Melissa Croden

2-1
Record
Age / DOB 35
(Apr 12, 1991)
Height 5' 9"
Weight 135 lbs.
Reach 68"
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages
4.1 Sig. Strikes / Min
48.0% Sig. Strike Acc.
1.83 Absorbed / Min
53.0% Strike Defense
1.02 TD Avg / 15 min
50.0% TD Accuracy
66.0% TD Defense
0.3 Sub. / Fight
Win Methods (2)
KO/TKO 1
Submission 0
Decision 1
Loss Methods (1)
KO/TKO 0
Submission 0
Decision 1

Fight History

Result / Opponent
Event & Date
Method/Round
Links
Comments
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Melissa Croden 0 69 of 153 45% 92 of 185 4 of 8 50% 1 0 5:12
Daria Zhelezniakova 0 41 of 118 34% 81 of 163 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Melissa Croden 0 15 of 46 32% 15 of 46 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:16
Daria Zhelezniakova 0 14 of 40 35% 22 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Melissa Croden 0 27 of 56 48% 31 of 61 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:39
Daria Zhelezniakova 0 14 of 45 31% 20 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Melissa Croden 0 27 of 51 52% 46 of 78 3 of 4 75% 1 0 3:17
Daria Zhelezniakova 0 13 of 33 39% 39 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Melissa Croden 69 of 153 45% 51 of 121 12 of 24 6 of 8 43 of 115 17 of 25 9 of 13
Daria Zhelezniakova 41 of 118 34% 30 of 100 7 of 14 4 of 4 35 of 106 6 of 12 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Melissa Croden 15 of 46 32% 9 of 35 4 of 8 2 of 3 13 of 44 2 of 2 0 of 0
Daria Zhelezniakova 14 of 40 35% 9 of 31 2 of 6 3 of 3 11 of 36 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Melissa Croden 27 of 56 48% 21 of 44 2 of 7 4 of 5 20 of 43 7 of 13 0 of 0
Daria Zhelezniakova 14 of 45 31% 9 of 37 4 of 7 1 of 1 12 of 39 2 of 6 0 of 0
3 Melissa Croden 27 of 51 52% 21 of 42 6 of 9 0 of 0 10 of 28 8 of 10 9 of 13
Daria Zhelezniakova 13 of 33 39% 12 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0 12 of 31 1 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Melissa Croden vs. Darya Zhelezniakova
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Croden (-160); Zheleznyakova (+130)

Round 1
With a 100% finish rate still in her pocket, Alberta native Croden (7-3, 1-1 UFC)—quick note to all those who watched the Shillan & Duffy preview show for this one and thought this fight card was going down in the province of Alberta: tonight’s action is in southern Manitoba, just north of the shared border of North Dakota and Minnesota, two provinces to the right of Alberta. Croden will still be the favored athlete in the building of the two, as she faces off Russian striker Zheleznyakova (10-2, 2-1 UFC). The two bantamweights come to blows with referee Jerin Valel calling the shots, and they touch ‘em up before engaging.
It is all about the jab in the early going for the two bantamweights, with the two standing relatively the same size and presenting a similar fist-first style. Jabs lead to follow-ups, which leads to an unexpected trading of leather in the first 30 seconds. Croden thinks twice about throwing caution to the wind to just brawl and resets to work her way forward at her own pace. Zheleznyakova chops at her foe’s leg with a hefty kick and circles away from the power from the Canadian, dodging a head kick and stepping in to strike. Croden drives her away with a quick one-two, and Zheleznyakova still manages to get in her face with a single fist. They crash together and end up clinched, trading knees until they decide against doing this any further. It is not a mirror match, but it is fairly close to that. One after the other, they slug one another in the chops. Croden throws a hard right hand, takes one right back, and is amped up and tries to force “Iron Lady” into a brawl. Zheleznyakova does not oblige her, instead strafing to either side.
Zheleznyakova kicks low to swing high, and she moves all the way around the cage to time her way in with a short flurry. Zheleznyakova gets a front kick through the guard, and when she engages further, Croden ties her up to grapple. Croden bullies the Russian to the fencing, looking perhaps for a body lock. Zheleznyakova keeps circling away to her right, away from Croden’s power, and this includes breaking out of a clinch. Zheleznyakova checks a kick to sling a one-two, and she lets a head kick fly past her harmlessly. Zheleznyakova steps forward to bloody Croden’s nose with a one-two, and her movement is flustering the Canadian. Zheleznyakova tries to engage again in a quick blitz, and Croden stonewalls her and shoves her back. The deliberately paced round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Zheleznyakova
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Zheleznyakova
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Zheleznyakova

