3 of 4
Louie Sutherland 5 of 6 83% 3 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 2 3 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 3
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Louie Sutherland vs. Tai Tuivasa

Round 1
The main card opener features a couple of big men in desperate need of a win, in the form of Tuivasa (14-9; 8-9 UFC), who is on a four-fight skid, and Sutherland (10-5; 0-2 UFC), who is winless in two tries in the Octagon. The third man in the cage will be Rich Mitchell. The heavyweights touch gloves, then set up in matchin orthodox stances. Sutherland touches with a calf kick, then another. Sutherland drops levels and rushes forward in search of a takedown. Tuivasa allows himself to be backed up to the fence, where he defends with a front headlock. Sutherland gives up on the takedown and they go back to work on the feet. Sutherland changes levels again and puts Tuivasa on his seat with a double-leg. Tuivasa refuses to concede the takedown, however, scooting on his butt all the way to the fence, grabbing another guillotine and returning to his feet. Tuivasa shucks him off and connects with a flurry of punches on the break. Sutherland is hurt, and Tuivasa nails him with an elbow to the head, followed by a knee. Sutherland grabs hold of Tuivasa and hustles him to the ground with what amounts to a shove, then takes top position. At the midpoint of Round 1, it’s Sutherland on top, dropping short punches and elbows. Tuivasa is working to defend his face and get back to his feet, but Sutherland is heavy on top and very methodical, pulling the Aussie’s base out from under him. Under a minute to go and the Perth crowd grows restive, but Sutherland is plenty active on top, throwing constant punches from half guard. The horn sounds. 10-9 Sutherland.

Round 2
Sutherland lands first with an inside low kick. Tuivasa responds with a leg kick of his own. Sutherland shoots for a takedown but Tuivasa uses an underhook to stand him back up as they collide with the fence. Sutherland re-shoots and gets the takedown. Tuivasa powers to his feet and Sutherland tosses him back down, then follows, landing in side control. Sutherland is heavy on top, dropping short punches to the body while keeping within striking distance of an arm-triangle choke. Sutherland grinds an elbow into Tuivasa’s head. The partisan crowd is chanting “stand ‘em up” despite Sutherland being in side control, but he slides into full mount. Sutherland continues to deliver a steady stream of short punches and elbows while moving back to side control. Tuivasa stands back up with 90 seconds left, but Sutherland drives him back to the ground a moment later. Tuivasa is turtled at the base of the fence, controlling Sutherland’s left hand with both of his own. Sutherland sinks a single hook, moves to Tuivasa’s back and appears to be hunting for a choke. Tuivasa bucks straight into a guilllotine attempt a few seconds before the horn. 10-9 Sutherland.

Round 3
Sutherland is almost certainly up two rounds to none as the heavies come out for Round 3. Both men actually look pretty fresh considering what a grueling fight it’s been, but Sutherland quickly gets another easy takedown. “The Vanilla Gorilla” sets up in side control, and Mitchell is warning him to stay busy. Sutherland is staying busy, as he did in Rounds 1 and 2, throwing a steady stream of strikes while looking to gradually move to an even more dominant position. Tuivasa bucks, scrambles and gets to all fours, where Sutherland moves to back control, but Tuivasa goes to his back and regains half guard. Sutherland is heavy on top, pelting Tuivasa with little right hands, flattening him out and looking to pass his guard. With a minute to go, Mitchell stands them up. Sutherland tries some kind of spin or roll, collides with a Tuivasa knee and falls to his back. Tuivasa pounces and taked top position, hammering Sutherland with a couple of big punches, then nails him with a flagrantly illegal knee to the head while they are grounded. A few seconds later the final horn sounds, while Mitchell instructs the judges to deduct a point from Tuivasa for the foul. 10-8 Sutherland (30-26 Sutherland).

The Official Result
Louie Sutherland def. Tai Tuivasa via Unanimous Decision (30-26, 30-26, 30-26)
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

Angelo picks Tai Tuivasa confidently, calling Louie Sutherland a modern-day Tank Abbott with no skill. He believes Tai's power and experience will overwhelm Sutherland, who was knocked out by Brando Peričić. He hopes Tai's cardio is better after a long layoff and expects a finish.

