Fight card

UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates

May 02, 2026 RAC Arena Perth, Australia
Fight 1 VS Welterweight Completed
Carlos Prates

Carlos Prates W

24-7
TKO R3 3:17

Jack Della Maddalena

Moneyline
Pinnacle +651
KO/TKO
Unibet +275
Submission
Unibet +1600
Decision
Unibet +370

Carlos Prates

Moneyline
FanDuel -104
KO/TKO
FanDuel +165
Submission
FanDuel +2200
Decision
BetRivers +700
Fighter Stats

Jack Della Maddalena

Age29
Height5' 11"
Reach73.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Carlos Prates

Age32
Height6' 1"
Reach78.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Career Averages - Jack Della Maddalena

5.57SLpM
51.0%Str. Acc.
3.84SApM
63.0%Str. Def.
0.13TD Avg
10.0%TD Acc.
64.0%TD Def.
0.1Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Carlos Prates

3.77SLpM
55.0%Str. Acc.
4.53SApM
47.0%Str. Def.
0.21TD Avg
100.0%TD Acc.
80.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Angelo picks Jack Della Maddalena, citing his volume, jab, and clean boxing. He notes that Carlos Prates has power and variety but has been hit by jabs before (e.g., Trevin Giles, Ian Garry). He believes JDM's boxing and potential wrestling backup plan will secure the win, though he expects a tense fight with Prates having moments.

Odds mentioned as -110; no bet size.
"JDM is the pick. These odds are crazy. It's like minus 110."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Big Brady picks Carlos Prates to win by third-round knockout. He describes Prates as a 'moment winner' with devastating power, noting he has knocked out durable fighters like Leon Edwards and Geoff Neal. Brady acknowledges Jack Della Maddalena's volume and durability but believes Prates will land a big shot as Jack pressures forward, leading to a knockout.

Prates by KO, round 3
"Give me Prachazka here. I'll take Prachazka to win this fight by third round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Cody picks Jack Della Maddalena as a slight underdog, believing his superior volume and output in later rounds will overcome Carlos Prates' power. He notes Prates may lack drive after making money and that Jack's durability and home crowd advantage are key factors.

"I get Jack Matalena because he's slight plus money."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Apr 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Daniel Vreeland leans towards Carlos Prates due to his more versatile striking arsenal and knockout power. He notes that JDM's take-one-to-give-one mentality could be dangerous against a finisher like Prates. He also mentions the historical trend of former champions having a letdown performance after a title loss.

"I have a slight lean towards Protest, but like J if JDM wins this fight, I'm not going to be surprised if Protest puts him out."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Lean picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Carlos Prates

Prates is a slight favorite and the better striker: more diverse, better defensively, takes less damage. Maddalena is one-dimensional, struggles against good strikers (e.g., Belal Muhammad, Kevin Holland). This is likely a stand-up fight. Home advantage for Maddalena is a concern, but Prates should win a decision or KO.

"I think Prates is the better striker... in the even money odds range, it's a no-brainer to kind of lean towards him."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Lucrative James picks Carlos Prates to win via knockout. He believes Prates has a more diverse striking arsenal and better fight IQ, allowing him to get reads faster and land the kill shot. He acknowledges his bias as he knows Prates personally but states the pick is objective based on tape study.

"I lean Carlos as a more of a knockout artist... I think Carlos is going to win the fight and get a title shot next."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

The host sides with Prates, believing his Muay Thai will be more dangerous and he is more likely to get a finish. He expects Prates to cut Maddalena up and win by knockout. The host notes Maddalena's susceptibility to cuts and that Prates has a reach advantage. He thinks the line will move further towards Prates.

Knockout win
"I have to side to the pace side. I think his Muay Thai is going to be a little bit more dangerous here. And I think he's more prone to be able to get a finish compared to …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Paul picks Carlos Prates, calling him a 'Paul Shag guy' and citing his power and ability to win moments. He questions Jack's ability to handle Prates' reach and power, and notes Prates' unorthodox lifestyle might help with time zone adjustment.

"Prattis for me, Jack Dela for you."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

The MMA Guru picks Jack Della Maddalena, believing he is a level above Prates in striking. He notes JDM's education, body work, and ability to avoid clean shots. He predicts a TKO in round three or four via body shots. He acknowledges Prates' power but thinks JDM will maintain composure.

TKO in round three or four, body shots
"I'm going to go with Jack Della Maddalena by round three or four TKO over Carlos Prochazka."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Fight 2 VS Lightweight Completed
Quillan Salkilld

Quillan Salkilld W

12-1
TKO R1 3:29

Beneil Dariush

Moneyline
DraftKings +360
KO/TKO
BetRivers +900
Submission
BetWay +1400
Decision
FanDuel +950

Quillan Salkilld

Moneyline
Caesars -375
KO/TKO
FanDuel -140
Submission
BetRivers +800
Decision
FanDuel +600
Fighter Stats

Beneil Dariush

Age37
Height5' 10"
Reach72.0"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Quillan Salkilld

Age26
Height6' 0"
Reach75.0"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Beneil Dariush

3.78SLpM
49.0%Str. Acc.
2.62SApM
57.0%Str. Def.
2.11TD Avg
38.0%TD Acc.
82.0%TD Def.
0.8Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Quillan Salkilld

5.16SLpM
57.0%Str. Acc.
3.24SApM
44.0%Str. Def.
7.95TD Avg
36.0%TD Acc.
90.0%TD Def.
0.8Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Quillan Salkilld

Angelo picks Quillan Salkilld, acknowledging that Beneil Dariush is past his prime with a compromised chin and cardio. He believes Salkilld is the better striker and should win, but hopes Dariush doesn't get knocked out badly. He notes that if Salkilld tries to grapple, Dariush might have an advantage.

"Quan's going to be the pick. I'll be rooting hard for Ben Darus though."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Quillan Salkilld

Big Brady picks Quillan Salkilld to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Beneil Dariush has elite skills but a completely compromised chin, and that Salkilld has power and has knocked out durable opponents. Brady believes Dariush will get touched early and finished, especially given his age and weight cut issues.

Salkilld by KO, round 1
"Give me Quillin Sal Khill to win this fight and win it by first round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Quillan Salkilld

Cody picks Salkilld by knockout, citing Dariush's declining durability and history of getting knocked out. He notes Salkilld's power and length, and believes Dariush's chin is no longer reliable.

KO prop
"Kill him and Sfield uh wins by knockout. That's my official pick."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Quillan Salkilld

Daniel Vreeland picks Quillan Salkilld, believing he is catching Beneil Dariush at a good time. He notes Salkilld's well-rounded skills and momentum, while Dariush has shown vulnerability to knockouts and may be past his prime. He expects a competitive fight but sees Salkilld's damage as decisive.

"I think Quillin's catching him at a good time. Kind of a big favorite, kind of a big price for my liking, but I'm going to pick Quillin South to win this fight."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)
No clear pick

Odds feel very wide; Salkilld is a big favorite but unproven. Dariush is declining but skilled. The fight spread on Dariush (+3.5) and over 1.5 rounds are interesting but not committed. No bet on moneyline; dog or pass.

Considering Dariush +3.5 fight spread and over 1.5 rounds
"I think it's dog or pass, Dariush or nothing. I'm not going to be betting this fight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Quillan Salkilld

Lucrative James picks Quillan Salkilld to win via knockout in round one. He cites Beneil Dariush's declining chin and recent knockout losses, and believes the UFC is setting up Salkilld as a prospect. He notes Dariush's weight cut issues and desire to move up to welterweight.