Round 2
Zheleznyakova races out of her corner to engage as the second round kicks off, and she does so right into the fists of her waiting adversary. Croden welcomes this so she can score effectively, forcing Zheleznyakova to retreat very soon after she starts trading. Croden whiffs on four fast punches because Zheleznyakova is already out of range, and she is stuck chasing while blood leaks from her nose. Zheleznyakova keeps moving, racking up plenty of steps while avoiding the worst of what flies her way time and again. Croden walks into the occasional jab from the Russian, who is largely playing an avoidance-first game that may not be the most aesthetically pleasing from a “just bleed” perspective. Nearly a minute goes by without a significant strike landing, and then they crash together and drill one another in the face with a heavy punch. Zheleznyakova tries to put three after it, and Croden has no answers while her face is starting to transform because of the impact of the shots she is absorbing.
Croden runs after the Russian, chasing her around the cage to try to punch her. She does not let Zheleznyakova off the hook, busting her nose open in the midst of her punch salvos. Zheleznyakova turns tail and runs away, forcing Croden to eventually slow Zheleznyakova down by tying her up. Croden looks for a body lock and a trip takedown, but Zheleznyakova is able to stay on her feet. Zheleznyakova breaks free, and she beans the Canadian with a right hand flush on the temple. Both beaks are leaking, and Croden pays it no mind as she rushes forward to attack. Croden nails her foe with two elbows, and Zheleznyakova tries to run away but is trapped. The Russian grabs the fence to prevent a takedown, with Valel screaming at her to knock that off. On her second effort, Croden throws her down and knees her in the face and thigh on the way back up. Croden leans on her opponent, sneaking in elbows. Zheleznyakova pushes her back with her fists, so Croden slaps her in the face with the instep of her foot as the round wraps.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Croden
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Croden
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Croden

Round 3
Croden greets her opponent with raised arms to hug her, and then the last round begins. Zheleznyakova pumps out a one-two that shakes Croden up and instantly re-bloodies her nose again, and she sits in the pocket to jack her in the jaw with a left before circling away. Zheleznyakova bounces her way forward behind her jab, slipping back to dodge every counter. Croden lumbers ahead slinging a left hook, and she shells up to block a one-two but is nailed with three more punches when she tries to clinch. Zheleznyakova breaks off and turns to run and reset on her own terms, but Croden catches up with her and clinches her. Croden stays tight until Zheleznyakova shoves her away and pins her down with a one-two. Zheleznyakova swipes out with subsequent hooks when Croden follows her recklessly, but it is a trap for the Canadian. Croden ducks down to surprise Zheleznyakova with a tackling takedown, and Zheleznyakova grabs the fence to improve her position and stand back up while Croden’s team bellows about the uncalled foul.
In the meantime, Croden starts to hook up a standing arm-triangle choke, and Zheleznyakova tugs with both hands on the fencing to take some of the leverage out of it. Croden topples over with the choke to put Zheleznyakova flat on her back, and she releases the sub to start beating the Russian down with left hands and a questionable knee while Zheleznyakova was standing. Valel calls for a replay due to the strike, and Croden continues pressuring the increasingly bloodied Zheleznyakova in a vicious clinch exchange. Croden frames off with elbows and occasionally slashes them out to damage her opponent, and Zheleznyakova breaks off. Croden runs towards her and tackles her to the floor, climbing directly in mount so she can bash Zheleznyakova with elbows. Zheleznyakova sits up to try to turn things around but only gives her back up. Croden unloads with a final barrage of elbows and fists, but time runs out before she can secure the stoppage she was seeking.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Croden (29-28 Croden)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Croden (29-28 Croden)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Croden (29-28 Croden)

The Official Result
Melissa Croden def. Darya Zheleznyakova via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 12, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Melissa Croden

Angelo picks Melissa Croden but is cautious, acknowledging Daria is better than given credit for. He notes Melissa is the more technical striker and physically stronger, with a grappling plan B. He warns that Daria has power and could cause problems if Melissa gets tagged.