No odds yet; hopes for affordable line to bet.
"Tai's going to be the pick. I hope Tai has a little more cardio than he did in his last fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

Big Brady picks Tai Tuivasa to win by decision, though he acknowledges Tuivasa's long losing streak and lack of career seriousness. He notes that Sutherland is a step down in competition and that Tuivasa should win, but expects the fight to get 'greasy' and go the distance. Brady is hesitant due to Tuivasa's recent form.

Tuivasa by decision
"I'll go Tuivasa by decision, though."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

Cody picks Tuivasa by knockout, noting Sutherland's poor UFC performances and likely lack of drug testing. He believes Tuivasa's power and durability will be too much for Sutherland.

KO prop
"Tai for all of Tai's faults. It's like if you're gonna knock him out, you got to probably be a top guy... I do feel like Tai gets back in the win column."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Apr 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

Daniel Vreeland picks Tai Tuivasa to snap his losing streak, but is hesitant due to the risk of laying chalk on a six-fight skid. He believes Tuivasa's experience and power give him the edge, but warns that a loss would be embarrassing for bettors.

"I think it's comeback season, my friends. ... give me Tu Iasa to snap the big skid and uh to get back on track."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)
No clear pick

Tuivasa has a striking advantage but his ground game is terrible. Sutherland is not a good offensive wrestler but could still take Tuivasa down. Tuivasa's odds have declined and offer no value. The fight likely ends inside the distance but no bet recommended.

"It's a very tricky fight whichever way you approach this one from a betting point of view."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Louie Sutherland

The host picks the underdog Sutherland, believing his speed and grappling advantage will allow him to take Tuivasa down and grind out a decision. He notes Tuivasa's poor form and lack of investment, while Sutherland is more serious. The host acknowledges Tuivasa's knockout power but thinks Sutherland can avoid it.

Decision win
"I'm going to go Sutherland here. Uh, and Sutherland by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

Paul picks Tuivasa, agreeing that Sutherland is a step down and that Tuivasa's KO prop is fair. He notes Sutherland's deflated physique and poor durability.

KO prop
"Tai Knockout is like very fair, I think. Like, like we know Tai's not very unlikely to be get a sub be getting a sub in this fight and is like his his KO props like minus 115. It's basically a pickle."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

The MMA Guru picks Tai Tuivasa, believing he is more built for heavyweight and will win a messy brawl. He notes Tuivasa's heart and ability to get back up from bad positions. He thinks Junior Tafa is tailor-made for Tuivasa and predicts a first-round win.

win in round one
"I'm going to go Tai Tuivasa coming in at 264. He's pulling off a big weight cut here um for this one. I'm going to go with Tai Tuivasa getting the job done."
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Louie Sutherland 0 9 of 18 50% 9 of 18 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:40
Brando Peričić 0 19 of 26 73% 34 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Louie Sutherland 0 9 of 18 50% 9 of 18 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:40
Brando Peričić 0 19 of 26 73% 34 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Louie Sutherland 9 of 18 50% 5 of 14 2 of 2 2 of 2 7 of 15 2 of 3 0 of 0
Brando Peričić 19 of 26 73% 13 of 20 6 of 6 0 of 0 5 of 9 9 of 10 5 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Louie Sutherland 9 of 18 50% 5 of 14 2 of 2 2 of 2 7 of 15 2 of 3 0 of 0
Brando Peričić 19 of 26 73% 13 of 20 6 of 6 0 of 0 5 of 9 9 of 10 5 of 7
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Brando Pericic vs. Louie Sutherland
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pericic (-270); Sutherland (+220)

Round 1
Marc Goddard is the referee. Pericic with a front kick. Sutherland lands a right and then unleashes a barrage of punches as he blitzes forward. Pericic counters with a knee and Sutherland looks for a takedown, which he briefly secures. Pericic hustles to his feet in short order. Back at range, Sutherland lands a right and then explodes for a takedown across the cage. Pericic is right back to his feet once again. Sutherland rushes in with punches, but Pericic answers with a series of knees and power punches, and Sutherland hits the canvas. Sutherland covers up on all fours and eats a flurry of strikes. Goddard is taking a close look but the Brit gets to his feet. It’s only a momentary reprieve, however, as Pericic pushes his man back down to the floor.
Sutherland shells up, and the Aussie unleashes a few more unanswered shots before Goddard waves off the fight.
That’s back-to-back first-round finishes for Pericic in his first two UFC appearances.