"I think Quillin's going to knock him out, boys. That's all I really have to say."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Quillan Salkilld

The host picks Salkilld due to his youth, durability, and well-rounded skills. He expects Salkilld to strike first and find a knockout, likely early in round one. The host notes Dariush's chin issues and recent knockout loss, making it hard to trust him despite his grappling prowess.

Knockout win; round one finish
"I think if Salkild comes out there striking first, striking heavy, striking focused, he should be able to find that big shot to to put uh Darush away here. So, um I'll go Sil. I'll go Sill by …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Quillan Salkilld

Paul agrees with Cody, stating Dariush has all the skills but can't take a punch anymore. He highlights Salkilld's power and the fact that Dariush has been knocked out repeatedly, making Salkilld by KO the likely outcome.

KO prop
"I can't agree more. I mean, Benil Der has got all the other skills... but his ability to take a punch isn't quite there anymore."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Quillan Salkilld

The MMA Guru picks Quillan Salkilld, citing his first-round finishing potential and the pattern of younger athletes beating Dariush. He notes Dariush's recent chin issues and believes Salkilld will get a first-round TKO. He acknowledges Salkilld's grappling skills but expects a striking finish.

first round TKO
"I'm going to go with Quillin Sal Caged getting this one done. TKO early first round."
Fight Notes
BR
brian 1 month ago

Maybe the KO is value -162

Fight 3 VS Flyweight Completed
Steve Erceg

Steve Erceg W

14-4
Decision R3 5:00

Tim Elliott

Moneyline
BetWay +210
KO/TKO
BetWay +1000
Submission
BetRivers +900
Decision
BetRivers +475

Steve Erceg

Moneyline
Pinnacle -192
KO/TKO
BetRivers +1200
Submission
BetRivers +510
Decision
FanDuel +125
Fighter Stats

Tim Elliott

Age39
Height5' 7"
Reach66.0"
Weight125 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Steve Erceg

Age30
Height5' 8"
Reach68.0"
Weight125 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Tim Elliott

3.37SLpM
44.0%Str. Acc.
2.65SApM
57.0%Str. Def.
3.71TD Avg
47.0%TD Acc.
59.0%TD Def.
1.1Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Steve Erceg

4.0SLpM
45.0%Str. Acc.
3.79SApM
52.0%Str. Def.
1.15TD Avg
27.0%TD Acc.
62.0%TD Def.
0.4Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Steve Erceg

Angelo picks Steve Erceg despite being a known hater, because he believes Erceg is the cleaner, more technical grappler. He thinks Erceg's durability and wrestling will overcome Tim Elliott's pressure. However, he criticizes the -400 odds as too high and finds it hard to connect the dots.

Odds mentioned as -400; no bet recommendation.
"Steve Ursg is the pick. Four to one though. Four to one. It's I mean seems a little dicey to me, but I get it."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Steve Erceg

Big Brady picks Steve Erceg to win by third-round submission. He believes Erceg is the better striker and has underrated grappling, while Tim Elliott slows down and has poor submission defense (submitted six times). Brady expects Elliott to be competitive early but fade, allowing Erceg to catch a late submission.

Erceg by submission, round 3
"Give me Erceg to win this fight by third-round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Apr 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Steve Erceg

Cody picks Erceg but is hesitant, noting Erceg's inconsistency and chin issues. He believes Erceg's takedown defense and counter grappling will be key, and that Elliott's age and travel fatigue may work against him.

"I think Erceg is a better live target than prefing at minus 210. He's going to be the pick for me, though."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Steve Erceg

Daniel Vreeland picks Steve Erceg, expecting him to take over in the later rounds. He notes Tim Elliott's funky style and early-round danger but believes Erceg's cardio and submission threat will prevail. He also mentions Elliott's jet lag complaints as a potential factor.

"I think Steve Ersk takes over the latter part of this fight and either wins by submission or decision."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Steve Erceg

Erceg has every advantage: home crowd, younger, better striker, better grappler. Elliott has poor striking, bad takedown defense, and is weak off his back. Erceg went five rounds with Pantoja, so submission risk is low. Surprised Erceg isn't a bigger favorite; tempted to bet straight.

"I would be very surprised if he were to lose this... he's got basically every advantage you could possibly want over Tim Elliott."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Steve Erceg

Lucrative James picks Steve Erceg to win via submission in round three. He expects Tim Elliott to start strong but fade, allowing Erceg to take over in later rounds with superior cardio and grappling. He references Erceg's past performances where he dominated late rounds.

"I will go with Steve Ursig to win this fight via submission in round three as my official prediction."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Steve Erceg

The host picks Erceg, believing his Muay Thai and BJJ will nullify Elliott's grappling. He expects Erceg to land more damage on the feet and win a decision, possibly catching Elliott in a submission. The host notes Elliott's value but thinks Erceg is the more skilled fighter.

Decision win; possible submission
"I'm going to pick Ersig. I'll keep my eye on the line throughout this week. Uh, but I feel like Erskig will end up landing more damage. I think he could potentially get a submission of his own …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Steve Erceg

Paul picks Erceg, emphasizing his strong takedown defense and performance against top competition. He notes Elliott's age and travel issues, and believes Erceg will edge out a close decision in Australia.

"Steve Urs makes a lot more sense and I think it's going to be a very close competitive fight goes to the scorecards in Australia that they're going to edge it for so that's just my take on …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Tim Elliott

The MMA Guru picks Tim Elliott after initially considering Steve Erceg. He worries about Erceg's inconsistency, citing the Ode Osbourne fight, and believes Elliott's craftiness will lead to a split decision win. He thinks Erceg may fumble in the big moment.

decision win 29-28
"I'm going to go with Tim Elliott getting this one done by decision win 29-28."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Marwan Rahiki

Marwan Rahiki W

9-0
TKO R1 2:47
Fight 4 VS Featherweight Completed

Marwan Rahiki

Moneyline
Caesars -625
KO/TKO
FanDuel -160
Submission
BetRivers +400
Decision
BetRivers +750

Ollie Schmid

Moneyline
FanDuel +530
KO/TKO
BetWay +900
Submission
BetWay +2200
Decision
BetRivers +1900
Fighter Stats

Marwan Rahiki

Age24
Height5' 8"
Reach72"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Ollie Schmid

Age25
Height6' 0"
Reach71"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Marwan Rahiki

7.73SLpM
52.0%Str. Acc.
6.33SApM
56.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
100.0%TD Def.
0.9Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Ollie Schmid

0.0SLpM
0.0%Str. Acc.
0.0SApM
0.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
0.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (5)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Marwan Rahiki

Big Brady picks Marwan Rahiki to win by first-round knockout. He dismisses Ollie Schmid's skills, noting that Schmid was finished by Demsey Gillies, which caps his ceiling. Brady expects Rahiki to be a massive favorite and predicts an early finish.

Rahiki by KO, round 1
"Marwan Khadzhiev by first-round knockout for me."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Marwan Rahiki

Cody picks Rahiki, noting his relentless cardio and striking volume. He believes Rahiki will overwhelm Schmid, who is a short-notice replacement with limited experience.

"Rahiki looks like a good prospect who's got infinite amount of cardio and very very volatile striking offense... I think he runs right through Ollie Schmidt."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Marwan Rahiki

Daniel Vreeland confidently picks Marwan Rahiki to win by exciting finish. He praises Rahiki's exciting style and believes he will overcome Ollie Schmid, who is a late replacement. He notes that Rahiki leaves openings but expects him to extend his win streak.

"I think that Marlon Rahiki is gonna extend the win streak. I think he's gonna get a very exciting finish."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Marwan Rahiki

Paul picks Rahiki, agreeing that he is a massive favorite. He notes Rahiki's cardio and pressure, and believes he will finish Schmid early.