"I'm going to pick Melissa here, but I would be very careful because I think Daria is a lot better than people are giving her credit for."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 14, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Melissa Croden

Big Brady picks Melissa Croden, emphasizing her nasty top game and clinch work. He criticizes Daria Zhelezniakova's poor ground game and takedown defense, noting she was submitted by Eileen Perez and TKO'd by Mullins. Brady believes if Croden takes the fight to the ground, she will finish with ground and pound, predicting a second-round TKO.

second round TKO
"Give me Melissa Croden to win. I'll take Melissa Croden to win by second round TKO."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 15, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Melissa Croden

Cody picks Melissa Croden, citing her ability to mix in takedowns and the Canadian crowd support. He notes that both fighters are similar but Croden may edge it with wrestling and home advantage. He expects a close decision.

split decision prop
"I got Croin, but it's another fight that I would not be surprised to hear judge one scores it, judge two scores it, and then the judge three is the deciding factor."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Apr 17, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Melissa Croden

Connor picks Croden because she is more composed and determined than Zhelezniakova, who is a steady pot-shotter without the footwork or wrestling defense to stop a determined opponent. He notes that Croden can walk into strikes but isn't deterred, and her physicality should overwhelm Zhelezniakova if she fights smart.

Croden opened at -150, now -153; Zhelezniakova opened at +130, now +133
"Croton running at her for takedowns might work. Probably."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Melissa Croden

James picks Melissa Croden to win via round three TKO. He expects Croden to weather early storms and take over late with her pressure and wrestling. He notes Zhelezniakova's camp issues and poor ground game.

"Melissa Cronin to win in round three is my official prediction."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 14, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Melissa Croden

The host expects Croden to be competitive in the striking but thinks she will clinch up, take the fight to the ground, and look for a submission. He highlights Croden's physicality and BJJ brown belt, and believes Zhelezniakova struggles against heavy grapplers. He recommends a sprinkle on the submission prop at plus 625.

Croden by submission at +625
"I think it's just a matter of time before Croden gets to a spot where she can threaten with the submission, which currently as of right now on BetOnline sits around plus 625."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 15, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Melissa Croden

Paul also leans towards Croden, expecting a close decision. He notes that Daria tends to bleed and that Croden may benefit from the judges. He likes the split decision prop.

split decision prop
"Big- time splitty possibilities fight ends in split decision plus 500. Croin by split or majority decision plus 950."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Apr 17, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Melissa Croden

Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Croden is like a less skilled version of Jasmine Jasudavicius but still knows how to implement her game. He points out that Zhelezniakova is a steady pot-shotter who lacks the tools to prevent a determined opponent from taking her out of her game, and Croden's physicality should be enough.

Croden opened at -150, now -153; Zhelezniakova opened at +130, now +133
"Croton running at her for takedowns might work. Probably."
Decision R3 5:00
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Melissa Croden 0 22 of 74 29% 56 of 109 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:44
Luana Santos 0 12 of 24 50% 93 of 110 3 of 7 42% 1 0 9:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Melissa Croden 0 7 of 27 25% 21 of 41 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:44
Luana Santos 0 10 of 13 76% 33 of 37 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:51
2 Melissa Croden 0 10 of 21 47% 30 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Luana Santos 0 2 of 8 25% 14 of 23 1 of 2 50% 1 0 3:41
3 Melissa Croden 0 5 of 26 19% 5 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Luana Santos 0 0 of 3 0% 46 of 50 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:49
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Melissa Croden 22 of 74 29% 9 of 53 7 of 8 6 of 13 18 of 69 4 of 5 0 of 0
Luana Santos 12 of 24 50% 6 of 16 4 of 5 2 of 3 10 of 20 2 of 3 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Melissa Croden 7 of 27 25% 1 of 17 4 of 5 2 of 5 4 of 23 3 of 4 0 of 0
Luana Santos 10 of 13 76% 5 of 7 3 of 4 2 of 2 8 of 10 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Melissa Croden 10 of 21 47% 6 of 14 2 of 2 2 of 5 9 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0
Luana Santos 2 of 8 25% 1 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 1 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 1
3 Melissa Croden 5 of 26 19% 2 of 22 1 of 1 2 of 3 5 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Luana Santos 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Melissa Croden vs. Luana Santos
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Odds: Santos (-130); Croden (+110)

