Fight card

UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes

September 28, 2025 RAC Arena Perth, Australia
Carlos Ulberg

Carlos Ulberg W

15-1
KO R1 4:27
Fight 1 VS Light Heavyweight Completed

Carlos Ulberg

Moneyline
4casters -235
KO/TKO
Cloudbet -118
Submission
FanDuel +2200
Decision
BetMGM +550

Dominick Reyes

Moneyline
4casters +219
KO/TKO
Cloudbet +449
Submission
Cloudbet +2031
Decision
BetRivers +850
Fighter Stats

Carlos Ulberg

Age35
Height6' 4"
Reach77.0"
Weight205 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Dominick Reyes

Age36
Height6' 4"
Reach77.0"
Weight205 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Career Averages - Carlos Ulberg

6.54SLpM
55.0%Str. Acc.
4.04SApM
51.0%Str. Def.
0.55TD Avg
60.0%TD Acc.
85.0%TD Def.
0.2Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Dominick Reyes

5.39SLpM
54.0%Str. Acc.
3.49SApM
49.0%Str. Def.
0.29TD Avg
28.0%TD Acc.
82.0%TD Def.
0.3Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Angelo picks Carlos Ulberg over Dominick Reyes, citing Ulberg's superior technical striking and takedown defense. He notes that Reyes does not use his reach well and may get clipped if he charges forward. He expects a decision win for Ulberg, possibly boring, but believes Ulberg is the clear pick. He mentions the line moved from minus 160 to minus 260.

Expects decision; no finish.
"I'm going to pick Carlos Uber here. I think this is mostly a striking matchup and Carlos is the better striker. While Dominic Reyes has the torso of a giraffe, the reality is he doesn't use his reach …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Big Brady picks Carlos Ulberg to win by fourth-round knockout. He praises Ulberg's improvements and power, and questions whether Reyes's chin has truly recovered. He believes Ulberg will land a big shot over 25 minutes or win a volume-based decision as the hometown fighter.

fourth round knockout
"I'm going to go Bberg here. Here, I'm going to goberg by fourth round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Cody believes the line is too wide at Ulberg -260 and sees value on Reyes as a dog. He argues Reyes is just as good a striker, has five-round experience, and may have a wrestling advantage to stuff takedowns. He notes Ulberg's recent fights against older, slower opponents were competitive, and Reyes could drag him into deep waters.

"I just feel like the value here is clearly on Dominic Rays that should be able to keep this these striking exchanges close has a little more experience, has been five rounds before and then might have low …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Connor also picks Ulberg, but with more hesitation. He acknowledges that Reyes could pressure effectively like he did against Jon Jones, but doubts Reyes's technical improvements. Connor notes that Reyes's wins are against questionable opposition and that his footwork and combination punching remain flawed. He thinks Ulberg's speed and willingness to make Reyes work could cause Reyes to second-guess himself, especially given Ulberg's imposing physique.

"I think I have to pick Olberg just because I don't think Reyes is going to close him down that easily."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2025 (9 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

James confidently picks Carlos Ulberg, believing he is the superior striker with better fight IQ and faints. He dismisses Reyes' recent wins as deceiving, noting opponents ran into his punches. He predicts Ulberg will catch Reyes with a clean shot and knock him out, exposing Reyes' chin.

by KO
"I'm predicting Carlosberg in this one. I think he's the better striker."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 15, 2025 (13 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

James picks Carlos Ulberg confidently, citing his superior striking technique, feint game, and durability. He notes that Ulberg is the more well-schooled kickboxer with better footwork and shot selection, and that Reyes' recent wins came against opponents who rushed in recklessly, which Ulberg won't do. He also mentions Reyes' past chin issues and believes Ulberg can hurt him to the body or head. He predicts a knockout, though a decision is also possible.

knockout
"I'm calling Carlos Orberg here. I'm calling Carlos Orberg pretty confidently here. ... I'm going to say knockout."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

The host acknowledges Reyes has athleticism and power to change the fight, but believes Ulberg's technical advantages will cause Reyes to walk onto a counter and get knocked out. He notes it will be closer than the odds indicate but expects Ulberg to earn his ninth straight victory and potentially a title shot.

closer fight than odds indicate
"Reyes obviously has the athleticism and power to change the tide of any fight, but I believe it's going to be the technical advantages of Alberg that causes Reyes to walk onto a counter and eventually get knocked …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

The Guru picks Carlos Ulberg to win by TKO in the third round. He believes Ulberg's back-foot striking and counter-punching will frustrate Reyes, who struggles when forced to lead. He notes Reyes' tendency to leave himself open when moving forward and cites Ulberg's performance against Jan Błachowicz as superior to Reyes'. He expects Reyes to get desperate and get caught.

third round TKO
"I think Carlos Allberg has got this one in the bag."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Zane picks Ulberg, expecting him to use his jab-centric, technical out-fighting to keep Reyes at range and avoid pressure. He notes that Ulberg is fast and will likely circle away, making it hard for Reyes to cut off the cage. Zane worries that Reyes's confidence may not hold if he can't close the distance, and he sees Ulberg's speed and low kicks as key factors. He also mentions that the big cage in Perth favors Ulberg's movement.

"I think I'm gonna pick Olberg just because I don't think Reyes is going to close him down that easily."
Fight Notes
MMA Vivisection podcast with Zane and Connor
MMA Vivisection podcast with Zane and Connor Expert 8 months, 1 week ago

**Pick:** Carlos Ulberg (Unanimous) **Analysis:** This will be a slow, tactical, and potentially 'dreadful' fight. Ulberg is a 'capital T technical' fighter who is very patient and waits for opponents to make mistakes. While Dominick Reyes's confidence has returned, his technical skills have not evolved, and he is not a 'pressure master.' Ulberg's cautious, southpaw-averse style, combined with Reyes's own counter-punching tendencies, will lead to a low-output affair. Ulberg's speed and patience will allow him to win the exchanges and secure a decision. **Props:** No specific props were mentioned.

Half the Battle Daniel
Half the Battle Daniel Expert 8 months, 1 week ago

**Pick:** Carlos Ulberg **Analysis:** Ulberg is a patient counter-striker who will frustrate Reyes into making a mistake. Reyes' recent winning streak is against opponents who were past their prime. The 34-year-old Ulberg is in his physical prime for the light heavyweight division and has the best left hook in the division outside of Alex Pereira. **Props:** Ulberg by left hook knockout.

Bookie Beatdown Cody
Bookie Beatdown Cody Expert 8 months, 1 week ago

**Pick:** Dominick Reyes **Analysis:** The betting line is too wide, with Ulberg being overly favored. Ulberg's recent wins against older, slower opponents like Volkan Oezdemir and Jan Błachowicz were highly competitive and not dominant performances. Dominick Reyes, who once arguably beat Jon Jones, may be returning to form after taking time off to recover. Reyes is just as good of a striker as Ulberg and has more experience in five-round fights. **Props:** No specific props were mentioned.

BR
brian 8 months, 2 weeks ago

Dom might have his confidence back

Jimmy Crute

Jimmy Crute W

14-4-2
Submission R1 3:19
Fight 2 VS Light Heavyweight Completed

Jimmy Crute

Moneyline
4casters -174
KO/TKO
Cloudbet +285
Submission
Cloudbet +284
Decision
Cloudbet +453

Ivan Erslan

Moneyline
FanDuel +194
KO/TKO
BetRivers +330
Submission
FanDuel +3000
Decision
FanDuel +800
Fighter Stats

Jimmy Crute

Age30
Height6' 2"
Reach74.0"
Weight205 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Ivan Erslan

Age34
Height6' 2"
Reach72.0"
Weight205 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Jimmy Crute

4.15SLpM
52.0%Str. Acc.
3.65SApM
42.0%Str. Def.
4.39TD Avg
52.0%TD Acc.
58.0%TD Def.
2.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Ivan Erslan

2.55SLpM
46.0%Str. Acc.
5.01SApM
53.0%Str. Def.
0.45TD Avg
20.0%TD Acc.
61.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

Angelo picks Jimmy Crute over Ivan Erslan, believing Crute is the better fighter everywhere except one-punch knockout power. He notes Crute's wrestling and submissions, and that Erslan is knockout-or-bust. He is surprised by the line tightening and attributes it to Crute's mullet, not his skills. He may bet on Crute if the line continues to collapse.