"Rahiki... he's going to be a massive favorite. What do we do with this fight? There's nothing you can do."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Marwan Rahiki

The MMA Guru picks Marwan Rahiki, noting he is a -800 favorite. He praises Rahiki's recovery and action-fighting style, while criticizing Ollie Schmid's record and short-notice replacement. He believes Rahiki will find a home for his strikes.

"Um minus 800 for Marouan Rahoui. I've been a fan of Rahoui."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Fight 5 VS Heavyweight Completed
Brando Peričić

Brando Peričić W

7-1
KO R2 3:44

Shamil Gaziev

Moneyline
Betfair Exchange +116
KO/TKO
FanDuel +300
Submission
Unibet +510
Decision
FanDuel +850

Brando Peričić

Moneyline
Pinnacle -109
KO/TKO
BetRivers +114
Submission
FanDuel +2500
Decision
FanDuel +2000
Fighter Stats

Shamil Gaziev

Age36
Height6' 4"
Reach78.0"
Weight265 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Brando Peričić

Age31
Height6' 5"
Reach79"
Weight245 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Shamil Gaziev

2.62SLpM
47.0%Str. Acc.
3.97SApM
45.0%Str. Def.
0.93TD Avg
30.0%TD Acc.
83.0%TD Def.
0.3Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Brando Peričić

12.91SLpM
64.0%Str. Acc.
3.23SApM
55.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
80.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Brando Peričić

Angelo picks Brando Peričić, relying on his athleticism and striking. He acknowledges Shamil Gaziev's wrestling potential but believes Brando's takedown defense will hold up. He notes that if Brando defends early takedowns, he will outstrike Gaziev. However, he admits uncertainty about Brando's takedown defense at a high level.

"I'm going to pick Brando. I'm I'm actually more confident in that than I should be given the fact that I've never really seen him defend takedowns at any meaningful level."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Brando Peričić

Big Brady picks Brando Peričić to win by first-round knockout. He praises Peričić's massive power and aggressive style, comparing him to a heavyweight Terrance McKinney. Brady notes that Gaziev is overrated and coming off a knockout loss, and believes Peričić's power will be too much early in the fight.

Peričić by KO, round 1
"I'm going to take Brando Peričić to win, how he wins, and that's going to be a knockout in the very first round."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Brando Peričić

Cody picks Peričić, calling him 'his boy' and believing he will knock out Gaziev. He notes Gaziev's poor cardio and wrestling, and thinks Peričić's kickboxing and volume will overwhelm him.

"I'm backing my boy. I think he catches a KO at some point. So it's Parachic."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Apr 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Brando Peričić

Daniel Vreeland picks Brando Peričić based on momentum, but is not confident due to Gaziev's takedown threat and Peričić's untested chin. He notes Gaziev's cardio issues and Peričić's ability to get up from takedowns.

"I'm not going to lay it, but as a pure pick, I will pick the momentum of Brando, but this is one where nothing's going to surprise me."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Lean picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Brando Peričić

Perišić is a slight favorite with dangerous striking and good takedown defense shown against Sutherland. Gaziev is slow, clunky, and has poor takedown entries. Perišić should keep the fight standing and knock Gaziev out, but his cardio is unknown. A speculative bet, not too big.

"I think Perišić decent bet this weekend... I like Perišić in this fight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Brando Peričić

Lucrative James picks Brando Peričić to win via knockout in round one. He admits bias as he knows Peričić personally, but believes Peričić's firepower and Gaziev's recent knockout loss make it likely. He notes Gaziev is a tough opponent but expects Peričić to get the finish.

"Bul Bear, round one knockout. My prediction."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Shamil Gaziev

The host fades Peričić, believing Gaziev's strength and wrestling will get the fight to the ground and lead to a TKO or submission. He thinks Peričić still has grappling holes and Gaziev is the right stylistic matchup to exploit them. The host notes Gaziev's explosive grappling and power.

Inside the distance
"I'm going to fade Peric here. Um, I'm going to go Gaz. I think Gaz will get the positions that he needs. It wouldn't even surprise me if Gaza actually wants to throw down and maybe try to …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Brando Peričić

Paul picks Peričić, citing his youth and pace, and questions Gaziev's cardio and wrestling effectiveness at heavyweight. He believes Peričić will outland and finish him.

"I'm with you I'm going to back the uh the younger the younger vocal guy in Brando Parisic to uh to outland and h yeah there's question marks it's a heavyweight fight there's always question marks."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Brando Peričić

The MMA Guru picks Brando Peričić, praising his well-rounded skills and grappling. He believes Peričić will maul Gaziev's legs and finish him in round one. He notes Gaziev's hand speed but thinks Peričić is a better-trained martial artist.

TKO in round one
"I'm going to go with Peričić by TKO."
Fight Notes
BR
brian 1 month ago

Shameel is a tofu song of a b**** how the f*** did he survive that answer that beating that murder those punches everything he got done dirty by their f****** ref not letting them fenced all and implemented style of real pedoping and then fenced darling and then real doping rando is the real deal because he's a mad man he said let it he's big

Fight 6 VS Heavyweight Completed
Louie Sutherland

Louie Sutherland W

11-5
Decision R3 5:00

Tai Tuivasa

Moneyline
BetWay -175
KO/TKO
FanDuel -120
Submission
FanDuel +3000
Decision
BetRivers +750

Louie Sutherland

Moneyline
Caesars +215
KO/TKO
FanDuel +500
Submission
FanDuel +1100
Decision
Unibet +600
Fighter Stats

Tai Tuivasa

Age33
Height6' 2"
Reach75.0"
Weight264 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Louie Sutherland

Age32
Height6' 3"
Reach76"
Weight264 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Tai Tuivasa

3.66SLpM
48.0%Str. Acc.
4.97SApM
43.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
60.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Louie Sutherland

3.75SLpM
52.0%Str. Acc.
7.5SApM
22.0%Str. Def.
4.69TD Avg
33.0%TD Acc.
0.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

Angelo picks Tai Tuivasa confidently, calling Louie Sutherland a modern-day Tank Abbott with no skill. He believes Tai's power and experience will overwhelm Sutherland, who was knocked out by Brando Peričić. He hopes Tai's cardio is better after a long layoff and expects a finish.

No odds yet; hopes for affordable line to bet.
"Tai's going to be the pick. I hope Tai has a little more cardio than he did in his last fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

Big Brady picks Tai Tuivasa to win by decision, though he acknowledges Tuivasa's long losing streak and lack of career seriousness. He notes that Sutherland is a step down in competition and that Tuivasa should win, but expects the fight to get 'greasy' and go the distance. Brady is hesitant due to Tuivasa's recent form.

Tuivasa by decision
"I'll go Tuivasa by decision, though."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

Cody picks Tuivasa by knockout, noting Sutherland's poor UFC performances and likely lack of drug testing. He believes Tuivasa's power and durability will be too much for Sutherland.

KO prop
"Tai for all of Tai's faults. It's like if you're gonna knock him out, you got to probably be a top guy... I do feel like Tai gets back in the win column."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Apr 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

Daniel Vreeland picks Tai Tuivasa to snap his losing streak, but is hesitant due to the risk of laying chalk on a six-fight skid. He believes Tuivasa's experience and power give him the edge, but warns that a loss would be embarrassing for bettors.

"I think it's comeback season, my friends. ... give me Tu Iasa to snap the big skid and uh to get back on track."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)
No clear pick

Tuivasa has a striking advantage but his ground game is terrible. Sutherland is not a good offensive wrestler but could still take Tuivasa down. Tuivasa's odds have declined and offer no value. The fight likely ends inside the distance but no bet recommended.