Round 1
Making a stop off in the women’s bantamweight division, attention shifts to an interesting stylistic clash pitting a striker against a lady who likes to submit opponents by any means necessary. Santos (9-2, 4-1 UFC) at 25 years of age will clock in significantly younger than 34-year-old Canuck Croden (7-2, 1-0 UFC), and perhaps because of this, the odds are slightly in the Brazilian’s favor. Taking charge of this 135-pound affair will be referee Kerry Hatley, who stands back to let the two bump fists.
The ladies stay at kickboxing range to start the fight, taking turns to land strikes on one another. Santos loops her left hook at her opponent several times, marking up Croden’s nose in the first minute of the match. Croden sticks her back with straight lefts and is prepared to stuff a takedown shot, doing so when Santos shoots. Santos bull-rushes her and tackles her to the ground with a partial head-and-arm throw, and she lands in scarf hold position with her left arm wrapped around the Canadian’s neck. With her free right hand, Santos smacks Croden in the forehead repeatedly. Croden tries to muscle her way out of the position, and Hatley warns Santos for grabbing the glove to keep her foe grounded.
Slowly and incredibly smoothly, Croden slips her neck out of danger, sliding around to Santos’ back. Santos walks off the fence to get back to her feet, and she gets out of the tie-up and walks into a body kick. The Brazilian books it towards her adversary, latching onto a clinch with hopes of chaining it into a body lock. Santos stays pressed onto Croden, nullifying her and peppering her with the occasional elbow. Croden turns her about and knees her back much harder, spamming them to the midsection until she considers her own single-leg effort at the 10-second clapper. She does not get it as the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Santos
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Santos
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Santos

Round 2
They clap hands to start off the second stanza, and Croden pops forward to get off a quick calf kick. Croden jabs and sways to avoid a counter, but Santos steps forward and tags her with a right hand. When Santos is about to spin for something, Croden pushes out a front kick that disrupts it entirely. Santos settles herself and dodges a high kick, but there is something that Croden likes about that particular strike because she fires it off a few more times to bang into Santos’ raised guard. Santos is sick of dealing with those kicks, so she walks her down and bullies her into a clinch. Croden frames off with elbows to the forehead, and she thwarts the first takedown effort from the Brazilian in the process. Santos manages to hurl Croden arse-over-tea-kettle to plant the Canadian flat on her back, and she climbs into top position.
Croden locks down her foe by hooking her arm around Santos’ preventing her from advancing or getting off any noteworthy offense. Santos methodically climbs through into half guard, but the butterfly hooks from Croden bring her back into the guard. Santos prefers to smother rather than strike, while Croden is looking for any small opportunity to do something, anything, from her back. Croden’s elbows may be the most effective strikes since the fight went horizontal, and Santos presses tightly chest-to-chest until Croden looks for a body triangle and push off to stand. Santos drops back and snatches up a heel hook, but she does not have her legs wrapped above the knee, so there is no tight submission in play. The grueling round ends in this position.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Santos
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Santos
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Santos

Round 3
One final high-five from the bantamweights kicks off the last round, with Croden slowly advancing towards her opponent without getting reckless. Croden flashes her jab and pitches a low kick that cannot get grabbed, and suddenly switches stances to let fly a lead-leg high kick. Santos parries it and clinches, and her first effort for an outside trip fails. Croden muscles her way off the fence, and she walks the Brazilian down and lays into her with a line of punches and a few low kicks. The first counter trip from Santos comes up short, but her second, another scarf hold-slash-head-and-arm throw puts Croden feebly on her back. Santos clings to the scarf hold position, ignoring Croden’s legs bucking behind her while she imposes her weight to crush on Croden’s face and neck.
Santos paws a few meaningless punches off the forehead that are more like tapping her on the head than actually intent on causing damage, and Croden’s bucks and kicks with all her might. Santos continues leaning on Croden’s face, doing practically zero damage but racking up control time. It is a miserable round to watch, and likely even worse for the hapless Croden. Before time runs out, Santos sits up and lifts an arm to scream to the crowd about her impending victory. When the 15-minute contest does mercifully conclude, Santos shouts and celebrates as if she just won the Super Bowl.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Santos (30-27 Santos)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Santos (30-27 Santos)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Santos (30-27 Santos)

The Official Result
Luana Santos def. Melissa Croden via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
Expert Picks (4)
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Luana Santos

Cody leans Santos, citing her youth and improvements. He thinks her takedown defense and striking are better, but acknowledges Croden's strength. He is not confident and calls it a pass, but picks Santos for the show.