The Official Result
Brando Pericic def. Louie Sutherland via TKO (Punches) R1 1:48
Expert Picks (12)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Brando Peričić

Angelo picks Brando Peričić based on his professional kickboxing background, athleticism, and size. He admits both fighters are relatively untested at UFC level, but assumes the faster, cleaner, more athletic kickboxer will win. He notes the -260 odds are probably fair but expresses caution due to lack of data.

odds comment: -260 probably worth it but cautious
"I'm basically blindly picking Brando here. ... I have to assume that the faster, the cleaner, the bigger, the more athletic professional kickboxer is going to win here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Brando Peričić

Big Brady confidently picks Brando Peričić, stating that Peričić has actual skills while Louie Sutherland doesn't seem good at anything. He notes that Peričić trains at City Kickboxing, has good striking, can mix in takedowns, and has good ground and pound. He expects Peričić to pick apart Sutherland and win a decision, though he warns that heavyweight fights can get greasy.

Brando Peričić by decision
"Give me the guy that has skills. And it's not too often we see guys in the heavyweight division with some skills behind him."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Brando Peričić

Cody picks Peričić, noting his kickboxing base and Sutherland's lack of wrestling. He expects a finish but warns about jet lag.

"Barono Perich not going to need it because it ain't going to get out of the first round."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Mar 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Brando Peričić

Connor leans toward Peričić, agreeing that his straight punches and size advantage should beat Sutherland's brawling. He notes that Sutherland has never been beaten by striking, only by wrestling, but Peričić's technical edge and clinch work could be decisive. Connor also warns that Peričić is raw and could get caught.

Odds comment: Peričić opened +160, now -255; Sutherland opened -185, now +215.
"Yeah, I think there's actually some flex in Perisic's game. In addition to him just being like a bigger, more technical striker."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Brando Peričić

Daniel leans Peričić but is not high on him. He thinks Peričić has an edge on the mat and in the clinch, but the line is too high. He expects the fight to go over 1.5 rounds and possibly to decision. He notes Sutherland's toughness and durability.

over 1.5 rounds
"I can see this fight going to decision. I can see it going over 1.5 rounds."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Brando Peričić

Daniel Vreeland picks Brando Peričić to win by submission or ground-and-pound. He notes Peričić's edge on the mat and Sutherland's inability to get back up if taken down. He expects Peričić to take Sutherland down and finish him.

"I'm going to pick Peric to come out here and either tap this guy out or pound this guy out."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked Mar 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)
No clear pick

Peričić is the better striker but has unknown cardio and grappling. Sutherland is limited but known quantity. Too many unknowns to bet either side at the current odds.

"The money line is an easy pass for me because I wouldn't take Pericic with the unanswered questions over him, but I wouldn't bet Sutherland either."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Brando Peričić

James picks Brando Peričić, but admits bias as he knows him personally. He thinks Brando's power and speed will lead to a knockout, though he worries about the long flight from New Zealand. He expects Brando to win early.

Brando Peričić by KO
"I got Brando winning this fight via knockout."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Brando Peričić

The host picks Brando Peričić by knockout but is hesitant due to the low level of the fight. He acknowledges Sutherland's well-roundedness and potential to grapple, but believes Peričić's power will be the difference. He expects Peričić to land big shots when Sutherland shoots for takedowns, leading to a knockout. However, he advises against betting due to low confidence.

"We'll go Peric and Peric by knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Brando Peričić

Paul thinks Peričić's striking and size advantage will be too much for Sutherland, who has poor takedown defense and a soft physique. He expects a first-round finish.