"It's a very tricky fight whichever way you approach this one from a betting point of view."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Louie Sutherland

The host picks the underdog Sutherland, believing his speed and grappling advantage will allow him to take Tuivasa down and grind out a decision. He notes Tuivasa's poor form and lack of investment, while Sutherland is more serious. The host acknowledges Tuivasa's knockout power but thinks Sutherland can avoid it.

Decision win
"I'm going to go Sutherland here. Uh, and Sutherland by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

Paul picks Tuivasa, agreeing that Sutherland is a step down and that Tuivasa's KO prop is fair. He notes Sutherland's deflated physique and poor durability.

KO prop
"Tai Knockout is like very fair, I think. Like, like we know Tai's not very unlikely to be get a sub be getting a sub in this fight and is like his his KO props like minus 115. …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

The MMA Guru picks Tai Tuivasa, believing he is more built for heavyweight and will win a messy brawl. He notes Tuivasa's heart and ability to get back up from bad positions. He thinks Junior Tafa is tailor-made for Tuivasa and predicts a first-round win.

win in round one
"I'm going to go Tai Tuivasa coming in at 264. He's pulling off a big weight cut here um for this one. I'm going to go with Tai Tuivasa getting the job done."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Cam Rowston

Cam Rowston W

15-3
Decision R3 5:00
Fight 7 VS Middleweight Completed

Cam Rowston

Moneyline
BetRivers -162
KO/TKO
BetRivers +550
Submission
BetRivers +235
Decision
FanDuel +330

Robert Bryczek

Moneyline
Pinnacle +297
KO/TKO
BetRivers +325
Submission
Unibet +2900
Decision
BetRivers +650
Fighter Stats

Cam Rowston

Age31
Height6' 3"
Reach78"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Robert Bryczek

Age35
Height6' 0"
Reach75.0"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Cam Rowston

4.26SLpM
46.0%Str. Acc.
2.62SApM
51.0%Str. Def.
0.5TD Avg
50.0%TD Acc.
33.0%TD Def.
0.5Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Robert Bryczek

3.74SLpM
36.0%Str. Acc.
4.08SApM
59.0%Str. Def.
0.56TD Avg
100.0%TD Acc.
85.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (11)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 26, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Cam Rowston

Angelo picks Cam Rowston but is very hesitant, calling it a trap. He notes that Cam is very hittable and Robert Bryczek is a clean boxer, but Cam has a good chin and grappling upside. He thinks the -260 odds are too wide and plans to avoid betting, possibly taking the over on rounds.

Over on half-round line considered; no bet recommended.
"Cam's gonna be the pick though, but I'm I don't think I'm gonna go ahead and place. Maybe we got a run on the half round line. I'll do the over."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Cam Rowston

Big Brady picks Cam Rowston to win by decision. He likes Rowston as a prospect with good grappling and power, and notes that Robert Bryczek is not a wrestler and has poor cardio. Brady expects Rowston to take over as the fight goes on, as long as his chin holds up, and mentions Bryczek's only chance is an early knockout.

Rowston by decision
"Give me Kam Rauscher. I'll take Rauscher to win by decision in this one."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Apr 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Cam Rowston

Cody picks Rowston but is hesitant, noting his tall man defense and vulnerability to power punchers. He believes Rowston's cardio and volume will outlast Bryczek, but acknowledges the risk of a knockout loss.

"I am picking him, but if I'm going to lose this fight, I'm going to look like an idiot because he's going to get knocked down the first or second round."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Robert Bryczek

Connor picks Bryczek because he thinks Rowston may not fight a good fight, similar to how Poitier didn't. He notes that Rowston does poorly when forced to go backwards, and Bryczek is willing to press forward into the pocket. He sees it as a fine filler fight between two action-forward middleweights.

"Yeah, I'll take Brishek. I think against Poteeria, again, we did not fight a good fight, but Rouston may not either."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Robert Bryczek

Daniel Vreeland picks Robert Bryczek as an underdog, believing the odds are off. He notes Bryczek's superior boxing and power, and Rowston's tendency to leave his head on the center line. He took Bryczek at plus 230 and sees value at plus 155.

"I took Brchek when he was plus 230. I mean, I just thought those odds were completely off. ... give me Robert Brchek to come out here and get this upset over Cam Rston down under."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Lean picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Robert Bryczek

Bryczek is a good bet at underdog odds because this fight is 50/50 at worst. Rowston is tall and lanky, slow, clunky, and bad defensively, while Bryczek is ultra-aggressive, powerful, and pressures well. Bryczek's takedown defense is unknown but his body type makes him hard to take down. The fight spread on Bryczek is also interesting but not locked in.

Moneyline bet at +138 (1 unit); considering fight spread
"I think Bryczek should be the favorite... I will be betting him at underdog odds."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Apr 26, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Cam Rowston

Lucrative James picks Cam Rowston to win via decision. He acknowledges Robert Bryczek's power and durability make this a dangerous fight, but believes Rowston's superior skill set and multiple paths to victory (striking from outside, grappling) will earn him the win. He plans to study more tape on the wrestling matchup.

"I'm going to pick Cam for that reason. You know multiple paths to victory... Cam Rston to win this fight via decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Cam Rowston

The host thinks Rowston will fight a safe game, mixing in clinch and ground work to wear down Bryczek. He expects a TKO or submission inside the distance, noting Rowston's striking power and BJJ brown belt. The host suggests a sprinkle on Bryczek KO as a hedge, but believes Rowston wins.

Inside the distance; sprinkle on Bryczek KO prop
"I think it's going to be Roston that fights a safe game here, gets into the clinch, gets this fight to the ground, and really start showcasing his BJJ brown belt. And I think that could lead to …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Robert Bryczek

Paul leans towards Bryczek, citing his power and the possibility that his poor UFC debut was due to jitters. He likes the KO prop and thinks Bryczek can catch Rowston.

KO prop
"I'm gonna lean ever so slightly towards uh Robert Brightche here. His KO prop is looking a little juicy at some places."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Cam Rowston

The MMA Guru picks Cam Rowston, citing his nasty KO wins and confidence from finishing Cody Brundage. He believes Rowston's striking will be effective against Robert Bryczek, who he expects to stand and trade. He predicts a TKO in round three and mentions fight of the night potential.

TKO in round three, fight of the night potential
"I'm going to go over Ralston getting this one done by TKO in round three."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Cam Rowston

Zane picks Rowston because he believes Rowston's bad grappling instincts won't be as problematic against Bryczek, who is a hooks man limited to the pocket. He thinks Rowston will eventually figure out to use his reach and throw straight punches, avoiding the stupid fight that could get him knocked out. However, he acknowledges it could easily go either way.

"I think I'm going to take Rouston just because the bad grappling instincts are bad, but they're probably not bad against Brishek."
Fight Notes
BR
brian 1 month ago

They're both terrible will never see them in the UC again hopefully I will see the Aussie guy maybe.

Junior Tafa

Junior Tafa W

7-5
KO R1 2:42
Fight 8 VS Light Heavyweight Completed

Junior Tafa

Moneyline
Caesars -180
KO/TKO
FanDuel -125
Submission
FanDuel +2700
Decision
FanDuel +750

Kevin Christian

Moneyline
Pinnacle +189
KO/TKO
FanDuel +650
Submission
BetRivers +460
Decision
BetWay +1200
Fighter Stats

Junior Tafa

Age29
Height6' 3"
Reach75.0"
Weight240 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Kevin Christian

Age31
Height6' 7"
Reach80"
Weight205 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Junior Tafa

3.41SLpM
51.0%Str. Acc.
2.55SApM
51.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
70.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Kevin Christian

1.64SLpM
56.0%Str. Acc.
2.65SApM
44.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
50.0%TD Def.
2.3Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (12)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 26, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Kevin Christian

Angelo leans Kevin Christian despite Junior Tafa being the better striker, because Tafa's takedown defense and ground game are terrible. He believes if Christian can get the fight to the ground, he will win. He expects a finish either way and mentions the under on rounds.