"I'm going to take Luana Santos."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Luana Santos

Connor agrees with Santos, citing her youth (25) and potential. He notes that Croden looked robotic but dedicated in her last win, but Santos has more dynamic entries and takedowns. He believes Santos can surprise Croden early.

"I think I probably have to pick Santos. She seems like she has some dynamic entries and takedowns."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Luana Santos

Paul confidently picks Santos, citing the Brazilian vs Canadian narrative and Santos's superior grappling. He notes Croden's takedown defense issues and thinks Santos will control the fight.

"Luana Santos is the pick. Easy."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Luana Santos

Zane picks Santos, noting her dynamic entries and takedowns. He contrasts her quick start against Lisboa with Croden's slow start in the same matchup. He believes Santos can take over early before Croden warms up. He also notes that Croden is 34 and unlikely to improve significantly.

Odds: Santos opened -150, now -125; Croden opened +130, now +105. Zane thinks Santos deserves more love.
"Santos went out there and just immediately started dominating in her fight at lisboa. So yeah, santos is the pick."
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Melissa Croden 1 99 of 175 56% 148 of 230 2 of 3 66% 0 0 5:05
Tainara Lisboa 0 42 of 92 45% 63 of 115 2 of 8 25% 0 0 2:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Melissa Croden 0 27 of 57 47% 35 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Tainara Lisboa 0 25 of 56 44% 34 of 66 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:04
2 Melissa Croden 1 33 of 57 57% 58 of 83 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:45
Tainara Lisboa 0 13 of 26 50% 21 of 34 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:52
3 Melissa Croden 0 39 of 61 63% 55 of 81 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:07
Tainara Lisboa 0 4 of 10 40% 8 of 15 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:23
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Melissa Croden 99 of 175 56% 74 of 141 12 of 16 13 of 18 57 of 108 13 of 20 29 of 47
Tainara Lisboa 42 of 92 45% 23 of 70 18 of 21 1 of 1 23 of 70 19 of 22 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Melissa Croden 27 of 57 47% 16 of 41 5 of 7 6 of 9 26 of 53 1 of 4 0 of 0
Tainara Lisboa 25 of 56 44% 13 of 43 11 of 12 1 of 1 17 of 48 8 of 8 0 of 0
2 Melissa Croden 33 of 57 57% 23 of 45 6 of 8 4 of 4 21 of 36 7 of 10 5 of 11
Tainara Lisboa 13 of 26 50% 7 of 19 6 of 7 0 of 0 5 of 17 8 of 9 0 of 0
3 Melissa Croden 39 of 61 63% 35 of 55 1 of 1 3 of 5 10 of 19 5 of 6 24 of 36
Tainara Lisboa 4 of 10 40% 3 of 8 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 5 3 of 5 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Melissa Croden vs. Tainara Lisboa
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Odds: Lisboa (-125); Croden (+105)