"I think he's going to get the job done one way or another. So, it's going to be uh Peric, my Croatian brethren, now living in Australia to uh to get the job done."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Brando Peričić

The MMA Guru picks Brando Peričić over Louie Sutherland. He notes Sutherland has physically declined since his regional days and is less athletic, while Peričić is more well-rounded and stronger. He expects Peričić to grapple and get a ground-and-pound TKO in the first or second round, though he warns about Sutherland's low kick that broke Walker's leg.

first or second round ground and pound TKO
"I'm going to go with Brando Peric, the Balkan Bear, getting this one done by first or second round ground and pound TKOR is what I think is going to happen here."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Mar 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Brando Peričić

Zane picks Brando Peričić, noting that he is a straight puncher with fundamental striking (jab, one-twos, low kicks) while Sutherland is a loopy hook brawler. He believes Peričić's style is a nightmare for Sutherland, but acknowledges that Sutherland could land one big hook and win. Zane also mentions Peričić's clinch work with elbows and knees as an advantage.

Odds comment: Peričić opened +160, now -255; Sutherland opened -185, now +215.
"I'm going to take Perisic, just straight, straight puncher versus loopy puncher."
UFC 321
Oct 25, 2025
Submission R1 1:24
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Valter Walker 0 5 of 5 100% 7 of 7 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:31
Louie Sutherland 0 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Valter Walker 0 5 of 5 100% 7 of 7 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:31
Louie Sutherland 0 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Valter Walker 5 of 5 100% 0 of 0 2 of 2 3 of 3 5 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Louie Sutherland 3 of 5 60% 1 of 1 0 of 2 2 of 2 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Valter Walker 5 of 5 100% 0 of 0 2 of 2 3 of 3 5 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Louie Sutherland 3 of 5 60% 1 of 1 0 of 2 2 of 2 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Louie Sutherland vs. Valter Walker
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Walker (-310), Sutherland (+250)

Round 1
Tonight could be considered moving night at the UFC’s muddled heavyweight division, with four of the 13 encounters booked in the weightiest category observed by the promotion. Having landed three heel hooks in a row, Walker (14-1, 3-1 UFC) wants little more than to make that four straight—a record among anyone to set foot in the Octagon—and to do so will have to hand Sutherland (10-3, 0-0 UFC) his first defeat inside the distance. The heavy hitters with win rates before the final bell at 70% or higher collide under the watchful eye of referee Kerry Hatley, bumping fists prior to engaging.
Walker slides his way forward to throw a low kick, and Sutherland fires back with his own body kick. Walker keeps slinging kicks including one up the middle, and Sutherland turns his hips into one that lands with an audible thud. Sutherland sits down on a crisp right hand as Walker is coming in, shaking him up but not stopping him from completing a double-leg takedown. Sutherland shells up on his back as he takes punches, and
Walker rolls for his patented heel hook. The Brit defends the leglock attempt, spinning all the way around to alleviate some pressure. The Russian by way of Brazil follows him the entire rotation, completing the submission while “The Vanilla Gorilla” is still turning. With the heel hook locked in all the way, Sutherland has no choice but to surrender for the first time in his career.
Just like that, “The Foot Hunter” has now racked up four straight submissions of this type in the Octagon, tied for the most for any fighter in company history along with Rousimar Palhares while extending his own record for the most in a row. Just four wins into his UFC tenure and the GOR MMA fighter is already in the top five for the most submissions performed in UFC heavyweight history. Only Stefan Struve (six), Alexey Oleynik (seven) and Frank Mir (eight) have landed more. Most impressive.

The Official Result
Valter Walker def. Louie Sutherland R1 1:24 via Submission (Heel Hook)
Expert Picks (10)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Valter Walker

Angelo picks Valter Walker, noting his physical transformation and three consecutive heel hook finishes in the UFC. He believes Walker's wrestling and submission threat will be too much for Luis Saldana, who appears to have lost muscle mass after coming off steroids. Angelo thinks the minus 300 line is reasonable given Saldana's diminished physicality.