Under 1.5 rounds mentioned as likely.
"Kevin Christian is going to be the pick and we will all be gritting our teeth until this fight is actually on the ground. This is probably a one and a half round line."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Junior Tafa

Big Brady picks Junior Tafa to win by first-round knockout. He calls Kevin Christian the worst fighter in UFC history, citing his lack of volume, chin, and wrestling. Brady notes Tafa has two UFC wins by knockout and believes Christian's only path is a triangle choke, which is unlikely. He trusts Tafa's power to finish early.

Tafa by KO, round 1
"Give me Junior Tafa here to win this fight by first-round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Apr 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Junior Tafa

Cody picks Tafa but is hesitant, noting his poor cardio and submission vulnerability. He believes Tafa will likely win by knockout in the first round, but advises live betting Christian if it goes longer.

"I think Junior Tappa wins. Am I too much of a coward to click him at minus 210? Yeah, probably."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Kevin Christian

Connor picks Christian as a fun upset pick, noting that Tafa is a chaos fighter who either wins in the first round or loses. He points out that Tafa has no grappling and could get taken down or submitted by Christian's length. However, he admits Christian is bad and uncoordinated, making this a low-confidence pick.

"In fact, just for fun. I'm going to pick Kevin Christian. All right. You know, either Junior Tofa chaos him in the first round or loses."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Apr 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Junior Tafa

Daniel Vreeland reluctantly picks Junior Tafa to win by knockout, but is wary of Tafa's poor ground game and history of losing as a favorite. He notes Kevin Christian's poor distance management but sees Tafa's power as the deciding factor.

Kevin Christian by submission
"I do think that Junior Taffa can find the chin here. So I'm going to pick him to win by knockout reluctantly."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)
No clear pick

Tafa is the favorite but his advantages are baked into the odds. He has bad cardio and ground game, while Christian is slow and hittable but could exploit Tafa's weaknesses if he grapples. The fight is likely to end inside the distance but odds are terrible. No bet recommended.

"This one easy pass for me."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Junior Tafa

James is very confident in Junior Tafa because he believes Kevin Christian is a low-level UFC fighter with poor striking defense and cardio. He expects Tafa's superior boxing and kickboxing to lead to an early knockout, likely in the first round.

Junior Tafa wins inside the distance (-155), Junior Tafa wins in round one (+170)
"I see Junior Tafa winning this fight with a knockout, and honestly, probably in the first couple of rounds."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Junior Tafa

Lucrative James picks Junior Tafa to win via knockout. He considers Kevin Christian one of the worst fighters on the roster and believes Tafa is a much better striker. He expects Tafa's takedown defense to keep the fight standing where he has a clear advantage.

"I got Junior Tougher on this one and I have Junior Tougher via knockout."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Junior Tafa

Despite normally fading Tafa, the host picks him here because Christian's grappling is not UFC level. He expects Tafa's initial grappling defense to keep the fight standing, and then Tafa will land a big knockout. The host notes Tafa's power and that Christian is hittable and lacks durability.

Knockout win
"I think Junior Topa's initial line of grappling defense will work out enough for him here to keep this fight standing. And I think he's going to be able to take advantage of the Tomman defense of Christian. …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Christian

Paul picks Christian as an underdog, citing Tafa's history of gassing and getting submitted. He believes Christian's submission skills and durability could lead to an upset, especially if he survives the first round.

submission prop
"I'm gonna take Kevin Christian. But do I like that Paul? Oh my god. No. Just uh you got to make it happen somewhere."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Junior Tafa

The MMA Guru picks Junior Tafa, despite his 6-5 record, believing he will catch Kevin Christian coming in. He notes Tafa looked improved in his last fight and dropped Billy Elekana. He also comments on Christian's background, suggesting it affects his pick.

KO
"I'm going to go with Junior Tafa catching Kevin Christian on the chin."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Junior Tafa

Zane picks Tafa because he believes Kevin Christian is a bad athlete—flat-footed, slow, uncoordinated, and ungainly despite his height. He thinks Tafa, despite his own flaws, has enough power and aggression to finish Christian early. He notes that Christian is in Stefan Struve territory but without the toughness, and that Tafa should be able to beat him.

"Yeah, that's it. On the other hand, they've also found a guy Junior Tofa might lose too. Oh, that's every guy. In fact, just for fun. I'm going to pick Kevin Christian."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Jacob Malkoun

Jacob Malkoun W

10-3
Decision R3 5:00
Fight 9 VS Catchweight (190 lb) Completed

Jacob Malkoun

Moneyline
Pinnacle -515
KO/TKO
FanDuel +125
Submission
FanDuel +340
Decision
FanDuel +250

Gerald Meerschaert

Moneyline
BetRivers +950
KO/TKO
FanDuel +3000
Submission
BetRivers +2200
Decision
BetRivers +1600
Fighter Stats

Jacob Malkoun

Age30
Height5' 9"
Reach73.0"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Gerald Meerschaert

Age38
Height6' 1"
Reach77.0"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Career Averages - Jacob Malkoun

4.55SLpM
58.0%Str. Acc.
2.36SApM
55.0%Str. Def.
5.81TD Avg
40.0%TD Acc.
33.0%TD Def.
0.9Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Gerald Meerschaert

3.01SLpM
45.0%Str. Acc.
3.52SApM
53.0%Str. Def.
1.82TD Avg
30.0%TD Acc.
42.0%TD Def.
1.4Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (10)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock picked Apr 26, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Jacob Malkoun

Angelo is extremely confident in Jacob Malkoun, calling Gerald Meerschaert washed and stating he has no chance. He criticizes Meerschaert's poor takedown defense and chin, and believes Malkoun's wrestling will dominate. He even threatens to ban anyone who picks Meerschaert by submission.

No prop bets mentioned; odds noted as -800.
"Jacob Malcoun is a very expensive minus 800. I think that's a discount off what it should actually be."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Jacob Malkoun

Cody picks Malkoun by TKO, noting Meerschaert's recent knockout losses and Malkoun's improved striking. He believes Malkoun will finish him early, possibly in the first round.

TKO prop
"Malcoun wins. Malcoun wins easy, but you got to chase a prop. And I do take the knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Jacob Malkoun

Connor agrees with Zane, calling Malkoun a smart technician who uses his jab and single-leg effectively. He notes that Meerschaert is a slow, aging fighter who relied on opponents being bad, and now faces a composed fighter who won't make those mistakes. He sees it as a clear win for Malkoun.

"Yeah, I you know, even when Mirchard was improving he was relying on the opponents being bad and clueless to get wins."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jacob Malkoun

Daniel Vreeland picks Jacob Malkoun to knock out Gerald Meerschaert in the first round. He believes Malkoun's high pace and power will overwhelm Meerschaert, who he thinks is past his prime and likely to cover up when hit.

"I got Jacob Malcun to come out here and knock out GM3 in the first round."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Jacob Malkoun

Malkoun is a massive favorite with an implied probability of 92%, but the odds offer no value. He is a solid MMA grappler with better wrestling, striking, cardio, and home advantage. Meerschaert is old, missed weight, and only has a Hail Mary submission path. The over 1.5 rounds at 1.64 is interesting because Malkoun is a decision eater and Meerschaert is tough, but not super confident due to Meerschaert's decline.