May bet on Crute if line continues to tighten.
"Jimmy Croo should win this fight. I am actually surprised by the line tightening. Again, people see the haircut and they're like, 'Nah, dude. a grown man. A grown [ __ ] man. No, not doing that.' That …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Ivan Erslan

Big Brady picks Ivan Erslan to win by first-round KO. He criticizes Crute's poor striking defense and worries about his chin. He notes Erslan has solid power and striking, and if Crute refuses to grapple, Erslan can knock him out. He acknowledges Crute could get a submission if he gets top position.

first round KO
"I'm going to take Erslon here. I'll say Erslon wins this fight by first round KO."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Sep 23, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

Cody picks Crute but acknowledges his inconsistency and durability issues. He believes Crute's wrestling and jiu-jitsu are good enough to take down Erslan, who is rudimentary and low-output. He worries about Crute's chin and tendency to tire, but thinks Erslan won't push a pace to exploit that.

"I just think better everywhere. His wrestling is good enough that he should be able to take Urslon down"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

Connor picks Crute on the slim hope that his submission grappling will be the difference if the fight goes past the first round. He acknowledges that both fighters are first-round specialists, but Crute has a more complete game with submission wins. Connor is hesitant because Crute's cardio and tendency to fall apart are major concerns, but he thinks Crute's grappling could catch Erslan off guard.

"I'll take Jimmy Crute. Why not on the slim thought that his submission grappling game will be the difference maker?"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2025 (9 days before fight)
Ivan Erslan

James picks Ivan Erslan as an underdog, citing Crute's tendency to fade after round one and Erslan's superior cardio and boxing. He notes Erslan has been competitive in his UFC losses and that the line was favorable at +200 when he bet. He believes Erslan can win by outworking Crute in later rounds.

"I'm actually picking the underdog here. I'm actually picking Ivan Urseland here."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 15, 2025 (13 days before fight)
Ivan Erslan

James picks the underdog Ivan Erslan, believing he is the better boxer with superior cardio. He criticizes Jimmy Crute's recent performance, calling him overrated and noting his wrestling is overrated and his takedowns are poor. He also mentions Crute's mental health issues and past damage as concerns. James thinks Erslan can defend takedowns and outwork Crute on the feet, making him a live dog at +200.

"I'm actually going to pick the underdog in this fight, boys. Ivan Ursland is a live dog here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

The host notes Crute finally won after five years and thinks this is a perfect matchup for him to gain momentum. He expects Crute to use his reckless striking to set up a takedown and then snatch a submission.

win by submission
"Crude finally picking up a win in his first win in five years last time around and I think this is a perfect match up for him to start gaining some momentum. Look for him to utilize his …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

The Guru picks Jimmy Crute, despite his past struggles, because he sees no talent in Ivan Erslan. He believes Crute's grappling will be the difference, allowing him to take Erslan down and secure a submission in round one or two.

submission in round 1 or 2
"I'm going to go Jimmy Crew."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Ivan Erslan

Zane picks Erslan, believing that Erslan's ability to stay on his feet and throw punches later in the fight will be key. He notes that Crute tends to fall apart after the first round, often flopping to his back in desperation. Zane thinks Erslan is more likely to survive the early onslaught and then outwork Crute in the later rounds, as Crute's cardio and composure are questionable.

"I think I'm gonna take Urslan. Sure, just take him away from me."
Fight Notes
MMA Vivisection podcast with Zane and Connor
MMA Vivisection podcast with Zane and Connor Expert 8 months, 1 week ago

**Pick:** Split (Zane picks Jimmy Crute, Connor picks Ivan Urslan) **Analysis:** This is a battle between two fighters who are primarily effective in the first round. Jimmy Crute has a history of getting tired, losing confidence, and mentally breaking down if a fight extends. Ivan Urslan is a nuts and bolts slugger who also hasn't won a fight past the first round since 2018. Zane's pick for Crute is based on the idea that if the fight becomes a sloppy wrestling match after the first round, Crute's submission grappling is the most dangerous skill either man possesses. Connor's pick for Urslan is a bet against Crute's infamous tendency to fall apart. **Props:** No specific props were mentioned.

Half the Battle Daniel
Half the Battle Daniel Expert 8 months, 1 week ago

**Pick:** Jimmy Crute **Analysis:** While acknowledging Crute's cardio issues and shaky durability past the first round, his high-level BJJ is the key. Urslan's weakness on the ground is evident - he's been taken down and had his back taken in both of his UFC fights. Crute will get the fight to the mat early. **Props:** Crute by first-round submission. The 'Crute by Submission' prop at +265 is recommended over 'Crute in Round 1' as it offers the same odds but covers a submission in any round.

Bookie Beatdown Cody
Bookie Beatdown Cody Expert 8 months, 1 week ago

**Pick:** Jimmy Crute **Analysis:** Although Crute has inconsistencies, cardio issues, and recent retirement, he's the more skilled fighter everywhere. Crute has a significant advantage in wrestling and jiu-jitsu. Urslan is a rudimentary, low-output striker, which is unlikely to pressure Crute enough to cause him to gas out. **Props:** No specific props were mentioned.

BR
brian 8 months, 2 weeks ago

Ivan in his two previous fights has ok people on the feet opting to wrestle. Rd1 he is dangerous hurting both opponents in previous two outings. He seems to be ok atwrestling defense ATT croatia but still can be taken down.

Jack Jenkins

Jack Jenkins W

14-4
Decision R3 5:00
Fight 3 VS Catchweight (147 lb) Completed

Jack Jenkins

Moneyline
4casters -271
KO/TKO
Cloudbet +255
Submission
BetMGM +1000
Decision
BetRivers +143

Ramon Taveras

Moneyline
BetRivers +250
KO/TKO
Cloudbet +1168
Submission
Cloudbet +1425
Decision
BetRivers +540
Fighter Stats

Jack Jenkins

Age32
Height5' 7"
Reach68.0"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Ramon Taveras

Age32
Height5' 8"
Reach70.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Career Averages - Jack Jenkins

4.48SLpM
61.0%Str. Acc.
2.95SApM
59.0%Str. Def.
1.98TD Avg
60.0%TD Acc.
71.0%TD Def.
0.2Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Ramon Taveras

4.07SLpM
43.0%Str. Acc.
6.45SApM
54.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
72.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

Angelo picks Jack Jenkins despite thinking he is overrated, because he believes Jenkins can win with forward pressure and volume, similar to how Davy Grant beat Taveras. He notes Taveras chases overhands and power, which Jenkins can counter. He attributes the line collapse to Jenkins' ironic mustache, not his skills.

"I personally do think Jack is overrated. So, for me to pick Jack while thinking he's overrated should tell you something. I think he's just getting too much credit for breaking somebody's leg five years ago or 10, …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

Big Brady picks Jack Jenkins to win by decision. He notes Jenkins has more tools, including leg kicks that will target Taveras's lead leg. He also mentions Jenkins can mix in takedowns. He thinks the line is a bit wide but still expects Jenkins to win at home.

"Give me Jack Jenkins and Jack Jenkins by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

Cody picks Jenkins, citing his devastating leg kicks that will slow Taveras down over time. He notes Taveras is a better boxer but flat-footed and has no takedown attempts in his UFC career, making him vulnerable to Jenkins' kicks and potential wrestling. He also mentions Taveras missed weight in past fights and is traveling to Perth, which could affect his performance.

"I think Jack Jenkins wins. I think he wins. I I like this guy's leg kicks."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

Connor also picks Jenkins, agreeing that Taveras is a good matchup for him. He notes that Taveras is an expert at letting things happen to him and has a big head, making him easy to hit. Connor thinks Jenkins's low kicks and counter punching will be effective, and that Taveras's toughness won't be enough to overcome Jenkins's advantages. He cautions that Jenkins's game is thin, but Taveras is not the kind of fighter to expose it.