The minus 300, minus 310, that doesn't seem crazy considering Luis clearly no longer on the sauce
"Valter at this point in his career is an actual UFC fighter. The physical transformation he has gone through is genuinely a testament to his work ethic. He's going to be the pick. The minus 300, minus 310, that doesn't seem crazy."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Valter Walker

Big Brady confidently picks Valter Walker, citing his improvements, size (6'6", 27 years old), and elite wrestling and submission skills, particularly heel hooks. He dismisses Louie Sutherland as a bottom-tier heavyweight with no standout attributes. Brady expects Walker to get an early takedown and secure a first-round submission, making it four in a row.

Walker by first round submission
"Valter Walker is going to go for a takedown early on in the fight. And he's going to go for a heel hook. And I think there's a good chance to get it. So I'm going Valter Walker. Valter Walker by first round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Valter Walker

Cody picks Valter Walker, noting that Sutherland has never been finished but has faced lower-level competition. He believes Walker's wrestling and submission game will be too much, especially if he focuses on takedowns rather than diving for heel hooks. Cody suggests a Walker submission prop at plus 140 as a better bet than the heavy favorite line.

Walker by submission (+140)
"Walker sub I see out there at plus 140. Other places it's dropped down to like plus 115. I may take just the best price available on Walker sub and call it a day."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 24, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Valter Walker

Connor picks Walker, expecting him to shoot takedowns and grapple. He notes that Sutherland is a fearless brawler but has no answer for wrestling, as anyone who has wrestled him has succeeded. Connor also highlights Walker's recent streak of heel hook submissions, suggesting Sutherland is vulnerable to that. He acknowledges Walker is not good but believes he is a bad matchup for Sutherland.

Walker is a heavy favorite at -350.
"I think this is probably a bridge too far for Louis Sutherland. ... It seems very likely that Walker will just shoot on him and drop for a leg and then Sutherland will have no clue what to do about that."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Oct 23, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Valter Walker

Daniel Vreeland is confident in Walker's submission skills, especially his heel hooks, but is hesitant to lay -335 on a guy who lost to Lucas Brzeski. He thinks Walker's grappling will be too much for Sutherland, who is a brawler with questionable conditioning. He predicts Walker will win, possibly by submission, but calls it a 'pure pick' rather than a betting recommendation.

wins by submission (heel hook)
"As a pure pick, I'm going to take Valter Ver to win this fight and possibly collect another leg."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Valter Walker

Lucrative James picks Valter Walker confidently, noting his size advantage and ability to get takedowns. He references Sutherland's recent loss to Slim Trabelsi via grappling, and believes Walker can replicate that with his heel hook threat. He expects Walker to win by decision or submission.

"I got Vult Walker all day here. He's the bigger man. I think he's going to be able to get takedowns on Luis Southerntherland here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Valter Walker

The host considers Sutherland a mediocre opponent who could find success if he avoids Walker's early heel hook danger, but he doesn't think Sutherland can avoid it. He predicts Walker will add another heel hook submission win.

submission (heel hook)
"I look for Walker to add another heel hook submission win to his record."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Valter Walker

Paul agrees with Cody, adding that Sutherland's physique and past steroid use are concerns. He notes that Sutherland looked deflated at UFC weigh-ins and may not be as durable without enhancements. Paul believes Walker's youth and improvement will lead to a win, likely by submission.

"for me it's a Walker play. But uh like anything, the longer this thing goes is when I'll start to sweat it."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 21, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Valter Walker

The MMA Guru picks Valter Walker by submission, specifically a leg-lock or heel hook in the first round. He believes Walker is being given layup opponents and that Luis Saldivar (the opponent mentioned, though the transcript says Luis Saldivar but the fight is Valter Walker vs Louie Sutherland; likely a mix-up in the transcript) is not good and looks different from his Tapology picture. He expects Walker to go for the easiest path to victory and get a quick submission.

first-round submission (heel hook)
"I'm going to go with Volkanovski getting a signature leg-lock submission over Luis Saldivar."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 24, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Valter Walker

Zane agrees, noting that even if Walker doesn't get another heel hook, he will be an annoying wrestler and grinder. He describes Sutherland as a 'meathead to the core' who will struggle with Walker's grappling. Zane also points out that Walker's losses have come against fighters who are not 'heavyweight enough' to be overwhelmed by his style.