Over 1.5 rounds at 1.64 (small bet)
"I don't really see any path to victory for Meerschaert other than hitting a crazy Hail Mary submission... I do quite like the over 1.5 rounds on this."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Jacob Malkoun

Lucrative James picks Jacob Malkoun to win via TKO. He believes Malkoun is a much better fighter and that Meerschaert is washed up. He notes Malkoun's wrestling and improved striking should be enough to finish Meerschaert, though he is not super confident on the method.

"I got Jacob Malcoun comfortably winning this fight... I'll take him to win, I guess, TKO."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Jacob Malkoun

The host expects Malkoun to run through Meerschaert, citing Malkoun's superior BJJ, youth, and striking. He thinks Malkoun will get a TKO or submission inside the distance, as Meerschaert is on a four-fight losing streak and his durability is fading. The host does not like betting minus 1000 but expects a finish.

Inside the distance
"I think Malcoun gets the win. I don't like betting minus 1000s anyway. Um, uh, obviously the inside the distance line will probably be very chalky as well, but I think we'll see Malcoun get a a TKO, …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Jacob Malkoun

Paul picks Malkoun, citing his improved boxing and wrestling. He believes Malkoun will knock out Meerschaert, who has been knocked out repeatedly in the first round.

KO prop
"I'm just probably going the Malccom by KO prop."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Jacob Malkoun

The MMA Guru picks Jacob Malkoun, noting he is a -1100 favorite but thinks the odds are too high. He praises Malkoun's skills and recent performances, while criticizing Gerald Meerschaert's recent losses and age. He acknowledges Meerschaert's submission threat but believes Malkoun is too good.

odds comment: -1100 favorite, should be -400
"Jacob Malkoun is a minus 1,100 favorite and I don't think he should be that big of a favorite first of all, but Malkoun's pretty good."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Jacob Malkoun

Zane picks Malkoun confidently, stating that Meerschaert is done—slow, old, and has been finished in three of his last four fights. He notes that Malkoun is a smart, strategic fighter with a good jab and single-leg takedown, which will be too much for Meerschaert's limited skills. He calls it a gentle send-off for Meerschaert.

"So Malcolm is just going to chew him up. Yeah, it is. It is truly sad because Gerald Marshard is one of the only guys in the entire UFC who I think seems like a actually chill dude."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Colby Thicknesse

Colby Thicknesse W

9-1
Decision R3 5:00
Fight 10 VS Bantamweight Completed

Colby Thicknesse

Moneyline
FanDuel +102
KO/TKO
BetRivers +1300
Submission
FanDuel +800
Decision
BetRivers +125

Vince Morales

Moneyline
BetWay +130
KO/TKO
BetRivers +750
Submission
Unibet +700
Decision
BetRivers +285
Fighter Stats

Colby Thicknesse

Age26
Height5' 7"
Reach69.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Vince Morales

Age35
Height5' 7"
Reach70.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Colby Thicknesse

3.33SLpM
42.0%Str. Acc.
2.8SApM
50.0%Str. Def.
1.0TD Avg
9.0%TD Acc.
50.0%TD Def.
0.5Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Vince Morales

3.57SLpM
37.0%Str. Acc.
4.0SApM
53.0%Str. Def.
0.59TD Avg
40.0%TD Acc.
58.0%TD Def.
0.5Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (10)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Colby Thicknesse

Angelo picks Colby Thicknesse due to his wrestling advantage and ability to exploit Vince Morales's poor takedown defense. He notes that Morales is on a three-fight losing streak and tends to fizzle if he doesn't get an early finish. Angelo expects a close fight but believes Colby's wrestling and potential Australian judge bias will secure the win.

"Kobe's going to be the pick. I think we're good there."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Vince Morales

Big Brady picks Vince Morales to win by submission in the second round. He criticizes Colby Thicknesse's striking as nonexistent and his wrestling as poor, citing low takedown success rates. Brady praises Morales' underrated grappling and front chokes, and expects him to capitalize on Thicknesse's desperation in grappling exchanges.

Morales by submission, round 2
"I'm going to take Vince Morales to win this fight and actually win this fight by submission in the second round."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Apr 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Colby Thicknesse

Cody picks Thicknesse but is hesitant, noting Morales' submission threat. He believes Thicknesse's volume and home crowd will edge a decision, but warns against shooting into submissions.

"I did take Kobe thickness but as far as live underdogs go that I'm not taking but I do believe are definitely a threat yeah Vince is in that category."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Colby Thicknesse

Connor picks Thicknesse, noting that Morales is a total head case who cannot stick to a winning strategy. He thinks Thicknesse's doggedness and toughness could cause Morales to overthink and make mistakes. He points out that Thicknesse is hard to finish and constantly scrambles, which might frustrate Morales.

"I just want to say that he is consistently tough and trying to make the fight happen and I think there's a non-zero chance that it might be Alice forgets to continue beating him as you know, it's …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Apr 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Vince Morales

Daniel Vreeland picks Vince Morales to upset Colby Thicknesse, believing Morales is the better fighter despite his poor record. He notes Morales' veteran savvy and submission threat, while Thicknesse's skills are questionable. He admits it's hard to have confidence in Morales.

"I'm actually going to go Vince Morales here to upset Colobby Thickness in Australia."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Apr 26, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Vince Morales

Lucrative James picks Vince Morales to win via decision. He expects a close fight where Morales' experience and striking edge, combined with his ability to get back to his feet after takedowns, will earn him a split decision. He notes Morales is likely the underdog, which adds value.

"I'll go with Vince Morales cuz I think he's going to be the underdog. In a split decision, you want to pick the underdog. So yeah, Vince Morales via decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Vince Morales

The host likes Morales as an underdog, citing his veteran experience, aggression, and superior grappling. He expects Morales to cut off the cage, keep Thickness from sticking and moving, and eventually win by submission. The host notes Thickness's raw level and that Morales has faced tougher competition.

Submission win
"I like Morales here. I think we're going to see him very aggressive with his submission game as well. And I think that will lead to Morales winning this fight by submission."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Vince Morales

Paul picks Morales as a small underdog, citing his submission threat and Thicknesse's tendency to shoot into chokes. He likes the Morales by submission prop.

submission prop
"I'm going to be taking the best available Morales by subprop and probably calling it a day."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Vince Morales

The MMA Guru picks Vince Morales as an underdog despite his three-fight losing streak. He believes Morales is better than his record, citing close fights against Elijah Smith and Raul Rosas Jr. He criticizes Colby Thicknesse's performance against Ilia Topuria and a tough fight against an African prospect, suggesting Thicknesse is overhyped.

"I'm going with Vince Morales as an underdog. Okay? I know people are high on Colby Thicknesse."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Vince Morales

Zane picks Morales despite his headcase tendencies, because Thicknesse is a bad athlete with no discernible skill set. He notes that Morales has a significant technical edge everywhere and should be able to win, but acknowledges that Morales often loses fights he should win due to mental lapses. He thinks Thicknesse's constant errors might give Morales opportunities.