"Feels like a very good fight for Jenkins, honestly."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Sep 19, 2025 (9 days before fight)
No clear pick

James has not done tape study on this fight and passes on making a pick. He mentions he likes Jack Jenkins as a fighter but does not provide a prediction.

"I'm going to pass on this one, boys."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

The host notes Taveras is moving up to 145 lbs after weight issues at 135. He thinks Taveras will struggle against Jenkins' calf kicking and grappling game, keeping Taveras on the defensive and leading to a decision win for Jenkins.

"Diverus being forced to go up to 145 pounds now after multiple issues at 135 pounds. But I think he's going to struggle here against Jack Jenkins who has a great calf kicking game and a good grappling …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

The Guru picks Jack Jenkins, citing his ability to break bones with strikes and his kicking game. He notes Taveras is moving up from bantamweight and has been victimized by kicks before. He expects a sustained beating leading to a TKO in round two or three.

TKO in round 2 or 3
"I'm going with Jack Jenkins over Ramon."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

Zane picks Jenkins confidently, noting that Taveras has trouble with low kicks and has a big head that is easy to punch. He believes Jenkins's crushing low kicks and top game will be too much for Taveras, who is tough but not skilled enough to deter Jenkins. Zane expects Jenkins to look great in this fight, though he acknowledges Jenkins's game is narrow and he struggles against fighters who can control distance.

"Feels like a very good fight for Jenkins, honestly."
Fight Notes
MMA Vivisection podcast with Zane and Connor
MMA Vivisection podcast with Zane and Connor Expert 8 months, 1 week ago

**Pick:** Jack Jenkins (Unanimous) **Analysis:** This is a very favorable matchup for Jenkins. While acknowledging Jenkins has a narrow game (crushing low kicks, dangerous top position), Ramon Tavares is the perfect opponent to highlight those strengths. Tavares is a fighter who is an expert at letting things happen to him and had significant trouble with leg kicks in his fight with Davey Grant. This will be a fight where Jenkins looks dominant. **Props:** No specific props were mentioned.

Half the Battle Daniel
Half the Battle Daniel Expert 8 months, 1 week ago

**Pick:** Jack Jenkins **Analysis:** Major caveat: Jenkins is returning from a severe throat injury (air leak in thyroid cartilage). If Jenkins is healthy and returns to form, he will win decisively. Taveras is too heavy on his lead leg and highly susceptible to Jenkins' devastating leg kicks. **Props:** No specific props were mentioned.

Bookie Beatdown Cody
Bookie Beatdown Cody Expert 8 months, 1 week ago

**Pick:** Jack Jenkins **Analysis:** The primary reason for this pick is Jenkins' powerful leg kicks, which will be the deciding factor. Jenkins will be able to withstand Tavares' early boxing combinations and progressively break him down with leg kicks. Tavares has potential issues with making weight and traveling to Australia, which could affect his performance. **Props:** No specific props were mentioned.

Fight 4 VS Welterweight Completed
Neil Magny

Neil Magny W

31-15
Submission R3 3:08

Jake Matthews

Moneyline
FanDuel -320
KO/TKO
FanDuel +400
Submission
BetRivers +380
Decision
FanDuel +145

Neil Magny

Moneyline
4casters +355
KO/TKO
Cloudbet +1177
Submission
Cloudbet +1973
Decision
Cloudbet +721
Fighter Stats

Jake Matthews

Age31
Height5' 11"
Reach73.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Neil Magny

Age38
Height6' 3"
Reach80.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Jake Matthews

3.34SLpM
43.0%Str. Acc.
2.62SApM
60.0%Str. Def.
1.44TD Avg
41.0%TD Acc.
64.0%TD Def.
0.8Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Neil Magny

3.4SLpM
46.0%Str. Acc.
2.44SApM
51.0%Str. Def.
2.17TD Avg
39.0%TD Acc.
55.0%TD Def.
0.3Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

Angelo picks Jake Matthews, the biggest favorite on the card, citing his well-rounded skills and high level of competition. He believes Matthews will avoid Magny's clinch game and use takedowns and busy hands to win. He notes that Magny struggles against younger, faster fighters and that Matthews is not stupid enough to engage in a clinch battle.

"Jake Matthews is the pick. That's why he's a five to one favorite here. He was a six to1 favorite, so it did tighten a little bit, but I don't think that's a reflection of people losing confidence …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

Big Brady picks Jake Matthews to win by second-round submission. He believes Matthews has finally put it together and is well-rounded with good boxing, wrestling, and BJJ. He thinks Magny is on the decline and has been submitted in six of his UFC losses.

second round submission
"Give me Jake Matthews. Give me Jake Matthews by second round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

Cody picks Matthews, noting he has finally become consistent and is putting his skills together. He believes Matthews is a better striker than Magny now and can defend takedowns, forcing a striking match where Matthews should outland Magny. He also cites the hometown advantage and Magny's recent struggles against leg kicks and younger fighters.

"I got Jake Matthews at this line. He's the biggest favorite on the card, right?"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

Connor also picks Matthews, agreeing that Magny's jab-dependent pressure game has faded. He notes that Magny's recent wins have come against opponents who fell apart, and that Matthews's improved combination punching and wrestling could exploit Magny's vulnerabilities. Connor is cautious because Matthews has a history of reverting to a bad back-foot boxing style, but he thinks Matthews's recent performances show he has moved past that.

"I think I'll go with Matthews."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2025 (9 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

James confidently picks Jake Matthews, noting he is the biggest favorite on the card. He predicts a finish, possibly by arm triangle, as Magny is older and has been finished recently. He believes Matthews is in his prime and should win easily.

by submission (arm triangle) or inside the distance
"I'm actually going to predict the finish here now."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 15, 2025 (13 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

James picks Jake Matthews confidently, stating he is better everywhere—striking, wrestling, and power. He notes Matthews is in his prime at 31 and on the best run of his career, while Magny is an aging veteran with a poor ground game. He expects Matthews to take Magny down at will and possibly finish, but predicts a clear decision (30-27 or 29-28) as most likely.

"Jake Matthews is pretty confident pick here for me."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

The host expects Matthews to take a grapple-heavy approach like his last fight. He acknowledges Magny could have an advantage if the fight goes into deeper water, but thinks Matthews will do enough in the first 10-12 minutes to win on the scorecards.

"I'm expecting Matthews to take another grapple heavy approach just like he did last time around against Chitty and Jakuani. I think he might meet some resistance here and should this fight go into deeper water, it could …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

The Guru picks Jake Matthews, believing his well-rounded game and experience against long fighters like Neil Magny will pay off. He notes Matthews' recent submission win and thinks he can replicate that success. He predicts a TKO via low kicks and follow-up shots, calling it a coming-out party.

TKO via low kicks
"I'm going to go with Jake Matthews getting this one done."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

Zane picks Matthews, citing his recent improvements in combination punching and assertiveness. He notes that Magny looks vulnerable on the feet now and has lost his ability to put pressure with his jab. Zane thinks Matthews's wrestling and willingness to mix it up could be key, as Magny has historically struggled against wrestlers. He acknowledges that Matthews's past struggles are a concern, but believes the current version of Matthews is better.

"I think I'll go with Matthews."
Fight Notes
MMA Vivisection podcast with Zane and Connor
MMA Vivisection podcast with Zane and Connor Expert 8 months, 1 week ago

**Pick:** Jake Matthews (Unanimous) **Analysis:** This fight features two veterans on opposite career trajectories. Jake Matthews is finally improving, becoming more assertive with his striking, and rediscovering his wrestling. Conversely, Neil Magny is in decline, looking more vulnerable on the feet than ever, and his classic wins are now coming against shot opponents or fighters who gas out. The current, more confident version of Matthews is well-equipped to win. **Props:** No specific props were mentioned.

Half the Battle Daniel
Half the Battle Daniel Expert 8 months, 1 week ago

**Pick:** Jake Matthews **Analysis:** Matthews, at 31, is finally hitting his prime after a decade in the UFC. He's the smarter and more powerful fighter who will use leg kicks to set up a knockout. While respecting Magny's craftiness, the experienced Matthews won't make a crucial mistake that allows Magny to take over late. **Props:** Matthews by knockout.