"I'm gonna pick Walker. He'll shoot takedowns. He'll go grappling stuff and I just have to assume at this point in his career, Sutherland has seen none of it."
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Louie Sutherland

Angelo picks Louie Sutherland over Justin Tafa, reasoning that Sutherland is more well-rounded with movement and takedowns, while Tafa is a one-dimensional striker. He acknowledges Tafa's power and Sutherland's susceptibility to being hit, but believes Sutherland's range management and ability to mix in takedowns will be the difference. He compares Sutherland's movement to Jared Vanderaa's win over Tafa.

"I'm going to pick Louis Sutherland here. Like he is the more well-rounded guy. Justin Tafa is by far the better striker when it comes to pure technique. Probably the more powerful striker as well. And Louisie gets hit. So yeah, I mean if you want to do 1 plus 1 equals two, we can do this a couple different ways."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Louie Sutherland

Big Brady leans toward Louie Sutherland to win by decision. He is disgusted by the fight quality but thinks Sutherland's cardio, clinch work, and durability could be factors if Tafa doesn't get an early KO. He notes Tafa fades in later rounds.

"I'm leaning ever so slightly Louis Sutherland. But if you bet on this fight, you probably need to go to prison."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Sep 23, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Louie Sutherland

Cody leans toward Sutherland, citing his durability and momentum on a four-fight winning streak. He notes Tafa has durability issues and has been outworked in longer fights. He thinks Sutherland's reach and ability to outwork Tafa if it goes past the first round give him an edge, but calls it a greasy 50/50 fight.

"I'm off the Justin Tough of bandwagon altogether. And for Louisie, again, not a world beater by any stretch."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Louie Sutherland

Connor also picks Sutherland, emphasizing Tafa's terrible record and inability to win outside the first round. He notes that Sutherland has never been knocked out and is capable of throwing power combos and low kicks. Connor thinks Sutherland's pressure and durability will overwhelm Tafa, who is purely a reactive striker with no control.

"I think I have to pick Louis Sutherland because you know what hasn't happened to Louis Sutherland so far in his career? It's never been knocked out."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Sep 19, 2025 (9 days before fight)
No clear pick

James does not make a clear pick, stating he would lean toward the underdog Sutherland but is not confident. He notes Sutherland has a cardio advantage and could win via wrestling, but doubts Sutherland will implement that game plan. He prefers to pass on the fight or consider an over 1.5 rounds prop.

over 1.5 rounds
"I tend to lean that side just because he's an underdog. I feel like in this fight, you just bet the underdog. But I'm most certainly going to be passing on this fight, boys."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

The host is not a big fan of Tafa's one-dimensional style but thinks this fight suits it. He expects Tafa to shuck off takedown attempts, get back to his feet if taken down, and eventually land big shots to knock Sutherland out cold.

win by knockout
"I am not a big fan of Toffa given his one-dimensional approach to fights, but this is the type of fight for that one-dimensional style to play out and actually be successful. Look for Tafa to shuck off most of the takedown attempts coming from Sutherland. Work back quickly back to his feet if he does get taken down and then eventually uncork those big shots, finding the chin of Sutherland and putting him out cold."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Louie Sutherland

The Guru picks Louie Sutherland (Louie Sutherland) as a hate pick against Justin Tafa, whom he criticizes as overweight and overrated. He believes Sutherland's power and Bellator experience will lead to a first-round knockout, as Tafa's career is on the line.

first round KO
"I'm going to go with Luis Southerntherland getting this one done."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Louie Sutherland

Zane picks Sutherland, noting that Tafa is a reactive striker who throws one big punch at a time and has poor durability. He believes Sutherland's willingness to blitz with power combos and his ability to go past the first round give him the edge. Zane points out that Tafa has never won a fight that went past two minutes, while Sutherland has experience in longer fights.

"I think I have to pick Louis Sutherland because you know what hasn't happened to Louis Sutherland so far in his career? It's never been knocked out."