"I got to pick him to win. I shouldn't but like him to this is this is the level where being a quadruple a guy is still supposed to be a guy who generally beats these yeah this …"
Fight Notes
BR
brian 1 month ago

Since when for a Peruvian necktie again this time it was 421 in the in the beds. Kobe was decent in the jitsu in round one had events in trouble in multiple spots in fact other is what I've tapped pulse stop rabbis could have done maybe more in round two and three to get the win especially to put it was close and the ultimately got robbed full stop the commentary seemed to have known that he was down by the judges given the way they were saying things so confidently full stop fence was 900 for the sub and 800 for the ko

Fight 11 VS Middleweight Completed
Wes Schultz

Wes Schultz W

9-3
Submission R3 1:50

Ben Johnston

Moneyline
FanDuel -136
KO/TKO
BetWay +300
Submission
BetWay +225
Decision
BetWay +700

Wes Schultz

Moneyline
Pinnacle +406
KO/TKO
FanDuel +600
Submission
BetRivers +265
Decision
BetRivers +1400
Fighter Stats

Ben Johnston

Age35
Height6' 4"
Reach76"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Wes Schultz

Age29
Height6' 1"
Reach77"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Ben Johnston

0.0SLpM
0.0%Str. Acc.
0.0SApM
0.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
0.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Wes Schultz

4.6SLpM
43.0%Str. Acc.
4.97SApM
45.0%Str. Def.
4.52TD Avg
25.0%TD Acc.
0.0%TD Def.
1.1Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (10)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 26, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Ben Johnston

Angelo picks Ben Johnston because he is more well-rounded with good striking, wrestling, and jiu-jitsu. He is concerned about Wes Schultz's potential if he uses his wrestling, but Schultz's last fight showed poor game planning and flopping on the ground. Angelo is hesitant because if Schultz wrestles effectively, he could win, but he trusts Johnston's overall MMA skills.

No bet recommended due to uncertainty; odds not mentioned.
"I'm going to pick Ben Johnson here. I'm not going to lay down two to one money on a dude this early in his career who hasn't proven himself in the octagon."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Ben Johnston

Big Brady picks Ben Johnston to win by second-round knockout, but expresses hesitation due to Johnston's long layoff and limited experience. He notes that Johnston has a black belt in BJJ and better cardio, while Wes Schultz has poor cardio and wrestling that hasn't translated. Brady calls the fight a 'mess' and says he would pass on betting it.

Johnston by KO, round 2
"I'll take Johnston to win. And I think he probably does finish Shultz, you know, as the fight goes on. I'll say second round knockout for Ben Johnston here."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Wes Schultz

Cody picks Schultz, citing Johnston's long layoff, recent shoulder surgery, and lack of striking training. He believes Schultz's wrestling and grappling will be too much for the rusty Johnston.

"Schultz will be the pick for me. There's just too many red flags on this Johnson guy."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Wes Schultz

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Schultz because Johnston is incredibly undercooked and Schultz will aggressively go for takedowns. He notes that Schultz has been proven to lack athleticism but his wrestling and aggression should overwhelm Johnston. He calls it a good rule of thumb to go with the wrestler in this matchup.

"Agreed. Yeah, odds on the fight Schultz is the underdog plus 210 currently plus 120."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Apr 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Ben Johnston

Daniel Vreeland had no clear pick and flipped a coin to decide. He noted that both fighters have significant unknowns: Johnston's layoff and takedown defense, Schultz's spastic style and loss to Dylan Budka. The coin landed on heads, so he picks Ben Johnston.

"I have no idea who wins this fight between Wes Schultz and Ben Johnson. So, we got to flip the coin."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Apr 26, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Wes Schultz

Lucrative James picks Wes Schultz to win via submission. He cites Ben Johnston's two-year retirement and shoulder surgery as major red flags, and believes Schultz's unorthodox style and UFC experience will be decisive. He acknowledges Johnston may have better skills but favors the intangibles.

"I'm picking where shorts to win this fight and ultimately I'll pick him to win the fight via submission."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Wes Schultz

The host picks the upset, believing Schultz is the better wrestler and BJJ specialist, and that his activity and wrestling advantage will allow him to grind down Johnston. He expects a round two or three finish. The host is not impressed with Johnston's strength of schedule or grappling, and thinks Schultz is fringe UFC level but capable.

Round two or three finish
"I'm going to go with the upset here. I don't think Johnston is UFC level. I think Schultz is like fringe UFC level, but given his activity... I think we'll see Schultz grind Johnson down and then eventually …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Wes Schultz

Paul picks Schultz, agreeing with Cody about Johnston's red flags. He notes Schultz's wrestling advantage and Johnston's inactivity, making Schultz the logical choice.

"I got Schultz."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Ben Johnston

The MMA Guru picks Ben Johnston, citing his power, submission skills, and athleticism. He notes that Wes Schultz has been finished in recent fights and may not have the chin for the sport. He predicts a TKO win for Johnston, especially given Schultz's quick turnaround from a KO loss.

TKO
"I'm going to go with Ben Johnston. I'm going to take him by TKO, especially because Wes Shults is coming off of that destructive KO loss and he's already making a turnaround."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Wes Schultz

Zane picks Schultz because he thinks Schultz's funky wrestling will be too much for Johnston, who is undercooked and has never seen that style. He notes that Schultz is a bad athlete and his striking is risky, but Johnston's lack of experience against wrestlers gives Schultz the edge. He acknowledges Schultz has failed UFC tests before.

"I have to take Schultz. Yeah, you just think he's going to impose funky wrestling on Johnston."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Jonathan Micallef

Jonathan Micallef W

10-1
Decision R3 5:00
Fight 12 VS Welterweight Completed

Jonathan Micallef

Moneyline
FanDuel -215
KO/TKO
FanDuel +600
Submission
BetRivers +250
Decision
BetRivers +260

Themba Gorimbo

Moneyline
Pinnacle +318
KO/TKO
BetWay +900
Submission
BetWay +800
Decision
BetRivers +525
Fighter Stats

Jonathan Micallef

Age27
Height6' 0"
Reach77.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Themba Gorimbo

Age35
Height6' 1"
Reach77.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Jonathan Micallef

3.96SLpM
41.0%Str. Acc.
4.22SApM
56.0%Str. Def.
1.13TD Avg
66.0%TD Acc.
75.0%TD Def.
1.1Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Themba Gorimbo

2.72SLpM
60.0%Str. Acc.
1.32SApM
51.0%Str. Def.
5.07TD Avg
65.0%TD Acc.
72.0%TD Def.
0.4Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (10)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Jonathan Micallef

Angelo picks Jonathan Micallef because he believes Micallef's pressure wrestling will neutralize Themba Gorimbo's range striking. He expects Micallef to crowd Gorimbo, take away his distance, and drag him to the ground for control. Angelo also mentions the possibility of Australian judges favoring Micallef in a close fight.

Over 2.5 rounds mentioned as solid.
"Jonathan Mlev should win this with just some good oldfashioned wrestling. I don't think we find a finish here. Over two and a half is probably pretty solid."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Micallef

Big Brady picks Jonathan Micallef to win by submission in the second or third round. He criticizes Themba Gorimbo's style as panic wrestling and notes his poor durability and submission defense. Brady believes Micallef is dangerous everywhere, especially with his kicks, and that Gorimbo will make a mistake in the grappling as he slows down, leading to a submission.

Micallef by submission, round 2 or 3
"I'm picking Mequelet to win this fight by submission in the second or third round when Themba starts to slow down."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Micallef

Cody picks Micallef, noting his youth and improvement. He believes Micallef's grappling and submission skills will overcome Gorimbo's wrestling, and likes the submission prop.

submission prop
"Malf will be the side the pick for me. I think he's a guy that I kind of underestimated when he first came into the UFC and he's kind of proven me wrong."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Jonathan Micallef

Connor picks Micallef, agreeing that Gorimbo is a mess who overwhelms bad athletes but gets flung around by good ones. He notes Micallef is a good athlete with reach and a high-output kicking game, and Gorimbo's wrestling is not good enough to neutralize him. He calls it a worthwhile test for Micallef.