Bookie Beatdown Cody
Bookie Beatdown Cody Expert 8 months, 1 week ago

**Pick:** Jake Matthews **Analysis:** The 31-year-old Matthews is in his prime and has shown significant improvement and consistency in his recent fights. Matthews is the better striker at this stage of their careers. Neil Magny, at 38, is a gatekeeper who has shown vulnerabilities to leg kicks and struggles against fighters who don't gas out. Fighting at home in Australia should also be an advantage for Matthews. **Props:** No specific props were mentioned.

Tom Nolan

Tom Nolan W

10-1
Submission R1 4:08
Fight 5 VS Lightweight Completed

Tom Nolan

Moneyline
Cloudbet -146
KO/TKO
Cloudbet +222
Submission
FanDuel +1000
Decision
FanDuel +350

Charlie Campbell

Moneyline
BetRivers +138
KO/TKO
Cloudbet +326
Submission
BetRivers +1300
Decision
BetMGM +650
Fighter Stats

Tom Nolan

Age26
Height6' 3"
Reach73.0"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Charlie Campbell

Age30
Height6' 0"
Reach72.0"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Tom Nolan

5.87SLpM
45.0%Str. Acc.
4.73SApM
48.0%Str. Def.
0.74TD Avg
22.0%TD Acc.
71.0%TD Def.
1.9Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Charlie Campbell

5.23SLpM
51.0%Str. Acc.
4.17SApM
55.0%Str. Def.
2.45TD Avg
36.0%TD Acc.
62.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

Angelo picks Tom Nolan over Charlie Campbell, believing Nolan's length, durability, and forward pressure will overcome Campbell's technical striking and leg kicks. He notes that Campbell's leg kicks require planting, which Nolan's movement will prevent. He expects a decision and suggests waiting for round line props.

Expects decision; suggests waiting for round line props.
"I'm going to pick Tom Nolan here. I think technique-wise, he's sort of equal with Charlie, but he's got better defense, or Charlie has better defense, but Tom is long. Tom is lean. Tom is durable. Only actual …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Charlie Campbell

Big Brady picks Charlie Campbell to win by first-round KO. He notes both fighters have power and questionable chins, but Campbell's killer instinct and Nolan's defensive flaws lead him to take the dog. He acknowledges it could go either way.

first round KO
"I'm gonna take the dog and Charlie Campbell. I'm gonna say Charlie Campbell gets an early knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Sep 23, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Charlie Campbell

Cody takes Campbell as a dog, citing Nolan's chin issues and poor takedown defense. He notes Campbell has power and can mix in wrestling, and that Nolan's tall frame makes him vulnerable to leg kicks and overhands. He also mentions Nolan's weight cut to 155 may be a factor.

"I'd take a dog shot here on Charlie Campbell"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

Connor also picks Nolan, agreeing that Campbell's power is inconsistent and that he doesn't set up his shots. He notes that Nolan is willing to scrap and will put pressure on Campbell, and that Campbell's tendency to fling himself into clinches will play into Nolan's hands. Connor thinks Nolan's chin is not great but good enough to withstand Campbell's power, and that Nolan's volume will win out.

"I guess I'll take Nolan too."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2025 (9 days before fight)
Charlie Campbell

James picks his friend Charlie Campbell, citing Campbell's striking ability and familiarity with Nolan from sparring. He believes Campbell has the power to knock out Nolan, who has been wobbled before. He is confident in Campbell's skills and rooting for him.

"I think Charlie has the chance to land clean on Tom Nolan and we've seen Tom Nolan knocked out before."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

The host expects Nolan's power to come through. He thinks Nolan will counter Campbell effectively, land big shots, mix in takedowns and threaten with a front choke, but ultimately a knee or elbow will connect and put Campbell out clean.

win by knockout (knee or elbow)
"I expect Nolan's power to end up coming through here. I think he'll be able to counter Campbell effectively, land some big shots, maybe mix in some takedowns and threaten with that front choke, but I think it'll …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

The Guru picks Tom Nolan, citing his height and reach advantage over Charlie Campbell, as well as Nolan's momentum and development. He notes Campbell's inactivity and believes Nolan's diverse striking (spinning kicks, low kicks) will be too much. He predicts a second-round TKO.

second round TKO
"I'm going with Tom Nolan over Charlie Campbell."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Tom Nolan

Zane picks Nolan, reasoning that Nolan is willing to scrap and will put pressure on Campbell, sitting down in the pocket and throwing tight combinations. He notes that Nolan has clinch offense and will attack off his back if taken down. Zane thinks Campbell's power is chancy and that he doesn't set up his shots well, making him vulnerable to Nolan's volume and pressure.

"I think I'll go with Nolan."
Fight Notes
MMA Vivisection podcast with Zane and Connor
MMA Vivisection podcast with Zane and Connor Expert 8 months, 1 week ago

**Pick:** Tom Nolan (Unanimous, but hesitant) **Analysis:** This is a 'bottom of the barrel pick 'em' between two raw fighters. Charlie Campbell is an athlete with some power, but lacks technical depth, combinations, and a real plan. Tom Nolan is less athletic but a harder 'scrapper' who will engage in the clinch and throw tight punches in the pocket. Unless Campbell lands a big, chancy knockout shot early, Nolan's willingness to scrap and apply pressure will win him the fight. **Props:** No specific props were mentioned.

Half the Battle Daniel
Half the Battle Daniel Expert 8 months, 1 week ago

**Pick:** Tom Nolan (slight lean) **Analysis:** This is a very close fight, but leaning towards Nolan due to his constant improvement, home-field advantage in Australia, and his awkward, long (6'3') fighting style that Campbell hasn't faced before. Both fighters may have durability issues, but Nolan's unique style gives him the edge. **Props:** No specific props were mentioned.

Bookie Beatdown Cody
Bookie Beatdown Cody Expert 8 months, 1 week ago

**Pick:** Charlie Campbell **Analysis:** Taking a shot on the underdog, citing Tom Nolan's questionable chin and struggles when pressured. Nolan has been knocked out before and was dropped in his fight against Victor Martinez. Campbell has enough power to potentially knock Nolan out and could also have a wrestling advantage, given Nolan's performance against Alex Reyes. **Props:** No specific props were mentioned.

Navajo Stirling

Navajo Stirling W

9-0
Decision R3 5:00
Fight 6 VS Light Heavyweight Completed

Navajo Stirling

Moneyline
BetOnline, 4casters -235
KO/TKO
BetOnline +135
Submission
FanDuel +1500
Decision
FanDuel +310

Rodolfo Bellato

Moneyline
Caesars +250
KO/TKO
FanDuel +650
Submission
FanDuel +1300
Decision
BetRivers +650
Fighter Stats

Navajo Stirling

Age28
Height6' 4"
Reach79.0"
Weight205 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Rodolfo Bellato

Age30
Height6' 3"
Reach77.0"
Weight205 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Navajo Stirling

6.25SLpM
52.0%Str. Acc.
2.67SApM
58.0%Str. Def.
0.98TD Avg
28.0%TD Acc.
82.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Rodolfo Bellato

5.37SLpM
60.0%Str. Acc.
5.86SApM
46.0%Str. Def.
1.38TD Avg
35.0%TD Acc.
94.0%TD Def.
0.2Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

Angelo picks Navajo Stirling, acknowledging the local hype but believing Stirling has a higher skill ceiling and has never quit. He notes that Rodolfo Bellato is decent but can be sloppy and has put on weird performances. However, he is not confident enough to bet at the current odds (around minus 300), as he hasn't seen elite takedown defense or power from Stirling.

"I'm going to pick Navajo Sterling. I think he has the higher ceiling as far as skill sets are concerned. I've never seen him quit and put on some [ __ ] weird performance. I've seen Ralpho do …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

Big Brady picks Navajo Stirling to win by second-round knockout. He praises Stirling's takedown defense, volume, and power, and criticizes Bellato's poor striking defense and tendency to eat punches. He believes Stirling will land a big shot and get his first UFC finish.

second round knockout
"I like Sterling here. I like Sterling to win this fight by knockout. I think he gets that first finish in the U."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

Cody picks Stirling, believing his striking is superior and he can knock out Bellato, who has poor durability. He acknowledges Bellato's wrestling could be a threat but thinks Stirling's length and improving takedown defense will allow him to get back up. He notes Stirling is young and improving, while Bellato is a glass cannon.

