Carlos Ulberg
Dominick Reyes
Career Averages - Carlos Ulberg
Career Averages - Dominick Reyes
Angelo picks Carlos Ulberg over Dominick Reyes, citing Ulberg's superior technical striking and takedown defense. He notes that Reyes does not use his reach well and may get clipped if he charges forward. He expects a decision win for Ulberg, possibly boring, but believes Ulberg is the clear pick. He mentions the line moved from minus 160 to minus 260.
Big Brady picks Carlos Ulberg to win by fourth-round knockout. He praises Ulberg's improvements and power, and questions whether Reyes's chin has truly recovered. He believes Ulberg will land a big shot over 25 minutes or win a volume-based decision as the hometown fighter.
Cody believes the line is too wide at Ulberg -260 and sees value on Reyes as a dog. He argues Reyes is just as good a striker, has five-round experience, and may have a wrestling advantage to stuff takedowns. He notes Ulberg's recent fights against older, slower opponents were competitive, and Reyes could drag him into deep waters.
Connor also picks Ulberg, but with more hesitation. He acknowledges that Reyes could pressure effectively like he did against Jon Jones, but doubts Reyes's technical improvements. Connor notes that Reyes's wins are against questionable opposition and that his footwork and combination punching remain flawed. He thinks Ulberg's speed and willingness to make Reyes work could cause Reyes to second-guess himself, especially given Ulberg's imposing physique.
James confidently picks Carlos Ulberg, believing he is the superior striker with better fight IQ and faints. He dismisses Reyes' recent wins as deceiving, noting opponents ran into his punches. He predicts Ulberg will catch Reyes with a clean shot and knock him out, exposing Reyes' chin.
James picks Carlos Ulberg confidently, citing his superior striking technique, feint game, and durability. He notes that Ulberg is the more well-schooled kickboxer with better footwork and shot selection, and that Reyes' recent wins came against opponents who rushed in recklessly, which Ulberg won't do. He also mentions Reyes' past chin issues and believes Ulberg can hurt him to the body or head. He predicts a knockout, though a decision is also possible.
The host acknowledges Reyes has athleticism and power to change the fight, but believes Ulberg's technical advantages will cause Reyes to walk onto a counter and get knocked out. He notes it will be closer than the odds indicate but expects Ulberg to earn his ninth straight victory and potentially a title shot.
The Guru picks Carlos Ulberg to win by TKO in the third round. He believes Ulberg's back-foot striking and counter-punching will frustrate Reyes, who struggles when forced to lead. He notes Reyes' tendency to leave himself open when moving forward and cites Ulberg's performance against Jan Błachowicz as superior to Reyes'. He expects Reyes to get desperate and get caught.
Zane picks Ulberg, expecting him to use his jab-centric, technical out-fighting to keep Reyes at range and avoid pressure. He notes that Ulberg is fast and will likely circle away, making it hard for Reyes to cut off the cage. Zane worries that Reyes's confidence may not hold if he can't close the distance, and he sees Ulberg's speed and low kicks as key factors. He also mentions that the big cage in Perth favors Ulberg's movement.
**Pick:** Carlos Ulberg (Unanimous) **Analysis:** This will be a slow, tactical, and potentially 'dreadful' fight. Ulberg is a 'capital T technical' fighter who is very patient and waits for opponents to make mistakes. While Dominick Reyes's confidence has returned, his technical skills have not evolved, and he is not a 'pressure master.' Ulberg's cautious, southpaw-averse style, combined with Reyes's own counter-punching tendencies, will lead to a low-output affair. Ulberg's speed and patience will allow him to win the exchanges and secure a decision. **Props:** No specific props were mentioned.
**Pick:** Carlos Ulberg **Analysis:** Ulberg is a patient counter-striker who will frustrate Reyes into making a mistake. Reyes' recent winning streak is against opponents who were past their prime. The 34-year-old Ulberg is in his physical prime for the light heavyweight division and has the best left hook in the division outside of Alex Pereira. **Props:** Ulberg by left hook knockout.
**Pick:** Dominick Reyes **Analysis:** The betting line is too wide, with Ulberg being overly favored. Ulberg's recent wins against older, slower opponents like Volkan Oezdemir and Jan Błachowicz were highly competitive and not dominant performances. Dominick Reyes, who once arguably beat Jon Jones, may be returning to form after taking time off to recover. Reyes is just as good of a striker as Ulberg and has more experience in five-round fights. **Props:** No specific props were mentioned.
Dom might have his confidence back