Round 1
For the past two years, the UFC has shipped up to Canada twice. This is the latter trip, a Fight Night in Vancouver, and it is a bit of a mixed bag. The final seven (with an asterisk) fights on the lineup will feature a Canadian against a foreign adversary, as is the custom for the promotion as of late to set up a plethora of local competitors against those from another country. Recently, the home country fighters have fared well, but the numbers may not be on their side tonight. Of the 26 athletes plying their trades tonight, 16 of them lost their last bout while four are on losing streaks. Twelve combatants hold UFC records of .500 or lower, although there are a pair of newcomers to the promotion on the billing including one in the curtain jerker here. At 135 pounds, “Scare” Croden (6-2, 0-0 UFC)—as far as name-based nicknames go, this is a good one—makes her first walk to the cage on home soil against Brazil’s Lisboa (7-3, 2-1 UFC). The two ladies will be joined in the cage by referee John Cooper, who steps back as the two clap hands together. It’s showtime.
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After a brief feeling-out process, the Canadian starts work on the leg of the “Thai Panther.” She lands kicks on the inside and out, and Lisboa fires back with a short, crisp combination of punches. Croden flicks out a jab and tosses a low kick behind it, and once more, Lisboa is ready for the counters. Croden chambers and releases a thudding body kick, and Lisboa catches it and smacks her in the face before releasing it. Croden rushes forward into a pair of knees, clinching up but ultimately getting bullied to the wall by the Brazilian. The two stall out, and the crowd already is showering the two with boos less than two minutes in. It could be because the Canadian’s back is to the wall, and not based on a relative lack of activity. Lisboa forces the break with an elbow, and she slips back and connects with a stern calf kick. Croden ducks down and lets go with a body kick, and the punches from the Brazilian whiz past her.
Croden slowly maneuvers her way forward, and Lisboa consistently connects with three or four punches every time she gets off. They clinch, and the fans start booing until the Canadian turns her foe around. They score short clinch strikes, and Lisboa lashes out with an elbow to break and slash open a cut under the local lady’s left eye. A Croden push kick intercepts a spinning Lisboa, and when Lisboa settles down, Croden jabs her in the face and rings her bell. Lisboa has to charge in to clinch and get her bearings, and Croden shoves her off and races in behind a pair of punches. Croden slips and moves a trio of punches to work her jab in, and her low kick does some work when Lisboa sits down on a hard right hand. When Croden tosses a naked body kick, Lisboa belts her in the nose with a right hand that opens up the Canadian’s nose. Lisboa stings her with a one-two, and Croden throws back recklessly. Lisboa stands her up, and although she eats a straight right on the way out, she lands the heavier of the two as the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lisboa
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Lisboa
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Lisboa

Round 2
The ladies touch ‘em up to start off the second stanza, and Lisboa takes to the center of the cage while Croden gets behind her jab. Lisboa throws caution to the wind and strings together a few punches that open up Croden’s nose again, and the leaking Canadian’s philtrum and mouth matches her red fight attire. Lisboa initiates the clinch and works the body with knees, and she trips her opponent and lands on top for a second. Croden quickly wall-walks her way upright and breaks free, and the blood is flowing out of her nostrils. Croden reaches forward and gets caught, and she calms herself and looses a head kick that smacks the Brazilian upside the head. Lisboa punches her way into a tie-up, and the crowd noise comes and goes in waves in support or disappointment depending on how the Canadian is faring—there are a lot of fans in the building for the first fight of the night.
Croden uses her opponent’s momentum against her, tripping Lisboa to her seat, although she cannot keep her there for long. Croden gets in close, and she manages to trip out Lisboa a second time. This time, she lands on top and starts bashing the Brazilian with a stream of right hands. Lisboa fights to her feet while under fire, and Croden is not about to let her off the hook and keeps working her over. When Lisboa splits, “Scare” puts a scare into her by charging with her arms extended. Croden strings punches into a low kick, and suddenly Lisboa does not seem to know what to do. The newcomer collides into her foe with her fists, knocking Lisboa to her seat. Lisboa lands on her back and sets up an armbar, so Croden calmly responds with knees to the shoulder until the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Croden
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Croden
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Croden

Round 3
Croden is fired up to start off the last round, and the fans feed her with energy as every time she lands, they cheer. Croden sticks and moves, potshotting Lisboa and getting out of harm’s way in time. Croden lunges in with three or four punches, and Lisboa’s counters hit nothing but air. Croden pounds her foe’s front leg, and Lisboa responds with a full-throated double-leg takedown attempt. The Brazilian completes it, but after about three seconds, Croden is back upright and turning Lisboa to her back on the chain links. A level change from Lisboa is answered by Croden lowering herself down and muscling “Thai Panther” to the floor through sheer force of will. Lisboa hunts for a sweep, so Croden replies with a cruel can opener on the back of the neck. Lisboa throws her legs up and rolls for an armbar, but she turns too far and gives Croden the opportunity to counter her with an irritating triangle choke position.
Croden decides to stand up, lording over Lisboa and pushing her legs out of the way to reclaim top position. When Lisboa turns to her knees in hopes of standing, Croden bashes her repeatedly in the side of the dome. Lisboa desperately looks for an armbar or something off her back, but the large Canadian pushes through it all without effort and climbs into half guard. The punches and elbows from Croden briefly open the guard up, but she decides not to take it and instead uses her weight and pressure to keep Lisboa on her back. Croden clubs Lisboa with ground strikes, and Lisboa somehow manages to stand up despite taking all that damage. Croden walks her down, busting her in the chops and not letting her have a moment to breathe. Lisboa wilts, falling to her back while under attack, and Cooper knows that she is about out of this fight. “Scare” Croden puts the hurt on Lisboa with high-amplitude hammerfists, and as she keeps pounding on the Brazilian like a drum, Cooper has no choice but to step in. Just like that, Canadians are ahead tonight, with Croden prevailing in her promotional debut by handing the 34-year-old her first knockout loss.