"I still feel like Sterling came over with just a kickboxing base. He's got very little experience. Only seven and0 as a pro now."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rodolfo Bellato

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Bellato is a steady, experienced fighter who can pressure and clinch for three rounds. He points out that Sterling has been struggling with lesser opponents and that Bellato's durability and consistency could be too much for the green prospect. He also mentions that Bellato can be caught cold early, but if he survives, he tends to warm up and get harder to hurt.

"I'll slide with you actually... Bellato if he's just going to go out there and be there and put together a physical fight on Sterling round after round, probably will get that chance."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2025 (9 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

James confidently picks Navajo Stirling to win by KO, citing Bellato's poor striking defense and history of being knocked out. He believes Stirling's striking is superior and that he will finally get his first UFC knockout. He acknowledges bias as Stirling trains at City Kickboxing.

by KO
"I predict Navajo Sterling to get a KO in this fight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 15, 2025 (13 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

James picks Navajo Sterling confidently, praising his striking pedigree from City Kickboxing and noting Bellato's poor UFC performances, including being badly hurt in multiple fights. He believes Sterling is a much better striker and will likely hurt Bellato, though he is unsure about the method—predicting a KO but acknowledging Bellato's toughness could lead to a decision.

knockout
"I'm picking Navajo Sterling in this one. I'm picking Navajo Sterling via KO in this one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

The host believes Stirling will pick apart Bellato with relative ease. He thinks even if Bellato tries to take the fight to the ground, Stirling's defenses are good enough to thwart that and then pick apart Bellato and win by knockout.

win by knockout
"I think Sterling will be able to pick apart Bellato with relative ease here. Even if Bellto looks to take this fight to the ground, I think Sterling's defenses are good enough to thwart that and then from …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

The Guru picks Navajo Stirling confidently, seeing him as a fundamentally sound striker with underrated grappling. He believes the UFC is feeding him Rodolfo Bellato as a favorable matchup, similar to the Goutierre experiment. He expects a dominant TKO win, possibly earning a $50k bonus.

TKO; 50k bonus
"I'm gonna go with Navajo Sterling. I think he's better, man."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rodolfo Bellato

Zane thinks Bellato's steady pressure and clinch work will be a tough test for the green Sterling. He notes that Sterling has struggled with basic pressure from lesser opponents, and Bellato's consistency could force Sterling to fight back. However, he acknowledges Sterling could catch Bellato early with a big shot.

Odds comment: lines should be very close; Sterling opened -155 now -235, Bellato opened +135 now +200
"I think this might be the point where he takes his first loss... Bellato is the picture of steadiness... I think he might be able to take the win off of Sterling."
Fight Notes
Half the Battle Daniel
Half the Battle Daniel Expert 8 months, 1 week ago

**Pick:** Navajo Sterling **Analysis:** Very high on Sterling as an undefeated prospect with rapid improvement. Bellato is slow, hittable, and 'chinny.' Sterling will use his speed and technique to chop Bellato down with calf kicks and score his first UFC knockout. Sterling is also Fighter to Watch. **Props:** Sterling by knockout.

Bookie Beatdown Cody
Bookie Beatdown Cody Expert 8 months, 1 week ago

**Pick:** Navajo Sterling **Analysis:** Sterling is favored due to Bellato's significant durability issues - Bellato has been knocked out by Vitor Petrino twice and dropped by others. Sterling's striking is better and he's the bigger, longer fighter. While Bellato's wrestling could be a threat, he'll tire if he has to shoot for multiple takedowns. **Props:** No specific props were mentioned.

Cam Rowston

Cam Rowston W

15-3
KO R1 2:41
Fight 7 VS Middleweight Completed

Cam Rowston

Moneyline
Caesars +160
KO/TKO
BetRivers +600
Submission
FanDuel +700
Decision
FanDuel +550

Andre Petroski

Moneyline
4casters -159
KO/TKO
FanDuel +700
Submission
FanDuel +470
Decision
BetWay +163
Fighter Stats

Cam Rowston

Age31
Height6' 3"
Reach78"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Andre Petroski

Age34
Height6' 0"
Reach73.0"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Career Averages - Cam Rowston

4.26SLpM
46.0%Str. Acc.
2.62SApM
51.0%Str. Def.
0.5TD Avg
50.0%TD Acc.
33.0%TD Def.
0.5Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Andre Petroski

2.81SLpM
49.0%Str. Acc.
2.79SApM
53.0%Str. Def.
3.15TD Avg
51.0%TD Acc.
86.0%TD Def.
1.3Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Andre Petroski

Angelo picks Andre Petroski despite his unreliability (knocked himself out shooting a takedown). He believes Petroski is the better wrestler with more power, and that Cam Rowston's quick turnaround and lack of elite skills make this too much too soon. Angelo notes Petroski's fight IQ and ability to adapt game plans, while Rowston is a good striker but has poor wrestling.

"Andre Petroski is too well-rounded, has too many skills, was already in fight camp. Is he unreliable? Yeah, sure. Is he the better wrestler? Yes. Does he have more power in his hands? Yes."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Cam Rowston

Big Brady picks Cam Rowston to win by third-round submission. He acknowledges Petroski has a clear path via takedowns but questions his chin, cardio, and short-notice travel. He believes Rowston can capitalize on Petroski's fatigue and mistakes, potentially snatching a submission late.

third round submission
"I'm actually going to take the dog here. Very unpopular pick, but I'm going to say Ralston wins this fight by third round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Sep 23, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Cam Rowston

Cody picks Rowston as a dog, citing his size, cardio, and get-up game. He believes Petroski's low volume and cardio issues will be exposed as Rowston comes forward and lands strikes. He notes Rowston trains with elite strikers and has the hometown advantage, but admits it's a risky pick.

"I'm going to take the dog shot on Cam Roen. He's like plus 120 right now. Andre Petroski is - 145. This is in fact the PRP pick."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Andre Petroski

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Rowston's only notable loss to Torres Finney showed he can be neutralized by a grappler. He notes that Petroski has the power and wrestling to handle Rowston, and that Rowston's aggression will likely lead him into Petroski's game. He also points out that Rowston's competition has been terrible.

"Yeah, I'll take him over Rowston because a big dumb galoot who will grapple with him... Rowston is not ready for a step up."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Sep 19, 2025 (9 days before fight)
Cam Rowston

James picks Cam Rowston despite acknowledging his bias as a City Kickboxing affiliate. He believes Rowston's takedown defense is technically sound and that Petroski's cardio fades in round two, while Rowston can capitalize on the feet. He admits the pick is influenced by bias and that Petroski's jiu-jitsu is a threat if he gets top position.

"I'm going to take Cam Roen in this fight. I'm going to take Cam Ro."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Andre Petroski

The host expects Petroski to use his wrestling and power striking to muzzle Rowston. He predicts Petroski will accumulate control time, good top position, and land shots on the feet to win on the scorecards.

"I expect Petroski to utilize his wrestling effectively and power striking approach to really muzzle Roston. And I think that will lead to uh Petrosi acrewing a bunch of control time, some good top position, and getting off …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Andre Petroski

The Guru picks Andre Petroski, believing his chain wrestling will overwhelm Cam Rowston, who has been taken down repeatedly by lesser grapplers like Torres Finney. He expects Petroski to secure takedowns and finish via ground-and-pound or submission, possibly an arm triangle in the third round.

third round TKO or submission (arm triangle)
"I'm going to go with Andre Petrosky getting this one done um by decision or by late rounds finish."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Andre Petroski

Zane sees Petroski as a much more experienced and proven UFC fighter, while Rowston is a limited prospect who was blanketed by Torres Finney. He notes that Rowston's wins are against terrible competition and that he stands tall and tries to grapple, which plays into Petroski's strengths. He is surprised Petroski is only a slight favorite.