"Yep. And yeah, McAlluff has never dealt with a blanket, but he's definitely not a bad athlete. No, and he's pretty big."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Apr 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Micallef

Daniel Vreeland leans towards Jonathan Micallef to win a split decision, but is not confident. He thinks Gorimbo may win the first round but fade, while Micallef's body lock and kicking game could take over. He notes the odds are off but doesn't trust Gorimbo.

"I'm going to lean towards Michaeliff to win kind of an uninspiring split decision."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Apr 26, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Jonathan Micallef

Lucrative James picks Jonathan Micallef to win via submission. He believes Micallef's jiu-jitsu is a level above Gorimbo's, and expects Gorimbo to make a grappling mistake that Micallef can capitalize on. He notes Gorimbo's training in North Ossetia may improve his wrestling, but still favors Micallef's submission skills.

"I think that Jonathan Miff is going to submit him... I'm picking Jonathan Miff to win this fight via submission."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Jonathan Micallef

The host thinks Micallef is the better and stronger fighter, with a grappling edge that will show in deeper waters. He expects Micallef to grind out a decision, but advises waiting for a better line as Gorimbo may get public support. The host notes Micallef's strength and grappling ability, while Gorimbo's reckless striking and recent losses are concerns.

"I think he is the better fighter. I think he's the stronger fighter. I think he's the better grappler. And I think that's going to start to show more and more as we get into deeper water here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Micallef

Paul picks Micallef, citing his submission skills and Gorimbo's tendency to get taken down. He believes Micallef will catch a submission off his back or win a decision.

submission prop
"I took a small shot on Maciff by sub because um I mean he's shown a knack for it."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Jonathan Micallef

The MMA Guru picks Jonathan Micallef, highlighting his well-rounded skills and durability. He criticizes Themba Gorimbo's recent performances, especially the loss to Jeremiah Wells where Gorimbo made mistakes. He notes Micallef's power and athleticism, and predicts a submission win.

submission win
"I'm going to go with Jonathan Micallef here. Um I think he'll be a little bit too well-rounded and probably get a submission win over Themba Gorimbo."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Jonathan Micallef

Zane picks Micallef confidently, noting his high-output kicking game and reach will trouble Gorimbo, who is a blanketer with rudimentary striking. He thinks Micallef is a much better athlete and sniper, and Gorimbo's wrestling is sacrificial and not good enough to hold Micallef down. He sees it as a sensible matchup for Micallef.

"So I'm picking him too, but I think it's a sensible matchup. I have no problem with giving this fight to McAlluff right now."
Fight Notes

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Fight 13 VS Lightweight Completed
Kody Steele

Kody Steele W

8-1
Submission R1 3:56

Dom Mar Fan

Moneyline
FanDuel +270
KO/TKO
Unibet +1150
Submission
BetRivers +1400
Decision
BetRivers +285

Kody Steele

Moneyline
Pinnacle -145
KO/TKO
FanDuel +420
Submission
FanDuel +700
Decision
FanDuel +200
Fighter Stats

Dom Mar Fan

Age26
Height5' 11"
Reach75"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Kody Steele

Age31
Height5' 9"
Reach71.0"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Dom Mar Fan

3.71SLpM
56.0%Str. Acc.
2.49SApM
44.0%Str. Def.
2.0TD Avg
50.0%TD Acc.
66.0%TD Def.
0.3Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Kody Steele

4.44SLpM
32.0%Str. Acc.
7.17SApM
52.0%Str. Def.
0.62TD Avg
14.0%TD Acc.
100.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (10)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Kody Steele

Angelo picks Kody Steele despite his last fight stats looking bad, because he believes Steele's pressure and takedowns will be effective against Dom Mar Fan's weak takedown defense. He notes that Steele can hang in striking and then sneak takedowns. Angelo hopes the odds tighten as he expects public perception to favor Dom based on stats.

Angelo hopes odds tighten; mentions -175 odds.
"Cody's going to be the pick. I hope these odds tighten. I hope people do look at the last fight and the stats and just make some snap judgments and bet the other side."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Kody Steele

Big Brady picks Kody Steele to win by decision. He notes that Steele has a strong grappling background but tends to strike, which he believes will be an advantage against Dom Mar Fan's grappling-focused style. Brady thinks Steele is the better striker and grappler, and expects him to stuff takedowns and outwork Mar Fan on the feet over three rounds.

Steele by decision
"I like Steel here to win the fight. I'm going to take him to win the fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Kody Steele

Cody picks Steele, citing his superior grappling and BJJ black belt. He believes Steele's wrestling and submission skills will be too much for Mar Fan, despite Steele's tendency to brawl.

"I got to go with the best guy with the best skill set who I believe is going to win. And it's Cody Steel."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Dom Mar Fan

Connor picks Mar Fan, noting that he is calm and composed, while Steele is a hothead who gets mad and fights stupidly when frustrated. He compares Steele to Cody Garbrandt in his worst aspects. He thinks Mar Fan's technical problem-solving and composure will frustrate Steele and lead to a win.

"Yeah, I feel inclined to take Don Marfan actually. Yeah, I think he's I just think he's real calm and composed and steel is accustomed to the idea of people freaking out."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Kody Steele

Daniel Vreeland picks Kody Steele to get his first UFC win, believing he is more physical and athletic than Dom Mar Fan. He notes Steele's durability and pace, and thinks Mar Fan is not a significant step up in competition.

"I think Cody Steel gets back on track, gets his first UFC win. I think he probably bullies this guy a little bit."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Apr 26, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Kody Steele

Lucrative James picks Kody Steele to win via knockout. He believes Steele's grappling base and physicality will neutralize Dom Mar Fan's wrestling, and that Steele has a striking advantage. He notes Steele's recent loss to Zhu Rong but expects a bounce-back performance. He plans to review more tape on Steele's grappling.

"I'll take Cody Steel to win this one and I'll take Cody Steel to win this one via knockout."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Kody Steele

The host believes Kody Steele is the better grappler with superior wrestling and BJJ, and expects him to outscramble Dom Mar Fan. On the feet, Steele's power, aggressiveness, and pace will cause Fan problems, leading to a knockout victory, likely in the third round. The host notes that Steele's striking is more confident than typical BJJ specialists, but his takedown defense needs work. The host also mentions a prop for round three KO at +400.

Round three KO at +400
"I think Steel is the better grappler. He's a better wrestler, better BJJ specialist. And I think he'll be able to outscramble and showcase a better gas tank than Domar fan as well."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Dom Mar Fan

Paul picks Mar Fan as a dog, citing his resourcefulness and ability to win close fights. He believes Mar Fan's grit and home crowd could lead to a controversial split decision.

"Dogger pass for me. controversial split decision just for just to blow up people's parlays early in the day."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Kody Steele

The MMA Guru picks Kody Steele, citing his grappling prowess and experience in grappling tournaments. He notes that Dom Mar Fan's Road to UFC wins were against lower-level competition and his last performance wasn't impressive. He believes Steele's grappling will be the deciding factor.

"I'm going to go with Cody Steel with his grappling prowess here taking over in this fight."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Kody Steele

Zane picks Steele because he believes Steele's physical ceiling is higher and he knows how to fight going forward. He notes that Steele is an underperformer but has the tools to put pressure on Mar Fan. However, he acknowledges Steele's tendency to get frustrated and fight stupid when things don't go his way.

"I'm still gonna pick Cody steel. Just because I do think the physical ceiling is higher and he does know how to fight going forward."
Fight Notes

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