The Official Result
Melissa Croden def. Tainara Lisboa R3 4:32 via TKO (Punches)
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
No clear pick

Angelo discusses both fighters but does not make a clear pick. He notes that Iasmin Lucindo (the originally scheduled opponent) is a decent striker with takedown defense issues, and Melissa Croden is a tough striker making her UFC debut. He says he will fade both fighters for fantasy purposes, indicating no strong lean either way.

"I'm probably going to fade her as a UFC debut. I'm also going to fade Iasmin Lucindo... So I'm going to fade them both."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Melissa Croden

Big Brady likes Melissa Croden's toughness and forward pressure. He notes she is strong in the clinch, has sneaky grappling, and good ground and pound. He is not impressed by Tainara Lisboa's striking and thinks Croden can push her against the cage and potentially finish. He prefers Croden at the underdog price but still picks her to win by decision.

"I am liking Croin here. I liked her much better at an underdog price tag, but I think people are kind of seeing what I'm seeing... give me Melissa Croin. I'll take her to win this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 15, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Tainara Lisboa

Cody picks Lisboa, citing her striking advantage and experience. He notes Croden has retired twice and is making her UFC debut at 34. Lisboa has fought better competition. Cody expects Lisboa to win by decision or late stoppage.

"I decided to go the other way and go Liz Boa, but I got nothing really behind it."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Melissa Croden

Connor picks Croden, noting her good directional game and ability to clinch and be violent. He points out that Lisboa has poor footwork and distance management, making her vulnerable to Croden's clinch entries. Connor believes Croden will be able to crash in at will and dominate in the clinch.

Croden opened +235, now -122; Lisboa opened -275, now +102. Connor is glad the odds are moving in the right direction.
"I have to take rodent. That's really it."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Oct 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Melissa Croden

James sees value on Croden as an underdog, noting her striking skills and potential grappling advantage if Lisboa shoots takedowns. He worries about Croden's boxing defense but believes the Canadian crowd could help in a close decision. James predicts a close decision win for Croden.

"I'm gonna pick Melissa Cronin in this fight in a very close fight. I'm going to say it goes to a decision. I'm going to say it's a close decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Melissa Croden

The host expects Croden to make an emphatic debut, utilizing her physicality, top control, and Muay Thai against the cage. He believes she will be far stronger than Lisboa and will grind out a finish in the second or third round.

finish in round 2 or 3
"I think this will be an emphatic statement making debut for Croin who I think who can utilize her physicality, top control, and even her Muay Thai against the cage."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 15, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Melissa Croden

Paul leans Croden, citing her size and clinch work. He notes she can control the fight against the cage. However, he has low conviction and says he'll wait for weigh-ins.

"I'm leaning Croin."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Oct 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Tainara Lisboa

The MMA Guru picks Tainara Lisboa (referred to as Taila Santos) over Melissa Croden. He notes that Lisboa is a kickboxer with decent submission wins, while Croden has fought lesser competition. He acknowledges Lisboa's losses but justifies them by pointing to her experience against top fighters like Valentina Shevchenko in kickboxing. He leans towards Lisboa but admits there's not much to go off.

"I'm going to go with Taila Santos. She was a kickboxer, but she's also got some decent submission wins against some okay opponents."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Melissa Croden

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Croden. He notes that Croden knows what she wants to do (clinch and punish) and that Lisboa cannot get out of the way. Zane expects Croden to achieve clinches easily and be violent from there.

"Same. She's got a good directional game. She knows what she's aiming for."