Odds comment: surprised Petroski is only a slight favorite; opened -220 now -175, Rowston opened +185 now +150
"I'll take him over Rowston because a big dumb galoot who will grapple with him... Rowston is not ready for a step up."
Fight Notes
Half the Battle Daniel
Half the Battle Daniel Expert 8 months, 1 week ago

**Pick:** Cam Roesler **Analysis:** Upset pick based on lack of trust in Petroski, who is a 'hot and cold' fighter that struggles with adversity. While Petroski will get takedowns, the larger and tougher Roesler will get back up, make Petroski work, drain his cardio, and land more significant damage on the feet. **Props:** No specific props were mentioned.

Bookie Beatdown Cody
Bookie Beatdown Cody Expert 8 months, 1 week ago

**Pick:** Cam Roesler (PRP Pick - 'Probably a bad pick') **Analysis:** This is a value pick on the underdog. Petroski is more skilled, but has significant concerns about his cardio and low output. Roesler, being the much larger man with a good gas tank and a decent get-up game, can wear Petroski down. The effort to take down and control the bigger Roesler will drain Petroski's stamina, allowing Roesler to take over late. **Props:** No specific props were mentioned.

Jamie Mullarkey

Jamie Mullarkey W

18-9
Decision R3 5:00
Fight 8 VS Lightweight Completed

Jamie Mullarkey

Moneyline
BetOnline, Bovada -105
KO/TKO
BetWay +450
Submission
Bovada +1800
Decision
BetRivers +190

Rolando Bedoya

Moneyline
Caesars +115
KO/TKO
BetRivers +440
Submission
FanDuel +1900
Decision
FanDuel +280
Fighter Stats

Jamie Mullarkey

Age31
Height6' 0"
Reach74.0"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Rolando Bedoya

Age29
Height5' 11"
Reach74.0"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Jamie Mullarkey

4.1SLpM
46.0%Str. Acc.
4.28SApM
54.0%Str. Def.
2.46TD Avg
30.0%TD Acc.
70.0%TD Def.
0.1Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Rolando Bedoya

6.23SLpM
47.0%Str. Acc.
5.5SApM
52.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
75.0%TD Def.
0.2Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Angelo picks Jamie Mullarkey despite his weak chin, because he believes Mullarkey is the better overall fighter with good grappling and striking. He notes that Mullarkey's opponent Rolando Bedoya has no power and is essentially a human punching bag. Angelo is surprised Mullarkey is the underdog and thinks the line will swing back.

"I think Jamie Malarkey wins this fight. I don't have a bet on him just yet. I'm going to keep an eye on the line. It's kind of tightening, but it hasn't tightened enough for me to be …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Rolando Bedoya

Big Brady picks Rolando Bedoya to win by third-round knockout. He argues that while Mullarkey is more skilled, his chin is extremely fragile and he has been knocked out or dropped repeatedly. He believes Bedoya's durability and volume will be key, and that Mullarkey will eventually get hurt. He notes Bedoya is 0-3 in the UFC but tough.

third round knockout
"I'm going to say Bedoya does knock him out. I'm going to say Bedoya knocks out Malarkey."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Cody picks Mullarkey, believing his striking and wrestling will be enough to outwork Bedoya. He notes Bedoya lacks power and has poor takedown defense, while Mullarkey has fought better strikers and mixed in takedowns. He acknowledges Mullarkey's chin is a concern but thinks Bedoya doesn't have the power to exploit it.

"I end up taking Jamie Malarkey. No doubt about it."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Connor agrees, emphasizing that Bedoya is a slow, unpowerful kickboxer with no footwork or speed, while Mullarkey is a tough wrestle-boxer who will make him fight tooth and nail. He notes that Mullarkey's losses are to athletic monsters, and Bedoya is not that. He expects Mullarkey to win a solid all-round MMA fight.

"Yeah, I mean... Mullarkey's got more breadth, more options, and I don't think Bedoya is nearly dangerous enough to put him away."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Sep 19, 2025 (9 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

James picks Jamie Mullarkey with his logical head, citing Mullarkey's better boxing fundamentals and takedown threat. However, he is very hesitant because Mullarkey's chin has degraded from wars and Bedoya throws high volume. He admits he might bet a Bedoya KO prop if the odds are right, showing low conviction.

Bedoya by KO (potential bet)
"I'm going to pick Jamie Malaki. I'm going to go with my logical head, but honestly, if they give me a prop on Bedoya, I'll probably KO prop on Bedoya, I might take the shot."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

The host thinks Mullarkey is the better overall fighter. He expects Mullarkey's durability to hold up and for him to mix in takedowns and volume to stifle Bedoya and win on the scorecards.

"I think Malarkey is the better overall fighter. If his durability can hold up, look for him to put together a better body of work, mixing in takedowns and volume to really stifle Bedoya and win this fight …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rolando Bedoya

The Guru picks Rolando Bedoya over Jamie Mullarkey, citing Mullarkey's tendency to get wobbled and cut open. He believes Bedoya can handle Mullarkey's physicality, as seen in his fight against Chaos Williams. He expects a scrap where Mullarkey is more prone to damage.

"I'm going against Jamie Malarkey here. I'm gonna go over Orlando Badoya."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Zane sees Mullarkey as having more breadth and options than Bedoya, who is a slow, unpowerful pocket kickboxer. He notes that Mullarkey's wrestle-boxing approach and durability should be enough to outwork Bedoya, who has lost all three UFC fights and looked bad. He points out that Mullarkey has beaten athletic fighters and lost only to elite power punchers.

Odds comment: glad the gambler has realized Bedoya shouldn't be a favorite; Mullarkey opened +140 now -120, Bedoya opened -160 now +100
"I'll take Jamie Mullarkey. He's got more breadth, more options, and I don't think Bedoya is nearly dangerous enough to put him away."
Fight Notes
Half the Battle Daniel
Half the Battle Daniel Expert 8 months, 1 week ago

**Pick:** Rolando Bedoya **Analysis:** This pick is based entirely on the belief that Mullarkey's chin is 'gone.' Despite Bedoya not being a known power puncher, Mullarkey's durability is so compromised that Bedoya could score a surprise knockout. **Props:** Bedoya by knockout.

Bookie Beatdown Cody
Bookie Beatdown Cody Expert 8 months, 1 week ago

**Pick:** Jamie Mullarkey **Analysis:** The main factor is Bedoya's perceived lack of power. While Mullarkey's chin is a major weakness, Bedoya is a high-volume, low-impact striker who has struggled to earn respect from judges. Mullarkey is the better striker with more power and can also mix in takedowns against Bedoya, who has a poor takedown defense percentage. **Props:** No specific props were mentioned.

Colby Thicknesse

Colby Thicknesse W

9-1
Decision R3 5:00
Fight 9 VS Bantamweight Completed

Colby Thicknesse

Moneyline
Caesars +150
KO/TKO
BetRivers +850
Submission
BetOnline +1800
Decision
BetRivers +335

Josias Musasa

Moneyline
4casters -149
KO/TKO
BetRivers +200
Submission
FanDuel +1600
Decision
BetMGM +300
Fighter Stats

Colby Thicknesse

Age26
Height5' 7"
Reach69.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Josias Musasa

Age27
Height5' 8"
Reach74.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Career Averages - Colby Thicknesse

3.33SLpM
42.0%Str. Acc.
2.8SApM
50.0%Str. Def.
1.0TD Avg
9.0%TD Acc.
50.0%TD Def.
0.5Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Josias Musasa

3.19SLpM
45.0%Str. Acc.
4.39SApM
36.0%Str. Def.
0.9TD Avg
50.0%TD Acc.
81.0%TD Def.
0.5Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Josias Musasa

Angelo picks Josias Musasa over Colby Thicknesse, believing Musasa's speed, power, and striking will be too much for Thicknesse, who he considers not very good. He notes that Thicknesse is primarily a grappler but lacks the takedowns to get Musasa down, while Musasa hits hard and moves forward. He references Musasa's loss to Carlos Vera but attributes it to Vera's overhands and debut nerves.

"I think Josas wins this fight. I don't think Kobe's very good. He's certainly the better grappler and if it ends up on the ground, Kobe should have an advantage, but he doesn't have good enough takedowns, I …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Josias Musasa

Big Brady picks Josias Musasa to win by decision. He views Musasa as having a higher ceiling and better striking power, while Thicknesse may not be UFC caliber. He notes Musasa has solid takedown defense and should keep the fight standing. He considers this a buy-low spot after Musasa lost as a huge favorite.

"I like Mousasa. Not sure I'm going to bet him because he is so he's still very green, but I think Mousasa gets it done. I'll say Mousasa wins this fight and wins this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Colby Thicknesse

Cody picks Thicknesse, believing he can outwork Musasa with better grappling and cardio. He notes Musasa's power is overrated and his grappling is poor, and that Thicknesse can take a punch and drag him into deep waters. He also mentions Musasa has never fought outside Africa and looked poor in his UFC debut.

"I think that Kobe thickness wins this fight."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Josias Musasa

Connor agrees, noting that Musasa has way more potential than Thicknesse, who is a mess of tricks without fundamentals. He thinks Thicknesse's awkwardness will not be enough to handle Musasa's athleticism and aggression. However, he acknowledges that Musasa is still very raw and could lose if he hasn't improved.

"Yeah, I think you're right. Musasa has way more potential. Thicknesse is very liable to put himself in awful positions."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Sep 19, 2025 (9 days before fight)
No clear pick

James has not done tape study on this fight and declines to make a pick. He briefly notes Musasa is a physical fighter and that Thicknesse may struggle to take him down, but does not commit to a prediction.

"I'm not going to break this one down too much cuz I haven't done a tape study."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Josias Musasa

The host believes Musasa's raw athleticism and power will allow him to land big shots on Thicknesse and put him away. He acknowledges Thicknesse has grappling but expects Musasa to utilize explosivity and power to catch Thicknesse and knock him out cold.

win by knockout
"I believe Mousasa's raw athleticism and power will allow him to land those big shots on thickness and eventually put him away. ... I expect Mousasa to utilize athleticism, his just explosivity, sheer power, and he'll eventually catch …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Colby Thicknesse

The Guru picks Colby Thicknesse as a slight underdog, believing he is more fundamentally sound than Josias Musasa. He notes Thicknesse's competitive performance against Alejandra Turia and questions Musasa's level of competition, suggesting he was signed due to his African origin rather than skill. He sees Thicknesse's training with Volk as an advantage.

"I think KBY thickness is a slight underdog here. And I'm going to take KBY thickness as an underdog."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Josias Musasa

Zane thinks Musasa's athletic potential, speed, power, and aggression will be too much for the awkward and fundamentally lacking Thicknesse. He notes that Thicknesse is very liable to put himself in bad positions trying to avoid Musasa's flurries. However, he acknowledges that Musasa is still raw and could lose if Thicknesse shows craft.

Odds comment: should be close to even; Thicknesse opened +250 now +130, Musasa opened -300 now -150
"I'll take Musasa here. He's fearless, aggressive, really fast, and hits hard. Thicknesse is very liable to put himself in awful positions."
Fight Notes
Half the Battle Daniel
Half the Battle Daniel Expert 8 months, 1 week ago

**Pick:** Analysis needed **Analysis:** Fight identified from timestamp but analysis details not provided in original text. **Props:** No specific props were mentioned.

Michelle Montague

Michelle Montague W

8-0
Decision R3 5:00
Fight 10 VS Women's Bantamweight Completed

Michelle Montague

Moneyline
FanDuel -210
KO/TKO
FanDuel +1500
Submission
BetOnline +180
Decision
BetRivers +235

Luana Carolina

Moneyline
4casters +206
KO/TKO
BetOnline +2200
Submission
FanDuel +3000
Decision
BetMGM +300
Fighter Stats

Michelle Montague

Age32
Height5' 9"
Reach68"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Luana Carolina

Age32
Height5' 6"
Reach69.0"
Weight125 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Michelle Montague

2.73SLpM
46.0%Str. Acc.
3.2SApM
41.0%Str. Def.
5.0TD Avg
71.0%TD Acc.
0.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Luana Carolina

4.65SLpM
51.0%Str. Acc.
3.46SApM
51.0%Str. Def.
0.3TD Avg
37.0%TD Acc.
68.0%TD Def.
0.6Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Darrell Montague

Angelo picks Michelle Montague (Darrell Montague) over Luana Carolina, citing Montague's wrestling and jiu-jitsu background at an international level, her willingness to strike, and her size. He acknowledges Luana Carolina's takedown defense and clinch work but believes Montague's aggression and grappling will be too much. He dismisses the knockout loss to Molly McCann as a fluke.

"Michelle Monte wins this fight. She's going to be the pick. I am surprised to see the line continuing to widen because we do have a proven fighter in the way."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Darrell Montague

Big Brady picks Darrell Montague to win by second-round submission. He highlights Montague's submission expertise, noting all six wins are by rear-naked choke. He acknowledges Montague is one-dimensional and has poor striking, but believes she will get a takedown due to her physicality and Carolina's questionable takedown defense. He notes Carolina has been taken down frequently in recent fights.

submission, second round
"I like Montigue here. I like Montigue by submission. I'll say second round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Darrell Montague

Cody picks Montague, citing her grappling pedigree and size advantage moving down to 135. He notes Carolina has been taken down in her last eight fights and is moving up in weight, while Montague is a strong grappler with a rear-naked choke streak. He warns about Montague's cardio but thinks she can win the first two rounds.

"Michelle Montigu bigger, stronger, have the fan support, trains at at love it, and probably will get takedowns just like the other ones have done."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Michelle Montague

Connor agrees, noting that Montague's recent fights show her shooting immediately for back takes, which will be a problem for Carolina. He also mentions that Carolina's chin is high and she relies on reach, but Montague has the same reach and is bigger. He thinks Montague's grappling will be decisive.

"What we've seen from Montague in her past couple bouts is somebody who goes out immediately and shoots and works for back takes, and I think that'll just wreck Carolina."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2025 (9 days before fight)
Darrell Montague

James is confident in Michelle Montague (Darrell Montague) due to her massive size advantage and elite back-taking ability. He notes she has submitted every opponent via rear-naked choke and that Luana Carolina is moving up from flyweight, making her vulnerable to grappling. He predicts a submission win.

by submission (rear-naked choke)
"Michelle Montigu via submission is my official prediction."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Darrell Montague

The host expresses concern about Montague's weight cut to 135 lbs for the first time, but if successful, expects her to ragdoll Luana Carolina and secure another submission victory. The pick is conditional on making weight.

submission victory
"The weight is a big concern here for Montigue, who's going to be coming down to 135 lbs for the first time in her career, but if she does this successfully, I expect her to go out there …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Darrell Montague

The Guru picks Michelle Montigue (Darrell Montague) confidently, impressed by her consistent first-round submission finishes and amateur experience. He sees Luana Carolina as a potential fraud check but believes Montigue's training at American Top Team and dominant style will lead to another first-round rear-naked choke victory.

first round rear-naked choke
"I'm going to go with Michelle Montigue getting this one done over Lanna Karolina."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Michelle Montague

Zane sees Montague as a bigger, stronger fighter who will shoot for takedowns and back takes, which should wreck Carolina. He notes that Carolina's success depends on being taller and longer, but Montague is two inches taller with the same reach and looks more muscular. He also points out that Montague has shown a consistent ability to stay on the back foot and outpoint opponents if needed.

"Montague will be one of the few women Carolina has ever fought who is bigger than her... She may just feel like a much bigger, stronger fighter."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Brando Peričić

Brando Peričić W

7-1
KO R1 1:55
Fight 11 VS Heavyweight Completed

Brando Peričić

Moneyline
Cloudbet -192
KO/TKO
BetOnline -160
Submission
BetOnline +1000
Decision
BetOnline +900

Elisha Ellison

No odds available.

Fighter Stats

Brando Peričić

Age31
Height6' 5"
Reach79"
Weight245 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Elisha Ellison

Age29
Height6' 0"
Reach78"
Weight238 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Brando Peričić

12.91SLpM
64.0%Str. Acc.
3.23SApM
55.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
80.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Elisha Ellison

1.57SLpM
33.0%Str. Acc.
15.13SApM
40.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
0.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Brando Peričić

Angelo picks Brando Peričić, noting his high-level kickboxing background, athleticism, and training at City Kickboxing. He acknowledges the hype and the documentary crew but believes Brando's professional combat sports experience and size advantage over the undersized, part-time fighter Elisha Ellison will prevail. He mentions he bet on Brando at minus 120 and warns the current odds are becoming unbettable.

Bet on Brando at minus 120 a week ago; current odds minus 170 are unbettable.
"Brando's the pick. I have to bet on him. The odds are starting to get unbettable, though. What is he going to a two to1 favorite with only five for ever professional fights against an a fast, athletic, …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Brando Peričić

Big Brady picks Brando Peričić to win by first-round knockout. He notes Peričić has a kickboxing background, trains with City Kickboxing, and has a significant height and reach advantage. He also mentions Peričić has shown some grappling ability. He expects the fight to end early, as the under on 1.5 rounds is heavily juiced.

under 1.5 rounds heavily juiced at -225
"Give me Peric to wins this fight and win this fight by first round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Sep 23, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Brando Peričić

Cody picks Peričić, believing he has more power and a slightly better gas tank. He notes both are one-dimensional bangers, but Peričić is a smoother operator. He acknowledges the line has moved too far and it's a risky bet, but still thinks Peričić lands something.

"I just think Brando Perachic probably just lands something and put some money."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Brando Peričić

Connor picks Peričić, noting that he seems violent and coordinated, and that his only loss came on short notice with a week's excuse. He thinks Peričić's size and aggression will be enough against Ellison, who fights like an inexperienced fighter trying to figure things out. However, he acknowledges both have cardio issues.

"I'm gonna take Perišić. He seems plenty violent and he's huge."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2025 (9 days before fight)
Brando Peričić

James is confident in his friend Brando Peričić, predicting a first-round knockout. He believes Peričić is a cleaner, harder hitter and that Ellison is not on the same level. He acknowledges his bias but states he truly believes Peričić will win by KO in round one.

wins in round 1 by KO
"He's going to knock out Elisha Ellison in round one and I truly believe that."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Elisha Ellison

The host notes both fighters are low-level heavyweights making their UFC debut and tend to slow down in the second round. He favors Ellison's athleticism, speed, power, and possibly grappling to get the better of Peričić, predicting a knockout victory.

win by knockout
"I believe it's going to be Ellison's athleticism, speed, and power, but also maybe his grappling that he might be able to get the better of Peric here. But I think we'll see Ellison eventually incorpic's lights out …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Brando Peričić

The Guru leans towards Brando Peričić in a 50/50 fight, citing his training at City Kickboxing and the homecoming advantage in Australia. He notes Ellison's jiu-jitsu background but questions his competition level. He sees Peričić as the favorite and trusts his gym over Ellison's unknown camp.

"I might go Brandon Peric just based on that, but I'm going to pick him anyway."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Elisha Ellison

Zane picks Ellison mostly as a 'why not' pick, noting that both fighters are inexperienced heavyweights with cardio issues. He thinks Ellison is violent and fast, and that Peričić's only loss came when he gassed. He expects a sloppy fight that could end quickly or become a clinch fest.

Odds comment: no degenerate should bet on this; Peričić opened +185 now -225, Ellison opened -220 now +190
"I'll take Ellison. Why not?"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Fight 12 VS Women's Strawweight Completed
Alexia Thainara

Alexia Thainara W

14-1
Decision R3 5:00

Loma Lookboonmee

Moneyline
Cloudbet +212
KO/TKO
BetOnline +2000
Submission
BetOnline +1100
Decision
BetOnline +275

Alexia Thainara

Moneyline
BetOnline -240
KO/TKO
BetOnline +800
Submission
BetOnline +275
Decision
BetOnline +135
Fighter Stats

Loma Lookboonmee

Age30
Height5' 1"
Reach61.0"
Weight115 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Alexia Thainara

Age30
Height5' 4"
Reach67.0"
Weight115 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Loma Lookboonmee

3.67SLpM
55.0%Str. Acc.
2.52SApM
53.0%Str. Def.
1.81TD Avg
50.0%TD Acc.
68.0%TD Def.
0.1Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Alexia Thainara

4.62SLpM
43.0%Str. Acc.
2.46SApM
59.0%Str. Def.
4.54TD Avg
57.0%TD Acc.
100.0%TD Def.
1.8Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Alexia Thainara

Angelo picks Alexia Thainara over Loma Lookboonmee, citing Thainara's strength, aggression, and ability to ragdoll opponents. He notes that Loma is tiny and has poor jiu-jitsu when taken down, while Thainara will charge forward with bombs and takedowns. He is more confident in Thainara than in Navajo Stirling, despite Loma being a better fighter than Bellato.

"Alexia Tinara wins this fight. Alexia Tanara may ragdoll Loma and make Lma look stupid. We have not seen that yet. Loma has not looked stupid in any fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Alexia Thainara

Big Brady picks Alexia Thainara to win by decision. He notes Thainara has significant size and reach advantages, improved striking, and a strong grappling game. He believes she can get takedowns and control the fight, though he admits the line is a bit wide and disrespectful to Loma.

"I'm going to say Tyara wins this fight. DHNR wins this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Alexia Thainara

Cody picks Thainara, citing her size, volume, and wrestling. He notes Lookboonmee is low-volume and has struggled against volume strikers, while Thainara is physically strong and can mix in takedowns. He also mentions Lookboonmee's past mental health issues and inactivity.

"I think wins. I'm not going to waste too much of your time on this one."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Alexia Thainara

Connor agrees, noting that Lookboonmee's technical advantages on the feet may not matter if Thainara can get the fight to the ground. He points out that Lookboonmee has a history of being passive and giving up rounds, and that Thainara's strength and grappling could overwhelm her. He also mentions that Lookboonmee doesn't have power to keep Thainara off.

"I think you have to take Thainara here. Lookboonmee is a known quantity who is essentially probably always going to be stuck as a fairly low level gatekeeper."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2025 (9 days before fight)
Alexia Thainara

James is confident in Alexia Thainara due to her superior grappling. He believes Thainara will take Lookboonmee down and control the fight, potentially by submission. He notes Lookboonmee's takedown defense has improved but is still vulnerable against a high-level grappler.

by submission (potential)
"I like Tyara here. I like Tyara to get a submission here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Alexia Thainara

The host believes Alexia Thainara is one of the best fighters from the Contender Series last season. He expects her to take the Thai fighter to the ground and find a submission within two rounds, indicating a confident pick with a specific method and round prediction.

submission within two rounds
"I think Theara is one of the best fighters to come out of that contender series from last season. And I think we'll see her continue her winning ways here by taking the Thai fighter to the ground …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Loma Lookboonmee

The Guru picks Loma Lookboonmee as an underdog, believing she is underrated and has more UFC experience. He notes her strong clinch work and base, making her hard to take down, unlike Molly McCann who was submitted by Thainara. He expects a close decision win, 29-28, and thinks the odds should be closer to even.

over 41.5 significant strikes for Lookboonmee; plus 200 underdog; should be evens fight
"I'm going to go with Luma Look Boom over Alexa. I am a Lumalook Boom enjoyer."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Alexia Thainara

Zane thinks Thainara's strength and power will be too much for Lookboonmee, who is consistently weaker than her opponents. He notes that Lookboonmee can be passive and make questionable decisions, and that Thainara is a ferocious brawler with strong grappling. He believes Thainara is an actual prospect in the division.

Odds comment: Lookboonmee opened +130 now +195, Thainara opened -150 now -230
"I think you have to take Thainara here. I think she's an actual prospect in this division and Lookboonmee is a known quantity."
Fight Notes
Half the Battle Daniel
Half the Battle Daniel Expert 8 months, 1 week ago

**Pick:** Alexa Grasso **Analysis:** Grasso is the more talented, physical, and confident fighter. Her significant height and reach advantage, combined with her well-rounded Muay Thai and grappling, will be too much for the much smaller Lookboonmee. **Props:** No specific props were mentioned.


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